CIO VIEW Stefan Kreuzkamp I CIO - April 2019 - DWS
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CIO VIEW Stefan Kreuzkamp I CIO April 2019 For Professional Clients MiFID Directive 2014/65/EU Annex II) only. No distribution to private/retail investors. For Qualified Investors (Art. 10 Para. 3 of the Swiss Federal Collective Investment Schemes Act (CISA)). For institutional investors only. Australia: For Professional Investors only. Further distribution of this material is strictly prohibited.
2018 – MARKETS TOLD THE ECONOMY: THAT‘S IT! 15% 8% DAX MSCI EM 2% Q1-Q3 1% So far so good, but… 10Y. 2018 S&P 500 -5% NASDAQ US-HY BUNDS -11% 2% 2018 S&P 500 DAX MSCI EM NASDAQ US-HY Q4 10Y. Worst Did not end up like this year 2018 -8% -5% BUNDS since 19011 -14% -14% -18% 16% 2019 13% 9% 10% 7% Q1 3% Best Great start to the year January 2019 since S&P 500 DAX MSCI EM NASDAQ US-HY 10Y. 1987 BUNDS 1 The worst capital-market year based on performance review since 1901, which includes 60 equity and bond markets (in USD). Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns. Sources: Deutsche Bank AG, Bloomberg Finance L.P., DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019 CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019 /2
TIME TO WORRY? MAYBE YES… /3
RISK: WEAKER GROWTH WEIGHS ON DEBT MAIN IMPACT WEIGHS ON ITALY DEBT GDP1 DEBT WEAKER GDP GROWTH in % of GDP nominal growth in % of GDP Sustainability of debt levels more challenging – higher refinancing costs & defaults 2018 Ø 2019-28 2028 60% 2.9% 40% INCREASING PRESSURE GERMANY On the ECB to stay supportive and keep interest rates low 99% 2.4% 104% FRANCE COUNTRIES AT RISK France (slightly higher debt/GDP ratios) & Italy (substantial impact due to weakness of growth) 131% 1.5% 140% ITALY 1Nominal GDP growth = real GDP + GDP deflator. For 2019 and 2020 DWS forecasts of GDP and inflation, primary balance from the EU commission. For 2021 to 2028 potential growth rate. No change in the interest rate for the whole forecasting period. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future returns. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect. Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019 CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019 /4
RISK: LIQUIDITY DRYING UP CHANGE IN CENTRAL-BANK BALANCE SHEETS Monthly change, 12-month moving average, USD bn. FORECAST1 250 CENTRAL BANKS REDUCE LIQUIDITY But due to economic-slowdown fears they 200 become more dovish 150 100 ROLE OF BANKS HAS CHANGED 50 Banks taking fewer credit & market risks 0 -50 POTENTIAL TRIGGERS Isolated events (Brexit, trade conflict) can become -100 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 systematic & have a prolonged market effect BoE BoJ ECB Fed Total 1DWS forecasts for 2019 / Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future returns. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect. Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019 CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019 /5
RISK: POPULISM REDUCES PREDICTABILITY BREXIT EUROPEAN POPULISM TRADE CONFLICT RISK CASE RISK CASE RISK CASE EU withdrawal agreement Populist parties gaining Tariffs increase further not approved, UK leaves more power – also in 10% → 25% without transition phase the European elections contagion risk from China – escalation leading to trade war Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future returns. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect. Source: DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019 CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019 /6
IT’S NOT ALL BAD HOWEVER THERE ARE REASONS FOR OPTIMISM /7
2019: ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN YES – RECESSION NO THE SLOWDOWN IN GROWTH ALSO HAS POSITIVE EFFECTS GDP GROWTH 20191 U.S. SLOWDOWN IN GROWTH Reduces risk of overheating +2.6% Euro- +1.3% INFLATION NEAR TARGET RATE zone Low oil price has more friends than enemies +6.0% China REDUCED NEED FOR FED ACTION +7.8% With less growth & controlled inflation India 1DWS forecasts for 2019, global growth expected to be at 3.5% in 2019 / Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future returns. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect. Source: DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019 CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019 /8
CENTRAL BANKS REMAIN MARKET-FRIENDLY EXPECTED RATE HIKES OUTLOOK 2019 Fed funds future rates, % 3.0 SEPTEMBER 2018 RATE-HIKE CYCLE ALMOST DONE 2.8 +2 _ Historically low rates, especially in real terms _ No rate hike in 2019 expected 2.6 DECEMBER 2018 FED _ Policy “data dependent”, soft landing possible 2.4 +1 2.2 NO NEW BOND PURCHASES CURRENT _ But reinvestment of expiring bonds 2.0 0 ECB _ Interest-rate hikes not expected until 2020 _ Financing costs remain low 1.8 2019 2020 2021 Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future returns. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect. Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019 CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019 /9
INCREASING PRODUCTIVITY EXTENDS CYCLES HIGH MARGINS – LITTLE PRESSURE WAGE GROWTH INCREASES PRESSURE TO INNOVATE Moving 12-month average, % 8-quarter lead, % PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH1 4 3 2001-2009 2010-2018 3 2 +3% +1% 2 1 Ø PROFIT MARGINS2 1 0 2001-2009 2010-2018 7% 10% 0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 -1 Productivity growth Real wage growth, right axis 1U.S. annual productivity growth in % 2 Net profit margins S&P 500 in % / Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future returns. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect. Sources: Haver Analytics Inc., Bloomberg Finance L.P., DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019 CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019 / 10
STRONG BALANCE SHEETS AND CASH FLOWS PROFIT UTILIZATION PROFIT1 INVESTMENTS CASH DEFICIT DIVIDENDS _ Profits < investments + dividends 2009 DEFICIT _ Leverage increases ×2 CASH SURPLUS _ Profits > investments + dividends 2019 SURPLUS _ Debt repayment + share buybacks 1MSCI ACWI: Expected earnings-per-share growth 2009-2019 / Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future returns. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect. Sources: FactSet Research Systems Inc., DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019 CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019 / 11
OUTLOOK 2019: NO RECESSION IN SIGHT ECONOMY CENTRAL BANKS PRODUCTIVITY CORPORATES 2019: Low, No recession Cautious Remain innovation expected, policy in solid pressure is inflation should normalization condition increasing be under control Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future returns. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect. Source: DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019 CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019 / 12
THIS CYCLE CAN LAST FOR LONGER! … BUT HICCUPS ARE POSSIBLE / 13
VOLATILITY TO STAY HIGHER VOLATILITY INCREASED WHEN FED WAS TIGHTENING % 7 60 VOLATILITY 55 6 Tended to be higher in times when the 50 Fed hiked interest rates 5 45 40 4 35 FED IS ON HOLD 3 This can change, as there is still room 30 for rate hikes – risk: inflation overshoot 2 25 20 1 15 OTHER FACTORS 0 10 Overall economic slowdown, 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 uncertainty from trade conflict, Brexit… Fed Funds Rate Vix Index, 2-years lag (3-month average), right axis Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect. Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019 CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019 / 14
VERBAL HICCUPS KEEP INVESTORS ALERT NEWS-BASED UNCERTAINTY EQUITY MARKET: TAIL RISKS REMAIN HIGH Uncertainty index, index points S&P 500 daily return distribution, number of days 250 25 30 2017 2018 25 200 20 Q4 2017 20 150 15 15 Q4 2018 10 100 10 S&P 500 5 6% 3% 4% 6% -1% 3% 7% -14% 50 5 12/2016 06/2017 12/2017 06/2018 12/2018 0 -3% -2% -1% 0% 0% 1% 2% >3% News-based economic uncertainty¹ Vix 1 The US News Based Economic Policy Uncertainty Index: Measures the news-based uncertainty about economic developments in the U.S. / Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future returns. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect. Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., 'Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty' by Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis at www.PolicyUncertainty.com, DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019 CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019 / 15
STRENGTHEN STABILITY BONDS & REAL ESTATE / 16
CORPORATE BONDS (AS FLOATER) RETURN TOTAL RETURN VARIABLE (FLOATER) RISK PREMIUM FIX FIX Usually a bit higher RISK PREMIUM OUR +30bp. RISING YIELDS Participate with floaters YIELD FORECAST1 MARKET VARIABLE VARIABLE RATE LIQUIDITY No big difference CORPORATE BOND 1 DWS expectations for the rise in interest rates on 5-year German government bonds. For 2-year-olds, we expect an increase of 20 basis points. / Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future returns. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect. Source: DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019 CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019 / 17
VALUE FOR MONEY: ASIAN CORPORATE BONDS YIELD1 LIQUIDITY HIGH-YIELD DEFAULT RATES2 4.3% 3.6% $ 250Bn. 0.4% EUROPE New issues in 2018 QUALITY (SHARE OF IG) 1.9% U.S. 1.2% 80% 1.0% ASIA EUROPE U.S. ASIA 1BofAML 5-7 Year Corporates Indices. Currency hedging costs for European investors: 3.05% 2 Current %-share of bonds in default of payment of the outstanding bond volume / Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect. Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019 CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019 / 18
EURO-DOLLAR CURRENTLY PRICED FAIRLY YIELD SPREAD U.S. / WORLD1 SHORT-TERM SIDEWARDS – COLLECT THE CARRY 5-year yield spread, % 1.8 1.5 0.9 ECB: NO RATE HIKE IN FED: END OF RATE- THE NEAR FUTURE HIKE CYCLE YIELD SPREAD U.S. TWIN DEFICIT ITALY, BREXIT U.S. TRADE POLICY -0.4 -0.7 -0.8 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 Current 1World: Average of German, New Zealand, Australian, UK & Japanese 5-year government bond yields. Current: U.S. 2.3%, World 0.5%. Highest yield spread since 1999 / Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect. Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019 CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019 / 19
SAFETY NET THROUGH REAL ESTATE EUROPE: Ø TOTAL RETURN FORECAST 2019-23 MARKET TRENDS IN % P.A.1 SHOPPING RESI- CENTER DENTIAL LOGISTICS OFFICE2 REAL-ESTATE PRICES Price increases limited, driven by rental growth (Ø 2%)3 5.0% RENTAL MARKETS Positive economic backdrop supports 3.8% demand & vacancy reduction 2.6% 2.3% FOCUS ON OFFICE Emerging locations in suburban areas City distribution, Ø total return (min – max) 1 DWS Ø total-return expectations, currency-hedged & annualized, distribution by city/country. For shopping centers, countries are compared, no cities 2 Highest expected total return in Rotterdam, lowest in Stockholm 3 Annual rental growth 2019-23, DWS expectations / Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect. Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019 CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019 / 20
SEIZE OPPORTUNITIES HIGHER RETURNS ARE POSSIBLE WITH EQUITIES / 21
EARNINGS RECESSION NO – SLOWDOWN YES EARNINGS STILL EXPECTED TO GROW IN 2019 Market earnings-growth expectations for 2019, MSCI World, % REPORTING SEASON TOTAL 10% 5% Earnings estimates being reduced CYCLICAL -$150Bn. CYCLICAL STOCKS WEAKEN Highest earnings revisions for energy DEFENSIVE STOCKS STABLE REMAIN STABLE Less sensitive to economic cycle OCTOBER 2018 MARCH 2019 Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect. Sources: FactSet Research Systems Inc., Bloomberg Finance L.P., DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019 CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019 / 22
GLOBAL & STABLE: DIVIDEND STOCKS DIVIDENDS: CONSISTENT TRACK RECORD S&P 500, indexed 3/1/1990=1 5 STABLE INCOME Even during recessions EARNINGS PER SHARE1 4 3 RISK BUFFER High long-term share of total return: 50%2 2 1 GLOBAL ALLOCATION DIVIDENDS PER SHARE Currencies as an anchor of stability 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1 Basic earnings per share for the S&P 500 2 Share of reinvested dividends in the S&P 500 total return from 1990 to 2018 / Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns.Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect. Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019 CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019 / 23
REGIONAL & CYCLICAL: GERMAN EQUITIES RELATIVELY CHEAP1 EARNINGS SPLIT2 S&P 500 AUTOMOBILES EXAGGERATED 16.5 x PESSIMISM DAX In Negative news in the 12.8 x 24% automobile & chemical industry seems to be priced in DAX AUTO CHEMICALS 6.3 x GLOBAL PLAYER 11% Profit from emerging-markets growth & possible trade deal Price-earnings ratio 2019 1DWS expectations for the price-earnings ratio next 12 months (March 2020) 2 Share of selected sectors in the 2018 earnings estimates of the Dax Index / Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect. Sources: FactSet Research Systems Inc., DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019 CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019 / 24
STAY ON THE COURSE & DIVERSIFY / 25
FUTURE RETURNS: DON’T EXPECT TOO MUCH THE EFFICIENT FRONTIER IS SHIFTING1 LAST 20 YEARS Total return p.a., % Flat curve: bond bull market, equity (EQ) 12% allocations did not pay off REALIZED SINCE 2010 10% CURRENT CYCLE (2010-2018) CIO VIEW Steep curve: central banks boosted asset prices, 8% (12 MONTHS) risk-taking was rewarded 6% LONG-TERM CIO VIEW (12 MONTHS) EXPECTATIONS Lower curve: Higher EQ allocation pays off, but 4% lower returns vs. last 10 years REALIZED 2% SINCE 1999 LONG-TERM OUTLOOK (+7Y) Flatter & lower curve: Headwinds will lower Volatility 0% returns, almost no contribution from fixed income 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 1Realized data series based on monthly data and volatility of respective observation periods. World market portfolio comprised of MSCI ACWI and Barclays Multiverse. CIO View forecast: volatility estimation based on exponentially weighted, weekly data with a half-life of 5 years. Observation period: 1/11/08 to 3/1/19. LTCMA forecast: volatility estimation based on equally weighted, monthly data since 2008. Forecasts as of December 2018. Shown results are based on index returns without any cost considerations. Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DWS Investment GmbH as of March 2019 CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019 / 26
STRENGTHEN STABILITY – SEIZE OPPORTUNITIES ECONOMIC STABILITY OPPORTUNITIES OUTLOOK CORPORATE BONDS GLOBAL DIVIDEND AGING CYCLE (EUROPE & ASIA) STRATEGIES SLOWDOWN YES – EUROPEAN GERMAN EQUITIES RECESSION NO REAL ESTATE Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future returns. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect. Source: DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019 CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019 / 27
DON’T FOCUS ONLY ON THE RISKS – YOU MIGHT OVERLOOK THE OPPORTUNITIES / 28
APPENDIX: PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST 5 YEARS (12-MONTH PERIODS) 04/14 - 04/15 04/15 - 04/16 04/16 - 04/17 04/17 - 04/18 04/18 - 04/19 S&P 500 10.7% -1.0% 15.4% 11.1% 8.3% MSCI World Index 5.4% -6.1% 12.4% 11.1% 2.2% US IG Corp 4.9% 2.8% 2.7% 0.6% 5.4% US HY 2.6% -1.1% 13.3% 3.3% 5.4% Nasdaq 20.1% -3.4% 26.6% 16.8% 10.8% DAX 19.3% -12.4% 23.9% 1.4% -7.4% UST 10yr 7.2% 4.0% -1.3% -2.7% 6.4% GER 10yr 9.7% 2.7% 0.8% -1.0% 5.6% MSCI EM 5.3% -19.8% 16.4% 19.1% -8.1% Asia Credit 5-7y 7.4% 4.8% 5.3% 0.1% 7.5% Euro Credit 5-7y 6.5% 1.8% 3.1% 1.6% 2.8% US Credit 5-7y 5.0% 3.5% 3.3% -0.1% 6.4% Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns. Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019 CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019 / 29
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