BOARDROOM - Walking a tightrope 150+ CEOs share their views - BusinessNZ
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Tuesday, September 24, 2019
Mood of the
BOARDROOM
nzherald.co.nz/business
Walking a
tightrope
150+ CEOs share their views
INSIDE • Fran O’Sullivan • Thomas Pippos
• Gill South • Liam Dann
• Tim McCready • Duncan Bridgeman
D2 nzherald.co.nz | The New Zealand Herald | Tuesday, September 24, 2019
MOOD OF THE BOARDROOM
Mood of the
Boardroom 2019
The Herald’s Mood of the Boardroom
What’s inside
2019 CEOs Survey attracted
participation from 157 respondents.
This year there were some 140 chief
executives including CEOs of some
of NZ’s biggest companies, some
publicly owned institutions and
heads of several influential business
organisations and several directors.
The Herald survey is conducted in
association with BusinessNZ.
BusinessNZ put 15 questions from the
survey to its membership attracting
a further 150 responses from
business heads.
The survey is now in its 18th year
having been launched in December
2002 within a NZ Herald State of the
Nation report.
Watch the debate
Finance Minister Grant Robertson Home and away The confidence National’s fast Executives’ pick
and National’s Finance — D4 trick — D6-9 learner — D13 for mayor — D14
Spokesperson Paul Goldsmith will
debate the survey results at a
breakfast at the Cordis Hotel in
Auckland this morning.
The debate will be chaired by NZME
managing editor Shayne Currie.
nzherald.co.nz will feature video
from the debate and interviews with
leading CEOs attending the
breakfast.
MOOD OF THE BOARDROOM
Executive Editor: Fran O’Sullivan
Writers: Bill Bennett, Duncan
Bridgeman, Liam Dann,
Tim McCready, Thomas Pippos and
Gill South.
Subeditor: Isobel Marriner
Cover: Richard Dale
Graphics: Richard Dale, Isobel
Marriner
Advertising: Christine Moxham
Survey Co-ordination: Natalia Banking and Orr Coalition power Tax reform in limbo
Rimell, Tania Calderon — D15-17 plays — D18-19 — D24
Mood of the Boardroom event
director: Sarah D’Audney
Growing
prosperity
and potential
nzherald.co.nz | The New Zealand Herald | Tuesday, September 24, 2019 D3
MOOD OF THE BOARDROOM
Walking a tightrope
PM loses ground in survey as CEOs cite lack of execution and failure to ignite business confidence
CEOs Optimism Index
Mood of the Are they more or less optimistic
Boardroom than one year ago about:
Fran Business situation in your
O’Sullivan industry
Weighted Average 2.37/5
P
rime Minister Jacinda Much less optimistic 17%
Ardern’s standing has taken Slightly less optimistic 45%
a tumble among CEOs re- The same as last year 23%
sponding to the Herald’s Slightly more optimistic 13%
2019 Mood of the Boardroom Survey.
Much more optimistic 2%
They now rank her fifth among the
Cabinet Ministers on her ministerial New Zealand economy
performance, marginally ahead of Weighted Average 1.96/5
New Zealand First leader Winston Much less optimistic 25%
Peters and down from her second
place ranking last year where she was Slightly less optimistic 58%
seen as the Government’s overall The same as last year 13%
standout performer. Slightly more optimistic 4%
The Herald survey, which is taken Much more optimistic 0%
in conjunction with BusinessNZ,
attracted 157 respondents from the The global economy
“big end of town” with a further 150 Weighted Average 1.70/5
SME leaders who responded to a Much less optimistic 40%
shorter version. Many of the NZX Top Slightly less optimistic 52%
50 listed companies were contribu-
tors along with chief executives from The same as last year 6%
all major trading banks, key dairy Slightly more optimistic 1%
sector players, a raft of professional Much more optimistic 1%
advisory firms and several well- Jacinda Ardern and Grant Robertson under pressure in their “Year of Delivery”
CEOs were asked to rate each factor on
placed directors. a scale of 1-5:
They cite the Prime Minister’s NZ Initiative chair Roger Partridge bate is the first time CEOs will have 1 = much less optimistic and
strengths as her celebrity and per- judged him head to head with Robert-
formance on the international stage. said the Government had shown a son in this forum.
5 = much more optimistic
Her handling of the Christchurch willingness to listen and to Among the issues concerning
Source: NZ Herald 2019 Mood of the Boardroom
CEOs Survey
massacre has been applauded by reconsider policy proposals in CEOs:
chief executives. But they say her Dealing to infrastructure const-
Government’s failure to execute in a response to evidence. raints and congestion on Auckland
timely fashion on key Government roads rate high: 86 per cent agree with
policies, combined with an inability the Prime Minister’s Business Ad-
CEOs rate the Coalition
to stoke business confidence, is con- visory Council that infrastructure is Government’s
tributing to an overall loss of confid- abysmal in some areas like address- newbie Cabinet Minister Kris Faafoi at a “crisis point”. performance in its
ence in the New Zealand economy. ing housing. in this year’s ministerial ratings this The survey also reveals 55 per cent “Year of Delivery”
Business confidence as measured “Overall the Government has been will be some comfort. It is pertinent of CEOs believe banks are scare-
by the Herald survey is now at is hopeless at meeting its own targets,” to note however, that more chief mongering when they say they will More impressive
lowest ebb across all three metrics said Devon Funds Management executives rated him “most impress- pull operations back from New Zea-
since the Global Financial Crisis. chairman Paul Glass. ive”, than any of his other colleagues. land if the Reserve Bank’s capital Taking mental health 3.24
The upshot is the Ardern Govern- “Against the hype and even with NZ Initiative chair Roger Partridge proposals are implemented. seriously
ment is now walking a tightrope as its own PR machine this Government said the Government had shown a Seventy-three per cent say Phil Maintaining fiscal 3.17
it endeavours to build momentum hasn’t delivered on its key election willingness to listen and to reconsider Goff has the best attributes to be the esponsibility
and restore domestic confidence be- policies on housing, child poverty, policy proposals in response to evi- next Mayor of Auckland. Just 11 per Supporting Māori and 2.99
fore any further international disrup- Māori economic and regional de- dence. cent rate John Tamihere. Pasifika aspirations
tion drives sentiment down further. velopment,” said a Māori business But said Mainfreight CEO Don
A leadership vacuum has opened leader. Braid, “too much time in opposition Improving child wellbeing 2.67
up domestically as the Coalition A banker said policy development has dulled the ability to deliver policy. Ardern: My hope, Progress on international 2.63
makes heavy weather out of its
efforts to cement successes in what
had a late start. “Some of the policies
are good such as the intent behind
More action. Less talk.”
New Zealand First is seen as strong
a rising tide that trade agreements
Regional development 2.56
it has promoted as its “Year of Deliv- KiwiBuild. But the execution capa- influencer within Government with will lift all boats Policy, planning and 2.08
ery”. As the adjoining table shows bility has been overestimated and leader Winston Peters being particu-
chief executives ranked the Coali- timeframes unrealistic.” larly successful in moderating Labour — D23 consultation with business
tion’s focus on taking mental health For the Finance Minister the 2019 policies that business and the farming Building a productive 1.85
seriously — one of a range of focuses survey is a mixed bag: 54 per cent of community generally opposed, such Within their own businesses, nation
in Finance Minister Grant Robertson’s respondents feel he is delivering as the capital gains tax proposals and labour and skills shortages rate as the Policy execution 1.69
first Wellbeing Budget — as the most credible economic management and employment changes. top factor keeping CEOs awake at Transforming the economy 1.64
impressive among a bunch of rated highly his maintenance of fiscal National Leader Simon Bridges, night.
indicators. But it has been rated as focus. Given he was pipped by also downgraded by CEOs this year, BusinessNZ sent 15 questions from Addressing transport 1.57
is now sitting well behind other the Mood of the Boardroom survey constraints
Said Mainfreight’s Don Braid: too colleagues such as Judith Collins in to its members. It revealed top con- Addressing the housing 1.55
their estimation of their respective cerns among its members were un- shortage/unaffordability
much time in opposition has performances. certainty about the Government’s
dulled the ability to deliver National’s Paul Goldsmith, is just policy direction, the international Less impressive
policy. More action. Less talk. three months into the job as finance trade environment and being able to Scale 1-5 where 1 = not impressive and
spokesman, but 43 per cent say he attract talent. 5 = very impressive
has the right qualities to deliver; 45 Source: NZ Herald 2019 Mood of the Boardroom
per cent are unsure. His debut in ● D30-31: Not a comfortable CEOs Survey
today’s Mood of the Boardroom de- Coalition
Legislate to remove the taint of backdoor funding
CEOs sent a clear message in the
Mood of the Boardroom survey — 75
nationals but classes New Zealand-
registered companies as local even
Transparency and in our foreign donation laws,” says
a property firm boss.
Mainfreight’s Don Braid suggests
we should have zero tolerance: “no
per cent of them agreeing the Gov-
ernment should legislate to tighten
if their control or ownership is
foreign.
awareness of who is Chorus CEO Kate McKenzie says
all donors expect to obtain some
international political donations
should be allowed.”
foreign donation laws in order to
remove the taint of backdoor funding
The donation issue was thrust into
the spotlight again last month when
donating and why influence as a result of donating,
though she is “not sure ‘foreign’
Whereas a dairy company chief
executive suggests he is “not so sure
through the use of New Zealand
companies. Just 8 per cent said this
former National Party MP Jami-Lee
Ross revealed that then trade min-
are the important donors are any better or worse —
transparency and awareness of who
about the relevance of donations,
because foreign actors are present
isn’t necessary; 17 per cent were
unsure.
ister Todd McClay had helped to
facilitate a $150,000 donation to his
things to focus on. is donating and why are the import-
ant things to focus on”.
with or without.”
However, Westpac CEO David
A parliamentary select inquiry party in 2016 from Chinese million- Kate McKenzie Chair of NZ Local Government McLean says the laws are already
committee is looking into domestic aire, Lang Lin, through his New Chorus CEO Funding Agency Craig Stobo agrees, very tight. Deloitte’s CEO Thomas
influence and interference by foreign Zealand-registered company Inner suggesting that all political donations Pippos says his sense is “this is a non-
state actors. Mongolia Rider Horse Industry NZ should be transparent, which would issue,” suggesting a greater issue
New Zealand electoral law forbids Ltd. allow “the fourth estate to then do exists with the use of social media
donations above $1500 from foreign “That is an absurdly large loophole its forensic job”. to peddle fake news.
D4 nzherald.co.nz | The New Zealand Herald | Tuesday, September 24, 2019
MOOD OF THE BOARDROOM
How CEOs ranked Cabinet on performance
Kris Faafoi Grant Robertson Andrew Little David Parker Jacinda Ardern
(Commerce/Consumer Affairs) (Finance) (Justice) (Trade and Export Growth) (Prime Minister) .
3.58/5 3.52/5 3.14/5 3.08/5 2.93/5
Winston Peters Ron Mark Damien O’Connor Tracey Martin Phil Twyford
(Foreign Affairs/Deputy PM) (Defence) (Agriculture) (Children) (Transport)
2.92/5 2.66/5 2.59/5 2.56/5 1.61/5
— (bottom ranked)
Tail-end Faafoi tops list
Commerce Minister seen as an engaging politician with a safe pair of hands, writes Fran O’Sullivan
C
ommerce Minister Kris Along with Little, who also holds KiwiBuild has not progressed as well Craig Stobo. “Hipkins’ solution to cen- of significant change and improve-
Faafoi is the politician that the prime security portfolios, Parker or as quickly as we’d hoped or tralise polytechnics doesn’t seem to ments.”
most impresses top chief ex- is seen as a highly competent minister. expected. But our ambition to build have a problem definition which is Building and Construction Minister
ecutives on their ministerial Faafoi is seen as a safe pair of more affordable houses for New Zea- very poor policy. Otago and South- Jenny Salesa had surprised, said a
performance in this year’s Herald hands. But more than that he is an landers has not changed and neither land polytechnics seem to be doing property CEO. “She has taken a com-
CEOs survey. engaging politician with a consulta- has the public appetite for the Gov- very well catering to the needs of plex portfolio, is working hard and is
It is first time in the history of the tive style who listens to business. locals.” mastering it.
Mood of the Boardroom survey that The Cabinet is driving change on Phil Twyford’s A government relations firm head “Woods is impressively smart and
a minister ranked towards the tail-end multiple fronts and some ministers was pungent. “Twyford’s performance is getting to grips with the Housing
of Cabinet at 17th position, and who are seen as making better progress in performance in both in both transport and housing has portfolio remarkably quickly.”
has only been in the position since
January, has substantially outranked
moving the machinery of Govern-
ment along than others.
transport and housing been appalling. He was lost in housing
and, on transport, allowed the Greens
Wine exporter Erica Crawford
singled out Children’s Minister Tracy
his colleagues. “Some ministers have got the bit has been appalling. He to convince him to halt nearly every Martin as the “breakout minister . . .
But Faafoi, rated at 3.58/5 for his between their teeth and are making was lost in housing. And new roading programme. David Clark she has impressed.”
ministerial performance, trumps not real progress,” said Beca Group CEO is a nice person but hasn’t a clue what The nine top rated Cabinet Minis-
only Finance Minister Grant Robert- Greg Lowe. on transport, allowed the he’s doing in health and Iain Lees- ters by business are shown in the
son (3.52/5) who was last year’s top- “Ron Mark is having a very positive Galloway can’t hide the fact he doesn’t graphic above.
rated performer in the survey, but also impact in Defence and Defence Indus- Greens to convince him like the business sector. David Parker Other ratings were: Energy Minister
Justice Minister Andrew Little (3.14/5), try, Kris Faafoi shows real understand- to halt nearly every new is blinded to rational policy with the Megan Woods (2.44/5), Regional
Trade Minister David Parker (3.08/5), ing, energy and integrity, Megan farming sector.” Economic Development Minister
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern Woods is pushing us to a better hy- roading programme. But others had distinct praise for Shane Jones (2.43/5) Social Develop-
(2.93/5) and Deputy Prime Minister drogen future, David Parker is acting Government relations firm boss. some Cabinet Ministers. “I strongly ment Minister Carmel Sepuloni
Winston Peters (2.92/5). on better water quality and Grant suspect that New Zealand owes David (2.40/5), Education Minister Chris
CEOs were asked to rate Cabinet Robertson shows a broad understand- ernment to be building affordable Parker a debt of gratitude for getting Hipkins (2.34/5), Health Minister David
Ministers on a scale of 1-5 where 1 ing of the drivers of economic homes with 60 per cent of voters in the renamed TTP ratified, despite all Clark (2.33/5), Local Government Min-
equals not impressive and 5 equals wellbeing”. a Colmar Brunton poll saying they three Coalition partners being ister Nanaia Mahuta (2.10/5), Building
very impressive. Faafoi’s portfolios also include wanted KiwiBuild to continue.” strongly opposed to it pre 2017 elec- and Construction Minister Jenny
“The unsung performers of this Broadcasting, Communications and Unsurprisingly, former Housing tion,” said ICBC NZ chair Don Brash. Salesa (2.01/5), Tourism Minister
cabinet are David Parker and Kris Digital Media, Government Digital Minister Phil Twyford tumbled from CEO respondents said it has defin- Kelvin Davis (1.96/5 and Immigration
Faafoi,” said a leading banker. “Both Services and the associate Housing seventh on last year’s Cabinet survey, itely been a tougher year for Ministers. Minister Iain Lees-Galloway (1.69/5).
have reached out to the business responsibility. The Prime Minister said where he was scored at 2.77/5, to “Lots of money allocated but no evi- ● D10: How Grant Robertson really
community to genuinely ask for our on announcing his elevation to Cabi- bottom of the pack this year at 1.61/5 dence of real changes or impact as rates
views and listened. net and membership of a new min- in the wake of the KiwiBuild fiasco. yet,” said a tech services head. “Some ● D11: How business scores the Green
“They can also put government isterial housing team led by Megan “Twyford did the right thing to of the portfolios require lengthy Ministers
policies in their areas into perspective, Woods, that “after nine years of neg- relinquish advocacy of Kiwibuild — a change programmes but in many ● D18-D19: Business puts NZ First
painting a broader picture.” lect there is a lot to fix in housing. dreadful albatross,” said LGFA chair areas we should be seeing evidence Ministers under the spotlight.
nzherald.co.nz | The New Zealand Herald | Tuesday, September 24, 2019 D5
MOOD OF THE BOARDROOM
Home and away
CEOs see Ardern as a great global cheerleader but ineffectual in NZ, writes Fran O’Sullivan
J
acinda Ardern’s New York
dance card is fully booked
with a formal meeting with
US president Donald Trump
overnight and a keynote speech at
the UN Secretary-General’s Climate
Action Summit to follow.
It is for her performance in this
theatre — the world stage — that
Ardern gets the most praise from the
nation’s top executives.
But a common theme through this
year’s Herald CEOs survey was that
the Prime Minister was at great risk
of being seen as an excellent
cheerleader for New Zealand on the
global stage, but increasingly seen as
ineffectual at getting things done at
home.
The Prime Minister’s empathetic
response to the Christchurch mass-
acre, where 51 Muslims were mur-
dered at the Al Noor and Linwood
mosques, propelled her to interna-
tional super stardom.
The world’s tallest building —
Dubai’s Burj Khalifa — was lit up with
a giant image of Ardern embracing a
woman at a Kilbirnie mosque.
The New Yorker headlined an
article “Jacinda Ardern has rewritten
the script for how a nation grieves
after a terrorist attack”, noting her
empathy and action to ban military-
style semi-automatics and insistence
on not naming the killer.
There were two glowing editorials
in the New York Times headlined
“America deserves a leader as good
as Jacinda Ardern”, and “Jacinda
Ardern leads by following no-one”. Jacinda Ardern and world leaders at the launch of the Christchurch call, in Paris (above). Below, with Twitter boss Jack Dorsey at The Beehive.
Ardern went on to leverage the
event by launching the “Christchurch aspirational style but said she was
call” to eliminate terrorist and violent PM’s score card challenged by execution. “What
extremist content online at a special How CEOs rate Jacinda Ardern’s specific actionable plans are there to
meeting in Paris hosted by French performance achieve the lofty goals espoused? The
President Emmanuel Macron. More impressive performance relative to the sexual
It is hardly any wonder that poli- claims within her party are very
tical leaders like Trump, Macron and Response to Christchurch 4.50 unimpressive and deeply cynical.”
even Chinese President Xi Jinping, terrorist massacre It was the “Ardern effect” — her
have responded to Ardern’s growing Portrays NZ appropriately 4.14 election as party leader just weeks
celebrity and met with the 39-year- offshore ahead of the 2017 election — which
old political leader. propelled Labour to the position
Chief executives responding to the Leadership of NZ 3.13 where it could become a contender
2019 Mood of the Boardroom survey Coalition management 3.01 for post-election coalition talks.
rated her response to the Christ- Courageously calls out 3.01 But Michael Barnett from the
church massacre at 4.5/5 — the high- other international political Auckland Business Chamber said the
est rating they awarded Ardern in this leaders Government was now probably at the
year’s prime ministerial scorecard. point of needing to look like a group
They were asked to rate her on a Political performance as 2.93 of leaders and not a group of one.
scale of 1-5, where 1 equals not im- prime minister This view was reflected by others.
pressive and 5 equals very impress- Courage to tackle hard 2.92 Foodstuffs CEO Chris Quin rated
ive. issues such as climate Ardern’s “fantastic personal leader-
Unsurprisingly, they also rated change ship”.
highly her ability to portray New “She needs to focus on the talent
Indulges in unnecessary 2.62
Zealand appropriately offshore of team and making tough calls and
(4.14/5). 'virtue signalling' at expense focus on the enablers that really help.
But Ardern has a weak spot. of prime relationships Doing a very good job of a complex
Though she got the tick from many masses,” said Deloitte CEO Thomas constantly as us wanting to ‘punch Administration of National 2.61 coalition. No closer to business.”
chief executives for courageously Pippos. “She is reliant on others to above our weight’ and ‘lead’ on par- Security and Intelligence “Jacinda is widely recognised on
calling out other international leaders drive the development and imple- ticular issues. portfolio the international stage in a way very
where necessary, there was growing mentation of complicated policy and “In a volatile world, we need to Child poverty reduction 2.54 few other PM’s have been,” said a
concern that she has a tendency to is severely limited in her ability to maintain friends with a lot of different responsibility director. “This gives her ‘voice’. Her
indulge in unnecessary “virtue- implement certain areas of change in countries. capacity to deliver as a PM at home
signalling” at the expense of prime part because of New Zealand First.” “Macron entertained the ‘Christ- Ability to take the country 2.38 is limited by the coalition and thin
relationships, particularly with Aus- An infrastructure consultancy church Call’ because he needs to hold with her during bench strength.”
tralia. head agreed: “The Prime Minister the Muslim vote in Paris.” transformative change Others noted she seems to be
Those international strengths also cares greatly about our people and But others said she had been very Capability to lead change on 2.15 beholden to NZ First and thus can’t
contain her weaknesses. displays empathy and humility. She impressive in raising New Zealand’s major issues get anything done.
Despite launching a Business Ad- wants a society that has more social profile globally, which is heart- Builds confidence within “It is clear that the Coalition Agree-
1.76
visory Council and holding multiple heart and no one disagrees with that. warming for Kiwis. the business community ment has bound parties to agreed
meetings with leaders, she has failed “Not all current policy initiatives Wine exporter Erica Crawford ad- policies,” said Craig Stobo, chair of the
to build confidence within the New are clear on how better outcomes will vised the Prime Minister she needs Less impressive Local Government Funding Agency.
Zealand business community. actually be created. We need to get to find her “Bill English” and be “It is very difficult to get political
CEOs rated her at just 1.75/5 on this on with the ‘doing phase’ and see if supported by a stronger team. “The CEOs were asked to rate the Prime agreement to enact new policies or
performance indicator. Her capacity these polices are really going to present team bumbles too much and Minister on a scale of 1-5 where react to economic and social change.
to lead change on major issues was work.” seem to be scared of taking decisions. 1= not impressive & 5= very impressive The oil and gas policy decision is an
also marked down to 2.15/5 along with One observant chief executive She is (maybe WAS as at 12/8) a good example of how not to consult with
Source: NZ Herald 2019 Mood of the Boardroom
her ability to take the country with pointed out it was important for the face for New Zealand but definitely CEOs Survey the business community.”
her during transformative change Prime Minister not to over-hype needs a stronger, sharper team.” In contrast to last year’s survey,
(2.38/5). either her, or, New Zealand’s interna- Crawford was referring to the staffer in her Leader’s Office could there was a great deal of derogatory
Given that her communication tional importance. sexual assault allegations which cost damage New Zealand’s international comment.
skills are her strong point, this “New Zealand needs to be very Labour Party president Nigel reputation. It may also have cost her A telling example: “The Prime Min-
cements the perception that she careful as a non-diversified, small and Haworth his job, and which are now some support with the business com- ister is a wonderful shop window —
needs to focus much more at home. remote trading economy,” said an the subject of two investigations. munity with several survey not much in store.
“The Prime Minister is a genuine energy CEO. “Overseas countries Ardern admitted before she left for respondents saying, unprompted, But said Panuku chair Adrienne
individual whose key strengths are don’t actually care about New Zea- Japan and New York that Labour’s that the sexual claims within Labour Young Cooper, “Ardern is a wonderful
around her ability to connect, project land. woeful handling of the allegations by had cast a pall over Ardern. role model to our best hope — young
empathy and communicate to the “Our cringy insecurity plays out a young party volunteer against a A finance chief praised her women.”
D6 nzherald.co.nz | The New Zealand Herald | Tuesday, September 24, 2019
MOOD OF THE BOARDROOM
US trade war with China
What’s affecting
business confidence?
Top ten domestic factors
is no laughing matter
impacting on general business
confidence
More concerned
Congestion in Auckland 7.60
Infrastructure constraints 7.39
Skills and labour 6.99
General uncertainty
Survey shows lowest global confidence rating since GFC, writes Fran O’Sullivan around the impact and
6.87
direction of current or
D
onald Trump’s twitter feed But 30 per cent disagreed. proposed Government
gives an intriguing insight “A lot of the perceptions come from policies
into the latest twists and misinformed sources,” said the chief Labour productivity 6.82
turns in the trade war he is executive of an Australian bank. “My
waging with China. But despite the perception is that many New Zealand International trade 6.81
entertainment value, the trade war is businesses are benefiting from Level and quality of 6.63
no laughing matter. investing the time and effort in under- government spending
The latest estimate, by JP Morgan standing how to do business in China.” Housing unaffordability 6.43
Chase, is that the average cost to US Chorus CEO Kate McKenzie said, “I
households will be about US$1000 think people are more aware that Employment law changes 6.27
(NZ$1585) a year after the next round there is a need for greater understand- Immigration restrictions 5.96
of tariffs on Chinese goods is imposed. ing of China and its ambitions and its
The Fed chairman, Jerome Powell, culture and how they are different Less concerned
is also reported to have linked the from Western thinking and the risks Top ten domestic factors
deterioration in the outlook for global and opportunities inherent in that.”
impacting on confidence for their
growth and weak US manufacturing Asked if Fonterra’s losses on its
own businesses
and capital spending to US trade poli- Chinese investments raised the ques-
cies. tion of whether NZ — and companies
More concerned
Back here in New Zealand, CEOs — have too many eggs in the China Labour shortages/finding 6.83
responding to the 2019 Herald survey basket and should pursue greater re- the right staff
say the trade war between the two gional diversification, some 54 per
elephants of global trade is the biggest cent of respondents said yes. General uncertainty 6.50
international issue which is impacting But 30 per cent said China wasn’t around the impact and
on business confidence. They rate the the problem. Many cited poor direction of current or
trade war’s severity at 7.65/10. investments by Fonterra. proposed Government
“We are part of the global system, “Fonterra is simply a case of poor policies
what occurs elsewhere impacts on us management and governance,” said a Infrastructure constraints 6.48
in New Zealand,” says independent leading retailer. “Regional diversifica-
International trade 5.55
director Cathy Quinn. “No one believes tion for any global player is common
environment
that we are economically isolated or sense but it won’t necessarily insulate
insulated from global events.” from global easing.” Employment law changes 5.51
Other concerns such as growing ANZ Institutional managing direc- Immigration restrictions 5.47
protectionism where new trade wars tor Paul Goodwin said, “I think China
are erupting such as that between has been a remarkable success story Level and quality of 5.34
Japan and South Korea; uncertainties for New Zealand. But we need to Government spending
about the Chinese economy and re- recognise that our dependence is sig- Housing unaffordability 5.16
surgent fears about the prospect of an nificant and each business doing busi- Restrictions on resource 5.13
international recession have ness with China needs to test itself on management/Land use
combined to send NZ CEO’s confid- what level is appropriate — normal
ence in the global economy to a record portfolio risk management practice.” Changed Reserve Bank 4.85
low on a weighted average basis of An energy sector CEO was to the policies
1.7/5 in the Herald survey — the lowest point. “We need a mature and consist- Less concerned
seen since the Global Financial Crisis. ent approach to trade deals. But the
Mainfreight’s Don Braid, whose risk of China putting a bullwhip Top 10 international issues
logistics business spans both the US through the NZ economy is real. impacting on NZ business
and China, says New Zealand business “NZ is racist towards Asian econom- confidence
should “take advantage of our neutral ies because we think colonially we are More concerned
positioning to develop more trade”. superior. Last time I looked the British
“We are an export led economy so empire was long gone.” Trade war between the US 7.65
any risks that affect confidence hurt When it came to the United States, and China
us as an importer of products and 30 per cent felt New Zealand was Protectionism 7.29
talent,” said a leading FCMG player. coming under too much US influence Uncertain Chinese 7.27
“We need policy that makes us as on key questions like using Huawei in economy
competitive as possible against much domestic 5G networks amid claims it
bigger players.” represented a security threat. International recession 7.20
Cautions leading chair Dame Alison “New Zealand is best to stay away fears
Paterson: “The environment is uncer- from the two bull elephants staring “Trump” factor – 7.06
tain and people do not perform well Perceptions of Asia survey found 32 friendly to New Zealand, compared to each other down,” said Deloitte CEO US political instability
in uncertain times.” per cent of respondents believed 62 per cent the prior year). Thomas Pippos.
Trade-related issues have pipped China posed a threat to NZ (up from Some 46 per of CEO respondents “It is too easy to become collateral Cyber security breaches 6.96
cyber-security as the number one in- 16 per cent the previous year; with 49 felt similar perceptions were also damage. US tariff hikes 6.90
ternational concern for business. per cent considering China was gaining currency in business. “One of our key strengths is our Climate change pressures 6.59
China is also flexing its muscles as global irrelevance that should allow us
Brexit uncertainty 6.34
it emerges as a leading world power “New Zealand is best to stay away to work with all.
sparking concerns about the South Cautioned a tech services head: Competition for global 5.83
China Sea and domestically with its from the two bull elephants staring New Zealand should be aware and talent
stance on human rights issues. each other down,” said Deloitte CEO operate an “eyes wide open” vigilance
Less concerned
And there are other impacts from Thomas Pippos. “It is too easy to to all international corporate intrusion.
Scale: 1= no concern and
the increasing tensions between the “This includes vigilance around
US and China — NZ’s largest trading become collateral damage. One of what the US social media giants are 10= Extremely concerned.
partner — which are spilling over to our key strengths is our global doing with our data too. Source: NZ Herald 2019 Mood of the Boardroom
affect sentiment. irrelevance” “More legislation to protect NZ and CEOs Survey
Asia New Zealand’s latest our citizens is needed here.”
Go for a bilateral FTA with United States
If a bilateral free trade deal with the “My answer is ‘probably’,” says ICBC believed to have given a commitment ahead of China ($3.3b) Westpac CEO David McLean is also
US does ever come up in talks between NZ chair Don Brash. “But it depends to support it to the president. ● #1 market for intellectual concerned New Zealand might have to
Jacinda Ardern and Donald Trump, a bit on what pound of flesh an Two-way trade has consistently property exports/charges ($243m) — give up too much.
there will be a large number of New extremely mercantilist regime in been growing between New Zealand ahead of Australia ($184m) and UK A legal firm head said it was a waste
Zealand business leaders saying, “Go Washington would extract for greater over the last 10 years. Trade with the ($57.89m) of time under the current admini-
for it”. access to the US market.” US is underpinning a crucial change On becoming president Trump stration. “Probably best to keep a low
A large majority — 79 per cent — Director Joanna Perry says New in the New Zealand economy to high pulled the US out of the TPP and began profile rather than drawing attention
of respondents to the 2019 CEOs Zealand should purse a deal if it is the value goods and services that deliver making bilateral deals with other to ourselves by attempting to seek
survey say New Zealand should pursue only way of ensuring we can continue high paying jobs. The most recent parties. what could easily be perceived as
a free trade agreement with the US. to trade with the US. trade data shows that in many of our Grant Samuel’s Michael Lorimer ‘unfair’ advantages.”
“With the breakdown in global trade “Despite my personal wish to highest value sectors the US is NZ’s urges caution: “We will get screwed Phillip Mills of Les Mills said any deal
rules and frameworks and the lack of ‘ground’ Trump, at the moment the US number one market,” under the current administration.” could not be allowed to undermine
appellate judges at the World Trade market is too important to the NZ The US is: It is a sentiment underlined by a health, social and environmental
Organisation other arrangements will economy.” ● 3rd largest export market funds boss who says better to hold out standards.
be important,” said a dairy company Foreign Affairs Minister Winston ($9.24b) — behind China ($18.95b) and with the CPTPP agreement and If a “no” Brexit occurs, we may be
boss. “But New Zealand needs to be Peters has already met twice with US Australia ($14.08b) negotiate as a bloc with the US. “By better to do a FTA with the UK,” said
selective and understanding of the Vice-President Mike Pence to press the ● 2nd largest market for services ourselves we will get screwed on dairy, Barfoot & Thompson’s Peter
trade-offs.” case for a bilateral FTA. Pence is ($3.6b) — behind Australia ($5.19b) and IP, and Pharmac.” Thompson.
nzherald.co.nz | The New Zealand Herald | Tuesday, September 24, 2019 D7
MOOD OF THE BOARDROOM
Staying agile amid What keeps CEOs
awake at night?
Fuel inquiry
gains little
global uncertainty
CEO support
45%
Sourcing and retaining skilled staff Not many respondents to the Mood of
36% the Boardroom survey think the
S
Commerce Commission’s inquiry into
park CEO Jolie Hodson fears it is about lifting the bar again.” Achieving top line revenue growth fuel prices will result in lower prices
34%
global economic uncertainly Hodson says another aspect of Agile for consumers.
could act as a brake on busi- is that it arms employees with the skills Just 15 per cent of respondents said
ness investment and con- they need for the future. Squads are Meeting customer expectations yes, with the majority — 70 per cent
sumer spending. “That said, we’ve set up to be cross-functional, which — responding no and 15 per cent are
invested heavily in our infrastructure,
as we always have done.”
means people quickly learn new ideas.
This makes them more employable. 32%
Regulatory challenges
unsure.
Hodson says after taking the com- “A key challenge is labour shortages Retail margins are small
pany on international roadshows: “In-
vestors are generally interested in the
of specialist skills in data, cybersecurity
. . . and attracting this talent to New 23% in comparison to the
sector and what we are doing
compared with what’s happening off-
Zealand,” she adds.
The move has attracted interest
Impact of policy uncertainty on overall price of fuel. An
business
inquiry will only impact
18%
shore. We’re in a strong position both from other companies in New Zealand
in terms of how we are investing and and overseas. Hodson says overseas at the margins.
how we are finding new sources of telcos, FMCGs (fast moving consumer Improving operational efficiencies
revenue. goods companies), large supermarket independent director
“Some of the markets they see have
negative yields already or negative
chains, Australian retailers and Euro-
pean companies have beaten a path 17%
Competitive pressures Look at the proportion of
interest rates. New Zealand is not there A key challenge is labour to Spark’s door in order to learn how
tax in the fuel price
yet, although we have a low 1 per cent
OCR. They see there’s some positivity shortages of specialist
this works.
Spark plans to have a 5G mobile 16% (excise duty, GST etc).
here. Like everywhere there are con- skills in data, network in place for the 2021 America’s Managing profit expectations
15%
cerns about what will happen with Cup but the project has been compli- Mark Cairns, Port of Tauranga chief
international trade and the US-China.” cybersecurity . . . and cated by the GCSB vetoing the com- executive
She says there will be an impact if attracting this talent to pany’s use of Huawei network equip- Digital disruption
that relationship were to further erode. ment. The ComCom focus is on
The technology global supply chain is
threatened, as many things are made
New Zealand. Hodson says the network will still
go ahead and selecting another partner 13%
Changing organisational culture
cost to the consumer so
in China. Jolie Hodson will not slow Spark down. of course it will.
“This isn’t only for us in New Zea-
land, but globally. In fact we’ve seen
some of the bans in the US being
Agile working flattens traditional
management hierarchies. Hodson says
She says; “We’re in our RFP (request
for proposals) process right now. We’re
likely to have more than one vendor
12%
Achieving cost reduction
Dame Alison Paterson
pushed out to a later date because of
the realisation that it does actually hit
the technology supply chain.”
this means decision-making power is
greater in Spark’s squads and tribes —
the names used for more fluid groups
in our network. That’s what we’ve seen
internationally. Most organisations
have done this”.
5%
CEO-Board relationship
The biggest increase in
Closer to home, Spark is 15 months of workers combining on projects. She A full 5G network needs new spec- prices in the last 12
into a major transformation to becom-
ing an Agile workplace. Hodson says
says Agile means there is clear linkage,
so that people can see directly how
trum, which is another potential bar-
rier, with the spectrum auction sched-
5% months outside currency
there were three drivers for the move: their work shows up for customers. uled for the end of 2020. Motivating key reports fluctuations has been the
“Improved customer experience;
speeding up our time to market and
changing employee engagement and
“For us it’s about continuing to shift
our way of working to high perform-
ance. We achieved most of what we
However, Hodson says, Spark aims
to have early access to spectrum on
a short term rental basis to cover the
2%
M&A (Threat)
action of Government.
independent director
contribution.” wanted to in the first 12 months, now America’s Cup.
EVIE, NZ’S FAVOURITE
ELECTRIC VEHICLE.
Meet the real Evie
at mercury.co.nz/evie
D8 nzherald.co.nz | The New Zealand Herald | Tuesday, September 24, 2019
MOOD OF THE BOARDROOM
Staffing a big issue for executives
Mood of the upward bias at the revenue line,
Boardroom New temporary work visa settings should be welcome relief according to Forsyth Barr research.
However, there were a number of
Duncan downgrades at the bottom line,
Bridgeman cent) still expect to increase staff Forsyth Barr notes, with earnings per
levels in the next 12 months, but they share revisions for the 2020 financial
do cite labour issues as among their year finishing with just six upgrades
T
biggest concerns. versus 16 downgrades from those
hough international trade Labour shortages featured as the that gave earnings guidance.
and domestic infrastructure biggest single domestic concern for Financial year 2021 revisions were
are clearly big issues facing survey respondents’ own businesses also net negative with 11 upgrades and
businesses at the moment, — showing up as 6.83 on a scale of 17 downgrades.
there’s no doubt getting access to one to ten. Immigration restrictions Most listed company results
skilled labour continues to be and employment law changes are on reflected solid earnings, some
challenging. the same side of the ledger, as is Ian Lees- dividend growth and strong balance
The good news is the Government labour productivity, skills and wage Galloway said sheets. However, fund managers said
is at least listening, as evidenced last increases. the visa changes when it came to companies’ outlook
week in the changes announced to In short, sourcing and retaining would assist statements, the future was clouded
the temporary migrant work visa staff is for many chief executives the between with uncertainty, particularly on the
scheme. key issue keeping them awake at 25,000-30,000 international front.
Some close attention is needed in night. businesses. It all pointed to a gradual economic
terms of the detail of the new settings So last week’s announcement by slowdown, something that showed
but most business groups from the Immigration Minister Iain Lees- jobs skill shortgages list will be effective solution to ensure employ- up in last week’s GDP figure as well.
outset have welcomed the move. Galloway around employer-assisted replaced with open access to the ers in genuine need are able to access Fonterra’s woes and its losses on
There’s also a sense of relief the temporary work visa settings should regions. the skills and attributes they need.” Chinese investments in particular are
Coalition appears to have shied away be welcome relief, particularly for Lees-Galloway said the changes It is indeed a good sign that the being closely watched by the wider
from pre-election promises to cut those in the agricultural and would assist between 25,000-30,000 government is addressing these business community, the Mood of the
down on net migration: remember NZ horticulture space. businesses to fill shortages. issues, although many firms would Boardroom survey showed.
First wanted it slashed by more than The changes, which start coming Canterbury Employers’ Chamber argue that it’s not nearly enough to Asked whether this demonstrates
80 per cent. into effect in 2020, include the of Commerce chief executive Leeann offset employment law policies, New Zealand and companies have
In fact, by May this year — some introduction of a new employer-led Watson said three-year visas and which has driven up costs and too many eggs in the China basket,
18 months after the election — the visa framework, negotiating and renewals provide continuity and compliance. around 54 per cent said yes, 30 per
annual net migration number had introducing sector agreements to confidence to both employers and Meanwhile, despite general cent said no and 16 per cent were
bounced back to near record levels. plan for future workforce needs and workers. “This is a much more uncertainty about economic risks, unsure.
“To be fair, I think the Government reinstating the ability for lower-paid businesses are remarkably upbeat Generally there does seem to be
has recognised the issue,” Alan workers to bring their families to New Does NZ have too many eggs in about their own prospects, albeit a strong sense of caution among
McDonald, Employers and Zealand. tainted by uncertainty. businesses with companies looking at
Manufacturers Association (EMA) At the same time the new visa
the China basket? Two-thirds of respondents to the global trends, including trade
general manager of advocacy, told
the Herald at the time. “They
recognised the scale of the problem
system replacing six categories will
require employers to be accredited,
increasing the expectation on
54%
yes
Mood of the Boardroom survey
reported they expect revenue growth
over the next 12 months with around
relations, and what they might mean
for the economy.
Firms are experiencing tighter
. . . they’ve listened to employers.”
That said, as the Mood of the
Boardroom survey shows, the
employers to employ and train more
New Zealanders.
The plans also include replacing
30%
no
52 per cent expecting profit growth.
This follows the recent listed
company reporting season, which
margins and are finding it
increasingly difficult to pass on
higher costs.
problems caused by skill shortages
aren’t getting any better.
A healthy number of firms (38 per
the existing skills band with
monetary thresholds aligned to the
median wage, and the higher-paid
16%
unsure
resulted in actual profit growth
slightly better than expectations and
post-result revisions showing a slight
A seemingly entrenched lack of
confidence in the Government is
adding to that uncertain outlook.
nzherald.co.nz | The New Zealand Herald | Tuesday, September 24, 2019 D9
MOOD OF THE BOARDROOM
Our confidence is waning
Business intentions
Pessimism about the economy has persisted since the change in government What CEOs are planning in the
next 12 months
B
usiness leaders are less op- concerned they are about the impact harming the possibility of a successful Capital expenditure
Confidence in the general More 43%
business situation in their own timistic than they were a of various domestic factors for busi- transition to the future of work for NZ.
sector compared to last year: year ago. A total of 62 per ness confidence, rated on a scale Aligned Government spending that is Same 32%
cent of business leaders re- where 1 = no concern and 10 = much more effective in growing pro- Less 22%
sponding to the Mood of the Board- extremely concerned. ductivity is critical.” Unsure 3%
● Agriculture
57% Less optimistic room survey say they are less optim- The top domestic factors Despite the pessimism from busi- IT expenditure
14% The same istic about the general business situa- influencing business confidence in ness, the International Monetary More 57%
29% More optimistic tion in their industry. the NZ economy are congestion in Fund released its annual review of Same 25%
Just 15 per cent feel more optim- Auckland (7.60/10) and infrastructure NZ’s economy in the last week. Less 16%
● Banking istic, 23 per cent say they feel the constraints (7.39/10). It suggests New Zealand’s econom- Unsure 2%
89% Less optimistic same level of optimism as last year. The announcement last week that ic growth is “still solid”. It says despite
11% The same Staff numbers
The figures were worse when the Auckland light rail project will be the loss of momentum in economic More 38%
0% More optimistic respondents were asked their per- delayed until at least 2021 exemplifies activity and a cooling in housing Same 33%
● Construction spective on the New Zealand econ- the lack of action that CEOs expressed markets, output has remained close Less 26%
60% Less optimistic omy. frustration on. The infrastructure to potential. It also praised the falling Unsure 3%
20% The same A full 83 per cent say they are less issue is considered in more detail on unemployment rate and the govern-
20% More optimistic optimistic than they were one year D21. ment’s Wellbeing Budget — saying it In the next 12 months CEOs expect
ago. Only 4 per cent say they are more Other major domestic factors struck the right balance between fis- their businesses to show:
● Dairy optimistic, 13 per cent say they feel impacting business confidence ac- cal prudence and tackling priorities
71% Less optimistic Revenue growth
the same as last year. cording to CEOs include the availabil- like mental health, child poverty and Yes 66%
15% The same This poor outlook aligns with other ity of skills and labour (6.99/10) and Māori and Pasifika aspirations.
14% More optimistic Same 16%
surveys of business confidence, general uncertainty around the im- Some economists say that busi-
No 15%
● Property which have shown consistent pessi- pact and direction of current or ness confidence surveys tend to be
Unsure 3%
80% Less optimistic mism about the economy since the proposed Government policies biased against Labour-led Govern-
20% The same change in government to the Labour- (6.87/10). ments, and have little correlation to Profit growth
0% More optimistic led Coalition in 2017. The most recent Foodstuffs North Island chief Chris actual economic growth. In line with Yes 52%
ANZ Business Outlook found 52 per Quin says: “Talent and Skills shortage this, Skycity chair Rob Campbell Same 25%
● Tech cent of businesses surveyed and lack of clarity and progress on suggested one factor impacting busi- No 20%
54% Less optimistic expected economic conditions to de- vocational training, along with an ness confidence is “business organisa- Unsure 3%
31% The same teriorate. unclear future of vocational training tions talking down confidence”.
15% More optimistic Respondents were also asked how and immigration settings are really — Tim McCready
Source: NZ Herald 2019 Mood of the Boardroom
CEOs Survey
Cathy Quinn, Independent and local Banking industry Dame Paula Rebstock, chair Agricultural industry
director issues Nine players in the banking ACC There were seven responses from
I am optimistic about the general including industry took part in the survey — As a large the agricultural industry, ranging
business situation for most of the where the including the top five banks: (ANZ, insurer with from meat producers to suppliers.
businesses I am involved with as we RBNZ will Westpac, ASB, BNZ and Kiwibank). a The majority (43 per cent) say they
have high quality CEOs with good land on the Of those in the banking industry, substantial expect to authorise less capital
business plans even if there are a capital 56 per cent say they expect to diversified expenditure over the next year
variety of challenges. require- authorise more capital expenditure investment compared to last. The remainder (29
The New Zealand economy seems ments for in the next year compared to last fund, we are per cent) are split between spending
tougher than 12 months ago and our banks year, 33 per cent expect it to remain concerned the same and spending more.
there is less confidence generally (and what it will mean for accessing the same, and only one respondent about the The industry is split on IT spend, with
which makes consumers more debt — the consensus by business expects it to decline. On IT spend, low-interest 43 per cent saying they expect to
cautious. people is that it will be harder which 67 per cent expect it to increase rate environment and investment spend more in the coming year, and
Trump, Boris, Brexit, the US-China will be negative to the economy). in the next year, 22 per cent expect returns, particularly given the 43 per cent saying they expect to
trade war all make the global While most business people are it to remain the same. revaluation changes impacting our spend less. Just 14 per cent expect
economy seem more uncertain and supportive of NZ facing the One third of banking leaders who liabilities. Uncertainty about the to hire more staff over the next year
certainly unpredictable. challenge of climate change there is responded expect staff number to economic outlook is a major factor compared to last, 43 per cent say
As NZ is tied to the global economy, concern about requiring some decline over the next year, 44 per influencing business sector decision- they expect to hire less.
we have to take account of that businesses to reduce emissions cent expect them to remain the making. While the Reserve Bank’s No respondent in the sector expects
uncertainty. before there are technological same, and 22 per cent expect to see recent policy easing was meant to less revenue growth over the next
All businesses are dealing with rising mechanism to achieve a reduction an increase. provide pre-emptive support, it year compared to last — 57 per cent
costs: wages, electricity and in emissions. In terms of revenue, one third signalled serious concern and has say they expect it to remain the same,
compliance costs including through Similarly, it makes no economic expect to see growth over the next added to economic uncertainty. The and 43 per cent say they expect
preparing for changes in regulation. sense to impose increased costs on year, 44 per cent expect revenue adverse effect will likely outweigh more. As for profit growth, almost
At the same time there is business NZ businesses in this context and to to remain the same, and 22 per cent any stimulus from marginally lower half (43 per cent) say they expect to
uncertainty caused by global issues give imports a free pass. expect a fall in revenue. When interest rates. The capital require- see more profit growth over the next
considering profit, 11 per cent ments review has amplified year compared to last, 29 per cent
expect to see it increase, 44 uncertainty, with it yet unclear how expect it to remain the same, 29 per
percent say it will stay the same, this might impact particular sectors cent say they think it will decrease.
Cameron Bagrie, managing challenges mean the next few years and 33 per cent expect it to decline. of the real economy. It is unclear Every respondent in the agricultural
director Bagrie Economics are likely to be tough. For the past Two-thirds are less confident about what the end game is regarding the industry says they are less optimistic
We reside in a thirty years central banks have been the economy over the next year. monetary easing cycle. Cyclical about the economy compared to this
world the big stabilisers. The remaining third say it will stay responses are being used to respond time last year. They are slightly more
(including NZ) Any problem has been attacked about the same. In terms of the to structural problems that have positive about their own industry —
where politics is through lower interest rates. They banking industry, 89 per cent are been with us for a decade. There is 29 per cent are optimistic, 14 per cent
becoming are almost out of ammunition. less optimistic, the rest expect it to limited further room for monetary are neutral. The remainder (57 per
more and more Government policy is going to be the same as last year. policy response. cent) are less optimistic.
of a shambles. become more critical and important
Central banks going forward. Both as a stabiliser,
can “fix” normal but also influencing medium-term
economic prospects and setting an Roger Partridge, chairman and of these. But but one example.
problems. The environment where society and co-founder of The New Zealand that makes it The dumbing down of New
political overlay on economic business can prosper together. Initiative all the more Zealand’s education system is the
The biggest immediate threat to the important that biggest threat to the future
global economy is the trade war we focus on prosperity and wellbeing of New
between the US and China. I expect things we can Zealanders.
Dairy industry say they expect revenue to it will be resolved within the next 12 solve — like A highly-educated workforce is
Seven dairy companies took part in the decrease. On profit growth, 57 per months as it is in the interests of both the skills and critical to a highly productive
survey, ranging from the top end of cent say they expect a growth in countries to do so. For this reason, educational workforce. Yet our school students
town to nimbler but still significant profit over the next 12 months, 14 I am slightly less pessimistic about the attainment of continue to slide down the
players. per cent expect profit to remain the global economy than I am about the our workforce (current and future), international league tables (and,
Of these, 57 per cent expect more same, and 29 per cent expect a fall domestic economy. The New Zealand the quality of our infrastructure, importantly, underperform
capital expenditure in the following in profit. economy is facing a series of series housing affordability (especially in our compared with earlier generations
year compared to last year, 29 per cent On the NZ economy compared to threats. fastest growing cities) and resource of New Zealand school students).
expect less. In terms of IT, 71 per cent one year ago, 71 per cent say they Taking a helicopter view, our two management restrictions. On all four There are encouraging signs (such
expect to spend more, 29 per cent say are less optimistic, 29 per cent say largest industries — dairy and tourism we are performing poorly. And there as the proposed NCEA reforms)
the same as last year. they are the same as last year. — are vulnerable to climate change is little cause for optimism that the however, other initiatives (like the
Over half (57 per cent) of respondents No respondent said they were policy and perceptions. necessary systemic reforms will be Tomorrow’s Schools
expect staff numbers to increase, 29 more optimistic. At the same time, successive made. And in the last few years a new recommendations) will do nothing
per cent expect them to stay the same, For the dairy industry, 71 per cent governments have failed to threat has emerged in the form of to address the more fundamental
and 14 per cent expect a fall in staff are also less optimistic compared implement policies to resolve our more activist, and less competent, problems besetting an education
numbers over the coming year. to this time last year, 15 per cent ailing productivity growth challenge. government agencies developing or system that is failing to equip many
When asked whether they expect have the same level of optimism Many factors have been blamed for contributing to policy that is poorly school-leavers with the levels of
revenue growth over the next 12 as last year. our poor productivity performance, thought through yet capable of literacy, numeracy and knowledge
months, 86 per cent say they expect Almost 14 per cent say they are including our small size and compromising the entire economy. and skills needed for today’s jobs,
more, 14 per cent say they expect the more optimistic for the year ahead geographical isolation. The Reserve Bank’s ill-conceived let alone those of the future
same. None of the dairy participants for the dairy industry. There is little we can do about either proposals to double banks’ capital is workplace.
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