GLOBAL CITIES THE 2016 REPORT - THE FUTURE OF REAL ESTATE IN THE WORLD'S LEADING CITIES - Global Cities 2016 | Knight Frank

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GLOBAL CITIES THE 2016 REPORT - THE FUTURE OF REAL ESTATE IN THE WORLD'S LEADING CITIES - Global Cities 2016 | Knight Frank
G LO BA L CITIE S
                                 THE 2016 REPORT
                                                   GLOBAL
                                                   CITIES THE 2016 REPORT

                                                   THE FUTURE OF REAL ESTATE IN
                                                    THE WORLD’S LEADING CITIES
KNIGHTFRANK.COM/GLOBALCITIES
NGKF.COM/GLOBALCITIES
GLOBAL CITIES THE 2016 REPORT - THE FUTURE OF REAL ESTATE IN THE WORLD'S LEADING CITIES - Global Cities 2016 | Knight Frank
GL OBA L CI T I E S R E P ORT 2 016

                                      380
THE NUMBER OF NEW CITY DWELLERS
GLOBALLY IN THE NEXT FIVE YEARS.
THE EQUIVALENT OF THREE TIMES
THE POPULATION OF JAPAN            MILLION
GLOBAL CITIES THE 2016 REPORT - THE FUTURE OF REAL ESTATE IN THE WORLD'S LEADING CITIES - Global Cities 2016 | Knight Frank
GL OBA L CI T I E S R E P ORT 2 016

     TRAINS, PLANES
04

                                                                                                                                                                                         05
     AND GLOBAL CITIES
     Rapid population growth and infrastructure projects
     will create opportunities in cities around the world

                                        The UN is forecasting the world’s                 awash with cranes as airports, high
                                        cities to increase in population by 380           speed railways, underground railways,
                                        million people in the next five years.            port facilities, and power stations are
                                        Consequently, the planet will need to build       being constructed. Cities like Mumbai
                                        the equivalent of five cities the size of Los     and São Paulo are playing catch-up,
                                        Angeles every year between now and 2020,          bringing in the infrastructure to match
                                        and all the supporting infrastructure.            the rapid population growth. Mature
                                        The development potential of this rapid           centres like Paris and London, having
                                        urbanisation is huge, offering considerable       reversed population decline in the past
                                        opportunities to firms and investors that         are laying new rail lines in anticipation of
                                        operate globally.                                 swelling future numbers of commuters
                                                                                          and tourists. Places like Dubai and Beijing
                                        Knight Frank and Newmark Grubb Knight
     JOHN SNOW                                                                            are developing mega airports in order to
                                        Frank would like to brief you on what this
     Head of Commercial, Knight Frank                                                     maintain the momentum behind their
                                        will mean for your business. Consequently,
                                                                                          commercial success.
                                        we have asked our researchers around the
                                        globe, from Los Angeles to Delhi, from            Whatever the reasons behind the new
                                        São Paulo to Beijing, to draw together a          wave of infrastructure projects, they
                                        comprehensive outlook for real estate in          will reshape the Global Cities. New
                                        21 of the leading business cities. This is        business districts will emerge, creating
                                                                                          gentrification in former industrial
                                        Global Cities: The 2016 Report.
                                                                                          districts, and in turn necessitating the
                                        We also this year include a Watch List of         development of new homes, shopping
                                        five cities we believe are set to play a bigger   centres, leisure facilities, and offices. All
                                        role in the global business community in          this will be underpinned by an advanced
                                        the coming years. These up and coming             logistics system, which starts at the factory
                                        centres range from Nairobi in Kenya,              gate on one continent and ends with a
                                        which demonstrates Africa’s rapid                 home delivery thousands of miles away.
                                        modernisation, to Dubai in the U.A.E.,            Real estate will play an essential part in
                                        which has pulled clear of past difficulties       all of this, and Global Cities: The 2016
                                        and is expanding as a hub for investment,         Report aims to brief you on where the
     JAMES D. KUHN
                                        tourism and transport.                            opportunities are to be found. We hope
     President,
     Newmark Grubb Knight Frank         The cities covered by this report are very        this study will be a useful tool to assist with
                                        different in character, but a common              your business planning for 2016. Feel free
                                        theme among them is new infrastructure            to contact either of us should you wish to
                                        development. The Global Cities are                discuss the report’s conclusions further.

                                                                                                                                                                          Tokyo, Japan
GLOBAL CITIES THE 2016 REPORT - THE FUTURE OF REAL ESTATE IN THE WORLD'S LEADING CITIES - Global Cities 2016 | Knight Frank
GL OBA L CI T I E S R E P ORT 2 016
06

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    07
                                                                             CONTENTS
     SUPER CITIES
                                                                                                                     40 - 41                                                GLOBAL CITIES

     08 - 11	The Super Cities                                                                                        Retail: All The                                       50 - 52 Asia Dashboard
              A new global economic cycle is fuelling the expansion of                                               World’s A Stage
                                                                                                                                                                            53       Mumbai
              cities. Which centres will benefit the most?
                                                                                                                                                                            54       Delhi
     12	Skyscraper Index
         Which is the most expensive city in the world to rent an                                                                                                           55       Bengaluru
         office that has a helicopter view?                                                                                                                                 56       Shanghai
     13 - 15	Five Global Infrastructure Projects                                                                                                                           57       Beijing
              Across the world, the development of rail lines, seaports,
              and airports, looks set to create new business hubs.                                                                                                          58 - 59 Australia Dashboard

                                                                             26 - 30               08 - 11
                                                                                                                                                                            60       Sydney
     GATEWAY CITIES                                                                                                                                                        61       Melbourne
                                                                             Future Offices:      The Super Cities
     16 - 17 New York City                                                   Breaking The Mould                                                                             62       Tokyo

     18 - 19 Singapore                                                                                                                                                      63 - 65 U.S. Dashboard

     20 - 21 London                                                                                                                                                         66       San Francisco

     22 - 23 Hong Kong                                                                                                                                                      67       Los Angeles

     24 - 25 Paris                                                                                                                                                          68       Washington, DC
                                                                                                                                                          48 - 49           69       Chicago
     GLOBAL OCCUPIERS                                                                                                                                    Architecture Of   70       Mexico City
                                                                                                                                                          Inclusivity
     26 - 30	Future Offices: Breaking The Mould                                                                                                                            71       São Paulo
              The office is being transformed beyond recognition as firms                                                                                                   72 - 73 Europe Dashboard
              strive to create an inspiring workplace.
                                                                                                                                                                            74       Frankfurt
     31	Crowd Working
                                                                                                                                                                            75       Madrid
         Collaborative offices are rising fast around the world as the
         number of start-ups mushrooms.
     32 - 33	The Sydney Office                                                                                                                                             WATCH LIST
              Sydney is a trailblazer for activity-based working, where
              sofas are making desks redundant.                                                                                                                             76 - 77 Dubai
                                                                                                                                                                            78       Kuala Lumpur
     GLOBAL CAPITAL MARKETS
                                                                                                                                                                            79       Bangkok
     34 - 38 	Five Future Trends In Capital Markets
               From specialist property, to short income assets, to mixed-
               use; here are five opportunities in real estate investment.
                                                                                                                                        42 - 47                             80
                                                                                                                                                                            81
                                                                                                                                                                                     Nairobi
                                                                                                                                                                                     Moscow
                                                                                                                                        Flexible Living
     39	Global Megatrends
         Mike Sales, CEO of TH Real Estate, looks at the seismic                                                                                                            POST SCRIPT
         changes in the global property market.
     40 - 41	Retail: All The World’s A Stage                                                                                                                               82       About The Group
              More retailers are looking to expand abroad, and must learn
                                                                                                                                                                            83       Contributors and Important Notice
              the dynamics of new real estate markets.

     RESIDENTIAL                                                                                                                                                           GLOSSARY
     42 - 47	Flexible Living
                                                                                                                                                                            ABW:     Activity-Based Working
              With more people living away from home for long periods
              of time, the need for flexible apartments is growing.                                                                                                         Bn:      Billions
                                                                                                                                                                            CBD:     Central Business District
     FEATURE INTERVIEW                                                                                                                                                     GDP:     Gross Domestic Product
                                                                                                                                                                            GFC:     Global Financial Crisis
     48 - 49	Architecture Of Inclusivity                                                                                                                                   LHS:     Left Hand Scale
              Architect, Zaha Hadid, discusses how architects can help                                                                                                      M:       Millions
              build an inclusive modern city.
                                                                                                                                                                            PSF:     Per Square Foot
                                                                                                                                                                            RHS:     Right Hand Scale
                                                                             34 - 38                                                                                        Sq ft:
                                                                                                                                                                            TAMI:
                                                                                                                                                                                     Square Feet
                                                                                                                                                                                     Technology, Advertising, Media & Information
                                                                             Five Future Trends
                                                                             In Capital Markets                                                                             TMT:     Technology, Media and Telecoms

                                                                                                                                                                            See important notice at the end of this report
GLOBAL CITIES THE 2016 REPORT - THE FUTURE OF REAL ESTATE IN THE WORLD'S LEADING CITIES - Global Cities 2016 | Knight Frank
SU PE R CI T I E S

                                                                                                                                    09
08

                                 The Global Cities are about to see huge growth,
                                 and their real estate markets need to be ready for
                                 new waves of citizens, firms and global investors
                                       WRITTEN BY
                                       James Roberts,
                                       Chief Economist, Knight Frank

                                 The UN is forecasting the global urban            Expansion for the newer emerging market
                                 population to grow by 380 million people          cities will probably be funded by local
                                 by 2020, which if correct means demand            investors. International investment is more
                                 for city real estate is about to surge. The       likely to look at either established centres
                                 development potential of this forecast            or the emerging cities that have moved into
                                 growth is huge, when one considers all the        the global league, like Beijing or Bengaluru.
                                 new homes, offices, shops, logistics centres      This is not to say the developing world
                                 and infrastructure projects that such rapid       does not offer opportunities. There
                                 expansion would necessitate.                      can be the opportunity to exploit
                                 Cities in high-income countries are               transformational change if rapid growth
                                 projected to rise in population by 34             is well managed. Indeed, on satellite
                                 million by 2020, the equivalent of three          maps there is now an identifiable super
                                 cities the size of Paris. City populations in     city along China’s Pearl River delta,
                                 middle-income countries are forecast to           encompassing Hong Kong, Shenzhen,
                                 increase by 290 million people over the           Guangzhou and Macao, that is home
                                 same period, which is about 12 cities the         to an estimated 120 million people.
                                 size of Shanghai.                                 With the UN predicting China’s urban
                                                                                   population to grow by 95 million by 2020,
                                  THE INVESTOR’S DILEMMA                           more super cities will appear. Similarly,
                                 The dilemma faced by today’s global real          Indian government policy is pushing an
                                 estate investor is whether to buy into            ‘industrial corridor’ between Mumbai
                                 the slower growth established cities in           and Delhi.
                                 the high-income countries, or the faster          Therefore, we expect property
                                 growing but riskier emerging markets.             investors to seek a balance of growth
                                 While the rapid growth in emerging                and diversification in a global
                                 markets speaks for itself, the strengths of       property portfolio.
                                 the mature cities are sometimes overlooked.
                                                                                    SOURCES OF CAPITAL
                                 While Shanghai has more than twice the
                                 population of Paris, GDP per capita is            Next year, we expect two major sources
                                 four times higher in the French capital, a        of capital to be particularly active, namely
                                 consideration when buying lifestyle-related       North American money into the global
                                 property like retail or leisure.                  market and opportunist domestic money
                                 Also, rather than anyone building a ‘new          in Europe.
                                 Paris’, in wealthier countries we expect          The dollar has strengthened on currency
                                 new city dwellers to settle in existing           markets, while the spread between U.S.
                                 cities that will expand accordingly. Being        real estate and bond yields has narrowed.
                                 long-established centres, they will find          Recent economic indicators suggest
                                 international investors willing to fund           that the Eurozone is through the worst,
                                 the necessary development. In emerging            and we expect U.S. capital to look to
                                 markets, where towns can transform into           exploit recovery opportunities. Current
                                 cities in a few years, a share of the projected   evidence suggests a pattern of both
                                 growth could be in cities that are so new it      direct investment and providing non-
                                 would be ambitious for an overseas investor       bank finance.
                                 to buy there. Since 1990, an estimated
                                 470 new cities have been established in
                                 Asia, of which 393 were in China and India.       CONTINUED ON                             10-11

     The Bund, Shanghai, China
GLOBAL CITIES THE 2016 REPORT - THE FUTURE OF REAL ESTATE IN THE WORLD'S LEADING CITIES - Global Cities 2016 | Knight Frank
SU PE R CI T I E S                                                                                                                                                        SU PE R CI T I E S

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           PRIME YIELDS - END OF 2015 FORECAST
10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           12
            CONTINUED FROM                                                                                                              08-09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              to free food and yoga areas. Fit-out is          is seeing multiple economic cycles set

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          SKYSCRAPER
            We also believe more European money                                                                                                                            Regent Street,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Source: Knight Frank Research, Newmark Grubb Knight                                changing to match how people work, with          at different stages. A diverse investment
                                                                                                                                                                           London, U.K.
            will re-enter the property market,                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Frank Research, Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Research Institute                           informal meeting areas displacing desks.         portfolio, or office network in the case of
            given the very low level of government                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             the occupier, is the best way of being able
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              The move towards non-desk workspace is
            bond yields. This has made property                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                to catch the next rising tide.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              delivering efficiency savings. In Sydney,
            yields look comparatively high, which                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Bengaluru       10.5%   a growing number of firms are no longer          To exploit these opportunities, investors
            is drawing buyers into the market. As a
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              providing desks for all their workers. This is   and occupiers need to be operating in
            result, in many European markets sales
            volumes are picking up, and prices are                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Mumbai           10%    based on the idea that a percentage of staff     cities that have the flexibility to respond

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          INDEX
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              are not in the office at any given time, and     to their changing needs. A city must have
            once again rising.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              non-desk work areas can cater for a fluid        a dynamic labour market for the occupier
            Expectations of how low property                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Delhi           9.5%    traffic of those who come and go during the      to recruit the right workers, while
            investment yields can go are about to                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             course of a day.                                 investors need a fluid investment market
            be tested, given we have seen negative                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             to deploy funds or exit with speed.
            yields for some European bonds in 2015.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Mexico City       7%    In the future, rather than consisting
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              of rows of desks, the office could be an         For both the investor and the occupier
            In London, property yields have fallen
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              expansive series of meeting places –             the Global Cities are a strong option.
            below 2007 levels while still maintaining                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Beijing         6.3%    some built around chance encounters,             They offer liquidity to the investor
            a healthy spread over government bonds.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              others more formal or designed for quiet         and wholesale access to workers and
            This is because old norms on pricing have                                                                                                                                                                               general rising tide in the global economy                                                                                               Also, among occupiers in the sub-20,000
            been rendered obsolete by a changed                                                                                                                                                                                     prior to the GFC, today growth is patchy                                                                                                sq ft size bracket we are seeing more
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Shanghai        6.3%    concentration. Firms need to adapt               customers to the occupier. Those who
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              to these workplace changes that can              view themselves as global operators will

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           “LONDON RECORDED THE HIGHEST
            financial landscape, and economic                                                                                                                                                                                       and good news in one geographic region                                                                                                  office deals by firms that blur the lines                                                                                         improve communication, raise the quality         always want a presence in the 26 cities                    London and San Francisco are
            recovery should spread this effect to                                                                                                                                                                                   is usually counterbalanced by slowdown                                                                                                  between technology and other industries.                                                                  Melbourne       5.9%    of life in the office, and save money.           discussed in this report.                                  seeing the fastest rental growth
            other cities in Europe.                                                                                                                                                                                                 elsewhere. Companies need to be able                                                                                                    These are often technology-driven media

               OCCUPIERS LOOK ABROAD
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    to redeploy capital and people around
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    the world according to where the next
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            companies, and FinTech firms that bridge
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            the worlds of finance and IT.                                                                             Sydney          5.7%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               DI V ER SI F IC ATION
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               A ND FLEX IBILIT Y
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          for high-rise offices                                                               RENTAL GROWTH - NEARLY 11%”
            Just as real estate investors are looking                                                                                                                                                                               opportunity is appearing.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              The key words are now diversification
            further afield for opportunities, so are                                                                                                                                                                                Office demand is in many markets                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Chicago         5.4%
            corporate occupiers.                                                                                                                                                                                                    coming from new sources. The new wave                                                                                                   “CITIES IN HIGH INCOME                                                                                                            and flexibility. Both investors and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              occupiers need to be able to quickly                                                                        In our latest Skyscraper Index, based                        City            Prime rent (U.S.$/sq ft/yr)   Six months growth*
            New patterns of economic growth since
            the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) have
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    of technology firms that have driven the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    North American and U.K. office markets                                                                                                  COUNTRIES ARE FORECAST                                                                                    Washington DC     5%    redeploy to wherever in the world growth
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              is appearing, given the global economy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          on Q2 2015 data, Hong Kong retains
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          the title of the most expensive place
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Hong Kong       $255.50                       1.9%
            created extra pressures on companies
            to operate worldwide. In contrast to the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    in recent years are now setting up
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    outposts in Asia and continental Europe.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            TO RISE IN POPULATION BY 34                                                                               Los Angeles     4.9%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          in the world to rent office space in a
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          tower building. However, other cities
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       New York City
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Tokyo
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       $153.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       $125.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     3.4%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            MILLION PEOPLE BY 2020”
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Pudong district, Shanghai, China
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          are seeing considerably greater rental                       London          $122.00                       10.7%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          growth, reflecting stronger office
            OFFICE RENTS - CHANGE ON 2007 BASED ON END OF 2015 FORECAST                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Frankfurt       4.5%                                                                                                                markets elsewhere in the world.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       San Francisco   $105.00                       8.2%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Flexible offices are another growth area,                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Singapore       $93.25                        1.2%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          London recorded the highest level of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Source: Knight Frank Research, Newmark Grubb Knight                                          particularly collaborative offices. These                                                                 London            4%                                                                                                                rental growth – nearly 11% in the six
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Sydney          $86.50                        0.7%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Frank Research, Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Research Institute                                        operate like tech incubators, where                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Moscow          $79.00                        0.0%
            BEIJING 67.9%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          months to June. This is partly thanks
                            SAN FRANCISCO 54.0%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            independent entrepreneurs work side                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Boston          $75.00                        0.0%
     80%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    by side in a communal office.                                                                             Madrid            4%                                                                                                                to a buoyant occupier market, which
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          has left the vacancy rate at a 14 year                       Los Angeles     $73.00                        0.0%
     70%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  low. Also, several high profile new                          Shanghai        $72.75                        5.3%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             NO GUARANTEE OF A DESK
     60%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      New York City     4%                                                                                                                tower completions have delivered
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Many occupiers increasingly view offices                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Chicago         $68.00                        4.6%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          space to the market capable of setting
                                                  MELBOURNE 22.6%

     50%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    as an effective means of controlling the                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Beijing         $67.00                        -1.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            bigger and more damaging business cost
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      San Francisco     4%                                                                                                                new benchmark levels for rents.
                                                                                                  WASHINGTON DC 8.3%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Paris           $56.75                        1.9%
                                                                    SYDNEY 18.4%

     40%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Hot on the heels of London is San
                                                                                   LONDON 10.2%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            of staff attrition. Whereas in the past an
                                                                                                                       BENGALURU 8.2%

                                                                                                                                        MEXICO CITY 7.3%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Francisco, where the office market                           Frankfurt       $53.25                        0.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      NEW YORK CITY -1.3%

     30%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Singapore       3.7%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         SINGAPORE -38.9%
                                                                                                                                                                              LOS ANGELES 1.0%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            office relocation was largely managed
                                                                                                                                                           SHANGHAI 2.8%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  HONG KONG -0.2%
                                                                                                                                                                                                 FRANKFURT 0.0%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          continues to benefit from the city’s                         Mumbai          $52.00                        1.3%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           MUMBAI -16.8%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         MADRID -35.7%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            CHICAGO -2.0%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          TOKYO -22.2%

     20%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    by the finance director, increasingly the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           DELHI -19.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             PARIS -8.9%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          expanding technology sector. Rental                          Melbourne       $46.25                        0.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            chief executive and the head of human
      10%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            resources are showing an interest, now                                                                    Tokyo           3.7%                                                                                                                growth for tower buildings exceeded
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Dubai           $43.50                        0.0%
      0%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  8%, which is considerably higher than
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            that staff retention is featuring within the                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Madrid          $38.50                        3.3%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          any other U.S. city in the study.
     -10%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   decision making process.                                                                                  Paris           3.5%                                                                                                                                                                             Taipei          $37.00                        0.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            The trend is towards a workplace that                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Seoul           $33.50                        2.8%
     -20%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            increases staff satisfaction, with features
     -30%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   that make the whole work experience
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Hong Kong       2.9%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          *Q4 2014 to Q2 2015, excluding exchange rate fluctuations.                                                               Source: Knight Frank Research, Newmark Grubb Knight
     -40%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   more pleasurable, from games rooms                                                                                                                                                                                                            Currency conversions as at 30/06/15                                                                                   Frank Research, Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Research Institute
GLOBAL CITIES THE 2016 REPORT - THE FUTURE OF REAL ESTATE IN THE WORLD'S LEADING CITIES - Global Cities 2016 | Knight Frank
SU PE R CI T I E S

                     GLOBAL
                                                                    WRITTEN BY
                                                                    James Roberts,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  SUPER
                                                                    Chief Economist,                                                                                                                       05     AIRPORTS
                                                                    Knight Frank

                     INFRASTRUCTURE
                                                                                                                                                       THE DELHI–MUMBAI                                   In Dubai, Al Maktoum International Airport, which

                                                                                                                                          14

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          15
                                                                                                                                                03
13

                                                                                                                                                       INDUSTRIAL CORRIDOR                                opened in 2010, is to be expanded from a current freight
                                                                                                                                                                                                          capacity of 1 million tons of cargo per annum to
                                                                                                                                               The Delhi–Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC)                16 million tons. Passenger services began in 2013, and the

                     PROJECTS
                                                                                                                                               is a development zone that will be targeted for            plan is to increase to 220 million passengers a year. Dubai
                                                                                                                                               investment to build up new industries to support           International, the world’s busiest airport, currently handles
                                                                                                                                               India’s rapid urbanisation. The project will be            around 72 million passengers. Al Maktoum is part of the
                                                                                                                                               partly backed by Japanese investment. The                  Dubai South, an economic freezone covering 56 square
                                                                                                                                               transport backbone will be a freight rail line             miles, which links up with the nearby Jebel Ali Port.
                                                                                                                                               called the Dedicated Western Freight Corridor,             Singapore’s Changi International Airport has a new fourth
                     With the world’s cities predicted to add 380 million                                                                      which is intended to push down logistics costs in
                     new citizens in the next five years, new mass transit                                                                                                                                terminal under construction, which will increase the
                                                                                                                                               the region.                                                airport’s capacity to 82 million passengers a year. Also,
                     systems, power and utilities, and faster connections to
                                                                                                                                               Along the corridor, smart cities are to be developed, as   plans are being advanced for a third runway at Hong Kong
                     markets will be needed. Here is our choice of the mega
                                                                                                                                               well as three new seaports and six airports. The city      International Airport, which would allow it to handle up
                     infrastructure projects that will be generating new                                                                       of Dholera has been declared a Special Investment          to 102 million passengers.
                     business clusters, and creating real estate opportunities                                                                 Region, with a target of tripling industrial output and
                                                                                                                                               quadrupling exports in the next five years. The long-
                                                                                                                                               term goal is to create a new mega city for India. IBM
                                                                                                                                               and Cisco have been contracted to transform Dholera
                                                                                                                                               into a smart city.

                                                                                                                                                       EXPANDING THE PANAMA
                                                                                                                                                04     AND SUEZ CANALS

                                                                                                                                               Presently ships queue up to transit the Panama
                                                                                                                                               Canal, whose original locks are restricted
                                                                                                                                               to ‘Panamax’ ships that carry around 5,000
                                                                                                                                               containers. A new set of locks completes
                                                                                                                                               construction in 2016 that will offer passage
                                                                                                                                               to ‘post-Panamax’ ships that can carry up
                                                                                                                                               to 13,000 containers. Port facilities around
                                                                                                                                               the world are being expanded to handle
                                                                                                                                               post-Panamax ships, creating development
             CHINA’S GLOBAL                                                                                                                    opportunities for real estate investors.
      01     RAILWAY LINKS                                                                                                                     The Suez Canal’s lane has just been doubled in
                                                                                                                                               width to allow ships to sail in both directions,
     China is using rail to speed up transporting freight to                                                                                   with plans to develop the land along its banks
     Europe on routes running through Russia, or via Iran                                                                                      into an industrial zone. There is also more
     and Turkey. By sea it takes cargo six weeks to travel from                             AFRICAN
     the inland manufacturing city of Chengdu to Europe, but
                                                                                       02   AMBITIONS
                                                                                                                                               traffic on the North East Passage, where ships
                                                                                                                                               follow icebreakers from Europe to Asia through
     now a rail freight service reaches Poland in two weeks.                                                                                   the Arctic Ocean. This could require new
     There is even a train service to Madrid from eastern                         A major infrastructure project in Kenya is LAPSSET
                                                                                                                                               logistics centres to serve the route.
     China that takes three weeks. To improve connections, a                      (Lamu Port and Lamu-South Sudan-Ethiopia
     U.S.$40 bn Silk Road Fund has been established to finance                    Transport Corridor). This consists of a new 30-berth
     infrastructure projects abroad.                                              port and oil refinery at Lamu, which will be
                                                                                  connected to Nairobi and the borders of Ethiopia
     There are also plans to link Kunming in southern China
                                                                                  and South Sudan by rail, road and oil pipelines. In
     to Singapore via several lines running through Myanmar,
                                                                                  Ethiopia, a new Chinese funded railway line between
     Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia. Further afield, China is
                                                                                  Addis Ababa and the Red Sea port of Djibouti is
     majority financing a new railway from the Kenyan port of
                                                                                  expected to begin operations in 2016. Work has just
     Mombasa to Nairobi, which is under construction. This all
                                                                                  completed in Addis Ababa on a light rail system for
     forms part of China’s ‘One Belt, One Road’ programme to
                                                                                  the city.
     enhance trade routes. As China diversifies its trade routes,
     new business hubs will appear, creating opportunities for                    In Nigeria, a Chinese firm has won the U.S.$12 bn
     property investors.                                                          contract to build an 870 mile railway between Lagos
                                                                                  in the west and Calabar in the east. Construction has
                                                                                  started on a new port to the east of Lagos at Lekki,
                                                                                  with phase one scheduled for completion in 2018.
GLOBAL CITIES THE 2016 REPORT - THE FUTURE OF REAL ESTATE IN THE WORLD'S LEADING CITIES - Global Cities 2016 | Knight Frank
G AT E WAY CI T I E S

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Lower Manhattan,          plan to extend the 7 train to 34th Street                                          government tenants, media and financial
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 New York City, U.S.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           and 11th Avenue, creating the level of                                             firms. Three World Trade Center is under
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           interconnectivity necessary to sustain                                             construction and will be anchored by
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           a business district on the Far West                                                global advertising giant, Group M. Two
       40.7127° N, 74.0059° W
16

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Side. Subsequently, various prominent                                              World Trade Center, which is still in the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           landlords, including Related Properties,                                           planning stages, has drawn significant
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Brookfield Properties, Tishman Speyer,                                             attention from News Corporation for
       Manhattan is experiencing                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Mitsui Fudosan and The Moinian                                                     approximately half of its proposed 2.8
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Group, have invested in developments                                               million sq ft of space.
       a transformational                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  surrounding the Hudson Yards site.                                                 Redevelopment of the World Trade
       wave of new development                                                                                                                                                                                                                             The Far West Side has drawn a number of                                            Center and its immediate vicinity
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           high-profile commitments from various                                              includes two new transit hubs, an 18 acre
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           industries, such as legal, technology,                                             memorial park and museum, and nearly
     NEW YORK CITY
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           creative and luxury goods, which enabled                                           600,000 sq ft of retail at three sites.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           construction to commence on additional                                             Westfield Group will open a 365,000 sq ft
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           towers and boosted the area’s visibility.                                          retail complex at the World Trade Center
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Coach, L’Oreal, SAP, Time Warner and                                               Transit Hub and at the base of Three
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom                                               and Four World Trade Center. Brookfield
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           are examples of anchor tenants that have                                           Properties is upgrading 200,000 sq ft of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           allowed various projects to enter the next                                         shopping and dining space at Brookfield
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           phase of development.                                                              Place. Saks Fifth Avenue will anchor
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Running concurrent to the office pipeline                                          Brookfield’s retail complex with a four
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           at Hudson Yards is the development of                                              floor, 85,000 sq ft department store. The
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           nearly 4.0 million sq ft of residential                                            Fulton Transit Center, with 65,000 sq ft
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           space alongside world class retail,                                                of retail space, will connect to the World

                                                                                 the city’s inventory and offer comparable
                                                                                                                                      COMMERCIAL DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE                                                                                      hospitality and amenities. Luxury retailer                                         Trade Center Site and Brookfield Place
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              via an underground passageway.
                                                                                 options similar to other global cities.              (‘000s SQ FT)                                                                                                        Neiman Marcus will establish its first
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           presence in New York City with a 250,000
                                   WRITTEN BY
                                   Jonathan Mazur,                               Additionally, the nature of the workplace   12,000                                                                     Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research        sq ft store at Related’s retail complex
                                   Managing Director, Research,                  is in the midst of a paradigm shift, with                                                                                                                                 sitting atop the main rail yards site.
                                   and David Chase, Research Analyst             the emphasis on increased density, open
                                   at Newmark Grubb Knight Frank                                                                                                                                                                                           Further Downtown, the World Trade

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        10,369
                                                                                 floor plans, collaborative space and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           complex is undergoing a massive
                                                                                 shared recreational facilities. The rapid
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           rebuilding effort. One World Trade

                                                                                                                                                                                    9,793
                                   With 26 million sq ft of new office space     growth of the TAMI sector has been the
                                   slated for completion, New York City is in
                                                                                                                             10,000                                                                                                                        Center delivered 3.0 million sq ft in
                                                                                 main driving force behind the work/play
                                   the midst of a construction renaissance                                                                                                                                                                                 November 2014. Condé Nast, the
                                                                                 office design, borne out of the workplace
                                   similar to that of the 1980s, when more                                                                                                                                                                                 building’s 1.2 million sq ft anchor tenant,
                                                                                 campuses of Silicon Valley and the
                                   than 50 million sq ft of space was built.                                                                                                                                                                               relocated from Times Square, an area the
                                                                                 retro-fitted loft spaces in Midtown South
                                   The lack of modern office product                                                                                                                                                                                       company helped revitalize two decades
                                                                                 that became the archetype for creative
                                   in Manhattan’s traditional business           workspace. Large TAMI tenants have          8,000                                                                                                                         ago. Four World Trade Center, the first
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           new tower completed on the site in 2013,
                                   corridors, coupled with growing demand

                                                                                                                                                    7,087
                                                                                 been among the most active players in the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           is approximately 60% leased, including
                                   from the expanding TAMI (Technology,          new developments on the Far West Side
                                   Advertising, Media, and Information)          and at the World Trade Center.
                                   sector, has driven the large-scale                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Expected               Potential

                                                                                                                                                                                                       5,682
                                   development projects underway on the                                                      6,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Delivery              Delivery 10.3

                                                                                                                                                                                                    5,437
                                                                                                                                                                            5,252
                                   Far West Side and at the World Trade
                                                                                 “THE NATURE OF THE                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         16.6 MSF                  MSF

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              4,900
                                   Center site.

                                                                                                                                                                    4,659

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        4,600
                                   Inactivity in Manhattan’s construction        WORKPLACE IS IN THE MIDST

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          4,173

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                4,100
                                   pipeline over the past 15 years has
                                                                                 OF A PARADIGM SHIFT”

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              3,732
                                                                                                                                                            3,612
                                   created substantial pent up demand for                                                    4,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                               3,371
                                                                                                                                            3,257

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                3,170
                                   modern offices. With an average age of

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  3,057
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2,983

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2,831
                                   70 years, most buildings in the traditional   With eight buildings comprising 16.4                                                                                                                       1980 to 2014

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2,430
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             totals 82.4

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2,387
                                   Midtown core submarkets cannot offer          million sq ft of new ultra prime office

                                                                                                                                                                                            2,217
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             msf of new

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2,141
                                   the space efficiency and customization        space in the construction pipeline,

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            1,860
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            construction

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          1,700
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  1,600
                                   that many tenants now expect when             the burgeoning development at the           2,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                             1,300
                                   making long-term lease commitments.           Hudson Yards rail site amounts to the

                                                                                                                                                                                                                       979

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            970
                                   Government rezoning initiatives are           ground up creation of an entire micro

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      850
                                   underway to incentivize landlords to          market on Manhattan’s Far West Side.
                                                                                                                                      259

                                   replace outdated office buildings with        The project gained momentum from

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  175
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      102

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      60
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     0

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     0

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          0

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  0

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      0
                                   modern skyscrapers that would enhance         the Metropolitan Transit Authority’s
                                                                                                                             0

                                                                                                                                      2000

                                                                                                                                      2006

                                                                                                                                      2008
                                                                                                                                      2009
                                                                                                                                      2003

                                                                                                                                      2005

                                                                                                                                      2020
                                                                                                                                      2002

                                                                                                                                      2004

                                                                                                                                      2007

                                                                                                                                      2016

                                                                                                                                      2018
                                                                                                                                      1980

                                                                                                                                      1990

                                                                                                                                      2019
                                                                                                                                      2015
                                                                                                                                      1986

                                                                                                                                      1988
                                                                                                                                      1989

                                                                                                                                      1996

                                                                                                                                      1998
                                                                                                                                      1999

                                                                                                                                      2001

                                                                                                                                      2010
                                                                                                                                      1983

                                                                                                                                      1993
                                                                                                                                      1985

                                                                                                                                      1995

                                                                                                                                      2013
                                                                                                                                      1982

                                                                                                                                      1992
                                                                                                                                      1984

                                                                                                                                      1994

                                                                                                                                      2012

                                                                                                                                      2014

                                                                                                                                      2017
                                                                                                                                      1997
                                                                                                                                      1987
                                                                                                                                      1981

                                                                                                                                      1991

                                                                                                                                      2011

                                                                                                                                      TBD
GLOBAL CITIES THE 2016 REPORT - THE FUTURE OF REAL ESTATE IN THE WORLD'S LEADING CITIES - Global Cities 2016 | Knight Frank
G AT E WAY CI T I E S

     1.3000° N, 103.8000° E

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         19
18

     SINGAPORE
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Helix Bridge and         preference for city centres shown by the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Marina Bay Sands
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               TMT sector across the world.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Hotel, Singapore
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Also, Singapore is working towards a well
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               diversified and sustainable economy that
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               builds upon its success in healthcare,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               education, logistics, aerospace,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               petrochemicals, and biotechnology. For
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               many firms in these industries, locating
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               in the CBD is not essential – indeed,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               globally, aerospace and biotechnology
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               firms are usually in suburban office
                                  New business locations will                                                                                                                                                                                                                  markets – which should generate office
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               demand in the Fringes. The government
                                  house future office demand
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               plans to establish various commercial
                                        WRITTEN BY                                                                                                                                                                                                                             clusters, business and industrial parks by
                                        Alice Tan,                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2030 provide further insight into where
                                        Director and Head,                                                                                                                                                                                                                     future property development will appear
                                        Consultancy & Research,                                                                                                                                                                                                                in Singapore.
                                        Knight Frank Singapore

                                  Singapore’s stellar transformation from      increased by 40% over the same period.       future sources of demand emerging that
                                  ‘third world to first’ in the span of five   This is not to say the traditional CBD       will create opportunities in both the CBD   BREAKDOWN AND PROPORTION OF SINGAPORE OFFICE SPACE
                                  decades is a success story many other        stagnated. In fact, it expanded on to land   and the Fringes.                            BY AREA / REGION, 2000 TO FIRST HALF 2015                                                                                                                           Source: REALIS, Knight Frank Research
                                  nations aspire to match, but few succeed.    reclaimed from the sea at Marina Bay,        While at present the financial sector
                                  The process of building the city state       where tower developments housed the          is seeing consolidation, leaving some                                       Downtown Core (LHS)                Orchard (LHS)          Rest of Central Area (LHS)          Fringe Area (LHS)          Outside Central Region (LHS)
                                  into a thriving metropolis was shaped        front offices of Singapore’s fast growing    occupiers with ‘shadow’ space, in the
                                  by the need to decentralise business         financial community.                         long run, finance should benefit from                                       % Proportion to total office stock- Outside Central Region (RHS)
                                  locations and house new, up-and-coming       This created a real estate landscape         Singapore’s growth as the key trading                                       % Proportion to total office stock- Fringe Area (RHS)
                                  industries. The Global Financial Crisis      that was highly suited to the financial      centre for South East Asia. To date,                                        % Proportion to total office stock- Central Area (RHS)
                                  (GFC) and the rise of new technology         and business services industries, with       asset management, insurance and
                                  office tenants is now resulting in changes   front office operations paying higher        currency trading are fast growing
                                  in occupier demand in the CBD and            rents to be in CBD buildings, while          industries, which are drawn to                                               90k                                                                                                                                                                 80%
                                  Fringe office markets, with future           back offices occupied more affordable        Singapore by the conducive business
                                  opportunities for both.                      space in Fringe districts like Tampines      environment. This should provide
                                                                                                                                                                                                         80k                                                                                                                                                                 70%
                                  Changes in legislation to give greater       and Changi. As office rents escalated in     demand in the long-term for both the
                                  powers to landlords in 1969 paved the        2007, government agencies were urged         CBD and Fringe markets, from front
                                  way for wholesale redevelopment of the       to consider relocating out of the CBD to     and back office operations respectively.                                     70k
                                  city centre during the 1970s and 1980s,      make space for the private sector.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            60%
                                                                                                                            Technology firms are in our view a strong
                                  which provided the offices to support        However, the post-2007 period has been       source of future demand for offices in
                                  Singapore’s rapid growth during those                                                                                                                                  60k
                                                                               a time when the relationship between the     Singapore. The Smart Nation iN2015

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    % Proportion to total office stock
                                  decades. However, to create business                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       50%
                                                                               CBD and the Fringes has changed. After

                                                                                                                                                                        Net office stock (‘000 sq ft)
     Office buildings                                                                                                       masterplan is a positive step towards
     in Raffles Place,            space to accommodate future waves of         the falls in rents during the GFC, the
     Singapore
                                                                                                                            promoting technology, and will benefit                                       50k
                                  expansion, a policy of ‘decentralisation’    CBD became more affordable, reducing         various sectors of the economy, including
                                  was adopted through the 1991 Concept                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       40%
                                                                               pressure on cost conscious tenants           commercial property. Moreover, as
                                  Plan. This aimed to use the Mass Rapid       to consider relocating to the Fringes.       the workforce becomes increasingly                                           40k
                                  Transit (MRT) rail system to establish       Consistent with the experience in New        dominated by tech-savvy Millennials,                                                                                                                                                                                                             30%
                                  business centres outside the crowded         York and London, the TMT (Technology,        companies need to change the way they                                        30k
                                  CBD area, creating new suburban and          Media and Telecoms) sector defied            work. This will mean a rethink in how
                                  peripheral office markets.                   decentralisation and made its foray into     firms lay out their offices, where they
       “TECHNOLOGY FIRMS ARE IN   Decentralisation resulted in an
                                  expanded commercial real estate
                                                                               the CBD.
                                                                               Office rents peaked in Q1 2015, amid
                                                                                                                            are located, and how much technology
                                                                                                                            is incorporated into the workplace (and
                                                                                                                                                                                                         20k
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             20%

      OUR VIEW A STRONG SOURCE    market. Within the past 15 years, total
                                  office space stock in Singapore grew
                                                                               slowing demand and consolidation of
                                                                               office space in the face of an economic
                                                                                                                            indeed in public areas, and the home).
                                                                                                                            This will buoy technology firms and in
                                                                                                                                                                                                         10k                                                                                                                                                                 10%

             OF FUTURE DEMAND”    by 24% to 81.6 million sq ft (see graph),
                                  although in the Fringe area, stock
                                                                               slowdown in the Asia Pacific region.
                                                                               However, over the long-term we see
                                                                                                                            turn generate office demand, probably
                                                                                                                            with more of a CBD bias, given the                                           0                                                                                                                                                                   0%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   H1 2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                2000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2006

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2008

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2003

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2005
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2002

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2004

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2007
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2001

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2010

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2012

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2011
GLOBAL CITIES THE 2016 REPORT - THE FUTURE OF REAL ESTATE IN THE WORLD'S LEADING CITIES - Global Cities 2016 | Knight Frank
G AT E WAY CI T I E S
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Shoreditch
      51.5072° N, 0.1275° W

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         26.3%

      LONDON
020

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  021
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Office rental growth
20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  21
                                                                                                                                             Noho             TRANSPORT HUBS                                           Euston              Q3 07 to Q2 15

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  17.4%
                                                                                                                                                              Crossrail 1 intersects with the Thameslink rail

                                                                                                                                       34.8%
                                                                                                                                       Office rental growth
                                                                                                                                         Q3 07 to Q2 15
                                                                                                                                                              upgrade at Farringdon, creating a new travel hub.
                                                                                                                                                              Crossrail 2 would meet Crossrail 1 at Tottenham
                                                                                                                                                              Court Road, then Thameslink at St Pancras,
                                                                                                                                                              producing two more interchange hot spots.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Office rental growth
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Q3 07 to Q2 15

                                                                                                                                                                                                                     City Core
      London is being transformed
      by a new wave of creative
      firms and rail links                                                                                                                                                                                        2.4%                                                                              Aldgate

      WRITTEN BY
                                                                                                                                                                                             Soho
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Office rental growth
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Q3 07 to Q2 15

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               15.1%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Office rental growth

                                                                                                                                                                                    12.5%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Q3 07 to Q2 15
      Patrick Scanlon,
      Partner, Central London Research,
      Knight Frank
                                                                                                                                                                                       Office rental growth
                                                                                                                                                                                         Q3 07 to Q2 15

      The third quarter of 2007 was the time        HEATHROW AIRPORT                                                                                                                                                                                             DEVELOPMENT
      that the Global Financial Crisis (GFC)        Heathrow is a major business centre                                                                                                                                                                          Since 2000, central London has seen
      reached London, as confidence in the          as well as a transport hub. There is more                                                                                                                                                                    more than 70 million sq ft of new offices
      banking sector slumped. However, eight        office stock in the surrounding area than                                                                                                                                                                    built. This is more than the total office
      years later, the office market is thriving.   there is in the CBD of Birmingham,                                                                                                                                                                           stock of Singapore. Yet London’s vacancy
      London’s economy is being driven by           the U.K.’s second largest city.                                                                                                                                                                              rate is falling and at a 14 year low.
      a new wave of technology and creative
      firms who are shaping the digital
                                                                                                                    Mayfair                                                                Holborn
      age. The last year has also seen more

                                                                                                               7.0%                                                                 14.8%
      traditional financial and professional
      occupiers initiating office searches,
      which demonstrates broadening demand.
                                                                                                                Office rental growth
      Comparing rents today with Q3 2007,                                                                         Q3 07 to Q2 15
                                                                                                                                                                                       Office rental growth
                                                                                                                                                                                         Q3 07 to Q2 15
      the strongest growth has occurred in
      the areas popular with the technology
      and creative industries. Noho is a
      former garments industry district that
      is now home to many leading creative
      firms. Prime rents are 35% higher today                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Southbank
      compared to Q3 2007. Shoreditch, another                                  CROSSRAIL 1

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           19.8%
      former industrial area, is a hub for start-                               London’s under construction east-west
      up technology firms. Office rents there                                   rail line opens in 2018. We expect a boost
      are 26% above their pre-GFC peak.                                         for office rents near Crossrail stations in
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Office rental growth
      Infrastructure projects abound in London.                                 the 2017 to 2019 period, i.e. just before                                                                                                                                         Q3 07 to Q2 15

      The development potential of the Nine                                     and after services commence.
      Elms corridor is being unlocked thanks
      to a planned new underground rail line                                                                     Paddington
      to the Battersea Power Station site. With
      the Crossrail 1 and Thameslink upgrade
      railway projects under construction, we
      are seeing the development of a transport
      hub running from Tottenham Court Road
                                                                                                              -7.7%
                                                                                                               Office rental growth
                                                                                                                 Q3 07 to Q2 15
                                                                                                                                                              BATTERSEA & NINE ELMS
                                                                                                                                                              Plans for a new U.S. Embassy, extensive
                                                                                                                                                              mixed-use schemes, a new underground
      to Farringdon to King’s Cross. This hub                                                                                                                 rail line, and redevelopment of the
      would be boosted further if the proposed                                                                                                                iconic Battersea Power Station site, will
      Crossrail 2 receives government approval.                                                                                                               transform this former industrial area.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Source: Knight Frank Research
G AT E WAY CI T I E S

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      CBD, CBD2 AND POTENTIAL LOCATION OF CBD3                                                      Source: Knight Frank Research
           22.2783° N, 114.1747° E
22

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    23
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Kowloon East

           NEW HORIZONS FOR
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             (CBD2)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Victoria
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Harbour

           HONG KONG
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      East Lantau
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Metropolis                         Central
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Victoria Harbour,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        (CBD3)                            CBD
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Hong Kong                                                                               Hong Kong
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Island

           A shortage of office space and high                                    Land shortage in Hong Kong is             where net effective rents rose above                    supporting policies, such as land                 Meanwhile, a new East Lantau                     NEW CBDs W ILL FURTHER
                                                                                  a widely known problem for the            U.S.$186 per sq ft per annum recently.                  rezoning, improvement of connectivity             Metropolis is proposed to become the             ENH A NCE CENTR A L
           rents in the city’s Central Business                                   densely populated city. Limited           Manufacturing firms shifting                            and enhanced urban design, have also              third core business area over the next
           District are leading to decentralisation                               office availability in the CBD,           operations to mainland China have                       accelerated the redevelopment process             50 years. In the latest policy address,         In the coming years, emerging CBDs
                                                                                                                                                                                    in the area. As an emerging business              the government announced its plan               will continue to witness rapid growth
                                                                                  also known as Central, means it is        left Kowloon East with many vacant
                               WRITTEN BY                                                                                                                                           district with abundant supply, Kowloon            to reclaim a 1,000 hectare manmade              and help alleviate the office shortage
                                                                                  becoming increasingly difficult to        industrial buildings. In order to
                               Pamela Tsui,                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           problem in the Central CBD. Given the
                                                                                  fulfil multinational companies’ rising    alleviate Hong Kong’s office supply                     East’s office rents are still as low as           island in waters between Hong Kong
                               Senior Manager, Research & Consultancy,                                                                                                                                                                                                                considerable rental gap between various
                               Greater China, Knight Frank                        demand for business space. With the       shortage, the government announced                      U.S.$46.50 per sq ft per annum.                   Island and Lantau Island.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      business districts, this decentralisation
                                                                                  highest prime office rents across the     an initiative to develop Kowloon East
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       THE NEW CBDs CA NNOT                           trend is expected to continue.
                                                                                  globe, Hong Kong also creates a major     into CBD2 in 2012. Many former
                                                                                  challenge for firms who wish to set up    factories have been redeveloped as                      “KOWLOON EAST HAS NOW                              R EPL ACE CENT R A L                           History has proven that once the rental
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      gap between core and decentralised
                                                                                  offices there – especially in Central,    high quality office buildings. Other
                                                                                                                                                                                    BECOME THE SECOND                                 Despite the concentration of quality
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      stock and attractive rents, we believe          business areas has narrowed, the

           OFFICE RENTS IN CENTRAL AND KOWLOON EAST                                                                                                 Source: Knight Frank Research
                                                                                                                                                                                    LARGEST BUSINESS AREA                             CBD2 cannot replace Central in the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      short-term because only some firms
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      decentralisation process slows down
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      as companies have less incentive to

     180
                                                                                                                                                                                    AFTER CENTRAL”                                    or operations (e.g. back offices) prefer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      relocating to Kowloon East. Some
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      relocate their offices, especially when
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      increasing relocation costs are taken into
                             Central          Kowloon East                                                                                                                                                                                                                            consideration. Therefore, Central’s role as
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      industries will opt to stay in Central due
     160                                                                                                                                                                            Thanks to the ample supply of new                                                                 the prime office district and commercial
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      to company image, transport accessibility
                                                                                                                                                                                    offices, and the significant rent                                                                 hub in Hong Kong is unlikely to be
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      and proximity to related business clusters
     140                                                                                                                                                                            discount compared to Central, many                                                                replaced in the short to medium-term.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      – law, accounting and financial firms
                                                                                                                                                                                    companies that are anxious to control             usually locate together. CBD2 will not          In the long-term, although
     120                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              decentralisation will remain one of
                                                                                                                                                                                    costs have relocated to Kowloon East in           replace Central as it still needs further
                                                                                                                                                                                    recent years.                                     development in area image, connectivity         the most important trends changing
           HK$/sq ft/month

     100
                                                                                                                                                                                    Kowloon East has now become the                   and business clusters, which cannot be          the landscape of the Hong Kong office
     80                                                                                                                                                                             second largest business area after                achieved in a short period of time. As          market, we believe emerging CBDs
                                                                                                                                                                                    Central in terms of Grade A office stock.         for CBD3, it will take several years to         will serve as complements, rather than
     60                                                                                                                                                                             With many upcoming development                    complete, and the developments are              direct competitors, to Central.
                                                                                                                                                                                    projects in Kowloon East, the total               expected to be mainly residential and
     40
                                                                                                                                                                                    amount of Grade A office space in the             retail. As a result, there is little prospect
     20                                                                                                                                                                             area is expected to overtake Central              of it ever replacing Central as Hong
                                                                                                                                                                                    within the coming decade.                         Kong’s prime commercial location.
                                                                    2006

                                                                                  2008

                                                                                             2009
           2003

                                                             2005
                                       2004

                                                                           2007

      0
                                                                                                         2010

                                                                                                                                          2013

                                                                                                                                                                             2015
                                                                                                                               2012

                                                                                                                                                       2014
                                                                                                                     2011
G AT E WAY CI T I E S

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Le Cargo, Paris,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       France

     48.8567° N, 2.3508° E
24

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        25
     PARIS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Commuting through the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   business district, Paris, France

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      377,000 sq ft of shared space will be made
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      available to start-ups in this entirely private
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      investment, headed by a leading French
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      business tycoon.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Expectations are high in this area of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      strong demand. France and its capital
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      city stand out at at a European level in
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      terms of the number and vitality of tech
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      start-ups. At the Consumer Electronics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Show (CES) 2015 in Las Vegas, the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      largest tech event in the world, France,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      with 120 exhibitors, had the greatest
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      presence among European countries
          WRITTEN BY                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  - far ahead of Germany (39) and the
          Cyril Robert,                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               United Kingdom (33). In Eureka Park,
          Head of Research,
          Knight Frank France                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         the section dedicated to emerging start-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      ups, one in four businesses were French.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Naturally, some of these companies come
     The Cargo has landed in the                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      from outside Paris, but the Paris tech
     19th arrondissement of Paris                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     scene is particularly vibrant and always
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      on the lookout for growth opportunities.
                   With more than 160,000 sq ft across six                                                                                                                                                                                                                                plays a vital role in this new world,                       Paris has launched the first Paris French
                   floors, The Cargo is the largest start-        PARIS OFFICE VACANCY RATES                                                                                                                                                                                              drawing on its own mechanisms, players,                     Tech Ticket competition targeted at
                   up incubator yet in the French capital.        Source: Knight Frank Research
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          organisation and working methods.                           foreign businesses wishing to join the
                   Moored alongside the impressive 2,000 ft                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Businesses aim to attract high flying young                 Paris tech scene.
                                                                       CBD                Paris Region                                                                                                                                                                                    professionals by offering a workplace
                   long Macdonald warehouse, The Cargo fits                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Innovative businesses are flocking to
                   in perfectly with other ship-like structures                                                                                                                           8.1%                                                                                            that is fun, fluid and part of the work-                    areas which were previously economically

                                                                                                                                                                                                              8.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        8.0%
                   in the area. The Macdonald industrial                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  life balance. The aim is to blur the lines                  disadvantaged and working class, where
                                                                  8%                                                                                                                                7.7%
                   building from the 1960s is currently                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   between work and leisure, which leads to                    there was little interest in the commercial
                                                                                                          7.3%

                   undergoing a major transformation,                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     less clock watching and reduced hierarchy.                  property market until now: from the north
                                                                                                                    7.1%

                                                                                                                                        7.1%

                                                                                                                                                                                7.1%
                                                                                                                              7.0%

                                                                                                                                                            7.0%
                                                                                                                                                                      7.0%
                                                                                                                                                  6.9%

                   harbouring a secondary school, over            7%                                                                                                                                                                                                                      The Cargo is designed with the challenge                    to the south of Paris, from the 13th to the
                   1,000 housing units, 355,000 sq ft of                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  posed by the sociologist Bruno Marzloff                     19th arrondissement, and along the ring
                   retail, as well as 290,000 sq ft of office                                                                                                                                                                                                                             in mind: we need to rethink the work                        road that defines the city limits. These
                                                                                                6.0%

                   space. The office element has recently         6%                                                                                                                                                                                                                      that makes a city. As a result of this                      areas form an arch of innovation which
                   become home to hundreds of employees                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   changed approach to work and urban                          is being actively promoted by the local
                   of a leading financial institution. This                                                                                                                                                                                                                               living, offices, public and private spaces,                 authorities. It boasts competitively priced
                                                                                      4.9%

                   port is the gateway to the future, the         5%                                                                                                                                                                                                                      neighbourhoods and even the city will                       property, development opportunities and
                   Paris of tomorrow: mixed-use, hi-tech,                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 undergo a profound transformation
                                                                             4.3%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      an increasingly young and trendy feel. A
                   environmentally friendly, plugged in,                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  towards greater openness, equality, and                     number of new developments are coming
                   multi-sector and socially inclusive –          4%                                                                                                                                                                                                                      a stronger community spirit: longer                         to these areas, with a call for proposals
                   a smart city.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          opening hours and more services, new                        from teams backed by investors, with
                   The Cargo clearly has flagship status,                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 ways of using them and emerging roles.                      local authorities entrusting the projects
                                                                  3%
                   with its high specification, and portholes                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         to the most innovative bidder. Even the

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      “YES, THE REVOLUTION
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Business district                                       This major change is no work of science
                   for maritime effect. It is part of the new                                                                                                                                                                     in Paris, France                                        fiction. The Cargo is not an isolated step in               tower block is no longer a dirty word. In
                   urban model, which acknowledges that                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   this process: the various co-working spaces                 June, the Paris City Council approved
                                                                  2%
                   businesses are made up of individuals                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  are another example of this new movement                    the Triangle tower project led by Unibail
                   whose wider needs have to be catered
                   for. This includes homes, shops and
                   leisure facilities, that are all close to
                                                                  1%                                                                                                                                                                                               IS HERE!”              for a radical step away from traditional
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          office buildings – a phenomenon that is
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          still in its infancy. However, The Cargo
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Rodamco. This 590 ft skyscraper, located at
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Porte de Versailles (15th arrondissement)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      and designed by the architects, Herzog
                   work. Via a workplace that is integrated                                                                                                                                                                                                                               will not remain Paris’s largest incubator                   and de Meuron, will be the first mixed-use
                   into an individual’s daily life, companies     0%                                                                                                                                                                                                                      for long. With the Halle Freyssinet due to                  new generation skyscraper to grace the
                   forge links with their employees, and a                                                                                                                                                                                                                                open its doors in the 13th arrondissement                   Parisian skyline.
                                                                                      H2 2008

                                                                                                          H2 2009
                                                                            H1 2008

                                                                                                H1 2009

                                                                                                                              H2 2010

                                                                                                                                                                                          H2 2013
                                                                                                                                                                      H2 2012

                                                                                                                                                                                                              H2 2014
                                                                                                                    H1 2010

                                                                                                                                                                                H1 2013

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        H1 2015
                                                                                                                                                  H2 2011
                                                                                                                                                            H1 2012

                                                                                                                                                                                                    H1 2014
                                                                                                                                        H1 2011

                   community is born. The new economy                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     of Paris in just over a year, more than                     Yes, the revolution is here!
GL OBA L O CC U PI E R S
26

                                                                                                                      27
                         In the future, the office will principally be a place
                         that generates staff satisfaction and interaction
                               WRITTEN BY
                               James Roberts,
                               Chief Economist, Knight Frank

                         How businesses view their offices has          figure, with the average newly qualified
                         changed enormously in the past two             commercial lawyer earning U.S.$91,000,
                         decades. Previously the emphasis was           according to recruitment firm Michael
                         on cost control. Firms looked for ways         Page, suggesting a replacement cost of
                         to pack more desks on to floors, and           nearly U.S.$143,000.
                         there was a trend towards relocating           Given that the cost to the business
                         jobs from expensive Central Business           of replacing the worker vastly
                         Districts (CBDs) to lower cost out-of-         overshadows property costs, more firms
                         town office markets. However, today            are questioning the logic of achieving a
                         firms are more conscious of the role           small saving by moving to a peripheral
                         the workplace plays in controlling a           business location if it increases staff
                         far bigger business cost - namely staff        turnover. There are even examples of
                         retention. This is reversing the out-          firms choosing to move out-of-town jobs
                         of-town trend, and transforming the            into more expensive CBD areas in order
                         perception of the office from a business       to appeal to a broader talent pool.
                         expense into a place that firms use to
                         inspire and energise their staff.

                          LOSING STA FF                                 “THERE ARE EVEN
                          IS EX PENSI V E
                                                                        EXAMPLES OF FIRMS
                         A study by Oxford Economics found
                         that the cost of replacing a member of         CHOOSING TO MOVE
                         staff averages U.S.$50,000, with over
                         80% of the cost in lost output while           OUT-OF-TOWN JOBS
                                                                        INTO MORE EXPENSIVE

     FUTURE BREAKING
                         the new employee gets up to speed. If
                         the new worker is in a leadership or
                         rainmaking role, this loss of output
                         could have a trickledown effect on other       CBD AREAS IN ORDER TO
                         staff who are reliant upon that person
                         for work generation or guidance.
                                                                        APPEAL TO A BROADER
                         On top of the replacement cost, there is
                         also the loss of value that goes out the
                                                                        TALENT POOL”
                         door with the departing employee, such
                                                                         AC TI V IT Y-BA SED WOR K I NG

     OFFICES THE MOULD
                         as training, knowledge, reputation, and
                         client relationships. Some studies estimate    Indeed, transforming the office into an
                         the total cost of losing an employee can be    inspiring and enjoyable place to work
                         equivalent of 150% of salary.                  is now seen as a cost effective means of
                         For a typical office worker in London,         retaining staff. In Europe and North
                         the total cost of their workstation in rent,   America, technology and media firms
                         local taxes and service charge, is around      were the first to break the mould, and
                         U.S.$16,000 per annum. The median              bring free buffets, exercise areas, spiral
                         salary in London is U.S.$54,000, so based      staircases, games rooms, and sofas into the
                         on the 150% figure, their replacement cost     office, and now more traditional industries
                         is U.S.$81,000 or five times the cost of a     are following suit.
                         workstation. Most professional workers
                         earn far more than the U.S.$54,000             CONTINUED ON                         28-29
GL OBA L O CC U PI E R S

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              29
28

     CONTINUED FROM                                                    26-27            FCB,
                                                                                Chicago, U.S.
     In Australia, the financial sector has led                                                                                                                                                worker for those actually in the office,
     this movement away from the desk, known                                                                                                                                                   but based on the assumption that
     as activity-based working (or ABW), which                                                                                                                                                 a percentage of staff will be out of
     beckons the question: will all industries                                                                                                                                                 the office at any given time.
     eventually go down this route?
                                                                                                                                                                                                D O Y O U R E A L LY
     Levels of adoption of ABW vary from
                                                                                                                                                                                                NEED A DESK?
     one city to the next. In some European
     cities, where the office stock contains a                                                                                                                                                 Cutting the bond to a personal desk is
     lot of historic buildings, internal walls                                                                                                                                                 allowing firms who fully embrace ABW to
     sometimes can hinder adopting ABW.                                                                                                                                                        take a lower multiple of space compared
     Another issue is when lease expiries fall,                                                                                                                                                to total staff. This does not mean that
     as it is during a relocation that a company                                                                                                                                               firms will need less office space in the
     has to acquire a new fit-out, making it the                                                                                                                            Atlas Holdings,
                                                                                                                                                                                               future, as the total workforce continues to
     time for a radical change. Consequently,                                                                                                                               Greenwich,         expand over the long-term in most Global
     the shift to ABW will be gradual – not                                                                                                                                 Conneticut, U.S.   Cities. Irrespective of whether they
     earthquake – in any market.                                                                                                                                                               allocate 90 or 100 sq ft for each additional
                                                                                                                                                                                               worker, a firm still needs to acquire more
       ON T O PH A SE T WO                                                                                                                                                                     space as it grows. However, the multiple
     The first wave of ABW was about                                                                                                                                                           of space per worker is probably going to
     breaking down barriers in the office,                                                                                                                                                     fall, as companies will utilise absence to
     and creating a communal atmosphere.                                                                                                                                                       offer a spacious office to those who are
     However, we are now seeing a second                                                                                                                                                       actually at work.
     phase that builds on the experiences of                                                                                                                                                   The net result is that companies are
     phase one. By removing the partitions                                                                                                                                                     achieving highly efficient offices, but
     and increasing the level of interaction,                                                                                                                                                  staying in the more expensive CBD
     noise is becoming an issue for those                                                                                                                                                      areas. This allows staff to enjoy all the
     who need some quiet time to write a
     report. Some firms have found that by                                     “TRANSFORMING THE OFFICE                                                                                        amenities available in city centres, and
                                                                                                                                                                                               indeed that amenity offering supports

                                                                               INTO AN INSPIRING AND
     removing cellular offices they lost a raft                                                                                                                                                the companies’ own activities. In any
     of unofficial meeting rooms, placing                                                                                                                                                      Global City, the cafés and restaurants
     extra strain on the actual meeting                                                                                                                                                        are actually the unofficial meeting
     rooms. So, interestingly, the next wave
     of ABW is now putting some barriers                                       ENJOYABLE PLACE TO WORK IS                                                                                      rooms of the business community, while
                                                                                                                                                                                               their sports and cultural venues are

                                                                               NOW SEEN AS A COST-EFFECTIVE
     back in, introducing quiet areas and                                                                                                                                                      used by firms in their marketing mix. A
     private booths.                                                                                                                                                                           company distances itself from all these
     We are also now seeing more firms                                                                                                                                                         ‘beyond-the-office’ benefits of the big
     who are going down the ABW route
     aiming to provide more space per                                          MEANS OF RETAINING STAFF”                              Draft Inc,
                                                                                                                                   Tokyo, Japan
                                                                                                                                                                                               city when it moves to a business park.

                                                                                                                                                                                               CONTINUED ON                              30

     EGO SPACE FOR THE BOSS?

     A Hong Kong executive in an advertising firm gets four

                                                                                                            4:1            1.9:1                              1.9:1           1.5:1                                       1:1
     times more office space than his secretary, but in
     Sydney the boss and PA get about the same. Here is the
     ‘boss to support staff’ office space ratio from ad firms
     around the world

            Executive             Support staff

     Source: Knight Frank Research / Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research                        HONG KONG         LONDON                           SHANGHAI           NEW YORK                        SY D N EY
GL OBA L O CC U PI E R S
30

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           31
     CONTINUED FROM

                                                                                                                                                                           CROWD
                                           28-29

      CH A LLENGING
      PA S T C O N V E N T I O N S
                                                   OFFICE SPACE ALLOCATION
     Around the world we see huge
                                                   IN CORPORATE HQs IN VARIOUS GLOBAL CITIES (IN SQ FT)
     disparities in how offices are occupied.

                                                                                                                                                                           WORKING
     These typically reflect cultural                                                                                       225                      150             100
     differences, and the extent of those
                                                   SAN
     variations was not widely known
                                                   FRANCISCO
     when globalisation was in its earlier                                                           Executive                        Professional         Support
     stages. Twenty years ago, a senior
     partner in a Chicago law firm with no
     overseas offices was probably unaware
     that lawyers in London occupied                                                                                        250                      150             100
     far less office space per worker.                                                                                                                                     The rise and rise of collaborative offices
     As businesses merge and expand                NEW YORK
                                                   CITY                                                                                                                          WRITTEN BY
     into global networks, and staff are                                                             Executive                        Professional         Support               James Roberts,
     transferred overseas, awareness of the
                                                                                                                                                                                 Chief Economist, Knight Frank                                                Level39 offices,
     differences grow.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                London
     Previous conventions on office
     occupation are being called into
                                                                                                                                180                  120             100   New technology has been bringing
     question. Knight Frank figures show                                                                                                                                   previously unconnected people together to
     that a professional worker in a Hong          LONDON                                                                                                                  achieve things. We have crowd sourcing to
     Kong corporation is typically occupying                                                         Executive                        Professional         Support         develop ideas, and crowd funding to raise
     200 sq ft in a cellular office, but his                                                                                                                               money. Now a new type of office is bringing
     Shanghai equivalent occupies 160 sq                                                                                                                                   people together, often in the service of
     ft in a cubicle. Meanwhile his Sydney                                                                                                                                 advancing the tech economy.
     equivalent occupies 120 ft in open                                                                                     250                      200             100   Collaborative offices are the real estate
     plan. How long before firms with                                                                                                                                      equivalent of crowd sourcing, but
                                                   HONG
     global networks start asking why there        KONG                                                                                                                    in the form of a rather cool serviced
     should be so much difference in office                                                          Executive                        Professional         Support         office. An office space is fitted out with
     occupation by people doing much the                                                                                                                                   a combination of meeting rooms, hot
     same job?                                                                                                                                                             desks, and lots activity-based working
     In the Global Cities, firms are thinking                                                                                                                              (ABW) space, with sofas and communal
                                                                                                                            220                      160             120   tables. Entrepreneurs then take out
     long-term and planning for headcount
     growth again, and they want their offices                                                                                                                             memberships allowing different levels
     to help keep staff happy and reduce           SHANGHAI                                                                                                                of access, where they will mingle with
     headcount attrition (which costs firms far                                                      Executive                        Professional         Support         other people running their own firms.
     more than rents do). They want to reduce                                                                                                                              The fit-out is often unashamedly targeted
     the per-person ratio of occupation, but                                                                                                                               towards Millennials, and the tech and          WeWork offices,   the wider idea pool of their co-workers, in   insurance locations. In New York City,
     packing people in with ever-smaller                                                                                                                                   creative industries.                           London
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            the same way staff in larger companies        WeWork has 2 million sq ft of office space.
                                                                                                                            222                      111             89
     desks does not make for a conducive                                                                                                                                   Some entrepreneurs pay by the hour to                            can when in the office.                       WeWork is also branching out from flexible
     working environment, and relocations                                                                                                                                  use a café area with wifi, while others pay                      While collaborative offices first emerged     working to flexible living. It has established
     out-of-town can be unpopular. ABW             MADRID                                                                                                                  monthly fees for all day access and wider                        in San Francisco, driven by technology        a new short-stay apartment format, known
     offers a solution, providing more space                                                         Executive                        Professional         Support         ranging services.                                                entrepreneur demand, the past few years       as WeLive, in two buildings where its
     for people to work in by utilising the fact                                                                                                                           The concept is proof that offices are a                          have seen the format go global. Having        collaborative offices are found – one in
     that a proportion of staff are not in the                                                                                                                             necessity for any business, and the benefits                     begun operations in New York in 2010,         Washington DC, the other in Downtown
     office at any given time.                                                                                                  120                  120             120   they offer stretch beyond providing                              WeWork has since opened in 11 other           Manhattan. A WeWork pre-let in the
     The extent to which ABW is embraced                                                                                                                                   somewhere to log on to a computer.                               U.S. cities, as well as in the U.K., the      Brooklyn Navy Yard will also include
     will always vary from one company to                                                                                                                                  Entrepreneurs check into collaborative                           Netherlands and Israel. A year ago, they      WeLive apartments.
                                                   SYDNEY
     the next, but its influence is spreading                                                        Executive                        Professional         Support         offices as they want the intellectual                            had no presence in London, but WeWork         To add to crowd sourcing, and crowd
     across industries and throughout the                                                                                                                                  synergies that arise as people converse                          now has over 320,000 sq ft of office space    funding, we can now add crowd living.
     globe. Thus the future office will be                                                                                                                                 and trade ideas in a working environment.                        there; some of it in technology and media
                                                   Source: Knight Frank Research / Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research
     dominated less by the desk, and more          Note: Corporate HQ is defined as the head office of an industrial, energy,
                                                                                                                                                                           By banding together in communal office                           districts like Soho and Whitechapel, but
     by the comfortable sofa.                      or manufacturing conglomerate.                                                                                          space, entrepreneurs are thus able to access                     also in more traditional financial and
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