IIMK/CS/119/ECO/2020/01 - Case Study - IIM Kozhikode
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Case Study
IIMK/CS/119/ECO/2020/01
November 2020
The Maharashtra Political Crisis: The Coalition that Mattered
Anirban Ghatak1
1AssistantProfessor, Economics, Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode, IIMK Campus, Kunnamangalam, Kozhikode, Kerala
673 570, India; Email: aghatak@iimk.ac.in, Phone number: +91 495 2809655
Before that moment on October 24, 2019, the fate of the Maharashtra State Legislative Assembly
election in India was somewhat predetermined. There was neither much speculative energy nor
antagonistic heat in the air, except for the occasional, almost ritual, squabbles between activists
of the various political parties that contested in the election, in sporadic local pockets. Uddhav
Thackarey, the erstwhile prince who recently became the king of his late father’s party, Shiv Sena,
was also content with the exit poll predictions and the ground reports that came from his own
trustworthy generals. On the other hand, the rest of the world was keeping a cautious eye on the
predictions. After all, the result was going to affect the financial capital of the largest democracy
in the world.
There were numerous parties that were fighting in that election, but pre-poll alliances along
with the stark inequality in the size of the parties had boiled down the serious contenders into
only few notable clusters. There was National Democratic Alliance (NDA) which, for this context,
comprised of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) that was the ruling party in the center, and Shiv
Sena, the flag-bearer of the ‘local’ in Maharashtra. On the other side, there was United Progressive
Alliance (UPA), which had Indian National Congress (INC) and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP)
as its most notable participants in this election. The rest of them were negligibly small in size, and
can be conveniently bundled into the third cluster, ‘Other’. To win the election, it was necessary
for any party or alliance to win 145 seats, that is the majority of the assembly of 288 seats. Exit
polls (Agarwal, 2019) and Opinion polls (FE, 2019; Joy, 2019; News18, 2019; Rao, 2019; Sharma,
2019) from various sources had unanimously predicted that the NDA would win by a wide margin,
if not a landslide [Exhibit 1].
October 24, 2019. The results from various booths of various constituencies started pouring
in from 8AM. Slowly it was getting clearer that the exit polls had it slightly overestimated. The
analysts in each camp were getting busier as the day progressed. By afternoon, the public came
to know that there wasn’t any landslide, but there was a sure and comfortable margin for NDA
with 161 seats [Exhibit 2] (CEO-MH, n.d.) in the Legislative Assembly. Interestingly, Uddhav
Thackarey wasn’t quite ready to agree with the public, yet.
Thackarey was quick to realize that BJP alone was not enough powerful, with only 105 seats,
to form the government. There was his moment to grab the opportunity, and he was not na¨ıve
to waste that. Immediately after the final declaration of results, Thackarey claimed the post of
Chief Minister within the intra-alliance meeting, somehow anticipating that this was a move that is
unlikely to bring any harm to his party. This was an unexpected move to the party who has won two
third of the seats within the alliance, and there was no reason for BJP to agree to this. And they
didn’t. To BJP, Shiv Sena had nowhere to go other than NDA, and they played their best card by
denying Thackarey’s proposal outright. What happened next, was definitely not anticipated, and tomany seasoned political analysts it was a suicidal move for Shiv Sena. Thackarey officially declared
that his party is leaving the pre-poll NDA alliance, leaving the electoral scene more complicated
than anyone could have imagined.
The only way out from the electoral situation that was created was to arrive at some new post-
poll alliance. But that wasn’t any less tricky either! NDA, a traditional right wing alliance has
fought against UPA, a traditional centrist alliance in every state in India for decades. There was no
history of any National party of UPA (here, INC and NCP) to come to a post-poll alliance with any
National party of NDA (here, only BJP), or vice versa. Both BJP and Shiv Sena were aware of this
history, as were the major parties of UPA. It was evident that any such alliance would unravel the
ideological bankruptcy that would have triggered the alliance, and a host of debates on politics,
policy, and constitution would begin if that ever happened. This never did any good to anyone
who is powerful enough to care about their image. And everyone knew that. On the other hand, it
was not a very uncommon event where some small partner (State Party, like Shiv Sena) of either
UPA or NDA joined hand with the rival alliance for state or local body elections. Perhaps, then the
gain from the power had significantly outweighed the loss in reputation for both the groups that
joined hand! However, for National parties, history has proved, reputation was fairly important
unless they were at the brink of oblivion. And in our case, none of the parties were at the brink of
oblivion.
What unfolded after, was a series of dramatic moves, shameless horse-trading, formation of a
government that lasted for three days, and above all, a slew of masterstrokes by the ace politician
Thackarey. Shiv Sena, lead by the iron fist of Thackarey, didn’t move an inch from their position
and never proposed to re-join NDA. It was a stalemate, a game of chicken. Everyone was holding
on to their cards, waiting until the opposition crumbles under pressure. Only, BJP was thinking
otherwise, busy to change the rule of the game. BJP took some of the members of NCP in
confidence, and reached the magic number 145, using an ad-hoc post poll alliance, to form the
government. The government sworn in on November 23, 2019. Sharad Pawar, the NCP chief wasn’t
happy with this, and he was also quick to denounce his party’s connection with the defectors who
moved with NDA. The anti-defection law came handy at this moment, and the defector members
of NCP came back, leaving BJP high and dry. The government collapsed in three days, setting a
historic precedence.
In the meantime, Shiv Sena convinced INC and NCP that this was their only chance to form
the government, which they could not have thought otherwise without taking some serious hit to
their image, if they agreed to let Shiv Sena lead the new post-poll alliance. NCP and INC had no
choice but to grab this only opportunity to represent. And finally, Thackarey became the Chief
Minister of Maharashtra on November 28, 2019. In another three days, he announced that the
nephew of the National President of NCP will be the Deputy Chief Minister of the state.
The interesting question that since then has baffled the psephologists and political analysts is,
how could Thackarey remain so confident to challenge a political behemoth like BJP? What was
in their support? Was there any math that only Thackarey did, and everyone else overlooked?Exhibit 1: Opinion & Exit Poll
Poll type Publishing Date Polling Agency NDA UPA
Opinion polls 26-Sep-19 ABP News– C Voter 205 55
27-Sep-19 NewsX– Pollstrat 210 49
17-Oct-19 Republic Media – Jan Ki Baat 225-232 48-52
18-Oct-19 ABP News– C Voter 194 86
18-Oct-19 IANS – C Voter 182-206 72-98
Exit polls India Today – Axis 166-194 72-90
News18 – IPSOS 243 41
Republic Media – Jan Ki Baat 216-230 52-59
ABP News– C Voter 204 69
NewsX– Pollstrat 188-200 74-89
Times Now 230 48
Created by Author using data from the sources listed in the references
Exhibit 2: Election Result
PARTY TYPE PARTY (ALLIANCE) CONTESTED WON
NATIONAL PARTIES
1 BJP (NDA) 164 105
2 BSP 262 0
3 CPI 16 0
4 CPIM 8 1
5 INC (UPA) 147 44
6 NCP (UPA) 121 54
STATE PARTIES - OTHER STATES
7 AAAP 24 0
8 AIFB 1 0
9 AIMIM 44 2
10 IUML 14 0
11 JD(S) 6 0
12 SP 7 2
STATE PARTIES
13 MNS 101 1
14 Shiv Sena (NDA) 126 56
Created by Author using data from the Election Commission websiteReferences
Agarwal, N. (2019). Exit poll results: Pollsters predict big win for bjp in maharashtra, haryana. Re-
trieved September 16, 2020, from https://www.livemint.com/elections/assembly-elections/
maharashtra-assembly-election-exit-polls-2019-results-live-updates-11571654934714.html
CEO-MH. (n.d.). Assembly election 2019. Retrieved September 16, 2020, from https : / / ceo .
maharashtra.gov.in/AC2019.aspx
FE. (2019). Maharashtra opinion poll 2019: Bjp, shiv sena likely to retain power with two-thirds
majority. Retrieved September 16, 2020, from https://www.financialexpress.com/india-
news/maharashtra- assembly- election- 2019- opinion- poll- abp- c- voter- devendra- fadnavis-
bjp-shiv-sena-congress-ncp/1714003/
Joy, S. (2019). Opinion poll predicts bjp win in haryana, maharashtra. Retrieved September 16,
2020, from https://www.deccanherald.com/assembly-election-2019/opinion-poll-predicts-
bjp-win-in-haryana-maharashtra-769463.html
News18. (2019). Survey predicts landslide bjp victory in haryana, big win in maharashtra. Retrieved
September 16, 2020, from https : // www . news18 . com / news / politics / survey - predicts -
landslide-bjp-victory-in-haryana-big-win-in-maharashtra-2351241.html
Rao, A. (2019). Maharashtra opinion poll: Bjp projected for single-majority on its own. Retrieved
September 16, 2020, from https://www.republicworld.com/india-news/elections/maharashtra-
opinion-poll-bjp-projected-for-single-majority-on-its-own.html
Sharma, G. (2019). Pollstart opinion poll: Bjp likely to retain power in haryana and maharashtra.
Retrieved September 16, 2020, from https://www.newsx.com/national/newsx-poll-start-
opinion-poll-bjp-likely-to-retain-power-in-haryana-and-maharashtra.htmlResearch Office Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode IIMK Campus P. O., Kozhikode, Kerala, India, PIN - 673 570 Phone: +91-495-2809237/ 238 Email: research@iimk.ac.in Web: https://iimk.ac.in/faculty/publicationmenu.php
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