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2012
Getting ready for a Changing Climate:
What should we do?
… a workshop about weathering the storm
Information Package
A Citizen Panel Workshop on
Climate Change
Ottawa, Ontario
Getting ready for a Changing Climate: What should we do? February 2012
... a workshop about weathering the storm
Ontario Centre for Climate Impacts and Adaptation Resources
OCCIAR is a university-based, resource hub for researchers and stakeholders that provides information
on climate change impacts and adaptation. The centre communicates the latest research on climate
change impacts and adaptation, liaises with partners across Canada to encourage adaptation to climate
change and aids in the development and application of tools to assist with municipal adaptation. The
Centre is also a hub for climate change impacts and adaptation activities, events and resources.
http://www.climateontario.ca
Community Adaptation Initiative
The Ontario Centre for Climate Impacts and Adaptation Resources (OCCIAR) and the Clean Air
Partnership (CAP) were selected to coordinate an outreach project on climate change. The Community
Adaptation Initiative is a project to help communities address the challenges of climate change. This
initiative will work with private and public sector groups, conservation authorities and non-
governmental organizations to become more resilient to climate change and its impacts.
http://www.ene.gov.on.ca/en/air/climatechange/communityadaptation.php
Acknowledgements
OCCIAR would like to thank the Ontario Ministry of the Environment for their generous support of the
Community Adaptation Initiative.
For more information, please contact:
Al Douglas Dr. David Pearson
Director, OCCIAR Science Advisor, OCCIAR
MIRARCO/Laurentian University Co-Chair, Ontario's Expert Panel on Climate Change Adaptation
935 Ramsey Lake Road Laurentian University
Sudbury, Ontario P3E 2C6 935 Ramsey Lake Road
705-675-1151 ext. 1506 Sudbury, Ontario P3E 2C6
adouglas@mirarco.org 705-675-1151 ext. 2336
dpearson@laurentian.ca
Jacqueline Richard Annette Morand
Coordinator, OCCIAR Community Adaptation Coordinator, OCCIAR
MIRARCO/Laurentian University MIRARCO/Laurentian University
935 Ramsey Lake Road 935 Ramsey Lake Road
Sudbury, Ontario P3E 2C6 Sudbury, Ontario P3E 2C6
705-675-1151 ext. 2014 705-675-1151 ext. 5117
jrichard@mirarco.org amorand@mirarco.org
Note: OCCIAR does not claim to be the source of the information provided in this package. The
information is taken from the various sources you will find cited and listed in the Endnotes and
Bibliography.
OCCIAR Citizen Panel Workshop 1
Ottawa, Ontario
Getting ready for a Changing Climate: What should we do? February 2012
... a workshop about weathering the storm
Getting ready for a Changing Climate: What should we do?
...a workshop about weathering the storm
A Citizen Panel Workshop on Climate Change
Hilton Garden Inn
2400 Alert Road
Ottawa, Ontario
K1V 1S1
February 25 - 26, 2012
Bona Vista conference hall
&
March 3 - 4, 2012
Leomont conference hall
OCCIAR Citizen Panel Workshop 2
Ottawa, Ontario
Getting ready for a Changing Climate: What should we do? February 2012
... a workshop about weathering the storm
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1.0 INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................................... 5
1.1 Purpose ........................................................................................................................... 5
1.2 Outline ............................................................................................................................ 5
1.3 Moving Forward................................................................................................................ 7
1.4 Workshop Agenda ............................................................................................................. 8
2.0 GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ....................................................................................................10
2.1 Terminology ....................................................................................................................10
2.2 Evidence of a Changing Climate..........................................................................................11
2.3 Causes of Climate Change..................................................................................................12
2.4 The Role of Human Activity................................................................................................15
2.5 Future Climate Projections ................................................................................................16
2.6 Global Impacts.................................................................................................................18
3.0 CLIMATE CHANGE IN ONTARIO..............................................................................................19
3.1 Evidence that Our Climate is changing.................................................................................20
3.2 Impacts ..........................................................................................................................21
3.2.1 Health ......................................................................................................................21
3.2.2 Water Quality and Quantity.........................................................................................23
3.2.3 Infrastructure............................................................................................................23
3.2.4 Agriculture................................................................................................................24
3.2.5 Mining......................................................................................................................25
3.2.6 Forestry....................................................................................................................25
3.2.7 Shipping and Transportation........................................................................................26
3.2.8 Energy......................................................................................................................27
3.2.9 Fishing......................................................................................................................28
3.2.10 Tourism and Recreation ............................................................................................29
3.2.11 Ecosystems..............................................................................................................30
3.2.12 Invasive Species .......................................................................................................30
4.0 RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE ..........................................................................................32
OCCIAR Citizen Panel Workshop 3
Ottawa, Ontario
Getting ready for a Changing Climate: What should we do? February 2012
... a workshop about weathering the storm
4.1 Mitigation .......................................................................................................................32
4.2 Adaptation ......................................................................................................................35
4.3 Adaptation at the Local Level .............................................................................................36
4.4 Examples of Adaptation ....................................................................................................37
5.0 CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY .....................................................................................................39
5.1 Climate Change Policy in Canada ........................................................................................42
5.2 Canada’s Current Adaptation Initiatives...............................................................................45
5.3 Ontario’s Actions on Climate Change ..................................................................................47
6.0 CONCLUDING REMARKS .......................................................................................................48
7.0 APPENDIX...........................................................................................................................51
7.1 Future Climate - Climate Change Projections for Ontario........................................................51
7.2 Historic Climate and Climate Trends for Ottawa....................................................................58
7.2.1 Annual Temperature and Precipitation..........................................................................59
7.2.2 Winter Temperature and Precipitation ..........................................................................60
7.2.3 Spring Temperature and Precipitation...........................................................................61
7.2.4 Summer Temperature and Precipitation........................................................................62
7.2.5 Fall Temperature and Precipitation...............................................................................63
7.3 Examples of Countries Adapting to Climate Change...............................................................64
7.3.1 United Kingdom.........................................................................................................64
7.3.2 Australia ...................................................................................................................65
7.4 Websites for Further Reading ............................................................................................67
8.0 GLOSSARY ..........................................................................................................................72
9.0 REFERENCES .......................................................................................................................82
9.1 Photo Credits...................................................................................................................82
9.2 Endnotes ........................................................................................................................86
9.3 Bibliography........................................................................................................................93
OCCIAR Citizen Panel Workshop 4
Ottawa, Ontario
Getting ready for a Changing Climate: What should we do? February 2012
... a workshop about weathering the storm
1.0 INTRODUCTION
Welcome and thank you for applying to be a part of ‘Getting
ready for a Changing Climate: What should we do? …a workshop
about weathering the storm’. Now that you have been chosen
as one of the Panel members, you will play a vital role in a
groundbreaking group discussion on climate change that will
reach key decision-makers within all three levels of government,
particularly the province of Ontario.
Over the course of this Citizen Panel Workshop (CPW) you will
hear the latest information on climate change, interact with
experts and provide recommendations on climate change
adaptation policies that could influence your life, and the lives of those around you. In other
words, you will be given the opportunity to provide informed opinions to government and
ultimately impact policy.
1.1 Purpose
The Ontario Centre for Climate Impacts and Adaptation Resources (OCCIAR) is hosting two
CPWs under the Ontario Ministry of the Environment’s Community Adaptation Initiative, one of
which is being held in Ottawa, Ontario. The purpose of these CPWs is to find out what the
public has to say about the steps Ontario is taking to prepare for the effects of a changing
climate. Although not widely used in Canada, citizen panels are recognized as a great way to
include public knowledge, experience, and values in developing new policies and programs.
Ontario currently has two overarching strategies to help the province reduce the levels of
climate warming gases and adapt to the consequences of a changing climate: 1)Go Green:
Ontario’s Action Plan on Climate Change, and 2) Climate
Ready: Ontario’s Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan. We
are very keen to hear what the public has to say about the
government’s efforts. For the purpose of this citizen panel,
we will be focusing mainly on the latter of the two strategies
– Climate Ready.
1.2 Outline
Weekend 1 will be a two-way knowledge sharing session.
The Panel will get to listen to, and question, experts on the
OCCIAR Citizen Panel Workshop 5
Ottawa, Ontario
Getting ready for a Changing Climate: What should we do? February 2012
... a workshop about weathering the storm
science and impacts of climate change, adapting
to changing weather patterns, reducing
emissions, and some of the history of climate
change policy in Ontario, Canada, and around the
world. There will be time for discussion where
the Panel can interact with experts and other
Panel members, pose questions, and express
values and interests. In the end, our intention is
to make sure that the Panel is up-to-date with the
latest information and understanding of climate
change.
Weekend 2 will be an interactive workshop focussing on evaluating and making
recommendations on Climate Ready through a structured ‘brainstorming’ session. The Panel
members will work together in small Interest Groups to discuss specific themes within Climate
Ready and create a list of comments, ideas, and recommendations on specific goals and
actions. These interest groups will focus on answering the following three questions:
1) Which of the actions in Climate Ready do you believe are the most important/highest
priority and why?
2) What actions do you believe should be implemented that are not in Climate Ready and
why?
3) What actions by other levels of government (Federal and Municipal) do you believe
would make the province’s actions more effective and why?
Whether it is strengthening or evaluating existing policies, suggesting new policy ideas, or
simply adding to the conversation, we will take each and every comment into consideration.
Our goal is to work with the Panel to assemble a comprehensive list of recommendations,
making sure that they are accurate and representative of the Interest Group discussion
sessions. The recommendations will be put into a final report which will be sent to each Panel
member for review before being presented to the Ontario Ministry of the Environment. In
conclusion, the goal of the conference is to elevate the Panel’s knowledge of climate change
with a focus on impacts and adaptation, and to gather recommendations for action that will be
presented to the Provincial government.
OCCIAR Citizen Panel Workshop 6
Ottawa, Ontario
Getting ready for a Changing Climate: What should we do? February 2012
... a workshop about weathering the storm
1.3 Moving Forward
We understand this is a big commitment, but it is also a great opportunity to have your voice
heard by government and have a direct impact on future climate change policies in Ontario.
You should think of this conference as a job – and it is crucial that you realize the importance of
your new position; you are now one of the voices whose opinions and ideas on climate change
will be heard at the decision-making level in
Ontario. One of the initial requirements needed in
order to ensure that you are successful in your new
position is to be well versed on climate change and
the policies that surround it.
For that reason we are providing each Panel
member with the following information package.
After you are finished reading through the package,
you will be up to date on climate change science,
impacts, adaptation, mitigation, and policies so that
you are ready to provide informed recommendations to government and interact with experts.
Consider this package as your new training manual – take some time to read through it, jot
down any questions that you have, and simply enjoy learning about one of the main
environmental issues of the 21st century.
OCCIAR Citizen Panel Workshop 7
Ottawa, Ontario
Getting ready for a Changing Climate: What should we do? February 2012
... a workshop about weathering the storm
1.4 Workshop Agenda
*This is a draft agenda which is subject to change
Getting ready for a Changing Climate: What should we do?
…a workshop about weathering the storm
Hilton Garden Inn Ottawa Airport
2400 Alert Road, Ottawa, Ontario, K1V 1S1
Session 1 - Saturday, February 25, 2012
Climate Change Science: Responding through Adaptation and Mitigation
8:00am to 8:30am Registration and Breakfast
8:30am to 8:45am Welcome and Orientation
8:45am to 9:15am Introductions
9:15am to 10:00am Global efforts to respond to Climate Change
10:00am to 10:15am Break
10:15am to 11:15am The Science of Climate Change
11:15am to 12:00pm Climate Change Adaptation Project (Canada)
12:00pm to 1:00pm Lunch
1:00pm to 1:45pm Climate change, Water Resources, Fish and Fisheries
1:45pm to 2:30pm Climate Change and Ontario: Impacts to Adaptation (A Terrestrial Perspective)
2:30pm to 2:45pm Break
2:45pm to 3:30pm Climate Change Impacts: A Local Health Perspective
3:30pm to 4:15pm Climate Change Impacts on Infrastructure
4:15pm to 4:30pm End of day wrap up/discussion
Session 2 - Sunday, February 26, 2012
Climate Change Policy: National, Provincial, and Local Perspectives
8:00am to 8:30am Breakfast
8:30am to 8:45am Welcome and Orientation
8:45am to 9:30am How can communities prepare for climate change?
9:30am to 10:15am Adaptation: Barriers to Action and Examples of International Progress
10:15am to 10:30am Break
10:30am to 11:15am Adaptation Across Canada
11:15am to 12:00pm Canada's Adaptation Policy Initiatives and Programs
12:00pm to 1:00pm Lunch
1:00pm to 1:45pm Ontario's Expert Panel on Climate Change
OCCIAR Citizen Panel Workshop 8
Ottawa, Ontario
Getting ready for a Changing Climate: What should we do? February 2012
... a workshop about weathering the storm
1:45pm to 2:30pm Greenhouse Gas Mitigation: Provincial Perspectives and Initiatives
2:30pm to 2:45pm Break
2:45pm to 4:00pm Vision to Action: an In-Depth Look at Climate Ready
Group Brainstorm: The panel must choose 8-12 topics for the interest group
4:00pm to 4:15pm
discussions during weekend 2
4:15pm to 4:30pm Weekend Wrap Up/Summary
Session 3 - Saturday, March 3, 2012
Interactive Workshop: Interest Group Evaluations of Climate Ready
8:00am to 8:30am Breakfast
8:30am to 8:45am Welcome and Orientation
8:45am to 9:45am Round 1 of Interest Groups
9:45am to 10:15am Report Back from Round 1
10:15am to 10:30am Break
10:30am to 11:30am Round 2 of Interest Groups
11:30am to 12:00pm Report Back from Round 2
12:00pm to 1:00pm Lunch
1:00pm to 2:00pm Round 3 of Interest Groups
2:00pm to 2:30pm Report Back from Round 3
2:30pm to 2:45pm Break
2:45pm to 3:45pm Round 4 of Interest Groups
3:45pm to 4:15pm Report Back from Round 4
4:15pm to 4:30pm End of day wrap up/summary
Session 4 - Sunday, March 4, 2012
Finalizing the Recommendations to Government
8:00am to 8:30am Breakfast
8:30am to 8:45am Welcome and Orientation
8:45am to 11:45am Review: Final Recommendations
11:45am to 12:00pm Next Steps and Evaluation of the Conference
12:00pm to 1:00pm Lunch
OCCIAR Citizen Panel Workshop 9
Ottawa, OntarioGetting ready for a Changing Climate: What should we do? February 2012
... a workshop about weathering the storm
2.0 GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
There is international scientific agreement that
the world is getting warmer. By examining
climate records, scientists have determined that
the temperature of the air at the Earth’s surface
has warmed by approximately 0.74°C since the
beginning of the 20th century.1 Evidence from
tree rings, tropical corals and Greenland ice cores
indicate that, at least for the Northern
Hemisphere, the 20th century was the warmest
of the past 1,000 years with the 1990s being the
Figure 1: Earth’s surface has warmed by
warmest decade of the millennium. Furthermore, approximately 0.74°C since the late 19th century
it is getting even warmer, with most experts
agreeing that average global temperatures will rise by 1.4°C to 5.8°C over the next century.2
These seemingly small numbers may look insignificant, but relatively small changes in average
temperatures can have huge consequences. For example, during the last Ice Age about 20,000
years ago, average temperatures were only 5°C cooler than they are today, but most of Canada
was covered by several kilometres of ice.3
What’s the Difference between 2.1 Terminology
Climate and Weather?
The terms ‘global warming’ and ‘climate change’ are
often used to describe the same phenomenon. In
Weather is the condition of various
elements of the atmosphere at a actuality they are distinguishable as cause and effect,
particular place and time. It is what is or problem and consequence.5
happening outside at a certain moment.
A thunderstorm or blizzard would be Global warming refers to the increase in the
classified as “weather.” temperature of Earth’s lower atmosphere as a result
of the enhanced greenhouse effect. The resulting
Climate is what you get when you
average the weather over a long period impacts of this temperature increase are what we
of time (usually 30 years, sometimes refer to as climate change. This includes shifts in wind
more) and when you look at how the patterns and the amount and type of precipitation,
weather varies around these averages.
which in turn influence the types and frequency of
For example, a place that doesn’t get
much rain over many years would be severe weather events that may be expected to occur
described as having a dry climate. A in an area. Thus, we are experiencing climate change
place where it stays cold for most of the as a result of global warming.6
year would be described as having a cold
climate.4
OCCIAR Citizen Panel Workshop 10
Ottawa, OntarioGetting ready for a Changing Climate: What should we do? February 2012
... a workshop about weathering the storm
2.2 Evidence of a Changing Climate
Scientific research shows that Earth's climate has
been changing throughout history. Just in the last
650,000 years there have been seven cycles of
glacial advance and retreat, with the abrupt end of
the last ice age about 7,000 years ago marking the
beginning of the modern climate era, and of
human civilization.7 For example, from 1000–1300
AD, there was a period of relatively mild climate
called the ‘Medieval Warm Period’ when
Figure 2: Earth’s climate has changed throughout
temperatures in the northern hemisphere were history, with the last ice age ending about 7,000
believed to be at least 0.8°C warmer than today. A years ago
few centuries later, between 1450 and 1850 AD during what is termed the ‘Little Ice Age’,
global temperatures were between 1.0 and 2.0°C cooler than today. 8
Most of these climate changes are attributed to very small variations in Earth’s orbit that
change the amount of solar energy our planet receives. However, the current warming trend is
of particular significance because it is proceeding at a rate that is unprecedented in the past
1,300 years and is very likely human-induced.9
Is the Sun to Blame?
How do we know that changes in the sun are not to blame for current global warming trends?
Since 1978, a series of satellite instruments have measured the energy output of the sun directly. The
satellite data shows a very slight drop in solar irradiance (which is a measure of the amount of energy
the sun gives off) over this time period. So the sun does not appear to be responsible for the warming
trend observed over the past 30 years. 10
The evidence of rapid global climate change is compelling; with
major global surface temperature reconstructions showing that
Earth has been warming steadily since 1880, with the 20
warmest years on record having occurred since 1981. According
to a 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
report, 11 of the 12 years between 1995 and 2006 ranked
amongst the warmest years since instrumental records of global
surface temperature began in 1850. 11 And even though the
Figure 3: A solar minimum 2000s witnessed a solar output decline resulting in an unusually
occurred in 2007-2009, but global
deep solar minimum in 2007-2009, surface temperatures
temperatures continued to rise
continued to increase.12
OCCIAR Citizen Panel Workshop 11
Ottawa, OntarioGetting ready for a Changing Climate: What should we do? February 2012 ... a workshop about weathering the storm Figure 4: Global mean temperature over land and ocean from 1880 to present The oceans have absorbed much of this increased heat. The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have also decreased in mass; Greenland lost 150 - 250 cubic kilometres of ice per year between 2002 and 2006, while Antarctica lost about 152 cubic kilometres of ice between 2002 and 2005. Also, both the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice has declined rapidly over the last several decades. This melting has resulted in a global sea level rise of about 17 centimetres in the last century, with the rate in the last decade nearly doubling that of the last one hundred years.13 2.3 Causes of Climate Change Contributions to changes in the climate arise from both natural sources and human (anthropogenic) sources. However, since the Industrial Revolution began about 150 years ago, climate change due to human influences has increased significantly. Humans continue to rely on fossil fuels and alter the landscape in various ways through development. On a global scale, these activities affect both emissions of greenhouse gases as well as the composition of the atmosphere, thereby influencing the amount of heat energy escaping to space.14 Most climate scientists will agree that the main cause of the current global warming trend is human expansion of the ‘greenhouse effect’.15 OCCIAR Citizen Panel Workshop 12 Ottawa, Ontario
Getting ready for a Changing Climate: What should we do? February 2012
... a workshop about weathering the storm
The greenhouse effect refers to the way that the atmosphere insulates the planet from heat
loss; much like a blanket on our bed insulates our bodies from heat loss. This is how it works:
as the sun’s energy reaches the Earth’s surface, some of it is reflected and some of it is
absorbed. The absorbed energy warms the Earth. This heat is then radiated back out towards
space as infrared energy. Certain chemical compounds in the Earth’s atmosphere act as
‘greenhouse gases’, absorbing the radiated infrared energy and thereby trapping some of the
heat in the atmosphere.16
Figure 5: A layer of greenhouse gases (primarily water vapour and much smaller amounts of carbon
dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide) act as a thermal blanket for the Earth, absorbing heat and
warming the surface to a life-supporting average of 14°C
The greenhouse gases radiate this energy in all directions, including back towards the Earth.
This energy is used in a number of different processes including heating the ground surface,
melting ice and snow, evaporating water, and plant photosynthesis. Most importantly, these
greenhouse gases trap energy in the climate system, warming the Earth’s surface to an average
of 14°C. This phenomenon, called the ‘natural’ greenhouse effect, keeps the Earth in a
temperature range that allows life to thrive. Without it, the sun’s heat would escape and the
average temperature of the Earth would drop to approximately –19°C.17 The following
represent the major greenhouse gases:
Water vapour (H2O). The most abundant greenhouse gas. But more importantly, it acts
as a feedback to the climate; water vapour increases as the Earth's atmosphere warms,
OCCIAR Citizen Panel Workshop 13
Ottawa, OntarioGetting ready for a Changing Climate: What should we do? February 2012
... a workshop about weathering the storm
but so does the possibility of clouds and precipitation, making these some of the most
important feedback mechanisms to the greenhouse effect.
Carbon dioxide (CO2). A minor but very important component of the atmosphere.
Carbon dioxide is released through natural processes (respiration and volcano
eruptions) as well as through human activities such as deforestation, land use changes,
and burning fossil fuels. Humans have increased atmospheric carbon dioxide
concentration by one third since the Industrial Revolution began. This is the most
important long-lived ‘forcing’ of climate change. Its annual emissions grew by about 80
percent between 1970 and 2004.
Methane (CH4). A hydrocarbon gas produced through natural sources and human
activities, including the decomposition of wastes in landfills, agriculture, and rice
cultivation as well as ruminant digestion and manure management associated with
domestic livestock. On a molecule-for-molecule basis, methane is a far more active
greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, but also one which is much less abundant in the
atmosphere.
Nitrous oxide (N2O). A powerful greenhouse gas produced by soil cultivation practices,
especially the use of commercial and organic fertilizers, fossil fuel combustion, nitric
acid production, and biomass burning.
Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). Synthetic compounds of industrial origin used in a number
of applications. Because of their ability to destroy the ozone layer, they are now largely
regulated.18
Concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have grown significantly since pre -
industrial times, amplifying the natural greenhouse effect and warming the planet, affecting
wind patterns, precipitation, and storm events.19 In fact, annual emissions of greenhouse gases
grew by about 80 percent between 1970 and 2004. 20 The global atmospheric concentration of
carbon dioxide has increased from a pre-industrial value of about 280 parts per million (ppm) to
392 ppm in February, 2012. 21 The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide in 2012 exceeds
by far the natural range over the last 650,000 years as determined from ice cores.
OCCIAR Citizen Panel Workshop 14
Ottawa, OntarioGetting ready for a Changing Climate: What should we do? February 2012
... a workshop about weathering the storm
Figure 6: This graph, based on the comparison of atmospheric samples contained in ice cores and more
recent direct measurements, provides evidence that atmospheric carbon dioxide has increased
dramatically since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution
2.4 The Role of Human Activity
The burning of fossil fuels – primarily coal, oil and natural gas – currently accounts for 70 to 90
percent of all human emissions of carbon dioxide. Fossil fuels are used for transportation,
manufacturing, heating, cooling, electricity generation, and other applications. The remainder
of the carbon dioxide emissions comes from human land use activities such as ranching,
agriculture and the clearing and degradation of forests. Other primary sources of greenhouse
gases include the production and transport of fossil fuels, waste management and industrial
processes.22
Any changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations will affect the amount of energy
stored in the atmosphere. For example, when the amount of carbon dioxide is increased, more
heat is trapped in the atmosphere. This ‘enhanced’
greenhouse effect causes the Earth’s surface
temperature to rise.23
In its 2007 Fourth Assessment Report, the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a
group of 1,300 independent scientific experts from
countries all over the world under the auspices of
the United Nations, concluded that there is a better
than 90 percent probability that human-produced
greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane
Figure 7: There is a more than 90 percent
and nitrous oxide have caused much of the observed probability that humans are warming the planet
OCCIAR Citizen Panel Workshop 15
Ottawa, OntarioGetting ready for a Changing Climate: What should we do? February 2012
... a workshop about weathering the storm
increase in Earth's temperatures over the past 50 years. They stated that the rate of increase in
global warming due to these gases is very likely to be unprecedented within the past 10,000
years or more.24
2.5 Future Climate Projections
Global Circulation Models (or GCMs) are numerical models that
represent the physical processes in the atmosphere, ocean,
cryosphere and land surface. They are the most advanced tools
currently available for simulating and estimating the response of
the global climate system to increasing greenhouse gas
concentrations.25 Due to uncertainties about future emissions and
concentrations of greenhouse gases, their net warming effect in
the atmosphere, and the response of the climate system,
estimates of future temperature change are uncertain. With these
Figure 8: An example of what a caveats in mind, the IPCC made the following projections of future
GCM might look like
warming:
The average surface temperature of the Earth is likely to increase by 1.1-6.4°C by the end of the
21st century, relative to 1980-1990, with a best estimate of 1.8-4.0°C. The average rate of
warming over each inhabited continent is very likely to be at least twice as large as that
experienced during the 20th century. 26
Figure 9: Temperature projections to the year 2100, based on a range of emission scenarios and global climate
models. Scenarios that assume the highest growth in greenhouse gas emissions provide the estimates in the top end
of the temperature range. The orange line (“constant CO 2”) projects global temperatures with greenhouse gas
concentrations stabilized at year 2000 levels
OCCIAR Citizen Panel Workshop 16
Ottawa, OntarioGetting ready for a Changing Climate: What should we do? February 2012
... a workshop about weathering the storm
According to several recent studies, even if the composition of today's atmosphere was fixed
(which would imply a dramatic reduction in current emissions), surface air temperatures would
continue to warm by approximately 0.1ºC per decade; see the ‘constant CO 2’ line in Figure 9.
This is because a portion of the warming associated with past human activity has n ot yet been
realized; many of the greenhouse gases that have already been emitted remain in the
atmosphere for decades or longer, and will continue to contribute to warming for their
duration. Therefore, the Earth is committed to continued warming.27
Warming will not be evenly distributed around the globe. Land areas will warm more than
oceans due to water's ability to store heat. High latitudes will warm more than low latitudes,
with most of North America, all of Africa, Europe, northern and central Asia, as well as most of
Central and South America likely warming more than
the global average. Projections suggest that the
warming will be close to the global average in south
Asia, Australia, New Zealand, and southern South
America. Warming will also differ by season, with
winters warming more than summers in most areas. 28
Furthermore, future temperature changes will not
depend solely on the direct effects of natural and
human influences. Temperatures may change due to Figure 10: The ice-albedo effect increases the
initial rate of warming
what are known as climate ‘feedbacks’ – processes that
change as a result of a change in forcing.29 Feedbacks
can either be positive (increasing initial warming) or
negative (reducing initial warming).
An example of a positive feedback is the ice-albedo
effect. As the atmosphere warms, sea ice melts. Since
ice is highly reflective and the underlying ocean surface
is far less reflective, the darker ocean will absorb more
Figure 11: Clouds reflect 1/3 of the incoming
heat, get warmer, melt even more ice, and increase the sunlight, acting as a negative feedback
overall temperature of the Earth. 30
An example of a negative feedback is cloud cover. Clouds have an enormous impact on Earth's
climate, reflecting about one third of the total amount of sunlight reaching the Earth's
atmosphere back into space. As the atmosphere warms, the rate of evaporation increases
which produces more cloud cover, working as a coolant for earth’s surface temperature.
However, it is very difficult to predict cloud cover, making it very complicated to include it in
future climate change scenarios.31
OCCIAR Citizen Panel Workshop 17
Ottawa, OntarioGetting ready for a Changing Climate: What should we do? February 2012
... a workshop about weathering the storm
Many other feedbacks (both positive and negative) resulting from increased greenhouse gas
concentrations will likely influence the rate of warming. The net effect of known feedbacks
considered in most future warming projections is almost certainly positive, but there is
considerable uncertainty about the exact magnitude.32
2.6 Global Impacts
Every region on earth is being affected by climate change; some areas are experiencing positive
impacts while others are experiencing negative ones. On a global scale, the impacts of climate
change that have already been observed vary widely depending on the region. The
consequences of changing the natural atmospheric greenhouse are difficult to predict, but
certain effects seem likely.33
On average, Earth will become warmer. Some regions may welcome warmer temperatures, but
others may not. Warmer conditions will likely lead to more evaporation and precipitation
overall, but this will vary throughout different regions of the planet – some areas becoming
wetter while others become dryer.34
A stronger greenhouse effect will also warm the oceans and partially melt glaciers and other
ice, increasing sea level. Ocean water expands when it warms, contributing further to sea level
rise. Meanwhile, some crops and
other plants may respond
favourably to increased
atmospheric carbon dioxide,
growing more vigorously and
using water more efficiently. At
the same time, higher
temperatures and shifting climate
patterns may change the areas
Figure 12: Climate change will cause more frequent wildfires, longer
where crops grow best, and affect periods of drought and an increase in the number, duration and intensity
the makeup of natural plant of tropical storms
communities.35
It is important to note that some of these global environmental changes are already being
observed, and the effects that scientists had predicted in the past are now occurring (e.g. loss
of sea ice, accelerated sea level rise, and longer, more intense heat waves). Some of the
potential future effects of global climate change include more frequent wildfires, longer periods
of drought in some regions, and an increase in the number, duration, and intensity of tropical
storms.36
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Scientists have high confidence that global temperatures will continue to rise for decades to
come, largely due to greenhouse gases produced by human activities. The IPCC forecasts a
temperature rise of 1.1-6.4°C over the next century, and predicts that the extent of climate
change effects on individual regions will vary over time and with the ability of different societal
and environmental systems to mitigate or adapt to change. 37
In the context of Canada, every corner of the country will witness a range of impacts under a
warmer climate. In the north, warmer temperatures will continue to melt the permafrost
leading to unstable ground. In the west, diminishing glaciers will change seasonal runoff and
have an effect on water supply. The prairies are expected to see very hot and dry summer
seasons leading to droughts. The Atlantic Provinces will experience changes to precipitation
patterns causing flooding and ice-jams. The Great Lakes region could experience lower water
levels resulting in impacts to certain aquatic habitats, navigation, infrastructure, property
values, and the fishing industry. As well,
increasing temperatures and smog days may
cause a rise in the number of heat-related
illnesses such as heat-stress and heat-stroke,
and more frequent and powerful weather
events will likely put a strain on existing
infrastructure.38
Taken as a whole, the IPCC states, "the range
of published evidence indicates that the net
Figure 13: The IPCC forecasts a temperature rise of 1.1- damage costs of climate change are likely to
6.4 °C over the next century be significant and will increase over time."39
3.0 CLIMATE CHANGE IN ONTARIO
Although most activities in Ontario are relatively well adapted to current climate conditions,
extreme weather events can bring about considerable damage. Recent climate events such as
drought, flooding, heat waves and warmer winters have resulted in a wide range of impacts to
the province, including water shortages, forest fires, lower Great Lakes water levels, declines in
agricultural production, power outages and outbreaks of water-borne diseases. These impacts
have had substantial economic and social costs, raising questions about Ontario's vulnerability
to future climate change.40
The degree to which Ontario will be affected by climate change is strongly influenced by its
adaptive capacity – the ability of a system to adjust to climate change, including climate
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variability and extremes, to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities,
or to cope with the consequences.41
The most commonly used indicators of
adaptive capacity are: economic resources;
availability of, and access to, technology,
information and skills; and the degree of
preparedness of infrastructure and
institutions. Based on these factors alone, it
can be inferred that the potential for Ontario
to adapt effectively to climate change is high.
Whether that potential is realized will depend
on individuals, industry, communities,
institutions and governments incorporating
Figure 14: Ontario will see a change in the duration and
climate change, along with all other important intensity of precipitation events
factors, into their decision-making. 42
3.1 Evidence that Our Climate is changing
Across much of Ontario, mean annual temperatures have warmed by 0.5°C - 0.6°C over the past
100 years. Scientists estimate that Ontario could warm by an average of 2 - 5°C in the next 75 to
100 years (see section 7.1 in the Appendix for future climate projections for Ontario). Increases
would likely be greater in the winter than in the summer. In some parts of Ontario, the climate
is highly modified by the influence of the Great Lakes, and it is uncertain what influence the
lakes will have on these projected temperature changes.43 (See
section 7.2 in the Appendix for the historic climate trends for
Ottawa, Ontario).
Warmer temperatures will also have an impact on the number
and intensity of extreme weather events. The term ‘extreme’
usually refers to a departure from the norm. Thus, in terms of
weather, extreme often refers to severe events, such as
hurricanes, tornadoes, ice storms, storm surges, floods and
drought. This also includes episodes of extreme temperatures;
Figure 15: In Ontario, mean
annual temperatures have global climate models suggest that over the next 50 years, heat
warmed by 0.5°C - 0.6°C over the waves will increase in frequency, intensity, and duration in
past 100 years
Ontario.44
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), record extremes in weather and
climate events continue to occur around the world. Over the past few years, Canada has se en
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an unusual number of these severe weather events, with traumatic results, such as the ice
storm in Eastern Ontario and Western Quebec in 1998, extensive flooding in the Saguenay
region in 1996 and southern Manitoba in 1997, record accumulation of snow in Toronto and
southern Ontario in 1999, and continued severe drought in the Prairies. From 1985 to 1999,
380 weather-related natural disasters occurred in Canada and resulted in 240 deaths, $14.3
billion in economic losses, and $3.2 billion in insured losses.45 In Canada, 2010 was the
warmest year on record with the average annual air temperature exceeding the long term
average by 3°C.
Climate change invokes these weather
extremes due to the atmosphere’s
increased ability to store water; in
essence, parts of the hydrologic cycle (the
process by which water vapour rises into
the atmosphere and condenses as
precipitation) speeds up. Warmer
temperatures heat the Earth’s surface,
which leads to faster evaporation and
hence more moisture in the atmosphere.
Increased moisture in the air means more
Figure 16: Over the past few years, Canada has seen an
water vapour will condense as
unusual number of severe weather events, with traumatic precipitation. Therefore, as more heat and
results moisture is put into the atmosphere,
precipitation-driven events, such as storms, floods, hurricanes and tornadoes, will intensify.
With this being said, not all areas will become wetter. Some areas may become parched due to
rapid evaporation of water from soils, lakes and reservoirs. This parching of soil can also lead to
secondary effects, such as the development of unstable winds, tornadoes and other powerful
storms.46
3.2 Impacts
3.2.1 Health
Although global warming may bring some localized benefits, such as fewer winter deaths in
temperate climates and increased food production in certain areas, the overall health effects of
a changing climate are likely to be overwhelmingly negative. Climate change affects the
fundamental requirements for health – clean air, safe drinking water, sufficient food, and
secure shelter.47
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In Ontario, possible climate-related
threats to human health include
increases in severe smog; air-borne
allergens, acid rain, and toxins; altered
distributions of infectious diseases and
carriers; harmful alterations in aquatic
ecology; and increased incidence of
extreme weather events such as floods,
and temperature extremes.48
By 2050, heat-related mortality alone
Figure 17: A warmer climate and longer frost-free seasons may
could double in southern and central further encourage the spread of West Nile virus fever which is
Ontario and air pollution could rise carried by mosquitoes
between 15 and 25 percent. 49 Warmer
temperatures could also increase the range of some parasites, such as insects and t icks,
bringing new infectious diseases to Ontario. A warmer climate and longer frost-free seasons
may further encourage the spread of diseases, such as West Nile virus fever, that are already a
problem in Ontario. Of the total 466 confirmed human cases of West Nile virus fever reported
in Canada in 2003, 89 were Ontario residents.50
Climate change will increase the number of days with temperatures over 32°C which will permit
the formation of more ground-level ozone (the main component in smog) thereby exacerbating
the already serious smog problem in the region. Recent health studies have suggested that
there is no safe level of human exposure to ground-level ozone and particulate matter, and
negative health outcomes are associated with very low levels of exposure, even for healthy
individuals. The Ontario Medical Association estimates that more than 2,060 people in Ontario
die prematurely each year from the effects of air pollution.51
Overall, the health risks to Ontarians may be difficult to assess and can be complicated by level
of wealth, availability of food and water, level of sanitary living conditions, adequate public
health infrastructure, and local environmental factors. 52 Therefore impacts to health due to
climate change will likely vary depending on different populations within the province. The
portion of the population that will be most vulnerable to these health impacts will be the
elderly, the poor, children, and those in poor health.53 The economic impacts of such health
threats remain unknown; however it is clear that climate change will have substantial costs to
the public health sector.54
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3.2.2 Water Quality and Quantity
A warming climate means increased
evaporation from lake surfaces and
evapotranspiration from land surfaces, which in
turn will augment the percentage of
precipitation that is returned to the
atmosphere.55 This will have impacts on water
quantity and quality in Ontario. For example,
climate models for the Great Lakes generally Figure 18: Water levels in the Great Lakes are
expected to decrease by 0.23-2.48 metres within the
suggest decreases in annual stream flow and next century
lake levels. Historically, the Great Lakes have
experienced natural water level fluctuations with a range of 1.8 metres between the highs and
lows. These fluctuations are expected to persist as the climate changes, but at lower mean
water levels. While some research suggests increases to Great Lakes water levels56, the
majority of modeled output sees those levels dropping in some cases by up to 1.77 metres by
the end of the century relative to average levels between 1970 and 1999. 57
Also, more frequent and heavy downpours may cause localized flooding, overwhelming current
sewage treatment facilities with increased volumes of storm water.58 When some sewer
systems are overloaded with too much water, it causes untreated sewage water to be
discharged into receiving streams, rivers and lakes. These types of systems are called ‘combined
sewer systems’. These combined sewer overloads will threaten the quality of lake water
resources, especially in shallow bodies of water where pollutants would become more
concentrated.
Higher lake water temperatures would also create a more favourable environment for
microbial and algal blooms, further reducing water quality. This would affect municipalities that
draw water from nearby lakes. For example, water intakes located in relatively shallow water,
such as in Lake St. Clair, may experience increased episodes of supply, odour and taste
problems due to insufficient water depth and increased weed growth and algae
concentrations.59
3.2.3 Infrastructure
Infrastructure is defined as something that serves to shelter and protect the life, health,
psychological and social welfare of all of its inhabitants from the weather elements and
includes houses, hospitals, schools, factories, roads, bridges, communication structures, power
distribution networks, and water structures. Due to the expected increase in extreme weather
events, climate change poses a great threat to existing infrastructure.60
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An example that highlights the vulnerability of
infrastructure is the damage caused by an extreme
rainstorm in Toronto, August 2005. The storm dumped
more than 153mm of rain in a four hour period and
resulted in the collapse of a section of Finch Avenue,
causing damage to two high-pressure gas mains, a
potable water main, as well as telephone, hydro, and
cable service lines; the event caused more than $500
million in damages.61 In order to reduce the amount of
Figure 19: Damage to Finch Avenue in
Toronto after an intense rain storm in 2005 risk to infrastructure under a changing climate and
avoid these types of situations, a review of building
codes, climatic design criteria, and infrastructure standards will need to be done.62
One area of the province that is expected to experience high infrastructure costs is coastal
zones along the Great Lakes. As previously mentioned, fluctuations in water levels in the Great
Lakes would mean numerous problems for coastal zones.63 High water levels may lead to
flooding, causing significant damages to coastal infrastructure and shoreline habitat. Lower
water levels could cause issues with riparian rights and water access for shoreline property
owners. In addition, lakeshore homeowners as well as marina
operators may have to modify their docks to accommodate
retreating shorelines; a task which can be very costly.64 Finally,
some municipalities may have to extend their water intake
pipes to accommodate lower water levels.65
3.2.4 Agriculture
Agriculture ranks as one of the most important economic
activities in Ontario; the province alone contains 14 million
acres of farmland valued at approximately $10 billion
dollars.66,67 Since agriculture is highly weather-dependent,
climate change is high on the list of concerns for the industry.68
A warmer climate could be beneficial for the production of
some crops such as corn, sorghum, soybeans, maize, and some Figure 20: Agriculture is one of the
forage crops, and could lead to the northward extension of most important economic activities
in Ontario
other crops.69
However, climate change could affect the health and yields of some crops in the region.
Production can be harmed by heat stress, pests, ozone, extreme weather events such as rains
that delay planting or harvest, and below-normal precipitation.70 A good example of the drastic
effect climate has on crop production was when a 2001 drought in Ontario resulted in $300
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million in crop production losses. These types of events could occur more frequently in the
future and threaten the agricultural industry even
further.71
3.2.5 Mining
Due to its dependency on the natural
environment, the Canadian mining sector is
particularly vulnerable to the consequences of
climate change.72 Most of the mining-reliant
communities in Ontario are located in the central
region; where there are more than 25 mines
operating including gold, base metal, platinum
group metal mines, as well as major industrial Figure 21: The mining sector is particularly
vulnerable to climate change
mineral operations.73 Mining in Central Ontario
makes a significant contribution to the local and provincial economies. In 2006 it was reported
that mining operations in the Sudbury Basin alone directly employed 6,254 people. 74
Both drought and extreme precipitation impact mining infrastructure. Tailings ponds capped
with water to prevent oxidation and acid mine drainage are at risk of overflowing and releasing
contaminants when heavy rainfall events occur. Slope stability and integrity of engineered
berms are also vulnerable to extreme precipitation. As well, increased temperatures will lead to
increased evaporation from tailings ponds, potentially exposing raw tailings to subaerial
weathering. Finally, wind erosion of any exposed fine-grained tailings could contribute to the
acidification of the watershed.75
3.2.6 Forestry
Forests cover a substantial portion of Ontario, with
commercial forestry being a large industry in the
northern region. In 2005, the value of exports from
Ontario’s forestry and forestry-related industries was
$8.4 billion, with 84,500 persons employed in the
sector.76 The net impact of climate change on forest
Figure 22: Climate change is expected to
cause more forest fires in Ontario productivity will be influenced by increases in the frost-
free period, growing season temperatures, atmospheric
carbon dioxide concentrations, as well as changes in moisture supply and disturbance regimes.
Longer and warmer growing seasons, as well as enhanced carbon dioxide fertilization, will have
a positive effect on tree growth.77 However, regardless of these potential short-term benefits
climate change is expected to have a negative impact on forests/forestry in the long-term.78
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