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Financial Mail Page 1 -26/02/15 12:32:00 AM Financial Mail February 26, 2015 SPECIAL REPORT WWW.FINANCIALMAIL.CO.ZA Brace yourself for more tax hikes Treasury’s battle to control public finances set to continue. Page 4 Alternative scenarios for fiscal stability Treasury for the first time reveals potential fiscal disaster outcomes. Page 4 Corporate tax untouched But personal and fuel taxes are loaded. Page 18-20 Transfer duties Relief for middle class. Page 34 Land reform Modest rise in allocation aimed at boosting smallholder farms and strategic acquisitions. Page 35 Sars commissioner Tom Moyane On meeting targets in tough times. Page 14
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Financial Mail Page 3 -26/02/15 12:32:13 AM FM Contents 23 36 On the cover 8 Spiwe Chireka Telecommunications analyst 4 Tax hikes Dennis Davis Lynne Brown 4 Scenarios Tax committee Public enterprises 19 Corporate tax chairman minister 34 Transfer duty 35 Land reform 24 14 Tom Moyane Cover image: Trevor Samson 14 Dan Matjila Tom Moyane Public Investment Corp SA Revenue Service head commissioner Overview Revenue 28 Provinces 4 Budget 2015/2016 15 Tax compliance Salaries up Serious about fiscal health Looking for every cent 28 Tourism 8 Highlights and lowlights 18 Personal taxes Just don’t use electricity No shock, no delight Net cast wider 29 Education 10 Political analysis 19 Corporate tax Norms and standards to meet Not entirely convincing Rate unchanged 30 Security 14 Q&A 19 Sin taxes Could spend more Sars commissioner Tom The usual suspects 31 Infrastructure Online Moyane 20 Green taxes Impatient for action The Financial Mail’s website is —————————————————————————— Incentives to save 33 Home affairs at www.financialmail.co.za Opinion —————————————————————————— Beefing up for elections 7 Nicolaas Kruger Policy 33 Social protection Spirit of collaboration 22 Government borrowing Welfare rises 13 Blum Khan Repayments to escalate 34 Human settlements Africa beckons 23 State-owned enterprises Hard to dent backlog 17 Dylan Garnett Don’t say “privatisation” 34 Transfer duties NHI inertia 24 Personal savings Welcome relief 21 Rowan Burger Tax-free accounts 35 Rural development Long road of change 25 Small business Getting strategic 26 Khanyi Nzukuma One-stop supplier database 36 Telecommunications Twitter Boost for broadband Improving saving 25 Skills development Follow the FM on 37 Mining 32 Sibusiso Mabuza Desperate measures @FinancialMail Invest for sustainability —————————————————————————— Phakisa treatment 38 Mark van der Watt Spending E-mail Look at your personal plan 27 Health fmmail@fm.co.za Bailout for laboratory service February 26 - March 4, 2015 Financial Mail 3
Financial Mail Page 4-5 -25/02/15 11:11:04 PM FM Overview ‘‘ could fall to 1% this year. Likewise, if global growth slows by more than anticipated by the IMF, causing export commodity prices to slide by a further 10%, SA’s growth performance could come in at SLOW GROWTH PUTS LONG-TERM SOCIOECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION PROJECT AT RISK 1,5% this year and 2,1% in 2016 (see graph). According to treasury officials, the reason for disclosing these in-house scenarios is LUNGISA FUZILE that the uncertainty over both the SA and the global economic outlook is higher than normal. There are question marks over the poten- ance Fund contributions worth about next two years and freezing personnel tial for a further slowdown in China, the R15bn). The deficit is still forecast to taper to numbers. sustainability of the low oil price and the 2,6% in 2016/2017 and 2,5% thereafter. But it is going to be a big stretch for SA to effect of monetary stimulus in Europe, not SA’s problem is that serial growth dis- bring the deficit down to 2,5% over the to mention whether or not another Eskom appointments, coupled with a lax wage dis- medium term while still upholding Nene’s silo could collapse. pensation and years of strong spending pledge to protect spending on core social Despite the downside risks to the growth growth, have saddled the country with a and economic programmes. outlook, treasury assumes that after two structural mismatch between revenue and “The key challenge will be to reduce real lean years SA’s growth will pick up to an expenditure. expenditure growth to 2,1% [as budgeted] above-potential 3% in 2017. As a result, government debt has almost over the next three years while getting more Flowing from this, the budget deficit is doubled from 21,8% at the start of the global bang for our buck. There is still a long grind set to narrow from 3,9% in 2014/2015 to 2,5% financial crisis in 2008/2009 to 40,8% in ahead,” says Kamp. Trevor Samson by 2017/2018, with government net loan debt 2014/2015. Interest payments on this debt, at Reuss agrees. He fears that by not having Tom Moyane, Nhlanhla Nene, Mcebisi Jonas and Lungisa Fuzile stabilising below 44% in the same year. R115bn this fiscal year, have become the raised taxes by a larger amount now, trea- Finance minister and his men arrive for budget speech This adheres closely to the fiscal con- fastest-growing item of government expen- sury hasn’t left itself much room to solidation path set out in the mini-budget in diture. SA is budgeting to spend a shocking manoeuvre on the expenditure side. This October. SA’s ability to meet these targets is raises the implementation risk, espe- BUDGET 2015/2016 a key indicator used by credit rating agen- cies to judge whether the country is serious GDP GROWTH cially around the current wage nego- tiations with public sector unions. Straining the limits about stopping the erosion of its public Economic scenarios to 2017 The Budget Review identifies three finances. main risks to the fiscal outlook: that With SA’s sovereign credit rating on the Percentage change (y-o-y) growth turns out weaker than expect- skids towards junk status, no slippage on 3,0 ed; that the public sector wage settle- these targets can be countenanced. So the ment comes in significantly above consistency of the 2015 budget should be 2,5 consumer inflation; and that public well received by the credit rating agencies. entities require direct support or The budget shows government is serious It says it has no choice but to hike taxes and curb expenditure, even though SA’s Standard & Poor’s MD for SA and sub- Saharan Africa Konrad Reuss welcomes the 2,0 guarantees beyond current estimates. This first risk — that growth turns about returning SA to fiscal health muted economic outlook suggests the very fact that the 2015 budget sticks to the medi- out to be weaker than expected — opposite is necessary. um-term plan to reverse SA’s debt dynam- 1,5 would reduce revenue collection, HSBC’s SA economist David Faulkner ics, as well as its “measured, balanced widen the primary balance and raise S points out that SA’s weak growth outlook approach”. Base debt-service costs. outh Africans should brace them- WHAT IT move, generating an extra and energy supply concerns have made this For despite SA’s growth slowdown, 1,0 Lower global growth Economists have questioned the MEANS selves for a tough few years of high- R6,4bn in the coming fiscal fiscal consolidation task more difficult, and finance minister Nhlanhla Nene looks set to More binding electricity wisdom of treasury repeatedly build- Less binding electricity er taxation as government seeks to year. that several risks remain. narrowly beat his 2014/2015 consolidated 0,5 ing an automatic growth upswing into close the hole in the national budget, hampered by a weak and uncertain growth GROWTH Analysts are surprised that the wealthy weren’t “However, we think these fiscal adjust- ments are necessary for SA to start sta- budget deficit target of 4,1% of GDP. He has revised the deficit to 3,9%, owing 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 consecutive budgets. In fact, treasury’s growth forecasts outlook. FORECAST singled out to bear a dis- bilising its debt levels and make the public partly to stellar personal tax collection (due SOURCE: NATIONAL TREASURY have had to be revised down for five Before accounting for fiscal drag, nearly CUT TO proportionate burden of the finances sustainable over the medium term.” to high wage increases) and the fortuitous years in a row. R17bn will be clawed back from taxpayers in DISMAL 2% tax hike and relieved that Treasury has cut its growth forecasts to rebasing of GDP data — a routine statistical R420bn on debt service costs over the next But without an acceleration in growth, 2015/2016 through a variety of measures, there was no growth- below those of the IMF and the Reserve exercise which has had the effect of narrow- three years, which reflects average nominal SA’s deficit and debt trajectories would including a one percentage point increase in DEFICIT sapping increase in taxes on Bank as well as the prevailing consensus to a ing the 2014/2015 deficit as a percentage of growth in interest payments of 9,4% over worsen. The budget hangs together only as the marginal personal income tax rates of all NARROWS TO savings and investment. dismal 2,0% for 2015 and 2,4% in 2016 from GDP by 0,2 percentage points. this period. long as economic growth recovers. but the lowest earners. This is the first time in two decades that 3,9% IN “To the extent that this was a shift, it was a shift in 2,5% and 2,8% previously. For the first time, the Budget Review Other lucky breaks that have eased SA’s fiscal bind include the fact that cheap oil has Government debt has now climbed to the point where Nene says “if we don’t deal Treasury director-general Lungisa Fuzile defended the treasury’s growth forecasts as the overall personal income tax burden has 2014/2015 the right direction,” says reveals some alternative scenarios that lowered the inflation trajectory, allowing with it, by 2016 we will be paying more in realistic at a pre-budget briefing, saying: “We been raised. But because these hikes will be Sanlam Investment Man- national treasury fears could materialise if departments to buy more goods and ser- interest than in social grants”. care about our credibility and wouldn’t put almost fully offset by adjustments for fiscal agement economist Arthur Kamp. “It’s pos- the core assumptions underpinning its vices without breaching the expenditure To reassert control over the fiscus, Nene them out there if we didn’t think they were drag, a large part of the tax changes will fall sible that if we look back in a few years’ growth forecast turn out to be incorrect. ceiling. It may also help facilitate a sus- remains committed to the plan he outlined achievable.” on indirect, consumption taxes. time we will view this as the budget that For instance, it warns that its 2% real tainable wage agreement. in the mini-budget in October. But he is under no illusion that the eco- Of these, the fuel levy is taking the turned us back into safer waters.” GDP forecast for 2015 is premised on the Nene has revised next year’s budget In addition to tax increases, curbs on nomy faces a difficult few years. In the biggest hit. It will be hiked by a hefty 80,5c/l. Treasury has made no bones about the assumption that there will be intermittent deficit target from 3,6% to 3,9% of GDP (in wastage, and the deficit-neutral financing of foreword to the Budget Review, he says “slow This will raise government’s take-out from fact that SA’s public finances are straining load-shedding. Should there be further dete- order to give employers and employees a state-owned enterprises, it still involves economic growth puts our society and long- 27,6% of the petrol price to 41% in one swift the limits of debt sustainability. rioration in electricity availability, growth one-year holiday on Unemployment Insur- reducing expenditure by R25bn over the term socioeconomic transformation project 4 Financial Mail February 26 - March 4, 2015 February 26 - March 4, 2015 Financial Mail 5
Financial Mail Page 6 -26/02/15 12:03:22 AM FM Overview STATE APPLIES BRAKES at risk” and suggests that the solution to Between 2006/2007 and 2010/2011, faster, investment-led growth lies in imple- national and provincial personnel expendi- menting the National Development Plan. Consolidated government fiscal framework ture grew by over 15%/year “despite little Konstantin Makrelov, national treasury’s evidence of a corresponding improvement 2014/15 chief director of economic modelling and 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 in service delivery”. Revised forecasting, concedes that the required esca- Rbn % of GDP estimate Medium term estimates Between 2007/2008 and 2010/2011, total lation in economic growth from 1,5% in 2014 local government personnel spending to 2,4% in 2016 and 3% in 2017 is steep in an Revenue 1 091,0 1 188,9 1 331,5 1 439,5 increased by 60% from R27bn to more than environment where confidence is low. 28,1% 28,4% 29,3% 29,2% R43bn. Expectations that the economy is capable of Expenditure 1 243,4 1 351,0 1 448,8 1 561,7 In addition, national treasury estimates growing at only 2,0%-2,5% are in danger of 32,0% 32,2% 31,9% 31,7% that most public sector workers are in the becoming self-fulfilling, he fears. top 30% of wage earners nationally. “Typic- Budget balance -152,4 -162,2 -117,3 -122,2 But treasury believes that beyond 2016 -3,9% -3,9% -2,6% -2,5% ally, higher-income earners experience the electricity constraint will be far less inflation in line with or slightly below con- binding. This, accompanied by the removal SOURCE: NATIONAL TREASURY sumer inflation,” it notes, “yet wage of other domestic supply-side bottlenecks demands remain in excess of CPI inflation.” and improvements in the global economy, In addition, it stated that the Davis tax The third risk raised by treasury is that should allow SA to achieve 3% growth by committee has noted that compared with public entities may require direct support or 2017. rates in other countries, there also appears guarantees beyond current estimates. “If the economy does OK we won’t need to be some scope to increase taxes on capital According to the Budget Review, net loan to raise taxes, but if the growth doesn’t income and Vat. debt is set to stabilise at under 45% in the materialise we’ll be faced with another The Budget Review says the tax committee medium term. round of tax increases in 2016,” an official at will publish reports on these and other However, SA’s total public sector debt the SA Revenue Service told the Financial taxes, as well as the overall tax system, soon (which includes the liabilities of state- Mail during pre-budget technical briefings. and adds ominously that “these reports will owned companies and local government) This suggests it would be wise for tax- inform policy considerations in the 2016 was 59,1% in 2013/2014. payers to start preparing for further mild tax budget”. This is hardly a sustainable number. increases over the medium term, given the The second major risk to SA’s fiscal out- In recognition of this threat, the Budget uncertain growth outlook. look is that the public sector wage settle- Review for the first time devotes an entire Though the 2015 budget leaves the com- ment comes in significantly above consumer chapter to the financial position of public pany tax rate unchanged at 28% and Vat at inflation. sector institutions. It concludes that 14%, the door was left open to a future hike Treasury has allowed for the compen- “although the solvency of these institutions in Vat with treasury noting in the Budget sation budget to grow by just 6,6% in nomi- is strong overall, several poorly performing Review that “since Vat is directed at con- nal terms over the next three years. The and inefficient entities represent significant sumption, it is regarded as more efficient budget also assumes that the overall head risks to public finances”. than other taxes with a less damaging count will stabilise at current levels, allow- This is probably the closest any finance impact on long-term economic growth”. ing the share of compensation to stabilise at minister has come to publicly lambasting about 40% of noninterest spending state-owned entities for the damage being SPENDING CATEGORIES over the medium term. In October, treasury warned that done to the fiscus by their mismanagement and perennial demands for bail-outs. Spending growth by economic classification any departure from the path of CPI- One example of this is the fact that 50c of linked cost-of-living adjustments the 80,5c/l increase in the fuel levy will have Next three years: Last three years: would require a reallocation of to be sidelined to cover the R98,5bn un- 2014/15 - 2017/18 2011/12 - 2014/15 resources from other spending areas funded liability the Road Accident Fund has (capital, goods and services, transfers) accumulated. Most of this is owed to 9,4 or prompt a need to reduce govern- lawyers, not victims of road accidents. Interest payments ment employment. In general, government is working with “Whatever happens [in the current all state-owned enterprises to develop sus- 8,9 wage negotiations] it shouldn’t tainable financial frameworks supported by Capital payments impact on our deficit,” Nene told turnaround plans. journalists in a pre-budget briefing, The bottom line is that treasury has 7,1 Capital transfers but added that it would be “a sad delivered a realistic budget which makes a situation” if SA reached the point genuine attempt to correct the fiscal mis- 6,9 where it was paying more for wages takes of the past without resorting to heavy- Current transfers than on providing services. handed tax measures or growth-sapping and subsidies The 2015 Budget Review goes fur- cuts to departmental budgets. 6,6 ther than previous budget documents What the 2015 budget cannot do is Compensation in asserting that one of the main rea- double as a growth strategy or a job-creation sons for SA’s structural budget deficit plan. There is no fiscal room to do more 5,1 is that the state has been too lax on than protect capital budgets while re- Goods and services wages and personnel growth. doubling efforts to root out wastage and It reveals that over the past corruption so that every tax rand goes 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 decade, public sector unit labour further. It is up to the rest of government % growth costs have increased by more than now to play its part. Claire Bisseker SOURCE: NATIONAL TREASURY 80% in real terms. bissekerc@fm.co.za 6 Financial Mail February 26 - March 4, 2015
Financial Mail Page 7 -25/02/15 10:13:55 PM FM Opinion Nicolaas Kruger The spirit of collaboration In the new global context, we urgently need to rediscover the spirit of collaboration and sharing within and between countries I n an increasingly connected yet con- tions and narrow interests are graphic endowments, as well as ingrained not only in our socio- its national and regional unique- strained world, it is quite clear that political and socioeconomic ness. SA cannot afford to be greater collaboration is required. fabric, but across the world. sidestepped in the opportunity However, a common cause and shar- If we gloss over how chal- of an Africa rising. lenging it is to achieve real, Besides the objectives and ing of resources is easy to envisage, practical collaboration, we run plans it espouses, the National but difficult to achieve, and requires a rad- the risk of relegating it to just Development Plan points to the another catchphrase. As such, it need for deep transformation in ical recommitment to forgo self-interest for will have little credibility or cur- our society; from entitlement to collective wellbeing. Collaboration across rency in accelerating the pos- inclusiveness. We need to return itive change we need. To create to the dream on which our different spheres of society, and the conditions necessary for col- nation was built, to remember laboration, for the sake of our that “I am what I am because of within and between different grappling with poverty, inequal- collective future, will take bold who we all are”. Indeed, we organisations, countries and ity, geopolitical conflict and and visionary leadership in all have found ways to co-operate regions, has never been more environmental degradation, just sectors of society. and collaborate across deep necessary than it is today. Tack- as they are looking to harness In SA, the common cause of divides before. The miracle of ling the compounding chal- the profound possibilities of the nation building remains elusive, SA’s transition to democracy is lenges we face and finding the digital revolution. as witnessed in the hostile activ- known around the world for the solutions and advances we need The Davos conclusion was ity on the afternoon of the state unlikely collaboration it for a better quality of life for the urgent need for a spirit of of the nation address. The required, across all spheres of global citizens rests on sharing collaboration and sharing within divides reflected that day would our society. our talents, skills, perspectives and between countries. This is seem unbridgeable. We have to It is time again for a radical and means. just as true in Europe, where the demonstrate our resilience and recommitment from all SA’s At the recent World Econom- European Union is under con- guard against focusing too leaders in government, business ic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, siderable pressure to balance the inwardly during this difficult and civil society to forgo self- the “new global context” framed needs of its disparate member phase of development of our interest for collective wellbeing. the discussions. Rather than states, as it is in Africa, as its young democracy, to avoid the Only from there can we begin merely highlight how connected characterisation changes in the weakening of our relative posi- the delicate and difficult work of the world is becoming, the key story of global growth. tion in Africa. turning the noble concept of insight in considering this global Connectivity and collabora- The message from Davos was ubuntu into a working reality, of context is how interdependent tion are obvious corollaries, and positive: Africa’s attractiveness once again making collaboration we are as risk and opportunity it is useful to discuss them in for increased foreign attention the hallmark of our leadership globalise. concept. The reality, however, is and capital is undisputed, and style and the cornerstone of our Countries across the globe, that historical divisions, nation- there is a growing understand- nation’s future. ■ developed and developing, are alistic tendencies, partisan posi- ing of its vast natural and demo- Kruger is CEO, MMI Holdings February 26 - March 4, 2015 Financial Mail 7
Financial Mail Page 8-9 -25/02/15 09:43:27 PM FM Overview HIGHLIGHTS & LOWLIGHTS there could be further short- to medium- term windfalls here. Budget Review notes that real expenditure growth over the three-year period will actu- much illumination on the energy supply crisis that, some economists believe, could No need to panic . . . yet However, should SA not find growth ally be slower than it has been over the past trip up even pedestrian economic growth traction fairly quickly, there are ominous three years, though the pace of spending forecasts for the next few years. references to possible tax changes in the across platforms will differ. He acknowledges that security and medium term outside Nene’s prepared Spending growth for social services reliability of energy supply are primary speech. (social protection, health, basic education challenges in dealing with structural and The detailed Budget Review book indicates and local economic development) will competitiveness issues hampering produc- that the Davis tax committee, convened by increase 7,2% over the medium term but tion and investment in the economy. But the Judge Dennis Davis in 2013, has shown that, spending on general public services will budget speech threw no new light on Minister avoids big compared with rates in other countries, there appears to be “some scope” to increase slow to 2,6%. Still, there will be serious questions developments; it simply reiterated the sup- port package. shocks but doesn’t taxes on capital income, marginal personal around the sustainability of the current lev- Nene was asked at the media briefing to tax income rates and indirect taxes such as els of government expenditure. Right now, identify state assets that would be put up for offer much in the fuel levies and value added tax (Vat). government debt as a percentage of gross sale to underpin the funding package ear- National treasury expects reports marked for Eskom. He declined to way of nice surprises on the overall tax system — Vat, estate offer further detail, explaining that duty, wealth and mining taxes — to be national treasury was at an advanced either, writes Marc published soon. These reports will stage of leveraging resources. “We inform policy considerations for the will only come back to you [with the Hasenfuss 2016 budget, with possibilities around detail] once the sale has been con- N Vat probably generating most debate. cluded,” he said. ervous discussions around how Nene confirmed that national treasury In fact, there might have been a an increasingly brittle fiscal foun- wanted to allow for further consul- hint of desperation when Nene reck- dation could possibly sustain a tation on Vat. oned the best short-term prospects much heavier debt burden — While SA’s 14% Vat rate compares for faster growth lay in less energy- especially when private-sector growth favourably with that in other countries intensive sectors such as tourism, engines lack power — had raised fears of a (where rates of over 20% can apply), it agriculture, light manufacturing and budget horror show. seems unlikely that Nene will impose housing construction. “These are The dreaded “T” word was once again a blanket increase in the medium sectors that employ more people, and bandied about, possibly the first time in term. More likely is a customised so they contribute to more inclusive about two decades that South Africans have approach: perhaps zero-rating a few growth. Efforts to support these sec- seriously fretted about a bigger income tax more “essential” household items and tors have to be intensified.” targeting luxury goods with higher Vat Dennis Davis Business Day burden. Whether economic hubs outside Thankfully there were no big shocks (or levels. His committee showed the local mining sector can drive many pleasant surprises) in the 2015 budget, The intimation is that the Davis some scope for tax hikes growth remains to be seen. But if and finance minister Nhlanhla Nene exuded committee report could considerably growth does not come, Nene’s grip on Trevor Samson a reassuring pragmatism in his maiden widen the tax net in the next three government expenditure becomes all speech. At the pre-speech media briefing, he Nhlanhla Nene years if growth remains sluggish. This needs domestic product (GDP) is shifting uncom- the more critical when there is unrelenting observed: “The economy has deteriorated Warning on to be put in context. fortably towards 50%. It was closer to 25% political pressure to spend. but the fiscal package holds. For that reason debt ratio Arguably the most worrying admission in before the global financial crisis of late 2008. Nene indicated that government pro- there are no surprises.” the Budget Review documents is that debt So gearing is at levels that are tough to posed reducing the expenditure ceiling by a The ever-watchful rating agencies, per- servicing is the fastest-growing item of service when the country’s prowess as a sizeable total of R25bn in the next two years. haps recognising that Nene had little room expenditure. Debt servicing has increased at competitive economy (even with a markedly He detailed encouraging efforts to cut to manoeuvre, economically or politically, an annual average of 10,1% on the back of weaker rand and a benign inflation environ- spending on catering, entertainment and will probably be placated, for now. increases in government borrowing since ment) is clearly waning. venues by 8%/year, while travel and sub- But perhaps there’s much more that ably informed by low levels of economic that are more palatable if taken with the 2008/2009. This, in turn, reflects govern- One journalist at the media briefing sistence will be cut back by 4% annually in could be done (and said) than reinforcing activity and restrained consumer spending recent fuel price drops that have resulted ment’s growing commitments to local reminded Nene that his predecessor had real terms. notions that there is a firm hand holding the that has hampered growth in many listed from a weaker crude oil price. development and social infrastructure — “capped” the debt-to-GDP ratio at 38%. The But there appears to be an escape clause. country’s purse strings. companies. These will, along with the traditional “sin with health expenditure set to top R178bn in ratio has since moved to 45% and, at the The budget framework includes an un- It could be argued that Nene needed to Dividends tax has declined for two con- tax” increases on alcohol and tobacco, bring 2017/2018 and education R640bn in the next pre-budget briefing, there was no indication allocated contingency reserve of R5bn next grasp a few nettles, backing up his call to secutive years but one hopes any decision in an additional R8,3bn in 2015/2016 in a three years. that a new cap had been set. year, followed by R15bn for 2016/2017 and “address economic restraints, improve our around increasing the current rate will be relatively painless manner. The cost is punitive, with interest on state Of course, the elephant in the parlia- R45bn for 2017/2018. growth performance, create work opportu- deferred as mining-company profits recover On the other hand, the proposed tem- debt set to jump from R115bn this year to mentary chamber was Eskom, and it was This might be deemed a convenient nities and broaden economic participation”. from the prolonged strike and commodity porary increase in the electricity levy (from R153bn in 2017/2018. perhaps the one really disappointing aspect political fall-back, giving government a tap One possible interpretation of the budget prices firm. 3,5c/kWh to 5,5c/kWh) might upset some. It’s not as if Nene hasn’t noticed this of the budget that the problems being faced that can be turned on to fund whatever it speech might be: “We are not in a panic . . . The hike in income taxes — which had There is cold comfort in Nene’s insistence alarming pressure point. At the media brief- by the power utility were not addressed deems a spending priority. but we might be in a few years if the econ- not been proposed in the budget for many that the additional amount will be with- ing he conceded that “if we don’t do some- more frankly and in considerably more Nene noted the arrangement took into omy does not buck up.” years — was largely expected. In truth, the drawn once the electricity shortage is over. thing we will be paying more interest than detail. account the uncertain economic outlook Investors will breathe an initial sigh of quantum of the increase (one percentage It’s also worth noting that mining and social grants by 2016”. There is already a grudging admission in and the fact that weaker growth and rising relief that there was no increase in corporate point for all taxpayers earning more than petroleum royalty revenues rose sharply In this scenario, one has to realise that the public sector that Eskom will not be a interest rates were possible. He added, taxes. Neither was there — as some stock- R181 900/year) is far less than anticipated. when production was resumed after the consolidated government expenditure is quick fix, and it may take up to five years to perhaps ominously, that national treasury brokers had feared — a hike in the unpopu- Another smart tax initiative was to hike prolonged platinum mining strike. As profit- projected to grow by 7,9% from R1,24 trillion restore the electricity supply to acceptable was also mindful that public service salary lar tax on dividends. The decision around the general fuel levy by 30,5c/l and the Road able production increases in conjunction in 2015/2016 to R1,56 trillion in 2017/2018. levels. negotiations still needed to be concluded. ■ corporate and dividends tax was presum- Accident Fund levy by 50c/l — measures with potentially higher commodity prices, This is 2,3%/year ahead of inflation. But the Nene’s references to Eskom won’t offer hasenfussm@fm.co.za 8 Financial Mail February 26 - March 4, 2015 February 26 - March 4, 2015 Financial Mail 9
Financial Mail Page 10-11 -25/02/15 11:11:44 PM FM Overview POLITICAL ANALYSIS the ANC. But this lack of consensus on an economic plan that will speed up trans- by the increase in electricity and fuel levies, which will add to the cost of doing business. cially given government’s need to placate public-sector employees ahead of the 2016 Unconvincing formation without harming production and DA parliamentary leader Mmusi municipal election. Public-sector wages investment is not limited to the ANC Maimane does not believe Nene’s budget have been increasing along with the coun- alliance. It extends to Zuma’s cabinet. And does enough to encourage people to start try’s deficit. They now consume 12% of GDP no-one is confident that the domestic obsta- small businesses, so critical to job creation. and 34% of government’s total expenditure. cles to growth will be dealt with, as Nene “The budget is a call for taxpayers to pay The wage bill in provincial departments says they must be. For example, the Budget government more while it goes about doing is the largest component of spending, at 77%, Review documents call for the regulatory more of the same,” Maimane says. and yet the vacancy rate in provinces high- burden on business to be eased in order to Nene’s plan for economic rehabilitation lights how provincial departments, which Sowetan Korea and Singapore because it was attract investment: hinges on structural reform — away from spend 43% of the national budget, are bat- implemented by strong, visionary “Restoring confidence in the future consumption- to investment-led growth. tling with too few skills. While this under- leaders,” says UCT political scientist growth of the economy is the key to unlock- Achieving this depends on business, labour mines service delivery, national treasury Zwelethu Jolobe. ing the long-term investment commitment and government agreeing to and rallying continues trying to find creative ways of It’s true that the fiscal package of private funds,” reads the Budget Review, behind a single plan; it also depends on an ensuring that the provinces spend money on Nene presented in response to the which says the regulatory burden on busi- efficient, cost-effective state. policy priorities without threatening their difficult economic predicament SA ness is receiving attention. The public-sector wage negotiations, now independence. finds itself in hasn’t changed sig- Nene says government is reconsidering on the go, will be the first test of how Meanwhile, Nene has budgeted for a 6,6% nificantly from the one he present- the implications the stricter visa regulations seriously Nene’s budget will be taken, espe- increase for all civil servants. The public ed in his medium-term budget last will have on tourism. But this begs the ques- servants, however, are demanding 15%. They ‘‘ October. National treasury hopes tion of how the regulations were adopted by do not appear to have any sympathy for the that this consistency and predict- cabinet in the first place if all the ministers predicament Nene is trying to negotiate the ability will keep the ratings agencies were on the same page about growing the economy out of. from downgrading SA’s credit rating economy and attracting investment. “Though we are also going to try to pro- again. In the past year Standard & It is unclear what government’s recon- tect the buying power of public servants, we Poor’s downgraded SA’s sovereign sideration of the visa requirements will also have a demand of productivity [from credit rating to just above junk sta- bring, especially since home affairs minister IT IS A CALL FOR them]. I am convinced that whatever it is TAXPAYERS TO PAY tus and Fitch adjusted SA’s outlook Malusi Gigaba has stated that they will not that happens [in wage negotiations] it should to negative. be reviewed. The political reality for Nene is not affect the deficit and what we have Public service sector union march Demanding higher wages But predictable numbers and a transparent budget process may no that this and other significant changes to the regulatory environment could be difficult, GOVERNMENT MORE WHILE allocated,” Nene told journalists in a pre- budget briefing, where he was asked about longer be enough to convince ratings agencies and investors. They considering that Gigaba and other ministers in charge of economic development and IT GOES ABOUT DOING the impact of another public-sector strike if government failed to come up with a satis- Intended to stabilise public finances, the want to know that government has a bigger plan to implement policies that will trade are champions of more interventionist policy and regulation rather than less. MORE OF THE SAME factory offer. Nene’s call for more productivity from a MMUSI MAIMANE improve government efficiency and Also, Nene’s call for the regulatory bur- better-skilled civil service is a call that has budget does not bolster confidence that accountability and, ultimately, contain costs den on business to be eased is contradicted been made since Zuma came to office. A and encourage investment and growth. Nene domestic obstacles to growth will be dealt says there is one. State of the nation debate “We have agreed on a National Develop- with, writes Troye Lund ment Plan (NDP). But there is still hard work ahead of its implementation,” Nene told a F joint sitting of parliament before tabling his inance minister Nhlanhla Nene’s WHAT IT calls for cost cutting but budget. 2015 budget is a pragmatic bid to shore up confidence in govern- MEANS does not draw a line in the sand about bailing out The first obstacle to implementing the NDP is that there is no consensus on it in ment’s ability to manage the eco- nomy responsibly. It’s presented in the FISCAL PACKAGE state-owned enterprises. Nor does Nene’s budget give the ANC alliance. As Nene prepared to deliver his maiden budget speech, Cosatu name of stabilising public finances, repaying NOT the sense that it is a plan members filled the streets outside parlia- debt, cutting government spending and CHANGED FROM driven by Zuma, his cabinet ment protesting against unemployment and building fiscal space. The matter-of-fact MEDIUM TERM and the ANC alliance low wages. The union is opposed to the plan lists the domestic obstacles to growth and blames them for the steady economic EXPENDITURE urgently rallying round to rescue the economy and NDP’s core proposals to grow the economy. Cosatu is demanding that government decline since President Jacob Zuma began FRAMEWORK create jobs. increase spending — rather than cut it, as his first term in 2009, promising “radical economic transformation”. MUCH STILL TO challenges “There are two main the ANC is fac- Nene’s budget does — to help create more jobs and lower poverty and inequality. The ANC is paying the price for this. DO BEFORE ing. It is suffering from an “We are following European and IMF Opposition is increasing, especially at local IMPLEMENTATION instability of ideas. It is also austerity policies, which have only plunged Siyasanga Mbambani/DOC government level. The party is in danger of OF NDP not convinced by the ideas Europe deeper into crisis, where we should losing ground, if not another metropolitan it does have. For example, be following the US stimulus approach, government in the 2016 municipal election. the concept of the develop- which is leading to recovery of their eco- And though Nene’s budget acknowledges mental state is poorly articulated and poorly nomy,” Cosatu said in a statement. the impediments to economic growth, it implemented. This is because Zuma is not a Cosatu leaders say that the brand of fiscal doesn’t acknowledge the political environ- big vision person. This concept was imple- policy government is promoting makes ment in which these have to be resolved. It mented successfully in countries like South workers question why they keep supporting 10 Financial Mail February 26 - March 4, 2015 February 26 - March 4, 2015 Financial Mail 11
Financial Mail Page 12 -25/02/15 11:11:56 PM FM Overview properly functioning education sector is increase investor interest and Russell Roberts critical for improving the country’s skills, employment prospects in which, in turn, are critical to economic these areas. growth and job creation. One of the main themes of “Unemployment remains our single Nene’s budget is stabilising greatest economic and social challenge,” state finances by cost cutting. Nene told parliament before pointing out He announced a plan to that he had continued the trend of allocating reduce the main budget the lion’s share of the budget to education — expenditure ceiling by R25bn R640bn over three years. Though these allo- over the next two years, but cations have expanded access to education did not single out state- dramatically over the past 20 years, govern- owned enterprises for the ment admits that the quality of teaching is a regular bailouts they require, concern. In his budget Nene says the num- as he did in October last year ber of qualified teachers entering the public during his medium-term service will increase from 8 227 in 2012/2013 budget. to 10 200 in 2017/2018. Nene confirmed that Though an additional R3,1bn will be allo- Zwelethu Jolobe Eskom would be getting a cated to support teacher training, Zuma’s R23bn bailout, but assured state of the nation speech and Nene’s budget Zuma is not a investors that further fiscal are silent on measuring performance and big vision person support to state-owned com- linking salaries to performance. There is no panies would be “financed move to demand better-quality teaching or through offsetting asset sales limit the powers of teachers’ unions to dis- promises about creating jobs. SA now has so that there is no net impact on the budget rupt education. the third-highest unemployment rate in deficit”. Though he did not advance that These are concepts that the SA Demo- Africa, but Nene’s budget provides no new thinking, it is a proposal that will meet with cratic Teachers Union, which is the coun- solutions for unemployment, especially opposition from ministers and party leaders try’s largest teachers’ union and a Cosatu youth unemployment. The budget who will see it as privatisation. affiliate, is opposed to. announces that the Jobs Fund will spend Aside from departments having to do Despite treasury’s acknowledgment that R4bn on encouraging new employment and more with less, treasury hopes its recent the education system is not producing the that government’s extended public works review of supply chain management will levels of education and skills that the eco- programmes, which provide relief for the reduce wastage and corruption. From Jan- nomy so desperately needs, and despite his unemployed rather then permanent jobs, uary next year, for example, all schoolbook acknowledgement that unemployment is will be extended by 21%/year. contracts will go through a central contract, the economy’s “biggest challenge”, Nene’s Given SA’s electricity constraints and its and school building plans will be standard- budget steers clear of making sweeping unskilled workforce, Nene says government ised. From April, there will be a centralised will also intensify job- government supplier database with suppli- EXPENDITURE GROWTH creating efforts in sectors that require less energy ers needing to register just once, and all IT contracts will run through the State Infor- Nominal expenditure growth by function and can absorb more mation Technology Agency. unskilled workers. Nene has promised tighter controls on Next three years: Last three years: “Over the next several government spending on goods and services, 2014/15 - 2017/18 2011/12 - 2014/15 years the sectors best as well as hotel accommodation, flights placed to thrive and and meals. He also wants accounting officers create jobs include in government departments to be held liable Debt-service cost tourism, agriculture, for mismanaging public funds. The Public 10.1 agriprocessing, light Finance Management Act already allows for Local economic development manufacturing and ser- accounting officers to be held personally and social infrastructure 8.2 vices like business pro- liable for state funds they manage negli- Post-school education and training 7.1 cess outsourcing,” say gently. But this isn’t enforced because par- supporting budget liament hasn’t held officials in government Health documents. departments and state-owned enterprises to 7.1 These sectors were account as it should, especially if they are Social protection 7.0 highlighted as priority political deployees and senior members of job creation areas in pre- the ruling party. Basic education 6.3 vious budgets, but Nene Though Nene’s budget highlights stronger gave no details of plans oversight by parliament as key to an effi- Economic affairs 6.0 to overcome policy cient state, better planning and implemen- Defence, public uncertainty in these sec- tation, the ANC majority in parliament has order and safety 5.7 tors, such as a cap on been more focused on protecting the presi- General public services land ownership. Nor did dent and other ANC leaders in his cabinet 2.6 he suggest that govern- than monitoring how government is imple- 0 5 10 15 ment was considering menting economic policy and managing SOURCE: NATIONAL TREASURY % growth any labour-market public funds. ■ reforms which would lundt@fm.co.za 12 Financial Mail February 26 - March 4, 2015
Financial Mail Page 13 -25/02/15 10:25:29 PM FM Opinion Blum Khan Continental opportunities Africa’s impressive willingness to adopt new technologies offers exciting prospects for smart product solutions C arefully researched and targeted are working closely with major that unite us and spend less time mobile phone network opera- on that which divides us. The expansion into African markets tors to bring financial services to future lies in finding solutions is a strategic and transactional the market via this channel, which draw on our combined necessity for SA’s long-term which has revolutionised com- learning. munications and service deliv- The challenges of multiple insurers and asset managers as ery across Africa. regulatory environments, differ- the continent’s population, living standards There is a great opportunity ent currencies, distribution through understanding local capacity, skills availability and and demand for financial services continue customer needs and market low financial services penetra- to grow strongly. It makes good business insights to inform how we apply tion have to be tackled. our vast experience, capability Accepting there is no one- sense for SA financial services companies and intellectual property to size-fits-all model is a big step; deliver market-leading products. the next is to analyse individual to maximise opportunities for itants are 19 or younger, in sharp We must increasingly collabo- markets, understand client collaboration, connectedness contrast to the developed world, rate with stakeholders to derive needs and develop appropriate and growth across the length where ageing populations are mutual benefit from business, propositions to meet them. and breadth of the continent. the norm. cultural and personal relation- Significantly, Africa’s willing- Africa provides a natural Financial inclusion policy ini- ships and grow the continent as ness to adopt new technologies market because of its geographi- tiatives are driving some of the a global player. — in some cases quicker than SA cal proximity, but also due to its changes and creating opportu- While Africa offers undoubt- — offers exciting learning exciting economic growth rates nities. In sub-Saharan Africa, for ed growth potential, it also poses opportunities and prospects for and population dynamics. By example, it is estimated that challenges and obstacles to smart product solutions. properly growing their footprint only 24% of adults have a bank overcome. However, whatever markets in product and service offerings account, despite the strong Having operated in the we are interested in require a in various countries, SA com- growth of the banking sector in Southern African Development structured process of research panies can benefit from these recent years. There is no doubt Community for more than a and market segmentation as a growth rates, contribute to Africa presents an opportunity decade, we have an established prelude to any market penetra- Africa’s development and for SA companies to diversify base from which to grow. We tion. improve SA’s balance sheet. earnings and develop growth must now move up another gear The time is ripe for SA to At the end of 2014 there markets for the future. and embrace the diversity the become much more connected were 1,1bn people living in 54 MMI’s measured approach to continent offers. This includes with the rest of Africa and to sovereign states, nine territories expansion in Africa is about cultural nuances, language and build on the common threads, and two de facto independent growth, diversification of rev- in-country realities. hopes and ambitions that bind states in Africa. That number is enue and taking our intellectual We must appreciate that we us together. ■ expected to double before 2050. property and capabilities into have a common objective to Khan is CEO of MMI’s International What’s more, 50% of the inhab- these exciting new markets. We uplift Africa, to find the areas Division February 26 - March 4, 2015 Financial Mail 13
Financial Mail Page 14-15 -25/02/15 11:59:05 PM FM Overview QUESTIONS & ANSWERS TAX COMPLIANCE global, thanks to a rapid move towards Sars to carry the exchange of infor- Tax shortfall to be expected mation between national tax authori- out major ties. “Cross border avoidance of tax is Sars’ biggest focus crackdowns area,” says Dan Foster, tax director at Webber SA Revenue Service commissioner Tom Moyane talks to Wentzel. It is an area in which SA already Stephen Cranston about meeting targets in tough times ranks among the top Finance minister Nhlanhla Nene’s budget 50 countries in terms speech — brief and to the point — fills a of mutual assistance Trevor Samson There was a shortfall in revenue last year. of shopping malls to attract some of the mere 22 pages. But the budget he delivered on tax issues, he says. Are you disappointed by this? 22m taxpayers who do not have a com- has far broader ramifications — not least of The noose is getting Yes, tax revenue of R979bn was R14,7bn puter. We need to be accessible to these is the mounting pressure faced by the tighter. Foster foresees less than the budget estimate. But as the everyone. SA Revenue Service (Sars) to rake in every automatic exchange of minister [Nhlanhla Nene] said, it was cent of revenue it can to bridge govern- information globally against the backdrop of difficult eco- You have started your time as ment’s revenue gap. becoming a reality as nomic conditions. commissioner during a period when there In a flagging economy Sars faces a daunt- soon as 2017. “There What were we capable of collecting has been negative publicity about a ing task. Preliminary figures for fiscal will be no more secret in those circumstances? Personal number of senior Sars officials. Does this 2014/2015 reflect this clearly with, unchar- bank accounts,” he income tax was robust but just think trouble you? acteristically, Sars’ tax collections falling says. about the effect of electricity load-shed- I would be the wrong kind of leader if I R14,7bn below the original budget estimate. The pace at which ding alone on corporate tax. If a mine dismissed the allegations. It would not Even the reduced target set out in the Octo- the international was well managed, it would have diesel augur well if I put my head in the sand. ber medium-term budget review proved too clampdown on HNW generators as a back-up against load- I need to be firm but fair. It is impor- high. The revised tax collection figure is tax evaders is pro- shedding, but that would increase its tant to know that the minister of predicted to be R4,6bn short. ceeding, Foster says, is costs. Others might have lost whole finance and I speak with one voice in More than ever, the pressure is on vividly illustrated by shifts’ production. this matter. extracting tax from the small base of indi- the storm of contro- As Sars, at the end of the value chain, I am very pleased that the minister vidual taxpayers. Their contribution to the versy UK bank HSBC there is little we can do if production has set up an advisory committee fiscus is budgeted to increase from 33,8% of Dan Foster has found itself in. and profit have been hit. We aren’t in the under retired judge Frank Kroon to total revenue in 2014/2015 to 36,4% in the Clampdown on high-net worth At the centre of the good old days when the world economy guide the long-term strategy at Sars. upcoming fiscal year. tax evaders is on the cards storm is a disclosure was strong and commodities were It aims to ensure that decisions It is little surprise that Sars is turning up that HSBC’s Swiss pri- booming. But with GDP being revised about our operations, personnel, budget the heat on errant taxpayers. “Sars is tight- vate bank aided hun- up, we will have a better chance of and technology support our long-term ening up a lot on collections, and penalties dreds of clients in meeting our targets. plans. The committee will review the are high,” says Mike Dingley, national head Sars does not even have to go through a evading tax authorities in their home coun- events that have been reported by the of tax at Mazars. “In some respects you lengthy court process. All that is required, tries. Will you be tougher on collections? media in recent months and will advise could say its approach is almost Draconian.” says Dingley, is for a senior Sars official to The revelation came thanks to a list of Of course we won’t tolerate people who us on the best way to prevent this kind Backing Sars in its bid to extract the last declare that a sum is owed and a magistrate names extracted from secret files released can pay tax but refuse to do so. They will ticularly pleased that the proportion of tax- of thing occurring again. drop of tax is the Tax Administration Act. “It will rubber stamp a court order. Collection by the International Consortium of Inves- feel the full might of Sars falling on them. payers submitting returns on time increased is a strong piece of legislation,” says Dingley. of the debt is as simple as an instruction to tigative Journalists in February. “There are a We are finding that we receive fewer sub- from 91,5% to 94,5%. Are you comfortable with your mandate at “It is so strong it is almost frightening.” the taxpayer’s bank. few South African names on the list,” says missions from previous years: 1,02m in the Sars? Even a minnow taxpayer assessed as But for Sars the really sought-after prize Foster. last tax year, which was 34% less than in The minister talked about potential cutbacks in We have a very simple objective: the effi- owing Sars a small amount is in the firing in its crackdown on tax evaders are the big Cross-border tax avoidance is far from a 2013 as the number of late submitters con- the public service. Will Sars be cutting back? cient and effective collection of revenue. We line. “If you do not ask for a suspension of fish: high-net worth (HNW) individuals. “A pursuit confined to HNW individuals. Multi- tinues to fall. This is an encouraging indi- We do not have a programme of shedding also provide protection against the illegal payment, Sars will slap you with a court large number of HNW individuals are national companies also play the avoidance cator that the administrative penalties jobs but we are going through a transfor- import and export of goods, facilitate trade order in 10 days,” he says. underdeclaring their income and their use game through profit shifting to the most imposed for outstanding returns have mation programme to review our operating and advise the minister of finance on all of trusts as a means to evade tax,” notes Sars beneficial tax jurisdictions, with the resul- improved compliance levels. Defaulting tax- model and see how we can be as modern in revenue matters. We are also governed by in its three-year strategy review. tant loss of tax income (base erosion) by payers paid us R436m in penalties last year. other parts of our IT and operations as we are with e-filing. the values in the constitution which govern public administration, such as the need to MAJOR INCENTIVE PROGRAMMES “Sars has established a dedicated unit focused on HNW individuals,” says Eugene countries where they earn the profit. Hogan Lovells head of tax Ernie Lai King Do you believe Sars is a service-orientated I also want Sars employees to feel maintain a high standard of professional Three fiscal years to March 2018 du Plessis, head of tax at Grant Thornton tells the Financial Mail that anti-avoidance organisation? empowered: they must be treated with ethics, be impartial, and offer a fair service Johannesburg. measures to counter base erosion and profit Department Rm I think the huge success of e-filing counts in respect and then they will treat the public without bias. Weapons at Sars’ disposal include audit- shifting by multinationals is the new battle our favour. An amazing 99,91% of returns with respect. We are also expected to foster trans- Science & technology 21 400 ing tax returns and lifestyle risk profiling of ground for corporate tax. were submitted electronically and 94,98% of I would like to see a one-stop approach: a parency by providing the public with timely, Trade & industry 17 200 individuals. Adding to its armoury is another As a G20 member state, SA has been at returns were assessed in three seconds taxpayer who runs a small business should accessible and accurate information. And in Agriculture, forestry & fishing 7 210 new special unit focused exclusively on pro- the forefront of co-operation on combating while 98% of refunds were paid within 72 be able to deal with his Vat issues at the all our interactions we must recognise the Small business development 2 915 visional tax submissions,” says Du Plessis. base erosion & profit shifting (BEPS) since hours. same place as personal tax, but often the rights of taxpayers, traders and Sars employ- “Sars has raked in billions of rand more the formation in July 2013 of the BEPS Tourism 557 Tax refunds of R15,2bn were paid to 2,1m two places are 5 km-10 km apart. ees to just administrative action and access through this initiative.” action plan under the auspices of the Organ- SOURCE: NATIONAL TREASURY taxpayers in the 2014 tax year. I am par- I would also like to make much more use to information. ■ Sars’ reach is also becoming increasingly isation for Economic Co-operation & Devel- 14 Financial Mail February 26 - March 4, 2015 February 26 - March 4, 2015 Financial Mail 15
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