Effects of Coronavirus on Civil Aviation - Air Transport Committee, 219th Session 7 February 2020 - ACI Asia-Pacific
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Air Transport Committee, 219th Session 7 February 2020 Effects of Coronavirus on Civil Aviation Montréal, Canada
Outline • ICAO Regulatory Framework: • Chicago Convention and Annexes 6, 9, 11, 14 and 15 • Assembly Resolutions in Force • Economic Impact • Coordination with Other UN entities 2
Air traffic has been vulnerable to external factors including disease outbreaks Source: ICAO Annual Report of the Council Scheduled commercial traffic 3 Total (international and domestic) services
ICAO Regulatory framework • Chicago Convention: Articles 13, 14 and 22 • Annexes: 1. Annex 6 – Operation of Aircraft 2. Annex 9 – Facilitation 3. Annex 11 – Air Traffic Services 4. Annex 14 – Aerodromes 5. Annex 15 – Aeronautical Information Services • Facilitation Manual – Doc 9957 • Model National Air Transport Facilitation Programme – Doc 10042 • Procedures for AN Services – Air Traffic Management (PANS-ATM, Doc 4444) 5
ICAO Regulatory framework Chicago Convention Article 13, Entry and clearance regulations The laws and regulations of a contracting State as to the admission to or departure from its territory of passengers, crew or cargo of aircraft, such as regulations relating to entry, clearance, immigration, passports, customs, and quarantine shall be complied with by or on behalf of such passengers, crew or cargo upon entrance into or departure from, or while within the territory of that State. 6
ICAO Regulatory framework Chicago Convention Article 14, Prevention of spread of disease Each contracting State agrees to take effective measures to prevent the spread by means of air navigation of cholera, typhus (epidemic), smallpox, yellow fever, plague, and such other communicable diseases as the contracting States shall from time to time decide to designate, and to that end contracting States will keep in close consultation with the agencies concerned with international regulations relating to sanitary measures applicable to aircraft. Such consultation shall be without prejudice to the application of any existing inter-national convention on this subject to which the contracting States may be parties. 7
ICAO Regulatory framework Chicago Convention Article 22, Facilitation of formalities Each contracting State agrees to adopt all practicable measures, through the issuance of special regulations or otherwise, to facilitate and expedite navigation by aircraft between the territories of contracting States, and to prevent unnecessary delays to aircraft, crews, passengers and cargo, especially in the administration of the laws relating to immigration, quarantine, customs and clearance. 8
ICAO Regulatory framework Relevant SARPs and Guidance Material The Standards and Recommended Practices (SARPs) that relate to the preparedness and management of public health emergencies are contained in: • Annex 6 to the Chicago Convention – regarding universal precaution kits; • Annex 9 – regarding compliance with the International Health Regulations and facilities required for public health measures at airports; • Annex 11 – regarding contingency plans in the event of potential disruption of services; • Annex 14 – regarding aerodrome emergency plan for public health emergencies; and • Annex 15 – regarding requirements for flight crew advisories; The related guidance material is contained in: • Facilitation Manual; • Model National Air Transport Facilitation Programme; and • PANS-ATM – regarding procedures for reporting suspected communicable diseases. 9
ICAO Regulatory framework Relevant SARPs and Guidance Material Annex 6 – Operation of Aircraft Annex 6 Part I, Chapter 6 - An aeroplane shall be equipped with: • Accessible and adequate medical supplies; • Recommendation.— Medical supplies should comprise: 1) one or more first-aid kits for the use of cabin crew in managing incidents of ill health; 2) for aeroplanes required to carry cabin crew as part of the operating crew, one universal precaution kit (two for aeroplanes authorized to carry more than 250 passengers) for the use of cabin crew members in managing incidents of ill health associated with a case of suspected communicable disease, or in the case of illness involving contact with body fluids; 10
ICAO Regulatory framework Relevant SARPs and Guidance Material Annex 6 – Operation of Aircraft (continued) Annex 6 Part I, Chapter 6 Attachment A (Medical Supplies) • 2.2 Universal precaution kits: – Additional kit(s) should be made available at times of increased public health risk, such as during an outbreak of a serious communicable disease having pandemic potential. Annex 6 Part I, Chapter 12 (Cabin Crew) • 12.4 Training: – Training programmes shall ensure that each cabin crew is drilled and capable in the use of emergency and life-saving equipment required to be carried, such as […] first- aid and universal precaution kits – Guidance in Doc 10002 (Cabin Crew Safety Training Manual) Chapter 8 (Cabin Health & First-aid Training) addresses cabin crew procedures for the UPK, signs and symptoms, and action required when dealing with a suspected or actual case of a communicable disease on board 11
Regulatory framework Annex 9 – Facilitation ● “Health-related” SARPs: in Annex 9 since its 1st Edition (1949) → aircraft disinsection → aircraft disinfection → WHO’s International Health Regulations (IHR) → Requirements: maintenance of public health, animal and plant quarantine at international airports → (standard) vaccination certificates ● CHAPTER 1: 5 Definitions
Regulatory framework ● Annex 9 – Facilitation CHAPTER 1: 5 Definitions • Public health emergency of international concern. An extraordinary event which is determined, as provided in the International Health Regulations (2005) of the World Health Organization: (i) to constitute a public health risk to other States through the international spread of disease and (ii) to potentially require a coordinated international response. • Public health risk. A likelihood of an event that may affect adversely the health of human populations, with an emphasis on one which may spread internationally or may present a serious and direct danger.
ICAO Regulatory framework Relevant SARPs and Guidance Material Annex 9 (continued) ●CHAPTER 2: Entry and Departure of Aircraft → SARPs relating to the IHR → SARPs relating to Disinsection & Disinfection of aircraft ● CHAPTER 3: Entry and Departure of Persons and their Baggage → 1 Standard on international certificates of vaccination or prophylaxis ● CHAPTER 6: International Airports — Facilities and Services For Traffic → SARPs on facilities required for implementation of public health, emergency medical relief, and animal and plant quarantine measures → SARPs on facilities required for clearance controls and operation of control services 14
Regulatory framework ● Annex 9 – Facilitation CHAPTER 2: Entry and Departure of Aircraft • 2.4 Contracting States shall not prevent an aircraft from calling at any international airport for public health reasons unless such action is taken in accordance with the International Health Regulations (2005) of the World Health Organization. • 2.4.1 Recommended Practice.— In cases where, in exceptional circumstances, air transport service suspensions on public health grounds are under consideration, Contracting States should first consult with the World Health Organization and the health authority of the State of occurrence of the disease before taking any decision as to the suspension of air transport services.
Regulatory framework ● Annex 9 – Facilitation CHAPTER 2: Entry and Departure of Aircraft • 2.5 If, in response to a specific public health risk or a public health emergency of international concern, a Contracting State is considering introduction of health measures in addition to those recommended by WHO, it shall do so in accordance with the International Health Regulations (2005), including but not limited to Article 43, which states, in part, that when determining whether to implement the additional health measures States Parties shall base their determinations upon: • (a) scientific principles; (b) available scientific evidence of a risk to human health, or where such evidence is insufficient, the available information including from WHO and other relevant intergovernmental organizations and international bodies; and (c) any available specific guidance or advice from WHO.
Regulatory framework ● Annex 9 – Facilitation CHAPTER 2: Entry and Departure of Aircraft • Note 1.— Standard 2.5 applies only to those situations where there is an official IHR (2005) Temporary Recommendation (i.e. in the context of a declared public health emergency of international concern), or a Standing • Recommendation in effect. These requirements in Article 43 can also apply to other contexts involving additional measures applied to international traffic (including aircraft), such as IHR Articles 23 2), 27 1) and 28. • Note 2.— Article 43 of the IHR (2005) also requires that a State that implements additional measures thereunder that significantly interfere with international traffic is required to provide to WHO the public health and scientific rationale for such measures.
Regulatory framework ● Annex 9 – Facilitation CHAPTER 2: Entry and Departure of Aircraft • 2.5.1 Recommended Practice.— Any State impacted by a measure taken under Standard 2.4, or a suspension as described in Recommended Practice 2.4.1, should, where appropriate, request the State implementing such a measure to consult with it. The purpose of such consultations would be to clarify the scientific information and public health rationale underlying the measure and to find a mutually acceptable solution.
Regulatory framework Annex 9 (continued) ● CHAPTER 8: Facilitation Provisions Covering Specific Subjects → SARPs on the implementation of international health regulations and related provisions — Requirement for pilot-in-command to report suspected case of communicable disease to air traffic control — Definition of communicable disease → 1 Standard on communicable disease outbreak national aviation plan ● Appendix 1: General Declaration (includes declaration of health) ● Appendix 13: Public Health Passenger Locator Form (for passengers to complete in the event of suspected communicable disease on board)
Regulatory framework ● Annex 9 – Facilitation CHAPTER 8: • F. Communicable disease outbreak national aviation plan • 8.16 A Contracting State shall establish a national aviation plan in preparation for an outbreak of a communicable disease posing a public health risk or public health emergency of international concern. • Note 1.— Guidance in developing a national aviation plan may be found on the ICAO website on the Aviation Medicine page. • Note 2.— Annex 11 — Air Traffic Services and Annex 14 — Aerodromes, Volume I — Aerodrome Design and Operations require air traffic services and aerodromes to establish contingency planning or aerodrome emergency plans, respectively, for public health emergencies of international concern.
ICAO Regulatory framework Relevant SARPs and Guidance Material Annex 11 – Air Traffic Services 2.32 Contingency arrangements Air traffic services authorities shall develop and promulgate contingency plans for implementation in the event of disruption, or potential disruption, of air traffic services and related supporting services in the airspace for which they are responsible for the provision of such services. Such contingency plans shall be developed with the assistance of ICAO as necessary, in close coordination with the air traffic services authorities responsible for the provision of services in adjacent portions of airspace and with airspace users concerned. 21
ICAO Regulatory framework Relevant SARPs and Guidance Material Annex 14 – Aerodromes • Annex 14, Volume I, Chapter 9 contains SARPs on aerodrome emergency planning, including for public health emergencies. 9.1.2 The aerodrome emergency plan shall provide for the coordination of the actions to be taken in an emergency occurring at an aerodrome or in its vicinity. 9.1.3 The plan shall coordinate the response or participation of all existing agencies which, in the opinion of the appropriate authority, could be of assistance in responding to an emergency. 22
ICAO Regulatory framework Relevant SARPs and Guidance Material Annex 15 – Aeronautical Information Services Chapter 6: Aeronautical Information Updates 6.2.6 Recommendation.— The regulated system (AIRAC) should be used for the provision of information relating to the establishment and withdrawal of, and premeditated significant changes in, the circumstances listed below: … c) customs, immigration and health services; 23
ICAO Regulatory framework Relevant SARPs and Guidance Material Procedures for Air Navigation Services - Air Traffic Management (PANS-ATM, Doc 4444) 16 Miscellaneous Procedures 16.6 Notification of suspected communicable diseases, or other public health risk, on board an aircraft – Flight crew procedures – Air traffic services (ATS) unit procedures 24
ICAO Regulatory framework Assembly Resolutions A35-12 (2004): Protection of the Health of Passengers and Crews and the Prevention of the Spread of Communicable Disease through International Travel A37-13 (2010): Prevention of spread of communicable disease through air travel A40-14 (2019): Mitigation of the spread of disease through, inter alia, aircraft disinsection and vector control methods, and the importance of CAPSCA (Collaborative Arrangement for the prevention and Management of Public Health Events in Civil Aviation) for implementation 25
Economic Impact Traffic and Revenue Impact Analysis 26
Air traffic has been vulnerable to external factors including disease outbreaks Source: ICAO Annual Report of the Council Scheduled commercial traffic 27 Total (international and domestic) services
What can we learn from past experience? Ebola outbreak 2014 Source: ICAO Information paper 2014 28
What can we learn from past experience? SARS, Aviation flue, MERS History shows that SARS has the most serious impact on traffic. At the height of the outbreak (May 2003), monthly RPKs of Asia-Pacific airlines were 35% lower than their pre-crisis levels. Overall in 2003, Asia-Pacific airlines lost 8% of annual RPKs and $6 billion of revenues. Source: IATA Economics’ Chart of the Week (24 January 2020) 29
Chinese international traffic doubled since 2003 SARS spread Total number of passenger moved through Chinese airports 2003-2018 Passengers move to/from Chinese airports (million of passengers) 2018 vs 2003 900 1,400 800 Annual average 1,266 114 700 growth rate: 9.6% 1,200 1,148 1,016 600 1,000 916 500 832 800 755 400 680 621 702 600 559 300 SARS 200 400 336 50 259 100 187 138 200 0 2003 2018 - Domestic passengers International Passengers 2003 2006 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: ICAO-ACI Airport traffic data. 30
Air connectivity of China Source: ICAO-ICM MIDT data 31
Air connectivity of Wuhan airport Source: ICAO-ICM MIDT data 32
Number of international scheduled seats of airlines from/to China (January 2019 to December 2019) 10,000,000 9,000,000 • Average monthly seats 8,000,000 offered by Chinese carriers: 9.0 million 7,000,000 (52% share) 6,000,000 • Average monthly seats offered by foreign 5,000,000 carriers: 8.1 million 4,000,000 (48% share) 3,000,000 2,000,000 Foreign Carriers 1,000,000 Chinese Carriers - *Data excludes Special Administrative Regions (SAR) of China (Hong Kong SAR and Macao SAR) and Taiwan, Province of China Source: OAG Scheduled data 33
Number of international scheduled seats of airlines from/to China (2020 1Q originally-planned) (million of seats) 11.00 10.22 10.00 9.45 9.11 9.00 8.48 8.36 7.87 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 - Jan-2020 Feb-2020 Mar-2020 Foreign Carriers Chinese Carriers * Data excludes Special Administrative Regions (SAR) of China (Hong Kong SAR and Macao SAR) and Taiwan, Province of China Source: OAG Scheduled data 34
Number of international scheduled seats of airlines from/to China (YoY growth rate) Year-over-year seat capacity growth from/to China: January 2019 to March 2020 20% 16.6% 15.7% 14.5% 14.7% 15% 13.3% 12.8% 13.4% 13.1% 13.3% 12.9% 12.5% YoY seat 11.9% evolution_Chinese 10.5% Carriers 10% 8.6% 8.1% 7.3% 7.6% YoY seat 4.9% 5.2% evolution_Foreign 5% 4.0% Carriers 2.4% 2.7% 1.3% 1.8% 1.6% 1.6% 1.4% 0.9% -3.0% -0.7% 0% 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR -5% Originally-planned -10% * Data excludes Special Administrative Regions (SAR) of China (Hong Kong SAR and Macao SAR) and Taiwan, Province of China Source: OAG scheduled data 35
Outbreak of coronavirus caused a substantial setback in flight bookings for Chinese New Year period Source: forwardkeys.com 36
Airlines suspended scheduled flights to/from China (announced since late January 2020) Airlines with service cancelled JC (Cambodia) Aeromexico Air Seoul, Inc Delta Air Lines Oman Air SAS Scandinavian Airlines Urumqi Airlines International Airlines Pakistan International Air Algerie Alitalia Donghai Airlines Jetstar Asia Saudi Arabian Airlines Vietjet Air Airlines Air Astana American Airlines Egyptair Jetstar Asia China PAL Express Scoot Vietnam Airlines Austrian Airlines AG dba Air Canada El Al Israel Airlines Jetstar Pacific Airlines Peach Aviation Limited Shandong Airlines Virgin Atlantic Airways Austrian Air France Azur Air Eznis Airways KLM-Royal Dutch Airlines Philippine Airlines Siberia Airlines Yakutia Air India British Airways Finnair Lanmei Airlines Qantas Airways Swiss Air Koryo Cambodia Airways Co. Ltd Garuda Indonesia LOT - Polish Airlines Qatar Airways Turkish airlines Lufthansa German Air Madagascar Cambodia Angkor Air Himalaya Airlines Royal Air Maroc T'way Air Airlines MIAT - Mongolian Ukraine International Air Mauritius Cebu Pacific Air Iberia Royal Brunei Airlines Airlines Airlines Myanmar Airways Air New Zealand Chongqing Airlines IndiGo Rwandair United Airlines International Source: Routes Online (as of 5 February 2020) 37
Airlines reduced scheduled flights to/from China (announced since late January 2020) Airlines with service reduced Air Busan Cathay Pacific Airways HK Express Malaysia Airlines Singapore Airlines Uni Airways Air China China Airlines Hong Kong Airlines Malindo Airways Spring Airlines Ural Airlines Air Macau China Eastern Airlines Japan Airlines Mandarin Airlines Spring Airlines Japan Xiamen Airlines Company Air Niugini China Southern Airlines Jeju Airlines Nok Air Srilankan Airlines AirAsia Eastar Jet Jetstar Japan Philippines AirAsia Inc. STARLUX Airlines Airasia X Emirates Jin Air Qingdao Airline Co, Ltd Thai Air Asia X All Nippon Airways Ethiopian Airlines Juneyao Airlines Shanghai Airlines Thai AirAsia Asiana Airlines Etihad Airways Kenya airways Shenzhen Airlines Thai Airways International Batik Air EVA Airways Korean Air Sichuan Airlines Thai Lion Air Cathay Dragon Hainan Airlines Lion Air SilkAir Tigerair Taiwan Co. Ltd Source: Routes Online (as of 5 February 2020) 38
Scenario analysis in comparison with originally-planned airline schedules (1Q 2020) Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Assumptions Seat capacity reduction Seat capacity reduction Passenger load factor Passenger load factor from originally-planned from originally-planned Chinese carriers 3% 78% 3% 78% January 2020 Foreign carriers 5% 80% 5% 80% Chinese carriers 39% 78% 39% 58% February 2020 Foreign carriers 77% 80% 77% 66% Chinese carriers 40% 78% 49% 64% March 2020 Foreign carriers 77% 80% 84% 70% Scheduled international passengers to/from Seat capacity reduction will be escalated by 7 to 10% in Seat capacity reduction will continue at almost the mainland China only (i.e. excluding Hong Kong March 2020; same percentage from February to March 2020; Special Administrative Region (SAR) of China, Loat factor will be decreased by 14 to 20% in February Loat factor for 1Q 2020 is fixed at the reported results Macao SAR of China and Taiwan, Province of 2020 and by 10 to 14% in March 2020 compared to in 2018 China) January 2020 39
Scenario 1: Seat capacity reduction compared to 2019 Source: ICAO estimates based on OAG scheduled data 40
Scenario 2: Seat capacity reduction compared to 2019 Source: ICAO estimates based on OAG scheduled data 41
Reduction of approx. 16.4 to 19.6 million passengers for 1Q 2020 5.97 8.43 10.39 11.22 Source: ICAO estimates based on OAG scheduled data 42
Approx. USD 4.1 to 4.9 billion potential loss of revenue for 1Q 2020 Scenario 1 revenue loss (USD, million)* Scenario 2 revenue loss (USD, million)* 1,400.00 1,400.00 1,293.83 1,293.83 1,213.97 1,213.97 1,200.00 1,200.00 1,000.00 1,000.00 701.93 730.93 701.93 730.93 800.00 800.00 600.00 600.00 400.00 400.00 200.00 200.00 59.79 84.66 59.79 84.66 0.00 0.00 2020 Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar 2020 Jan 2020 Feb 2020 Mar Chinese Carriers Foreign Carrier Chinese Carriers Foreign Carrier *Calculated with an average fare of USD 250 (based on traffic/financial reports of CA, CZ and MU) Source: ICAO estimates based on OAG scheduled data 43
Potential economic loss in tourism (2018) Top 5 economically-impacted States due to loss of Chinese tourists* Potential economic loss in billion of USD 12 9.5 10 8.1 9 Million of Chinese tourist 10 8 9.8 8 7 8.4 6 6 5 4 4 2.9 3 2.1 2 3.0 1.4 2 2.2 1 1.4 0 0 Thailand Japan United States France Australia Million of Chinese tourists Potential economic loss • Data excludes Special Administrative Regions (SAR) of China (Hong Kong SAR and Macao SAR) and Taiwan, Province of China • Data for 2018 Source: UNWTO and ICAO estimates 44
Coordination with other UN entities 45
• Coordination with other UN entities, in particular WHO and UNWTO • Role of IATA and ACI • Actions taken by ICAO secretariat • Possible action by the FALP/12 • Requested actions from Council 46
Coordination with other UN entities, in particular WHO • WHO is the lead UN organization in managing the coronavirus outbreak. • The Director General of WHO declared the outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) on 30 January 2020, on basis of advice provided by the Emergency Committee. • The Emergency Committee is made up of international experts who provide technical advice to the WHO Director-General in the context of a PHEIC. • ICAO participated in the EC meeting; and continues to coordinate closely with the WHO providing technical and operational support. • ICAO further shares information with CAPSCA UN partners including WFP, UNWTO, UNDP and OCHA. 47
Coordination with other UN entities, in particular UNWTO • Coordination with UNWTO: – Input to be received from UNWTO latest by Thursday cob. 48
Role of ICAO, IATA and ACI • ICAO facilitates information sharing with member States of CAPSCA; as well as IATA, ACI, EACCC, EASA, CDC and the FAA. • Information is shared bilaterally between ICAO and the entities. • Information shared by ICAO with international and regional organizations is further shared by them with their respective stakeholders. • ICAO also participates in teleconferences arranged by relevant stakeholders to assess their needs and provide further information. • All relevant and confirmed information is published on the CAPSCA website. • WHO, ICAO, IATA and ACI collaborate to develop aviation-specific guidelines in management of the outbreak – current activity is the development of an aviation Questions and Answers document for publication on the WHO website. 49
Actions taken by ICAO secretariat Date Event 6 January 2020 First communication to CAPSCA members on the China Pneumonia outbreak 20 January 2020 Commencement of daily Coronavirus update messages to CAPSCA members 22 – 23 January 2020 ICAO participates in first WHO Emergency Committee (EC) Meeting 23 January 2020 EC statement distributed through CAPSCA network 24 January 2020 ICAO issues first Electronic Bulletin 29 January 2020 Teleconference - ICAO, WHO, WEF, UNWTO, World Bank, travel & tourism industry 30 January 2020 ICAO participates in second WHO EC Meeting 30 January 2020 ICAO issues first press release 30 January 2020 ICAO issues second Electronic Bulletin 3 February 2020 Teleconference with UNWTO on the economic impact of Coronavirus 3 February 2020 Teleconference - ICAO, WHO, IATA and ACI on joint aviation-specific coronavirus guidelines 4 February 2020 ICAO issues second press release 50
Further actions by the ICAO Secretariat • Ensure, in the ongoing revision of Doc 9957, The Facilitation Manual, the role of health authorities at international airportss is elaborated upon fully, • Disseminate a State letter (by 1Q/2020), reminding States of their obligation to establish National Air Transport Facilitation Programmes (Standard 8.17, Annex 9), and to ensure in their implementation of such Programmes, to effectively include health authorities in their national programmes, described in Doc 10042, Model National Air Transport Facilitation Programme. 51
Annex 9 Requested actions from FALP, ATC and Council • Consolidate and merge, into one (new) Chapter in Annex 9 all “health-related” SARPs, for ease of reference and use • Consider upgrading, to a Standard, current RP 8.15.1 (use of the “Public Health Passenger Locator Form” – model found in Appendix 13), in order to ensure that the forms are disseminated on flights and collected and used by States (health authorities) to trace passengers who may have been exposed to a communicable disease on flight. • Recommend the review of Appendix 13 to Annex 9 (Public Health Passenger Locator Form) and consider upgrading it from a Recommendation to a Standard. 52
Requested actions from Council • Strongly encourage multi-sector communication and collaboration, specifically between the aviation and public health sectors; in order to ensure that WHO is promptly informed of any travel restrictions or additional travel measures. • Strongly urge States to become members of CAPSCA to assist with the prevention of the spread of disease. • Consider making available more resources to further promote and enhance the work of CAPSCA. 53
Reference documents • Annex 9, 15th Edition (2017), up to and including Amendment 27 (Feb 2020) Health-related provisions of Annex 9 — Facilitation • A Background of Recent Health Provisions in Annex 9 • WHO Situation Report – 15 on Coronavirus (Data as reported by 4 February 2020) https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus- 2019/situation-reports 54
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