METRO VEHICLES - GLOBAL MARKET TRENDS - Forecast, Installed Base, Manufacturers, Infrastructure and Rolling Stock Projects - SCI Verkehr
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Annex
2019
METRO VEHICLES – GLOBAL MARKET
TRENDS
Forecast, Installed Base, Manufacturers, Infrastructure and
Rolling Stock Projects
© SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • Metro Vehicles – Global Market Trends 2019 1
Annex
METRO VEHICLES – GLOBAL MARKET TRENDS
Forecast, Installed Base, Suppliers, Infrastructure and Rolling Stock Projects
Available in English from 29th May 2018.
Now you can also purchase the data annex in Excel format (see overview data sheets on page no. 6
for more information).
This study entitled “Metro Vehicles – Global Market Trends” provides a comprehensive insight into
the structure, fleets, volumes and development trends in the worldwide market for metro vehicles.
Urbanisation, the increasing mobility of people and climate change are resulting in increased demand
for modern and efficient public transport systems. Metro is a very environmentally-friendly transport
mode which has become much more important in recent years.
Based on current developments, this MultiClient Study delivers an analysis and well-founded estimate
of the market for metro vehicles and network development.
This is the seventh, updated edition of SCI Verkehr’s study analysing the global market for metro
vehicles.
In concrete terms, this market study of metro vehicles includes:
– A regionally differentiated look at the worldwide market for metro vehicles including an in-depth
analysis of all important markets of the individual countries. Network length, installed base and
average vehicle age in 2018 of all cities operating a metro system are provided
– An overview of the most important drivers behind the procurement and refurbishment of metro
vehicles in the individual regions
– A comprehensive analysis of the current fleet stocks concerning quantities and age structures as
well as future procurement potential up to 2023. An analysis of the current market shares of
important manufacturers as well as a forecast of future vehicle requirements of customers up to
2023
– A worldwide presentation of metro systems, future infrastructure projects and forecast of network
development up to 2030
– An overview of metro vehicle manufacturers including a brief description of their current range of
products and services as well as production capacities
– A condensed presentation of the most important fleet-specific features of metro vehicles of all
countries presented in detail and regions in the form of diagrams
All in all, the study provides a well-founded analysis of the worldwide market for metro vehicles. It
provides crucial, complete and differentiated information on this vehicle segment that is important for
the operational and strategic planning of players in the transport and railway industry.
Explore our additional offer of the data annex in Excel format
– All in this study displayed figures and graphs concerning markets and installed bases are
transparently and comprehensively available
– Apply the data sets for an individual evaluation and configuration or to access and supplement
available market data
This MultiClient Study is based on numerous information sources, which are continuously analysed
and evaluated, and are recorded in SCI Verkehr’s database system.
© SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • Metro Vehicles – Global Market Trends 2019 2Annex
SCI Verkehr is an independent consultancy company for the mobility sector with activities around the
world. We specialise in strategic advice to the railway and logistics industry. We have established an
international network of professional experts. Our activities focus on companies in the transport and
rail industry and in the transport operation, logistics and financial sectors, as well as the transport and
economics departments at national, regional and municipal levels.
Your contact:
SCI Verkehr GmbH
Tel: +49 221 93178 20
Fax: +49 221 93178 78
E-mail: sales@sci.de
© SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • Metro Vehicles – Global Market Trends 2019 3Annex
CONTENTS
1 Executive Summary: The World Market for Metro Vehicles .............................................. 14
2 Objective of the Study and Delimitation of the Railway Market ........................................ 28
2.1 Objective of the Market Analysis ................................................................................................28
2.2 Delimitation of the Rail Market ...................................................................................................29
3 Market Analysis Methodology ............................................................................................ 37
3.1 SCI Forecasting Tool .................................................................................................................37
3.2 After-Sales Market Forecast .......................................................................................................39
4 The Market for Metro Vehicles in Western Europe ............................................................ 41
4.1 Total Market................................................................................................................................41
4.2 Germany .....................................................................................................................................54
4.3 France ........................................................................................................................................56
4.4 United Kingdom .........................................................................................................................59
4.5 Italy .............................................................................................................................................61
4.6 Spain ..........................................................................................................................................63
5 The Market for Metro Vehicles in Eastern Europe ............................................................. 65
5.1 Total Market................................................................................................................................65
5.2 Turkey ........................................................................................................................................76
5.3 The Czech Republic ...................................................................................................................78
6 The Market for Metro Vehicles in Asia................................................................................ 79
6.1 Total Market................................................................................................................................79
6.2 China ..........................................................................................................................................94
6.3 India ..........................................................................................................................................104
6.4 Japan........................................................................................................................................110
6.5 South Korea .............................................................................................................................112
7 The Market for Metro Vehicles in North America ............................................................. 114
8 The Market for Metro Vehicles in South and Central America ........................................ 127
9 The Market for Metro Vehicles in the CIS ......................................................................... 140
10 The Market for Metro Vehicles in Africa/the Middle East ................................................ 150
11 The Market for Metro Vehicles in Australia/Pacific .......................................................... 161
© SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • Metro Vehicles – Global Market Trends 2019 4Annex
ANNEX
1 Annex A: Company Fact Sheets Metro Vehicle Manufacturers ....................................... 163
2 Annex B: Automated Guided Vehicles operating ............................................................. 212
© SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • Metro Vehicles – Global Market Trends 2019 5Annex
DATA ANNEX IN EXCEL FORMAT (ADDITIONAL OFFER)
DATA SHEETS OVERVIEW
1 Market Overview
1.1 Market Volume and Installed Base (Pivot)
1.2 Transport Performance (Pivot)
1.3 Market Volume per year (Pivot)
1.4 Network Length (Pivot)
1.5 Market Volume + Installed Base (Data)
1.6 Transport Performance (Data)
1.7 Market Volume per year (Data)
1.8 Network Length (Data)
2 Installed Base
2.1 Installed Base Country (Pivot)
2.2 Installed Base Cities (Pivot)
2.3 Installed Base Age (Pivot)
2.4 Installed Base Country (Data)
2.5 Installed Base Cities (Data)
2.6 Installed Base Age (Data)
3 Deliveries
3.1 Deliveries Manufacturer 2014-2018 (Pivot)
3.2 Deliveries Manufacturer 2009-2018 (Pivot)
3.3 Deliveries Manufacturer 2014-2018 (Data)
3.4 Deliveries Manufacturer 2009-2018 (Data)
4 Additional
4.1 Project Overview (Data)
4.2 Additional Figures
© SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • Metro Vehicles – Global Market Trends 2019 6Annex
6 The Market for Metro Vehicles in Asia
6.1 Total Market
Market Overview
Asia Metro Trend
For After- For New Installed Base
Cars 2018 59,000
Average development 2018-2023 (p. a.) 7.8%
Average age 2018 (in years) 10
Vehicles
Average volume 2017-2019 (EUR million p. a.) 4,920
Market
➔
Average development 2018-2023 (p. a.) 1.6%
Average volume 2017-2019 (EUR million p. a.) 2900
Market
Sales
Average development 2018-2023 (p. a.) 8.4%
Boom/Strong Growth Small Growth ➔ Stagnation Small Decrease Clear Decline
Volume: > +5%p.a. +2 to +5% p.a. 0 to +2% p.a. -2 to 0% p.a. +5%p.a. +2 to +5% p.a. 0 to +2% p.a. -2 to 0% p.a.Annex
1 Ahmedabad 50 Lanzhou
2 Bangalore 51 Macao
3 Bangkok 52 Manila
4 Beijing 53 Mumbai
28
5 Busan 54 Nagoya
6 Chandigarh 55 Nagpur
85 7 7 Changchun 56 Nanchang
67
31
72
8 Changsha 57 Nanjing
9 Changzhou 58 Nanning
50 4 15 64 10 Chengdu 59 Navi Mumbai
79 74
82 94
70 84 68 11 Chennai 60 Ningbo
34 93
69 14 12 Chongqing 61 Osaka
37 65
89 94
5 41
47 54 83
40 13 Colombo 62 Patna / Danapur
25
90
20 61 92 14 Daegu 63 Pune
48
57
9 46
87 15 Dalian 64 Pyongyang
61
10 86 29 71 16 Delhi 65 Qingdao
6
12 76
26 60 17 Dhaka 66 Quanzhou
16 8
56 18 Dongguan 67 Sapporo
24 38 49
35
62
23 21 19 Foshan 68 Sendai
45
17 66 78 20 Fukuoka 69 Seo-gu Daejeon
22 18 88 80
1
58
73 77
21 Fuzhou 70 Seoul
43 19
55 27 51
32 39 22 Guangzhou 71 Shanghai
81 23 Guiyang 72 Shenyang
53
63 24 Gurgaon 73 Shenzhen
59 25 Gwangju 74 Shijazhuang
33 26 Hangzhou 75 Singapore
52 27 Hanoi 76 Suzhou
3
2 11 28 Harbin 77 Taichung
29 Hefei 78 Taipei
42 30
30 Ho Chi Minh City 79 Taiyuan
13 31 Hohhot 80 Taoyuan
32 Hong Kong 81 Thane
33 Hyderabad 82 Tianjin
34 Incheon 83 Tokio
44 35 Jaipur 84 Uijeongbu
75 36 Jakarta 85 Urumqi
37 Jinan 86 Wuhan
38 Kanpur 87 Wuxi
39 Kaohsiung 88 Xiamen
40 Kawasaki 89 Xian
Metro systems in operation 36 41 Kobe 90 Xuzhou
42 Kochi 91 Yantai
43 Kolkata 92 Yokohama
Metro systems in operation, expected to 44 Kuala Lumpur 93 Yong-In
expand by more than 5 km in the period 2019-2025 45 Kunming 94 Zhengzhou
46 Kunshan
Complete new systems (Start of construction before 2025) 47 Kyoto
48 Lahore
49 Lakhnau
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
Figure 2: Overview of metro systems in Asia
Metro system in operation [km]
Asia
25,000
Forecast
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Base Case Downside Case Upside Case
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
Figure 3: Metro systems in operation in Asia
© SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • Metro Vehicles – Global Market Trends 2019 8Annex
Countries not among those considered in detail in this study have the following important current
and planned infrastructure projects:
Expected
Country City Project Title Distance in km Project status
completion
Bangladesh Dhaka Line 6 20.1 2021 Construction
Indonesia Jakarta (1) North-South corridor phase 1 15.7 2019 Construction
(Lebak Bulus - Bundaran Hl / city
centre)
Indonesia Jakarta (2) North-South corridor phase 2 8.1 2025 Planning
(Bundaran Hl - Kampung Bedan)
Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Selayang - Putrajaya 56 2021 Construction
[…] […] […] […] […] […]
Installed base/age structure
With about 59 000 operated metro cars, Asia has the largest fleet in the world. The fleet has grown
considerably through procurements in China, followed by India, in the last few years. Japan and South
Korea also have comprehensive installed bases in Tokyo and Seoul.
Installed base per country in Asia
[2018; number of cars]
China
South Korea
Japan
India
Singapore
Taiwan
Malaysia
North Korea
Thailand
Philippines
Pakistan
Vietnam
Indonesia
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
Figure 4: Metro cars in Asia by country
Indonesia and Vietnam opened very recently the first line of their new metro system in Jakarta and Ho
Chi Minh City.
© SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • Metro Vehicles – Global Market Trends 2019 9Annex
Top 10 cities for metro:
Number of metro units/cars 2018 Average age Route length
Rank Country City
Units Cars 2018 in km 2018
1 China Shanghai XXX XXX 8 686
2 China Beijing 986 5 854 XXX XXX
[...] [...] [...] [...] [...] [...] [...]
10 China Chengdu 986 5 854 4 227
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
[…]
The Asian fleet has an average age of only 10 years. Between 2014 and 2018, around XXmetro cars
were delivered to Asian cities. In China alone, nearly XX metro cars were delivered between 2014 and
2018. The old fleet, which exceeds its economical efficient life time, is mainly operated in North and
South Korea, Hong Kong and Japan.
Figure 5: Age structure of metro cars in Asia by country
Manufacturers/Products/Market Shares
In the last five years, the Asian market was dominated by CRRC, which has more than 80% market
share. Besides China and countries in Southeast Asia, where Chinese players traditionally have a
strong positioning, CRRC is increasing its market share in India. Within 2014-2018, CRRC delivered to
the following cities outside China: Nagpur, Mumbai, Kolkata and Delhi in India, Kuala Lumpur, Lahore
in Pakistan, Singapore and Bangkok. CRRC has now 5 subsidiaries producing metro vehicles: Sifang,
Zhuzhou, Nanjing Puzhen, Changchun and Dalian.
© SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • Metro Vehicles – Global Market Trends 2019 10Annex
Market shares per manufacturer in Asia
[2014-2018; Number of cars ~23100]
Kawasaki other
Bombardier 1% Manufacturers
2% 6%
Alstom
3%
Hyundai
Rotem
5%
CRRC
83%
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
Figure 6: Market shares in Asia by manufacturer
Market volume and market development
The current market volume for metro vehicles in Asia is around EUR XX million per year; for
After-Sales services it is around EUR XX million.
This market development is influenced by the following drivers:
Driver Brief description Relevance Trend
Asian cities have been heavily investing in new metro
New development and infrastructures since recent years, especially China, followed by
upgrade of infrastructure India and other countries. Investments will continue in the
➔
medium-term at a very high level.
Fleet structure Requirements for replacing vehicles which have reached an age
of 30 to 45 years, mainly in Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea
➔
Stable economic situation in the important countries of China,
India, Japan and South Korea. There is financial support by
Investment funds
international organisations for the Asian countries that are
➔
financially weaker.
Transport demand Reduction of CO2 emissions as well as climate-friendly transport
systems are of high political priority in the important countries of
Japan, South Korea and China. China in particular is becoming
increasingly aware of its pollution problem.
Environment and Increasing numbers of metropolitan areas and more traffic jams
sustainability on the roads will increase the transport demand in the
metropolises. Many cities with more than 1 million inhabitants still
have no mass transport system.
Relevance for procurements: = very high, = high, = medium, = low, = none
5-year trend: = strongly increasing, = increasing, ➔ = constant, = decreasing = strongly decreasing
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
[…]
In addition to the Chinese market, the Indian market has been also growing rapidly. The Indian market
for metro vehicles will develop dynamically for the next 20 years, at least. This is driven by a fast growing
population as well as urbanisation. Replacement procurements in Japan and South Korea are ensuring
© SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • Metro Vehicles – Global Market Trends 2019 11Annex
a constant, high-level market volume. In addition, many Southeast Asian cities are planning to develop
new metro systems.
Deliveries of vehicles ordered before 2019 [Number of cars]
Asia
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
Figure 7: Deliveries of contracted orders in Asia after 2018
Countries not among those considered in detail in this study have the following important
current and planned procurement projects:
Country/ city Units Cars Vehicle type/line Delivery Comment
Dhaka Mass Transit Company (DMTC) in cooperation
with Kawasaki Heavy Industries (KHI) and Mitsubishi
Corporation agreed on a Yen 40 bn (EUR 312 million)
contract for the supply of 24 six-car metro trains and
maintenance depot equipment for Dhaka MRT Line 6.
Cars will be 19.8 m long and equipped with CCTV and
air-conditioning due to Dhaka City´s humid climate.
Kawasaki will be responsible for the project
Bangladesh / new system; first
24 XX 2019-2021 management, design, manufacturing, testing,
Dhaka line (line 6)
commissioning and supply of rolling stock and
maintenance equipment, while Mitsubishi will be
responsible for commercial administration and supply of
depot equipment. Kawasaki will supervise maintenance
of the rolling stock and depot equipment, which will be
performed by DMTC. The north-south line 6 will be 20km
long, serving 16 stations and operates between Uttarra
North and Motijheel.
phase 1 Hyundai Rotem announced that it had been selected to
XX 2 2018 supply rolling stock for the first phase of the light metro
network under construction in Jakarta. Hyundai Rotem
worked with Woojin Industrial Systems for the supply of
Indonesia / Further eight two-car trainsets. Construction of the initial 5·8 km
Jakarta infrastructures; section between Kelapa Gading and Velodrome began
55 XX option 2021-2025 in June 2016. The rolling stock contract includes options
for up to 110 cars to operate on further phases of the
network.
[…] […] […] […] […] […]
[…]
© SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • Metro Vehicles – Global Market Trends 2019 12Annex
Annex
1 Annex A: Company Fact Sheets Metro Vehicle Manufacturers
Alstom SA
Overview
Development of revenue and EBIT
(FY ending March)
Headquarters
9.000 30,0%
48 rue Albert Dhalenne, 7.951 8.072
8.000 7.306
93482 Saint Ouen Cedex, France 6.881 25,0%
EUR million
7.000
6.139
6.000 20,0%
www.alstom.com
5.000
15,0%
Tel: +33 1 57 06 90 00 4.000
10,0%
3.000 4,9% 4,8%
7,1%
2.000 2,6% 5,0%
1.000 -3,3% 570
159 -226 358 381
0,0%
Management 0
Henri Poupart-Lafarge (CEO) -1.000 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 -5,0%
Source: Annual Report Alstom
Revenue EBIT ROS
Individual Employees
shareholders 1.0%
6.0%
Current shareholders
Alstom SA
Bougyes
28.0% Institutional
investors
65.0%
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
Revenue EBIT Order intake
Year Employees
(EUR mn) (EUR mn) (EUR mn)
2018/19 36,300 XX 570 XX
[…]
Current relevant company information
On 6 February 2019, the European Commission (EC) formally prohibited the proposed merger of the railway businesses of
Alstom and Siemens Mobility on the grounds that the merger would significantly impede competition. The two companies
had long planned to merge their railway businesses in order to face growing competition from the Chinese manufacturer
CRRC. In the view of the EC, however, the merger would create a dominant player in the European market for high-speed
trains (HGV trains) and signalling equipment, which would quickly drive up prices. Following the EC decision, business
associations and politicians from Germany and France are calling for the introduction of a new competition law in the EU.
StationOne, Alstoms autonomous online marketplace dedicated to the railway sector, was officially opened to all
customers in March 2019. StationOne connects professionals in the railway industry and is designed as an efficient way to
both promote and access the broadest possible range of mobility-related products and services. It offers parts and
commodities for mobility, with a specialisation in all areas of the railway sector, including rolling stock, infrastructure, depots
and stations. StationOne is open to products and services from all vendors of the railway sector.
© SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • Metro Vehicles – Global Market Trends 2019 13Annex A: Company Fact Sheets Metro Vehicle Manufacturers
Rolling Stock
Rolling Stock Business Overview
Recent business development
Revenue and EBIT
In FY 2018/19 Alstom’s sales reached EUR XX billion, significating a growth of about 2% compared to revenue in FY 2017/18
and a constant increase of revenues since FY 2014/15. The adjusted EBIT increased to EUR XX million, 49% above last year,
leading to an adjusted EBIT margin of XX%.
[…]
Important contracts of metro vehicles in the period 2018 – H2 2019
According to the company, it benefited from an exceptional commercial momentum in FY 2018/19 with a record high in order
intakes at EUR 12.1 billion, including various big contracts regarding metro vehicles:
– In March 2019, infrastructure manager Société du Grand Paris (SGP) and operator Ile-de-France Mobilités (IdFM) have
exercised a EUR 100 million option for the delivery of 23 three-car metros for Paris metro lines 16 and 17 from a contract
with Alstom signed in September 2018. The companies have already ordered 25 metros with six cars each. The first
metros will leave the factory in 2022, with initial entry into commercial service planned for 2024. Each train will be able to
transport around 500 passengers in its three-car version, which is 54 m in length, and around 1,000 passengers in its six-
car version with a length of 108 m.
– In February 2019, Hochbahn, the operator of the metro network in Hamburg, has received the 100th vehicle of the DT5
series from a consortium of Alstom and Bombardier. The company had ordered additional vehicles at the end of 2018. By
2020, a total of 131 DT5 metros will operate in Hamburg.
– On 19th July 2018, the Mumbai Metro Rail Corporation (MMRC) and Alstom signed a contract for the delivery of 31
driverless metros for line 3 of the metro network in Mumbai. The 25 kV AC vehicles will be formed of eight stainless-steel
bodied cars with 75% of the axles powered. Alstom will assemble eight of the vehicles in India. Deliveries will begin in
September 2020 and the first phase of the line is scheduled to open by June 2021.
[…]
Sites of final assembly Rolling Stock
Region Region Region Region Region
HST, EMU, DMU, Employees: 1,100
France La Rochelle Metro, LRV, design Production capacity:
Western centre 500 cars p.a.
Europe Employees: 1,400
France Valenciennes EMU, DMU, LRV, Metro Production capacity:
550 cars p.a.
[…] […] […] […] […]
Product segments
Market shares Important
Segment Description and main customers
(2014 – 2018) platforms
With 25 cities having ordered Metropolis metros, Alstom can
7% (WW) manufacture rolling stock at seven manufacturing sites around the
X% (WE) world. The Metropolis metros can be configured precisely to individual
Metro X%(SA) Metropolis requirements such as length, width and seating arrangements.
X% (EE)
X%(AF/ME)
[…]
© SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • Metro Vehicles – Global Market Trends 2019 14Annex B: Automated Guided Vehicles operating
2 Annex B: Automated Guided Vehicles operating
Year of Length Manu-
Country City Cars Operational parameter Type
opening (km) facturer
SeaWorld;
Australia Goldcoast 1988 2.0 9 3 stops; 1.800 passengers Von Roll Monorail
per hour; V max= 27km/h
Broadbeach;
Australia Goldcoast 1989 1.3 3 stops; 1.800 passengers Von Roll Monorail
per hour
Line 15, 6 stops
Phase 2 (estimated for Bombardie
Brazil Sao Paolo 2018 7.6 - Monorail
2021): Total length of 26.6 r
km and total of 8 stations
[…] […] […] […] […] […] […] […]
© SCI Verkehr GmbH • www.sci.de • Metro Vehicles – Global Market Trends 2019 15Order Multi Client Study
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