GLOBAL CITIES THE 2016 REPORT - THE FUTURE OF REAL ESTATE IN THE WORLD'S LEADING CITIES - Global Cities 2016 | Knight Frank
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G LO BA L CITIE S THE 2016 REPORT GLOBAL CITIES THE 2016 REPORT THE FUTURE OF REAL ESTATE IN THE WORLD’S LEADING CITIES KNIGHTFRANK.COM/GLOBALCITIES NGKF.COM/GLOBALCITIES
GL OBA L CI T I E S R E P ORT 2 016 380 THE NUMBER OF NEW CITY DWELLERS GLOBALLY IN THE NEXT FIVE YEARS. THE EQUIVALENT OF THREE TIMES THE POPULATION OF JAPAN MILLION
GL OBA L CI T I E S R E P ORT 2 016 TRAINS, PLANES 04 05 AND GLOBAL CITIES Rapid population growth and infrastructure projects will create opportunities in cities around the world The UN is forecasting the world’s awash with cranes as airports, high cities to increase in population by 380 speed railways, underground railways, million people in the next five years. port facilities, and power stations are Consequently, the planet will need to build being constructed. Cities like Mumbai the equivalent of five cities the size of Los and São Paulo are playing catch-up, Angeles every year between now and 2020, bringing in the infrastructure to match and all the supporting infrastructure. the rapid population growth. Mature The development potential of this rapid centres like Paris and London, having urbanisation is huge, offering considerable reversed population decline in the past opportunities to firms and investors that are laying new rail lines in anticipation of operate globally. swelling future numbers of commuters and tourists. Places like Dubai and Beijing Knight Frank and Newmark Grubb Knight JOHN SNOW are developing mega airports in order to Frank would like to brief you on what this Head of Commercial, Knight Frank maintain the momentum behind their will mean for your business. Consequently, commercial success. we have asked our researchers around the globe, from Los Angeles to Delhi, from Whatever the reasons behind the new São Paulo to Beijing, to draw together a wave of infrastructure projects, they comprehensive outlook for real estate in will reshape the Global Cities. New 21 of the leading business cities. This is business districts will emerge, creating gentrification in former industrial Global Cities: The 2016 Report. districts, and in turn necessitating the We also this year include a Watch List of development of new homes, shopping five cities we believe are set to play a bigger centres, leisure facilities, and offices. All role in the global business community in this will be underpinned by an advanced the coming years. These up and coming logistics system, which starts at the factory centres range from Nairobi in Kenya, gate on one continent and ends with a which demonstrates Africa’s rapid home delivery thousands of miles away. modernisation, to Dubai in the U.A.E., Real estate will play an essential part in which has pulled clear of past difficulties all of this, and Global Cities: The 2016 and is expanding as a hub for investment, Report aims to brief you on where the JAMES D. KUHN tourism and transport. opportunities are to be found. We hope President, Newmark Grubb Knight Frank The cities covered by this report are very this study will be a useful tool to assist with different in character, but a common your business planning for 2016. Feel free theme among them is new infrastructure to contact either of us should you wish to development. The Global Cities are discuss the report’s conclusions further. Tokyo, Japan
GL OBA L CI T I E S R E P ORT 2 016 06 07 CONTENTS SUPER CITIES 40 - 41 GLOBAL CITIES 08 - 11 The Super Cities Retail: All The 50 - 52 Asia Dashboard A new global economic cycle is fuelling the expansion of World’s A Stage 53 Mumbai cities. Which centres will benefit the most? 54 Delhi 12 Skyscraper Index Which is the most expensive city in the world to rent an 55 Bengaluru office that has a helicopter view? 56 Shanghai 13 - 15 Five Global Infrastructure Projects 57 Beijing Across the world, the development of rail lines, seaports, and airports, looks set to create new business hubs. 58 - 59 Australia Dashboard 26 - 30 08 - 11 60 Sydney GATEWAY CITIES 61 Melbourne Future Offices: The Super Cities 16 - 17 New York City Breaking The Mould 62 Tokyo 18 - 19 Singapore 63 - 65 U.S. Dashboard 20 - 21 London 66 San Francisco 22 - 23 Hong Kong 67 Los Angeles 24 - 25 Paris 68 Washington, DC 48 - 49 69 Chicago GLOBAL OCCUPIERS Architecture Of 70 Mexico City Inclusivity 26 - 30 Future Offices: Breaking The Mould 71 São Paulo The office is being transformed beyond recognition as firms 72 - 73 Europe Dashboard strive to create an inspiring workplace. 74 Frankfurt 31 Crowd Working 75 Madrid Collaborative offices are rising fast around the world as the number of start-ups mushrooms. 32 - 33 The Sydney Office WATCH LIST Sydney is a trailblazer for activity-based working, where sofas are making desks redundant. 76 - 77 Dubai 78 Kuala Lumpur GLOBAL CAPITAL MARKETS 79 Bangkok 34 - 38 Five Future Trends In Capital Markets From specialist property, to short income assets, to mixed- use; here are five opportunities in real estate investment. 42 - 47 80 81 Nairobi Moscow Flexible Living 39 Global Megatrends Mike Sales, CEO of TH Real Estate, looks at the seismic POST SCRIPT changes in the global property market. 40 - 41 Retail: All The World’s A Stage 82 About The Group More retailers are looking to expand abroad, and must learn 83 Contributors and Important Notice the dynamics of new real estate markets. RESIDENTIAL GLOSSARY 42 - 47 Flexible Living ABW: Activity-Based Working With more people living away from home for long periods of time, the need for flexible apartments is growing. Bn: Billions CBD: Central Business District FEATURE INTERVIEW GDP: Gross Domestic Product GFC: Global Financial Crisis 48 - 49 Architecture Of Inclusivity LHS: Left Hand Scale Architect, Zaha Hadid, discusses how architects can help M: Millions build an inclusive modern city. PSF: Per Square Foot RHS: Right Hand Scale 34 - 38 Sq ft: TAMI: Square Feet Technology, Advertising, Media & Information Five Future Trends In Capital Markets TMT: Technology, Media and Telecoms See important notice at the end of this report
SU PE R CI T I E S 09 08 The Global Cities are about to see huge growth, and their real estate markets need to be ready for new waves of citizens, firms and global investors WRITTEN BY James Roberts, Chief Economist, Knight Frank The UN is forecasting the global urban Expansion for the newer emerging market population to grow by 380 million people cities will probably be funded by local by 2020, which if correct means demand investors. International investment is more for city real estate is about to surge. The likely to look at either established centres development potential of this forecast or the emerging cities that have moved into growth is huge, when one considers all the the global league, like Beijing or Bengaluru. new homes, offices, shops, logistics centres This is not to say the developing world and infrastructure projects that such rapid does not offer opportunities. There expansion would necessitate. can be the opportunity to exploit Cities in high-income countries are transformational change if rapid growth projected to rise in population by 34 is well managed. Indeed, on satellite million by 2020, the equivalent of three maps there is now an identifiable super cities the size of Paris. City populations in city along China’s Pearl River delta, middle-income countries are forecast to encompassing Hong Kong, Shenzhen, increase by 290 million people over the Guangzhou and Macao, that is home same period, which is about 12 cities the to an estimated 120 million people. size of Shanghai. With the UN predicting China’s urban population to grow by 95 million by 2020, THE INVESTOR’S DILEMMA more super cities will appear. Similarly, The dilemma faced by today’s global real Indian government policy is pushing an estate investor is whether to buy into ‘industrial corridor’ between Mumbai the slower growth established cities in and Delhi. the high-income countries, or the faster Therefore, we expect property growing but riskier emerging markets. investors to seek a balance of growth While the rapid growth in emerging and diversification in a global markets speaks for itself, the strengths of property portfolio. the mature cities are sometimes overlooked. SOURCES OF CAPITAL While Shanghai has more than twice the population of Paris, GDP per capita is Next year, we expect two major sources four times higher in the French capital, a of capital to be particularly active, namely consideration when buying lifestyle-related North American money into the global property like retail or leisure. market and opportunist domestic money Also, rather than anyone building a ‘new in Europe. Paris’, in wealthier countries we expect The dollar has strengthened on currency new city dwellers to settle in existing markets, while the spread between U.S. cities that will expand accordingly. Being real estate and bond yields has narrowed. long-established centres, they will find Recent economic indicators suggest international investors willing to fund that the Eurozone is through the worst, the necessary development. In emerging and we expect U.S. capital to look to markets, where towns can transform into exploit recovery opportunities. Current cities in a few years, a share of the projected evidence suggests a pattern of both growth could be in cities that are so new it direct investment and providing non- would be ambitious for an overseas investor bank finance. to buy there. Since 1990, an estimated 470 new cities have been established in Asia, of which 393 were in China and India. CONTINUED ON 10-11 The Bund, Shanghai, China
SU PE R CI T I E S SU PE R CI T I E S PRIME YIELDS - END OF 2015 FORECAST 10 12 CONTINUED FROM 08-09 to free food and yoga areas. Fit-out is is seeing multiple economic cycles set SKYSCRAPER We also believe more European money Regent Street, Source: Knight Frank Research, Newmark Grubb Knight changing to match how people work, with at different stages. A diverse investment London, U.K. will re-enter the property market, Frank Research, Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Research Institute informal meeting areas displacing desks. portfolio, or office network in the case of given the very low level of government the occupier, is the best way of being able The move towards non-desk workspace is bond yields. This has made property to catch the next rising tide. delivering efficiency savings. In Sydney, yields look comparatively high, which Bengaluru 10.5% a growing number of firms are no longer To exploit these opportunities, investors is drawing buyers into the market. As a providing desks for all their workers. This is and occupiers need to be operating in result, in many European markets sales volumes are picking up, and prices are Mumbai 10% based on the idea that a percentage of staff cities that have the flexibility to respond INDEX are not in the office at any given time, and to their changing needs. A city must have once again rising. non-desk work areas can cater for a fluid a dynamic labour market for the occupier Expectations of how low property Delhi 9.5% traffic of those who come and go during the to recruit the right workers, while investment yields can go are about to course of a day. investors need a fluid investment market be tested, given we have seen negative to deploy funds or exit with speed. yields for some European bonds in 2015. Mexico City 7% In the future, rather than consisting of rows of desks, the office could be an For both the investor and the occupier In London, property yields have fallen expansive series of meeting places – the Global Cities are a strong option. below 2007 levels while still maintaining Beijing 6.3% some built around chance encounters, They offer liquidity to the investor a healthy spread over government bonds. others more formal or designed for quiet and wholesale access to workers and This is because old norms on pricing have general rising tide in the global economy Also, among occupiers in the sub-20,000 been rendered obsolete by a changed prior to the GFC, today growth is patchy sq ft size bracket we are seeing more Shanghai 6.3% concentration. Firms need to adapt customers to the occupier. Those who to these workplace changes that can view themselves as global operators will “LONDON RECORDED THE HIGHEST financial landscape, and economic and good news in one geographic region office deals by firms that blur the lines improve communication, raise the quality always want a presence in the 26 cities London and San Francisco are recovery should spread this effect to is usually counterbalanced by slowdown between technology and other industries. Melbourne 5.9% of life in the office, and save money. discussed in this report. seeing the fastest rental growth other cities in Europe. elsewhere. Companies need to be able These are often technology-driven media OCCUPIERS LOOK ABROAD to redeploy capital and people around the world according to where the next companies, and FinTech firms that bridge the worlds of finance and IT. Sydney 5.7% DI V ER SI F IC ATION A ND FLEX IBILIT Y for high-rise offices RENTAL GROWTH - NEARLY 11%” Just as real estate investors are looking opportunity is appearing. The key words are now diversification further afield for opportunities, so are Office demand is in many markets Chicago 5.4% corporate occupiers. coming from new sources. The new wave “CITIES IN HIGH INCOME and flexibility. Both investors and occupiers need to be able to quickly In our latest Skyscraper Index, based City Prime rent (U.S.$/sq ft/yr) Six months growth* New patterns of economic growth since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) have of technology firms that have driven the North American and U.K. office markets COUNTRIES ARE FORECAST Washington DC 5% redeploy to wherever in the world growth is appearing, given the global economy on Q2 2015 data, Hong Kong retains the title of the most expensive place Hong Kong $255.50 1.9% created extra pressures on companies to operate worldwide. In contrast to the in recent years are now setting up outposts in Asia and continental Europe. TO RISE IN POPULATION BY 34 Los Angeles 4.9% in the world to rent office space in a tower building. However, other cities New York City Tokyo $153.00 $125.00 2.0% 3.4% MILLION PEOPLE BY 2020” Pudong district, Shanghai, China are seeing considerably greater rental London $122.00 10.7% growth, reflecting stronger office OFFICE RENTS - CHANGE ON 2007 BASED ON END OF 2015 FORECAST Frankfurt 4.5% markets elsewhere in the world. San Francisco $105.00 8.2% Flexible offices are another growth area, Singapore $93.25 1.2% London recorded the highest level of Source: Knight Frank Research, Newmark Grubb Knight particularly collaborative offices. These London 4% rental growth – nearly 11% in the six Sydney $86.50 0.7% Frank Research, Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Research Institute operate like tech incubators, where Moscow $79.00 0.0% BEIJING 67.9% months to June. This is partly thanks SAN FRANCISCO 54.0% independent entrepreneurs work side Boston $75.00 0.0% 80% by side in a communal office. Madrid 4% to a buoyant occupier market, which has left the vacancy rate at a 14 year Los Angeles $73.00 0.0% 70% low. Also, several high profile new Shanghai $72.75 5.3% NO GUARANTEE OF A DESK 60% New York City 4% tower completions have delivered Many occupiers increasingly view offices Chicago $68.00 4.6% space to the market capable of setting MELBOURNE 22.6% 50% as an effective means of controlling the Beijing $67.00 -1.0% bigger and more damaging business cost San Francisco 4% new benchmark levels for rents. WASHINGTON DC 8.3% Paris $56.75 1.9% SYDNEY 18.4% 40% Hot on the heels of London is San LONDON 10.2% of staff attrition. Whereas in the past an BENGALURU 8.2% MEXICO CITY 7.3% Francisco, where the office market Frankfurt $53.25 0.0% NEW YORK CITY -1.3% 30% Singapore 3.7% SINGAPORE -38.9% LOS ANGELES 1.0% office relocation was largely managed SHANGHAI 2.8% HONG KONG -0.2% FRANKFURT 0.0% continues to benefit from the city’s Mumbai $52.00 1.3% MUMBAI -16.8% MADRID -35.7% CHICAGO -2.0% TOKYO -22.2% 20% by the finance director, increasingly the DELHI -19.0% PARIS -8.9% expanding technology sector. Rental Melbourne $46.25 0.0% chief executive and the head of human 10% resources are showing an interest, now Tokyo 3.7% growth for tower buildings exceeded Dubai $43.50 0.0% 0% 8%, which is considerably higher than that staff retention is featuring within the Madrid $38.50 3.3% any other U.S. city in the study. -10% decision making process. Paris 3.5% Taipei $37.00 0.0% The trend is towards a workplace that Seoul $33.50 2.8% -20% increases staff satisfaction, with features -30% that make the whole work experience Hong Kong 2.9% *Q4 2014 to Q2 2015, excluding exchange rate fluctuations. Source: Knight Frank Research, Newmark Grubb Knight -40% more pleasurable, from games rooms Currency conversions as at 30/06/15 Frank Research, Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Research Institute
SU PE R CI T I E S GLOBAL WRITTEN BY James Roberts, SUPER Chief Economist, 05 AIRPORTS Knight Frank INFRASTRUCTURE THE DELHI–MUMBAI In Dubai, Al Maktoum International Airport, which 14 15 03 13 INDUSTRIAL CORRIDOR opened in 2010, is to be expanded from a current freight capacity of 1 million tons of cargo per annum to The Delhi–Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC) 16 million tons. Passenger services began in 2013, and the PROJECTS is a development zone that will be targeted for plan is to increase to 220 million passengers a year. Dubai investment to build up new industries to support International, the world’s busiest airport, currently handles India’s rapid urbanisation. The project will be around 72 million passengers. Al Maktoum is part of the partly backed by Japanese investment. The Dubai South, an economic freezone covering 56 square transport backbone will be a freight rail line miles, which links up with the nearby Jebel Ali Port. called the Dedicated Western Freight Corridor, Singapore’s Changi International Airport has a new fourth With the world’s cities predicted to add 380 million which is intended to push down logistics costs in new citizens in the next five years, new mass transit terminal under construction, which will increase the the region. airport’s capacity to 82 million passengers a year. Also, systems, power and utilities, and faster connections to Along the corridor, smart cities are to be developed, as plans are being advanced for a third runway at Hong Kong markets will be needed. Here is our choice of the mega well as three new seaports and six airports. The city International Airport, which would allow it to handle up infrastructure projects that will be generating new of Dholera has been declared a Special Investment to 102 million passengers. business clusters, and creating real estate opportunities Region, with a target of tripling industrial output and quadrupling exports in the next five years. The long- term goal is to create a new mega city for India. IBM and Cisco have been contracted to transform Dholera into a smart city. EXPANDING THE PANAMA 04 AND SUEZ CANALS Presently ships queue up to transit the Panama Canal, whose original locks are restricted to ‘Panamax’ ships that carry around 5,000 containers. A new set of locks completes construction in 2016 that will offer passage to ‘post-Panamax’ ships that can carry up to 13,000 containers. Port facilities around the world are being expanded to handle post-Panamax ships, creating development CHINA’S GLOBAL opportunities for real estate investors. 01 RAILWAY LINKS The Suez Canal’s lane has just been doubled in width to allow ships to sail in both directions, China is using rail to speed up transporting freight to with plans to develop the land along its banks Europe on routes running through Russia, or via Iran into an industrial zone. There is also more and Turkey. By sea it takes cargo six weeks to travel from AFRICAN the inland manufacturing city of Chengdu to Europe, but 02 AMBITIONS traffic on the North East Passage, where ships follow icebreakers from Europe to Asia through now a rail freight service reaches Poland in two weeks. the Arctic Ocean. This could require new There is even a train service to Madrid from eastern A major infrastructure project in Kenya is LAPSSET logistics centres to serve the route. China that takes three weeks. To improve connections, a (Lamu Port and Lamu-South Sudan-Ethiopia U.S.$40 bn Silk Road Fund has been established to finance Transport Corridor). This consists of a new 30-berth infrastructure projects abroad. port and oil refinery at Lamu, which will be connected to Nairobi and the borders of Ethiopia There are also plans to link Kunming in southern China and South Sudan by rail, road and oil pipelines. In to Singapore via several lines running through Myanmar, Ethiopia, a new Chinese funded railway line between Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia. Further afield, China is Addis Ababa and the Red Sea port of Djibouti is majority financing a new railway from the Kenyan port of expected to begin operations in 2016. Work has just Mombasa to Nairobi, which is under construction. This all completed in Addis Ababa on a light rail system for forms part of China’s ‘One Belt, One Road’ programme to the city. enhance trade routes. As China diversifies its trade routes, new business hubs will appear, creating opportunities for In Nigeria, a Chinese firm has won the U.S.$12 bn property investors. contract to build an 870 mile railway between Lagos in the west and Calabar in the east. Construction has started on a new port to the east of Lagos at Lekki, with phase one scheduled for completion in 2018.
G AT E WAY CI T I E S Lower Manhattan, plan to extend the 7 train to 34th Street government tenants, media and financial New York City, U.S. and 11th Avenue, creating the level of firms. Three World Trade Center is under interconnectivity necessary to sustain construction and will be anchored by a business district on the Far West global advertising giant, Group M. Two 40.7127° N, 74.0059° W 16 17 Side. Subsequently, various prominent World Trade Center, which is still in the landlords, including Related Properties, planning stages, has drawn significant Brookfield Properties, Tishman Speyer, attention from News Corporation for Manhattan is experiencing Mitsui Fudosan and The Moinian approximately half of its proposed 2.8 Group, have invested in developments million sq ft of space. a transformational surrounding the Hudson Yards site. Redevelopment of the World Trade wave of new development The Far West Side has drawn a number of Center and its immediate vicinity high-profile commitments from various includes two new transit hubs, an 18 acre industries, such as legal, technology, memorial park and museum, and nearly NEW YORK CITY creative and luxury goods, which enabled 600,000 sq ft of retail at three sites. construction to commence on additional Westfield Group will open a 365,000 sq ft towers and boosted the area’s visibility. retail complex at the World Trade Center Coach, L’Oreal, SAP, Time Warner and Transit Hub and at the base of Three Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom and Four World Trade Center. Brookfield are examples of anchor tenants that have Properties is upgrading 200,000 sq ft of allowed various projects to enter the next shopping and dining space at Brookfield phase of development. Place. Saks Fifth Avenue will anchor Running concurrent to the office pipeline Brookfield’s retail complex with a four at Hudson Yards is the development of floor, 85,000 sq ft department store. The nearly 4.0 million sq ft of residential Fulton Transit Center, with 65,000 sq ft space alongside world class retail, of retail space, will connect to the World the city’s inventory and offer comparable COMMERCIAL DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE hospitality and amenities. Luxury retailer Trade Center Site and Brookfield Place via an underground passageway. options similar to other global cities. (‘000s SQ FT) Neiman Marcus will establish its first presence in New York City with a 250,000 WRITTEN BY Jonathan Mazur, Additionally, the nature of the workplace 12,000 Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research sq ft store at Related’s retail complex Managing Director, Research, is in the midst of a paradigm shift, with sitting atop the main rail yards site. and David Chase, Research Analyst the emphasis on increased density, open at Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Further Downtown, the World Trade 10,369 floor plans, collaborative space and complex is undergoing a massive shared recreational facilities. The rapid rebuilding effort. One World Trade 9,793 With 26 million sq ft of new office space growth of the TAMI sector has been the slated for completion, New York City is in 10,000 Center delivered 3.0 million sq ft in main driving force behind the work/play the midst of a construction renaissance November 2014. Condé Nast, the office design, borne out of the workplace similar to that of the 1980s, when more building’s 1.2 million sq ft anchor tenant, campuses of Silicon Valley and the than 50 million sq ft of space was built. relocated from Times Square, an area the retro-fitted loft spaces in Midtown South The lack of modern office product company helped revitalize two decades that became the archetype for creative in Manhattan’s traditional business workspace. Large TAMI tenants have 8,000 ago. Four World Trade Center, the first new tower completed on the site in 2013, corridors, coupled with growing demand 7,087 been among the most active players in the is approximately 60% leased, including from the expanding TAMI (Technology, new developments on the Far West Side Advertising, Media, and Information) and at the World Trade Center. sector, has driven the large-scale Expected Potential 5,682 development projects underway on the 6,000 Delivery Delivery 10.3 5,437 5,252 Far West Side and at the World Trade “THE NATURE OF THE 16.6 MSF MSF 4,900 Center site. 4,659 4,600 Inactivity in Manhattan’s construction WORKPLACE IS IN THE MIDST 4,173 4,100 pipeline over the past 15 years has OF A PARADIGM SHIFT” 3,732 3,612 created substantial pent up demand for 4,000 3,371 3,257 3,170 modern offices. With an average age of 3,057 2,983 2,831 70 years, most buildings in the traditional With eight buildings comprising 16.4 1980 to 2014 2,430 totals 82.4 2,387 Midtown core submarkets cannot offer million sq ft of new ultra prime office 2,217 msf of new 2,141 the space efficiency and customization space in the construction pipeline, 1,860 construction 1,700 1,600 that many tenants now expect when the burgeoning development at the 2,000 1,300 making long-term lease commitments. Hudson Yards rail site amounts to the 979 970 Government rezoning initiatives are ground up creation of an entire micro 850 underway to incentivize landlords to market on Manhattan’s Far West Side. 259 replace outdated office buildings with The project gained momentum from 175 102 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 modern skyscrapers that would enhance the Metropolitan Transit Authority’s 0 2000 2006 2008 2009 2003 2005 2020 2002 2004 2007 2016 2018 1980 1990 2019 2015 1986 1988 1989 1996 1998 1999 2001 2010 1983 1993 1985 1995 2013 1982 1992 1984 1994 2012 2014 2017 1997 1987 1981 1991 2011 TBD
G AT E WAY CI T I E S 1.3000° N, 103.8000° E 19 18 SINGAPORE Helix Bridge and preference for city centres shown by the Marina Bay Sands TMT sector across the world. Hotel, Singapore Also, Singapore is working towards a well diversified and sustainable economy that builds upon its success in healthcare, education, logistics, aerospace, petrochemicals, and biotechnology. For many firms in these industries, locating in the CBD is not essential – indeed, globally, aerospace and biotechnology firms are usually in suburban office New business locations will markets – which should generate office demand in the Fringes. The government house future office demand plans to establish various commercial WRITTEN BY clusters, business and industrial parks by Alice Tan, 2030 provide further insight into where Director and Head, future property development will appear Consultancy & Research, in Singapore. Knight Frank Singapore Singapore’s stellar transformation from increased by 40% over the same period. future sources of demand emerging that ‘third world to first’ in the span of five This is not to say the traditional CBD will create opportunities in both the CBD BREAKDOWN AND PROPORTION OF SINGAPORE OFFICE SPACE decades is a success story many other stagnated. In fact, it expanded on to land and the Fringes. BY AREA / REGION, 2000 TO FIRST HALF 2015 Source: REALIS, Knight Frank Research nations aspire to match, but few succeed. reclaimed from the sea at Marina Bay, While at present the financial sector The process of building the city state where tower developments housed the is seeing consolidation, leaving some Downtown Core (LHS) Orchard (LHS) Rest of Central Area (LHS) Fringe Area (LHS) Outside Central Region (LHS) into a thriving metropolis was shaped front offices of Singapore’s fast growing occupiers with ‘shadow’ space, in the by the need to decentralise business financial community. long run, finance should benefit from % Proportion to total office stock- Outside Central Region (RHS) locations and house new, up-and-coming This created a real estate landscape Singapore’s growth as the key trading % Proportion to total office stock- Fringe Area (RHS) industries. The Global Financial Crisis that was highly suited to the financial centre for South East Asia. To date, % Proportion to total office stock- Central Area (RHS) (GFC) and the rise of new technology and business services industries, with asset management, insurance and office tenants is now resulting in changes front office operations paying higher currency trading are fast growing in occupier demand in the CBD and rents to be in CBD buildings, while industries, which are drawn to 90k 80% Fringe office markets, with future back offices occupied more affordable Singapore by the conducive business opportunities for both. space in Fringe districts like Tampines environment. This should provide 80k 70% Changes in legislation to give greater and Changi. As office rents escalated in demand in the long-term for both the powers to landlords in 1969 paved the 2007, government agencies were urged CBD and Fringe markets, from front way for wholesale redevelopment of the to consider relocating out of the CBD to and back office operations respectively. 70k city centre during the 1970s and 1980s, make space for the private sector. 60% Technology firms are in our view a strong which provided the offices to support However, the post-2007 period has been source of future demand for offices in Singapore’s rapid growth during those 60k a time when the relationship between the Singapore. The Smart Nation iN2015 % Proportion to total office stock decades. However, to create business 50% CBD and the Fringes has changed. After Net office stock (‘000 sq ft) Office buildings masterplan is a positive step towards in Raffles Place, space to accommodate future waves of the falls in rents during the GFC, the Singapore promoting technology, and will benefit 50k expansion, a policy of ‘decentralisation’ CBD became more affordable, reducing various sectors of the economy, including was adopted through the 1991 Concept 40% pressure on cost conscious tenants commercial property. Moreover, as Plan. This aimed to use the Mass Rapid to consider relocating to the Fringes. the workforce becomes increasingly 40k Transit (MRT) rail system to establish Consistent with the experience in New dominated by tech-savvy Millennials, 30% business centres outside the crowded York and London, the TMT (Technology, companies need to change the way they 30k CBD area, creating new suburban and Media and Telecoms) sector defied work. This will mean a rethink in how peripheral office markets. decentralisation and made its foray into firms lay out their offices, where they “TECHNOLOGY FIRMS ARE IN Decentralisation resulted in an expanded commercial real estate the CBD. Office rents peaked in Q1 2015, amid are located, and how much technology is incorporated into the workplace (and 20k 20% OUR VIEW A STRONG SOURCE market. Within the past 15 years, total office space stock in Singapore grew slowing demand and consolidation of office space in the face of an economic indeed in public areas, and the home). This will buoy technology firms and in 10k 10% OF FUTURE DEMAND” by 24% to 81.6 million sq ft (see graph), although in the Fringe area, stock slowdown in the Asia Pacific region. However, over the long-term we see turn generate office demand, probably with more of a CBD bias, given the 0 0% H1 2015 2000 2006 2008 2009 2003 2005 2002 2004 2007 2001 2010 2013 2012 2014 2011
G AT E WAY CI T I E S Shoreditch 51.5072° N, 0.1275° W 26.3% LONDON 020 021 Office rental growth 20 21 Noho TRANSPORT HUBS Euston Q3 07 to Q2 15 17.4% Crossrail 1 intersects with the Thameslink rail 34.8% Office rental growth Q3 07 to Q2 15 upgrade at Farringdon, creating a new travel hub. Crossrail 2 would meet Crossrail 1 at Tottenham Court Road, then Thameslink at St Pancras, producing two more interchange hot spots. Office rental growth Q3 07 to Q2 15 City Core London is being transformed by a new wave of creative firms and rail links 2.4% Aldgate WRITTEN BY Soho Office rental growth Q3 07 to Q2 15 15.1% Office rental growth 12.5% Q3 07 to Q2 15 Patrick Scanlon, Partner, Central London Research, Knight Frank Office rental growth Q3 07 to Q2 15 The third quarter of 2007 was the time HEATHROW AIRPORT DEVELOPMENT that the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) Heathrow is a major business centre Since 2000, central London has seen reached London, as confidence in the as well as a transport hub. There is more more than 70 million sq ft of new offices banking sector slumped. However, eight office stock in the surrounding area than built. This is more than the total office years later, the office market is thriving. there is in the CBD of Birmingham, stock of Singapore. Yet London’s vacancy London’s economy is being driven by the U.K.’s second largest city. rate is falling and at a 14 year low. a new wave of technology and creative firms who are shaping the digital Mayfair Holborn age. The last year has also seen more 7.0% 14.8% traditional financial and professional occupiers initiating office searches, which demonstrates broadening demand. Office rental growth Comparing rents today with Q3 2007, Q3 07 to Q2 15 Office rental growth Q3 07 to Q2 15 the strongest growth has occurred in the areas popular with the technology and creative industries. Noho is a former garments industry district that is now home to many leading creative firms. Prime rents are 35% higher today Southbank compared to Q3 2007. Shoreditch, another CROSSRAIL 1 19.8% former industrial area, is a hub for start- London’s under construction east-west up technology firms. Office rents there rail line opens in 2018. We expect a boost are 26% above their pre-GFC peak. for office rents near Crossrail stations in Office rental growth Infrastructure projects abound in London. the 2017 to 2019 period, i.e. just before Q3 07 to Q2 15 The development potential of the Nine and after services commence. Elms corridor is being unlocked thanks to a planned new underground rail line Paddington to the Battersea Power Station site. With the Crossrail 1 and Thameslink upgrade railway projects under construction, we are seeing the development of a transport hub running from Tottenham Court Road -7.7% Office rental growth Q3 07 to Q2 15 BATTERSEA & NINE ELMS Plans for a new U.S. Embassy, extensive mixed-use schemes, a new underground to Farringdon to King’s Cross. This hub rail line, and redevelopment of the would be boosted further if the proposed iconic Battersea Power Station site, will Crossrail 2 receives government approval. transform this former industrial area. Source: Knight Frank Research
G AT E WAY CI T I E S CBD, CBD2 AND POTENTIAL LOCATION OF CBD3 Source: Knight Frank Research 22.2783° N, 114.1747° E 22 23 Kowloon East NEW HORIZONS FOR (CBD2) Victoria Harbour HONG KONG East Lantau Metropolis Central Victoria Harbour, (CBD3) CBD Hong Kong Hong Kong Island A shortage of office space and high Land shortage in Hong Kong is where net effective rents rose above supporting policies, such as land Meanwhile, a new East Lantau NEW CBDs W ILL FURTHER a widely known problem for the U.S.$186 per sq ft per annum recently. rezoning, improvement of connectivity Metropolis is proposed to become the ENH A NCE CENTR A L rents in the city’s Central Business densely populated city. Limited Manufacturing firms shifting and enhanced urban design, have also third core business area over the next District are leading to decentralisation office availability in the CBD, operations to mainland China have accelerated the redevelopment process 50 years. In the latest policy address, In the coming years, emerging CBDs in the area. As an emerging business the government announced its plan will continue to witness rapid growth also known as Central, means it is left Kowloon East with many vacant WRITTEN BY district with abundant supply, Kowloon to reclaim a 1,000 hectare manmade and help alleviate the office shortage becoming increasingly difficult to industrial buildings. In order to Pamela Tsui, problem in the Central CBD. Given the fulfil multinational companies’ rising alleviate Hong Kong’s office supply East’s office rents are still as low as island in waters between Hong Kong Senior Manager, Research & Consultancy, considerable rental gap between various Greater China, Knight Frank demand for business space. With the shortage, the government announced U.S.$46.50 per sq ft per annum. Island and Lantau Island. business districts, this decentralisation highest prime office rents across the an initiative to develop Kowloon East THE NEW CBDs CA NNOT trend is expected to continue. globe, Hong Kong also creates a major into CBD2 in 2012. Many former challenge for firms who wish to set up factories have been redeveloped as “KOWLOON EAST HAS NOW R EPL ACE CENT R A L History has proven that once the rental gap between core and decentralised offices there – especially in Central, high quality office buildings. Other BECOME THE SECOND Despite the concentration of quality stock and attractive rents, we believe business areas has narrowed, the OFFICE RENTS IN CENTRAL AND KOWLOON EAST Source: Knight Frank Research LARGEST BUSINESS AREA CBD2 cannot replace Central in the short-term because only some firms decentralisation process slows down as companies have less incentive to 180 AFTER CENTRAL” or operations (e.g. back offices) prefer relocating to Kowloon East. Some relocate their offices, especially when increasing relocation costs are taken into Central Kowloon East consideration. Therefore, Central’s role as industries will opt to stay in Central due 160 Thanks to the ample supply of new the prime office district and commercial to company image, transport accessibility offices, and the significant rent hub in Hong Kong is unlikely to be and proximity to related business clusters 140 discount compared to Central, many replaced in the short to medium-term. – law, accounting and financial firms companies that are anxious to control usually locate together. CBD2 will not In the long-term, although 120 decentralisation will remain one of costs have relocated to Kowloon East in replace Central as it still needs further recent years. development in area image, connectivity the most important trends changing HK$/sq ft/month 100 Kowloon East has now become the and business clusters, which cannot be the landscape of the Hong Kong office 80 second largest business area after achieved in a short period of time. As market, we believe emerging CBDs Central in terms of Grade A office stock. for CBD3, it will take several years to will serve as complements, rather than 60 With many upcoming development complete, and the developments are direct competitors, to Central. projects in Kowloon East, the total expected to be mainly residential and 40 amount of Grade A office space in the retail. As a result, there is little prospect 20 area is expected to overtake Central of it ever replacing Central as Hong within the coming decade. Kong’s prime commercial location. 2006 2008 2009 2003 2005 2004 2007 0 2010 2013 2015 2012 2014 2011
G AT E WAY CI T I E S Le Cargo, Paris, France 48.8567° N, 2.3508° E 24 25 PARIS Commuting through the business district, Paris, France 377,000 sq ft of shared space will be made available to start-ups in this entirely private investment, headed by a leading French business tycoon. Expectations are high in this area of strong demand. France and its capital city stand out at at a European level in terms of the number and vitality of tech start-ups. At the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) 2015 in Las Vegas, the largest tech event in the world, France, with 120 exhibitors, had the greatest presence among European countries WRITTEN BY - far ahead of Germany (39) and the Cyril Robert, United Kingdom (33). In Eureka Park, Head of Research, Knight Frank France the section dedicated to emerging start- ups, one in four businesses were French. Naturally, some of these companies come The Cargo has landed in the from outside Paris, but the Paris tech 19th arrondissement of Paris scene is particularly vibrant and always on the lookout for growth opportunities. With more than 160,000 sq ft across six plays a vital role in this new world, Paris has launched the first Paris French floors, The Cargo is the largest start- PARIS OFFICE VACANCY RATES drawing on its own mechanisms, players, Tech Ticket competition targeted at up incubator yet in the French capital. Source: Knight Frank Research organisation and working methods. foreign businesses wishing to join the Moored alongside the impressive 2,000 ft Businesses aim to attract high flying young Paris tech scene. CBD Paris Region professionals by offering a workplace long Macdonald warehouse, The Cargo fits Innovative businesses are flocking to in perfectly with other ship-like structures 8.1% that is fun, fluid and part of the work- areas which were previously economically 8.0% 8.0% in the area. The Macdonald industrial life balance. The aim is to blur the lines disadvantaged and working class, where 8% 7.7% building from the 1960s is currently between work and leisure, which leads to there was little interest in the commercial 7.3% undergoing a major transformation, less clock watching and reduced hierarchy. property market until now: from the north 7.1% 7.1% 7.1% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 6.9% harbouring a secondary school, over 7% The Cargo is designed with the challenge to the south of Paris, from the 13th to the 1,000 housing units, 355,000 sq ft of posed by the sociologist Bruno Marzloff 19th arrondissement, and along the ring retail, as well as 290,000 sq ft of office in mind: we need to rethink the work road that defines the city limits. These 6.0% space. The office element has recently 6% that makes a city. As a result of this areas form an arch of innovation which become home to hundreds of employees changed approach to work and urban is being actively promoted by the local of a leading financial institution. This living, offices, public and private spaces, authorities. It boasts competitively priced 4.9% port is the gateway to the future, the 5% neighbourhoods and even the city will property, development opportunities and Paris of tomorrow: mixed-use, hi-tech, undergo a profound transformation 4.3% an increasingly young and trendy feel. A environmentally friendly, plugged in, towards greater openness, equality, and number of new developments are coming multi-sector and socially inclusive – 4% a stronger community spirit: longer to these areas, with a call for proposals a smart city. opening hours and more services, new from teams backed by investors, with The Cargo clearly has flagship status, ways of using them and emerging roles. local authorities entrusting the projects 3% with its high specification, and portholes to the most innovative bidder. Even the “YES, THE REVOLUTION Business district This major change is no work of science for maritime effect. It is part of the new in Paris, France fiction. The Cargo is not an isolated step in tower block is no longer a dirty word. In urban model, which acknowledges that this process: the various co-working spaces June, the Paris City Council approved 2% businesses are made up of individuals are another example of this new movement the Triangle tower project led by Unibail whose wider needs have to be catered for. This includes homes, shops and leisure facilities, that are all close to 1% IS HERE!” for a radical step away from traditional office buildings – a phenomenon that is still in its infancy. However, The Cargo Rodamco. This 590 ft skyscraper, located at Porte de Versailles (15th arrondissement) and designed by the architects, Herzog work. Via a workplace that is integrated will not remain Paris’s largest incubator and de Meuron, will be the first mixed-use into an individual’s daily life, companies 0% for long. With the Halle Freyssinet due to new generation skyscraper to grace the forge links with their employees, and a open its doors in the 13th arrondissement Parisian skyline. H2 2008 H2 2009 H1 2008 H1 2009 H2 2010 H2 2013 H2 2012 H2 2014 H1 2010 H1 2013 H1 2015 H2 2011 H1 2012 H1 2014 H1 2011 community is born. The new economy of Paris in just over a year, more than Yes, the revolution is here!
GL OBA L O CC U PI E R S 26 27 In the future, the office will principally be a place that generates staff satisfaction and interaction WRITTEN BY James Roberts, Chief Economist, Knight Frank How businesses view their offices has figure, with the average newly qualified changed enormously in the past two commercial lawyer earning U.S.$91,000, decades. Previously the emphasis was according to recruitment firm Michael on cost control. Firms looked for ways Page, suggesting a replacement cost of to pack more desks on to floors, and nearly U.S.$143,000. there was a trend towards relocating Given that the cost to the business jobs from expensive Central Business of replacing the worker vastly Districts (CBDs) to lower cost out-of- overshadows property costs, more firms town office markets. However, today are questioning the logic of achieving a firms are more conscious of the role small saving by moving to a peripheral the workplace plays in controlling a business location if it increases staff far bigger business cost - namely staff turnover. There are even examples of retention. This is reversing the out- firms choosing to move out-of-town jobs of-town trend, and transforming the into more expensive CBD areas in order perception of the office from a business to appeal to a broader talent pool. expense into a place that firms use to inspire and energise their staff. LOSING STA FF “THERE ARE EVEN IS EX PENSI V E EXAMPLES OF FIRMS A study by Oxford Economics found that the cost of replacing a member of CHOOSING TO MOVE staff averages U.S.$50,000, with over 80% of the cost in lost output while OUT-OF-TOWN JOBS INTO MORE EXPENSIVE FUTURE BREAKING the new employee gets up to speed. If the new worker is in a leadership or rainmaking role, this loss of output could have a trickledown effect on other CBD AREAS IN ORDER TO staff who are reliant upon that person for work generation or guidance. APPEAL TO A BROADER On top of the replacement cost, there is also the loss of value that goes out the TALENT POOL” door with the departing employee, such AC TI V IT Y-BA SED WOR K I NG OFFICES THE MOULD as training, knowledge, reputation, and client relationships. Some studies estimate Indeed, transforming the office into an the total cost of losing an employee can be inspiring and enjoyable place to work equivalent of 150% of salary. is now seen as a cost effective means of For a typical office worker in London, retaining staff. In Europe and North the total cost of their workstation in rent, America, technology and media firms local taxes and service charge, is around were the first to break the mould, and U.S.$16,000 per annum. The median bring free buffets, exercise areas, spiral salary in London is U.S.$54,000, so based staircases, games rooms, and sofas into the on the 150% figure, their replacement cost office, and now more traditional industries is U.S.$81,000 or five times the cost of a are following suit. workstation. Most professional workers earn far more than the U.S.$54,000 CONTINUED ON 28-29
GL OBA L O CC U PI E R S 29 28 CONTINUED FROM 26-27 FCB, Chicago, U.S. In Australia, the financial sector has led worker for those actually in the office, this movement away from the desk, known but based on the assumption that as activity-based working (or ABW), which a percentage of staff will be out of beckons the question: will all industries the office at any given time. eventually go down this route? D O Y O U R E A L LY Levels of adoption of ABW vary from NEED A DESK? one city to the next. In some European cities, where the office stock contains a Cutting the bond to a personal desk is lot of historic buildings, internal walls allowing firms who fully embrace ABW to sometimes can hinder adopting ABW. take a lower multiple of space compared Another issue is when lease expiries fall, to total staff. This does not mean that as it is during a relocation that a company firms will need less office space in the has to acquire a new fit-out, making it the Atlas Holdings, future, as the total workforce continues to time for a radical change. Consequently, Greenwich, expand over the long-term in most Global the shift to ABW will be gradual – not Conneticut, U.S. Cities. Irrespective of whether they earthquake – in any market. allocate 90 or 100 sq ft for each additional worker, a firm still needs to acquire more ON T O PH A SE T WO space as it grows. However, the multiple The first wave of ABW was about of space per worker is probably going to breaking down barriers in the office, fall, as companies will utilise absence to and creating a communal atmosphere. offer a spacious office to those who are However, we are now seeing a second actually at work. phase that builds on the experiences of The net result is that companies are phase one. By removing the partitions achieving highly efficient offices, but and increasing the level of interaction, staying in the more expensive CBD noise is becoming an issue for those areas. This allows staff to enjoy all the who need some quiet time to write a report. Some firms have found that by “TRANSFORMING THE OFFICE amenities available in city centres, and indeed that amenity offering supports INTO AN INSPIRING AND removing cellular offices they lost a raft the companies’ own activities. In any of unofficial meeting rooms, placing Global City, the cafés and restaurants extra strain on the actual meeting are actually the unofficial meeting rooms. So, interestingly, the next wave of ABW is now putting some barriers ENJOYABLE PLACE TO WORK IS rooms of the business community, while their sports and cultural venues are NOW SEEN AS A COST-EFFECTIVE back in, introducing quiet areas and used by firms in their marketing mix. A private booths. company distances itself from all these We are also now seeing more firms ‘beyond-the-office’ benefits of the big who are going down the ABW route aiming to provide more space per MEANS OF RETAINING STAFF” Draft Inc, Tokyo, Japan city when it moves to a business park. CONTINUED ON 30 EGO SPACE FOR THE BOSS? A Hong Kong executive in an advertising firm gets four 4:1 1.9:1 1.9:1 1.5:1 1:1 times more office space than his secretary, but in Sydney the boss and PA get about the same. Here is the ‘boss to support staff’ office space ratio from ad firms around the world Executive Support staff Source: Knight Frank Research / Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research HONG KONG LONDON SHANGHAI NEW YORK SY D N EY
GL OBA L O CC U PI E R S 30 31 CONTINUED FROM CROWD 28-29 CH A LLENGING PA S T C O N V E N T I O N S OFFICE SPACE ALLOCATION Around the world we see huge IN CORPORATE HQs IN VARIOUS GLOBAL CITIES (IN SQ FT) disparities in how offices are occupied. WORKING These typically reflect cultural 225 150 100 differences, and the extent of those SAN variations was not widely known FRANCISCO when globalisation was in its earlier Executive Professional Support stages. Twenty years ago, a senior partner in a Chicago law firm with no overseas offices was probably unaware that lawyers in London occupied 250 150 100 far less office space per worker. The rise and rise of collaborative offices As businesses merge and expand NEW YORK CITY WRITTEN BY into global networks, and staff are Executive Professional Support James Roberts, transferred overseas, awareness of the Chief Economist, Knight Frank Level39 offices, differences grow. London Previous conventions on office occupation are being called into 180 120 100 New technology has been bringing question. Knight Frank figures show previously unconnected people together to that a professional worker in a Hong LONDON achieve things. We have crowd sourcing to Kong corporation is typically occupying Executive Professional Support develop ideas, and crowd funding to raise 200 sq ft in a cellular office, but his money. Now a new type of office is bringing Shanghai equivalent occupies 160 sq people together, often in the service of ft in a cubicle. Meanwhile his Sydney advancing the tech economy. equivalent occupies 120 ft in open 250 200 100 Collaborative offices are the real estate plan. How long before firms with equivalent of crowd sourcing, but HONG global networks start asking why there KONG in the form of a rather cool serviced should be so much difference in office Executive Professional Support office. An office space is fitted out with occupation by people doing much the a combination of meeting rooms, hot same job? desks, and lots activity-based working In the Global Cities, firms are thinking (ABW) space, with sofas and communal 220 160 120 tables. Entrepreneurs then take out long-term and planning for headcount growth again, and they want their offices memberships allowing different levels to help keep staff happy and reduce SHANGHAI of access, where they will mingle with headcount attrition (which costs firms far Executive Professional Support other people running their own firms. more than rents do). They want to reduce The fit-out is often unashamedly targeted the per-person ratio of occupation, but towards Millennials, and the tech and WeWork offices, the wider idea pool of their co-workers, in insurance locations. In New York City, packing people in with ever-smaller creative industries. London the same way staff in larger companies WeWork has 2 million sq ft of office space. 222 111 89 desks does not make for a conducive Some entrepreneurs pay by the hour to can when in the office. WeWork is also branching out from flexible working environment, and relocations use a café area with wifi, while others pay While collaborative offices first emerged working to flexible living. It has established out-of-town can be unpopular. ABW MADRID monthly fees for all day access and wider in San Francisco, driven by technology a new short-stay apartment format, known offers a solution, providing more space Executive Professional Support ranging services. entrepreneur demand, the past few years as WeLive, in two buildings where its for people to work in by utilising the fact The concept is proof that offices are a have seen the format go global. Having collaborative offices are found – one in that a proportion of staff are not in the necessity for any business, and the benefits begun operations in New York in 2010, Washington DC, the other in Downtown office at any given time. 120 120 120 they offer stretch beyond providing WeWork has since opened in 11 other Manhattan. A WeWork pre-let in the The extent to which ABW is embraced somewhere to log on to a computer. U.S. cities, as well as in the U.K., the Brooklyn Navy Yard will also include will always vary from one company to Entrepreneurs check into collaborative Netherlands and Israel. A year ago, they WeLive apartments. SYDNEY the next, but its influence is spreading Executive Professional Support offices as they want the intellectual had no presence in London, but WeWork To add to crowd sourcing, and crowd across industries and throughout the synergies that arise as people converse now has over 320,000 sq ft of office space funding, we can now add crowd living. globe. Thus the future office will be and trade ideas in a working environment. there; some of it in technology and media Source: Knight Frank Research / Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research dominated less by the desk, and more Note: Corporate HQ is defined as the head office of an industrial, energy, By banding together in communal office districts like Soho and Whitechapel, but by the comfortable sofa. or manufacturing conglomerate. space, entrepreneurs are thus able to access also in more traditional financial and
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