DCAP Climate Change in the Mackay Region - netdna-ssl.com
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DCAP Climate Change in the Mackay Region
Session outline • Introductions… • Current Queensland led RD&E in this area… • Climate trends… • Impacts on our region… • Adaptation opportunities… • The bottom line…
Drought and Climate Adaptation Program (DCAP) Objectives: Improving the capacity of producers to: • better prepare for and manage drought • better manage climate variability • adapt to a changing climate
Current DCAP Projects 1 – Improving products for grazing management 2 - Social research to enable adaptation 3 - Palaeoclimate data to plan for extreme events 4 – Improved seasonal forecasts for northern Australia 5 – Enhanced agriculture insurance systems 6 - Economics of improve drought management 7 – Improved forecasting in the vegetable industry 8 – Improving drought resilience in WQ 9 - Forecasting climate extremes in sugar and grazing
Australia has the world’s highest levels of year-to-year rainfall
variability
(100 years of data for Australia and generally also for the other countries)
Variability of Annual rainfall
20
18
16
Coefficient (%)
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
A ustralia S. A frica Germany France NZ India UK Canada China USA Russia
Country
(Love, 2005)
Especially in Northern Queensland… Ratio of relative rainfall variability… Nichols, et al 1997
Climate variability versus change
Source: Jones and Mearns (2005)
Global temperatures have increased (markedly)
(1950-2015) Relative to to the 1961-1990 baseline
2016
2017
9 out of the
10 hottest
years on
record have
all occurred
this century
State of the Climate Report 2016 (CSIRO and BOM)
Australian air and ocean temperatures have risen
Relative to to the 1961-1990 baseline
State of the Climate Report 2016 (CSIRO and BOM)Australian air temperatures have risen
Above average warming
State of the Climate Report 2016 (CSIRO and BOM)Australian sea levels are rising State of the Climate Report 2016 (CSIRO and BOM)
Increase in monsoonal
rainfall
Northern monsoon
rainfall over the
past 20 years
Northern Australia monsoonal rainfall
anomalyCC impact on heat stress
Percentage of days
Current heat stress
with heat stress
15-20%
65%
Heat stress 2.7oC warmer
50-80%
85%
5%
Howden et al. 1999
25%Climate analogues…
Future Climate for the Mackay/Whitsunday region
Substantial increases in average, maximum and minimum
temperatures
Very high confidence
Substantial increases in the temperature, frequency and duration of hot
days Very high confidence
Average sea level and height of extreme sea-level events will continue to rise
Very high confidence Warmer and more acidic oceans…
Increases in evapotranspiration in all seasons High confidence
Increased intensity of extreme rainfall High confidence
Less frequent but more intense tropical cyclones Medium confidence
Changes to rainfall are possible but unclear Low confidence
CSIRO & Bureau of Meteorology (2015) www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au
16Identifying impacts…? 1. In groups discuss possible impacts to your business/industry from increasing temperatures and evaporation, more variable rainfall, rising sea levels… (could be negative or positive impacts…??) 2. List impacts on paper provided using marker pens… 3. Identify at least three in the next 20 minutes (more if possible…) 4. Select your most significant impact from your list…
Impacts…
Industry Impacts for grazing and cropping
Temp rise/More hot days/Variable rainfall/Drought
Grazing Cropping
– Increased heat stress in • Increased demand for
stock/humans… irrigation…
• Distance stock will travel • Pests and diseases over
to water reduces… wintering…
• Grazing pressure
increases • Changed timing and
• Pasture composition reliability of plant growth…
changes and potential soil • New cropping
loss… opportunities…
– Pasture growth and
nutrition…Adaptive
capacity &
vulnerability of
different sectors
Agriculture
vulnerable at
warming of >3oC
Natural
ecosystems
vulnerable at
warming of >1.5oC
IPCC 2007Identifying adaptations…? 1. In groups discuss possible adaptation options to the impacts you described for your business/ industry… 2. List adaptations on paper provided using marker pens… 3. Identify adaptation options for at least one of the impacts you discussed in the next 20 minutes (more if possible…) 4. Select your most significant adaptation option from your list…
Adaptations…
Adaptation Options for the Sugar
Industry
• Increasing CO2
– Optimise crop inputs responding to increased growth
potential…
– Introduce legume fallows and cash crops…
• Changed rainfall patterns
– Improve water use efficiencies…
– Implement precision agriculture, conservation tillage
practices…
– Use and monitor seasonal climate forecast information…
– Breed and introduce resilient varieties…
• Increasing temperatures
– Investigate growing cane in historically frost prone areas…
– Control pests and diseases and have a biosecurity plan…
– Select more resilient varieties…Adaptation Options for the
Grazing Industry
• Increasing CO2
– Increase use of supplements and rumen modifiers…
– Introduce and maintain legumes in pastures to boost soil N…
• Changed rainfall patterns
– Maintain and manage strong perennial grass condition…
– Apply flexible stocking rates…
– Use and monitor seasonal climate forecast information…
– Manage invasive weeds…
• Increasing temperatures
– Plan and maintain water points to reduce distance travelled…
– Control pests and diseases and have a biosecurity plan…
– Select breeding lines which are highly adapted to manage heat
stress…Worked risk matrix example… Mareeba
Organisation
Element →
Crystal Sugar Production
Climate Impact Adaptation
Variable ↓
Crop loss (-) Cane varieties – GM
Increased Reduced profitability (-) Increased infrastructure investment
storm Infrastructure damage Change farming practices (spoon
(farms & mills) (-) drains)
intensity Increased erosion, nutrient
and loss and pesticide loss. (-)
duration Interaction (-ve or +ve): -ve IMPACT: High
Likelihood: Likely Adaptive Capacity: Low
Consequence: Major Vulnerability: High
IMPACT: HighResources… • DES regional Climate Change brochures • DES regional adaptation brochures • Climate change in Australia website • LongPaddock Climate change in Qld tab • State of the climate reports BoM • Heaps of others…
The bottom line… – Climate variability is already high – Climate variability is likely to increase with more extremes – Industry is already adapting – Look for opportunities – Current RD&E is working with industry
Thanks Neil.cliffe@daf.qld.gov.au
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