Canada EV Readiness Index 2023 - White Paper
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Contents Introduction 2 Key Takeaways 3 Incentives and Legislation 5 EV Adoption Rates 7 Public Charging Infrastructure 8 Climate Suitability 9 EV Availability 10 Pathways to a ZEV Fleet 12 Acknowledgement 13 Foss National Leasing: EV Readiness Index 2023 1
Introduction Are you ready for electrification? The answer to that question is more complicated than you would expect, with a range of factors that will influence the “how and when” you go electric. And these factors vary by each province or territory. The Index provides an overall province or territory assessment; with a focus on key factors that have an impact on transitioning your fleet to electric vehicles. This Index will provide another source of information that can help fleet and mobility managers make the right decisions when it comes to electrifying their fleets. Foss National Leasing: EV Readiness Index 2023 2
Key Takeaways All provinces are making efforts to get the charging and hydrogen refueling infrastructure built out. It is a combination of policy development and incentives for private partners. It’s important to note that no provinces ranked in either of the top two brackets for EV readiness. Only the provinces of British Columbia and Quebec ranked into the next bracket up from the bottom. Provinces that ranked highest are not classified as optimal environments for EV transition but are merely better prepared at this time than others. These rankings incorporate the fluidity of the transition to electric vehicles and growth of the market and will likely shift over time to provide an accurate picture of EV readiness as the landscape evolves. Climate suitability is Public charging crucial to EV readiness infrastructure lags Climate suitability plays a significant factor in the For the purpose of this index, only public charging index’s weighting system. Unlike other Canadian is assessed. It is promising that the federal readiness studies, Foss National Leasing government has made recent public charging assessed the balance of EVs and public chargers commitments, such as the planned $500 million instead of evaluating cost of charging and cost by the Canada Infrastructure Bank to build an parity between battery electric vehicles and additional 50,000 charging stations. Developing internal combustion engine vehicles. Forecasts this network of chargers will likely take years for this cost equilibrium shorten yearly, and we and make sole reliance on public charging consider climate an increasingly important factor infrastructure impossible in the short-term. to determine EV readiness. Cold environments are not yet suited to EV operation due to the impact low temperatures have on driving range, charging speed and duration. European countries like Norway have proved that it is not an impossible challenge but driving distances in Europe are much shorter than average driving distances in Canada. Foss National Leasing: EV Readiness Index 2023 3
The index ranks the provinces and territories based on four factors: EV Readiness Map • Provincial and Territory incentives & legislation Foss National Leasing Canada EV Readiness • Provincial and Territory ZEV adoption rates Index 2023 is a comprehensive analysis of the preparedness of all 10 provinces and 3 territories • Public charging infrastructure • Climate suitability The index ranks the provinces and territories EV Readiness Score ( 1 being the most EV ready and 12 being the least) EV Ready EV Accepted EV Progressive Least EV Ready 6 Yukon 12 Northwest Territories 12 Nunavut 1 British Columbia 8 7 Alberta 11 Newfoundland 9 Manitoba 2 Saskatchewan Quebec 9 Ontario 3 Prince Edward 5 Island New 4 Nova Brunswick Scotia Foss National Leasing: EV Readiness Index 2023 4
Incentives and Legislation Any law or incentive beneficial to EV ownership or usage that the province or territory has put in place. Areas of focus were vehicle purchase incentives, home charging incentives, commercial/residential infrastructure programs, and other legislation that promotes the adoption of EVs. Quebec and British Columbia currently offer the most comprehensive programs in Canada that target these areas of focus. As of January 1, 2022, charging station operators in the province of British Columbia are eligible to participate in the BC Renewable and Low Carbon Fuels Requirements Regulation and Greenhouse Gas Reduction Act (“BC-LCFS”). If you operate charging stations in a public, fleet, workplace, retail, hospitality, and multi-family residential (five or more dwelling units) location, you may be eligible to generate credits under the BC-LCFS. Quebec (Zero Emission Vehicle Standard) and British Columbia (Zero Emissions Vehicle Act) are the only two provinces in Canada that have provincial mandates for ZEV sales. The impact of this legislation is that OEMs will be prioritizing zero emission vehicles sales in Quebec and British Columbia over other provinces and territories. As of today, almost half the provinces and territories in Canada do not offer any incentives for EVs. Foss National Leasing: EV Readiness Index 2023 5
EV Incentives as of December 23, 2022 Electric Home Chargers @ HOV Toll Applicant Program Limitations Region Vehicle Charger Business Access Access Target End Date Federal Up to $5,000 N/A N/A N/A N/A Dealership March 31, Maximum 10 Government 2025 units per year (Passenger Vehicles) Federal Up to N/A N/A N/A N/A Dealership March 31, Maximum 10 Government $200,000 2026 rebates or (Med/Heavy Class 2B $1MM per Trucks) to Class 8 year Alberta N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A British Up to $3,000 50% of 50% of cost to max. Yes N/A Dealership Until funding Maximum 10 Columbia costs to max. of $2,000; $14,000 expires rebates of $350 max per workplace Manitoba N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A New Up to $5,000 Up to $750 Program funding N/A N/A Dealership, Until funding Brunswick ended Driver or expires Lessee Newfoundland Up to $2,500 N/A Up to 50% of costs N/A N/A Driver or March 15, & Labrador to max. of $5,000 Lessee 2023 per L2 charger Nunavut N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Northwest Up to $5,000 $500 N/A N/A N/A Driver or Funding Territories Lessee Expired Nova Scotia Up to $3,000 N/A N/A N/A N/A Driver or Until funding Lessee expires Ontario N/A N/A N/A Yes N/A N/A N/A N/A Prince Edward Up to $5,000 Free Level 2 N/A N/A N/A Dealership Until funding Maximum of Island expires 5 rebates per year Quebec Up to $7,000 $600 Available Yes Ferries Dealership, Expires Minimum & A30 Driver or March lease term of Lessee 31/2027 36 months for 3 or more rebates Saskatchewan N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Yukon Up to $5,000 50% of 75% of costs to N/A N/A Driver or Until funding Maximum costs to max. max. of $7,500 Lessee expires 10 units per of $750 (ends Mar. 31, 2024) year Foss National Leasing: EV Readiness Index 2023 6
EV Adoption Rates This consumer-driven factor gives us an % of New % of 2026 Rank Province indication as to which provinces and territories Vehicle Sales Target are contributing to the EV transition, through 1 British Columbia 14.6% -5.4% vehicle availability and market maturity. This factor looks at total new vehicle sales in each 2 Quebec 11.4% -8.6% province or territory and the number of those sales that are either BEV and PHEV, and BEV 3 Ontario 5.5% -14.5% only. The results were then compared to the first Prince Edward federally mandated EV sales target set for 2026 4 Island 3.3% -16.7% to better understand a province or territory’s 5 New Brunswick 2.2% -17.8% potential to meet this target in the short-term. 5 Manitoba 2.1% -17.9% Consumers in BC and Quebec lead all of Canada in new EV purchases through the first quarter of 2022. 7 Saskatchewan 1.5% -18.5% OEM production constraints and supply chain issues are expected to continue through 2022 and 8 Alberta 0.1% -19.9% 2023. This will impact the availability of EVs in the marketplace and could hamper continued growth Note: Nunavut, Northwest Territories, Yukon, in new EV sales over the short-term. Newfoundland, and Nova Scotia currently have not published ZEVs as a percentage of new vehicle sales Foss National Leasing: EV Readiness Index 2023 7
Public Charging Infrastructure This factor looks at the availability and scope of charging infrastructure in each province or territory and the impact it would have on EV adoption. Examples of some areas of focus were the number of public chargers, the number of EVSE ports per 100 EVs, and the ratio of DC Fast chargers to Level 2 chargers. As stated previously, Canada as a whole, lags behind in charging infrastructure needed. Both Federal and Provincial governments have made recent announcements related to additional investment in public infrastructure, but for the short-term, fleets will not be able to rely solely on public charging as a solution and will need to invest in home chargers for their employees and charging infrastructure at their places of work. Public EVSE Availability Map EVSE Ports per 100 EVs 40 or More 20 - 30 11 - 20 1 - 10 1 Yukon 1 Northwest Territories 0 Nunavut 3 British Columbia 23 1 Alberta 8 Newfoundland 13 Manitoba 3 Saskatchewan Quebec 5 Ontario 25 Prince Edward 16 Island New 1 Nova Brunswick Scotia Foss National Leasing: EV Readiness Index 2023 8
Climate Suitability Cold weather is known to severely impact battery 40% at -10 degrees celsius. Even hot efficiency and is therefore a significant factor in temperatures can impact battery efficiency, as assessing EV readiness. much as 20% when over 30 degrees celsius. Canada is a colder country by nature and has a The province or territory rankings are an average geographically expansive territory. EV range is score, rather than exact. Therefore, some larger an important consideration when transitioning provinces like Ontario or Quebec, may have your fleet to these vehicles, and it is important varying micro-climates less suited to EVs than to understand the impact climate can have on their score might suggest. It will still be necessary these ranges. to assess the specific location in question to determine feasibility. Based on a study Geotab completed, the optimum temperature for battery performance As technology keeps advancing, EV manufacturers was 21.6 degrees celsius. The study found continue to look to ways to reduce the negative EV Climate Suitability Scoring that a battery’s efficiency could be impacted effect of climate on battery efficiency. by as much as 20% at 0 degrees celsius and Climate Score Score KPI Temperature 4-5 no months where the 3-4 5 temparature is above 30C or 2-3 below -10C 1-2 1 or more months where the 4 temparature is above 30C or 0-1 below -10C 2 or more months where the 1.4 3 temparature is above 30C or below -10C Yukon 1.4 4 or more months where the Northwest Territories 2 temparature is above 30C or 1.4 below -10C Nunavut 6 or more months where the 4.1 1 temparature is above 30C or British below -10C Columbia 2.6 3.2 Alberta 2.0 Newfoundland 2.0 Manitoba 2.0 Saskatchewan Quebec 2.6 Ontario 4.1 Prince Edward Island 4.1 Nova Scotia Foss National Leasing: EV Readiness Index 2023 9
EV Availability (by expected release date) Data Source: https://electricautonomy.ca/ev-tracker/ Currently Delivering Auto Maker Due 2022 Due 2023 Due 2024 in Canada Acura Acura ZDX Alfa Romeo Alfa Romeo "Brennero" Arrival Arrival Van (Q4 or 2023) Audi E-tron , E-tron Sportback, e-tron GT BMW BMW iX, BMW i4 BMW i7 (Q4) Cadillac Lyriq (Q4) Cadillac Celestiq Canoo MPDV (Q4 or 2023), Pickup (Q4 or 2023) Chevrolet Bolt EUV, Bolt EV Equinox electric crossover (Q3), Blazer electric SUV (TBA), electric Silverado pickup truck (Q2) Fisker Ocean (Q4 or 2023) Pear (2024) Ford Mustang Mach-E, F-150 Lightning (Q2) Ford Explorer EV/Edge E-Transit EV Genesis G80 Electrified, GV60 Genesis GV70 (Q4 or 2023) GM BrightDrop Zevo 600 (Q4) Zevo 400 GMC Hummer EV Pickup Hummer EV SUV, Sierra EV Honda Prologue Hyundai KONA Electric, IONIQ 5 IONIQ 6 IONIQ 7 Imperium SEV (Q3 or Q4) Infiniti Jaguar Jaguar I-PACE Jeep Jeep Recon Wagoneer S Kia Niro EV, SoulEV, EV6 EV9 (Q3 or Q4) Lamborghini Foss National Leasing: EV Readiness Index 2023 10
EV Availability (by expected release date) Data Source: https://electricautonomy.ca/ev-tracker/ Currently Delivering Auto Maker Due 2022 Due 2023 Due 2024 in Canada Land Rover Range Rover Electric, Range Rover Sport Electric Lexus RZ 450e (Q4) Lotus Eletre SUV Lotus Evija Lucid Lucid Air Maserati Grecale Folgore SUV (Q3 Maserati GranTurismo or Q4) Folgore Mazda MX-30 Mercedes-AMG AMG EQS 53 4MATIC+ (Q4), AMG EQE 53 4MATIC+ (Q4) Mercedez-Benz EQS sedan EQB SUV, EQE Sedan (Q4), eSprinter (Q3 or Q4) Mercedes-Benz EQE SUV EQS SUV, MINI Cooper SE Nissan Leaf Ariya (Q3) Polestar Polestar 2 Polestar 3 Polestar 5 Porsche Taycan , Taycan Cross Macan EV Electric 718 Sports Car Turismo, Taycan Sport (2025) Turismo Ram Ram 1500 Revolution Rivian Rivian R1T (Q3), Rivian R1S (TBA) Rolls-Royce Spectre Subaru SOLTERRA (Q3) Tesla Model S , Model 3 , Model Cybertruck (Q4) , Roadster X , Model Y Toyota bZ4X (Q2) VinFast VF 8, VF 9 (Q4) Volkswagen ID.4 (Hanover Production, ID.4 (Chattanooga ID.BUZZ (2024), ID.AERO sold out) Production) (2024) Volvo XC40 Recharge , C40 Volvo EX90 Workhorse C-Series Foss National Leasing: EV Readiness Index 2023 11
Pathway to a Zero You need to plan the integration of zero emission vehicles (ZEV's) into your fleet over time. This is not Pathways to a ZEV Fleet Emissions Fleet something that happens immediately, transitioning your standard fleet vehicles takes planning, strategy, education, and time. Assess High level examination of goals, timelines and feasibility of converting your fleet. Where to Start? Design More comprehensive & detailed examination, specific plans on how to integrate hybrid/electric/hydrogen vehicles into your fleet. Implement/Pilot Execution of the plan design. Manage You've started the pilot, now it's time to focus on gathering data and analyzing in order to optimize and make long term decisions. We'll Get You There! Zero Emission One of the most important decisions you’ll make on your Fleet journey to a zero emission fleet is selecting a fleet management partner. Selecting the right partner upfront is crucial to scaling your fleet quickly, efficiently, and cost-effectively. Foss National Leasing: EV Readiness Index 2023 12
Acknowledgement Foss National Leasing understands that the EV transition happening in the automotive sector reflects a rapidly changing environment. If one province or territory has scored poorly today, that does not mean that it will continue to score poorly tomorrow. With the rapid pace of change, new technologies, and new information; Foss National Leasing will continue to monitor the impact on these factors and we will publish revised reports on an ongoing basis. For more information about sources use, please reach out to us at marketing@fossnational.com Foss National Leasing: EV Readiness Index 2023 13
Are you ready for electrification? For more information, reach out to us at marketing@fossnational.com fossnational.com Toronto T 905-886-2522 Follow us T 905-886-4244 For white papers, blogs and more, please follow/like us at: Montréal T 514-873-5932 @fossnational Calgary @fossnational T 403-663-8778 Vancouver Foss National Leasing T 604-880-1131 Toll Free in Canada 1- 800 - 461-3677
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