Uranium Report 2020 Everything you need to know about uranium! - Skyharbour Resources
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Commodity-TV Preface The whole world of commodities in one App! Dear Readers, With this new edition of the Uranium Report ded to buy domestic uranium for US$150 mil- 2020 we are already entering the fourth year lion per year! This could be the ignition point of this special report series. Uranium is a „hot for rising uranium prices in the future. Supply potato“ and we see major imbalances in sup- is still falling, and demand is rising slightly. ply and demand coming to the markets. We expected this to happen in 2019 and have Of course, we also present some interesting been proven wrong, as there is probably still companies in the industry with facts and figu- enough to buy on the spot market. However, res. This is to be understood as a suggestion without uranium power generation, i.e. nucle- and not as a buy recommendation since there ar power plants, we will not only have a huge are only very few listed companies left. global problem in stable basic energy supply, but also a real power supply problem in itself Raw materials are the basis of our entire eco- Jochen Staiger is founder and CEO due to the electromobility revolution. The de- nomic coexistence. Without raw materials of Swiss Resource Capital AG, velopment of the charging infrastructure is there are no products, no technical innova- located in Herisau, Switzerland. As progressing much more rapidly in Europe and tions and no real economic life. We need a chief-editor and founder of the first electricity consumption continues to rise. reliable and constant basic energy supply for two resource IP-TV-channels Even I now drive a hybrid and diligently char- our highly industrialised world. Commodity-TV and its German ge electricity car for short trips in the city. The counterpart Rohstoff-TV, he reports question is rather where does all the electrici- Swiss Resource Capital AG has set itself the about companies, experts, fund ty come from, and that without pollutant task of providing interested people with com- managers and various themes emissions? Nuclear power is the only viable prehensive information about metals, raw ma- around the international mining solution here for many years to come, as the terials and various listed mining companies. business and the correspondent sun and wind cannot be relied upon and they On our website www.resource-capital.ch you metals. can only be suppliers. Especially in Germany will find 20 companies from various commo- this question is even more important, as nuc- dity sectors as well as a lot of information and Download lear power is being switched off and coal is articles on the subject of commodities. being made to disappear. Here it is once our unique App again worthwhile to look at China because With our special reports we want to give you for free! here they are also switching to solar, hydro- insights and provide you with comprehensive electric, wind and above all nuclear power. information. In addition you have the opportuni- China has understood that one suffocates at ty to inform yourself through our two raw mate- the own smog but also needs a reliable and rial IPTV channels www.Commodity-TV.net & cheap power supply. Nuclear power is the www.Rohstoff-TV.net free of charge. For your perfect solution. mobile everyday life, you can download our newly developed Commodity-TV App for Closely related to Battery Metals (main com- iPhone and Android on your smartphone. ponents of lithium-ion batteries, the heart of Here you get real-time charts, stock prices, Tim Rödel is Manager Newsletter, every electric vehicle) is the base-load capab- indices and the latest videos automatically on Threads & Special Reports at SRC le power supply (charging) of the batteries, your mobile phone no matter where you are. AG. He has been active in the Watch Management & Expert Interviews, Site-Visit-Videos, News Shows and thus either the burning of coal, gas or oil My team and I hope you enjoy reading the commodities sector for more than and receive top and up to date Mining Information on your mobile device or the use of uranium as a fuel element in Special Report Uranium and we hope to pro- twelve years and accompanied nuclear power plants. There are no other ba- vide you with a lot of new information, im- several chief-editor positions, e.g. at worldwide! se-load-capable energy production methods pressions and ideas. Only those who inform Rohstoff-Spiegel, Rohstoff-Woche, as long as no adequate storage possibilities themselves in a versatile way will be able to Rohstoffraketen, the publications for electricity from renewable energy sources win and preserve their wealth in these difficult Wahrer Wohlstand and First Mover. Amazing features: have been created. This report is intended to times. He owns an enormous commodity • Company Facts give the reader an overview of the uranium expertise and a wide-spread industry and the real facts, as well as of the Yours, Jochen Staiger network within the whole resource • Global Mining News world‘s energy supply from nuclear power. sector. • Push Notofications The petition 232 in the USA last year and the Nuclear Working Group has come to a decisi- • Commodity-TV, Rohstoff-TV and Dukascopy-TV on. The Trump Administration has now deci- • Live Charts 9 Swiss Resource Capital AG | Poststrasse 1 | 9100 Herisau | Schweiz | www.resource-capital.ch
„Thanks to“ Corona: The uranium sector is really picking up speed again! – Spot price at four-year high! The Corona crisis continues to have a firm grip on the globe. The massive interventions (such as France, Great Britain and China), urgently need a supply of fuel. Whatever the What is uranium? uranium contents of 0.3 to 20 %. The highest grades are over 60% U3O8! in the development of the free economy have cost, one might almost think so, at least if One of only two elements where According to the International Atomic Energy left deep scars. Mass unemployment and one takes a look at the uranium spot price. It nuclear fission chain reactions Agency (IAEA), the largest uranium ore reser- economic hardship have suddenly become has gone up from US$ 24 to US$ 33.30 per are possible ves are in the USA, Niger, Australia, Kazakh- part of everyday life again. But every crisis pound in just 5 weeks. A plus of almost 40% stan, Namibia, South Africa, Canada, Brazil, also has its winners. In the case of Corona, and a four-year high at the same time! Let us come to the element uranium itself. Russia, Ukraine and Uzbekistan. one big winner is already emerging: the ura- Uranium is named after the planet Uranus nium sector! While many large mines have and is a chemical element with the element had to temporarily shut down or even com- Nuclear energy is currently the symbol U and atomic number 92. Uranium is pletely shut down due to possible infections only base-load capable energy a metal whose all isotopes are radioactive. Uranium mining of the personnel, at the same time the syste- source that can manage the Uranium, which occurs naturally in minerals, mically important nuclear power plants must balancing act between an consists of about 99.3% of the isotope 238U Uranium mining is basically divided into two continue to operate in order not to allow the enormously increasing electricity and 0.7% of 235U. processes: Conventional extraction and ext- social system to fall apart completely. The demand and clean energy raction by means of in-situ leaching or in-situ Uranium price development USA in particular, but also other nations whe- generation! recovery (ISR). The exact extraction method re nuclear energy plays an important role Uranium is irreplaceable for this! [RN] 5f36d17s 2 92 depends on the properties of the ore body, U over the last 5 years (Source: own representation) such as depth, shape, ore content, tectonics, Global energy demand has multiplied since type of host rock and other factors. the end of the 1980s. About 11% of the total energy demand worldwide is currently co- vered by nuclear power. However, it is still Melting Point 1406 K Conventional production mainly fossil fuels such as coal and crude oil Boiling Point 4203 K that are burned to generate energy. The in- URANIUM Most of the uranium is extracted by underg- creasing demand for a reduction of CO² round mining. The deposits are accessed via emissions and the ever more noticeable shafts, galleries, ramps or spirals. Problems phenomenon of „global warming“ are cau- are often caused by the ingress of mine water sing above all energy-guzzling industrial na- The uranium isotope 235U is fissionable by and so-called ventilation (technical measures tions and emerging markets to increase their thermal neutrons and is therefore, apart from to supply mines with fresh air). The exact mi- energy efficiency and improve their CO² the extremely rare plutonium isotope 239Pu, ning method is chosen according to the cha- budgets. The second important point is the the only known naturally occurring nuclide racteristics of the deposit. Above all, the sha- ongoing electrical revolution, which in a few with which nuclear fission chain reactions are pe of the ore bodies and the distribution of years‘ time will not only make us almost possible. For this reason, it is used as a pri- the uranium in them are decisive. In underg- 100% electrically mobile but will also bring mary energy source in nuclear power plants round mining, an ore body can be mined in a with it a huge additional surge in demand for and nuclear weapons. targeted manner, resulting in much less over- Base load capability, what is that? clean energy. burden than in open-pit mining. Base load capability is the ability of a power plant to provide continuous, Burning coal and oil cannot achieve both at Occurrence Near-surface or very large ore bodies are reliable electrical energy. This includes nuclear power plants, coal-fired the same time. The alternative is renewable preferably extracted by open pit mining. This power plants, gas-fired power plants, oil-fired power plants and steam energies, which however require an enor- Uranium does not occur in nature in solid enables the use of cost-effective large-scale power plants fired with substitute fuels. Combined heat and power mous amount of time and money and are not form, but always in minerals containing oxy- technology. Modern open-pit mines can be plants, biomass and biogas power plants can also be base load capab- even close to being able to supply base load gen. There is a total of about 230 uranium mi- from a few metres to over 1,000 metres deep le under certain conditions, although fossil or renewable raw materials without the lack of larger electricity storage nerals which can be of local economic im- and can reach a diameter of several kilomet- must also be burned. The only base-load-capable electricity generation facilities, or nuclear power, which can provi- portance. res. Open-pit mining often produces large from renewable energy sources is by means of hydroelectric power de a great deal of energy in a CO²-neutral There is a wide range of uranium deposits quantities of overburden. As in civil enginee- plants, although this often requires a major intervention in nature. way. Some countries have long since recog- from magmatic hydrothermal to sedimentary ring, large quantities of water may have to be Photovoltaic and wind power plants are not suitable for base load due nized this possibility of fast and almost clean types. excavated for an open-pit mine, but ventilati- to their often strongly fluctuating generation and thus feed-in. energy generation and are now pushing the The highest uranium contents are found in on is less of a problem. construction of new nuclear power plants. unconformity-related deposits with average 10 11
ISR Mining The current status of therefore enormous and is proceeding at bre- athtaking speed! Nevertheless, more than In the ISR method, water and small amounts the uranium market two thirds of China‘s energy consumption is of CO2 and oxygen are injected into the still generated by coal-fired power plants. sandstone layers with the help of so-called And although China itself is mining its own injection wells, the uranium is dissolved out But what about the uranium market today? It coal deposits on a large scale, it is one of the and pumped back to the surface for further is clear that the lack of investment in the pro- world‘s largest coal importers alongside In- processing with the help of so-called reco- curement structure - i.e. in the infrastructure dia. 30% of the coal mined worldwide is im- very wells. The whole process is therefore of mines and processing plants - over the ported into these two countries alone. A cer- completely underground. The advantages of last 45 years will most likely prove to be a tain dependence on these same coal imports this process are therefore obvious: no major stroke of luck for uranium investors in the fu- is obvious. And this is exactly something that earth movements as in open-pit operation, ture! the leadership of the People‘s Republic is no overburden dumps or run-off basins for For despite the fact that, at the latest since trying to avoid. The obligation to establish heavy metals and cyanides have to be carri- the Chernobyl disaster and even more so af- climate-friendly and clean energy generation ed out. Only the wells are visible on the sur- ter the events surrounding the nuclear facili- options is almost a secondary consideration. face, the areas around the wells can continue ties in Fukushima, Japan, the number of nuc- The state-owned power plant manufacturer to be farmed without restrictions. The ISR lear power plants worldwide is already at a Power Construction Corporation of China process makes even low-grade deposits record level. Just 30 countries currently (as of (Beijing) predicted in autumn 2015 that its economically mineable, the capital costs for 1 April 2020) operate 442 reactors with a to- country would rise among the world‘s largest India massively expands civil Overview of reactors currently under mine development are greatly reduced. In tal net electrical capacity of around 390.7 gi- users of nuclear power after the Chinese go- nuclear program construction per country addition, the whole process can be carried gawatts. vernment planned to build more than 80 new (Source: www.iaea.org/PRIS) out with a minimum of manpower, which also nuclear reactors in the next 15 years and India is following a similar path. The world‘s drastically reduces operating costs. Accor- The current leading nuclear power nation more than 230 new nuclear reactors by 2050. second most populous country plans to ex- ding to a study by the World Nuclear Associ- with 96 reactors in operation is the USA. Ho- According to information from China Power, pand its nuclear energy capacity by 70 giga- Overview of reactors currently in ation, 25% of the uranium mined outside Ka- wever, emerging markets such as China and the new five-year plan for the energy indust- watts. In contrast, India‘s current total net operation per country zakhstan recently came from ISR mines. India in particular are requiring more and ry, which is scheduled for adoption by the electrical capacity of about 6.2 gigawatts (Source: www.iaea.org/PRIS) more energy and have been focusing on a National People‘s Congress in March 2016, seems downright ridiculous. massive expansion of their nuclear power envisages a faster expansion of nuclear ca- capacities for some time. It is therefore not pacity than has been the case to date: previ- However, India has literally slept through its surprising that 53 additional nuclear reactors ously, capacity was expected to rise to 58 entry into nuclear energy and is now despe- with a total net electrical capacity of around gigawatts in the coming years, but now more rately searching for recoverable deposits, but 56.3 gigawatts are currently under construc- than 90 gigawatts are under discussion. In also has to expand its overloaded power tion. Plans for 110 additional ones have al- 2005, the plan was still based on a mere 40 grid. A tenfold increase in nuclear energy ca- ready been completed and 330 more are in gigawatts by 2020. By 2030, 110 reactors pacities seems not only sensible, but also the pipeline. should be on the grid. A total of 10 nuclear urgently necessary. reactors are currently under construction. In a further step, China‘s nuclear power genera- India itself has hardly any significant uranium The demand situation tion is to be expanded to 120 to 160 giga- deposits. An expansion of its own nuclear watts by 2030! energy capacities by a factor of ten would at China is only at the beginning of the same time mean a 10% increase in total the nuclear age While in Germany the abolition of nuclear global nuclear power generation. power generation was sealed shortly after While many self-proclaimed experts had al- the events in Fukushima, China has decided But where is the additionally required urani- ready prophesied the end of the nuclear age, exactly the opposite and is making every ef- um going to come from? Currently, only a few this is still in its infancy in the world‘s most fort to produce cheap electricity by means of of India‘s 22 nuclear reactors are running at populous country. 48 reactors with a total net a chain reaction. In view of an ever-increa- full load. While Japan, China, Russia and electrical capacity of 45.5 gigawatts are ope- sing energy demand - mainly due to rising South Korea in particular have been able to rated in the Middle Kingdom, which has so prosperity - and a catastrophic CO2 balance, secure uranium resources worldwide in far mainly used coal to generate electricity. China‘s path in this direction seems only lo- recent years, India has completely missed Of these, 9 new reactors alone have been put gical. this opportunity. Only recently, several into operation since the beginning of 2018. purchase agreements have been concluded The expansion of nuclear power in China is with companies from the USA, Canada, Na- 12 13
mibia, Kazakhstan, Russia, Great Britain and Emirates, entered nuclear power production. ar power. Because, given the amount of ad- South Korea. Another 3 reactors are under construction ditional electricity required over the next two there. to three decades, renewable energies can At present, 7 nuclear reactors are under con- only serve as an admixture to the overall struction in India, with another 42 to follow by energy mix. 2050. The USA in particular is threate- ned by the energy collapse For this very reason, a law to increase and promote energy production using nuclear Russia with increasing nuclear With 96 reactors, the USA has by far the lar- power has already been created as part of capacity gest active nuclear power plant fleet in the the „Clean Energy Act of 2009“, a program- world. Nevertheless, the USA is threatened me for the provision of carbon-free energy. Russia and Brazil have also announced a with a collapse in energy supply. The United Both US government parties have drawn up massive expansion of their nuclear power States is still the country with the highest per an $18.5 billion plan to double nuclear power plants. Russia currently operates 38 nuclear capita consumption of electricity in the wor- capacity by 2030. At the beginning of 2010, reactors with about 29.2 gigawatts. 4 plants ld. And the Americans‘ hunger for energy is President Obama announced that the US go- are in the construction phase. In addition, growing. Many of the coal-fired power plants vernment would include in the 2011 federal Russia plans to build 46 more nuclear power that still date from the 1950s and 1960s ope- budget additional funds of $36 billion for sta- plants, which should increase the share of rate inefficiently and uneconomically. Sooner te guarantees for the construction of a new the same time, more than 75% of the expec- Overview of the age of the currently nuclear energy in the Russian energy mix rather than later they have to be taken off the generation of nuclear reactors. This meant a ted reactor demand until 2025 is not contrac- running reactors. Many will (have to) be from currently 15% to over 20%. In a further grid. Electricity consumption, on the other tripling of the originally planned budget tually secured. For a commodity such as ura- replaced by more powerful ones in the step, Russia wants to increase this quota hand, is rising steadily. So, the USA has no funds. nium, which is only marginally traded, this coming years. again to 25%. choice but to increase the number of its nuc- return to more „normal“ long-term contracts (Source: www.iaea.org/PRIS) lear reactors in the coming years. Of course, In recent years, an application has been is likely to put enormous pressure on both climate-friendly energy is also provided by made for an extension of the operating lives long-term prices and spot prices. Internatio- Rising global expansion of nucle- photovoltaic systems, wind farms, hydro- of more than 60 US nuclear reactors to 60 nal plant operators are therefore now increa- ar energy electric power plants or geothermal energy, years of total operating time. In addition, 42 singly showing signs of increased buying ac- but these energy producers can only solve applications have been submitted for the tivity. In addition to the 30 nations that already acute energy problems to a limited extent, as construction of new nuclear power plants. So have nuclear reactors online, another 17 they are very costly on the one hand and their far, however, only 4 plants are under const- countries are planning to install nuclear pow- output fluctuates according to the time of ruction, another 21 are in the concrete plan- Summary er plants. Among them are Egypt, Jordan, day and weather conditions on the other. ning phase. Turkey and Indonesia. At the beginning of What therefore remains as the only clima- The fact is that 442 reactors are currently in March 2020, the 31st nation, the United Arab te-friendly energy production option is nucle- operation and at least 330 more are to be ad- Long-term supply contracts to ded by 2040. 53 plants are already under Overview of currently running reactors expire shortly construction, another 110 are in the concrete (blue), currently shut down reactors planning phase. Even if half of the old reac- (grey), reactors under construction The previous cycle of contracts, dominated tors were to be taken off the grid by then, 500 (green) and permanently shut down by the uranium price peaks of 2007 and to 600 reactors would be active in 2040. reactors (red). Above all China, India, 2010, has led plant operators to enter into South Korea, Russia, the United Arab higher-priced contracts with very long dura- Furthermore, about 90% of all long-term Emirates and the USA are currently tions of about 8 to 10 years. On the one hand, supply contracts between the uranium pro- working on expanding their reactor these old contracts are expiring, but on the ducers and the power generation companies fleets. other hand the plant operators have not yet expire by the end of 2020, which is likely to (Source: www.iaea.org/PRIS) made any effort to replace these supply volu- put established nuclear power nations such mes. Forward transactions by plant opera- as the USA in particular in a predicament. tors are therefore declining sharply, which means that the quantities required for which there is no contractual obligation yet, but which must be contractually secured in fu- ture, are also increasing. Uncovered demand is expected to be just under one billion pounds of U3O8 over the next 10 years. At 14 15
The supply situation 29,000 tonnes of uranium were extracted from the ground. After the end of the Cold production cuts and closed its McArthur Ri- ver mine and Key Lake facilities indefinitely in which is mined as a by-product in other mi- nes, has also recently seen a decline in sup- War, disarmed nuclear weapons in particular January 2018. The Rabbit Lake mine was ply due to various mine closures. Established producers are became the most important source for US also closed, both of which are among the ten running out of air uranium demand. This led to a decline in largest uranium mines in the world. McArthur American uranium production to less than River is the mine with the second highest Huge supply gap already existing The established uranium producing nations 500 tons of uranium per year at the end of the uranium production worldwide. With the tem- before Corona Australia, Canada, Russia and Niger were al- war. As a direct consequence, much of the porary closure, 10% of the total world pro- ready having problems expanding their pro- infrastructure and approved production faci- duction was taken off the market at a stroke. Overall, uranium production has declined by duction before the Corona crisis. All four lities were simply closed or completely dis- In addition, Cameco has for some time been about 60% since about the beginning of countries together produced almost 19,333 mantled. Currently, only a few mines remain acting as a uranium buyer itself in order to March 2020 due to corona alone, although it tonnes of uranium in 2018. In 2009 the figure in Texas, Arizona and Wyoming. supply long-term, higher-priced supply cont- should be noted that the supply shortfall was was 28,000 tonnes of uranium. Australia has racts with corresponding uranium volumes at already about 40 million pounds of uranium experienced recurring problems at BHP Billi- spot prices. per year before that. The current demand is ton‘s Olympic Dam Mine, by far the country‘s Kazakhstan – the new uranium thus largely covered by stocks, which are highest-yielding uranium mine. In Canada, superpower Since 2017 Kazatomprom has reduced its thus rapidly dwindling. So, in fact, there is al- the start of production at Cameco‘s McArthur uranium production by about 15% and Ca- ready a supply shortfall. At the current level River Mine had to be postponed tens of times While almost all established uranium pro- nada by about 45%. Furthermore, Cameco of 442 nuclear reactors worldwide, consump- due to repeated ingress of large amounts of ducers are experiencing difficulties in rebuil- closed its Cigar Lake mine in March 2020 for tion is about 183 million pounds of U3O8, of groundwater. In Niger, mine openings that ding or expanding their uranium production, four weeks due to corona, which was subse- which only about 139 million pounds are co- had also been planned had to be postponed. one region has now moved past all other quently extended. In addition, Orano‘s McC- vered by global uranium production (exclu- In some cases, however, mines were also countries to the forefront of uranium produc- lean Lake processing plant also had to close. ding the special effect of corona). The Inter- shut down due to the weak uranium spot tion: Central Asia. In the last ten years, Ka- Other closures include Moab Khotseng in national Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) esti- price. zakhstan in particular has multiplied its urani- South Africa and the Chinese-owned mines mates that the construction of new nuclear um production there. Uranium production in Husab and Rössing in Namibia, to name but power plants will increase global uranium the former Soviet Republic rose from 1,870 the most important. The spot market, whose demand to up to 300 million pounds of U3O8 US uranium production is down to over 24,586 tonnes between 2000 and supply is mainly composed of uranium, in 2030. 2016. In 2009, Kazakhstan thus also over- The situation in the USA is even more threa- took the previous leader Canada and is now tening. Although the Obama administration responsible for almost 40% of total global has decided on a US$ 54 billion programme uranium production. to promote the nuclear power industry in 2010, it is still far from clear where the urani- um needed to operate the reactors will come Massive production cuts have from. The uranium industry in the USA is only already been initiated a shadow of the past. In the last 45 years, practically nothing has been invested in the But although Kazakhstan is one of the na- development of new deposits and almost tions that can currently mine uranium at the Uranium spot price (blue) and long term 95% of the uranium required has been ob- lowest cost, the country has long since cea- price (red) including major events for tained from disarmament programmes. US sed to be prepared to sell its uranium depo- the sector nuclear reactors already consume about sits at rock-bottom prices. In early 2017, the (Source: Company presentation 21,300 tonnes of uranium annually. An in- state-owned Kazatomprom announced that Laramide Resources) crease in capacity would therefore also re- its own uranium production would be cut by quire an increase in the amount of uranium at least 20% in 2017. In May 2018 Kazatom- needed. The World Nuclear Association prom announced further production cuts. In (WNA) estimates that by 2035, the USA alone addition, production had to be further re- 1. early 2000s: major mine disruptions after U3O8 cutbacks (Cameco, Kazatomprom); US will need about 40,000 tonnes of uranium an- duced due to corona. price was at all-time low government support and global demand for nually. Even in the heyday of US uranium pro- 2. mid to late 2000s: new supply contracts nuclear power generation; new financial players duction in the 1960s and 1970s, it would not However, Kazatomprom is not the only urani- concluded (Yellow Cake, Uranium Participation, Uranium have been possible to extract such a quantity um producer that has been relying on pro- 3. March, 2011: Fukushima Royalty, etc.); long-term contracts expiring; new from their own plants. US uranium producti- duction cuts in view of the weak uranium 4. in the past 12 months: Major production construction of nuclear reactors. on reached its peak in 1980, when about price. Uranium major Cameco announced 16 17
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