Eyes Wide Open Investment Outlook 2018 - Emirates NBD
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WEALTH MANAGEMENT – INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2018
WEALTH MANAGEMENT
Eyes Wide Open
Investment Outlook - 2018
WEALTH MANAGEMENT – INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2018 2
2017 witnessed some of the most significant
disruptions experienced in over 50 years
WEALTH MANAGEMENT – INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2018 3
2017 Disruption and Rally
Traditional industries A change in the global The rise
and status of
were put in defence mode political landscape Emerging Markets
Technology Living is now > Nationalism
the new normal > Populism
> Reform
> Youth
WEALTH MANAGEMENT – INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2018 4
2018 Conviction and Persistence
We start 2018 with a
healthy dose of Focus areas
‘cautious optimism’
The 2018 investor must be discerning, focused, agile > Emerging Market assets
and adaptable > Equities: Select themes
> Fixed Income: All about alpha
> Absolute return strategies
WEALTH MANAGEMENT – INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2018 5
Global growth forecasts revised higher
along with earning upgrades
WEALTH MANAGEMENT – INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2018 6
Liquidity conditions are still very supportive
Global Financial Conditions Index
104
103
102
Tight
101
100
99 Loose
98
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD CIO Office, Dec 2017
WEALTH MANAGEMENT – INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2018 7
Synchronized global growth continues in 2018…
GDP Growth Forecast 2018
Growth (%)
8
7 South Asia
6
5 Southeast Asia East Asia
Emerging Markets Avg.
4 Africa
World Avg.
3 Middle East Western Europe
2 G7 Avg.
South America
1 North America
0 Growth (USD Bn)
0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500 1,750
Emerging market and developing economies Advanced Economies
Source: IMF, Jan 2018
WEALTH MANAGEMENT – INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2018 8
…while the US is in the late stages of the economic cycle
Bull-Bear Index and US Recessions
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015
Average percentile for the following US variables: ISM, slope of yield curve, core inflation, unemployment and Shiller P/E
Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Research, Dec 2017
WEALTH MANAGEMENT – INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2018 9
Opportunities exist in the growing Emerging Markets
Output Gap by Country (%)
The outlook for growth is
brighter in EM economies
EM Asia
Japan China Europe US (x China) Russia Indonesia Brazil India
-1.5 -1.3
-1.1 -1.1
-1.0 More room
for growth
-0.5 -0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.5 0.4
0.6
0.8 Less room
1.0
1.0 for growth
1.5
Source: Goldman Sachs Research, Nov 2017
WEALTH MANAGEMENT – INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2018 10
Equities and the Search for GrowthWEALTH MANAGEMENT – INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2018 11
The Equity bull run – will it continue in 2018?
Potential returns by Sector/Geography
Expect:
High single digit returns
in DMs Lithium
Low teen returns in EMs
AI
Genomics
Valuations of most markets Robotics
are reasonable Semiconductors
Technology
Volatility is a concern MSCI EM
India Sensex
MSCI World
Earnings growth in sync
S&P 500
with Global Growth
Japan Nikkei
Eurostoxx
GCC
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
2017 2018E
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD CIO Office, Dec 2017WEALTH MANAGEMENT – INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2018 12
Where would we invest in 2018?
Theme Tactical Strategic
Geography
EM (Asia) Consumer, Tech
Europe ex UK Food, Auto, Industrials
GCC Banks, UAE Real Estate, KSA Petchems
US Financials, Tech, Defence, Industrials
Japan Robotics
UK Oil E&P
Top Innovation Sectors
Technology in Industry Cloud Services, Robotics, AI, Ecommerce, Blockchain, Semiconductors
Healthcare Genomics, Digital, Wearables, Life Sciences
Financial Services Digital Payments, Cybersecurity
Source: Emirates NBD CIO Office, Dec 2017WEALTH MANAGEMENT – INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2018 13
GCC – will equity markets catch up?
MSCI GCC Index in line with MSCI EM/Index
What we like
> Sustainable Dividend
payers 160
> Banks
> Logistics 140
> Dubai Real Estate
> Healthcare 120 111
104
KSA inclusion into EM indices 100
and Saudi Aramco IPO are the
next big catalysts 80
60 59
40
20
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
MXEF Index MXGCC Index CO1 Comdty
Source: Bloomberg; Data rebased to 100 as of Dec 30, 2013WEALTH MANAGEMENT – INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2018 14
Will growth continue to outperform value?
Growth has outperformed value since the financial crisis
Focus on bottom up stories
to capture the sustainability of
earnings growth and quality 160
Stay vigilant and book 140
your profits
120
100
80
60
40
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
MSCI World Growth Index MSCI World Value Index
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD CIO Office, Jan 2018. Data rebased to 2008WEALTH MANAGEMENT – INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2018 15
The return of volatility
The Vix Index spikes after a year of calm
2017 has been the calmest
year on record
45
2018 Vix spikes from 9 to 40 40
35
Unwinding of short volatility
30
strategies
25
Consistent with late cycle 20
expansion
15
Yields not yet a worry 10
5
Inflation rising but low 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD CIO Office, Feb 2018WEALTH MANAGEMENT – INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2018 16
Demographics – watch out for the Millennials…
Willingness to spend across generations (%)
80
70
60
Millennials
50
40
30 Generation X
20
Baby Boomers
10
Taxis and Coffee The latest Clothes that Eating at Going to see
Ubers that costs technology I don’t one of the live music,
more than $4 gadget necessarily hot restaurants sports or
need in town another event
Source: CNBC, 2017WEALTH MANAGEMENT – INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2018 17
…and the Emerging Markets middle class
Workforce in the age group of 15-64 (Bn People)
Developed Regions Developing Regions 5.4
4.7
0.80 0.79 0.75 4.1
2017 2018 2019
2017 2018 2019
Source: United Nations Population DivisionWEALTH MANAGEMENT – INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2018 18
Asia technology – China is the new global technology thought center; India still underpenetrated
Number of Mobile payment users in China (M) Smartphone penetration in India
Connections Penetration
469 (M) (%)
800 55 60
51
358 700
46 50
+73% CAGR 600 40
40
500 32
217
400 30
24 702
300 629
125 17 544 20
451
200
340
55 239 10
31 100 157
0 0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E
Source: China Internet Network Information Centre Source: Cellular Operator Association of India - Annual Report 2017WEALTH MANAGEMENT – INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2018 19
Fixed Income: Key Themes For 2018
Policy Normalization To Test Bond Markets “Alpha” And Not “Beta”
Emerging Markets – Better Value Stop Chasing YieldWEALTH MANAGEMENT – INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2018 20
What are Global Central Banks up to?
USA Europe Japan
Ongoing Policy Gradual Withdrawal Quantitative And Qualitative
Normalization of Stimulus Monetary Easing
Three Rate Hikes in 2018 No Rate Hikes Expected Yield Curve ControlWEALTH MANAGEMENT – INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2018 21
$71tn of new debt created in the last decadeWEALTH MANAGEMENT – INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2018 22
Global growth led by debt creation
Composite breakdown of Global Debt
USD
Trillions +209%
+232%
70 68
+314%
63
60 58
53 +193%
50
44
42
40
33 34
30
22
19
20 15
14
10
0
Non Financial Corporates Government Financial Sector Household
1997 2007 2017
Source: IMF, 2017WEALTH MANAGEMENT – INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2018 23
Do not chase yield
Century Bond Yields (%) 5-Year Bond Yields (%)
4.2
2.7
2.5
1.9 1.9 2.0
0.7
0.4
Kingdom Republic Republic United 0.0
of Belgium of Ireland of Austria Mexican Germany Spain Italy USA Greece
States
Source: Bloomberg, Dec 2017WEALTH MANAGEMENT – INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2018 24
The effect of Fed tightening on EM debt
Rising interest rate myths
Spread Yield
(bps) (%)
1200 8
7
1000
6
800
5
600 4
3
400
2
200
1
0 0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Fed Funds rate UST 10 Yr EM Spread
Source: Bloomberg, Dec 2017WEALTH MANAGEMENT – INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2018 25
What we prefer in the bond markets – positioning and strategy
Favour EM over other sub-asset classes
Yield
(%) Least Preferred Most Preferred
6 5.61
5.14
5 4.62
4.26
4
3.24 3.36
3 2.56 2.43
2
1.23
1 0.83
0
DM European Global HY US HY European EM Debt GCC UAE IG Global U.S.
Sovereign Sovereigns HY IG Credit Treasury
Bonds (Agg)
Source: Bloomberg, Dec 2017WEALTH MANAGEMENT – INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2018 26
Is the worst behind us?WEALTH MANAGEMENT – INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2018 27
Is the worst behind us?
Highlights Average GDP growth in the GCC (%)
> 2016 & 2017 have been challenging on a number of fronts 5.5
> Lower oil prices forced fiscal reform across the region
> Oil production cuts pushed some countries into recession 3.6 3.6 3.3
3.2
2.5 2.8
> Non-oil sector growth slowed, businesses more productive
> Strong growth in output largely due to selling price cuts,
no employment or wage growth 0.6
> Households under strain from higher living costs
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
KSA PMI components UAE PMI components
70 65
60
60
55
50
50
40 45
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Output/ Business Activity Employment Selling prices
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD ResearchWEALTH MANAGEMENT – INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2018 28
Oil outlook: Risks balanced to the downside
Highlights Prices to drift lower from Q1… (USD/b)
> Brent futures expected to average USD 60/b in 2018 WTI Brent
120
> Further softness as US adds >1m b/d y/y each quarter
100
in 2018
> OPEC output higher in 2018 80
> Balanced market will keep inventories from growing but they 60
won’t draw down much either 40
20
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
…as supply response from US will be large… (M b/d) …and prevent inventories from declining
4.0 70
2.0 65
0.0 60
-2.0
55
-4.0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 50
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Non-OPEC supply OPEC supply Total supply growth OECD commercial stocks: days of demand cover
Source: EIKON, IEA, Emirates NBD ResearchWEALTH MANAGEMENT – INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2018 29
Fiscal and external balances supported by higher oil prices in 2018
Highlights Average GCC budget and external balances (% GDP)
> Higher oil prices allow governments to spend more Current account Budget balance
40
o But budgets to remain in deficit
> Significant fiscal stimulus announced in KSA, all GCC 20
countries expected to announce higher spending this year
o Public sector wages rise to compensate for subsidy cuts 0
and VAT
o Infrastructure spending set to rise -20
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
KSA budget spending (USD Bn) Growth in GCC budget spending (2018 over 2017)
296 279 13.0%
261 247
224
8.4% 8.3%
5.0%
2.9% 2.4% 2.6%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 KSA UAE Qatar Kuwait Oman Bahrain Total
GCC
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD ResearchWEALTH MANAGEMENT – INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2018 30
Growth outlook is constructive
Highlights KSA oil production vs target
> GCC oil exporters have room to increase oil production while 11.0 KSA oil production KSA production target
remaining compliant with OPEC targets
10.5
> Oil sector growth will contribute to headline GDP growth
10.0
> Non-oil sector growth to accelerate with increased spending
> Household demand likely to be constrained by higher taxes 9.5
> Sectors to benefit: construction (infrastructure), tourism (UAE 9.0
and KSA) as well as oil & gas Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan-
16 16 16 16 17 17 17 17 18
Oil sector growth Non-oil sector growth
5 6
4
0
2
-5 0
KSA UAE Qatar* Kuwait Oman Bahrain KSA UAE Qatar* Kuwait Oman Bahrain
2016 2017E 2018F
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD ResearchWEALTH MANAGEMENT – INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2018 31
Risks
Highlights 3m EIBOR spread over 3m USD LIBOR (%)
> Geopolitics
0.6
> Downside Risk to oil prices as fundamentals suggest
lower levels 0.4
> GCC budgets to remain in deficit, increased reliance on debt
financing poses risks for the medium term 0.2
> Higher US rates mean higher borrowing costs for GCC 0.0
sovereigns and companies – sharp rise in stock of public debt Jan-2016 Jul-2016 Jan-2017 Jul-2017 Jan-2018
could be a cause for concern by 2020
CDS spreads in the GCC Total new debt issued by the GCC (USD Bn)
176
300 155
120
95 99
100
20
0
Jan-2017 Apr-2017 Jul-2017 Oct-2017 Jan-2018 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD
Abu Dhabi Dubai Qatar KSA Bahrain Kuwait
Source: Bloomberg, Haver Analytics, SAMA, Emirates NBD ResearchWEALTH MANAGEMENT – INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2018 32
Blockchain: major technology transforming financial services
Technologies Financial Services Applications
Foundations Innovations Pay Save Borrow Manage risks Get advice
Machine Investment Advice (Robots)
AI Learning Credit Decisions
Big Data Predictive Regtech, Fraud Detection
Analytics Asset Trading
Settle
Distributed B2B
Distributed
Ledger
Computing Back-office and Recording
(Blockchain)
Digital Currencies
Smart Automatic Transactions
Crypto-
Contracts Security
graphy
Biometrics Identiy Protection
Easy to use Digital Wallets: Finance Dashboards: P2P
Mobile
APIs Digital Crowd-funding
Access
Wallets
Internet Inter-operability and Expandability
Source: Morningstar, Dec 2017WEALTH MANAGEMENT – INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2018 33
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