CIO VIEW Stefan Kreuzkamp I CIO - April 2019 - DWS

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CIO VIEW Stefan Kreuzkamp I CIO - April 2019 - DWS
CIO VIEW
Stefan Kreuzkamp I CIO

April 2019

For Professional Clients MiFID Directive 2014/65/EU Annex II) only. No distribution to private/retail investors. For Qualified Investors (Art. 10 Para. 3 of the Swiss Federal Collective
Investment Schemes Act (CISA)). For institutional investors only. Australia: For Professional Investors only. Further distribution of this material is strictly prohibited.
CIO VIEW Stefan Kreuzkamp I CIO - April 2019 - DWS
2018 – MARKETS TOLD THE ECONOMY: THAT‘S IT!

                                                                                                                                   15%
                                                                                          8%
                                                                                                       DAX        MSCI EM                         2%
                   Q1-Q3                                                                                                                                        1%
                                        So far so good, but…                                                                                                  10Y.
                    2018                                                              S&P 500           -5%                     NASDAQ US-HY
                                                                                                                                                             BUNDS
                                                                                                                     -11%

                                                                                                                                                                2%              2018
                                                                                      S&P 500          DAX       MSCI EM NASDAQ US-HY
                      Q4                                                                                                                                      10Y.
                                                                                                                                                                                Worst
                                        Did not end up like this                                                                                                                 year
                     2018                                                                                             -8%
                                                                                                                                                  -5%        BUNDS              since
                                                                                                                                                                                19011
                                                                                         -14%          -14%                        -18%

                                                                                                                                   16%                                          2019
                                                                                         13%
                                                                                                       9%            10%
                                                                                                                                                  7%
                      Q1                                                                                                                                        3%
                                                                                                                                                                                Best
                                        Great start to the year                                                                                                                January
                     2019                                                                                                                                                       since
                                                                                     S&P 500          DAX        MSCI EM NASDAQ US-HY                         10Y.              1987
                                                                                                                                                             BUNDS

1 The worst capital-market year based on performance review since 1901, which includes 60 equity and bond markets (in USD). Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future
returns. Sources: Deutsche Bank AG, Bloomberg Finance L.P., DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019

CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019                                                                                                                                             /2
TIME TO WORRY?
MAYBE YES…

                 /3
RISK: WEAKER GROWTH WEIGHS ON DEBT

                                                                                               MAIN IMPACT WEIGHS ON ITALY

                                                                                                                          DEBT                    GDP1                  DEBT
     WEAKER GDP GROWTH                                                                                                  in % of GDP          nominal growth           in % of GDP
     Sustainability of debt levels more challenging –
     higher refinancing costs & defaults                                                                                    2018              Ø 2019-28                   2028

                                                                                                                          60%                   2.9%                    40%
     INCREASING PRESSURE                                                                        GERMANY
     On the ECB to stay supportive and keep
     interest rates low
                                                                                                                          99%                   2.4% 104%
                                                                                                  FRANCE
     COUNTRIES AT RISK
     France (slightly higher debt/GDP ratios) & Italy
     (substantial impact due to weakness of growth)
                                                                                                                        131% 1.5% 140%
                                                                                                     ITALY
1Nominal GDP growth = real GDP + GDP deflator. For 2019 and 2020 DWS forecasts of GDP and inflation, primary balance from the EU commission. For 2021 to 2028 potential
growth rate. No change in the interest rate for the whole forecasting period. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future returns. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates,
opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect. Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019

CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019                                                                                                                                                 /4
RISK: LIQUIDITY DRYING UP

CHANGE IN CENTRAL-BANK BALANCE SHEETS
Monthly change, 12-month moving average, USD bn.
                                                                 FORECAST1
    250
                                                                                             CENTRAL BANKS REDUCE LIQUIDITY
                                                                                             But due to economic-slowdown fears they
    200
                                                                                             become more dovish

    150

    100
                                                                                             ROLE OF BANKS HAS CHANGED
     50                                                                                      Banks taking fewer credit & market risks

      0

    -50
                                                                                             POTENTIAL TRIGGERS
                                                                                             Isolated events (Brexit, trade conflict) can become
-100
    2008        2010       2012       2014       2016       2018       2020                  systematic & have a prolonged market effect
             BoE          BoJ          ECB           Fed           Total
1DWS forecasts for 2019 / Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future returns. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which
may prove to be incorrect. Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019

CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019                                                                                                                                           /5
RISK: POPULISM REDUCES PREDICTABILITY

                    BREXIT                                     EUROPEAN POPULISM                                                   TRADE CONFLICT

               RISK CASE                                                      RISK CASE                                                     RISK CASE
   EU withdrawal agreement                                          Populist parties gaining                                     Tariffs increase further
   not approved, UK leaves                                           more power – also in                                              10% → 25%
    without transition phase                                        the European elections                                      contagion risk from China
                                                                                                                                 – escalation leading to
                                                                                                                                         trade war

Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future returns. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect.
Source: DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019

CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019                                                                                                                                            /6
IT’S NOT ALL BAD HOWEVER
THERE ARE REASONS FOR OPTIMISM

                                 /7
2019:
   ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN YES – RECESSION NO

   THE SLOWDOWN IN GROWTH ALSO HAS POSITIVE EFFECTS

                       GDP GROWTH 20191
   U.S.
                                                                                                     SLOWDOWN IN GROWTH
                                                                                                     Reduces risk of overheating
                                     +2.6%

                 Euro-
                                     +1.3%                                                           INFLATION NEAR TARGET RATE
                 zone                                                                                Low oil price has more friends than enemies

                                     +6.0%
China

                                                                                                     REDUCED NEED FOR FED ACTION
                                     +7.8%                                                           With less growth & controlled inflation
           India

   1DWS forecasts for 2019, global growth expected to be at 3.5% in 2019 / Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future returns. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates,
   opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect. Source: DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019

   CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019                                                                                                                                           /8
CENTRAL BANKS REMAIN MARKET-FRIENDLY

EXPECTED RATE HIKES                                                                    OUTLOOK 2019
Fed funds future rates, %

3.0
                    SEPTEMBER 2018
                                                                                                    RATE-HIKE CYCLE ALMOST DONE
2.8
                                                                +2                                  _ Historically low rates, especially in real terms
                                                                                                    _ No rate hike in 2019 expected
2.6                  DECEMBER 2018                                                     FED
                                                                                                    _ Policy “data dependent”, soft landing possible

2.4
                                                                +1
2.2
                                                                                                    NO NEW BOND PURCHASES
                                    CURRENT
                                                                                           _ But reinvestment of expiring bonds
2.0                                                               0                    ECB
                                                                                           _ Interest-rate hikes not expected until 2020
                                                                                           _ Financing costs remain low
1.8
      2019                     2020                       2021
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future returns. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and
hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect. Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019

CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019                                                                                                                                                /9
INCREASING PRODUCTIVITY EXTENDS CYCLES

HIGH MARGINS – LITTLE PRESSURE                                             WAGE GROWTH INCREASES PRESSURE TO INNOVATE
                                                                           Moving 12-month average, %                                                        8-quarter lead, %

         PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH1                                                4                                                                                       3

      2001-2009                                2010-2018

                                                                             3                                                                                       2

       +3%                                      +1%
                                                                             2                                                                                       1

              Ø PROFIT MARGINS2
                                                                             1                                                                                       0
      2001-2009                                2010-2018

         7%                                     10%                          0
                                                                              1985       1990       1995        2000       2005       2010        2015       2020
                                                                                                                                                                     -1

                                                                                       Productivity growth                   Real wage growth, right axis

1U.S. annual productivity growth in % 2 Net profit margins S&P 500 in % / Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future returns. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates,
opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect. Sources: Haver Analytics Inc., Bloomberg Finance L.P., DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019

CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019                                                                                                                                             / 10
STRONG BALANCE SHEETS AND CASH FLOWS

PROFIT UTILIZATION

                   PROFIT1             INVESTMENTS                                                        CASH DEFICIT
                                                      DIVIDENDS                                           _ Profits < investments + dividends
2009                                                                   DEFICIT                            _ Leverage increases

                          ×2
                                                                                                          CASH SURPLUS
                                                                                                          _ Profits > investments + dividends
2019                                                                  SURPLUS
                                                                                                          _ Debt repayment + share buybacks

1MSCI ACWI: Expected earnings-per-share growth 2009-2019 / Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future returns. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and
hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect. Sources: FactSet Research Systems Inc., DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019

CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019                                                                                                                                      / 11
OUTLOOK 2019: NO RECESSION IN SIGHT

          ECONOMY                                CENTRAL BANKS                                    PRODUCTIVITY                                   CORPORATES

           2019:
                                                                                                         Low,
      No recession                                     Cautious                                                                                         Remain
                                                                                                      innovation
         expected,                                      policy                                                                                          in solid
                                                                                                      pressure is
     inflation should                                normalization                                                                                     condition
                                                                                                      increasing
    be under control

Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future returns. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect.
Source: DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019

CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019                                                                                                                                           / 12
THIS CYCLE CAN LAST FOR LONGER!
… BUT HICCUPS ARE POSSIBLE

                                  / 13
VOLATILITY TO STAY HIGHER

VOLATILITY INCREASED WHEN FED WAS TIGHTENING
%

 7                                                                                 60
                                                                                                               VOLATILITY
                                                                                   55
 6                                                                                                             Tended to be higher in times when the
                                                                                   50                          Fed hiked interest rates
 5                                                                                 45

                                                                                   40
 4
                                                                                   35                          FED IS ON HOLD
 3                                                                                                             This can change, as there is still room
                                                                                   30
                                                                                                               for rate hikes – risk: inflation overshoot
 2                                                                                 25

                                                                                   20
 1
                                                                                   15
                                                                                                               OTHER FACTORS
 0                                                                                 10                          Overall economic slowdown,
  1993           1998      2003               2008          2013          2018                                 uncertainty from trade conflict, Brexit…
                Fed Funds Rate
                Vix Index, 2-years lag (3-month average), right axis
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be
incorrect. Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019

CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019                                                                                                                                            / 14
VERBAL HICCUPS KEEP INVESTORS ALERT

NEWS-BASED UNCERTAINTY                                                                         EQUITY MARKET: TAIL RISKS REMAIN HIGH
Uncertainty index, index points                                                                S&P 500 daily return distribution, number of days

250                                                                                   25       30
                     2017                                  2018
                                                                                               25
200                                                                                   20                                                              Q4 2017
                                                                                               20

150                                                                                   15
                                                                                               15
                                                                                                             Q4 2018
                                                                                               10
100                                                                                   10
          S&P 500
                                                                                                 5
          6% 3% 4% 6% -1% 3% 7% -14%
    50                                                                            5
     12/2016          06/2017           12/2017           06/2018           12/2018              0
                                                                                                      -3%          -2%         -1%          0%
                                                                                                                                            0%           1%           2%             >3%
                   News-based economic uncertainty¹                            Vix
1 The US News Based Economic Policy Uncertainty Index: Measures the news-based uncertainty about economic developments in the U.S. / Past performance is not a reliable
indicator of future returns. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future returns. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analysis
which may prove to be incorrect. Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., 'Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty' by Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis at
www.PolicyUncertainty.com, DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019

CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019                                                                                                                                              / 15
STRENGTHEN STABILITY
BONDS & REAL ESTATE

                       / 16
CORPORATE BONDS (AS FLOATER)

               RETURN                                            TOTAL RETURN                                              VARIABLE (FLOATER)

                                                                                                                                  RISK PREMIUM

                                                                FIX

                                                                                               FIX
                                                                                                                                  Usually a bit higher
                 RISK
               PREMIUM
                                                                             OUR

                                                                           +30bp.                                                 RISING YIELDS
                                                                                                                                  Participate with floaters
                                                                 YIELD      FORECAST1
                MARKET
                                                                                               VARIABLE
                                                                VARIABLE

                 RATE

                                                                                                                                  LIQUIDITY
                                                                                                                                  No big difference
         CORPORATE BOND

1 DWS expectations for the rise in interest rates on 5-year German government bonds. For 2-year-olds, we expect an increase of 20 basis points. / Forecasts are not a reliable
indicator of future returns. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect. Source: DWS Investment
GmbH as of April 2019

CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019                                                                                                                                       / 17
VALUE FOR MONEY: ASIAN CORPORATE BONDS

YIELD1                                                     LIQUIDITY                                                   HIGH-YIELD DEFAULT RATES2

                                           4.3%

                       3.6%                                            $  250Bn.                                            0.4%                        EUROPE
                                                                       New issues in 2018

                                                            QUALITY (SHARE OF IG)                                           1.9%                        U.S.

     1.2%
                                                                                 80%
                                                                                                                            1.0%                        ASIA

    EUROPE             U.S.                ASIA

1BofAML 5-7 Year Corporates Indices. Currency hedging costs for European investors: 3.05% 2 Current %-share of bonds in default of payment of the outstanding bond volume /
Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect. Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DWS Investment
GmbH as of April 2019

CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019                                                                                                                                   / 18
EURO-DOLLAR CURRENTLY PRICED FAIRLY

YIELD SPREAD U.S. / WORLD1                                                      SHORT-TERM SIDEWARDS – COLLECT THE CARRY
5-year yield spread, %

                                                                  1.8

                1.5

    0.9
                                                                                    ECB: NO RATE HIKE IN                                 FED: END OF RATE-
                                                                                     THE NEAR FUTURE                                        HIKE CYCLE

                                                                                          YIELD SPREAD                                    U.S. TWIN DEFICIT
                                                                                           ITALY, BREXIT                                 U.S. TRADE POLICY

                                                     -0.4

                            -0.7
                                           -0.8
    1994       1999         2004           2009      2014       Current

1World: Average of German, New Zealand, Australian, UK & Japanese 5-year government bond yields. Current: U.S. 2.3%, World 0.5%. Highest yield spread since 1999 / Forecasts
are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect. Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DWS Investment GmbH as of
April 2019

CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019                                                                                                                                  / 19
SAFETY NET THROUGH REAL ESTATE

EUROPE: Ø TOTAL RETURN FORECAST 2019-23                                                       MARKET TRENDS
IN %   P.A.1

SHOPPING                  RESI-
 CENTER                  DENTIAL
                                             LOGISTICS                OFFICE2                                 REAL-ESTATE PRICES
                                                                                                              Price increases limited, driven by rental
                                                                                                              growth (Ø 2%)3

                                               5.0%                                                           RENTAL MARKETS
                                                                                                              Positive economic backdrop supports
    3.8%                                                                                                      demand & vacancy reduction
                         2.6%                                        2.3%
                                                                                                              FOCUS ON OFFICE
                                                                                                              Emerging locations in suburban areas
                 City distribution, Ø total return (min – max)

1 DWS Ø total-return expectations, currency-hedged & annualized, distribution by city/country. For shopping centers, countries are compared, no cities 2 Highest expected total return
in Rotterdam, lowest in Stockholm 3 Annual rental growth 2019-23, DWS expectations / Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analysis
which may prove to be incorrect. Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019

CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019                                                                                                                                           / 20
SEIZE OPPORTUNITIES
HIGHER RETURNS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH EQUITIES

                         / 21
EARNINGS RECESSION NO – SLOWDOWN YES

EARNINGS STILL EXPECTED TO GROW IN 2019
Market earnings-growth expectations for 2019, MSCI World, %

                                                                                                           REPORTING SEASON
TOTAL                          10%                          5%                                             Earnings estimates being reduced

CYCLICAL                                             -$150Bn.                                              CYCLICAL STOCKS WEAKEN
                                                                                                           Highest earnings revisions for energy

                                                                                                           DEFENSIVE STOCKS
STABLE                                                                                                     REMAIN STABLE
                                                                                                           Less sensitive to economic cycle

                          OCTOBER 2018                  MARCH 2019

Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect.
Sources: FactSet Research Systems Inc., Bloomberg Finance L.P., DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019

CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019                                                                                                           / 22
GLOBAL & STABLE: DIVIDEND STOCKS

DIVIDENDS: CONSISTENT TRACK RECORD
S&P 500, indexed 3/1/1990=1

    5                                                                                                         STABLE INCOME
                                                                                                              Even during recessions
                    EARNINGS PER SHARE1
    4

    3                                                                                                         RISK BUFFER
                                                                                                              High long-term share of total return: 50%2
    2

    1
                                                                                                              GLOBAL ALLOCATION
                                      DIVIDENDS PER SHARE                                                     Currencies as an anchor of stability
    0
     1990         1995         2000         2005          2010         2015

1 Basic earnings per share for the S&P 500 2 Share of reinvested dividends in the S&P 500 total return from 1990 to 2018 / Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future
returns.Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect.
Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019

CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019                                                                                                                                            / 23
REGIONAL & CYCLICAL: GERMAN EQUITIES

RELATIVELY CHEAP1                                            EARNINGS SPLIT2

    S&P 500
                                                                        AUTOMOBILES                                                  EXAGGERATED
      16.5 x                                                                                                                           PESSIMISM
                       DAX                                                                                                     In Negative news in the

                      12.8 x
                                                                                    24%                                         automobile & chemical
                                                                                                                            industry seems to be priced in

                                      DAX
                                     AUTO
                                                                           CHEMICALS
                                       6.3 x
                                                                                                                                   GLOBAL PLAYER
                                                                                    11%                                      Profit from emerging-markets
                                                                                                                             growth & possible trade deal
        Price-earnings ratio 2019

1DWS expectations for the price-earnings ratio next 12 months (March 2020) 2 Share of selected sectors in the 2018 earnings estimates of the Dax Index / Forecasts are based on
assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect.
Sources: FactSet Research Systems Inc., DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019

CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019                                                                                                                                          / 24
STAY ON THE COURSE & DIVERSIFY

                                 / 25
FUTURE RETURNS: DON’T EXPECT TOO MUCH

THE EFFICIENT FRONTIER IS SHIFTING1
                                                                                                              LAST 20 YEARS
Total return p.a., %
                                                                                                              Flat curve: bond bull market, equity (EQ)
12%
                                                                                                              allocations did not pay off
                                    REALIZED
                                    SINCE 2010
10%
                                                                                                              CURRENT CYCLE (2010-2018)
                                                              CIO VIEW                                        Steep curve: central banks boosted asset prices,
    8%                                                      (12 MONTHS)                                       risk-taking was rewarded

    6%
                                                                          LONG-TERM                           CIO VIEW (12 MONTHS)
                                                                         EXPECTATIONS                         Lower curve: Higher EQ allocation pays off, but
    4%                                                                                                        lower returns vs. last 10 years

                                                                 REALIZED
    2%                                                           SINCE 1999
                                                                                                              LONG-TERM OUTLOOK (+7Y)
                                                                                                              Flatter & lower curve: Headwinds will lower
                                                                                     Volatility
    0%                                                                                                        returns, almost no contribution from fixed income
         0%                  5%                  10%                   15%                   20%
1Realized data series based on monthly data and volatility of respective observation periods. World market portfolio comprised of MSCI ACWI and Barclays Multiverse. CIO View forecast: volatility estimation
based on exponentially weighted, weekly data with a half-life of 5 years. Observation period: 1/11/08 to 3/1/19. LTCMA forecast: volatility estimation based on equally weighted, monthly data since 2008.
Forecasts as of December 2018. Shown results are based on index returns without any cost considerations. Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DWS Investment GmbH as of March 2019

CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019                                                                                                                                                                    / 26
STRENGTHEN STABILITY – SEIZE OPPORTUNITIES

       ECONOMIC
                                                                      STABILITY                                                    OPPORTUNITIES
       OUTLOOK
                                                                 CORPORATE BONDS                                                       GLOBAL DIVIDEND
         AGING CYCLE
                                                                  (EUROPE & ASIA)                                                        STRATEGIES
    SLOWDOWN YES –                                                      EUROPEAN
                                                                                                                                       GERMAN EQUITIES
     RECESSION NO                                                      REAL ESTATE

Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future returns. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analysis which may prove to be incorrect.
Source: DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019

CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019                                                                                                                                           / 27
DON’T FOCUS ONLY ON
THE RISKS – YOU MIGHT
OVERLOOK THE OPPORTUNITIES

                             / 28
APPENDIX: PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST 5 YEARS
(12-MONTH PERIODS)

                                                04/14 - 04/15               04/15 - 04/16              04/16 - 04/17               04/17 - 04/18   04/18 - 04/19

S&P 500                                             10.7%                      -1.0%                       15.4%                        11.1%         8.3%

MSCI World Index                                    5.4%                       -6.1%                       12.4%                        11.1%         2.2%

US IG Corp                                          4.9%                        2.8%                       2.7%                         0.6%          5.4%

US HY                                               2.6%                       -1.1%                       13.3%                        3.3%          5.4%

Nasdaq                                              20.1%                      -3.4%                       26.6%                        16.8%         10.8%

DAX                                                 19.3%                      -12.4%                      23.9%                        1.4%          -7.4%

UST 10yr                                            7.2%                        4.0%                       -1.3%                        -2.7%         6.4%

GER 10yr                                            9.7%                        2.7%                       0.8%                         -1.0%         5.6%

MSCI EM                                             5.3%                       -19.8%                      16.4%                        19.1%         -8.1%

Asia Credit 5-7y                                    7.4%                        4.8%                       5.3%                         0.1%          7.5%

Euro Credit 5-7y                                    6.5%                        1.8%                       3.1%                         1.6%          2.8%

US Credit 5-7y                                      5.0%                        3.5%                       3.3%                         -0.1%         6.4%

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns. Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DWS Investment GmbH as of April 2019

CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019                                                                                                                           / 29
IMPORTANT INFORMATION: EMEA

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The information contained in this document does not constitute investment advice.

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Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical performance analysis, therefore actual results may vary, perhaps
materially, from the results contained here.

Past performance, [actual or simulated], is not a reliable indication of future performance.

The information contained in this document does not constitute a financial analysis but qualifies as marketing communication. This marketing communication is neither subject to all legal provisions ensuring the
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DWS Investment GmbH. As of: 4/2/19

CIO View / Stefan Kreuzkamp / April 2019                                                                                                                                                                         / 30
IMPORTANT INFORMATION: UK

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Therefore, actual results may vary, perhaps materially, from the results contained herein. No representation or warranty is made by DWS as to the reasonableness or completeness of
such forward looking statements or to any other financial information contained in this document.
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
© DWS 2019

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IMPORTANT INFORMATION: APAC

DWS is the brand name of DWS Group GmbH & Co. KGaA. The respective legal entities offering products or services under the DWS brand are specified in the respective contracts, sales materials and other
product information documents. DWS Group GmbH & Co. KGaA, its affiliated companies and its officers and employees (collectively “DWS Group”) are communicating this document in good faith and on the
following basis.

This document has been prepared without consideration of the investment needs, objectives or financial circumstances of any investor. Before making an investment decision, investors need to consider, with or
without the assistance of an investment adviser, whether the investments and strategies described or provided by DWS Group, are appropriate, in light of their particular investment needs, objectives and
financial circumstances. Furthermore, this document is for information/discussion purposes only and does not constitute an offer, recommendation or solicitation to conclude a transaction and should not be
treated as giving investment advice.

DWS Group does not give tax or legal advice. Investors should seek advice from their own tax experts and lawyers, in considering investments and strategies suggested by DWS Group. Investments with DWS
Group are not guaranteed, unless specified.

Investments are subject to various risks, including market fluctuations, regulatory change, possible delays in repayment and loss of income and principal invested. The value of investments can fall as well as rise
and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Furthermore, substantial fluctuations of the value of the investment are possible even over short periods of time. The terms of any
investment will be exclusively subject to the detailed provisions, including risk considerations, contained in the offering documents. When making an investment decision, you should rely on the final
documentation relating to the transaction and not the summary contained herein. Past performance is no guarantee of current or future performance. Nothing contained herein shall constitute any representation
or warranty as to future performance.

Although the information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, DWS Group does not guarantee its accuracy, completeness or fairness. No liability for any error or omission is accepted
by DWS Group. Opinions and estimates may be changed without notice and involve a number of assumptions which may not prove valid. All third party data (such as MSCI, S&P, Dow Jones, FTSE, Bank of
America Merrill Lynch, Factset & Bloomberg) are copyrighted by and proprietary to the provider. DWS Group or persons associated with it (“Associated Persons”) may (i) maintain a long or short position in
securities referred to herein, or in related futures or options, and (ii) purchase or sell, make a market in, or engage in any other transaction involving such securities, and earn brokerage or other compensation.

The document was not produced, reviewed or edited by any research department within DWS Group and is not investment research. Therefore, laws and regulations relating to investment research do not apply
to it. Any opinions expressed herein may differ from the opinions expressed by other DWS Group departments including research departments. This document may contain forward looking statements. Forward
looking statements include, but are not limited to assumptions, estimates, projections, opinions, models and hypothetical performance analysis. The forward looking statements expressed constitute the author’s
judgment as of the date of this material. Forward looking statements involve significant elements of subjective judgments and analyses and changes thereto and/or consideration of different or additional factors
could have a material impact on the results indicated. Therefore, actual results may vary, perhaps materially, from the results contained herein. No representation or warranty is made by DWS Group as to the
reasonableness or completeness of such forward looking statements or to any other financial information contained herein.

This document may not be reproduced or circulated without DWS Group’s written authority. The manner of circulation and distribution of this document may be restricted by law or regulation in certain countries,
including the United States.

This document is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, including the United
States, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject DWS Group to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction not
currently met within such jurisdiction. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of, and to observe, such restrictions.

Unless notified to the contrary in a particular case, investment instruments are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (”FDIC“) or any other governmental entity, and are not guaranteed by or
obligations of DWS Group.

© April 2019 DWS Investment GmbH

                                                                                                                                                                                                    CRC 066367 (04/2019)

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