Circular Economy - past, present, future
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Circular Economy – past, present, future
Lithuania webinar, 25 March 2021
Dr h.c.mult. Walter R. Stahel
Full Member of the Club of Rome,
Visiting Professor, Fac of Engineering, University of Surrey
www.product-life.org, wrstahel2014@gmail.com
1
25 March 2021 Stahel Lithuania webinar 1
The origins of Circularity: 1 Nature: water,
wood, wool, leather, food, stones, minerals.
2 good husbandry (poverty, scarcity): use it up,
wear it out, make it do or do without.
3 infrastructure: designed for durability
25 March 2021 Stahel Lithuania webinar 2
Shower economics – consumer goods
inflow Production in-FLOW
measured
(GDP) F
L
O
W
food and fodder,
Consumption energy, water,
drinks
F
L
O
W
outflow “waste”
estimated management
out-FLOW
25 March 2021 Stahel Lithuania webinar 3
bath tub economics - three business domains
inflow Linear water in-FLOW
measured Industrial
(GDP) Economy quantity & quality
F
L
O
W
stock Circular &
Performance
unknown, Economy
STOCK
quality & quantity
F
L
outflow “waste”
O
W
estimated management water outFLOW
25 March 2021 Stahel Lithuania webinar 4
The Circular Economy is about stocks -
quantity and quality are intertwined
• natural capital (EU bioeconomy: arable land, water,
forests, fish stock, biodiversity)
• human capital (labour, skills, expertise, wisdom)
• cultural capital (monuments, landscapes, music)
• financial capital (investments, wealth)
• manufactured capital (materials, objects)
• and immaterial (embodied water and CO2; liability).
The industrial economy is about flows !
25 March 2021 Stahel Lithuania webinar 5
Two industrial economy models
MORE IS MORE
linear manufacturing economy $$$ states
border
zero-life products
resources materials manufacturing distrib. P.O.S. use waste
liability
ECONOMIC ACTORS in USERS STATES
mining production logistics waste
managers
LESS is more
Circular
Circul
ar
Economy
Performance Economy
25 March 2021 Stahel Lithuania webinar 6
Depreciated value is one pillar of the linear economy: An insurance agent went to a museum and accidentally hit a statue. Museum guard: That is a 500 year old statue you have broken! Insurance agent: Thank God. I feared it was a new one. Note: the circular economy is based on functional or use value 25 March 2021 Stahel Lithuania webinar 7
The point of sale is part of the linear economy 25 March 2021 Stahel Lithuania webinar 8
The Circular Economy
is silent, invisible, local
thus ecologic
X
Container ports, ships, trains
Logistics- and
Shopping Centers
warehouse on wheels,
trucks at the Brenner
Delivery drohnes ?
Note: the industrialStaheleconomy
25 March 2021 Lithuania webinar
is visible and noisy
9
The Circular Economy is about economics,
innovation, competitiveness (and decentral)
• The era of ‘R’ – Reuse, Repair, Reman of objects
• The era of ‘D’ – De-linking to recover molecules
• Innovation in materials, components, systems
• CE is a new trend of intelligent decentralisation
• Selling performance instead of atoms, objects
• Spreading the knowledge
• Innovative policy making
• Measuring the immaterial or invisible
25 March 2021 Stahel Lithuania webinar 10The origin of the Circular Industrial Economy 1976:
economics, innovation, competitiveness
managing stocks of objects locally
BARRIER
labour-intensive the small
service activities loops
remanufacture
X embodied X
THE PROFIT
resources re-use
recycling repair
renovating buildings, renting goods,
maintain & upgrade refill, resell,
the large loop infrastructure second-hand,
Source:
25 MarchStahel/Reday,
2021 1976 - the potential for substituting
Stahel Lithuania webinar manpower for energy 11from end-of-life to the circular material
as-pure-as-new the era economy, maintaining value
of ‘D’
The view of a mature CIE 2020
resources (atoms) and purity of stocks
Point of atoms
end-of
end-of-
service-life
service-life
production
Point of Sale
or Service
product use
Reuse, Repair the circular user economy,
the era
maintaining value & utility,
Remanufacture of ‘R’
quality & quantity of stocks
25 March 2021 Stahel Lithuania webinar 12
Source: Stahel, Walter R. (2019) Circular Economy – a user's guide, RoutledgeReducing national CO2 emissions by 66%
Societal benefits of the circular economy
in comparison to the present economy (Sweden & 6 countries)
macro-economic I/O Study by Skanberg-Wijkman 2016.
circular energy material combined
scenario efficiency scenario
GHG — 50,1% — 28% — 5% — 66%
additional + 4%
jobs + 100’000 + 200’000 +>300’000 +>500’000
trade + 0.4% + 0.4% + 0,2% + 0,25%
balance of GDP of GDP of GDP of GDP
https://www.clubofrome.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/The-
Circular-Economy-and-Benefits-for-Society.pdf
This is why politicians should be interested !
25 March 2021 Stahel Lithuania webinar 13The era of ‘R’, good husbandry,
owner-users of objects are in control
to maintain the value and utility of stocks of
objects by extending their service-life through
• Reuse, Refill, Repair, Remanufacture,
Reprogram and technological upgrading,
• preserve materials, embodied water, energy,
• greatly reduce CO2 emissions and waste,
• create local skilled jobs,
• save money and provide resource security.
25 March 2021 Stahel Lithuania webinar 14from end-of-life to
the era of
as-pure-as-new ‘D’
resources (atoms)
Point of
end-of
atoms
end-of-
service-
service-life
life
production
Point of Sale
or Service
product use
the era the circular user economy
Why of ‘R’ maintaining value, quality &
quantity of stocks of objects
25 March 2021 Stahel Lithuania webinar 15
Source: Stahel, Walter R. (2019) Circular Economy – a user's guide, RoutledgeWhy! the era of ‘R’ creates local skilled jobs
Societal benefits of the Circular Economy micro-eco:
product-life extension creates local jobs and
prevents waste (substituting manpower for energy)
10 years 20 years 30 years
LABOUR
factory LABOUR factory
factory LABOUR
parts
parts
parts
Source: Stahel,
25 March Walter 1982
2021 Stahel Lithuania webinar 16ICE1 Redesign
Remanufacture is local, cheap & green:
In 1995, the 59 trains of German Rail had been in
cheaper
service for 15 years, covering 15 million km each.
87%
• Redesign costs were € 3 million per train,
versus € 25 million for a similar new train.
• Redesign preserved 80% of resources -
resource
savings
16’500 tons of steel, 1180 tons of copper -
prevented 35’000 tons of CO2 emissions
& 500’000 tons of mining waste per train.
The Redesign included a technological upgrading
of the rolling stock, and allowed to add more seats.
25 March 2021 Stahel Lithuania webinar 17Who takes decisions in the era of ‘R’ ? The owner- aa users, 25 March 2021 Stahel Lithuania webinar 18
from end-of-life to the era of
as-pure-as-new
resources (atoms) ‘D’
Point of
end-of
atoms
end-of-
service-
service-life
life
production
Point of Sale
or Service
product use
the era the circular user economy
maintaining value,
of ‘R’ quality & quantity of stock
25 March 2021 Stahel Lithuania webinar 19
Source: Stahel, Walter R. (2019) Circular Economy – a user's guide, RoutledgeThe era of ‘D’ was born when Science uncoupled man from Nature’s circularity The Anthropocene unleashed scientific progress: • physics: the nuclear bomb & civil uses (health) • chemistry: synthetic materials, plastic, agrochemicals, pharmaceuticals, hormones, • metallurgy: multitude of metal alloys, Man-made (synthetic) materials impose a man- made responsibility at the end: the era of ‘D’. 25 March 2021 Stahel Lithuania webinar 20
The era of ‘D’, the legacy from the Anthropocene, who is in charge for zero carbon and zero waste ? to maintain the value and purity of elements (atoms, molecules), by recovering pure molecules: • through technologies to De-polymerize, De-alloy, De-laminate, De-vulcanize materials, De-coat objects, De-construct infrastructure and buildings, and by re-refining catalytic materials, implying: • non-mix collection methods, disassembly and non- destructive maximum-value recovery processes, • technologies to recover atoms and molecules. 25 March 2021 Stahel Lithuania webinar 21
Value not retained in the Swedish materials system
Material value in % in bio m3/tons
in billion SEK SEK in %
at end of retained after material Swedish
use before one full cycle value lost recycling
collection statistics
all
materials
55 13 24% 42 n.a.
Steel 29 9 32% 20 75-95%
Alu 3.1 1.2 40% 1.2 (- e) high
Plastic 0.8
10 8% 92 53%
+7%
15
energy
25 March 2021 Stahel Lithuania webinar 22
Material economics (2018) Ett värdebeständigt svenskt materialsystem (Retaining value in the Swedish Materials System. English Summary)multidisciplinary innovation in systems,
materials (molecules) and components
• behavioural sciences and psychology,
• systems solutions (PV-coated steel cladding),
processes, components to upgrade stocks,
• material sciences to prevent a continued era
of ‘D’ legacy of the Anthropocene:
– circular energy (e.g. hydrogen, bio-methane),
– circular chemistry (tracable molecules, CCU),
– circular ceramics,
– circular metallurgy (tracable alloys),
-- life-sciences of the Bio-Anthropocene.
25 March 2021 Stahel Lithuania webinar 23In recycling, the speed of the circular flow is crucial
(reversed aggregate interests), e.g. coke can, 3 week life
user behaviour and durability of objects
resource volume
100% 100% 27 cycles
average life
of reusable
75% 50 % recycling rate glass bottles
with deposit
75 % recycling rate
50%
25%
90 % recycling rate
3 week life-cycles
7 17
TIME
0 1/2 12 2 years
25 March 2021 recycling versus
Stahel Lithuania webinar reuse 24novel systems
from end-of-life to
as-pure-as-new the era materials,
of ‘D’ components
resources (atoms)
Point of
end-of atoms
end-of-
service-
life
service-life
production
spare less Point of Sale
repairs, or Service
remanufacture
better than new product use
the circular user economy
the era
Source: Stahel, Walter R. (2019)
of ‘R’ maintaining value,
Circular Economy – a user's guide,
25 March 2021
quality & quantity of stock25
Stahel Lithuania webinar
Routledge, LondonSystems innovation ‘eDumper’ - the biggest energy self-sufficient electric vehicle world-wide. • it transports 65 tonnes of A perpetum mobile? material from an uphill quarry to a cement factory downhill. • each downhill trip under load charges the batteries and enables it to drive back uphill empty, intelligently exploiting the differences in altitude and weight of the two trips. 13 Jan 2021 Stahel RWTH Aachen CE & Circular Sciences 26
Circular energy includes green hydrogen, ammonium (X-15), iron powder (NL) and geothermal CHP but also such concepts as integrated energy management systems and energy service companies: • the first plastic-to-hydrogen facility in the UK uses DMG (Distributed Modular Generation) technology, • photocatalytic water splitting can be done with a quantum efficiency of almost unity, • steam reformation of bio-methane can split the methane molecule (CH4) into carbon dioxide (CO2) and hydrogen (H2), or turn bio-methane into hydrogen and graphite. • Japan, Norway, EU, Shell, electric utilities producing green hydrogen. 25 March 2021 Stahel Lithuania webinar 27
Chemical circularity through intelligently
designed plastic (PDKs)
Polydiketoenamines (PDKs), a new type of recyclable
polymer with low energy and water consumption.
The source materials are 100% recoverable as pure
monomers that can be used (even in the presence of
additives, glass fibres) to recreate the same polymer.
Brett Helms Research Group at Lawrence Berkeley National
Laboratory https://foundry.lbl.gov/helmsgroup, https://www.lbl.gov,
Nature Chemistry, May 2019, v.11. p. 442-448,
www.nature.com(articles/s41557-019-0249-2
25 March 2021 Stahel Lithuania webinar 28Circular chemistry in the era of ‘D’ New opportunities: innovative technologies and methods to recover atoms and molecules as pure as virgin, through De-polymerize, De-alloy, De- laminate, De-vulcanize, De-coat objects, and • a method of converting mixed plastic waste into hydrogen gas, which can be used as a clean fuel, and high-value solid carbon, using a new type of catalysis, which uses microwaves to activate catalyst particles to effectively ‘strip’ hydrogen from polymers. • Carbon Capture and Utilisation (CCU), carbon chemistry to replace the petro-chemistry. 25 March 2021 Stahel Lithuania webinar 29
Chemistry:
U.S. cemetery of windmill blades, cut in 3
A suitable
25 March 2021 case to De-laminate
Stahel Lithuania webinar 30
Source: Bloomberg newsCircular bio-chemistry in the era of ‘D’ • technology to convert end-of-life tyres into liquid hydrocarbons and carbon black, • technique of engineered microbial communities to digest PET and polyurethane into Bio-PU molecules, • mutant bacterial enzyme reduces bottles to chemical building blocks that are used to make new bottles, • engineered enzyme that breaks down polyethylene terephthalate (PET) into its constituent monomers, • thermolysis process of mixed plastic waste produces gas and paraffin oil which can be used as raw material for the production of new plastic granules. 25 March 2021 Stahel Lithuania webinar 31
process innovation
Converting waste water into
drinking water, and
recovering non-renewable
natural resources,
e.g. phosphorous, from waste
water streams.
25 March 2021 Stahel Lithuania webinar 32
Source: NATURECircular chemistry in the era of ‘R’ New opportunities: innovative chemicals to optimise the use phase (operation and maintenance) of the stocks of objects: • buildings and infrastructure (eg. Sika), • maintenance and cleaning, • equipment remanufacture (eg. de-coating), • innovative repairs, golden sewing. 25 March 2021 Stahel Lithuania webinar 33
Circular Society equals regional cultural solutions • Japanese Kintsugi, golden sewing, • repair cafés in Europe, • Amish communities in the USA, 25 March 2021 Stahel Lithuania webinar 34
Circular metallurgy Circular metallurgy includes reusing steel beams, re-refining tailings and urban ores, remanufacture components, sustainable steel making (H2) and • tracable alloys, • a simple, inexpensive technology to improve the purity of recycled aluminium by removing iron, • iron powder as a new circular fuel (Dutch Brewery). This iron fuel is CO2-free, reusable, safe, compact and easy to transport. 25 March 2021 Stahel Lithuania webinar 35
Resource losses in Ni-use and recycling
a suitable case to De-alloy
% of Ni lost in use
% of Ni recovered
25 March 2021 Stahel Lithuania webinar 36Chemistry: innovative wear elements
(grinding stones) in reman processes
Circular metallurgy:
• Speno rail grinding:
in-situ remanufacturing
of railheads instead of
replacing rails.
• quality better than
new, tolerance
1/100 mm vs 1/10 mm,
Speno International
• at half the cost.
25 March 2021 Stahel Lithuania webinar 37Reusable materials (ceramics) Porcelain, recovering material through grinding, Ceramic coatings (RollsRoyce jet turbines) Composite powder, developed by UK’s Cookson Group, can be pressed into any form and, magnetised, becomes an extremely powerful permanent magnet. After use, this smart material can be demagnetised by grinding it back into a powder, then remixed for its next use. To benefit from the successive life cycles of smart materials, manufacturers will have to lease the material to component manufacturers with a return guarantee, imposing the strategy of selling performance on all levels. 25 March 2021 Stahel Lithuania webinar 38
(Life)sciences of the Bio-Anthropocene • Coldzymes (enzymes from Antartica), • synthetic molecules, molecular sciences, • engineered molecules, • DNA, CRISPR, mRNA, • medicines on demand, • circular by definition? • industrial innovation or applied biology? 25 March 2021 Stahel Lithuania webinar 39
by
Walter R. Stahel,
June 2019,
Routledge
25 March 2021 Stahel Lithuania webinar 40Circular economy is part of a new trend of
intelligent decentralisation
• robots & additive manufacturing; nanostructured
micro-reactors to produce high-purity chemicals
and short-lived tracer elements needed in medical
applications; carbon nano-tubes (CNTs),
• local energy production, photovoltaic and micro-
hydro-electricity production, waste-to-biogas,
• medicines on demand,
• crowd mapping, resilient cities, re-industrialisation
of regions through the era of ‘R’,
• micro-breweries and -bakeries, -credit, -insurance,
• urban farming,
25 March 2021 Stahel Lithuania webinar 41intelligent
decentralisation
25 March 2021 Stahel Lithuania webinar 426 The Performance Economy
owner-managers are in control
The most sustainable Circular Economy
business models, exploiting efficiency,
sufficiency & systems solutions.
Economic actors selling performance retain the
ownership of and liability for objects, and
• internalise all costs of risks and waste,
• save transaction and litigation costs,
• gain corporate resource security.
25 March 2021 Stahel Lithuania webinar 43Commercial quantum leaps The Performance
are a booster of the Economy
O-
Circular Economy Retained V-L
Business Models
ownership
& liability
sharing goods molecules Toxic
economy as a as a Release
service service Inventory
selling
performance
O&M ff OEM
skills function skills
guarantees
25 March 2021 Stahel Lithuania webinar 44Selling performance through appropriate for ‘sufficiency’ solutions rural areas ‘organic’ waste water treatment plants are low-cost (no ‘bricks’ or pumps), create biotopes and flood basins, have no sludge (waste) issue – but need space (4 m2/habitant). 25 March 2021 Stahel Lithuania webinar 45
Molecules as a service
• Agrochemical management services,
• Novartis’ money back guarantee for medicines.
Re-refining catalytic chemicals in combination with
rent-a-molecule business models:
• solvents: SafeChem (Dow), UNIDO in Africa,
• lubrication oils (Castrol),
Business models beyond catalytic chemicals:
• license-to-mine - metal leasing - strategies for
mining companies and governments would give
both players a smaller short-term income than
selling the minerals but guarantee constant long-
term
25 March 2021 revenue and political stability.
Stahel Lithuania webinar 46Real wealth is
based on use, not
ownership
Aristotle
25 March 2021 Stahel Lithuania webinar 47Summary, the talk in a nutshell
4
25 March 2021 Stahel Lithuania webinar 48thank you for listening
Dr h.c. Walter R. Stahel, Visiting Professor, University of Surrey
Founder-Director, The Product-Life Institute, Geneva
www.product-life.org, wrstahel2014@gmail.com
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25 March 2021 Stahel Lithuania webinar 49You can also read
