Climate-Smart Agriculture for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan
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Climate-Smart Agriculture for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan
This report is endorsed by the Secretary Agriculture, Livestock, Fisheries, and Cooperatives’ Department, Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Dr. Muhammad Israr, at a launch event hosted by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) on July 15, 2021 where he expressed his appreciation for the contributions of the FAO and the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT in developing a comprehensive guide for agricultural practitioners and policy makers to enhance agricultural productivity and build long- term climate change resilience for the sector in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Secretary Agriculture, Livestock, Fisheries, and Cooperatives’ Department Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Peshawar – Pakistan
Acknowledgements This Publication is a product of the collaborative effort by the Alliance of Bioversity International & CIAT (Alliance), the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the UK Government’s Department for International Development (DFID) to identify province-specific baselines on CSA in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. The document complements the CSA Profiles series developed between 2014 and 2016 by CIAT, CCAFS, the World Bank, and USAID for countries in Latin America, Asia and Africa. The document was prepared under the co-leadership of Godefroy Grosjean (Alliance) and James Giles (Alliance); It is based on a methodology prepared by CIAT, the World Bank and the Tropical Agricultural Research and Higher Education Center (CATIE) in 2014 and revisited in 2015, 2017 and 2018 by Andreea Nowak, Caitlin Corner-Dolloff, Miguel Lizarazo, Andy Jarvis, Evan Girvetz, Godefroy Grosjean, James, Giles, Felicitas Roehrig, Jennifer Twyman, Julian Ramirez, Carlos Navarro, Jaime Tarapues, Steve Prager, Carlos Eduardo Gonzalez (Alliance/CCAFS), Charles Spillane, Colm Duffy and Una Murray (National University Ireland Galway). Main authors: Vail Miller, James Giles, Muhammad Khan, Hira Mumtaz, Adam Savelli, and Godefroy Grosjean. Project leader for Asia: Godefroy Grosjean (Alliance) & James Giles (Alliance) Original graphics: Fernanda Rubiano (independent consultant) Design and layout: The Alliance and Fernanda Rubiano (independent consultant) This document should be cited as: Miller, V., Giles, J., Khan, M., Mumtaz, H., Savelli, A., Grosjean, G. 2021. Climate-Smart Agriculture in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. CSA Country Profiles for Asia Series. Alliance of Bioversity International & CIAT (Alliance); Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), FAO, Rome, 54p. Special thanks The authors thank Banaras Khan, Majid Khan, Rehmat Yazdani and Sajida Sultana (FAO) for their valuable comments on the document and support to the project. The project benefitted greatly from the support provided by Dr. Naseer Ahmed, Agricultural Research System, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Dr. Haroon Yousafzai, Climate Change Center, University of Agriculture, Peshawar.
Table of Contents
1 CLIMATE-SMART AGRICULTURE (CSA) HIGHLIGHTS 7
2 FOREWORD 7
3 NATIONAL CONTEXT 9
3.1 ECONOMIC RELEVANCE OF FARMING 9
3.2 LAND USE 9
3.3 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION SYSTEMS 10
3.4 FOOD SECURITY, NUTRITION, AND HEALTH 11
3.5 AGRICULTURAL GREENHOUSE GAS (GHG) EMISSIONS 12
3.6 CHALLENGES FOR THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR 12
3.6.1 Demographics 12
3.6.2 Spill-over effects of the American War on Terror 13
3.6.3 Water availability and usage 13
3.6.4 Mechanization, technology, and infrastructure 14
3.6.5 Access to credit 14
3.6.6 Research and capacity building 14
3.6.7 Gender 15
4 AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE CHANGE 15
4.1
PROJECTED CHANGES IN CLIMATE 15
4.2
NATURAL HAZARDS AND DISASTER RISK REDUCTION 17
4.2.1 Floods 17
4.2.2 Drought and heat stress 18
4.2.3 Pest and Crop Disease 19
4.2.4 Earthquakes, Landslides, and Avalanches 20
5 CSA PRACTICES 20
5.1 CROSSCUTTING 21
5.2 OILSEEDS 22
5.3 PULSES 24
5.4 WHEAT 25
5.5 FORAGE AND FODDER CROPS 27
5.6 MAIZE 27
5.7 SUGARCANE 30
5.8 RICE 31
5.9 VEGETABLES 31
5.10 FRUITS & NUTS 33
5.11 LIVESTOCK 36
6 INSTITUTIONS 39
7 POLICIES 42
8 FINANCING CSA 43
8.1 CURRENT FUNDING 43
8.2 POTENTIAL FUNDING 46
9 OUTLOOK 46
10 WORKS CITED 47
11 ANNEX 53
11.1 ANNEX 1: RECOMMENDED CROP VARIETIES 53
11.2 ANNEX 2: MAJOR INSECT/ PESTS OF KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA 58
Acronyms
ADP Annual Development Programme
AEZs Agro-Ecological Zones
AWD Alternate Wetting and Drying
AWOT American War on Terror
CIAT International Center for Tropical Agriculture
CPEC China-Pakistan Economic Corridor
CSA Climate-smart Agriculture
DA Department of Agriculture
DAE Directorate of Agriculture Extension
DFID Department for International Development
DRR Disaster Risk Reduction
FATA Federally Administered Tribal Areas
FFS Farmer Field School
FO Farmer Organization
FSC&RD Federal Seed Certification & Registration Department
GCF Green Climate Fund
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GHG Greenhouse Gas
GLOF Glacial Lake Outburst Floods
GoKP Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
GoP Government of Pakistan
HEIS High-efficiency Irrigation Systems
ha hectares
IDA International Development Association
IDP Internally Displaced People
INDC Intended Nationally Determined Contribution
IPM Integrated Pest Management
ISFM Integrated Soil Fertility Management
KPIAIP Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Irrigated Agriculture Improvement Project
MDPI Multi-Dimensional Poverty Index
MFSC Model Farm Service Centre
MOCC Ministry of Climate Change
MtCO2e Million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent
N.P.K Nitrogen, Phosphorus, Potash
NCCP National Climate Change Policy
NGO Non-governmental Organization
NI National Institutions
PDMA Provincial Disaster Management Authority
PS Production Systems
SCRI Sugar Crops Research Institute
SRI System of Rice Intensification
UNDP United Nations’ Development Programme
UNFAO United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization
UNFCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
WB World Bank
WUA Water User Associations
ZTBL Zarai Taraqiati Bank Limited
6 Climate-Smart Agriculture Profile of KP, Pakistan
1. Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) highlights
• Agriculture is central to the economic and cultural lives of the of these hazards, through greater variability in rainfall and
more than 35.5 million people living in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. higher temperatures.
Approximately 33% of the population is formally employed in
the agricultural sector, however an even greater share of the • Crosscutting CSA practices including the introduction
province’s rural population depends on crop and livestock of improved crop and livestock varieties, Integrated Pest
production for their livelihoods. Management (IPM), Integrated Soil Fertility Management
(ISFM), and updated agroecological zoning for improved
• In 2018, the Merged Areas—thirteen previously semi- crop suitability, were considered promising interventions to
autonomous administrative districts —were integrated support the agricultural sector in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
into Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. The Merged Areas are
amongst the most underdeveloped regions in Pakistan, with • Other commodity specific interventions that showed promise
poor levels of human development and high incidences of include silage making from fodder, seasonally adjusted
poverty, food insecurity, and malnutrition. planting times for maize, a System of Rice Intensification
(SRI) in rice, the establishment of regular orchards, and
• Farm sizes in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are amongst the smallest improved animal husbandry and nutritional management in
in Pakistan: 81% of farms are smaller than 5 ha, with a single livestock.
hectare of farmland supporting an average of 18 people.
Small farm sizes and low productivity contribute to food • The effective implementation and mainstreaming of the
insecurity, affecting nearly 30% of the population province- prioritized CSA activities will be contingent on farmers
wide, and up to 62% of those in the most vulnerable districts. receiving support in terms of knowledge and training in best
practices; organizing farmers and creating infrastructure
• Livestock including poultry, goats, sheep and cattle, and for improved markets; support for targeted research and
crops including grains, pulses, and fodder are the main dissemination of technology at the local level; and access to
subsistence commodities in the province, mostly grown financial support and subsidies for necessary inputs, tools,
in integrated systems. Cash crops of wheat, maize, and and machinery.
sugarcane are also produced in areas where there is sufficient
market access. • There are a number of policies in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa that
could facilitate greater CSA adoption, however their reach
• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is vulnerable to a range of slow and and implementation in some of the more remote districts
rapid onset hazards, including floods, droughts, heat stress, remains limited. With additional measures such as the
pest and disease outbreaks, avalanches, landslides, glacial scaling of Model Farm Service Centres (MFSC) and increased
lake outbursts, and earthquakes. Projected climatic changes extension needed to improve the delivery of government
are expected to increase the incidence and severity of many programmes in these areas.
2. Foreword
The climate-smart agriculture (CSA) concept reflects environmental, social, and economic challenges across
an ambition to improve the integration of agriculture productive landscapes. While the concept is new, and still
development and climate responsiveness. It aims to achieve evolving, many of the practices that make up CSA already
food security and broader development goals under a exist worldwide and are used by farmers to cope with various
changing climate and increasing global food demand. production risks [2]. Mainstreaming CSA requires critical
CSA initiatives sustainably increase productivity, enhance stocktaking of established and promising practices for the
resilience, and reduce/ remove greenhouse gases (GHGs). future, and of institutional and financial enablers for CSA
Planning is required to address trade-offs and synergies adoption. This profile provides a snapshot of a developing
between the three CSA pillars: productivity, adaptation, baseline created to initiate discussion, both within Khyber
and mitigation [1]. Crucially, the priorities of different Pakhtunkhw and globally, about entry points for investing in
countries and stakeholders are reflected to achieve more CSA at scale.
efficient, effective, and equitable food systems that address
Climate-Smart Agriculture Profile of KP, Pakistan 7
Pakistan is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate population (81.3%) live in rural areas and depend heavily on
change, with recurrent catastrophes making it the eight agriculture and extractive industries for their livelihoods [9].
most impacted country in terms of weather-related losses However, given Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s distinct geographical
(human and economic) from 2000 to 2019 [3]. The location and difficult-to-access terrain, it is more vulnerable
agricultural sector, which provides employment for 37% than other provinces to the adverse impacts caused by
of the population and contributes 23% to national Gross changes in climate, especially natural hazards. The province
Domestic Product (GDP), is frequently affected by periods of is susceptible to flooding, drought, extreme temperatures,
severe droughts and devastating floods [4,5]. Moreover, the landslides, and pest and disease outbreaks [10]. Moreover,
frequency and intensity of climate-related disasters, such the humanitarian crisis generated by the integration of
as floods, glacial lake outbursts, droughts and landslides, formerly marginalized peoples and returning emigrants
has increased in recent decades [6]. In the coming years it in the Merged Areas will likely compound the impacts of
is expected that the adverse effects of climate change will climatic hazards. The Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
continue to intensify in Pakistan, leaving it more vulnerable is therefore working with local and international stakeholders
to natural disasters, changes in average temperatures and to tackle climate change and its accompanying challenges
rainfall patterns and the geographical redistribution of pests that endanger the overall agricultural productivity and food
and diseases. This threatens vulnerable smallholder farming security of the region.
communities who are highly susceptible to economic and
climatic shocks, jeopardizing their food and nutrition security In recent years, Pakistan has seriously committed to
[7]. Climate change is also expected to aggravate social addressing climate change at the national, provincial, and
inequality by disproportionately increasing the exposure district level, including through the adoption of CSA. At
of disadvantaged groups to the adverse effects of climate the national level, Pakistan introduced a National Climate
change, increasing their susceptibility to damage caused by Change Policy (NCCP) which defines key adaptation and
climate change, and decreasing their ability to cope with the mitigation measures for vulnerable sectors of the economy.
damage [2]. In addition, Pakistan submitted its Intended Nationally
Determined Contribution (INDC) to the United Nations
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is Pakistan’s third largest province by Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC),
size and economy, and is located in the northwest region of committing to reduce emissions by 20% by 2030 at a cost
the country. In 2018, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa absorbed thirteen of USD $40 billion. Pakistan’s INDCs provide a medium- to
previously semi-autonomous administrative districts, long-term action plan for climate change adaptation and
including seven former Federally Administered Tribal Areas mitigation, focusing on securing water resources, building
(FATA) and six Frontier Regions, collectively referred to in climate resilient infrastructure, and strengthening the
this report as the Merged Areas. In the decade and a half agricultural sector, in part through the implementation of
prior to integration, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa made astounding a comprehensive CSA program. This CSA profile aims to
economic progress, including reducing poverty from 78% provide the groundwork for implementing the adaptation
in 2002 to below 20% in 2016, the largest decline amongst and mitigation actions detailed in Pakistan’s INDCs.
all four provinces of Pakistan [8]. The great majority of the
Box 1: Integration of Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) with
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
The integration of the FATA into Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province in 2018 added approximately 5 million
people, bringing the province’s total population to an estimated 35.5 million, as well as adding approximately
2.72 million hectares of mostly mountainous and remote terrain, bringing the province’s total land area to
10.17 million hectares [14]. By integrating the FATA, The Government of Pakistan aimed to help address
the inadequate humanitarian and livelihood conditions of the FATA population by providing citizens access
to better-developed public services and administrative structures. However, the integration of this highly
vulnerable community was initiated without a corresponding budgetary increase. With social expenditures
ballooning, development finance has become a critical issue in the province. According to the World
Bank, the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Tribal Districts Transition Framework–aimed at improving administrative
coordination and capacity in the Merged Areas and estimated to cost US$ 1.38 billion between 2018 and
2020–experienced a funding gap of USD $726 million, or over half of its required financing [12].
8 Climate-Smart Agriculture Profile of KP, Pakistan
3. Provincial Context Youth unemployment continues to be another growing
challenge in the country, increasing from 6.5% in 2007 to
3.1 Economic relevance of farming 9.1% in 2015 [18]. This is especially significant for the rural
agriculture-based economy that employs more than half
Agricultural development is of critical importance for both (around 53%) of Pakistan’s young adults [18]. The informal
the food security of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s residents and nature of this sector offers low prospects for upward social and
the province’s economic self-sufficiency. The total area economic mobility, with most workers either self-employed
under cultivation in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is 1.87 million or receiving low pay. The youth’s minimal participation in
hectares, constituting just 8.4% of the total area dedicated to agricultural studies at higher education level coupled with
agriculture in Pakistan [11]. Agriculture employs the largest few structured programs, reflects this expectation gap and
portion of the labour force of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa at 33% is a serious concern for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s agriculture-
[13]. However, the province province is heavily reliant on based economy [18].
its neighbours, especially Punjab, for commodities critical
to food security such as wheat, rice, citrus, and vegetables. Moreover, several districts in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
rank amongst the lowest in Pakistan in terms of youth
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province is home to about 35.5 million development. Specifically, northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
people, including several of Pakistan’s indigenous tribal and the Merged Areas were scored at 0.360 and 0.392,
communities such as the Koochis, Reari, Bakarwal, Kehal, compared to other regions of Pakistan that rank as high
Jogi, Kabootra, Sanyasi, and Kalash. Of the total population as 0.611 and 0.609 in eastern Punjab and Islamabad
81% reside in rural areas, increasing to 97% in the Merged respectively [18]. The average child receives 3.3 years of
Areas, with 27% falling below the national poverty line of US schooling in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and 1.8 years in the
$3.10/day [9]. In the Merged Areas, the economy is based Merged Areas, both below the national average of 4.5 years
on subsistence agriculture, livestock, fisheries and forestry, [18].
which provide some 97% of employment and livelihoods but
have been seriously affected by conflict in recent years [14].
People, agriculture, and livelihoods in Khyber
The United Nations’ Development Programme (UNDP) Pakhtunkhwa [9, 13]
National Human Development Report 2015 ranks
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as having a medium level of human
development, calculated at 0.628 against a national average
of 0.681. The Merged Areas, however, had an extremely low
level of human development, scoring just 0.216 [15]. The
discrepancy is further demonstrated by the UNDP’s Multi-
Dimensional Poverty Index (MDPI), which classified 73.7%
population of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s Merged Areas
as living in multi-dimensional poverty in 2014/15, while
the comparable figure for the whole Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Province stood at 49.2% in 2014/15 [17]. The Merged Areas
are thus considered one of the most underdeveloped regions
of Pakistan due to decades of marginalization, economic
deprivation, and political instability.
Economic relevance of farming in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa [5, 16]
In addition, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa lags behind other
provinces, such as Punjab and Sindh, in creating
government-administered schemes to uplift and empower
their youth [19]. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s current youth
programming, especially the Integrated Development
Policy (2014-18) pays sufficient attention to employment
matters, such as technical skills training and youth stipend
programs, however, lacks focus on crucial issues of general
and reproductive health, life skills, and civic and political
empowerment [19].
The combination of poor economic prospects and often
limited land and water resources drives many adolescents,
especially young men, to cross provincial and sometimes
Climate-Smart Agriculture Profile of KP, Pakistan 9national boundaries in search of more lucrative livelihood Food Programme in the Merged Areas found that overall
opportunities. Nearly 1 million people of Khyber 59% of households do not currently cultivate their lands,
Pakhtunkhwa are estimated to be working overseas [16]. while about 34% practice subsistence farming, and about
This out-migration of young males has knock-on effects 7% farm to generate income from selling the produce [25].
for women, children, and the elderly, who are often left to Throughout the district, the portion of arable land per plot is
manage small family farms, without the necessary farming often limited by the prevalence of steep rangeland, shallow
experience or the usual access to information and resources soil, slate and other mineral debris, and salinization [26].
that male farmers have access to [16]. However, a research This dearth of cultivated, and cultivable, land puts intense
study indicates that Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s young farmers pressure on existing farmland to support an average of 18
are more willing and able to adopt innovative farming people per hectare, or more than 40 people per irrigated
practices and technologies than their older counterparts hectare [27].
[20]. According to the study, young farmers use mobile
phones and the internet as a source of agricultural
information and could benefit from extension services and Land use in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa [11]
the dissemination of farming information via electronic
media [20]. By developing the agricultural sector, there is
potential to re-engage the youth in agricultural livelihoods in
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
3.2 Land use
Land used for agricultural production accounts for
55.4% Due to the rugged, mountainous terrain in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa province, only 1.87 million hectares -which
constitute less than 22% of the province’s total 8.35 million
hectares- are under cultivation [11]. An estimated 1.32
million additional hectares are considered cultivable waste,
or apt for cultivation but not currently developed [11]. Of
the cultivated land in the province 930,000 hectares (50%)
are irrigated, mostly through a network of government
and privately-owned canals [11]. When looking only at the
Merged Districts the cultivated area drops to 9%, of which
only 39% is irrigated [11]. Forests occupy approximately
1.23 million ha in the province, constituting a significant
portion of Pakistan’s 4.47 million ha of forested land [11].
Despite the importance of the forestry sector to the provincial
and national economy, deforestation and degradation
has resulted in the loss of an estimated 170,684 ha from
1990 to 2010 [21]. Deforestation in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
is driven by a number of diverse factors, including rapid
population growth, poverty, complicated tenure laws, and
mining and infrastructure projects. For example, in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa province large areas of forest reserves have
been lost due to urbanization, such as the encroachment
of Balakot city on the Masar forests; military activities in
Miran and D.I.Khan; and hydroelectric projects, such as
the Suki Kinari project in Kaghan [22]. However, effective
afforestation measures have been shown to have a major 3.3 Agricultural production systems
impact in reversing this trend: from 2014 to 2019 a national
replanting and regeneration project increased forest cover The two main cropping seasons in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa-
in the province by 6.3% [22]. and Pakistan more generally- are kharif, the first sowing
season starting from April-June with harvest during October-
In terms of agricultural land use, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is December, and rabi, the second sowing season, beginning
dominated by smallholder farmers with some of the smallest in October-December with harvesting in April-May [28]. In
average landholdings in the country. According to the most Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the kharif season is suitable for the
recent census data, 81% of landholdings are under 5 ha, warm weather cultivation of maize, sugarcane, rice and
with the average farm size of 1.4 ha, of which 1.2 ha is mung bean, whereas the rabi season produces wheat, gram,
cultivated, compared to a national average farm size of 2.6 barley, rape and mustard, while fruits, nuts and vegetables
ha with 2.1 ha cultivated [11, 23]. In the Merged Areas, the are grown year-round. By-products of these staple crops,
average plot size is even small, averaging only 0.85 ha [24]. including wheat straw, maize thinning, and stover, play a
Moreover, a 2019 livelihoods survey by the GoKP and World crucial role as fodder for livestock feed. Sugarcane, tobacco,
10 Climate-Smart Agriculture Profile of KP, Pakistanand fruit are the region’s primary cash crops [29]. province, including poultry, goats, sheep, cattle, and buffalo.
Approximately 16% of Pakistan’s goats and 12% of its sheep
Wheat, maize, and sugarcane are Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s are reared in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa [30]. Goats are typically
most important crops by harvested area. In 2018-19, raised by Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s poorer households in arid
approximately 1.32 million tonnes of wheat were produced areas, while buffalo are imported for dairy and also held as
on 739,570 hectares in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. After wheat, financial assets, as they maintain value and can quickly be
maize is Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s second most important converted to cash in times of need [30]. Both are valuable
cereal crop with an annual production of 904,548 tonnes as many of their parts are in high demand for a variety of
cultivated on 467,979 hectares, followed by sugarcane uses, including their meat, milk, wool, bones, horns, hair,
which is produced on approximately 110,991 hectares, fat, hides, and skin. Approximately 20% of the net income
producing 5.53 million tonnes [29]. For the majority of of farming households and landless families in Khyber
households in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, crop production is Pakhtunkhwa is generated by animal husbandry, and a
primarily for subsistence -focused on staple products like significant portion of households in Swat, Malakand, and
wheat and maize- with limited diversification into higher D.I. Khan districts depend primarily on livestock for their
value horticulture. Even still, total production is hindered by livelihoods [30]. Pastoral agriculture is practiced by Khyber
small farm sizes and low productivity, resulting in shortages Pakhtunkhwa’s Gujars, who typically graze sheep and goats
for dietary staples and reliance on imported market goods. on uncultivated areas and crop stubble in the winter, and
For example, a 2016 vulnerability analysis survey found that rangeland pastures during the summer [16]. Fish are also
only 22% of sampled households were able to meet their produced in the province’s cold, high-altitude lakes and
own cereal consumption needs from the rabi harvest [24]. streams, and in ponds and small bodies of water in lower
In addition to crop production, livestock rearing and dairy altitude areas.
production are central to livelihoods in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Agricultural Production Systems in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa [29]
3.4 Food security, nutrition, and health Unsurprisingly then, approximately 48% of children under
5 years of age in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa suffer from stunted
Food insecurity and malnutrition pose serious challenges to growth, which is 20% higher than the national average [32].
public health in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and their incidence Relatedly, 23% of children under 5 years of age suffer from
and intensity have been exacerbated by recurring climate wasting -a form of malnutrition that involves a low body
hazards in recent decades [31]. According to the National weight-to-height ratio- which indicates a higher prevalence
Nutrition Survey of 2018, approximately 70.9% of Khyber in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa than any other Pakistani province.
Pakhtunkhwa’s residents are considered food secure, Only 12.4% of children 6-23 months in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
however that number drops to 54.6% in the newly Merged are provided with the minimum dietary diversity of at least
Areas where approximately 21.7% of residents suffer from four food groups [32]. At the same time, over one quarter of
mild or moderate food insecurity and 23.7% are severely the reproductive-aged women (15-49 years) are considered
food insecure [32]. The most severely affected districts are to be overweight in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the Merged
Orakzai (62% of households are food insecure), D.I. Khan Areas (28.2% and 25.1%, respectively) [32].
(54%), and Lakki (46%) [25]. A common consequence
of food insecurity is a diet based on readily available and Poor nutrition and food insecurity are linked to food
affordable staples, like cereals, but lacking in nutritious, accessibility: a recent household survey by the World Food
diversified food sources such as fresh fruits and vegetables, Programme found that households in the Merged Areas
pulses, and meat [25]. In the Merged Areas, approximately spend a major proportion of their income on food purchases,
17% of households have low dietary diversity, however the forcing them to compromise on other needs, such as health
proportion jumps to 44% and 39% in districts of D.I. Khan care and education [25]. In total, about 67% of households
and Tank [25]. spend more than three-quarters of their income on food,
Climate-Smart Agriculture Profile of KP, Pakistan 11while 41% reported not having enough means to buy food sector. Rather, with continued population growth and
at market [25]. At the same time, compared to the national evolving dietary preferences that increasingly include meat
average (6%), a higher proportion of households in Khyber consumption, food demand will likely increase, placing
Pakhtunkhwa (15%) and the Merged Areas (39%) report additional pressure on the agricultural sector and driving
inadequate food availability in nearby markets [6]. commensurate increases in emissions.
Relatedly, food production in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Although data on GHG emissions does not exist at the
particularly in the Merged Areas is far below demand, which provincial level, the agricultural and forestry sectors will
means that most households depend on food purchased likely be responsible for the majority of emissions in Khyber
at market and are more susceptible to price volatility and Pakhtunkhwa, and that future demands on both sectors
market disruptions, both of which occur in the aftermath of will result in increased emissions unless appropriate
disasters [25]. Alongside the climate’s effects on economic mitigation measures are put in place. Within the agricultural
access to food, climate-related disasters affect physical sector, opportunities exist to reduce emissions in Khyber
access and make food access a critical issue. For instance, Pakhtunkhwa through the adoption of better practices,
following the monsoon rains of 2010, a rapid assessment particularly in livestock rearing and soil management. The
of affected communities in Swat district found that 54% of forestry sector likewise presents excellent opportunities for
the households in surveyed communities had only 1-3 days mitigation, with estimates placing Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
worth of food stock, mainly rice and wheat [33]. Poor food forests’ carbon stock at 153.3 MtCO2e and its annual carbon
stocks are linked to access and affordability constraints: sequestration potential at 6 MtCO2e [22].
food prices have been increasing steadily since 2008,
furthermore, between 2013 and 2016 most households in
the Merged Areas (59%) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (36%) Agricultural input use in Khyber
report being affected by a climate-related shock that forced Pakhtunkhwa [4, 11 ]
them to limit the quantity and quality of food they purchase
at the market [6].
Accessibility issues also impede the ability of the state and
NGOs to provide food aid and basic services [16]. Though
the situation is improving and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
exceeds national standards in some areas, many of Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa’s residents lack access to clean water and
sufficient sanitation. While most households in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa have access to improved sources of drinking
water (88%) and sanitation facilities (92.2%), that percentage
drops to 81.9% and 57% for households in the Merged
Areas [32]. This likely contributes to the Merged Area’s high
incidence of E. Coli contamination from drinking water
in 78.3% of households, which is more than double the
national average of 36% [32]. Along with other regions in
Pakistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is working to eliminate open
defecation, but progress in the newly merged districts is
slower [32].
3.6 Challenges for the agricultural sector
3.5 Agricultural greenhouse gas emissions The agricultural sector is central to the economy of Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa and the livelihoods of its population. With
Pakistan emitted approximately 443 million tons of carbon a large portion of the province’s population vulnerable to
dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) in 2017, with the energy sector multiple climatic and humanitarian crises, the agricultural
accounting for approximately 45% (199 MtCO2e), while sector has the potential to vastly improve food security
the agricultural sector represents 41% (175 MtCO2e) and and nutrition, while supporting economic development
land use change and forestry contribute around 6.5% [34]. and social stability. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has unique
More than half (61%) of all agricultural emissions between and diverse agro-climatic conditions that offer prime
1990-2017 were generated by enteric fermentation, with opportunities for the sustainable development of key staple
the remainder due to manure left on pastures (15%), and commercial products [24]. However, there are several
synthetic fertilizers (14%), rice cultivation (6%), and land key challenges facing the agricultural sector in Khyber
use and forestry (3%) [4]. While Pakistan’s contributions Pakhtunkhwa, including low levels of technology adoption;
currently constitute less than 1% of total global GHG limited infrastructure and market accessibility; and a rapidly
emissions, the country’s growth agenda projects a four- growing population facing a complex humanitarian crisis.
fold increase will top 1,603 MtCO2e e by 2030. While the
share of emissions from agriculture is projected to drop to 3.6.1 Demographics
around 29% by 2030, this is due to expected growth in the
industrial and land use change and forestry sectors, and Due to the mountainous, rugged nature of the province,
not due to significant mitigation efforts in the agricultural Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s rural population was already
12 Climate-Smart Agriculture Profile of KP, Pakistanamongst the most remote and underdeveloped in the and crisis-affected communities [36].
country, however, with the integration of the Merged Areas,
the province introduced an additional layer of vulnerability. • Labour: An estimated 3 million Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
In the Merged Areas and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s more residents fled their homes in search of refuge during
remote provinces, internally displaced and recently returned AWOT. Though many internally displaced persons
populations are especially at risk of climate hazards and who fled to safer districts have since returned home,
related food insecurity. As of August 2020, 1.18 million a large number remain displaced in camps and urban
people, or 23% of the total population of the Merged Areas, areas [36].
are facing crisis and emergency-level food insecurity due to
the prolonged conflict which has damaged their food and • Markets: The communities in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
livestock production, as well as infrastructure and markets most affected by the AWOT are remote, rural, and
[35]. At the same time, the province’s population is growing at reliant on agriculture and livestock production for
approximately 2.4%, making the need to ensure agricultural their livelihoods. Conflict and instability have severely
self-sufficiency especially pressing. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa damaged the agricultural sector in the region by
experiences a high level of out-migration, particularly of reducing livestock numbers, limiting access to
male youths, who leave to work in other provinces and key inputs such as seeds and equipment, and
internationally due to poor economic opportunities and disrupting local markets for produce. Additionally,
limited land and water resources at home, leaving the the physical destruction of markets, shops, transport
female family members to manage the farm [24]. infrastructure, and storage facilities has inhibited the
ability of producers to trade with wholesalers and
3.6.2 Spill-over effects of the American War on Terror consumers [36, 37].
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s location along the Afghan border Following continued instability in the region, the Government
and the political situation as the physical and administrative launched a series of counter insurgency operations (Zerb-e-
frontier of the Pakistani state, have placed the province at azb, Khyber One & Two) in 2014. As a result of the fighting
the centre of successive geopolitical conflicts including the up to 907,000 people had been newly displaced by the end
Soviet-Afghan war of the 1980s and the ongoing American of 2014, meaning that by July 2015 there were an estimated
War on Terror (AWOT). The direct and indirect effects of 1.56 million internally displaced people (IDPs) in Khyber
prolonged conflict have created significant challenges for Pakhtunkhwa & FATA, including some from previous years.
communities in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province and the This further impacted the agriculture sector as may families
former-FATA region, particularly the Malakand division that had to flee their farms altogether [38].
includes Swat, Dir, Malakand, Shangla and Buner districts
[36]. The AWOT has seriously damaged Pakistan’s physical 3.6.3 Water availability and usage
and economic infrastructure, with GDP growth slowing to
2% in 2009 [37]. Communities in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa have As Pakistan’s climate ranges from semi-arid to arid,
suffered from diminished livelihood opportunities, reduced approximately 90% of agricultural production is reliant on
access to basic services, and civilian casualties from terrorist irrigation, mostly supplied through the Indus Basin Irrigation
attacks and drone bombings [36]. As a result, up to 907,000 System [39]. Many of Pakistan’s poorest communities,
people had been newly displaced by the end of 2014, including those in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, reside in rain-fed,
meaning that by July 2015 there were an estimated 1.56 or barani, areas, where livelihood improvements, especially
million internally displaced people (IDPs) in the North-west, for small-scale farmers, are highly dependent on agricultural
including some from previous years. The reconstruction gains. In Swat and Buner, there are extensive flat-bottom
process that began in 2009 has slowly brought increased valleys that draw water from rain, snow, and groundwater
stability to the region. However, the AWOT’s impacts on irrigation channels [16]. Two thirds of croplands in these
life and commerce in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are enduring areas are irrigated during the summer season, whereas
and have knock-on effects for local agricultural production, half are irrigated during winter [16]. In Shangla and Dir,
including: where agro-climatic conditions are harsher and rainfall can
total less than 100mm per year, groundwater plays a more
• Education: Educational infrastructure—particularly crucial role [16]. Up to 40% of water transported through
girls’ schools—was severely impacted by the AWOT. communal watercourses is lost due to evaporation, spillage,
Greater efforts are needed to close the educational seepage, and leakage [40]. Therefore, there is a dire need for
gap with other provinces: the literacy rate in Khyber watercourse lining and improved management of existing
Pakhtunkhwa is 82.7% for boys and 45.1% for girls, resources; the combination of both has the potential to
but in the Merged Areas that falls to 59.4% and improve water conveyance efficiency by up to 80% [40].
13.6%, respectively; compared to the national rates
of 77.8% and 61.8%, respectively [36]. The above challenges are aggravated by poor resource
management. Where irrigated water is available, improper
• Health: Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s hospitals and clinics field drainage, over-irrigation, and water leakage often leads
often lack functioning equipment, medicine, and to waterlogging and salinization [40]. An estimated 20%
general supplies. While donor-funded programs aim of irrigation water applied in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa runs off
to build capacity, medical services tend to be less uneven fields, resulting in excessive water application to low-
accessible for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s poor, remote, lying areas and under-irrigation in higher elevations [40]. In a
Climate-Smart Agriculture Profile of KP, Pakistan 13recent survey of the Merged Areas, inaccessibility or limited [44]. While considerable improvements have been made
access to irrigation water was cited by 59% of farmers as in the grading, processing, storage, packaging, labelling,
the primary constraint that keeps farmers from cultivating and transport of fruits, dairy and poultry around the country,
their land [25]. While farmer, water-user communities, and the processing of other high value perishables–particularly
other communal resource management organisations vegetables and livestock–remains poor [44]. Additionally,
have helped smallholder farmers effectively manage critical a lack of advanced agricultural training, seasonal water
resources globally, in Pakistan, these associations tend to be shortages, limited financial resources, poor marketing
weak [41]. Social cohesion has been a stumbling block in opportunities, and climate hazards all conspire to suppress
the tribal areas, and management training would help scale sectoral productivity [2, 40]. Local experts highlight the
the capacity of existing organisations [41]. potential for organic production of selected high-value fruits
and vegetables, but underscore farmers’ lack of awareness
3.6.4 Mechanization, technology, and infrastructure about the potential incremental revenues associated with
organic farming [40].
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s agricultural sector remains in
much need of technological upgrading, as less efficient, 3.6.5 Access to credit
traditional practices largely prevail over the adoption of
relevant and appropriate modern technology, machinery, Farmers in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa largely lack access to
and practices. While irrigation is widely available in Khyber agricultural credit and formal financing options that would
Pakhtunkhwa—although to a much lesser extent in the help them overcome the constraints and risks associated
Merged Areas—it is comparably more difficult for farmers with farming and marketing agricultural goods. While
to access machinery for land preparation and harvesting both public and private formal financial institutions are
due to the availability, costs, and appropriateness of present in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, a 2017 study of micro-
machinery for the soil structure and infrastructure of Khyber credit programmes in district Mardan found that only 9.5%
Pakhtunkhwa’s farms [16]. However, the benefits of simple of all formal credit flows went to small farmers [45]. This
mechanization on productivity and revenue generation in is unfortunate, as the same study, and a 2011 study of
the province are manifest: a recent study in Peshawar Valley agricultural credits in district D.I. Khan, both suggest that
found that average yields per acre of wheat and maize crops credits dispersed for seeds, inputs, irrigation, and tractors
were higher for mechanized farms as compared to non- correlated to increased yields and revenue for farmers [45,
mechanized farms [42]. Long-term, the use of appropriate 46]. One way in which the province is trying to make credit
machinery and tillage practices for key staple crops in more accessible is by channelling it through the Model
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa can improve soil fertility and reduce Farm Service Centres (MFSC). The provincial agricultural
chemical usage (see CSA practices section) [43]. Public policy promotes linking FSCs and private and public sector
investments are needed to develop local farm machinery, credit institutions to train communities on rural insurance
or modify imported equipment, to make them workable for schemes and create revolving funds [16].
the conditions and compatible with farmer resources and
payment capacity in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa [16]. Farmers in the Merged Areas are amongst the most
constrained in terms of their access to credit. Rather
Likewise, the adoption rates of crucial agricultural than accessing credit for investments in agriculture, most
technologies -including improved genetic material, inputs, households in the Merged Areas assume debt as a livelihood-
and farming approaches and practices- are low throughout based coping strategy to overcome severe resource
the district and particularly in the Merged Areas. A survey constraints and food insecurity. According to a 2019
of farmers in the Merged Areas found that, after lacking survey in the Merged Areas, almost half of the households
water for irrigation, the main problems that prevent farmers (49%) contracted a debt in the six months preceding the
from cultivating their land include the inability to access survey, generally to pay for medical expenses (41%) and to
high-yielding seeds, fertilizers, and appropriate tools [25]. purchase food (24%) [16]. The Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Tribal
Despite the introduction of 25 state-sponsored Model Farm Agricultural Action Plan recommends that the government
Service Centres (MFSC) tasked with enhancing farmer’s or NGOs can mitigate the risks assumed by lending entities
capacity and improving their access to inputs, additional through co-investments and the provision of matching
scaling efforts and funding are required to ensure that grants or credits to investors, or by acting as a guarantor
farmers, particularly in the remote areas, receive training to commercial banks [24]. Finally, in terms of disaster
in modern methods such as agrochemicals and improved relief, there have been several schemes used in Khyber
crop varieties [40, 44]. Pakhtunkhwa to provide food or resources to support
recovery and adaptation. Various voucher programs through
In terms of post-harvest handling, storage, processing, the government and programs such as Food Assistance for
and marketing, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa offers very limited Assets through NGOs have provided an alternative to typical
infrastructure. In total, less than 10% of fruits and vegetables finance models [31, 24].
produced in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are processed in the
province [2, 40]. This lack of local processing facilities forces 3.6.6 Research and capacity building
producers to forego the value addition and increased returns
that occur higher up the value chain. Additionally, a lack The limited adoption of CSA practices in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
of adequate storage facilities leads to post-harvest losses, is in part due to the lack of awareness of farmers about
with wheat, rice, and maize stores particularly impacted the impact of climate change and the appropriate tools,
14 Climate-Smart Agriculture Profile of KP, Pakistantechnologies, and practices that will help them adapt. Women are also predisposed to being disproportionately
This knowledge gap underscores the need for additional, impacted by the repercussions of climate-related and
targeted research on CSA practices and practical training humanitarian disasters, due to the primacy of women’s role
programmes for smallholders in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. For in providing food for the family, they are particularly affected
example, agricultural zoning exercises that would support when resources are limited or non-existent [36]. Following
farmers in selecting the most appropriate crops and farming the climate and conflict crisis, women report that their
practices, has not been carried out in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa movements are more restricted which often prohibits them
unlike in other provinces. Another key CSA intervention at the from completing daily, on-farm activities [36]. Moreover, in
provincial level for several important crops is the adoption of the aftermath of major disasters, the displaced populations
improved varieties that are pest and disease tolerant; suited are vulnerable to food shortages, which, in recent years
to the on-farm temperature and precipitation conditions; and have required emergency relief in the form of food aid, cash
have well-suited maturation rates. Several of the province’s transfers, and other disaster management programs [31].
17 agriculture-related research institutions contribute to the Children, pregnant and nursing women, and the elderly
development of improved varieties and other CSA practices, are particularly susceptible to complications related to
however various policies call for additional funding and nutrition, such as vitamin and nutrient deficiencies linked
governmental support to strengthen and scale-up their to the diet consumed in the aftermath of emergencies
work [47]. Significantly, the Merged Areas have largely been [6]. As emphasized by the Secure Livelihoods Research
excluded from such research, and additional resources and Consortium in their 2012 working paper, disasters generally
support will be needed to build linkages to existing Khyber exacerbate existing inequalities, thus gender analysis will be
Pakhtunkhwa entities and to develop research capacity an essential component of all programmes and policies that
specific to the region [24]. aim to ensure sustainable recovery that improves gender
equality [36].
Perhaps more pressing is the need to improve the capacity
of farmers in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa through awareness-
raising, training, and on-going field support. At present, 4. Agriculture and climate change
farmers have limited access to agricultural extension services
through the state, and are largely dissatisfied with both the 4.1 Projected changes in climate
quantity and quality of support that they do receive [48].
Both the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Agriculture Policy and the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is situated in the northwest region
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Tribal Districts Agricultural Action Plan of the country and is a topographically diverse province.
highlight the need to restructure existing institutions to target Variable climate conditions range from the extremely
this problem, pointing to the poor coordination amongst cold temperatures and heavy rainfall during winter in
providers and the fact that managerial and administrative the northern regions, to moderate rainfall and high
staff heavily outweigh technical and extension service staff temperatures during summer in the southern regions. For
across agricultural sub-sector departments in the region [16, example, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s northernmost district,
24]. A recent study of farmers’ knowledge of best practices Chitral, is characterized by mountainous terrain and
in rain-fed districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa found that most formidable glaciers, and experiences the province’s lowest
farmers received extension support less than once per year temperatures in winter. Conversely, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s
and had very little knowledge of prioritized practices [49]. southernmost district, D.I. Khan, is characterized by mild
winters and optimum climatic conditions that make it
3.6.7 Gender prime for agricultural and rangeland development [51] The
province has two wet seasons: during monsoon season,
Gender disparity is prevalent across much of Pakistani society, strong winds carry moisture from the Arabian Sea and the
with the agriculture sector being no exception. Women are Bay of Bengal, while in the winter wet season, storms from
not granted the same levels of access to formal education, Iran and the Caspian districts dump rain and snow. Climate
financial services, and training in the latest technologies and change poses a serious threat to agriculture in Khyber
farming techniques, and are often overlooked in financial Pakhtunkhwa, exacerbating the vulnerability of its residents,
and economic decision making [50]. With government, particularly those communities that are already jeopardized
private sector, and NGO training programmes often by food insecurity and livelihood status. Projected changes
delivered by and targeted towards men [16] Despite this, in precipitation are more heterogeneous, with higher
women are still required to carry out all of the reproductive increases recorded in Ratanakiri and areas along the
tasks while also contributing to productive tasks on the farm. Southern coastline, which are all due to experience >2.8%
In terms of productive tasks, women are heavily involved increase from current levels. The Mekong floodplains and
in livestock rearing and the harvesting and processing of areas around the Cardamom and Elephant Mountains
major crops. It is however estimated that 75% of the work are projected to experience the lowest average increase,
they carry out goes unremunerated [50]. It is estimated by approximatelyFuture climate projects suggest changes to the nature and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. In recent years, monsoonal
variability of temperature and moisture patterns in Khyber rainfall and temperatures have become increasingly
Pakhtunkhwa province. Climate models from the CMIP5 irregular and difficult to forecast, while drought conditions
ensemble project temperatures to increase by more than have—and are projected to continue—worsened during the
2 °C across the different divisions in the province by the rabi season, reducing the yields of key crops, such as wheat,
2050s. The Malakand division is projected to experience the that are vital for both food security and the overall economy
greatest warming effect, with an increase in temperatures of of the province [10]. Already, decreased precipitation has
2.9 °C. Likewise, the total rainfall in the province is projected depleted the water table in other key areas in the province
to increase in the future, with the largest increases seen in which has reduced the land area available for cultivation
the lowland areas to the east of the province, with more [53]. These conditions likewise shorten the growing period
modest increases seem in the more mountainous regions for key crops, like wheat and maize, and increase the
in the west of the province (Figure 1). likelihood of poor yields and crop failure. A recent study
shows that each °C increase in global mean temperatures,
Changing climatic conditions and increasingly unpredictable would on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%,
weather events pose serious risks to the agricultural sector in rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4% [54].
Projected change in Temperature and Precipitation in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa [52]
Changes in annual mean temperature (°C) Changes in total precipitation (%)
Figure 1. Projected changes in annual mean temperature (ΔT) and total annual precipitation (ΔT) in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
by 2050 for RCP 4.5 scenario.
Average temperature (°C) Average precipitation (%)
Figure 2. Average temperatures and precipitation modelled for different time periods from 2030 to 2070 under RCP
8.5.
16 Climate-Smart Agriculture Profile of KP, Pakistan4.2 Natural Hazards and Disaster Risk village level1 across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province to better
Reduction understand local experts’ perceptions of climate change
and its impacts on the nature of climate-related and natural
hazards that affect the agricultural sector [56]. The study
Pakistan is classed as highly vulnerable after suffering on highlights the climate and non-climate related natural
average US $3.7 billion in climate related damages each disasters that were prioritized by district-level stakeholders
year between 2000 and 2019 [3]. Climate-related hazards as the most significant in terms of their impact on provincial
such as floods, heat waves, droughts, and severe snow agriculture. The Hazard Risk Matrix (Figure 3) represents
storms, and related natural hazards such as earthquakes, the findings of this study, aggregated at the provincial level.
landslides, and avalanches are all common occurrences The remainder of this section provides information about
in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province [55]. Due to its extreme the historical and current nature of the hazards that experts
terrain and low levels of socioeconomic development, identified as frequently occurring with moderate to severe
natural hazards in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa can easily transform impacts on agriculture. It furthermore explains how their
into complex humanitarian emergencies [31]. Moreover, frequency, severity, and predictability will likely be affected
these disasters erode the long-term livelihood resilience by projected climate changes.
and adaptive capacity of communities, leaving them more
vulnerable to other climate and non-climate related shocks. 4.2.1 Floods
This enhanced susceptibility greatly complicates disaster
response efforts and increases residents’ vulnerability Climate projections suggest that increasing rainfall,
to climate hazards, requiring well-targeted and robust including bouts of high-intensity rain, may further increase
adaptation and mitigation strategies. the possibility of dangerous flash floods and glacier lake
outbursts in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Caused by unpredictable
The climatic changes described in the preceding section and very intense rains, flash floods create severe losses in
are likely to affect both the frequency and the severity of the agricultural sector almost every year and are amongst
disasters, both climate-related and natural, that occur in the most significant threats to agricultural livelihoods in
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. In order to further the existing the province. In areas where the surface topography is
research on the impact of climate change on agriculture in composed of loose, unconsolidated soil that is non-cohesive
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the Alliance of Bioversity International in nature are particularly prone to flash floods and landslides
and the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) during intensive rainfall [26]. Furthermore, human activities
with the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization including deforestation, overgrazing in upper catchments,
(FAO) carried out a study in 2020 using stakeholder and interference in water catchment areas combine to
meetings, interviews, and roundtables at the district and reduce natural vegetation increasing peak flow rates through
Hazard Matrix Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Severity/Frecuency Minor severity (50% losses)
Every 10 years
- Heat stress
Every 5 years - Lightning storm
- Riverine flooding
- Drought - Low
irrigation water supply
- Pest outbreak
Every second year - Drought - Low rainfall (Locust, Army worm,
Hopper burn)
- Heavy rain/Flash
flooding
- Disease outbreak
Every year
(Plant & Livestock)
Figure 3. Hazard risk matrix classifying hazards by on their frequency and the severity of their impacts on agricultural supply
chains in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, based on the aggregation of qualitative data collected from district level stakeholders
across the province.
1
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa districts included in study were: Chitral, Orakzai, Kurram, D.I. Khan, North Waziristan, and South Waziristan. 3-4 villages were selected
in each district for the village level assessment.
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