Effects of Coronavirus on Civil Aviation - Air Transport Committee, 219th Session 7 February 2020 - ACI Asia-Pacific

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Effects of Coronavirus on Civil Aviation - Air Transport Committee, 219th Session 7 February 2020 - ACI Asia-Pacific
Air Transport Committee, 219th Session
7 February 2020

Effects of Coronavirus
on Civil Aviation

Montréal, Canada
Effects of Coronavirus on Civil Aviation - Air Transport Committee, 219th Session 7 February 2020 - ACI Asia-Pacific
Outline

• ICAO Regulatory Framework:
     • Chicago Convention and Annexes 6, 9, 11, 14 and 15
     • Assembly Resolutions in Force

• Economic Impact

• Coordination with Other UN entities

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Effects of Coronavirus on Civil Aviation - Air Transport Committee, 219th Session 7 February 2020 - ACI Asia-Pacific
Air traffic has been vulnerable to external factors
                                                                  including disease outbreaks

Source: ICAO Annual Report of the Council                                             Scheduled commercial traffic
                                             3
                                                                        Total (international and domestic) services
Effects of Coronavirus on Civil Aviation - Air Transport Committee, 219th Session 7 February 2020 - ACI Asia-Pacific
ICAO Regulatory Framework

                            4
Effects of Coronavirus on Civil Aviation - Air Transport Committee, 219th Session 7 February 2020 - ACI Asia-Pacific
ICAO Regulatory framework

•   Chicago Convention: Articles 13, 14 and 22

•   Annexes:
           1.     Annex 6 – Operation of Aircraft
           2.     Annex 9 – Facilitation
           3.     Annex 11 – Air Traffic Services
           4.     Annex 14 – Aerodromes
           5.     Annex 15 – Aeronautical Information Services

•   Facilitation Manual – Doc 9957
•   Model National Air Transport Facilitation Programme – Doc 10042
•   Procedures for AN Services – Air Traffic Management (PANS-ATM, Doc 4444)

                                                                               5
Effects of Coronavirus on Civil Aviation - Air Transport Committee, 219th Session 7 February 2020 - ACI Asia-Pacific
ICAO Regulatory framework

                    Chicago Convention
 Article 13, Entry and clearance regulations
The laws and regulations of a contracting State as to the admission to or
departure from its territory of passengers, crew or cargo of aircraft, such as
regulations relating to entry, clearance, immigration, passports, customs,
and quarantine shall be complied with by or on behalf of such passengers,
crew or cargo upon entrance into or departure from, or while within the
territory of that State.

                                                                                 6
Effects of Coronavirus on Civil Aviation - Air Transport Committee, 219th Session 7 February 2020 - ACI Asia-Pacific
ICAO Regulatory framework

                   Chicago Convention
 Article 14, Prevention of spread of disease
Each contracting State agrees to take effective measures to prevent the
spread by means of air navigation of cholera, typhus (epidemic), smallpox,
yellow fever, plague, and such other communicable diseases as the
contracting States shall from time to time decide to designate, and to that
end contracting States will keep in close consultation with the agencies
concerned with international regulations relating to sanitary measures
applicable to aircraft. Such consultation shall be without prejudice to the
application of any existing inter-national convention on this subject to
which the contracting States may be parties.
                                                                              7
Effects of Coronavirus on Civil Aviation - Air Transport Committee, 219th Session 7 February 2020 - ACI Asia-Pacific
ICAO Regulatory framework

                    Chicago Convention
 Article 22, Facilitation of formalities
Each contracting State agrees to adopt all practicable measures, through
the issuance of special regulations or otherwise, to facilitate and expedite
navigation by aircraft between the territories of contracting States, and to
prevent unnecessary delays to aircraft, crews, passengers and cargo,
especially in the administration of the laws relating to immigration,
quarantine, customs and clearance.

                                                                               8
Effects of Coronavirus on Civil Aviation - Air Transport Committee, 219th Session 7 February 2020 - ACI Asia-Pacific
ICAO Regulatory framework
                                                    Relevant SARPs and Guidance Material
The Standards and Recommended Practices (SARPs) that relate to the preparedness and management of public health
emergencies are contained in:
•   Annex 6 to the Chicago Convention – regarding universal precaution kits;
•   Annex 9 – regarding compliance with the International Health Regulations and facilities required for public health
    measures at airports;
•   Annex 11 – regarding contingency plans in the event of potential disruption of services;
•   Annex 14 – regarding aerodrome emergency plan for public health emergencies; and
•   Annex 15 – regarding requirements for flight crew advisories;
The related guidance material is contained in:
•   Facilitation Manual;
•   Model National Air Transport Facilitation Programme; and
•   PANS-ATM – regarding procedures for reporting suspected communicable diseases.

                                                                                                                         9
Effects of Coronavirus on Civil Aviation - Air Transport Committee, 219th Session 7 February 2020 - ACI Asia-Pacific
ICAO Regulatory framework
                                         Relevant SARPs and Guidance Material

                  Annex 6 – Operation of Aircraft
Annex 6 Part I, Chapter 6 - An aeroplane shall be equipped with:
• Accessible and adequate medical supplies;
• Recommendation.— Medical supplies should comprise:

    1) one or more first-aid kits for the use of cabin crew in managing incidents of ill health;
    2) for aeroplanes required to carry cabin crew as part of the operating crew, one
       universal precaution kit (two for aeroplanes authorized to carry more than 250
       passengers) for the use of cabin crew members in managing incidents of ill health
       associated with a case of suspected communicable disease, or in the case of illness
       involving contact with body fluids;

                                                                                                   10
ICAO Regulatory framework
                                        Relevant SARPs and Guidance Material

         Annex 6 – Operation of Aircraft (continued)
Annex 6 Part I, Chapter 6 Attachment A (Medical Supplies)
• 2.2 Universal precaution kits:
    – Additional kit(s) should be made available at times of increased public health risk,
       such as during an outbreak of a serious communicable disease having pandemic
       potential.
Annex 6 Part I, Chapter 12 (Cabin Crew)
• 12.4 Training:
    – Training programmes shall ensure that each cabin crew is drilled and capable in the
       use of emergency and life-saving equipment required to be carried, such as […] first-
       aid and universal precaution kits
    – Guidance in Doc 10002 (Cabin Crew Safety Training Manual) Chapter 8 (Cabin Health
       & First-aid Training) addresses cabin crew procedures for the UPK, signs and
       symptoms, and action required when dealing with a suspected or actual case of a
       communicable disease on board
                                                                                               11
Regulatory framework
                     Annex 9 – Facilitation
● “Health-related” SARPs: in Annex 9 since its 1st Edition (1949)
      → aircraft disinsection
      → aircraft disinfection
      → WHO’s International Health Regulations (IHR)
      → Requirements: maintenance of public health, animal
         and plant quarantine at international airports
      → (standard) vaccination certificates
● CHAPTER 1: 5 Definitions
Regulatory framework

● Annex 9 – Facilitation CHAPTER 1: 5 Definitions
• Public health emergency of international concern. An extraordinary event which
   is determined, as provided in the International Health Regulations (2005) of the
   World Health Organization: (i) to constitute a public health risk to other States
   through the international spread of disease and (ii) to potentially require a
   coordinated international response.

• Public health risk. A likelihood of an event that may affect adversely the health of
  human populations, with an emphasis on one which may spread internationally or
  may present a serious and direct danger.
ICAO Regulatory framework
                                         Relevant SARPs and Guidance Material

                             Annex 9 (continued)
●CHAPTER 2: Entry and Departure of Aircraft
      → SARPs relating to the IHR
      → SARPs relating to Disinsection & Disinfection of aircraft

● CHAPTER 3: Entry and Departure of Persons and their Baggage
       → 1 Standard on international certificates of vaccination or prophylaxis

● CHAPTER 6: International Airports — Facilities and Services For Traffic
       → SARPs on facilities required for implementation of public health, emergency
          medical relief, and animal and plant quarantine measures
       → SARPs on facilities required for clearance controls and operation of control services
                                                                                            14
Regulatory framework

● Annex 9 – Facilitation CHAPTER 2: Entry and Departure of Aircraft
• 2.4 Contracting States shall not prevent an aircraft from calling at any international
   airport for public health reasons unless such action is taken in accordance with the
   International Health Regulations (2005) of the World Health Organization.
• 2.4.1 Recommended Practice.— In cases where, in exceptional circumstances, air
   transport service suspensions on public health grounds are under consideration,
   Contracting States should first consult with the World Health Organization and the
   health authority of the State of occurrence of the disease before taking any decision
   as to the suspension of air transport services.
Regulatory framework
● Annex 9 – Facilitation CHAPTER 2: Entry and Departure of Aircraft
• 2.5 If, in response to a specific public health risk or a public health emergency of
   international concern, a Contracting State is considering introduction of health
   measures in addition to those recommended by WHO, it shall do so in accordance
   with the International Health Regulations (2005), including but not limited to
   Article 43, which states, in part, that when determining whether to implement the
   additional health measures States Parties shall base their determinations upon:
• (a) scientific principles; (b) available scientific evidence of a risk to human health,
   or where such evidence is insufficient, the available information including from
   WHO and other relevant intergovernmental organizations and international bodies;
   and (c) any available specific guidance or advice from WHO.
Regulatory framework

● Annex 9 – Facilitation CHAPTER 2: Entry and Departure of Aircraft
• Note 1.— Standard 2.5 applies only to those situations where there is an official IHR
   (2005) Temporary Recommendation (i.e. in the context of a declared public health
   emergency of international concern), or a Standing
• Recommendation in effect. These requirements in Article 43 can also apply to other
   contexts involving additional measures applied to international traffic (including
   aircraft), such as IHR Articles 23 2), 27 1) and 28.
• Note 2.— Article 43 of the IHR (2005) also requires that a State that implements
   additional measures thereunder that significantly interfere with international traffic
   is required to provide to WHO the public health and scientific rationale for such
   measures.
Regulatory framework

● Annex 9 – Facilitation CHAPTER 2: Entry and Departure of Aircraft
• 2.5.1 Recommended Practice.— Any State impacted by a measure taken under
   Standard 2.4, or a suspension as described in Recommended Practice 2.4.1, should,
   where appropriate, request the State implementing such a measure to consult with it.
   The purpose of such consultations would be to clarify the scientific information and
   public health rationale underlying the measure and to find a mutually acceptable
   solution.
Regulatory framework
                           Annex 9 (continued)
● CHAPTER 8: Facilitation Provisions Covering Specific Subjects
       → SARPs on the implementation of international health regulations and related
       provisions
                 — Requirement for pilot-in-command to report suspected case of
                 communicable disease to air traffic control
                 — Definition of communicable disease
       → 1 Standard on communicable disease outbreak national aviation plan

● Appendix 1: General Declaration (includes declaration of health)
● Appendix 13: Public Health Passenger Locator Form (for passengers to complete in the
event of suspected communicable disease on board)
Regulatory framework

● Annex 9 – Facilitation CHAPTER 8:
• F. Communicable disease outbreak national aviation plan
• 8.16 A Contracting State shall establish a national aviation plan in preparation for an
   outbreak of a communicable disease posing a public health risk or public health
   emergency of international concern.
• Note 1.— Guidance in developing a national aviation plan may be found on the
   ICAO website on the Aviation Medicine page.
• Note 2.— Annex 11 — Air Traffic Services and Annex 14 — Aerodromes, Volume I
   — Aerodrome Design and Operations require air traffic services and aerodromes to
   establish contingency planning or aerodrome emergency plans, respectively, for
   public health emergencies of international concern.
ICAO Regulatory framework
                                         Relevant SARPs and Guidance Material

               Annex 11 – Air Traffic Services
2.32 Contingency arrangements

   Air traffic services authorities shall develop and promulgate contingency plans for
   implementation in the event of disruption, or potential disruption, of air traffic
   services and related supporting services in the airspace for which they are
   responsible for the provision of such services. Such contingency plans shall be
   developed with the assistance of ICAO as necessary, in close coordination with the
   air traffic services authorities responsible for the provision of services in adjacent
   portions of airspace and with airspace users concerned.

                                                                                            21
ICAO Regulatory framework
                                         Relevant SARPs and Guidance Material

                        Annex 14 – Aerodromes
•   Annex 14, Volume I, Chapter 9 contains SARPs on aerodrome emergency planning,
    including for public health emergencies.

9.1.2 The aerodrome emergency plan shall provide for the coordination of the actions to be
taken in an emergency occurring at an aerodrome or in its vicinity.

9.1.3 The plan shall coordinate the response or participation of all existing agencies which,
in the opinion of the appropriate authority, could be of assistance in responding to an
emergency.

                                                                                                22
ICAO Regulatory framework
                                        Relevant SARPs and Guidance Material

    Annex 15 – Aeronautical Information Services
Chapter 6: Aeronautical Information Updates

    6.2.6 Recommendation.— The regulated system (AIRAC) should be used for the provision
    of information relating to the establishment and withdrawal of, and premeditated
    significant changes in, the circumstances listed below:
     …
     c) customs, immigration and health services;

                                                                                           23
ICAO Regulatory framework
                                        Relevant SARPs and Guidance Material

     Procedures for Air Navigation Services -
 Air Traffic Management (PANS-ATM, Doc 4444)
16 Miscellaneous Procedures
   16.6 Notification of suspected communicable diseases, or other public health risk,
   on board an aircraft
   – Flight crew procedures
   – Air traffic services (ATS) unit procedures

                                                                                        24
ICAO Regulatory framework
                                                      Assembly Resolutions

A35-12 (2004): Protection of the Health of Passengers and Crews and the
Prevention of the Spread of Communicable Disease through International Travel

A37-13 (2010): Prevention of spread of communicable disease through air travel

A40-14 (2019): Mitigation of the spread of disease through, inter alia, aircraft
disinsection and vector control methods, and the importance of CAPSCA (Collaborative
Arrangement for the prevention and Management of Public Health Events in Civil
Aviation) for implementation

                                                                                  25
Economic Impact

Traffic and Revenue Impact Analysis

                26
Air traffic has been vulnerable to external factors
                                                                  including disease outbreaks

Source: ICAO Annual Report of the Council                                             Scheduled commercial traffic
                                             27
                                                                        Total (international and domestic) services
What can we learn from past experience?
                                                               Ebola outbreak 2014

Source: ICAO Information paper 2014   28
What can we learn from past experience?
                                                                                 SARS, Aviation flue, MERS

                                                                                        History shows that SARS
                                                                                        has the most serious
                                                                                        impact on traffic. At the
                                                                                        height of the outbreak
                                                                                        (May 2003), monthly
                                                                                        RPKs of Asia-Pacific
                                                                                        airlines were 35% lower
                                                                                        than their pre-crisis
                                                                                        levels. Overall in 2003,
                                                                                        Asia-Pacific airlines lost
                                                                                        8% of annual RPKs and
                                                                                        $6 billion of revenues.

Source: IATA Economics’ Chart of the Week (24 January 2020)   29
Chinese international traffic
                                                                                                          doubled since 2003 SARS spread

          Total number of passenger moved through Chinese airports
                                   2003-2018                                                             Passengers move to/from Chinese airports
                            (million of passengers)                                                                   2018 vs 2003
                                                                                                900

1,400
                                                                                                800   Annual average
                                                                                        1,266                                                       114
                                                                                                700   growth rate: 9.6%
1,200                                                                           1,148
                                                                        1,016                   600
1,000                                                            916                            500
                                                          832
  800
                                                   755                                          400
                                            680
                                     621                                                                                                            702
  600
                              559                                                               300
        SARS                                                                                    200
  400                  336                                                                                       50
                259                                                                             100
         187                                                                                                    138
  200
                                                                                                 0
                                                                                                               2003                                 2018
    -
                                                                                                            Domestic passengers   International Passengers
         2003   2006   2009   2010   2011   2012   2013   2014   2015   2016    2017    2018

Source: ICAO-ACI Airport traffic data.                                                 30
Air connectivity of China

Source: ICAO-ICM MIDT data   31
Air connectivity of Wuhan airport

Source: ICAO-ICM MIDT data   32
Number of international scheduled seats of airlines
                                                                      from/to China (January 2019 to December 2019)

   10,000,000

    9,000,000                                                                                                            • Average monthly seats
    8,000,000                                                                                                              offered by Chinese
                                                                                                                           carriers: 9.0 million
    7,000,000                                                                                                              (52% share)
    6,000,000                                                                                                            • Average monthly seats
                                                                                                                           offered by foreign
    5,000,000                                                                                                              carriers: 8.1 million
    4,000,000                                                                                                              (48% share)

    3,000,000

    2,000,000
                                                                                                                            Foreign Carriers
    1,000,000                                                                                                               Chinese Carriers
           -

           *Data excludes Special Administrative Regions (SAR) of China (Hong Kong SAR and Macao SAR) and Taiwan, Province of China

Source: OAG Scheduled data                                                33
Number of international scheduled seats of airlines
                                                                           from/to China (2020 1Q originally-planned)

                                                                     (million of seats)
         11.00                                 10.22
         10.00                                                                                                                   9.45
                                                                                           9.11
          9.00               8.48                                                                              8.36
                                                                      7.87
          8.00
          7.00
          6.00
          5.00
          4.00
          3.00
          2.00
          1.00
            -
                                    Jan-2020                                    Feb-2020                              Mar-2020

                                                             Foreign Carriers      Chinese Carriers

          * Data excludes Special Administrative Regions (SAR) of China (Hong Kong SAR and Macao SAR) and Taiwan, Province of China

Source: OAG Scheduled data                                                   34
Number of international scheduled seats of airlines
                                                                                                           from/to China (YoY growth rate)

                                          Year-over-year seat capacity growth from/to China: January 2019 to March 2020
           20%

                  16.6%
                                                                                                                                           15.7%
                                                           14.5%                                                        14.7%
           15%
                            13.3%     12.8%   13.4%                   13.1%               13.3%                                   12.9%
                                                                                12.5%                                                                                             YoY seat
                                                                                                     11.9%
                                                                                                                                                                                  evolution_Chinese
                                                                                                                10.5%
                                                                                                                                                                                  Carriers
           10%                                                                                                                                                      8.6%
                                                                                                                                                      8.1%
                                                                                                                                               7.3%          7.6%
                                                                                                                                                                                  YoY seat
                                                                                                                                      4.9%                                 5.2%   evolution_Foreign
             5%                                                                                                              4.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                  Carriers
                                                    2.4%       2.7%
                     1.3%                                                1.8%
                                                                                              1.6%       1.6%       1.4%
                                                                                   0.9%
                               -3.0%      -0.7%
             0%
                   2019      2019      2019       2019      2019       2019      2019      2019        2019      2019      2019     2019     2020      2020         2020
                   JAN        FEB      MAR        APR       MAY        JUN        JUL      AUG          SEP      OCT       NOV      DEC      JAN        FEB         MAR
            -5%

                                                                                                                                              Originally-planned

           -10%
                                    * Data excludes Special Administrative Regions (SAR) of China (Hong Kong SAR and Macao SAR) and Taiwan, Province of China
Source: OAG scheduled data                                                                        35
Outbreak of coronavirus caused a substantial setback in
                                     flight bookings for Chinese New Year period

Source: forwardkeys.com          36
Airlines suspended scheduled flights to/from China
                                                                                              (announced since late January 2020)

                                                                     Airlines with service cancelled
                                                                                 JC (Cambodia)
         Aeromexico           Air Seoul, Inc          Delta Air Lines                                         Oman Air           SAS Scandinavian Airlines      Urumqi Airlines
                                                                             International Airlines
                                                                                                        Pakistan International
         Air Algerie              Alitalia           Donghai Airlines             Jetstar Asia                                    Saudi Arabian Airlines           Vietjet Air
                                                                                                               Airlines

         Air Astana         American Airlines            Egyptair              Jetstar Asia China            PAL Express                   Scoot                Vietnam Airlines

                         Austrian Airlines AG dba
         Air Canada                                 El Al Israel Airlines    Jetstar Pacific Airlines   Peach Aviation Limited      Shandong Airlines        Virgin Atlantic Airways
                                 Austrian

         Air France              Azur Air             Eznis Airways         KLM-Royal Dutch Airlines      Philippine Airlines         Siberia Airlines              Yakutia

          Air India           British Airways             Finnair               Lanmei Airlines            Qantas Airways                  Swiss

          Air Koryo      Cambodia Airways Co. Ltd   Garuda Indonesia          LOT - Polish Airlines         Qatar Airways             Turkish airlines

                                                                               Lufthansa German
       Air Madagascar      Cambodia Angkor Air      Himalaya Airlines                                      Royal Air Maroc               T'way Air
                                                                                    Airlines
                                                                               MIAT - Mongolian                                   Ukraine International
        Air Mauritius        Cebu Pacific Air              Iberia                                        Royal Brunei Airlines
                                                                                   Airlines                                             Airlines
                                                                               Myanmar Airways
       Air New Zealand      Chongqing Airlines            IndiGo                                              Rwandair                United Airlines
                                                                                International

Source: Routes Online (as of 5 February 2020)                                         37
Airlines reduced scheduled flights to/from China
                                                                                     (announced since late January 2020)

                                                         Airlines with service reduced

        Air Busan          Cathay Pacific Airways      HK Express                Malaysia Airlines           Singapore Airlines             Uni Airways

        Air China              China Airlines       Hong Kong Airlines           Malindo Airways              Spring Airlines               Ural Airlines

        Air Macau          China Eastern Airlines     Japan Airlines            Mandarin Airlines          Spring Airlines Japan      Xiamen Airlines Company

        Air Niugini       China Southern Airlines      Jeju Airlines                  Nok Air                Srilankan Airlines

         AirAsia                 Eastar Jet           Jetstar Japan           Philippines AirAsia Inc.       STARLUX Airlines

         Airasia X               Emirates                 Jin Air             Qingdao Airline Co, Ltd         Thai Air Asia X

    All Nippon Airways       Ethiopian Airlines      Juneyao Airlines           Shanghai Airlines               Thai AirAsia

      Asiana Airlines         Etihad Airways          Kenya airways             Shenzhen Airlines        Thai Airways International

         Batik Air             EVA Airways             Korean Air                Sichuan Airlines              Thai Lion Air

      Cathay Dragon           Hainan Airlines            Lion Air                     SilkAir             Tigerair Taiwan Co. Ltd

Source: Routes Online (as of 5 February 2020)                            38
Scenario analysis in comparison with
                                                                                      originally-planned airline schedules (1Q 2020)

                                                                       Scenario 1                                                 Scenario 2
                  Assumptions                     Seat capacity reduction                                    Seat capacity reduction
                                                                               Passenger load factor                                      Passenger load factor
                                                  from originally-planned                                    from originally-planned
                         Chinese carriers                   3%                           78%                           3%                          78%
   January 2020
                          Foreign carriers                  5%                           80%                           5%                          80%

                         Chinese carriers                   39%                          78%                          39%                          58%
   February 2020
                          Foreign carriers                  77%                          80%                          77%                          66%

                         Chinese carriers                   40%                          78%                          49%                          64%
    March 2020
                          Foreign carriers                  77%                          80%                          84%                          70%
Scheduled international passengers to/from                                                                 Seat capacity reduction will be escalated by 7 to 10% in
                                                Seat capacity reduction will continue at almost the
mainland China only (i.e. excluding Hong Kong                                                              March 2020;
                                                same percentage from February to March 2020;
Special Administrative Region (SAR) of China,                                                              Loat factor will be decreased by 14 to 20% in February
                                                Loat factor for 1Q 2020 is fixed at the reported results
Macao SAR of China and Taiwan, Province of                                                                 2020 and by 10 to 14% in March 2020 compared to
                                                in 2018
China)                                                                                                     January 2020

                                                                                 39
Scenario 1:
                                                          Seat capacity reduction compared to 2019

Source: ICAO estimates based on OAG scheduled data   40
Scenario 2:
                                                          Seat capacity reduction compared to 2019

Source: ICAO estimates based on OAG scheduled data   41
Reduction of approx. 16.4 to 19.6 million passengers
                                                                                                      for 1Q 2020

                                                     5.97                                          8.43

                                                     10.39
                                                                                                    11.22

Source: ICAO estimates based on OAG scheduled data               42
Approx. USD 4.1 to 4.9 billion
                                                                                              potential loss of revenue for 1Q 2020

             Scenario 1 revenue loss (USD, million)*                                          Scenario 2 revenue loss (USD, million)*
  1,400.00                                                                         1,400.00
                                                                   1,293.83                                                                       1,293.83
                                             1,213.97                                                                       1,213.97
  1,200.00                                                                         1,200.00

  1,000.00                                                                         1,000.00

                                      701.93                   730.93                                                701.93                   730.93
    800.00                                                                          800.00

    600.00                                                                          600.00

    400.00                                                                          400.00

    200.00                                                                          200.00
                 59.79 84.66                                                                     59.79 84.66

      0.00                                                                             0.00
                  2020 Jan                2020 Feb              2020 Mar                          2020 Jan               2020 Feb              2020 Mar

                       Chinese Carriers      Foreign Carrier                                          Chinese Carriers      Foreign Carrier

                       *Calculated with an average fare of USD 250 (based on traffic/financial reports of CA, CZ and MU)
Source: ICAO estimates based on OAG scheduled data                            43
Potential economic loss in tourism (2018)

                                                                                                         Top 5 economically-impacted States due to loss of Chinese
                                                                                                                                tourists*

                                                                                                                                                                                             Potential economic loss in billion of USD
                                                                                                    12        9.5                                                                       10
                                                                                                                               8.1                                                      9

                                                                       Million of Chinese tourist
                                                                                                    10                                                                                  8
                                                                                                            9.8
                                                                                                     8                                                                                  7
                                                                                                                             8.4                                                        6
                                                                                                     6                                                                                  5
                                                                                                                                                                                        4
                                                                                                     4                                            2.9
                                                                                                                                                                                        3
                                                                                                                                                                   2.1
                                                                                                     2                                          3.0                               1.4   2
                                                                                                                                                             2.2                        1
                                                                                                                                                                             1.4
                                                                                                     0                                                                                  0
                                                                                                          Thailand          Japan       United States      France         Australia
                                                                                                                  Million of Chinese tourists           Potential economic loss

        • Data excludes Special Administrative Regions (SAR) of China (Hong Kong SAR and Macao SAR) and Taiwan, Province of China
        • Data for 2018

Source: UNWTO and ICAO estimates                                                                44
Coordination with other UN entities

                                      45
•   Coordination with other UN entities, in particular WHO and
    UNWTO
•   Role of IATA and ACI
•   Actions taken by ICAO secretariat
•   Possible action by the FALP/12
•   Requested actions from Council

                                                                 46
Coordination with other UN entities,
                                                               in particular WHO

•   WHO is the lead UN organization in managing the coronavirus outbreak.

•   The Director General of WHO declared the outbreak a Public Health Emergency of
    International Concern (PHEIC) on 30 January 2020, on basis of advice provided by the
    Emergency Committee.

•   The Emergency Committee is made up of international experts who provide technical advice
    to the WHO Director-General in the context of a PHEIC.

•   ICAO participated in the EC meeting; and continues to coordinate closely with the WHO
    providing technical and operational support.

•   ICAO further shares information with CAPSCA UN partners including WFP, UNWTO, UNDP and
    OCHA.

                                                                                               47
Coordination with other UN entities,
                                     in particular UNWTO

• Coordination with UNWTO:
  – Input to be received from UNWTO latest by
    Thursday cob.

                                                         48
Role of ICAO, IATA and ACI

•   ICAO facilitates information sharing with member States of CAPSCA; as well as IATA, ACI,
    EACCC, EASA, CDC and the FAA.
•   Information is shared bilaterally between ICAO and the entities.
•   Information shared by ICAO with international and regional organizations is further
    shared by them with their respective stakeholders.
•   ICAO also participates in teleconferences arranged by relevant stakeholders to assess
    their needs and provide further information.
•   All relevant and confirmed information is published on the CAPSCA website.
•   WHO, ICAO, IATA and ACI collaborate to develop aviation-specific guidelines in
    management of the outbreak – current activity is the development of an aviation
    Questions and Answers document for publication on the WHO website.

                                                                                           49
Actions taken by ICAO secretariat

Date                   Event
6 January 2020         First communication to CAPSCA members on the China Pneumonia outbreak
20 January 2020        Commencement of daily Coronavirus update messages to CAPSCA members
22 – 23 January 2020   ICAO participates in first WHO Emergency Committee (EC) Meeting
23 January 2020        EC statement distributed through CAPSCA network
24 January 2020        ICAO issues first Electronic Bulletin
29 January 2020        Teleconference - ICAO, WHO, WEF, UNWTO, World Bank, travel & tourism industry
30 January 2020        ICAO participates in second WHO EC Meeting
30 January 2020        ICAO issues first press release
30 January 2020        ICAO issues second Electronic Bulletin
3 February 2020        Teleconference with UNWTO on the economic impact of Coronavirus
3 February 2020        Teleconference - ICAO, WHO, IATA and ACI on joint aviation-specific coronavirus guidelines
4 February 2020        ICAO issues second press release
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Further actions by the ICAO Secretariat

• Ensure, in the ongoing revision of Doc 9957, The Facilitation Manual, the
  role of health authorities at international airportss is elaborated upon
  fully,

• Disseminate a State letter (by 1Q/2020), reminding States of their
  obligation to establish National Air Transport Facilitation Programmes
  (Standard 8.17, Annex 9), and to ensure in their implementation of such
  Programmes, to effectively include health authorities in their national
  programmes, described in Doc 10042, Model National Air Transport
  Facilitation Programme.

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Annex 9
                                    Requested actions from FALP, ATC and Council

• Consolidate and merge, into one (new) Chapter in Annex 9 all “health-related”
  SARPs, for ease of reference and use

• Consider upgrading, to a Standard, current RP 8.15.1 (use of the “Public Health
  Passenger Locator Form” – model found in Appendix 13), in order to ensure
  that the forms are disseminated on flights and collected and used by States
  (health authorities) to trace passengers who may have been exposed to a
  communicable disease on flight.

• Recommend the review of Appendix 13 to Annex 9 (Public Health Passenger
  Locator Form) and consider upgrading it from a Recommendation to a
  Standard.

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Requested actions from Council

•   Strongly encourage multi-sector communication and collaboration, specifically
    between the aviation and public health sectors; in order to ensure that WHO is
    promptly informed of any travel restrictions or additional travel measures.

•   Strongly urge States to become members of CAPSCA to assist with the prevention of
    the spread of disease.

•   Consider making available more resources to further promote and enhance the work
    of CAPSCA.

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Reference documents

• Annex 9, 15th Edition (2017), up to and including Amendment
  27 (Feb 2020)
  Health-related provisions of Annex 9 — Facilitation

• A Background of Recent Health Provisions in Annex 9

• WHO Situation Report – 15 on Coronavirus (Data as reported
  by 4 February 2020)
  https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-
  2019/situation-reports
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