Challenges for Research - Fapesp
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Challenges for Research
Contact Information Jerry L. Hatfield Laboratory Director National Laboratory for Agriculture and the Environment Director, Midwest Climate Hub 2110 University Blvd Ames, Iowa 50011 515-294-5723 515-294-8125 (fax) jerry.hatfield@ars.usda.gov
Framework For Agronomic Systems Cropping Outputs Inputs Systems Grain Climate Corn- Forage Soil Beans Env. Goods Genetics Wheat- Nitrate Nutrients Sunflower Sediment Water Cotton- GHG’s Sorghum Mitigation Strategies Adaptation Strategies
Climate Factors Inputs Temperature Indirect Precipitation Insects Solar radiation Direct Diseases Carbon dioxide Growth Weeds Phenology Yield Soil is the underlying factor as a resource for nutrients and water
Climate vs Weather Climate determines where we grow a crop Weather determines how much we produce
Maize Yields 12 Maize Production 10 United States Grain Yield (Mg ha ) -1 Mexico China 8 6 4 2 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year
Wheat Yields 6 Wheat Grain Production 5 United States Mexico Grain Yield (Mg ha ) -1 China 4 3 2 1 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year
Projections “Assuming no change in population growth, food consumption patterns and food waste management, the following production increases must take place by 2050: cereals production must increase by 940 million tonnes to reach 3 billion tonnes; (45% increase) meat production must increase by 196 million tonnes to reach 455 million tonnes; (77% increase) and oilcrops by must increase by 133 million tonnes to reach 282 million tonnes (89% increase) (Alexabdratos and Bruinsma, 2012). It is also estimated that global demand for crop calories will increase by 100 percent ±11 percent and global demand for crop protein will increase by 110 percent ±7 percent from 2005 to 2050 (Tilman et al. 2011). “ Alexandratos N, Bruinsma J. 2012. World agriculture towards 2030/2050, the 2012 revision. ESA Working Paper No. 12-03, June 2012. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). (Available from http://www.fao.org/docrep/016/ap106e/ap106e.pdf) Tilman D, Balzer C, Hill J, Befort BL. 2011. Global food demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture. PNAS 108(50):20260–20264. Washington DC: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. (Available from http://www.pnas.org/content/108/50/20260)
World Soybean Production 45 World Soybean Production 40 By 2050, we will 35 Yield (bu/A) have a 1066 kg/ha 30 deficit in production 25 compared to projected 20 Data points requirements Yield = -789.79 + 0.41 yr r2 = 0.95 15 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Year
Corn Grain Production 90 World Corn Production 80 70 By 2050, we have a 125 Yield (bu/A) 60 kg/ha deficit on expected 50 production 40 compared to required Data points 30 Yield = -1979.659 +1.02 yr r2 = 0.97 production 20 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Year
Wheat Grain Production 55 50 World Wheat Production 45 By 2050, we have a 627.2 Yield (bu/A) 40 kg/ha excess in 35 production 30 estimates compared to 25 Data points projected 20 Yield = -1233.819 + 0.639 yr r2 = 0.98 requirements 15 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Year
Brazil Wheat 3000 Brazil Wheat 2500 Yield (kg ha ) 2000 -1 1500 1000 500 Data points Yield = -68839.61 + 35.35 Year r2=0.80 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Year
Brazil Soybean 3500 Brazil Soybean 3000 Yield (kg ha ) 2500 -1 2000 1500 1000 Data points Yield = -72874.7 + 37.62 Year r2=0.89 500 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Year
Climate Factors Inputs Temperature Indirect Precipitation Insects Solar radiation Direct Diseases Carbon dioxide Growth Weeds Phenology Yield Soil is the underlying factor as a resource for nutrients and water
Carbon Dioxide Increases
Present vs. Past L. Ziska, USDA-ARS
Present vs. Future L. Ziska, USDA-ARS
Carbon Dioxide-Water Interactions Two levels of CO2 and three soil water levels on soybean
CO2 and Temperature Interactions CO2 and temperature effects offset each other in a well-watered situation; however, in water limited the positive effect of CO2 is dominant
Temperature Responses Difference in temperature response between the vegetative and reproductive stage of development for crops. The higher the temperature the faster the rate of development
Temperature Optimum Temp Temp Range Failure (C) (C) Temp Crop Veg Reprod Veg Reprod (C) Maize 34 18-32 18-22 35 Soybean 30 26 25-37 22-24 39 Wheat 26 26 20-30 15 34 Rice 36 33 33 23-26 35-36 Cotton 37 30 34 25-26 35 Tomato 22 22 22-25 30
Nighttime Temperatures
Impact of Warm Nights on Corn and Soybean Productivity 7.0 Corn and Soybean Production Fields Net Carbon Flux (mg m s ) -1 6.5 -2 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 Corn Soybean 4.0 3.5 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 Average Minimum Temperature (C)
Temperature effects on Corn Phenology 25 25 25 Corn Hybrid RX730 Corn Hybrid DK 61-72 Corn Hybrid XL45A 20 20 20 Total Collars Total Collars Total Collars 15 15 15 Normal Temperatures Normal Temperatures Warm Temperatures Warm Temperatures Normal Temperatures Warm Temperatures 10 10 10 5 5 5 0 0 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Days after Planting Days after Planting Days after Planting 1505 15805 5519 19130 4453 24774 kg ha-1 Rhizotron study with warm chamber 4C warmer than normal chamber with simulation of Ames IA temperature patterns.
Rhizotron Results 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Combinations of water (g/plant) and temperature stresses cause disruption in pollination and grain-fill Yield 100 Soil Water Levels Soil Water Levels 0.5 1.0 1.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 Normal Temp High Temp (reprod)
Current Reductions in Yields Lobell et al. 2011 Science 333:616-620
Current Mega-climate regimes Future (2050) mega- climate regimes Move from a favorable to unfavorable climate for wheat Ortiz et al. Agric Ecosys & Environ. 2008. 126:46-58
Temperature Effects on Evaporation 14 Saturation Vapor Pressure (kPa) 12 10 8 e* = 0.61121 exp(17.502Ta/Ta + 240.97) 6 4 2 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 Air Temperature (C) ( 0 − ) [ 0 − ] = + (1 + )
Global Models Disagree on CO2 (Climate) Effect on ET Global gridded models (ISI-MIP) vary in ET response to climate change. Response for future RCP 8.5 HadGEM-ES: Solid - CO2 rising Dashed - no CO2
Soil Water Use Rates 600 C o rn W a te r U s e 2 0 0 0 500 C la rio n S p rin g N (1 0 0 k g /h a ) W e b s te r S p rin g N (1 0 0 k g /h a ) W a te r U se (m m ) 400 C la rio n F a ll N (2 0 0 k g /h a ) W e b s te r F a ll N (2 0 0 k g /h a ) 300 200 100 0 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 D ay of Year
Crop Yield Variation
Precipitation Expect increased variation among years Expect increased variation within a year Expect increase in intensity of storms and decreased frequency of storms
Soil Water Availability 35 Available Water Content (%) 30 25 20 15 10 Data Points Sand, AWC = 3.8 + 2.2 OM 5 Silt Loam, AWC = 9.2 + 3.7 OM Silty clay loam, AWC = 6.3 + 2.8 OM 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Organic Matter (%) Hudson, 1994
Variation in Yields 30 Iowa County Maize Yields 25 20% of the yield 20 loss occurs 80% Frequency of the time due 15 Cass County Floyd County to water Story County availability Washington County 10 5 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 Fraction of Potential Maize Yield The majority of the yield losses due to the weather are short-term stresses
Soybean yields across the Midwest 340 320 300 County Yield (g m-2) 280 260 240 220 Kentucky Iowa 200 Nebraska Kentucky 180 (Double crop) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 NCCPI-AG
Maize County Yields 1000 900 Mean County Yield (g m-2) 800 700 600 Y = 436.096 + 478.149X, r2 = 0.58*** Kentucky Iowa 500 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 NCCPI-AG
Implications Climate will definitely impact crops both directly and indirectly Soil management to increase water holding capacity and reduce E from ET will be a critical climate resilient factor Quantify the indirect effects due to insects, diseases, and weeds Quantify the effects of climate change on nutritional quality of grain, forage, and produce We need to approach climate resilience and adaptation strategies as a G x E x M problem
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