FOCUS ON: PARSONS GREEN - FOCUS ON: THE LOWER LEA VALLEY - RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH 2016 - Knight Frank
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH FOCUS ON: PARSONS GREEN 2016 FOCUS ON: THE LOWER LEA VALLEY 2018/19 CONNECTIVITY DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE FORECASTS
FOCUS ON:
THE LOWER LEA VALLEY
East London’s regeneration accelerated in the wake of the
2012 Olympic Games, and was hailed by Mayor Sadiq
Khan for shifting the capital’s centre of gravity to the east.
The Games brought with them upgrades The Lower Lea Valley is well suited for
to local amenity and infrastructure, which new residential development due to its
supported an influx of new residents proximity to London’s main financial
and businesses. Now, population centres in the City of London and Canary
growth in Tower Hamlets and Newham Wharf, its relative value compared
is projected to outpace all other inner to other locations so close to central
London boroughs over the coming London, and its connectivity to the rest
decade, according to the Greater London of the UK and beyond by rail and air
Authority (Fig. 2). (Fig. 5). This has helped underpin strong
Westminster
Wandsworth
7.21%
house price growth in the area over the
Hammersmith
6.91%
Supply and demand
6.05%
FIGURE 1 past decade. Values have risen by 80%
& Fulham
Number of homes bought with Help
4.54%
Much of the housing that will support on average, outperforming both the wider
2.70%
to Buy equity loans since scheme
this population growth is planned in the boroughs of Newham and Tower Hamlets
K&C
London
began in 2013
City of
Lower Lea Valley, an area which includes over the sale time (Fig. 4).
Tower Hamlets
450
12.80%
11.30%
10.93%
10.60%
Bromley-by-Bow, Stratford, Bow,
9.37%
9.00%
8.75%
8.75%
Southwark
7.22%
Lewisham
Future growth is likely to be supported
Haringey
Lambeth
Newham
Hackney
Camden
Islington
Poplar and Leamouth, and straddles
by upgrades to infrastructure and public
the boroughs of Tower Hamlets and
Newham. Here, more than sixty projects realm, the emergence of Stratford as a
of 80 private units or more have consent major commercial, retail, education and
or have commenced construction, employment hub, and a handful of very
according to data from Molior (Fig. 3). large residential and commercial projects
Together, they comprise more than that will deliver new amenities.
Newham
20,000 private homes, to be delivered
644
over the coming two decades. Commercial property
The projects will provide much-needed The Lower Lea Valley sits adjacent to
additional housing, which has fallen the City of London and Canary Wharf
TOWER HAMLETS 12.80%
11.30%
10.93%
10.60%
financial districts. Both office markets
9.37%
9.00%
8.75%
8.75%
7.22%
7.21%
6.91%
6.05%
4.54%
short of official projections for housing 2.70%
need in the wider area. There were have proved resilient since the vote
7,204 net additional dwellings delivered to leave the European Union in June
HAMMERSMITH &
CITY OF LONDON
in Tower Hamlets and Newham during 2016, with a number of large companies
WANDSWORTH
Tower Hamlets
WESTMINSTER
the 2016/17 financial year. Annual committing to new office space, and
SOUTHWARK
ISLINGTON
LEWISHAM
HARINGEY
housing need in these boroughs is 8,713,
NEWHAM
investors setting records for office
HACKNEY
LAMBETH
CAMDEN
FULHAM
Source: Knight Frank Research/MHCLG according to MHCLG. investment deals.
K&C
FIGURE 2
Projected population growth, inner London 2018–2028
11.3%
10.9%
10.6%
12.8%
9.4%
9.0%
8.8%
8.8%
7.2%
7.2%
6.9%
6.1%
4.5%
2.7%
CITY OF LONDON
HAMMERSMITH
WANDSWORTH
WESTMINSTER
AND CHELSEA
KENSINGTON
SOUTHWARK
ISLINGTON
LEWISHAM
HARINGEY
HAMLETS
& FULHAM
NEWHAM
HACKNEY
LAMBETH
CAMDEN
TOWER
Source: Knight Frank Research / GLA
2 Please refer to the important notice at the end of this reportLOWER LEA VALLEY
SELECTED MAJOR PROJECTS
RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENTS
THE LOWER LEA VALLEY 2018/19 RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH SIZE OF DOTS
2466 83 CORRESPOND
INCLUDES BUILD
TOTO RENT
NUMBER
OF PRIVATE UNITS
FIGURE 3
RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENTS
WHAT’S IN THE PIPELINE? STRATFORD SIZE OF DOTS RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENTS SELECTED MAJOR PROJECTS
BOW 2466 83 CORRESPOND
Residential and commercial projects to be delivered 2018–2038. BROMLEY-BY-BOW
TO NUMBER
OF PRIVATE UNITS INCLUDES BUILD TO RENT LOWER LEA VALLEY
POPLAR INCLUDES BUILD TO RENT
EAST HAM
SELECTED MAJOR PROJECTS
WANSTEAD
SELECTED MAJOR FLATS
PROJECTS
HERE EAST LOWER LEA VALLEY SIZE OF DOTS
HACKNEY DOWNS
Three buildings totalling 1.2 million sq ft LEE VALLEY VELOPARK INTERNATIONAL 2466 83 CORRESPOND
of commercial and retail space created QUARTER LONDON TO NUMBER
MANOR PARK
OF PRIVATE UNITS
from the press and broadcast centres WANSTEAD PARK
A joint venture between Lendlease STRATFORD
of the Olympic Games. The site is home
and London and Continental Railways BOW
to businesses from the technology,
media and education sectors ranging
STRATFORD a few minutes-walk
FOREST GATE
from
SIZEStratford’s
OF DOTS WOODGRANGE PARK
BROMLEY-BY-BOW
HACKNEY DOWNS
QUEEN ELIZABETH stations that will include
SIZE4 OF
million
DOTSsq ft
CORRESPOND
from established names to startups. OLYMPIC PARK 2466 83
of commercial space, TO 333 new homes,
NUMBER
CORRESPOND POPLAR
LOWER LEA VALLEY
Tenants include BT Sport, Loughborough HACKNEY CENTRAL 2466 83 OF
STRATFORD 52,000 sq ft of shops andPRIVATE
TO restaurants.
NUMBER UNITS
University, and a startup incubator Plexal. MARYLAND
BOW OF PRIVATE UNITS
STRATFORD INTERNATIONAL
BROMLEY-BY-BOW
HACKNEY WICK WESTFIELD STRATFORD CITY
KINGSLAND POPLAR
LONDON FIELDS LIDO
LOWER LEA VALLEY
LOWER LEA VALLEY
LONDON FIELDS STRATFORD WATERFRONT
STRATFORD
WEST HAM PARK STRATFORD
This will bring together University College
HACKNEY WICK AND
HAGGERSTON SOUTH HACKNEY London, London College BOWof Fashion, EAST HAM
FISH ISLAND
LONDON STADIUM
WEST HAM Victoria and Albert Museum and a new
BROMLEY-BY-BOW
VICTORIA PARK Sadler’s Wells East 550-seat theatre. UAL
Hackney Wick has been central to the POPLAR
will integrate six sites onto one campus
emergence of the creative industries in UPTON PARK
accommodating 6,500 students, while
east London and is particularly popular STRATFORD
UCL will create a new campus providing
with SMEs. There are 600 studios in PUDDING MILL LANE
BOW STRATFORD
multi-disciplinary research, teaching and
the area alongside the award winning
HAGGERSTON PARK ABBEY ROAD BOW innovation in areas such as robotics,
Yard Theatre and Hackney WickED BROMLEY-BY-BOW
CAMBRIDGE HEATH smart cities, culture and conservation for
summer arts festival. New studios BROMLEY-BY-BOW
PLAISTOW POPLAR around 4,000 students.
HOXTON
and workspace are being developed BOW POPLAR
alongside the wider 5,500 home V&A MUSEUM OF CHILDHOOD
regeneration of Hackney Wick. WEST HAM
BETHNAL GREEN BETHNAL GREEN BOW ROAD
MEMORIAL RECREATION
GROUND
QUEEN MARY BROMLEY-BY-BOW ROAD
UNIVERSITY MILE END
BETHNAL GREEN OF LONDON
STEPHENSON STREET
SHOREDITCH HIGH ST LONDON CITY ISLAND
NEWHAM UNIVERSITY HOSPITAL
A new neighbourhood on the site of
BRICK LANE MARKET Currently under construction,
a former Parcelforce depot. Berkeley
Ecoworld Ballymore’s London City
Group’s Stephenson Street site will
OLD SPITALFIELDS MARKET MILE END LEISURE Island includes more than 1,500
include almost 2,500 private homes, a 4.5 CENTRE & STADIUM
WHITECHAPEL private homes and 20,000 square
acre public park, new shops, cafes and
LIVERPOOL ST meters of office space on a peninsular
restaurants and improved infrastructure.
WHITECHAPEL neighbouring Canary Wharf. The project
Berkeley also controls the neighbouring
GALLERY
will include the English National Ballet’s
Gasholders site, which could support an
new home and a new footbridge
additional circa 2,000 homes.
ALDGATE EAST CANNING TOWN connecting residents to the Elizabeth
WHITECHAPEL Line and DLR transport links.
POPLAR CANNING TOWN
FENCHURCH ST LIMEHOUSE
TOWER HILL SHADWELL
WESTFERRY EAST INDIA PRINCE REGENT
ROYAL VICTORIA
ROYAL ALBERT
TOWER OF EXCEL LONDON
MUSEUM OF LONDON DOCKLANDS POPLAR Source: Knight Frank Research/Molior
LONDON
BILLINGSGATE MARKET
CANARY WHARF LONDON CITY AIRPORT
3 4THE LOWER LEA VALLEY 2018/19 RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH
As supply has dwindled in these markets, Together, these projects make up the East
FIGURE 4
particularly for offices offering space of Bank, a new cultural neighbourhood akin
House price performance in the
more than 100,000 square feet, companies to the South Bank, which will bring an Lower Lea Valley compared
have become more footloose and price additional 1.5 million visitors to Stratford Indexed 100 = September 2008
conscious. As a result, Stratford has each year.
190
become a viable option for some firms
The City of London fringe has also Lower Lea Valley
hunting for new space. HMRC, for example, benefitted from increased willingness from 180 Newham
Tower Hamlets
has chosen Stratford for its 300,000 sq occupiers to look beyond traditional, core 170
ft new London hub and TFL, the FCA locations. Technology companies began
and Cancer Research have each taken to proliferate on the fringes of the City of 160
floorspace of more than 100,000 sq ft. London in the years following the global 150
Companies were actively searching for financial crisis and the area is now a hub
a cumulative 1.6 million square feet of for both startups and global firms. In 140
office space in Docklands, Stratford and Aldgate and Whitechapel, technology 130
surrounding areas during Autumn 2018, companies have leased more than 700,000
according to Knight Frank research. sq ft of office space since 2015, according 120
The number of commercial developments to Knight Frank data. 110
has increased as a result, with several Expedia, Groupon and Uber are among 100
very large projects on or adjacent to the the companies that have taken space
90
Olympic Park (Fig. 3). To the east of the here since 2015.
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Park, International Quarter London will
include 4 million square feet of commercial
Connectivity Source: Land Registry / Knight Frank Research
space. Less than 15 minutes walk away,
Here East comprises 1.2 million square feet The Lower Lea Valley is connected to
of commercial and retail space in what was London, the rest of the UK and mainland
the Press and Broadcast Centre during Europe by a plethora of tube lines, high
speed rail and a nearby airport at
the 2012 games. Closer to the stadium,
London City.
Stratford Waterfront will form the centre
of a new cultural and education hub that The areas’ main stations at Stratford,
brings together University College London, West Ham and Bromley-by-Bow enable
London College of Fashion, Victoria and residents to travel to work in the City of
Albert Museum and Sadler’s Wells theatre. London or Canary Wharf in 10–15 minutes,
FIGURE 5
Connectivity: London and beyond
CANARY BOND LIVERPOOL LONDON CITY HEATHROW
WHARF STREET STREET AIRPORT AIRPORT
9 12 21 18 57
BROMLEY-BY-BOW TO... MINS MINS MINS MINS MINS
(TUBE) (TUBE) (TUBE) (TUBE, DLR) (TUBE, HEATHROW EXPRESS)
WEST HAM TO... 6 13 22 10 54
MINS MINS MINS MINS MINS
(TUBE) (TUBE) (TUBE) (DLR) (TUBE, HEATHROW EXPRESS)
STRATFORD TO... 9 9 21 14 54
MINS MINS MINS MINS MINS
(CURRENT) (TUBE) (TUBE) (TUBE) (DLR) (TUBE, HEATHROW EXPRESS)
STRATFORD TO... 8 7 15 14 48
(FROM 2019) MINS MINS MINS MINS MINS
(ELIZABETH LINE) (ELIZABETH LINE) (ELIZABETH LINE) ( DLR) (ELIZABETH LINE)
Source: TFL
5to go shopping on Bond Street in about 20 Outlook “EAST LONDON,
minutes, or be at London City Airport for a
flight in 10–20 minutes (Fig. 5). East London, particularly along the River PARTICULARLY ALONG
Lea and into the Olympic Park, is set
High speed trains run from Stratford to provide a significant proportion of
THE RIVER LEA AND INTO
International Station to St Pancras London’s new housing over the coming THE OLYMPIC PARK, IS
International in seven minutes, where
travellers can connect to Eurostar services
decade and beyond. The scope of SET TO PROVIDE A
residential development taking place in
to mainland Europe. High speed trains also the Lower Lea Valley, alongside upgrades
SIGNIFICANT PROPORTION
run to Kent, known as the Garden of to infrastructure, is likely to attract more OF LONDON’S NEW
England, as far as Ashford International,
which takes 30 minutes.
amenity, which historically has helped HOUSING OVER THE COMING
underpin house prices.
DECADE AND BEYOND.”
Connectivity in the Lower Lea Valley, The average price of existing homes in the
will be further augmented from 2019, wider London market are forecast to climb
Patrick Gower, Residential Research
when the Elizabeth Line, formally known by 2.5% in 2019, with cumulative growth of
patrick.gower@knightfrank.com
as Crossrail, opens at Stratford, cutting 13.1% by 2022, according to Knight Frank
journey times to destinations including data (Fig. 6). Meanwhile, rents are forecast
Heathrow, which will take 48 minutes, to climb by 13% by 2022. However,
Bond Street, which will take 15 minutes, there is room for outperformance in areas
and Liverpool Street, which will be cut to that are undergoing large-scale changes
seven minutes. through regeneration and development.
FIGURE 6
2018–2022 Forecasts, May 2018
LONDON SALES LONDON RENTS
2018-2022
13.1%
4.0% 3.5%
3.5% 3.0%
2.5% 2.0% 3.0% 2.5%
-0.5% 1.5%
2018-2022
13.0%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Source: Knight Frank Research
RECENT MARKET-LEADING RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS Knight Frank Research provides strategic
advice, consultancy services and forecasting
to a wide range of clients worldwide including
RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH
RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH
The global perspective on prime property and investment
CROSSRAIL
LONDON developers, investors, funding organisations,
ANALYSING PROPERTY MARKET PERFORMANCE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE ELIZABETH LINE 2017
HOTSPOTS
RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
OPPORTUNITY AREAS 2018
corporate institutions and the public sector.
All our clients recognise the need for expert
THE WEALTH REPORT 2018
independent advice customised to their
specific needs.
2018
12th Edition
HOW HAVE PRICES LOOKING TO THE FUTURE: DEVELOPMENT
PERFORMED? CROSSRAIL 2 PIPELINE AREAS TO WATCH PRICE FORECASTS MARKET UPDATE
The Wealth Report Crossrail – 2017 UK Housebuilding London Development
– 2018 Report – 2018 Hotspots 2018
Get in touch
Knight Frank Research Reports are available at KnightFrank.com/Research If you’re thinking of buying or selling,
or would just like some property
Important Notice advice, please do get in touch.
© Knight Frank LLP 2018 – This report is published for general information only and not to be relied upon in any way.
Although high standards have been used in the preparation of the information, analysis, views and projections presented in
this report, no responsibility or liability whatsoever can be accepted by Knight Frank LLP for any loss or damage resultant Raul Cimesa
from any use of, reliance on or reference to the contents of this document. As a general report, this material does not
necessarily represent the view of Knight Frank LLP in relation to particular properties or projects. Reproduction of this report +44 20 7718 5227
in whole or in part is not allowed without prior written approval of Knight Frank LLP to the form and content within which raul.cimesa@knightfrank.com
it appears. Knight Frank LLP is a limited liability partnership registered in England with registered number OC305934. Our
registered office is 55 Baker Street, London, W1U 8AN, where you may look at a list of members’ names.You can also read
