Industry Research and Insights Update - Tourism Tasmania
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1 Industry Research and Insights Update COVID-19 tourism industry recovery insights | Tourism Tasmania April 2021 This report summarises consumer, market, access and industry insights, providing a snapshot of the current COVID-19 recovery scenario for Tasmania’s visitor economy. 1
Cover image: Pieman River, Rob Mulally
Recovery Update
COVID-19 recovery tracking insights | Tourism Tasmania
April 2021
Industry update
Tourism Tasmania is actively tracking the recovery of the tourism and hospitality industry, with regular updates
through T21 visitor economy strategy and the industry recovery portal. This report focuses on industry recovery by
providing a view forward through consumer and industry insights, and data. This edition includes forward aviation
capacity estimates due to the summer trend of substantial schedule changes by the airlines within 72 hours of
travel appears to have softened.
Travel sentiment shows signs of improving Tasmania’s brand health maintained
Intention to make a booking within the next month is Tasmania’s brand health has held its position in the
up, though intention to travel in the next six months market, with more Australians moving back into the
has softened; possibly reflecting the shorter booking ‘active’ stages of holiday planning. Our segments are
window trend. 83% of Australians feel it is safe to also re-engaging, with Erudites particularly more active
travel domestically, with financial concerns overtaking and receptive to our campaigns. The re-launch of Come
changing border restrictions as the greatest barrier. Down For Air is being received strongly across the
Over half of us are thinking, researching or planning a segments and general population (TIM, Mar ‘21).
holiday. 75% (68% in Feb) say vaccinations will
increase their travel confidence (Apr 15-19 2021, TA).
Consumer Confidence Index
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index provides a measurement of Australians’ overall confidence
across key indicators including personal finance, the national economy, and timing of major purchases.
This time a year ago the CC index had begun it’s slow climb from the low in late March, trending towards recovery
since then, with dips and rebounds as clusters broke out, and were later contained. By mid-December 2020 the CC
index had recovered to 2019 levels, and has remained relatively steady through to March. Despite the late-March
2021 outbreak around Brisbane, consumer confidence has rebounded to higher levels than pre the pandemic.
114.0
Apr 18, 2021
(84.2, Apr 19 2020)
Lowest point
65.3
Mar 29 2020
(112.0 Mar 2019)
1
COVID-19 Access & Current Scenario
Access to Tasmania
Tasmania’s borders are now open to all Australian states and territories, without mandatory quarantine
requirements (as 24 March 2021). All travellers to Tasmania need to register their trip to enable contact tracing in
the event of an outbreak of COVID-19. Pre-COVID, approximately 85% of visitors to Tasmania departed via Hobart
Airport, Launceston Airport or the Spirit of Tasmania; these are all currently open for travellers.
All pre-COVID interstate air routes have been re-established between Hobart, Launceston, Devonport and
Burnie-Wynyard.
Hobart-Canberra is an additional route from 2019, operated by two carriers.
Intrastate return flights thrice-weekly between Hobart and King and Flinders Island began at the end of
September 2020.
The new direct flights to New Zealand are not included in the forward capacity estimates, due to the route
being served by a single carrier. There are two flights per week, with three if demand requires.
The below table provides an overview of interstate capacity (seats per week, each way) for Hobart and Launceston
for the next three months, compared to the same period last year. Flights to Devonport, Burnie-Wynyard and
sailings of the Spirit are additional to these capacity estimates.
May ’21 June ‘21 July ‘21
Estimated seat capacity^
% of May ‘19 % of June ‘19 % of July ‘19
Hobart Airport 95% 96% 100%
Launceston Airport 97% 104% 96%
Sailing up to twice per day. ‘Bring your car for free’ promotion active through
Spirit of Tasmania
this period, with limited remaining availability.
Note: 100% = estimated capacity same as the same time last year: above is more capacity (seats), below is fewer.
^Estimated capacity is sourced from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) & Ailevon Pacific Aviation Consulting analysis.
*Estimated capacity is derived from publically available commercial flight information (as at 26 April 2021) from QF, JQ and VA, and
compared to actual capacity in the same month last year. This provides a general indication of capacity at a single point in time, does not
includes all airlines, and is subject to change. Capacity is calculated based on aircraft type and standard configurations of seats. This is not a
measure of how many people will be travelling.
2COVID-19 Accommodation Forward Bookings
Tourism Tasmania measures a range of metrics of visitation into the state and across the visitor economy. This has
traditionally been predominantly an historical insight, for example through the Tasmanian Visitor Survey, National
Visitor Survey and International Visitor Survey.
Accommodation demand is a key indicator of industry and community recovery, and Tourism Tasmania has
engaged and worked closely with two providers to deliver meaningful data that broadly represents the range of
operators in Tasmania’s accommodation sector.
STR: Hotels, motels and other commercial accommodation with more than three rooms.
Forward data includes only occupancy per cent rates.
AirDNA: Short-stay accommodation, such as Airbnbs.
Forward data includes: supply (nights available), demand (nights booked), occupancy per cent rates,
average daily rate ($), revenue per available room ($) and revenue ($).
Hotel, motel, lodges etc
Tourism Tasmania has worked with STR to increase the representation of
Tasmanian operators in this platform, which now enables a view of forward Help us improve this data
occupancy rates. This view is currently available for the Hobart area, with Providers of hotel, motel, lodge
Launceston progressing as more operators participate. The forward occupancy and similar accommodation are
below is representative of the Hobart commercial accommodation market, invited to join the free STR
taking into account operator size, rating, brand affiliation and rates. program to help us monitor this
Occupancy rates continue to improve, although uncertainty of travel remains important sector. Please contact
in travellers’ minds. This uncertainty appears to have accelerated the pre- Tom tchappel@str.com to access
COVID trend of shortened booking times. Weekends remain clear peaks over your own bespoke complimentary
the next few months, which may indicate caution around using up leave days report and contribute
for a trip that may be cancelled at the last minute by border changes. The anonymously to industry insights
sharp rise in occupancy in June is around the Dark Mofo winter festival. and monitoring.
Hobart area occupancy on the books | at 19 April 2021
Next 3 months Next 90 days
Source: 2021 STR, Inc. / STR Global, Ltd. trading The fluctuating line highlights demand for weekend versus weekday stays.
as STR.
3Short stay accommodation forward bookings
The AirDNA short-stay accommodation forward demand (booked nights) data provides insight into this sector of
the industry at a state level plus Hobart, Launceston, and four regional zones, for the next 12 weeks. The zones
have been created to represent a range of urban and regional areas and collectively cover 51% of listed ‘entire
places’ in the state on Airbnb and VRBO, with the remainder outside these zones; the state level includes all ‘entire
places’ listed in Tasmania in the period.
Hobart Launceston Freycinet
Hobart City Launceston ABS Coles Bay,
Council SA3 Swanwick,
Bicheno
North West North East West Coast
7 LGAs:
Coast West Coast
Bay of Fires and Council
Circular Head,
Waratah- St Helens to
Wynyard, Falmouth
Burnie,
Devonport,
Central Coast,
Kentish and
Latrobe
The charts on the following pages provide a view forward over the coming 12 weeks, based on bookings as at the
week commencing April 19, 2021. The data refers to properties listed as ‘entire places’, where guests have the
whole home/property to themselves (approximately 85% of listed properties in Tasmania).
Each chart also shows bookings relative to the above date, that were in place as of:
Four weeks ago | Dotted blue line. This provides a view of the short booking window impact.
Last year | Solid grey line. Currently, ‘last year’ means the same month in 2020.
Two years ago | Dotted grey line. Currently, ‘two years ago’ refers to the same month in 2019.
4Tasmania | Short-stay accommodation
At the state level, forward demand (booked nights) for short-stay accommodation (solid blue line) is indicating
steady improvements from not only last years’ travel-restricted period (solid grey line), but also against the booked
nights that were in the system at this time in 2019 (grey dotted line). The shortened booking window trends
continues to impact forward bookings; positively over the past four weeks (dotted blue line), however does give a
weaker impression looking forward until those bookings are made.
The data is showing that from early May 2020, forward booked nights are currently higher than they were at this
time in 2019, indicating good progress towards recovery. The bump in June around the Dark Mofo winter festival;
the 2021 event is only being held across one weekend, whereas in 2019 it covered two, which is evident in the
broader bump in the 2019 line.
Hobart | Short-stay accommodation
Hobart forward demand remains below that seen at the same time in 2019, with the impact of Dark Mofo being
held on one rather than two weekends most evident for the capital.
5Launceston | Short-stay accommodation
Freycinet | Short-stay accommodation
The four regional indicator zones continue to see stronger forward demand than the major cities, with each
showing periods of demand at levels higher than seen at the same time in 2019.
6North East Coast | Short-stay accommodation
West Coast | Short-stay accommodation
North West | Short-stay accommodation
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