INVESTOR UPDATE - Jefferies
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
SAFE HARBOR DDR considers portions of the information in this presentation to be forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, both as amended, with respect to the Company’s expectation for future periods. Although the Company believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are based upon reasonable assumptions, it can give no assurance that its expectations will be achieved. For this purpose, any statements contained herein that are not historical fact may be deemed to be forward-looking statements. There are a number of important factors that could cause our results to differ materially from those indicated by such forward-looking statements, including, among other factors, local conditions such as supply of space or a reduction in demand for real estate in the area; competition from other available space; dependence on rental income from real property; the loss of, significant downsizing of or bankruptcy of a major tenant; constructing properties or expansions that produce a desired yield on investment; our ability to buy or sell assets on commercially reasonable terms; our ability to complete acquisitions or dispositions of assets under contract; our ability to secure equity or debt financing on commercially acceptable terms or at all; our ability to enter into definitive agreements with regard to our financing and joint venture arrangements or our failure to satisfy conditions to the completion of these arrangements; and the success of our capital recycling strategy. For additional factors that could cause the results of the Company to differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements, please refer to the Company’s Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2014, as amended. The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly revise these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances that arise after the date hereof. 2
DDR OVERVIEW AND INVESTMENT THESIS $17B 407 117MSF 95.5% AUM # PROPERTIES TOTAL GLA LEASED RATE • Invest in market dominant prime power centers located in large and supply-constrained markets occupied by high credit quality retailers that cater to the consumer’s desire for value and convenience • Experienced management team with diverse retail and investment backgrounds, shareholder centric, and free from conflicts of interest • Unique, scalable operating platform that drives strong and consistent results and creates incremental value • Focused on NAV growth and long-term value creation • Prudent risk profile with free cash flow to reinvest in the portfolio and room to further grow the dividend 4
DDR GREW FFO BY 18% DESPITE SELLING NEARLY 200 ASSETS SINCE YEAR-END 2012 OPERATING FFO GROWTH, 2013 - 2015 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% FRT DDR REG WRI EQY KIM RPAI Growth calculated using the midpoint of most recent 2015 FFO guidance range. 5
THE CORRELATION BETWEEN MULTIPLE AND GROWTH SUGGESTS ROOM FOR MULTIPLE EXPANSION 2015 FFO Multiple FRT 25x REG 22x 19x KIM RPAI WRI 16x KRG DDR BRX 13x 10x -‐10% -‐5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 2014 - 2015E FFO Growth DDR IS ~4 TURNS BELOW THE WARRANTED VALUATION, BASED ON YOY FFO GROWTH 6
LOWER RISK PROFILE ALLOWS FOR HIGHER PAYOUT RATIO GOING FORWARD CURRENT FFO PAYOUT RATIO 80% 70% Peer Average = 62% 60% 56% 53% 49% 50% 47% 40% 30% 23% 20% 10% 0% EQY RPAI KIM WRI REG FRT KRG BRX DDR DDR DDR DDR DDR 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Bloomberg, Company Reports; 2015 payout ratio calculated using the midpoint of FFO guidance range 7
CAPITAL ALLOCATION IS DDR’S TOP PRIORITY ACQUIRED OVER 40% OF YE09 GROSS ASSET VALUE 43% $2.0 ACQUISITIONS DISPOSITIONS $1.5 SINCE THE BEGINNING OF 2010, DDR HAS TURNED OVER MORE THAN 65% $1.0 OF ITS GROSS ASSET VALUE $0.5 BILLIONS $0.0 -$0.5 36% -$1.0 29% 25% -$1.5 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD SOLD 25% OF YE09 GROSS ASSET VALUE 8
INTENSE FOCUS ON INCREASING RENT PSF HAS YIELDED ATTRACTIVE GROWTH RENT PER SQUARE FOOT $14.50 4.4% CAGR $14.29 $14.00 $14.15 $13.50 $13.53 $13.00 $12.85 $12.50 $12.45 $12.00 $11.50 2011 2012 2013 2014 1Q15 9
PORTFOLIO QUALITY UPGRADE TRANSLATES INTO INCREASING PRICING POWER 10% 12% 96% > 95% LEASED BLENDED SPREAD LEASED % OVER 280BP OF PRICING POWER 10% 8% 95% < 95% 8% 6% LEASED 94% 6% 4% 93% 4% 2% 92% 2% 0% 0% 91% 2014 LEASING SPREAD 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 10
DDR’S MANAGEMENT TEAM HAS DECADES OF OPERATIONS EXPERIENCE EXECUTIVE TITLE YEARS IN INDUSTRY EXECUTIVE TITLE YEARS IN INDUSTRY Senior Vice President - Senior Vice President - Peripheral Development 28 Leasing - Western Region 18 Ken Stern Anthony Vodicka Senior Vice President - Senior Vice President - Leasing 23 Leasing 15 David Dieterle Bryan Zabell Senior Vice President - Vice President - Leasing - Eastern Region 22 National Accounts 13 James Bold Bill Kern 11
SHAREHOLDER-FRIENDLY CORPORATE GOVERNANCE FOSTERS ETHICAL LEADERSHIP AND TRANSPARENCY BEST PRACTICES NOTABLE UPDATES P COMPENSATION DICTATED BY LONG TERM SHAREHOLDER VALUE CREATION – NOT FFO – David Oakes has joined the board of directors P EQUITY COMPENSATION > CASH COMPENSATION – Four board members did not stand for reelection in 2015 P NON-STAGGERED BOARD P MAJORITY INDEPENDENT DIRECTORS – Alexander Otto, whose family owns 17% of DDR’s P SEPARATE CHAIRMAN AND CEO outstanding stock, joined DDR’s board of directors in 2015 P NO POISON PILL – DDR achieved 92% approval in 2014’s Say-On-Pay vote to P NO SHAREHOLDER RIGHTS PLAN approve the compensation of named executive officers P SIX OF THE NINE DIRECTORS ARE INDEPENDENT 12
OVER THE LAST 20 YEARS, REITS OUTPERFORMED A 60/40 STOCKS AND BONDS ALLOCATION BY 280 BP TWENTY YEAR ANNUALIZED RETURNS BY ASSET CLASS, 1995 – 2014 14% 12% 12% 10% 10% 9% 8% 6% 6% 6% 5% 6% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 0% REITs S&P 500 60/40 Stocks Bonds Gold Oil EAFE Homes Average Inflation & Bonds Investor Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Guide to the Markets, U.S. 2Q 2015 13
HISTORICAL DATA DOES NOT VALIDATE FEARS SURROUNDING THE CORRELATION BETWEEN REITS AND RISING INTEREST RATES CUMULATIVE Δ (BP) 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD IMPLIED CAP RATE 1986 - ‘87 + 193 0 RISING RATES ARE DRIVEN BY A STRENGTHENING ECONOMY AND HEALTHY CONSUMER 1993 - ‘94 + 248 - 40 FUNDAMENTALS. 1998 - ‘00 + 204 - 10 2003 - '07 + 149 - 260 2012 - ‘14 + 110 - 60 The correlation between DDR’s returns and the 10-Year Treasury from 1994 - 2014 is less than 3%. Source: Cohen & Steers, “What History Tells Us About Rising Rates” 14
THE POWER CENTER THESIS
NEVER UNDERESTIMATE THE U.S. CONSUMER U.S. RETAIL SALES $500 $450 $400 $350 IN BILLIONS $300 4.4% $250 $200 $150 Long-Term Annual Growth $100 $50 $0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Source: US Census Bureau 16
JOBS AND WAGES MOST INFLUENCE THE US CONSUMER OVER THE LONG TERM… 83% CORRELATION BETWEEN WAGE GROWTH AND RETAIL SALES 10% Wage Growth, Y/Y Retail Sales - SA ex-Autos and Gas Y/Y % 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 83% CORRELATION BETWEEN EMPLOYMENT GROWTH AND RETAIL SALES 4% 10% Non-Farm Payrolls, Y/Y Retail Sales - SA ex-Autos and Gas Y/Y % 8% 2% 6% 0% 4% 2% -2% 0% -2% -4% -4% -6% -6% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Credit Suisse Equity Research (Bureau of Labor Statistics, Credit Suisse estimates, company data) 17
…AND WILL BENEFIT FROM HISTORICALLY LOW UNDEREMPLOYMENT AND HIGH CONSUMPTION SEASONALLY ADJUSTED UNDEREMPLOYMENT REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES PER CAPITA UNDEREMPLOYMENT: HIGHLY-SKILLED LABOR EMPLOYED IN LOW-PAYING JOBS OR WORKING BELOW CAPACITY 18% $36 17% UPWARD OUTPACING PRE- PRESSURE ON RECESSION 16% WAGE GROWTH HIGHS $35 15% 14% $34 THOUSANDS 13% 12% $33 11% 10% NATURAL RATE OF UNDEREMPLOYMENT 9% $32 8% 7% $31 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 E 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 E Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Goldman Sachs Investment Research, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 18
IMPROVING CONSUMER BALANCE SHEETS IMPLY ADDITIONAL SPENDING CAPACITY HOUSEHOLD FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS RATIO DEBT AND FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS A PERCENT OF DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME 19% 18% 17% 16% APART FROM 4Q12, THE CURRENT FINANCIAL OBLIGATION RATIO IS THE LOWEST IT HAS BEEN 33 YEARS 15% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Federal Reserve Board, Bank of America Merrill Lynch 19
RELATIVE TO TOTAL U.S. RETAIL SALES, DDR’S TOP TENANTS HAVE WON THE MARKET SHARE BATTLE THROUGHOUT THE CYCLES TOTAL SALES GROWTH (INDEXED TO 100) 450 US RETAIL TJX 400 WMT TGT DKS WFM BBBY PETM 350 KSS BBY ROST 300 250 200 150 100 50 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20
OUR TOP TENANTS ARE WINNING THE MARKET SHARE BATTLE 100% Value/Convenience: Discounters, Warehouse Clubs, Dollar Stores, Specialty Grocers 80% Department stores are losing market 60% share at more than 2.5% annually 40% 20% Dept. Stores: JCPenney, Macy’s, Nordstrom, Bloomingdale’s, Saks, Dillard’s, Bon-Ton 0% 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 65% Traditional Grocers: Ahold, Delhaize, Kroger, Publix, Supervalu, Safeway 55% 70% of DDR’s wholly-owned Prime assets contain a grocery component 45% Non-Traditional Grocers: Walmart, Target, Costco, BJ’s, Sam’s Club, Whole Foods, The Fresh Market, Trader Joe’s, Sprouts Farmers Market, Fresh Thyme 35% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: US Census Bureau 21
CONSUMERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD THEIR GROCERY SHOPPING ACROSS MULTIPLE CHANNELS EXPECTED CHANGE IN STORE COUNT, 2013 – 2018E EXPECTED CHANGE IN MARKET SHARE, 2013 – 2018E 100 85 20,886 65 61 50 31 - WHOLE FOODS, SAM’S CLUB, TRADER JOE’S, DOLLAR GENERAL, (50) THE FRESH COSTCO, ALDI, DOLLAR TREE, MARKET, ETC. WALMART, ETC. SAVE-A-LOT, ETC. ETC. BASIS POINTS (100) (150) 804 668 (200) 320 (250) (300) (303) (576) (350) DOLLAR, DRUG, WHOLESALE, ORGANIC LIMITED TRADITIONAL ORGANIC WHOLESALE, LIMITED DOLLAR, DRUG, TRADITIONAL CONVENIENCE SUPERCENTERS ASSORTMENT SUPERMARKETS SUPERCENTER ASSORTMENT CONVENIENCE SUPERMARKETS STORES STORES Source: JLL, Willard Bishop. Traditional supermarkets are defined as stores offering groceries, meat, and produce, with 15,000 - 60,000 SKUs and at least $2M in annual sales. 22
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT DDR’S PUERTO RICO PORTFOLIO 11% Puerto Rico as a percentage of DDR’s pro rata base rent 60% Estimated value of the top three Prime + malls as a % of the total portfolio… >$500psf …In-line tenant sales performance of those top three enclosed malls 3.6% Debt coupon on the 7-year, non-recourse loan encumbering Plaza Escorial completed in 2014 10 / 15 Prime + or Prime assets, representing 90% of portfolio value 70% Base rent derived from U.S. based credit-worth tenants +2.4% Total NOI growth from 2013 to 2014 4.9 Years Weighted average lease term remaining 23
WHILE DEMAND IS STRONG, SUPPLY OF POWER CENTERS PER CAPITA IS DECLINING U.S. POWER CENTER GLA PER CAPITA 3.0 2.5 POWER CENTER GLA PER CAPITA HAS DECREASED BY 2% SINCE 2010 AFTER GROWING NEARLY 5X SINCE 1975 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 24
SHOPPING CENTERS ARE EXPERIENCING LITTLE NEW DEVELOPMENT ON AN ABSOLUTE AND RELATIVE BASIS Construction lending remains restrained as Basel III forces banks to hold 50% more capital for a construction loan NEW DELIVERIES AS A % OF EXISTING STOCK 2.0% 1.5% EVEN A SMALLER % MEET THE '05 - '08 1.0% DEFINITION OF A POWER CENTER '09 - '12 '13 - '14 0.5% 0.0% APARTMENTS INDUSTRIAL OFFICE ALL SHOPPING CENTERS 25
KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM MEETINGS AT ICSC RECON THEME #1: RETAILERS CONTINE TO TRADE DOWN TO OFF-PRICE AND VALUE CONCEPTS Macy’s Backstage, F21 Red, Whole Food’s value, and Bloomingdale’s outlet have been added to compete with TJ Maxx, Ross, and Burlington THEME #2: OUTLET BRANDS ARE EXPANDING INTO POWER CENTERS FOR MORE DESIRABLE CO-TENANCY, CONVENIENCE Nike Factory, J Crew Outlet, and Gap Outlet, in addition to traditional mall tenants like Forever 21 THEME #3: CAP RATES IN BOTH CORE AND SECONDARY MARKETS CONTINUE TO DECLINE Power centers with and without grocery anchors continue to trade sub-6% THEME #4: NON-TRADITIONAL BUYERS OF SHOPPING CENTERS CONTINUE TO EMERGE Interested parties include traditional grocery retailers, power center tenants, and B mall landlords THEME #5: THE RESURGENCE IN SMALL SHOP CONCEPTS IS CONCENTRATED IN FITNESS AND FAST CASUAL New burger, pizza, and cycle concepts, many of which are mom-and-pop shops, are spurring demand 26
NEW STORE OPENING PLANS CONTINUE TO BE ROBUST BASED ON RECENT MEETINGS RETAILER PREFERRED FOOTPRINT (SF) PLANNED OPENINGS TIMELINE, AND OTHER NOTABLE ITEMS: Walmart Neighborhood Market 50,000 250 Looking to open 250 stores in 2015 and 200 stores in 2016 Aldi 18,000 125 Intending to add 500 new stores over the next 4 years Panera 4,300 110 Looking to continue to open 110 stores annually Five Below 7,500 85 Their next new market will be in Los Angeles Famous Footwear 5,000 55 Annual openings of 55 stores will continue through 2017 Costco 140,000 35 Looking to open 35 stores in 2015 following 35 openings in 2015 Burlington 50,000 30 Looking to open 30 stores in both 2015 and 2016 Nordstrom Rack 35,000 30 Looking to open 20 – 25 units annually Planet Fitness 20,000 30 Looking to open 30 stores within the next year J Crew Factory Outlet 6,000 25 Increasing presence in power centers as outlet construction has slowed Nike Factory Outlet 19,000 20 Increasing presence in power centers as outlet construction has slowed Total Wine 20,000 17 Projecting an additional 20 stores in 2016 and 2017 27
EXISTING RETAILERS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE THEIR FOOTPRINTS AND ROLL OUT NEW CONCEPTS RETAILER PREFERRED FOOTPRINT (SF) CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS OR ALTERNATIVE FOOTPRINT Dick’s Sporting Goods 100,000 Experimenting with a side-by-side concept featuring adjoined Field and Stream and Dick’s Sporting Goods Macy’s Backstage 35,000 Off-price concept will debut in September Nordstrom Rack 25,000 Smaller footprint will target smaller-metro markets, and will have a scaled down merchandise mix Bloomingdale’s Outlet 25,000 Outlet concept will open three units in 2015, and is planning an additional 3 – 6 units annually Whole Foods Value Concept 25,000 New concept targets millennial shoppers, offering a lower price point in smaller-format boxes Starbucks 15,000 Will open Starbucks Roastery stores in major metros over the next few years Charlotte Russe 10,000 Fast fashion Lemonpop concept targets whole family Payless ShoeSource 7,500 Large format concept contrasts with 3,000 SF average stores, and are looking top open 30 in 2015 Macy’s Micro Store 6,000 Small format concept will target street and off-mall locations, and will offer buy online, pick up in store Verizon Smart Store 5,000 Experiential store will include areas for music, gaming, tablets, phones, fitness tech, and workshops Panera 2,500 Panera To You concept provides limited seating, and plans to grow as a pick up/delivery café Massage Envy 2,000 Typical prototype is 3,500 SF; new stores are intended to reach hard-to-access markets Sally Beauty 1,750 Developing a new concept to compete with ULTA, including higher-end merchandise and salon chairs Starbucks 750 Will roll out their “express” stores in urban markets in 2016 28
NEW RETAILERS PROVIDE MOMENTUM IN THE SHOP AND BOX CATEGORIES RETAILER DESCRIPTION Active Ride Shop Sells skate clothing, shoes, and skateboards, and is targeting 3,500sf stores in CA, NV, AZ, TX, CO Air Time Trampoline park operator looking for 27,500sf Midwestern locations Cinepolis Mexico’s largest theater chain, expanding into the US; operating with luxury, traditional, and hybrid concepts Cycle Bar Instructor-led cycling workouts expanding nationwide through franchising, looking for 2,500sf spaces Jake’s Wayback Burgers Retro-style fast-food restaurant serving burgers and milkshakes, designed to compete with Five Guys Lucky’s Market Specialty grocer looking for 30,000sf spaces, run by the Wild Oats founders Midici Neapolitan Pizza Fast casual pizza concept looking for 4,000sf spaces, developed by the creators of Menchie’s MOD Pizza Fast casual pizza concept looking for 2,600sf spaces and planning to double their 45 store base by YE16 Pet Supermarket Competition to PetSmart and Petco, looking for 8,000sf spaces; plans to double store count to 300 in next 5 years Tin Drum Asiacafè Fast casual Asian concept started by the creators of Tropical Smoothie Cafe 29
TOP 20 TENANTS HAVE STRONG CREDIT PROFILES % OF % OF % OF % OF RATING (S&P / RATING (S&P / COMPANY TOTAL OWNED COMPANY TOTAL OWNED MOODY’S / FITCH) MOODY’S / FITCH) ABR GLA ABR GLA 1. TJX Companies 3.4% 3.9% A+ / A3 / NR 11. Gap / Old Navy / 1.6% 1.3% BBB- / Baa3 / BBB- Banana Republic 2. PetSmart 3.0% 2.5% B+ / NR / NR 12. Office Depot 1.5% 1.4% B- / B2 / NR 3. Bed Bath & 2.9% 3.0% A- / Baa1 / NR Beyond 13. Publix 1.4% 2.0% NR 4. Walmart 2.6% 5.1% AA / Aa2 / AA 14. Ulta 1.2% 0.7% NR 5. Kohl’s 2.4% 3.9% BBB / Baa1 / BBB+ 15. Ascena 1.1% 0.7% NR 6. Dick’s Sporting 2.2% 2.2% NR Goods 16. Kroger 1.1% 1.6% BBB / Baa2 / BBB 7. Ross Stores 2.0% 2.4% A- / A3 / NR 17. Barnes & Noble 1.0% 0.7% NR 8. Best Buy 2.0% 1.7% BB / Baa2 / BB 18. Jo-Ann 1.0% 1.2% B / Caa1 / NR 9. Michaels 1.8% 1.8% B+ / NR / NR 19. Lowe’s 1.0% 2.0% A- / A3 / NR 10. AMC Theatres 1.6% 0.9% B+ / NR / NR 20. Staples 0.9% 0.8% BBB- / Baa2 / BBB- Total 35.7% 39.8% 30
WHY WE ARE INVESTING IN POWER CENTERS GROCERY ANCHORED NEIGHBORHOOD METRIC POWER CENTERS CENTERS 1. SCALE = FLEXIBILITY >40 acres, >350ksf 10 - 20 acres, ~125ksf 2. CREDIT QUALITY >75% ABR from Nationals ~25% ABR from Nationals 3. COLLECTION RISK Low: National Tenants High: Local Tenants 4. TRADE AREA POPULATION 350k+ 200k- 5. ANCHOR LOSS IMPLICATIONS Minimal/Opportunity Disastrous 6. MARKET SHARE TREND Gaining Losing 7. SITE PLAN CONTROL Flexible Inflexible 8. ANNUAL ROLLOVER ~10% ~20% 9. ECONOMIES OF SCALE Relationships/Co-Tenancy Health of grocer is all that matters 10. MERCHANT TYPE Food, Service, Hardlines, Softlines, Entertainment, Mass Merchants, Home Food and Service 31
THE OCCUPANCY COST OF DDR’S TOP TENANTS HIGHLIGHT THE EFFICIENCY OF BRICK-AND-MORTAR OCCUPANCY COST 9.8% 10% GROSS SHIPPING COSTS / NET SALES 8% 6.5% 6.6% 6.7% 6.4% 6% 4.8% 4.1% 4.4% 3.8% 4% 2% 0% WFM ROST JWN PETM BBBY DKS TJX ULTA AMZN 32
POWER CENTER PRICE DISCOVERY Institutional quality power center transactions not involving DDR: DATE MARKET PRICE (MIL) PRICE PSF CAP RATE ANCHORS 4Q13 Austin 81 231 6.5% Home Depot, Best Buy, Marshalls, Chair King, Bed Bath & Beyond 4Q13 San Francisco 202 233 5.2% Lowe's, Costco, Kohl's, Toys R Us, TJ Maxx, Jo-Ann, Nordstrom Rack 4Q13 Seattle 165 344 5.2% Regal, Dick's Sporting Goods, LA Fitness, Ross, Marshalls 4Q13 Denver 116 276 6.4% 24 Hour Fitness, Dick's Sporting Goods, Best Buy, Sprouts 4Q13 Denver 124 190 6.5% JC Penney, AMC, Ross, REI, H&M, Staples, Forever 21 4Q13 Atlanta 53 284 5.7% Bed Bath & Beyond, Havertys, TJ Maxx, PetSmart 1Q14 Philadelphia 92 202 6.2% Home Depot, BJ’s Wholesale, Conway’s, PetSmart, Staples, Walgreens 3Q14 Los Angeles 260 776 5.0% Old Navy, Nordstrom Rack, Men’s Wearhouse, Marshalls 3Q14 Chicago 50 260 5.7% Fresh Farms, Babies R Us, Ross, Walgreens 3Q14 Wash. DC 88 540 4.3% Whole Foods, Michaels, Modell's, Gold's Gym, CVS 3Q14 Orlando 114 263 5.8% Kohl's, Ross, Bed Bath & Beyond, Regal, Sports Authority, Old Navy, Michaels 4Q14 Denver 86 174 6.0% Dick's, Kohl's, Office Depot, Petco, Sprouts 4Q14 Atlanta 55 248 5.3% Target (U), Publix, TJ Maxx, Office Depot, Dick's, PetSmart 4Q14 Charlotte 61 257 6.3% Marshalls, PetSmart, Old Navy, Best Buy, Office Max 1Q15 Minneapolis 107 230 6.0% Cub Foods, Kohl's, HomeGoods, TJM, Nordstrom Rack 1Q15 Los Angeles 187 591 5.5% Lowe's, Ross, Sports Authority, PetSmart, Ulta 1Q15 Los Angeles 72 760 5.9% Marshalls, PetSmart, Michaels 1Q15 Denver 57 236 5.7% Target, TJ Maxx, HomeGoods, Michaels, Golf Galaxy, PetSmart 2Q15 Oklahoma City 53 255 5.3% Walmart, Babies R Us, Nordstrom Rack, Ulta, Shoe Carnival, Kirkland’s 2Q15 Northern New Jersey 50 358 5.0% Nordstrom Rack, DSW, TJ Maxx, buybuyBaby, Cost Plus World Market, Ulta $2,073 $117 5.7% 33
PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT
~75% OF PORTFOLIO VALUE CONSISTS OF JUST 115 ASSETS (PRIME+ AND PRIME) Values shown at pro rata JOINT 7% OF VALUE 5% OF VALUE VENTURE 188 ASSETS 40 ASSETS WHOLLY OWNED NON-PRIME WHOLLY OWNED PRIME- 44% OF VALUE 14% OF VALUE 47 ASSETS WHOLLY OWNED PRIME+ 64 ASSETS WHOLLY OWNED PRIME 30% OF VALUE 68 ASSETS 35
DECONSTRUCTING THE PORTFOLIO: WHOLLY OWNED PRIME + INVESTMENT THESIS: Long-term hold METRIC AVERAGE JOINT VENTURE EST. CAP RATE 4.75% - 5.75% WHOLLY OWNED NON-PRIME # OF ASSETS 47 NOI CAGR (5 YEAR) > 3.0% VALUE ~ $105 M WHOLLY OWNED PRIME- 44% OF VALUE VALUE PSF ~ $270 WHOLLY OWNED PRIME+ SIZE ~ 500 KSF ABR PSF ~ $17.00 LEASED RATE ~ 95% WHOLLY OWNED PRIME TRADE AREA POPULATION ~ 650 K TRADE AREA HH INCOME ~ $90 K 36
DECONSTRUCTING THE PORTFOLIO: WHOLLY OWNED PRIME INVESTMENT THESIS: Long-term hold with a focus on upgrading merchandise mix and enhancing market dominance METRIC AVERAGE JOINT VENTURE EST. CAP RATE 6.0% - 6.5% WHOLLY OWNED NON-PRIME # OF ASSETS 68 NOI CAGR (5 YEAR) ~ 3.5% VALUE ~ $50 M WHOLLY OWNED PRIME- VALUE PSF ~ $195 WHOLLY OWNED PRIME+ SIZE ~ 330 KSF ABR PSF ~ $14.05 LEASED RATE ~ 93% 30% OF VALUE TRADE AREA POPULATION ~ 385 K WHOLLY OWNED PRIME TRADE AREA HH INCOME ~ $82 K 37
DECONSTRUCTING THE PORTFOLIO: WHOLLY OWNED PRIME - INVESTMENT THESIS: Evaluate for investment to increase growth profile or for short or medium term disposition METRIC AVERAGE JOINT VENTURE EST. CAP RATE 6.75% - 7.75% WHOLLY OWNED NON-PRIME # OF ASSETS 64 NOI CAGR (5 YEAR) ~ 3.0% 14% OF VALUE VALUE ~ $24 M WHOLLY OWNED VALUE PSF ~ $125 PRIME- WHOLLY OWNED PRIME+ SIZE ~ 260 KSF ABR PSF ~ $10.70 LEASED RATE ~ 93% WHOLLY OWNED PRIME TRADE AREA POPULATION ~ 290 K TRADE AREA HH INCOME ~ $71 K 38
DECONSTRUCTING THE PORTFOLIO: WHOLLY OWNED NON-PRIME INVESTMENT THESIS: Near-term disposition to mitigate risk METRIC AVERAGE JOINT 5% OF VALUE WHOLLY OWNED VENTURE EST. CAP RATE 7.50% - 8.25% NON-PRIME # OF ASSETS 40 NOI CAGR (5 YEAR) ~ -0.5% VALUE ~ $16 M WHOLLY OWNED PRIME- VALUE PSF ~ $90 WHOLLY OWNED PRIME+ SIZE ~ 235 KSF ABR PSF ~ $9.30 LEASED RATE ~ 88% WHOLLY OWNED PRIME TRADE AREA POPULATION ~ 270 K TRADE AREA HH INCOME ~ $68K 39
WHAT’S LEFT OF NON-PRIME? Values shown at pro rata $ in millions % OF NON-PRIME VALUE % OF # OF JOINT CATEGORY NON-PRIME STRATEGY VENTURES ASSETS 11% VALUE LEASE UP 13 40% Sell after lease up MARKETING FOR Currently in the market or under 18 21% MARKETING 21% LEASE UP SALE contract 40% DEBT 4 17% Sell at maturity SINGLE TENANT 5 12% Sell after renewal SINGLE TENANT JOINT VENTURES 57 11% 12% DEBT TOTALS 97 100% 17% 40
DISPOSITIONS: EVOLVING QUALITY 2011: 2012: EXITING DISTRESSED NON-CORE SALES PROPERTY Pine Ridge Square TYPES (Gaylord, MI) Tiffin Mall ~ 12% cap rate (Tiffin, OH) ~ 10% cap rate 2013: EXITING 2014: TAKING LOW GROWTH IN ADVANTAGE OF WEAK MARKETS PRICING Carlisle Commons ENVIRONMENT (Harrisburg, PA) Abernathy Square ~ 8% cap rate (Atlanta, GA) ~ 6% cap rate 41
THE EVOLUTION OF THE PORTFOLIO FROM SMALLER, LOWER QUALITY ASSETS INTO LARGE FORMAT PRIME POWER CENTERS CONTINUES # OF ASSETS AND TOTAL GLA (WHOLLY-OWNED) 375 350 # OF ASSETS 325 300 275 250 225 200 175 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 AVERAGE ASSET SIZE (WHOLLY-OWNED) 325 300 SF, IN 000s 275 250 -37% CHANGE IN # OF ASSETS 225 +61% CHANGE IN AVG ASSET SIZE 200 175 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 42
THE PORTFOLIO HAS MOVED UP THE QUALITY SPECTRUM (ADD) 2008 (LESS) (EQUALS) ACQUISITIONS / PORTFOLIO DISPOSITIONS CURRENT PORTFOLIO DEVELOPMENT ASSET COUNT 621 376 162 407 TOTAL SQUARE FEET (MIL) 119 49 47 117 AVERAGE SIZE 190,000 130,000 290,000 290,000 LEASED RATE 92.6% 86.1% 93.2% 95.5% RENT PSF $12.34 $11.02 $13.89 $14.02 POPULATION (TRADE AREA) 220,000 474,000 432,000 HH INCOME (TRADE AREA) $68,000 $82,000 $82,000 ORGANIC GROWTH OPPORTUNITY 43
THE PORTFOLIO HAS EXPERIENCED A DRAMATIC QUALITY UPGRADE SINCE 2010 CONSOLIDATED PORTFOLIO TOTAL PORTFOLIO 2010 2015 2010 2015 # OF ASSETS 348 219 LEASED RATE 91.2% 95.5% AVG ASSET SIZE (KSF) 202 323 RENT PSF $12.46 $14.02 AVG ASSET VALUE (MIL) $23 $49 ABR FROM TOP 50 MSAs 57% 77% CONSOLIDATED AS % TOTAL 81% 93% TRADE AREA POPULATION 359K 439K RETAILERS THAT HAVE RETAILERS THAT HAVE MOVED MOVED INTO DDR’S TOP 50 OUT OF DDR’S TOP 25 44
AGGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO REPOSITIONING WILL CONTINUE 2008 CURRENT TARGET TOTAL MSAs 174 106 90% Focused only on large growth markets OFFICE / INDUSTRIAL 7 0 0 Further simplification of the story ASSETS DOMESTIC B/C MALLS 10 0 0 Focused on only one property type We have also… Added Boston, Orlando, Minneapolis, and San Antonio to our top 20 markets Decreased the combined ABR from Buffalo and Detroit by $28 million, or 45% of total exposure 45
DDR HAS WOUND DOWN 15 JVS SINCE 2011 AND WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON FEWER, HIGH QUALITY PARTNERS JOINT VENTURES All figures in millions, except asset counts and percentages DDR # OF # PRIME +, OWNED BOOK PARTNER OWN % ASSETS PRIME ASSETS GLA VALUE DEBT BRE DDR RETAIL HOLDINGS III Blackstone 5% 67 20 11.2 $85 $62 DDRTC CORE RETAIL FUND TIAA-CREF 15% 26 18 8.4 233 122 DDR DOMESTIC RETAIL FUND I Various 20% 56 14 7.9 276 184 DDR-SAU RETAIL FUND State of Utah 20% 23 3 2.1 56 31 OTHER Various Various 13 2 2.0 73 23 TOTAL 185 57 31.6 $723 $453 JVS MAKE UP APPROXIMATELY 7% OF DDR’S PRO RATA GROSS ASSET VALUE 46
CAPITAL MARKETS
BALANCED MATURITY PROFILE MITIGATES RISK CONSOLIDATED DEBT MATURITIES $1,000 $800 REVOLVER AVAILABILITY $600 IN MILLIONS $400 $200 $0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024+ GAAP INTEREST RATE 4.2% 7.5% 5.8% 3.8% 5.3% 6.0% 3.8% 4.7% 3.4% 3.5% CASH INTEREST RATE 4.5% 7.7% 6.6% 3.8% 5.3% 6.1% 3.9% 4.7% 3.4% 3.5% 48
DEBT / EBITDA REDUCTION WILL CONTINUE 0.0x (0.1x) (0.15x) PRO RATA DEBT / EBITDA (BENEFIT) (0.2x) (0.07x) (0.3x) (0.11x) (0.4x) (0.06x) (0.5x) (0.6x) (0.16x) (0.09x) (0.7x) (0.8x) INCOME FROM LEASE-UP CIP LEASED RATE OPERATING ASSET NON-INCOME RETAINED SIGNED LEASES (PER $100M) INCREASE SALES (PER $100M) PRODUCING ASSET EARNINGS NOT YET OPEN (PER 100 BP) SALES (PER $100M) (ACTUAL) (PER $100M) 49
RISK REDUCTION GOES BEYOND DEBT/EBITDA EXITED ALL INTERNATIONAL MARKETS THROUGH DIVESTURE OF BRAZILIAN INVESTMENT P Eliminated currency, sovereign, and partner risk, as well as development and reporting risks specific to Brazil P Removed unnecessary complexity associated with reporting and modeling × Increased debt / EBITDA TRADED LOW QUALITY ASSETS FOR HIGH QUALITY ASSETS AT A 100 – 200BP SPREAD P Developed a portfolio of fortress power centers that will outperform in both a bull and a bear market P Enhanced the credit quality and lowered the beta of company cash flows × Increased debt / EBITDA WOUND DOWN 15 JOINT VENTURES OVER FOUR YEARS IN FAVOR OF LONGER-TERM PARTNERSHIPS P Simplified company structure and enhanced quality of fee income streams P Increased management focus on DDR’s wholly-owned assets × Increased debt / EBITDA ISSUED LONG-TERM, UNSECURED DEBT AT HISTORICALLY LOW INTEREST RATES P Decreased the weighted average cost of capital to approximately 6% P Extended the weighted average debt duration of the consolidated portfolio by ~1 year to 4.3 years since 2010 REDUCED LAND AND CIP AS A PERCENT OF GROSS ASSET VALUE TO 3.5% P Minimized development risk while simultaneously increasing focus on high-quality redevelopment projects (7 – 10% yields) P Redirected capital allocation to the highest quality assets in the portfolio INCREASED THE UNENCUMBERED POOL TO $7.5 BILLION P Over the last five years, DDR has increased unencumbered NOI by 66% and increased the average asset size by 61% P In 2015, DDR will add 8 prime assets totaling $1 billion of value to the unencumbered pool 50
FFO TAILWINDS WITH HIGH COUPON REFINANCINGS 10% 9% 8% Refi at 7% = ($0.01) per share earnings Impact 9.63% 7% 7.50% 6% Refi at 5% = +$0.05 per share earnings Impact 5% 4% 4.48% 3% 2% 1% 0% 2015 2016 2017 51
GROWING THE UNENCUMBERED ASSET POOL • The $6.8 billion unencumbered pool has improved materially in terms of size, quality and credit 2009 CURRENT CHANGE NUMBER OF ASSETS 242 181 -25% UNENCUMBERED NOI $252 $462 +83% % OF CONSOLIDATED NOI 49% 66% +35% UNENCUMBERED DEBT YIELD 10% 13% +30% AVERAGE ASSET SIZE 180ksf 295ksf +64% TOP CREDITS Walmart, Rite Aid, Lowe’s PetSmart, Bed Bath & Beyond, TJX 52
DDR UNENCUMBERED FOUR FORTRESS ASSETS IN THE SECOND QUARTER • In June, DDR repaid the $255 million of 6.4% (cash) secured debt; the GAAP interest rate was 2.75% • The total value added to the unencumbered pool is greater than $650 million, implying
You can also read