FEAR AND HOPE: WALES BELONGING IN TODAY'S WALES IDENTITY, POLITICS
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FEAR AND HOPE: WALES
IDENTITY, POLITICS AND
BELONGING IN TODAY’S WALES
HOPE not hate Charitable Trust
PO Box 61383, London, N19 9ER
Telephone 020 7952 1184
Email: office@hopenothate.org.uk
http://charity.hopenothate.org.uk
Registered office: Suite 1, 3rd Floor,
11-12 St. James’s Square, London SW1Y 4LB
WELSH FEAR AND HOPE
CONTENTS
Introduction4
Overview6
THE AUTHORS
Introducing the welsh tribes8
How the pandemic changed Wales16
ROSIE CARTER
Identity22 Rosie is senior
policy officer at
Social attitudes25 HOPE not hate. She
conducts research on
Conspiracy and misinformation32 community relations,
public attitudes,
The far right in Wales 34 identity and political
polarisation. She is a
Politics and Power36 fellow of the Churchill
Memorial Trust where her research focused
A move to independence?39 on immigration to isolated towns and she
holds an MSc in Migration Studies from
Cardiff to Llandudno: The role of place42 Oxford University.
Conclusion50 rosie@hopenothate.org.uk
CHRIS CLARKE
Chris is a policy
researcher at HOPE
not hate Charitable
Trust. He has
previously been
involved in a number
of community and
research projects, and
has worked with local
government and in the third sector – across
themes relating to migration, cohesion, local
engagement, place identity and social values.
August 2021 | 3
WELSH FEAR AND HOPE FOREWORD SHAVANAH TAJ, GENERAL SECRETARY OF WALES TUC There is a strong tendency in Wales – and particularly within civil society and political circles – to be complacent and self-congratulatory in our ideas about who we are as a nation and the shared values that it is claimed we all hold. This report is a vital corrective to that tendency. It deserves to be studied closely and its findings should spur a much more nuanced conversation about Welsh social attitudes, the factors influencing those attitudes, and the impact on our community cohesion. Welsh Fear and Hope also contains important insights into how people in Wales view their economic prospects as we seek to recover from union movement must play in tackling these the Covid crisis. The concerns expressed about challenges - not least in driving forward the Fair the threat of redundancy, the lack of prospects Work agenda in Wales to secure an economic for future generations, and the persistently high recovery that empowers workers and rebalances rates of poverty echo conclusions from the Wales power in people’s working lives. This can serve a TUC’s own research. crucial purpose in improving material conditions The uncomfortable reality is that our economic and reducing the scope for people’s economic model in Wales was broken prior to the current frustrations to be exploited. crisis. Over the last decade we have seen a sharp But if we’re going to build the sort of communities increase in insecure work as well as major growth that more closely resemble the idealised image of in-work poverty. Households with at least one of a high-trust, welcoming sanctuary of safety adult in paid work now make up over half of all and hope - a cohesive Wales - than we must those in poverty – undermining the idea of work start having more honest and frank conversations as a guaranteed route to some form of economic about people’s existing attitudes. This report security. provides an essential foundation for those It is therefore unsurprising to see poverty unpacked and uncomfortable conversations. identified here as a major concern by two thirds of the population. And, as Hope Not Hate recognise, the frustrations created by a failing economy can create fertile conditions for the growth of support for the divisive campaigns of the populist right. There are real warning signs in this report. For example, despite the fact that BME unemployment has risen three times as fast as white unemployment during the Covid crisis, almost half of the adult population in Wales believe that discrimination against white people is as big a problem as discrimination against non- white people. It is hard to maintain a healthy civic culture when there is such a detachment from objective reality. As the General Secretary of the Wales TUC, I am conscious of the role that the trade 4 | August 2021
WELSH FEAR AND HOPE
OVERVIEW
1. The uneven impact of the pandemic has There is widespread concern among the Welsh
rewritten people’s relationship with the Senedd, population about poverty (65% say they are
and with Westminster concerned), a lack of opportunities for children
The vaccine effect has seen a bounce in Welsh growing up today (69%) and the decline of the high
people’s optimism for the future, and the vast street (68%). And many fear that these issues could
majority are happy with how Welsh government get worse, as the economic impact of coronavirus
have handled the pandemic, but the economic hit threatens many jobs. Half the Welsh population
of the coronavirus outbreak has already hit many say that they are concerned they or someone in
people hard, and there is a lot of fear for how this their family may lose their job as a result of the
will play out in the coming months. pandemic.
While many who have lost jobs, seen their hours 5. A concentration of social and economic
dropped, or gotten into debt during the pandemic challenges in Welsh towns are undermining
have maintained faith in political leaders, for others community resilience
resentment and anger are brewing, and eating away Towns in Wales have been at the forefront of many
at trust. of the economic challenges faced by the UK over
2. Welsh independence remains a minority view, the past decades, and have been more exposed
but there is a clear appetite for a rebalance of than most.
power for the nation Looking at social attitudes across Welsh towns, we
Overall, there is a consensus that Wales and the can see some quite distinct trends. These relate
other devolved nations lose out to England (53% to small and fairly isolated communities, with little
agree), and that the issues and concerns of people ethnic diversity or population flux and significant
living in the small towns and rural areas of Wales deprivation, particularly when it comes to jobs and
are often ignored in favour of people in big cities economic opportunities. These challenges can feed
(63%). But only 35% think that politicians in the frustrations and resentments that the far right can
Senedd care about people like them and the same exploit.
proportion feel that Welsh people’s views are well 6. New Tribes
represented by the Westminster government.
While our Fear and Hope reports have previously
3. Pockets of hostility and patterns of social looked at attitudes across England, this report has
conservatism contradict beliefs of Wales as a developed a series of tribes specific for Wales.
welcoming place These ten groups offer a picture of social attitudes
Looking at social attitudes across Wales, there across Wales by splitting the Welsh population up
is some contradiction between a view of Wales by values, attitudes on key issues, as well as what
as welcoming, open and tolerant and pockets of drives them.
hostility and unease around issues like immigration These ten identity tribes can broadly be placed
and multiculturalism. into three groups. Social liberals, who value
The most popular term used by participants to compassion and openness, are driven by fighting
describe Wales today was “Welcoming”, chosen by social inequality and believe immigration and
a third of all respondents (33%). But 46% say they multiculturalism bring richness to Wales. Social
are worried about the arrival of new immigrants in conservatives, who value security and pride, often
their community and almost half of Welsh people reactive in the face of changes in British society
believe that discrimination against white people and driven by protectionism. And ambivalents, who
has become as big a problem as discrimination share some views of both sides, though are more
against non-white people (48% agreed with likely to feel detached or disinterested.
this statement, 24% disagreed). Opposition While this paints a picture of a divided society in
to immigration emerges across welsh society, Wales, the different drivers and motivations of
including among 18-24s who are less socially liberal each of these groups also shows that polarisation
than the same age cohort for UK as a whole. in Welsh society is not simply groups being drawn
towards two diametrically opposed ‘poles’. Core
4. Poverty and deprivation remain key challenges values, personal circumstance, political allegiance
for communities in Wales, and many fear the and current affairs all intersect to shape how
impact of the coronavirus outbreak will make people see the world around them.
things worse
August 2021 | 5
WELSH FEAR AND HOPE INTRODUCTION HOPE not hate exists to challenge the politics compound existing inequalities, adding to the of hate, and build more resilient communities. economic challenges already worsened by Brexit. Since 2011, we have published our Fear and Hope The Joseph Rowntree Foundation has predicted series of research to better understand the full a “tide of poverty” to hit Wales after coronavirus, spectrum of public attitudes and what drives deepening existing problems4. And the uneven them. This research helps us to better understand geographic spread of these impacts means where far-right and hateful narratives are cutting that isolated towns reliant on already at-risk through, and what can be done to push back, to industries and declining populations could bear overcome division and build unity. the brunt. We have done so by creating segmentations, This context is not just a huge challenge for breaking the population down into groups individuals and families – and as our polling based on their attitudes, values and the issues shows half the Welsh population are concerned that motivate them, seeing how these change that they or someone in their family may lose over time, and by mapping this data to small their job as a result of the pandemic. But it will geographic units of around 300 households. also have a substantial impact on communities, Our fear and hope research has largely focused on with the potential to damage social cohesion. English identity, though in the current context we HOPE not hate research has consistently felt it was important to apply our Fear and Hope shown that the balance of social and cultural model to Wales, to create a new segmentation attitudes are often tipped by worsening economic and look at questions of Welsh identity, conditions, as the very real resentments and relationships with the Senedd and Westinster, as frustrations that people feel about their own lives well as key cultural and political questions and are exploited by those who seek to divide. how any economic impact might affect these. This report highlights that although most people Our research took place in the midst of a in Wales are open, tolerant and welcoming, there pandemic that has hugely impacted Wales and is a sizeable proportion of the Welsh population redrawn the relationship between Welsh people who are susceptible to swing towards populist and the Senedd, where Welsh government has right support or far-right sympathies if conditions been tasked with enforcing the most onerous are stressed. restrictions on people in peacetime history. Our In developing our new tribes, we identify polling was also carried out right before the two groups who already hold hostile and Senedd elections, where Labour held a majority reactive attitudes toward multiculturalism and in stark contrast to their rapidly falling vote share immigration, but also two identity tribes who in both England and Scotland. In the shadow of could fall into these hostile groups – one more Brexit, questions of Welsh independence have likely to harden their reactive views through risen sharply on the agenda, as promises of a ‘culture war’ framing, and one whose own second referendum in Scotland threaten the insecurity, pessimism and economic precarity breakup of the union. opens them up to populist scapegoating. Moreover, our research looks at Wales at a time While this paints a picture of a divided society where the economic impact of coronavirus is in Wales, there is also a lot of hope. The vast yet to take full force. At present, restrictions are majority of Welsh people celebrate diversity costing the Welsh economy an estimated £10m a and community, and are open to difference and week1, and the claimant count rate in Wales – the change. But we find some contradiction between number of people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance a view of Wales as welcoming, open and tolerant or Universal Credit – rose 108%, from 58,600 in and pockets of hostility and unease around issues March 2020 to 121,800 in August 2020, surpassing like immigration and multiculturalism. While the levels reached after the 2007/08 global the most popular term used by participants to financial crisis2. And the Welsh economy was in describe Wales today was “Welcoming”, around decline before the pandemic hit3. half of Welsh people are worried about the The long-term impacts of the pandemic are prospect of new immigrants arriving in their yet to be seen, but it is clear that any loss will community and almost half of Welsh people 6 | August 2021
WELSH FEAR AND HOPE
believe that discrimination against white people
has become as big a problem as discrimination
against non-white people. METHODOLOGY
We hope that this study is a useful contribution This survey was conducted using an online
to all those looking to build hope in communities interview administered by Focaldata.
across Wales. In an increasingly complex and Focaldata collected data from a representative
uncertain world, understanding the society around sample of 1,043 respondents in Wales between
us will massively help our ability to engage in it. 27 March and 2 April 2021 using its proprietary
data collection platform Focaldata Core, which
plugs into a global network of panels and
uses machine learning to automatically detect
and screen out inconsistent and disengaged
respondents. Users fill out the surveys in
real-time across mobile, desktop, and tablet
devices on the Focaldata platform.
The data was weighted to be representative
of the Wales population. Focaldata contacted
members of the panel that match the
demographic profiles of the country, in
particular age, gender, and region. It then
weighted the raw data to match the known
population of Wales.
The segmentation of respondents was
developed around attitudes to political actors,
immigration, and conspiracy theories. In total,
29 questions were selected for clustering use
based around their content, and their ability
to be cast to an ordinal scale of 1-5. K-means
clustering was used to partition the data into
the different clusters.
HOPENOTHATE.ORG.UK/FEAR-HOPE-REPORTS/
August 2021 | 7
WELSH FEAR AND HOPE
INTRODUCING THE WELSH TRIBES
When we published our first Fear and HOPE
report in 2011, we found that a traditional left-
right, class based political axis was failing to
FEAR AND HOPE
explain peoples’ values, attitudes and voting Since 2011, HOPE not hate have published
behaviour. We found that attitudes in relation their Fear and Hope series of research to
to culture, identity and nation were formed better understand the full spectrum of public
on the basis of a complex interplay of class, attitudes and what drives them in order to
personal experience, life circumstance, and media better understand where far-right and hateful
consumption. narratives are cutting through, and what can
be done to push back, to overcome division
We worked with the polling experts Populus to and build unity.
develop a richer framework to better understand
these issues. We split the population into six We have done so by creating segmentations,
‘identity tribes’. The two groups most open to breaking the population down into groups
immigration and supportive of multiculturalism, based on their attitudes, values and the issues
Confident multiculturalists (22% of the that motivate them, seeing how these change
population) and Mainstream Liberals (16%), while over time, and by mapping this data to small
the two most hostile were Active Enmity (7%) geographic units of around 300 households
and Latent Hostiles (13%). Among the two groups called lower super output areas.
in the middle, the Culturally Concerned (16%),
were slightly older, more affluent voters who attacks in the UK had a profound impact on
have cultural concerns around immigration and attitudes to race and faith.
integration. Immigrant ambivalents (26%), were The 2016 referendum is the event that had the
less concerned about cultural issues but worried most profound impact on identity politics and
about further immigration because of their social divisions. Of course, those who voted Leave
economic anxieties. and Remain were in no way homogenous groups,
These tribes were not static entities, and over but the 2016 referendum was unique in offering
time, we saw a shift in attitudes, with the share two clear cut camps where two very different
of the English population belonging to the two visions of the UK clashed. Brexit continues to
liberal ‘tribes’ growing from 24% to 39% in 2017. motivate some, while for others their concerns
Over this period, we conducted four sets of Fear have diminished over time.
and HOPE polling and saw the middle ground Now, the coronavirus pandemic and its looming
shrink, while the proportion of the population economic fallout are sure to draw new lines
identified in the two hostile ‘tribes’ remained across the these shifting tribes. An uneven
constant. We saw growing polarisation and in recovery looks inevitable, and the impacts of
particular, a hardening of attitudes towards growing inequality are sure to be borne out
Muslims in Britain. through people’s hopes and fears.
Major events and political changes all contributed While our Fear and Hope reports have previously
to a shift in how people saw identity issues. In looked at attitudes across England or Great
2011, while people were still feeling the effects Britain, this report has developed a series of
of the 2008 recession, immigration was being tribes specific for Wales. These ten groups offer
increasingly politicised as a politics of culture, a picture of social attitudes across Wales by
identity and nation. The decline of the BNP saw splitting the Welsh population up by core values
the growth of the EDL and UKIP, who attempted and attitudes on key social and political issues, as
to capture this appetite. By 2016, people were well as by what drives them.
feeling more positive about a range of identity
issues. At the same time, UKIP had surged to
prominence, while the rise of ISIS and terror THE TRIBES
incidents in Woolwich, Paris and elsewhere kept These ten groups can broadly be placed into three
Islamist extremism in the headlines. In our 2017 camps. Social liberals, who value compassion and
report, we found that the series of Islamist terror openness, are driven by fighting social inequality
8 | August 2021
WELSH FEAR AND HOPE
and believe immigration and multiculturalism local level. Another is politically detached, and
bring richness to Wales. Social conservatives, who uncertain on many key issues that divide the rest
value security and pride, often reactive in the face of the population, while a third group is generally
of changes in British society, and are driven by indifferent but favours strong-man politics and
protectionism. And ambivalents, who share some leans towards the Conservative party. This tribe,
views of both sides, though are more likely to who although not motivated on core political
feel detached or disinterested about political and issues, have reactive tendencies around ‘culture
social issues. war’ identity issues, such as feeling feminism
But there are key issues or drivers which holds men back.
differentiate these groups; it is not a clear Among the more socially conservative groups,
cut spectrum of ‘liberal openness’ to ‘hostile uneasy pessimists are primarily moved by their
conservatism’. own economic insecurity, as their strong sense of
Among the three liberal groups, one is actively decline feeds resentment and hostility towards
outspoken in their beliefs, and their values of change and growing diversity. The other two
inclusion and equity define who they are. hostile groups are less likely to be graduates
Though they are more likely to be graduates and and are more motivated by cultural issues,
are more likely to feel economically precarious, sharing hostile attitudes around race, religion and
perhaps as this group is younger. Of the other migration, with one group holding slightly softer
two liberal groups, one is more secure, and as views than the other.
ardent Remainers, are highly motivated by Brexit While this paints a picture of a divided society
and concerned about the future, while the other in Wales, the different drivers and motivations
is less concerned by Brexit with a sunny outlook of each of these groups also shows that
on life. polarisation in Welsh society is not simply groups
Among the ‘middle ground’ groups, one shares being drawn towards two diametrically opposed
many values with the socially liberal tribes, but ‘poles’. Core values, personal circumstance,
is more ambivalent. For example, while they political allegiance and current affairs all
see immigration as a benefit to Wales, they intersect to shape how people see the world
have some concerns about integration at the around them.
The tribes as a percentage of the population
16% 8%
10%
18%
8%
10%
12%
5%
6%
4%
Active progressive Concerned liberal Liberal optimist Soft liberal
Detatched ambivalent Indifferent conservative Reactive Ambivalent
Uneasy pessimist Latent hostile Hostile pessimist
August 2021 | 9
WELSH FEAR AND HOPE
ACTIVE PROGRESSIVES (4%)
The most socially liberal of all the tribes, this to say they are European (15%) as British (16%).
group is defined by their values and are driven Around half want to see Wales become an
by social causes such as inequality. Poverty independent nation within five years, the highest
and inequality (43%) was seen to be the most of all the groups.
important issue facing Wales by this group. Demographically, this group contains slightly more
Most likely to be graduates (44%), this is women than men and lean younger, with 13%
an actively anti-Tory group (just 2% voted under 25 and 24% falling in the 25-34 age group.
Conservative in the 2019 GE), and the biggest Many have felt the economic impacts of the
Labour supporting bloc (61% voted Lab in GE pandemic; they are among the most likely to have
2019). The group also shares a very strong Remain been furloughed, to have worked from home, and
vote (70%). They are most likely to describe to be considering a career change.
themselves as Welsh (54%) and just as likely
98% say that the
9% 13% arrival of immigrants
has changed their
17% local community for
the better
47%
53% 24%
18%
19%
Female Male 18-24 25-34 35-44
45-54 55-64 65+
CONCERNED LIBERALS (5%)
Though they share many progressive values with They hold progressive views on immigration,
the active progressive tribe, this older group act multiculturalism, and as a group with a very
on these in a different way. They have a more strong Remain vote in the 2016 referendum, are
comfortable relationship with the established very concerned about the impact of Brexit on the
political parties, and while they are very concerned UK and Wales. They are more likely to be Labour
about the far right, they oppose all extremes and voters but are not exclusively tied to the party,
voice concerns about the far left too. More likely with some opting for the Conservatives, Plaid
to be graduates (39%), this group contains more Cymru or the Lib Dems. Economically comfortable,
females than males, and is an older group with this group are worried about the future because
the majority over 45 years old (27% are over 65 they see their progressive social values under
with just 3% aged 18-24). threat, rather than because of their own precarity.
Most likely to use
3% the words ‘divided’
and ‘uncertain’ but
17% ‘tolerant’ to describe
27%
Wales today
40%
12%
60%
21%
20%
Female Male 18-24 25-34 35-44
45-54 55-64 65+
10 | August 2021WELSH FEAR AND HOPE
LIBERAL OPTIMISTS (10%)
Economically comfortable and socially liberal, This group generally feel that the political system
this group is the most optimistic of all the Welsh works well for them, and split their vote across
identity tribes. As a self-motivated group, of Labour and the Conservatives.
whom around a third are graduates, they feel that
things are better for themselves and the country
as a whole than ten years ago, and are not too
concerned about the implications of Brexit.
82% say they feel
optimistic about the
17% future
22%
48% 52% 16%
16%
18%
12%
Female Male 18-24 25-34 35-44
45-54 55-64 65+
SOFT LIBERALS (18%)
The most socially progressive of the middle- This group are demographically mixed, though are
ground groups, this tribe are softly socially more likely to be over 65s and graduates. This is
liberal on issues such as immigration and the only group where more describe themselves
multiculturalism, but do have some concerns as British (47%) than Welsh (36%).
about integration. They are optimistic for the
future. Around half are Leave voters, and around
a third support Conservatives.
Only 16% say they are
7% not confident that the
10% 10% Covid-19 vaccine is safe
41% 11% 47%
36%
14%
17%
18-24 25-34 35-44 British Welsh English
45-54 55-64 65+ European Hyphenated British
August 2021 | 11WELSH FEAR AND HOPE
DETACHED AMBIVALENTS (16%)
Generally pragmatic and optimistic, this group elections just over half said they would vote for
hold a high degree of uncertainty on key any of the parties standing.
political issues, and are not motivated by big This group are more likely to be female and
political questions like Brexit. They embrace although one of the younger groups (42% are
multiculturalism, but share some concerns about under 35), almost a third are over 65. Around a
immigration. The biggest pool of non-voters come third are graduates.
from this group; ahead of the recent Senedd
Most likely to
describe Wales today
22% as ‘happy’, ‘safe’ and
27% ‘welcoming’
56% 44%
9% 20%
12%
11%
Female Male 18-24 25-34 35-44
45-54 55-64 65+
INDIFFERENT CONSERVATIVES (8%)
This group were most likely to have voted to leave Nonetheless, they are more likely to support
the EU in 2016 and generally lean Conservative, populist anti-politics views and are very strongly in
though these are not strong allegiances. They are favour of ‘strong-man’ politics (83%).
not in favour of Welsh independence, though this is They are generally optimistic about the future.
largely to maintain the status quo as they are not They are less likely to be graduates, and more
politically motivated and are generally indifferent likely to be male and middle-aged.
about this, as they are about the impact of Brexit.
76% are satisfied with
the way democracy is
15% 12% working in the UK
41% 11%
24%
59%
21%
17%
Female Male 18-24 25-34 35-44
45-54 55-64 65+
12 | August 2021WELSH FEAR AND HOPE
REACTIVE AMBIVALENTS (10%)
Though largely politically ambivalent and Most feel that the political system works
generally not motivated by cultural issues, for them, and their vote splits across the
pockets of hostility towards migrants and two main political parties, but they are also
Muslims emerge in this group. Many voice fragility more willing to believe political violence is
around identity issues, with a majority believing acceptable than most. Generally optimistic,
that feminism has ‘gone too far’ and holds men this group is more likely to have voted Leave
back, and a majority thinking that discrimination in the 2016 referendum and is a majority
against white people is worse than that against male, non-graduate and older group (36% are
non-white people. over 65).
63% believe that
8% feminism has gone too far
and makes it harder for
15% men to succeed
36%
43%
57%
14%
17% 9%
Female Male 18-24 25-34 35-44
45-54 55-64 65+
UNEASY PESSIMISTS (8%)
With a strong Welsh identity (62%), many in this think that politicians listen to them, and don’t
group are compassionate; they care about divisions feel that the political system serves people like
in society, homelessness and the environment, but them well.
equally, many hold anti-immigrant, Islamophobic More likely to vote Labour than Conservative,
attitudes, and voice concerns about negative this group also contains a big chunk of non-
impacts of immigration locally. voters. They are less likely to be degree educated,
This is closely linked to a strong sense of decline; more likely to be female than male, and most
none feel that things are better now than ten likely to be middle aged (35-54). Although about
years ago for themselves and their family (89% a third voted Leave in 2016 (and 63% Remain),
say things are worse), but most are hopeful that this group are pessimistic about the impact of
things will get better in the future. They don’t Brexit for Wales.
61% agree that
11% discrimination against
17% white people has become
as big a problem as
17% discrimination against
54% 46% non-white people
19%
13%
23%
Female Male 18-24 25-34 35-44
45-54 55-64 65+
August 2021 | 13WELSH FEAR AND HOPE
LATENT HOSTILES (12%)
Extremely economically anxious but optimistic They do not see any benefits of immigration
about Brexit, this group feel that things improved and are likely to have a better opinion of far-
for them over the last ten years but they have right than far-left activists. They are conservative
been hit hard by the pandemic. Around a third in their social attitudes, concerned about
have applied for universal credit as a result of the criminality and favour strong-man politics over
coronavirus outbreak and 81% fear that they or liberal democracy. Demographically, this group
someone in their family will lose their job over the is mixed, although they are the least likely to
next year. be graduates.
69% say you can’t
3% be proud of your
6% national identity
22% without being
14%
called racist
43%
57%
21%
34%
Female Male 18-24 25-34 35-44
45-54 55-64 65+
HOSTILE PESSIMISTS (6%)
The most pessimistic of all the groups, this against white people is a bigger problem than
tribe feel that things have become worse for against non-white people.
themselves and the country as a whole, and do An older and majority male group, most are
not share any optimism that things will get better. non-graduates, and the vast majority are over 45.
They hold hostile views around immigration and
multiculturalism and believe that discrimination
81% disagree that
9% politicians listen to
17% people like them
10%
37%
17%
63% 20%
27%
Female Male 18-24 25-34 35-44
45-54 55-64 65+
14 | August 2021WELSH FEAR AND HOPE August 2021 | 15
WELSH FEAR AND HOPE
HOW THE PANDEMIC CHANGED WALES
The coronavirus outbreak has had a profound into their savings, been furloughed or lost out
impact on Wales, with well over 200,000 cases financially because they’ve had to self isolate. Six
and over 5,500 deaths recorded, the country has in ten under 35s (60%) say they have felt a deep
spent months in lockdown, with tight restrictions sense of loneliness.
in place to keep the vulnerable safe. Women are also considerably more likely to report
The economic impact of the coronavirus having felt negative impacts of the coronavirus
pandemic on Wales has been substantial, outbreak. 26% of female respondents have lost a
with analysis by the Centre for Economics and close friend or relative, compared to 16% of male
Business Research suggesting that a year of respondents, 21% have applied for universal credit
lockdowns has cost the UK economy £251bn, compared to 16% of male respondents, and 21%
with Wales suffering losses larger than their have been furloughed compared to 18% of male
usual contributions to the economy5. And the respondents. More than four out of ten female
impact of the virus has hit some far more than respondents (41%) have dipped into their savings
others, as the pandemic has exacerbated existing while 29% of male respondents have done the
inequalities, a trend that is likely to continue as same. Almost a third (27%) have fallen into debt,
Wales moves towards recovery. while 21% of male respondents have, and almost
half (47%) have felt a deep sense of loneliness,
UK Treasury data from March 2021 showed that
compared with 28% of male respondents.
at the end of 2020 there were 23,000 more
people unemployed and seeking work than in There are also notable differences across
2019, and that just 1% of jobs in high-paying the tribes in how each has been impacted
office work had been furloughed compared with throughout the pandemic. For example, the active
78% of those in low-paid hospitality work. 22% of progressives group are far more likely to say that
low-income households had saved money, while they have been furloughed (31%), lost their job
42% of high income households had6. These (25%), struggled to pay rent (37%) or had their
inequalities have impacted women, young people hours reduced (36%) – though they are less likely
and BME communities most. to report having used a foodbank (10%) than all
but the concerned liberal and liberal optimist
Our polling highlights the scale of the impact.
groups. In part this reflects the younger makeup
Overall, 12% of Welsh people report having had
of the active progressive group, but also speaks to
coronavirus, with twice as many (21%) having
their anger towards the Conservative Government
lost a close friend or relative to the virus. Many
and their concerns for the future.
have struggled financially, as one in five say they
have applied for universal credit (19%), been
furloughed (19%), had their hours reduced (21%), A CHANGING RELATIONSHIP WITH THE SENEDD
or lost out financially because they’ve had to The pandemic has marked a distinct change in
self isolate (22%). 35% report dipping into their Welsh people’s relationship with the Senedd.
savings while a quarter have gotten into debt Health is an issue devolved to Welsh Government,
(24%). Many have struggled to afford basic living and as such lockdown rules came directly from
costs including housing (19% have struggled the Senedd, not Westminster. Regular briefings
to pay rent) while more than one in ten (13%) from First Minister Mark Drakeford not only raised
report having used a foodbank as a result of the the profile of Welsh government, with polling
pandemic. Staggeringly, 14% say they have lost showing a marked increase in people’s knowledge
their job as a result of coronavirus, with a third of the First Minister since 2019, when around
(30%) considering a career change. Graduates half of voters could give no opinion of the first
are most likely to be looking at changing jobs minister7, but also helped to build trust with
or sectors (36% of graduates have considered a voters, while distancing Welsh politicians from
career change; 27% of non-grads say the same). Boris Johnson’s government.
The disproportionate economic impact of the Indeed, our polling finds that the majority of
coronavirus outbreak on young people in Wales in people (65%) feel that the Welsh Government
stark, with under 35s considerably more likely to has done a good job of managing the coronavirus
have lost hours at work, gotten into debt, dipped outbreak, including a majority of all those who
16 | August 2021WELSH FEAR AND HOPE
As a consequence of the coronavirus outbreak I have...
Had Coronavirus
Lost a close
friend or relative
to coronavirus
Lost your job
Lost out finan-
cially because
you’ve had to
self-isolate
Applied for
Universal Credit
Been furloughed
Had your hours
reduced
Had to work
from home
Dipped into your
savings
Struggled to pay
your rent
Struggled to pay
your mortgage
Got into debt
Used a food
bank
Felt a deep
sense of
loneliness
Felt more
connected to
your community
Considered a
career change
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Total 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
August 2021 | 17WELSH FEAR AND HOPE
intended to vote Labour (80%), Plaid (74%) and or worse for Britain, Wales and their own families
Conservative (58%) in the Senedd elections. now than they were ten years ago, and when
In contrast, views of the Westminster government asked to project how things will be in ten years’
are more cynical, with only 30% of respondents time. Half say things are worse for Britain as a
overall feeling that the current Conservative whole, while 43% say the same for Wales and
government will improve their lives; 51% say they 41% say the same about themselves and their
will not. family. But fewer than a third say that things will
be worse for Britain (31%) and Wales (29%) in ten
The Senedd election results largely reflected the years’ time. And just a quarter think things will be
revived popularity of Drakeford, as a strong result worse for themselves and their family in ten years’
from Labour pulled in Leave and Conservative time (25%), with more than a third saying they
voters who felt Drakeford had done a good job of expect things to be better (34%).
steering Wales through the pandemic8. Our polling
shows that the majority of those who voted Young people are most optimistic, reflecting the
Conservative in the 2019 general election (57%) impact of the pandemic on their lives – 51% of 18-
and Leave in the 2016 referendum (63%) felt that 24s say things will be better for themselves in ten
Welsh Government had done a good job. years’ time, just 17% say things will be worse and
21% say about the same.
But this revived optimism in Drakeford’s
governance is not evenly spread, even among Of course, there are reasons to be cheerful.
those more likely to vote Labour. Young Wales’ Covid-19 vaccination programme has been
people (18-24), are most critical of the Welsh considered one of the most effective and efficient
Government’s handling of the outbreak, with 53% in the world, with all adults offered a first dose of
feeling they have not handled it well and 47% the vaccine six weeks ahead of schedule, before
thinking they have. any other UK region or nation.
And among the identity tribes, though there is While the vast majority of Welsh people believe
majority support for the Welsh Government’s that the Covid-19 vaccine is safe (76%), around
handling of the crisis across groups, the a quarter remain hesitant (24%). Those who
economically precarious Uneasy Pessimist are hesitant tend to be female (28% of female
group are the least enthusiastic of all groups in respondents weren’t confident that the vaccine
thinking that Welsh Government had handled the was safe compared to 9% of males), have
pandemic well (54% thought they had, 46% felt lower levels of education, and be younger.
they had not). Around half (46%) of 18-24s and 37% of 25-34s
said they didn’t feel confident in the vaccine’s
safety, compared with just 7% of over 65s
HOW THE IMPACT OF CORONAVIRUS SHAPES (though it should be noted that these groups
HOPES AND FEARS were less likely to have been offered a vaccine
The impact of the coronavirus outbreak has varied at the time of polling, with vaccine uptake across
greatly for each individual, with many mourning Wales high).
the loss of loved ones or facing acute financial And those who felt less confident in the vaccine’s
challenges, having put their education on hold or safety were also less likely to be trusting of
been unable to see family members overseas. But politicians, and more likely to feel pessimistic
we can identify broad effects of the pandemic in about the future and that things are getting worse
changing, or reinforcing, how we see the world for themselves and the country as a whole, and to
around us. have taken a financial blow from the pandemic.
This is clear in a sense of optimism across Wales. This reflects findings that vaccine hesitancy
Most are optimistic about the future (63%), with is related directly to broader issues of trust,
37% pessimistic. This is likely to be the ‘vaccine which is further weakened when people feel that
effect’ with the end of lockdown in Wales offering they are losing out. The unequal impact of the
a light at the end of the tunnel. pandemic has meant that some have lost much
This optimism was apparent when respondents more than others, weakening trust among some
were asked whether they felt things were better groups more than others.
Total 65% 35%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
The Welsh Government has handled the Covid-19 pandemic well
The Welsh Government has not handled the Covid-19 pandemic well
18 | August 2021WELSH FEAR AND HOPE
Vaccine hesitant (n=251) vs. Vaccine confident (n=792)
34%
I am pessimistic about the future
47%
Agree: Welsh people’s views 36%
are well represented by the
Westminster Government 18%
Agree: Politicians in the Senedd 39%
care about people like me 24%
Have applied for Universal Credit 15%
as a consequence of the
Coronavirus outbreak 29%
Have used a food bank as 11%
a consequence of the
Coronavirus outbreak 21%
Have struggled to pay rent as 15%
a consequence of the
Coronavirus outbreak 32%
Have felt a deep sense of 33%
loneliness as a consequence of the
Coronavirus outbreak 53%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
I am confident that the Covid-19 vaccine is safe I am not confident that the Covid-19 vaccine is safe
BUILDING BACK BETTER
The vaccine rollout across Wales clearly offers
hope, but the longer term picture is just
emerging, with the economic and societal shocks
caused by the pandemic framing the ‘new normal’.
The phrase ‘build back better’ has been adopted
by the Westminster government, with promises
for £58.7M growth deals in Wales, as well as new
Trade and Investment Hubs. Meanwhile, Welsh
Government have proposed a £100M recovery
plan for health and social care alongside a plan
for recovery that encompasses both long term
impacts for a more prosperous, more equal, and
greener Wales9.
When asked what should be prioritised by
Welsh Government in the recovery from
Covid-19, our polling finds a consensus that the
NHS should receive more funding, as well as
addressing the issues that affect local economies
and young people.
Notably, though there is support for a period
of reduced taxation in order to boost public
spending, though there is clear opposition to a
return to austerity as a route to recovery.
Despite the devastating impacts of the pandemic
for Wales, it is clear that Welsh people must be
at the centre of the recovery. Rather than growth
and large business investment, the outbreak of
coronavirus and subsequent lockdowns have
brought the importance of looking after each
other, and creating places where all can thrive, to
the fore.
August 2021 | 19WELSH FEAR AND HOPE
The coronavirus outbreak has had a significant economic impact on Wales. Which of
the following do you feel are the most important issues for the Welsh Government to
prioritise in order to help the economic recovery? Please select three issues.
Increased funding for
the NHS
Extra support to
help struggling high
streets
Additional support for
small businesses
Measures to increase
youth employment
and training
Reduction in taxation
in order to stimulate
the economy
Improving social care
Refuelling the
tourism industry
Infrastructure
spending on roads,
buildings, etc.
Better public
transport, such as
buses and trains
Addressing inequality
in society
Investment in Green
jobs
Ensuring fast and
reliable internet
coverage
Reduce public spend-
ing in order the reduce
the public deficit
Other
Don’t know
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Voting intention 2021 Senedd elections
Total Labour Conservative Plaid Don’t know I would not vote
20 | August 2021WELSH FEAR AND HOPE
IT IS VITAL THAT WE BUILD A COALITION OF SUPPORT
FOR TAKING ACTION TO SOLVE POVERTY
By Claire Thomas and Steffan Evans, The Bevan Foundation
With more than one in five people (23%) living end of furlough on the horizon and it looking
in poverty in Wales it is perhaps not surprising increasingly likely that many of the temporary
that nearly two thirds of Welsh adults are changes made to the social security system in
concerned about poverty. response to the pandemic will come to an end
Poverty was a significant problem in Wales long there is fear that the situation may get worse
before the pandemic, with no progress made before it gets better.
in reducing both the number and proportion The fact that nearly two thirds of people in
of people living in poverty for over a decade. Wales are concerned about poverty, however,
The pandemic has exacerbated these existing does offer some grounds for optimism. It is vital
problems, with many people seeing their that we build on this and build a coalition of
incomes fall and living costs increase. With the support for taking action to solve poverty.
August 2021 | 21WELSH FEAR AND HOPE
IDENTITY Most popular words used to
describe Wales today
Welsh national identity is strongly rooted in the
nation’s rich history and culture. The process of
devolution has proved to be a catalyst for Wales’
political and cultural confidence as a nation,
alongside the growth of the Welsh language.
Overall, our poll finds that half of respondents
define themselves as Welsh (50%), while 36%
say British and 9% say English. Just 3% describe
themselves as European.
Younger respondents were more likely to say they
were Welsh (60% of 18-24s, 57% of 25-34s and
54% of 35-44s compared to 47% of 45-54s and
45% of all those over 45). Labour (59%) and Plaid
(71%) voters were more likely to define themselves
as Welsh than Conservative voters (40%). In our poll, people generally held a very positive
view of Wales today, with most selecting positive
And across the identity tribes, only the soft liberal
words, as well as some terms to describe
tribe were more likely to describe themselves as
the current political context and impact of
British (47%) than as Welsh (36%), with the active
coronavirus, over negative words.
progressive tribe least likely to call themselves
British (16%), around the same proportion who The most popular term used by participants to
see themselves as European (15%). describe Wales today was “Welcoming”, chosen
Which of these words and phrases do you think best describes Wales today?
Please select three
Welcoming 33%
Divided 20%
Uncertain 20%
Safe 20%
Optimistic 19%
Strong 18%
Tolerant 13%
Open 13%
Happy 12%
Concerned 12%
United 11%
Downtrodden 9%
Declining 8%
Pessimistic 6%
Weak 6%
Fearful 5%
Don’t know 5%
Angry 4%
Unwelcoming 3%
Uncaring 3%
Intolerant 2%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Total
22 | August 2021WELSH FEAR AND HOPE
by a third of all respondents (33%). This was
followed by ‘divided’ (20%), ‘uncertain’ (20%) and
‘safe’ (20%). POLITICS AND IDENTITY
Younger respondents (18-24s) were more likely Our polling showed some stark differences in
to see Wales as ‘safe’ (25%) and ‘happy’ (25%) national identity between voters of political
while over 65s were more likely to see Wales as parties, particularly Labour and Conservative
‘welcoming’ (42%) and ‘tolerant’ (19%). voters, shedding some light on the relationship
between ‘Welshness’ and political identities.
This question revealed clear differences between
the identity tribes. Active progressives were Looking at the 2019 General Election vote,
most concerned that Wales is ‘divided’ and those who voted Conservative were more
‘downtrodden’, reflecting their opposition to likely to say they describe themselves as
the current government as well as the impact British (46%) than Welsh (46%), while for
of coronavirus on their own lives, but also Labour voters just 29% said British with more
‘tolerant’, reflecting their progressive social than twice as many (60%) saying Welsh. Plaid
values. Concerned Liberals were most likely to voters too, were substantially more likely to
see Wales today as ‘uncertain’, perhaps underlined say they saw themselves as Welsh (70%) than
by their fears of Brexit and their resistance to British (21%).
Welsh independence. Liberal optimists were, And looking at the Senedd vote, those planning
unsurprisingly, more likely to say the nation was to vote Labour were most likely to see Wales
‘optimistic’ and are the only tribe more likely today as a welcoming place, though the
to say Wales is ‘united’ than ‘divided’, while soft sentiment was shared across political loyalties.
liberals selected positive terms, ‘welcoming’, Conservative voters were more pessimistic;
‘optimistic’ and ‘safe’. of those planning to vote Conservative in
the Senedd elections, 12% used the word
Uneasy Pessimists were most likely to say
‘declining’, 12% ‘weak’, and 6% ‘angry’.
‘uncaring’, ‘angry’ and ‘divided’, reflecting their
own economic insecurity and detachment from Welsh Labour’s ability to connect with
the political system. The more hostile groups people who identify as Welsh is tied to an
were more likely to focus on insecurity, and to understanding of ‘Welshness’ that aligns
choose words like ‘weak’, ‘fearful’, ‘declining’ to Labour values, while the Conservatives
and ‘angry’. are more likely to be tapping into a feeling
As indicated by the differences in how people of unease among voters who feel more
see Wales today, there is no consensus on connected to the union and the Westminster
what it means to be Welsh, or what version of Government.
‘Welshness’ people subscribe to, including how
inclusive or exclusive people see their national
identity. against non-white people (48% agreed with
this statement, 24% disagreed). While Leave
voters (60%) and those who planned to vote
IDENTITY AND STATUS Conservative in the Senedd elections (58%) were
Indeed, looking at social attitudes across Wales, more likely to agree with this, the sentiment
there is some contradiction between a view is also shared by considerable numbers of
of Wales as welcoming, open and tolerant and Remainers (41%) as well as those who plan to
pockets of hostility and unease around issues like vote Labour (45%) and Plaid (51%) in the Senedd
immigration and multiculturalism. Our poll also election. While younger people were less likely to
finds a considerable degree of reactive sentiment agree, almost a third (31%) of 18-24s and nearly
to questions of identity and status. half (47%) of 24-35 year olds agreed that white
people face as much discrimination as non-white
We find that half of Welsh people believe that ‘You
people.
cannot be proud of your national identity these
days without being called racist’ (49%), while And these reactive views also extend to gender
only a quarter disagree with this (25%). Older politics. 40% overall agree that ‘Feminism has
people, Conservative voters and Leave voters gone too far and makes it harder for men to
were all more likely to agree with this. And of the succeed’ including a third of 18-24s (33%) and
tribes, not just did a majority of the more hostile more than half (51%) of Welsh men.
tribes agree with this statement, but also 63% Our research has seen a rise in the popularity of
of the reactionary ambivalent tribe, 60% of the reactionary politics, despite trends indicating that,
uneasy pessimist group and surprisingly, 60% of overall, society is becoming more socially liberal.
the progressive concerned liberal tribe, perhaps Public debates on race and gender equality have
reflecting the older makeup of this group. increasingly been hijacked by those who seek to
And worryingly, almost half of Welsh people divide. Social movements, like Black Lives Matter,
believe that discrimination against white people are demonised as extreme, encouraging people to
has become as big a problem as discrimination take refuge in their own identities, and creating
August 2021 | 23WELSH FEAR AND HOPE
fear about a disturbance of the status quo.
Growing polarisation alongside weakening trust in
political structures and public institutions sees
multiple issues lined up in opposition. Progressive
values are packaged up in populist language as
‘P.C. Culture’, cultivating the idea of a suppressive
force of ‘liberal elites’.
While the UK has not seen the same kind of
‘culture war’ debates that have so forcefully
taken hold in the US, the widespread nature
of these reactive views around identity across
Wales shows that there is space for more divisive
narratives to take hold.
PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE, BUT THE FINDINGS MAKE IT CLEAR THAT HATE IS STILL
DIVIDING US IN WALES AND CREATING FEAR AND DISTRUST IN OUR COMMUNITIES
Aliya Mohammed, Chief Executive Officer, Race Equality First
Race Equality First is pleased to support
HOPE not hate in the launch of this report,
which reveals a wealth of information about
the levels of tolerance and attitudes of people
in Wales. Whilst we can see that Wales has
a large tolerant and welcoming population,
there is also a worryingly high level of
resentment and hostility about immigration
and multiculturalism, with 42% of Welsh people
believing that immigrants have made it more
difficult for Welsh people to get jobs. work together to meet this challenge. We hope
Progress has been made, but the findings make that the data from the research will be used
it clear that hate is still dividing us in Wales and to evidence the need for greater resourcing
creating fear and distrust in our communities. of anti-hate crime services in Wales and to
The prevention of hate crime is a long-term support the development of policy and good
goal that will only be achieved if organisations practice in this area.
24 | August 2021WELSH FEAR AND HOPE
SOCIAL ATTITUDES
For the whole of Wales, Covid-19 remains the issue, above COVID-19, the economy and
biggest issue people say they are their family healthcare, and are also most likely to be
are facing at this time (45%), followed by the concerned about racism and discrimination and
economy (30%), healthcare (27%) and rising the impact of Brexit. Uneasy Pessimists are more
prices (23%). Unemployment and jobs are among likely to be concerned about homelessness and
the most important issues for 17% of the rising prices, while latent hostile are most likely
population, environmental issues for 16%, to say ‘loss of identity’ alongside crime and
the future of the United Kingdom for 14% and the violence and immigration. Brexit continues to be
implications of Brexit for 13%. an issue for the Leave voting hostile pessimists.
Interestingly there is not a huge amount of There is widespread concern among the Welsh
difference in how people answer this question population about poverty (65%), a lack of
by voting intention for the Senedd elections, opportunities for children growing up today (69%
with Covid-19 , the economy and healthcare the say they are concerned) and the decline of the
most pressing issues for all groups. Immigration high street (68%).
is listed as one of the most important issues by And many fear that these issues could get worse,
18% of those who planned to vote Conservative as the economic impact of coronavirus threatens
in the May elections but only 2% who planned to jobs. Half of Welsh people are worried that they
vote Plaid and 5% who planned to vote Labour. or someone in their family may lose their job as
Poverty and social inequality is more of an issue a result of the coronavirus pandemic (50% are
for Plaid and Labour voters (17%), who are also concerned, of which 19% are very concerned).
more concerned about the implications of Brexit
(18% Lab, 16% Plaid). Those who say they will not More than half say they are concerned about the
vote are more likely to say unemployment and level of racism in Wales (54%), especially 18-24s
jobs (23%) and the future of the United Kingdom (57%), female respondents (59%) and graduates
(18%) are key issues (62%), though concern spreads across all groups.
Just 10% of 18-24s list healthcare in their most The Black and ethnic minority population of
important issues, compared to 39% of over 65s, Wales remains small but growing, especially
This reflects that they are both less likely to use. around Cardiff, Swansea and Newport. Wales is
often considered a more tolerant nation than
or have dependents use, health services than
neighbouring England, and does not figure very
older age groups, but also that younger people
prominently in dicussions of the British Empire,
have been at lower risk from coronavirus.
perhaps through a fleeting reference, often in
While graduates are more concerned with the conjunction with England. But the Black Lives
economy than non-graduates (grad = 34%, non Matter protests that took place across the world
grad = 28%), non-graduates were more concerned over the summer of 2020 have reinvigorated
with the economic impact on their everyday lives conversations about racism in Wales.
and more likely to list rising prices (25% non grad,
Deep-seated concerns around institutional racism
18% grad) among their ‘most important issues’.
within the police in Wales are now prominent
That so many people list the environment among public issues, for example, coverage of the death
their concerns is encouraging. Our poll also finds of Mohamud Mohammed Hassan, who died after
that Global warming is a big concern for people being held in custody, which his family claim
across Wales, with 62% reporting that they worry was a direct result of police violence10. Everyday
about it, across all age groups and political racism is also becoming more visible - an ITV
leanings. And the majority of Welsh people (63%) poll from August 2020 found that nearly three
believe that we must all be prepared to make quarters of people in Wales who identify as black
some sacrifices to our lifestyles in order to stop or from an ethnic minority background said they
global warming. had personally experienced racial abuse11.
Across the tribes, too, there is considerable And while the Black Lives Matter protests in
difference in what each consider the most Wales did see some push back from reactionary
important issues facing Wales. Active Progressives far-right groups peddling ‘white lives mattter’
are most likely to see inequality as the greatest banners, our polling finds that the majority
August 2021 | 25You can also read
