BANANA Close-up - Counter-season avocado in 2013: slightly smaller potential on a vigorous market! - europa.eu
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210 April 2013 - No. English edition Close-up BANANA http://passionfruit.cirad.fr Counter-season avocado in 2013: slightly smaller potential on a vigorous market! Citrus and exotics: monthly reviews
'All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others' wrote George Orwell. This is something that everyone can check in their lives, whether in the old European democracies or elsewhere. Tax inequality is a common feature. The thousand and one ways of 'optimising' fiscal expenditure forms a body of expertise with shop fronts. Transnational companies have made it one of their basic principles for decades, making the profits appear where the taxes are lowest. This is not necessarily fair play for everyone—both countries and people— involved in a production chain, but it is legal. It is healthy accounts management in a way but it does not go well with healthy social management. But it is the model and there would seem to be little—including the current systemic crises—that could call it into question. And then there is inequality in the face of regulations. France has just given us another example of this. Bursting with good intentions, it wants to apply an ecotax on heavy goods haulage. Various lobbies—including the dairy sector—hit the roof and some regions are exonerated. Hauliers in Brittany are spared. But their colleagues in Normandy cough up. The river Couesnon, the frontier between Brittany and Normandy, marks the limit. Apart from anything else, this is going to revive an- cestral enmities between the two regions. It can be seen that in questions of equality before the law, the authorities have preferred once again to go for Orwell's Animal Farm than apply Article 1 of the French Constitution: '…the equality of all citizens before the law…'. Denis Loeillet Publisher C ontents Direct from the markets Cirad TA B-26/PS4 p. 2 MARCH 2013 34398 Montpellier cedex 5, France Tel: 33 (0) 4 67 61 71 41 Fax: 33 (0) 4 67 61 59 28 • Banana: The United States market opens to Philippine bananas — India, the leading Email: odm@cirad.fr country for Musaceae — Jump in the volumes of bananas sold in the EU in February http://passionfruit.cirad.fr 2013 — French banana consumption continues to decrease. Publishing Director • Avocado: Strong ambitions for avocado exports in the Dominican Republic — Hubert de Bon Enough for a monstrous quantity of guacamole! Editors-in-chief Denis Loeillet and Eric Imbert • Exotics (pineapple, mango): Development of Cape Verde fruit production. Editor • Citrus (orange, easy peelers and grapefruit): Record sanction for Brazilian juice Catherine Sanchez industry giants — Dark prospects for medium and long-term citrus production in Computer graphics Florida and possibly Brazil — Two new easy peeler varieties coming soon from UC Martine Duportal Riverside — Florida grapefruit: less and less — Southern Africa: moving towards Iconography another record year for citrus exports! Régis Domergue • Roots and tubers and other exotics Website Unité multimédia (Cirad) • Sea freight and sector news: L’évaluation de la durabilité by Franck-Dominique Advertising Manager Vivien, Jacques Lepart and Pascal Marty. Eric Imbert E. Imbert, D. Loeillet, C. Dawson, P. Gerbaud, T. Paqui, R. Bright Subscriptions odm@cirad.fr Translator Simon Barnard The latest on... Printed by Impact Imprimerie p. 15 • Counter-season avocado in 2013: n°483 ZAC des Vautes 34980 Saint Gély du Fesc, France slightly smaller potential on a vigorous market! Eric Imbert Separate French and English editions ISSN French: 1256-544X / English: 1256-5458 Close-up by Denis Loeillet : BANANA © Cirad p. 29 • The European banana market: a trompe-l’oeil effect Subscription rate • European banana consumption: EU down and USA up! EUR 220 / 11 issues per year • The banana market in France: very disappointing sales This document was produced by the Markets News Service of the PERSYST department at CIRAD, for • The banana market in Spain: the Canary Islands increase their market share the exclusive use of subscribers. The data pre- sented are from reliable sources, but CIRAD may • The banana market in the United States: we are the champions not be held responsible for any error or omission. Under no circumstances may the published prices • The banana market in Russia: permanent restructuring be considered to be transaction prices. Their aim is to shed light on the medium and long-term market • The banana market in Asia: a market dominated by the Philippines trends and evolutions. This publication is protected by copyright, and all rights of reproduction and • World statistic panorama distribution are prohibited. • Pests and diseases • Quality defects • The genetic diversity of banana Cover photograph: Denis Loeillet No. 210 April 2013 1
Direct from the markets Banana March 2013 In spite of an overall increase in the India, the leading country Banana - India supply of bananas, most markets be- for Musaceae. The Indian har- Production by region came better balanced in March. How- vest is reported to have exceeded ever, the seasonal increase in volumes the symbolic figure of 30 million from several sources that had started in tonnes in 2012-13 for the first February continued. Supply from the time. India is the leading world French West Indies continued to in- producer of banana and plantain crease very moderately but at levels that ahead of China, the Philippines Others were 15% higher than the average. and Uganda (between 9 and 10 21% Tam il Nadu Shipments from Africa continued to rise million tonnes). The main produc- 26% to high levels with quantities from Cam- tion states are in the south (8 mil- eroon still stable and higher than the lion tonnes in Tamil Nadu) and Karnataka average and the start of the seasonal west of the country (slightly more 9% i nc re ase in s hi p me nts fro m Cô t e than 4 million tonnes in the states Maharashtra d'Ivoire. Furthermore, the shortfall in Andhra 17% of Gujarat and Maharashtra). Pradesh dollar bananas continued to decrease. Practically all the fruits are sold Shipments from Costa Rica were similar 11% Gujarat locally. Exports have totalled some to last year's, the deficit in produce from 16% 45 000 t to 60 000 t in recent Ecuador was smaller and Colombian years, with shipments going shipments increased distinctly. Demand mainly to the markets in the Mid- was slow at the beginning of the month but after the end of the school holidays dle East. Source: APEDA in most countries it began to liven up in Source: Apeda mid-March, especially because spring has been late (cold weather and no or © Clio Delanoue little competition from the season's The United States fruits) and promotion operations were market opens to Philippine run. As a result, several markets re- bananas. At the end of March, gained their balance. Likewise, sales to USDA authorised the entry of Eastern European countries were bus- ier. The fall in green prices seen in bananas from the Philippines to France and Italy at the beginning of the USA, on condition that a March was thus halted and prices re- drastic sanitary protocol is re- mained stable until the end of the spected. The fruits must be month, but slightly lower than the aver- grown with a system approach age. Prices in Germany remained at the that limits the presence of fruit same level throughout the month after flies and must be inspected by the renegotiation of contracts for March- the Philippine officialdom. Each April. Finally, the Spanish market kept a batch must also be accompa- certain balance as arrivals of Canary nied by a phytosanitary certifi- Island bananas were stable and slightly cate that guarantees traceabil- short. The collapse of the Russian mar- ity and the absence of quaran- ket continued with prices at record lows tine diseases. The Philippines for the season after massive shipments export some 2 million tonnes of since the beginning of the year. bananas each year, mainly to Asia (Japan, South Korea and NORTHERN EUROPE — IMPORT PRICE China) and the Middle East. March Comparison Source: Reefer Trends 2013 previous average for euro/box month last 2 years 14.80 0% - 6% Allem agne Germany - Prix - Green (2nd vert price /3rdetbrands) (2e 3e EUROPE — RETAIL PRICE 14.8 March 2013 Comparison 14.5 14.8 Country February average for last type euro/kg E 2013 3 years U euros/colis R France normal 1.61 0% + 3% euro/box O special offer 1.46 + 8% + 10% P Germany normal 1.37 + 2% + 4% E discount 1.24 + 2% + 8% UK (£/kg) packed 1.19 - 1% - 3% J F M A M J J A S O N D loose 0.78 0% - 7% Spain plátano 1.84 - 2% + 3% 2013 2012 2011 banano 1.33 + 3% - 3% 2 April 2013 No. 210
Direct from the markets Banana Etats-Unis - Prix USA - Green vert price (spot) (spot) Jump in the volumes of Banana - France U bananas sold in the EU in N 17.9 17.6 Net supply in February I 16.8 February 2013. Supply to the Euro- 49 T pean market increased again in Feb- 43 41 44 45 40 41 41 USD/colis E ruary. After strong growth in January USD/box 36 D (+ 4 %), this favourable trend was confirmed in February with consump- 000 tonnes S tion up by 3% to 435 000 t. This time, T A imports drove the trend with an in- T crease in arrivals of ACP and dollar E J F M A M J J A S O N D produce. Shipments from Africa con- S tinue to increase in February but at a 2013 2012 2011 reasonable rate: 5% against the previ- 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 ous 22%. The other ACPs gained USA — IMPORT PRICE 10% in comparison with February Comparison 2012. The increase was smaller from Sources: customs, CIRAD March 2013 dollar suppliers at about 3%. Commu- previous average for nity production confirmed the de- USD/box month last 2 years crease that started in November French banana consumption 16.00 0% - 15% 2012. On an individual basis, Panama continues to decrease. The Janu- performed best with 17 000 t, a figure ary improvement did not last long. not attained since June 2010. Costa Sales decreased substantially in Feb- Russie -Russia - Green Prix vert price CIF St Petersburg Rica confirmed its good January per- ruary at 13% less than in 2012. On a formance. Shipments increased from month on month basis, the shortage 14.8 Cameroon, Surinam and Brazil in was greatest in bananas from African 15.3 comparison with last year. Côte ACP sources—both Côte d’Ivoire and R 13.3 d’Ivoire took breathing space after a Cameroon. Exports from French terri- USD/box U very positive January. Exports from USD/colis tory remained substantial. In spite of S the Dominican Republic stabilised the increase in French production, S after a catastrophic start to the year. the decrease in the supply of im- I A Ecuadorian shipments remained ported bananas weighed on the smaller than those of 2012. However, trend. The 36 000 tonnes sold in Feb- the worst performance was that of ruary marked an almost historical low J F M A M J J A S O N D Colombia which, with the exception of point. It is reminded that the average 2013 2012 2011 November, has seen exports de- for February since 2005 is 42 000 crease since July 2012. tonnes. RUSSIA — IMPORT PRICE Source: CIRAD Source: CIRAD March Comparison Banana - January to February 2013 (provisional) 2013 previous average for Difference month last 2 years tonnes 2011 2012 2013 USD/box 2013/2012 EU-27 — Total supply 824 579 852 807 881 493 + 3% 13.30 - 11% - 28% Total import, of which 737 901 751 376 785 523 + 5% MFN 594 624 606 844 630 050 + 4% ACP Africa 80 483 77 387 87 983 + 14% Spain - Platano Espagne green - Prix vert price* platano* ACP others 62 794 67 145 67 490 + 1% Total EU, of which 86 678 101 431 95 970 - 5% Martinique 16 542 25 891 22 910 - 12% C 16.2 Guadeloupe 6 576 9 537 9 873 + 4% A 15.0 Canaries 60 053 62 496 60 849 - 3% N 14.0 EU sources: CIRAD, EUROSTAT (excl. EU domestic production) euro/colis euro/box A R I E EUROPE — IMPORTED VOLUMES — MARCH 2013 S Comparison J F M A M J J A S O N D Origin February March cumulated total 2013 2013 2012 compared to 2012 2013 2012 2011 French West Indies + 15% 0% Cameroon/Ghana/Côte d’Ivoire + 13% + 18% CANARIES — IMPORT PRICE* Surinam 0% + 3% Comparison Canaries - 10% - 5% March 2013 previous average for Dollar: euro/box month last 2 years Ecuador - 22% - 22% Colombia* + 18% + 10% 14.00 - 7% - 28% Costa Rica = - 7% - 2% * 18.5 kg box equivalent Estimated thanks to professional sources / * total all destinations 4 April 2013 No. 210
Direct from the markets Avocado March 2013 The performance of the 'Hass market' Strong ambitions for Avocado - Dom inican Republic was excellent once again with prices avocado exports in the Exports and volumes sold increasing simultane- Dominican Republic. The FEDA ously for the third month running. Sup- (Fondo Especial para el Desarrollo 0.4 ply of the European market was fairly Agropecuario — the Dominican 0.5 substantial in spite of limited arrivals of government's 'Special Fund for Ag- 0.2 0.4 0.4 green varieties. Arrivals of 'Hass' were ricultural Development') has de- 4.6 2.3 large. The Israeli and Spanish seasons cided to allocate some USD750 000 2.6 were still at their peak and exports held 2.8 3.7 for the strengthening of the avocado 000 tonnes at higher than average levels. Chile export sector. This funding is des- remained strongly present in the EU in tined for producers in the Cambita 0.1 spite of an increase in the United region and will be used for the reha- 0.5 States, and complementary Mexican bilitation of orchards and the devel- supply was still substantial. However, opment of international sales, espe- the market remained very tense and cially to the United States. The FAO 16.0 16.9 15.4 17.3 even under-supplied at the end of the reports that the Dominican Republic 14.6 month, proof of strongly growing sales is the second largest avocado pro- 11.5 on some markets. Prices firmed, with ducing country after Mexico, with an the monthly average reaching levels annual harvest of around 300 000 t. previously unseen for 'Hass' in March. Its position on the international mar- ket is more modest as West Indian type cultivars like 'Semil 34' form an 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Avocado - France- -Prix Avocat - France Import price im port essential part of the orchards. Ex- ports, with more than 80% shipped USA EU Others 2.8 to the United States, have oscillated 2.4 between 18 000 and 22 000 t in Source: national customs 2.0 recent years. euro/kg 1.6 1.2 Sources: El Caribe, El nuevo diario 0.8 Enough for a monstrous 0.4 0.0 quantity of guacamole! O N D J F M A M J J A S Some 900 to 1 000 containers of avocados per week, that is 12/13 11/12 10/11 to say about 18 000 t, are shipped from Mexico to the United States during the three Average Comparison weeks running up to the Su- P price in R Varieties France with the last per Bowl. When the further 2 years volumes from other sources I euro/box C Green 7.00-7.50 + 28% are added to this, the 55 000 t E imported to the USA during Hass 9.50-10.00 + 17% this period is the equivalent of a quarter of the volumes en- V Comparison tering the EU in the year from O September 2011 to August Varieties previous average for L 2012! month last 2 years U M Green - 5% Sources: InfoHass.com, HAB E = S Hass + 53% © Régis Domergue Comparison Cumulated total / Source previous average for Observations cumulated month last 2 years average for last 2 years V Late end of the 'Hass' season. Volumes large during the first half of the O Chile + 293% + 39% month and still significant in the second. L U Arrivals of 'Hass' peaked at a significantly higher level than average, M Israel = + 43% especially during the first fortnight. Decline of the season for green varieties - 2% E but volumes larger than average. S Supply still average in the EU in contrast with the practically total absence of Mexico = + 3 400% + 132% produce in the two preceding seasons. The 'Hass' season continued strongly with quantities slightly larger than Spain = + 10% + 12% average. Green avocado season reaching the end with limited volumes. No. 210 April 2013 5
Direct from the markets Orange March 2013 Confirmation of the improvement seen Record sanction for Brazilian in February. Demand held at a fairly juice industry giants. Total fines good level for the season thanks to cold of USD 227 million for Sucocitrico weather favouring the purchase of cit- Cutrale, Louis Dreyfuss Commodi- rus fruits, the small supply of competing ties, Citrovita and Fisher. The court in fruits (apples and spring fruits) and Mataõ found that the companies in- improved quality of the supply of or- fringed labour laws for more than anges with 'Navelate' from Spain. The 10 years by setting up cooperatives price of the latter variety was therefore whose sole function was the harvest- increased, returning to an average level ing of fruits. The four companies con- even though fairly large volumes were cerned are to appeal. available for sale this season. The prices of 'Salustiana' from Spain also Source: FoodNews increased with the season for this vari- ety finishing at the end of the month. Dark prospects for medium The volumes of produce from other and long-term citrus production sources remained very modest in West- in Florida and possibly Brazil. mortality on a moderate scale ern Europe, with the exception of The situation is still precarious for the (99 million boxes in 2022-23) or a 'Maltese' from Tunisia that continued to Florida citrus sector according to the strong one (82 million boxes in 2022- complete supply on the French market. conclusion of FDOC's biennial fore- 23) and if the rate of replanting were cast. The decrease in world demand to remain small. The picture is no for orange juice and the poor sanitary better in Brazil. The 2012 slump is state of orchards, mainly because of reported to have led a large number Orange France --Import Orange - France Prix imprice port the impact of greening, continue to of small growers to abandon citrus. 0.9 have a very negative effect on the Eduardo Teofilo of the specialised 0.8 sector. The most probable trend, with consultants GCONCI estimates that 0.7 the maintaining of replanting rates between 80 000 and 100 000 hec- 0.6 (small) and mortality rates (small), is tares of orange groves were grubbed euro/kg 0.5 a decrease in production of about up. If the figure is confirmed, it would 0.4 14% by 2022-23 (down to 120 million 0.3 represent about 15% of the groves in 0.2 field boxes from 139 million this sea- the Sao Paulo region. 0.1 son). The decrease would be much 0.0 more marked with an increase in Source: FoodNews O N D J F M A M J J A S 12/13 11/12 10/11 Orange - Florida - Evolution of production trends Replanting rate = 50% of losses Average Comparison 180 monthly with average 163 147 P Type for last 2 160 R price 140 134 141 139 million field boxes euro/box 15 kg years I 120 C Dessert oranges 10.50 + 4% E 100 Juice 80 oranges 8.85 + 2% 60 Light losses (4%per year) 40 Average losses (6%per year) Comparison V 20 Strong losses (8%per year) O Type previous average for 0 L month last 2 years 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 20/21 22/23 U Dessert M oranges + 21% Source: FDOC E S Juice = + 25% oranges Comparison Cumulated Varieties total / by previous average for Observations cumulated V source month last 2 years average for O last 2 years L U Navelate Volumes peaking at higher than the average, especially during the second from Spain + 24% + 21% M half of the month. E Salustiana Season prolonged. Supply held at a practically steady level, higher than S from Spain = + 25% average, for the whole of the month. + 5% Maltese Volumes smaller than the average. Season ending and uneven quality of from Tunisia = - 20% - 10% certain brands in the second half of the month. 6 April 2013 No. 210
Direct from the markets Grapefruit March 2013 Spring does not mean improvement on Two new easy Easy peelers — New varieties the grapefruit market. Arrivals of fruits peeler varieties 'Encore LS' 'Nova Sin' from Florida held at slightly above aver- coming soon from UC Harvest period Feb.-April Dec.-Feb. age volumes while demand did not Riverside. 'Encore LS' Diameter 67 mm 65 mm increase, especially because of the and 'Nova Sin' will be Brix* 15.5° 14.5° disappointing peel quality of some launched by the Univer- Acidity* 1.10% 1.07% batches. Prices decreased slightly and sity of California in July. Maximum number of seeds 2.6 0.9 remained close to cost price. The situa- The fruits of both varieties Yield 45-55 t/ha 45 t/ha tion was no better for Mediterranean contain fewer than three * totally ripe / Source: University of Riverside grapefruit. In spite of the early ending of seeds under conditions of strong Turkish and Israeli seasons, supply 15 million field boxes in 2022-23 if cross-pollination. They are resis- present trends remain unchanged: was above average while demand re- tant to Alternaria and yields can mained slow. Prices did not follow the tree mortality low at around 4% and reach 45 tonnes per hectare. They low replanting rate representing half seasonal upward movement and re- were bred by the irradiation of ex- mained low. Supply was completed by the mortality rate. The decrease isting cultivars ('Encore' and 'Nova', represents a little more than 10% of a few batches from Cyprus and Cor- better known in Spain as sica. present production (17 million 'Clemenvilla'), like four other varie- boxes this season). The Florida ties: 'Tango' in 2006, 'Daisy LS' in harvest has shrunk by nearly 2009, 'Fairchild LS' in 2010 and 10 million boxes in the last five 'Kinnow LS' in 2012. The hybrid years, that is to say a decrease of breeding programme at the same more than 35%. university made it possible to launch three triploid easy peelers in Source: FDOC Pom elo - -France Grapefruit France -- Prix im price Import port 2002 ('Shasta Gold®', 'Yosemite 1.2 Gold®' and 'Tahoe Gold®') and two 1.1 diploids ('Gold Nugget' in 1999 and 1.0 'USDA 88-2' in 2010). euro/kg 0.9 Sources: Riverside, agraria.pe 0.8 0.7 Florida grapefruit: less and 0.6 less. According to the FDOC, the 0.5 Florida harvest should total some O N D J F M A M J J A S © Régis Domergue 12/13 11/12 10/11 Grapefruit - Florida - Evolution of production trends Replanting rate = 50% of losses Average Comparison monthly 25 with average 22 P Type price for last 2 20 20 R 20 19 million field boxes euro/box years I 17 kg box eq. 17 C Tropical 17.20 - 2% 15 E Mediterranean 10.50-11.00 - 12% 10 Light losses (4%per year) Average losses (6%per year) 5 Comparison Strong losses (8%per year) V O Type previous average for 0 L month last 2 years 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 20/21 22/23 U M Tropical Source: FDOC = + 8% E S Mediterranean + 10% Comparison Cumulated total / Source previous average for Observations cumulated V month last 2 years average for O last 2 years L Florida Total exports smaller than normal but the flow remained higher than the EU = + 8% - 4% U average. M Israel + 21% Seasonal peak in supply at higher than the average. Mainly large fruits. + 8% E S Early end to the season and exports smaller than average, especially to the Turkey = - 27% - 13% EU. Spain = - 35% Early end of the season. Steady, limited volumes throughout the month. - 10% 8 April 2013 No. 210
Direct from the markets Easy peelers March 2013 The market remained satisfactory over- Southern Africa: moving © Régis Domergue all. Demand slowed distinctly as every towards another record year year at this time. But it matched the for citrus exports! This is what increasing volumes of top of the range can be understood from the cumu- fruits. Sales of 'Nadorcott' from Spain lated export forecasts for South and 'Or' from Israel were fairly brisk in Africa, Zimbabwe, Mozambique spite of high prices. The market was and Swaziland released by the merely adequate for 'Nadorcott' from Citrus Growers’ Association. Vol- Morocco as the quality of some brands umes should exceeded 100 million was uneven. The price range was boxes for the second time, in spite broad according to brand and fruit sizes of the floods that hit certain north- from this source. Sales of 'Ortanique' ern provinces at the beginning of from Spain remained slow. the year and hail in the Nelspruit region and the Western Cape. After a dip in 2012, positive production alternation should allow grapefruit exports to return to slightly above the average of about 15 million boxes seen in the past. All the other varietal groups display record export potential, with a slight in- crease in comparison with 2012 but 8 to 13% above the four-year aver- regards oranges, the increase in age. The increase in areas under 'Navel' exports should rise to 8% Petits Easyagrum es- France peelers - France - Prix im - Import port price easy peelers should lead to exports above the average and 'Valencia' increasing to some 13% above the about 13%. Fruit size should also 2.7 2.4 average, with the rise being greater be greater (especially for grape- 2.1 for late varieties than early ones. fruit, 'Navel' orange and lemon in 1.8 The scale of the rise in the figures the Eastern Cape) and the crop will euro/kg 1.5 for lemons should be similar but, be markedly early. 1.2 unlike easy peelers, will concern 0.9 Source: CGA 0.6 early fruits more than late ones. As 0.3 0.0 S O N D J F M A Citrus — South Africa — Exports 12/13 11/12 10/11 Comparison million boxes Estimate 2013/ 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (15 kg) 2013 2013/ average Average Comparison 2012 4 years P monthly with average R Type price for last 2 Valencia 43.2 38.5 46.7 44.2 47.2 47.7 +1% +8% I euro/kg years C Navel 21.5 19.4 22.9 21.2 24.6 24.9 +1% +13% E Hybrids 1.09 + 15% Grapefruit 12.8 14.2 12.5 15.9 13.0 15.0 +15% +7% Lemon 9.6 8.7 9.7 10.8 10.5 11.1 +6% +13% V Comparison Easy peelers 7.3 6.8 7.5 6.9 7.6 8.2 +7% +13% O L Type previous average for Total 94.5 87.6 99.3 99.0 103.0 106.8 +4% +10% U month last 2 years M Source: CGA E Hybrids - 15% S Comparison Cumulated Varieties total / by previous average for Observations cumulated source month last 2 years average for V last 2 years O Ortanique L from Spain = - 24% Arrivals distinctly smaller than average. - 4% U M Nadorcott Arrivals distinctly larger than in previous years, especially during the first half from Spain = + 83% + 80% E of the month. New groves yielding increasing volumes. S Nadorcott from Morocco - 35% Early end of the season in the EU. Last arrivals in mid-month. + 15% Or from Israel = + 43% Arrivals remained markedly larger than average. + 38% No. 210 April 2013 9
Direct from the markets Pineapple Mango March 2013 March 2013 At the beginning of the month operators The European supply of mango was market and the French market in par- received confirmation that supply of strongly dominated by Peru in March. ticular were already saturated and were 'Sweet' would be much smaller than However, deliveries decreased in the soon clogged by very ripe produce re- planned for Easter. The first fortnight of second half of the month and were par- quiring rapid sale at low prices. Price the month therefore featured a firming tially compensated by an increase in ranges broadened with the upper limit of prices because of the decrease in arrivals from Brazil. The arrival of regu- rarely exceeding EUR 4.00 per kg for supply from Latin America. However, lar quantities while demand increased fruits with good keeping potential and the price rise was short-lived. Cold and in the run-up to Easter helped to main- good colour. Riper produce changed bad weather affected demand and it tain firm prices for Peruvian fruits, with hands at around EUR 3.00 per kg and was difficult to shift the small quantities an increase for the holiday. Meanwhile, sometimes less. Finally, the release on released on the market. Operators had shipments from Brazil were stepped up the market in the second half of the trouble selling the few batches that they in the second part of the month. They month of sea mangoes of air quality held, except for promotion operations. consisted mainly of 'Tommy Atkins', also aggravated sales difficulties, with The market situation became more with most sales being the markets in Peruvian produce competing with Peru- tense at the end of the month as supply Northern Europe at a stable average vian produce (EUR 2.50 per kg). The was small (ships delayed) and price of EUR 5.50 per box. A few West African season started in this there was no particular enthusiasm batches of 'Palmer' and 'Keitt' com- difficult context with the first small for this fruit, even though Easter was plet ed Braz ilian supply and sold quantities of 'Amélie' and 'Valencia' approaching. at around the same price as 'Tommy from Mali, broadening the range of va- Atkins'. rieties available. Sales of 'Smooth Cayenne' remained fluid with a good price level throughout The air market was strongly disturbed the month. The fruits received were throughout the month. Attracted by the MANGO — ARRIVALS (estimates) well coloured, kept well and had no high prices seen at the end of Febru- Tonnes trouble in occupying their niche market. ary, Peruvian exporters increased their Weeks shipments and soon saturated the mar- 2013 10 11 12 13 E Air supply was fairly small throughout ket. The substantial increase in arrivals U the month and so sales were fluid for coincided with the winter half-term holi- By air R fruits from all sources. The momentary day period when demand for air pro- O Peru 130 150 130 30 P increase in arrivals from Cameroon at duce decreases. In addition, logistic E the beginning of the second half of the problems resulting from strikes at the By sea month did not cause a real increase in airline Iberia resulted in the accumula- Brazil 880 970 1 430 1 320 overall supply. Small supply thus gave tion of goods at departure airports and stable prices in spite of a few quality Peru 2 840 3 250 2 730 2 510 many late deliveries. The European problems here and there. Fairly small volumes of 'Sugarloaf' from Benin sold MANGO — IMPORT PRICE ON THE FRENCH MARKET — Euro at EUR 1.95 to 2.05 per kg throughout the month. Average Average Weeks 2013 10 11 12 13 March March 2013 2012 Sales of 'Victoria' were fluid and prices high since market supply was small By air (kg) overall. Although not dynamic, demand was sufficient for sales at fairly high Peru Kent 3.50-4.50 3.50-4.20 3.00-3.80 3.00-3.80 3.25-4.10 4.30-4.90 prices. Mali Amélie - - 3.20 3.20-3.50 3.20-3.35 3.00-3.35 Mali Valencia - - 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.65-3.95 By sea (box) Peru Kent 4.00-5.50 5.00-6.00 5.00-6.00 6.00-6.50 5.00-6.00 4.25-5.10 PINEAPPLE — IMPORT PRICE PINEAPPLE — IMPORT PRICE IN FRANCE — MAIN ORIGINS Weeks 2013 10 11 12 13 Weeks By air (euro/kg) Min Max Benin 1.80-1.95 1.80-1.95 1.80-1.90 1.90-1.95 E 10 to 13 Smooth Cayenne U Cameroon 1.70-1.95 1.70-1.95 1.70-1.90 1.70-1.95 R By air (euro/kg) Ghana 1.80-1.95 1.80-2.00 1.80-2.00 1.80-1.95 O Victoria Réunion 3.50-3.80 3.50-3.80 3.50-3.80 3.30-3.60 P Smooth Cayenne 1.70 2.00 Mauritius 3.00-3.30 3.00-3.40 3.00-3.40 3.00-3.40 E Victoria 3.00 3.80 By sea (euro/box) By sea (euro/box) Sweet Côte d’Ivoire 7.00-9.00 7.00-8.50 8.00-8.50 8.00-8.50 Cameroon 7.50-9.00 7.50-9.00 7.50-9.00 8.00-9.00 Sweet 7.00 9.00 Ghana 7.50-9.00 7.50-9.00 7.50-9.00 8.00-9.00 Costa Rica 7.50-9.00 7.50-8.50 7.50-8.50 8.00-9.00 10 April 2013 No. 210
Direct from the markets Roots & tubers First quarter of 2013 It only started sending larger quantities of ally stable. Variations in volume can Sweet potato sweet potatoes with orange flesh in cause upward or down price movements March. These were sold at lower prices but these are very limited. The average of Sweet potatoes with red skin and white than those of the white flesh varieties. EUR 1.10 per kg masks different prices flesh seem to have clearly dominated the for different commercial brands. Ordinary French market in the first quarter of 2013. The USA and Brazil sent a few very lim- cassava is often sold at EUR 1.00 per kg The main source countries were Egypt, ited shipments of sweet potatoes with whereas brands that apply greater rigour China and Honduras. Egyptian produce white peel and flesh. These sold at EUR in selection and packing sell at around was sold at an average of EUR 0.70 per 1.40 to 1.80 per kg. EUR 1.20 per kg. kg, with a minimum at EUR 0.60 per kg and a few peaks at EUR 0.90 in periods Yam of shorter supply. Produce from China Eddoe The first quarter was marked by the fetched around EUR 1.10 per kg. Hondu- In the first quarter the bulk of eddoe sup- French yam season from January to mid- ras supplied higher quality produce sold ply was exported from Costa Rica. Prices March. Prices ranged from EUR 2.30 to at more than EUR 1.50 per kg until the remained stable and healthy at an aver- 2.40 per kg with a few peaks at EUR 2.60, beginning of February before the price fell age of around EUR 1.50 per kg, with especially at the end of the period. Sales and stabilised at about 1.35. Prices recov- peaks at EUR 2.00 per kg during periods of yams from Ghana continued, with ered to their initial levels in the second of small arrivals. From February to mid- prices slightly lower from mid-February. half of March. Brazil only shipped sweet March, modest volumes from Ecuador The fairly irregular volumes consisted of potato in January with prices the same as sold for EUR 0.30 per kg more because of white yams and pona yams in proportions those for produce from Honduras. the higher transport costs. A few batches that varied each week. Pona, delivered in of cocoyams, a related tuber, also arrived At the same time, the USA shipped sweet smaller quantities, were generally sold at from Costa Rica in mid-February (EUR potatoes with red skin and orange flesh, a slightly higher price. A few batches from 2.70 per kg) and at the end of March for selling at an average of EUR 1.20-1.25 Côte d'Ivoire also reached the market but Easter. The small quantities available and per kg in January and February and EUR their uneven quality and irregular delivery brisk demand resulted in sales at a good 1.10 per kg in March. Israel only shipped did not allow coherent, continued sales. price. Cocoyams with red flesh sold at sweet potatoes with orange flesh in Janu- EUR 2.80-3.00 per kg and the rarer white ary at rising prices. Honduras had been a Cassava fleshed variety changed hands at EUR large supplier of sweet potatoes with or- Costa Rica is still the only regular supplier 3.00-3.50 per kg at the end of March. ange flesh in previous years but now shipped mainly produce with white flesh. of cassava to the EU, with prices gener- Sw eet potato - France - Weekly average w holesale price Yam - France - Weekly average w holesale price (Rungis) (Rungis) 3.5 2.0 RO 3.0 1.8 RB BB 2.5 euro/kg 1.6 2.0 1.4 euro/kg 1.5 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.8 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38 41 44 47 50 1 4 7 10 13 0.6 Ghana w hite Ghana Pona Brazil w hite 0.4 France Colombia Brazil Cuscus 14 18 22 26 30 34 38 42 46 50 2 6 10 RCI w hite Cassava - France - Weekly average w holesale price Eddoe - France - Weekly average w holesale price (Rungis) (Rungis) 2.4 1.3 2.2 1.3 2.0 1.2 1.8 euro/kg 1.2 euro/kg 1.6 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38 41 44 47 50 1 4 7 10 13 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38 41 44 47 50 1 4 7 10 13 Costa Rica Costa Rica Brazil China Sweet potato: RB: red skin, white flesh / RO: red skin, orange flesh / BB: white skin, white flesh / Source: Pierre Gerbaud No. 210 April 2013 11
Direct from the markets Other exotics First quarter of 2013 became the sole supplier of chayote in Chilli peppers Plantain February and March with prices at a steady average of EUR 1.10-1.15 per kg. The Dominican Republic supplied most The market was supplied by Colombia Prices were higher in March as ship- of the West Indian chilli pepper sold on and Ecuador. The quality of the Colom- ments from Costa Rica decreased. the French market in the first quarter of bian produce was more regular and it 2013. Prices were high in January, de- fetched slightly higher prices than that creased in February and then rose again Christophine from Costa Rica supplied from Ecuador. The general trend for the in the second half of March, although the market throughout the first quarter of first quarter of the year was a descend- they did not return to the price observed 2013. It fetched higher prices because ing curve. In March in particular, the lar- at the beginning of the year. The price supply was smaller. Prices rose before ger volumes shipped from Colombia recovery in March resulted from a de- Easter as demand was stronger. A few coincided with weak demand and prices crease in shipments. It is reported that batches arrived from Martinique in the fell. There were also problems of quality. heavy rain hit the production zones, dis- second half of March to meet growing The start of an 'excessive supply – stor- turbing plant growth and harvesting. demand from the ethnic market. The age – quality deterioration' cycle in- produce was shipped by air and sold at creased pressure on prices and resulted There were also regular shipments from EUR 2.00-2.50 per kg. in clearance sales at low prices. Guadeloupe during this period. Price was stable at about EUR 6.00 per kg. In A few small batches shipped from Mar- contrast, shipments from Martinique tinique by air were put on sale at EUR Dasheen were more variable and speculative. The 2.00-2.30 per kg. high prices asked since the beginning of Dasheen from St Vincent was practically the sole supply for the French market the year gradually decreased, especially and sold steadily at around EUR 2.20- from mid-February onwards, as the qual- Chayote / christophine 2.30 per kg. The price sometimes rose ity of the batches received was more The last batches of French chayote were when deliveries were smaller. Small uneven. sold in January, marking the end of a batches from Martinique completed sup- season that had started in August and ply from St Vincent. Transport was by air finished early because of cold weather in with the produce selling at a distinctly the production zones. Costa Rica thus higher price (EUR 3.50-4.00 per kg). Plantain - France - Weekly average w holesale price (Rungis) Chayote and christophine - France - Weekly average 2.4 w holesale price (Rungis) 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.8 euros/kg euro/kg 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.6 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38 41 44 47 50 1 4 7 10 13 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38 41 44 47 50 1 4 7 10 13 Christophine Costa Rica Christophine France Colombia Ecuador Martinique Chayote Costa Rica Chayote France Dasheen - France - Weekly average w holesale price Chilli peppers - France - Weekly average w holesale price (Rungis) (Rungis) 3.4 10.5 8.5 2.9 euro/kg 6.5 2.4 euro/kg 4.5 1.9 2.5 1.4 0.5 0.9 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38 41 44 47 50 1 4 7 10 13 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Dom. Rep. Martinique Guadeloupe Morocco Portugal Spain St Vincent France 12 April 2013 No. 210
Direct from the markets Sea freight March 2013 The TCE average for March is almost L’évaluation identical to February, disguising an de la durabilité inactive period before and after an early by Franck-Dominique Vivien, Easter. A disappointing banana market Jacques Lepart and Pascal Marty. in the eastern Med, saturated with poor quality fruit coupled with a relatively How can the actual notion of high exit price and general shortage in sustainable development be Ecuador inhibited banana chartering. It evaluated? Sustainability was Chile that made the difference this analysed from the socio- year. economic and political viewpoints. The slow start to the grape season led to an early mini- peak, leaving reefer The notion of sustainable devel- schedules under tonnaged. With Star opment was defined in the 1980s Reefers absent for the first time ever, by the Commission on Environ- chartering this year was dominated by ment and Development and is Seatrade and NYKCool. Such was the still the subject of considerable strength of demand for grapes in the controversy. The main aim of this US that principal charterers Pacific book is to contribute to its Seaways and CSAV were obliged to fix evaluation. What is the distinctive in extra tonnage – as indeed was NYK- nature of sustainable develop- Cool. While top quality modern units ment? What are its relations with with deck-stow capacity were achieving growth? What time scale is it set TC numbers in the 110-120c/cbft in—that of long-term develop- range, it was the yields from the ment or that of a countdown? ‘workhorse’ units fixing bananas that Sustainability is studied via sev- brought the average down. eral sector aspects: urban, land- scape, biodiversity, industry and The strikes in the container ports of Development of Cape Verde agromaterials. Evaluation using San Antonio in Chile and Kwai Tsing in fruit production. The policy of re- the so-called 'procedure ap- Hong Kong were a potent reminder to launching and diversifying the fruit proach', that is more pragmatic charterers and cargo interests all over sector is continuing in the Cape Verde and favoured today, consists of the world of the potential dangers of Islands, thanks to support from the respecting a number of principles entrusting cargo into box-based supply European Union (annual funding of (precautionary principle, partici- chains in which there are too many EUR 600 000). Banana, mango and pation principle, etc). variables outside their control. pineapple cultivars with better resis- In French tance to diseases were introduced at the beginning of the year. In March, Indisciplines series, Editions Quae, ISBN 978-2-7592-1904-9, pitahaya, a species well suited to March 2013, 280 pages, EUR 30, semi-arid environments, made its ap- serviceclients@quae.fr, pearance in the archipelago. http://www.quae.com Source: Reefer Trends Large reefers Grands reefers Small reefers Petits reefers MONTHLY SPOT AVERAGE jours 150 jours 125 30days 30days 2013 2013 100 2012 125 2012 Cubftxx30 2011 Cubft xx 30 R USD cents/cubic foot Large Small 2011 100 E x 30 days reefers reefers 75 Cents //Cubft Cents // Cubft E 75 50 F 50 * March 2013 88 113 E US Cents 25 US Cents R 25 March 2012 53 59 0 0 US US 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 March 2011 110 131 Semaines / SourceReefer Weeks / Source: : Reefer Trends Trends Semaines / Source Weeks / Source: : Reefer Reefer Trends Trends No. 210 April 2013 13
THE LATEST ON... Counter-season avocado in 2013 Slightly smaller potential on a vigorous market! © Régis Domergue The counter- season avocado season has not T been hit by the he dynamics—within the limits Avocado - EU-27 - Sum m er season supply slump, as was set by alternate bearing—has been faultless since the early clearly 2000s, when volumes peaked at 132 demonstrated by between 50 000 and 60 000 t. Suc- cess was complete as this fine 120 115 the 2012 season. performance in volume has been 110 104 European imports accompanied by excellent prices. In spite of the scale of supply, the 89 reached a record average season price calculated by 83 83 our market watch was a very hon- 000 tonnes 132 000 t, an all- ourable EUR 7.40 per 4 kg box in 69 62 time record that is 2012. This was the second best performance after the EUR 8.00 even higher than per box in 2011, a season that was the figure for very short in volume because of the strong South African deficit. volumes sold in What are the prospects for 2013? the winter. What Although the volumes available seem to be at a good level they are will happen in probably not such as to set a new 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013? record. Cumulated arrivals from Peru, South Africa and Kenya, the sources that provide more than 95% of EU supply, promise to be Source: Eurostat somewhat smaller than in 2012. No. 210 April 2013 15
THE LATEST ON... © Denis Loeillet Hass avocado - Peru Average sum m er season price in France (average grades 16-20) 8.0 7.4 7.0 7.0 6.7 6.1 6.3 5.9 euro/box 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: CIRAD 16 April 2013 No. 210
THE LATEST ON... Avocado — EU-27 — Summer season supply tonnes 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Total 68 937 62 386 82 664 83 329 88 956 114 946 104 013 120 419 109 712 131 985 S. Africa 36 404 29 872 46 955 35 934 37 944 50 451 38 377 47 286 26 844 48 376 Peru 11 266 14 590 18 096 30 508 35 857 49 894 45 818 56 345 65 217 62 480 Kenya 19 828 16 236 15 458 13 641 11 999 11 841 15 038 14 123 14 273 17 078 Brazil 979 979 931 1 442 1 447 1 790 2 797 2 665 3 006 3 937 Argentina 460 709 1 224 1 804 1 709 970 1 983 0 372 114 Source: Eurostat A good © Eric Imbert Avocado - South Africa South African Exports by variety harvest but not 8 as exceptional 7 as in 2012 6 million boxes South African export potential is clearly 5 smaller than it was in 2012 because the 4 latter was a record season with volumes exceeding the symbolic 12 million boxes 3 for the second time ever. With 10.5 mil- 2 Hass lion boxes expected in 2013, SAAGA 1 Green (South African Avocado Growers Asso- ciation) is expecting good supply run- 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 ning at about 15% above the average for the last years of normal production, in spite of heavy rainfall in April. Supply Source: SAAGA of 'Hass' could even be as large as last year, because the decrease affects mainly green varieties. 'Fuerte', 'Ryan' and 'Pinkerton' are sold increasingly on Hass avocado - South Africa the domestic market (average EUR 0.50 EU arrivals after w eek 40 per kg (ZAR 25 per box) according to the National Department of Agriculture) 700 which is growing in particular thanks to 600 the promotion operations conducted by thousand boxes SAAGA. The good export potential in 500 'Hass' is an indicator of the increase in 400 the area devoted to this variety. Exports reached an average of 5 million boxes 300 in the mid-2000s and approached 200 8 million boxes in 2012. Growth is marked in particular in late shipments, 100 with an increase in volumes of 'Lamb 0 Hass' and fruits from Kwazulu-Natal and 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 the cool highland zones of Mpumalanga and Limpopo. Source: SAAGA Avocado — South Africa — Exports tonnes 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 EU-27 36 404 29 872 46 955 35 934 37 944 50 451 38 377 47 286 26 844 48 376 Source: Eurostat No. 210 April 2013 17
THE LATEST ON... Avocado — Kenya — Exports tonnes 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 EU* 11 832 13 229 13 371 15 964 15 743 14 273 17 078 Arabic peninsula 1 243 2 107 2 196 2 972 4 280 - - Others 172 366 121 147 160 - - Total 13 246 15 702 15 688 19 083 20 183 - - Sources: Eurostat*, Comtrade An unexpected Slight decrease 20% increase in Kenyan export in Peruvian exports potential that that should benefit does not reflect the EU only the increase in very partially the area under 'Hass' The expected increase in Peru- A decrease, but probably just as small, will be vian production will not be a observed in Kenya. Although the rise of the surprise for anybody, given the shilling against the euro affected returns, the annual 20% increase in orchard 2012 season was nonetheless a good one for area since 2006. The 89 000 t this source, with a record total of about export potential announced by 17 000 t shipped to the EU (best performance ProHass is somewhat lower since 2003) and the consolidation of its im- than the first estimates that give age. This success is closely linked to the in- a total in excess of 100 000 t. crease in the production of 'Hass', which Colder weather than usual at the © Guy Bréhinier formed nearly three-quarters of shipments in beginning of the year seems to 2012, against 20% six years previously. How- have slowed fruit growth. But ever, the increase in exports of this variety the increase will be large— should pause in 2013, even though volumes nearly 20% more than the will remain very close to those of 2012. The 75 000 t exported in 2012. How- increasing yields from new plantations is ever, the extra volume should counter-balanced by a conjunctural decrease not benefit the EU very much. in the main producer's harvest. Although The 65 000 t allocated to problems of piracy in the Gulf of Aden are Europe is less than 10% up on less acute, logistic facilities are limited and last year's figure if export fore- costly. But operators have learned to live with casts for the other markets are that. The companies operating can ship pro- accurate. duce to the south of Europe in about 20 days, with a weekly service. Avocado — Peru — Exports tonnes 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 EU, of which 18 380 30 521 36 129 49 832 46 312 56 750 67 050 64 208 Netherlands 5 601 8 011 14 430 23 106 24 160 26 570 38 124 35 209 Spain 6 111 12 291 12 362 17 669 13 612 20 224 20 708 21 313 UK 3 378 4 757 5 899 4 953 4 097 4 412 6 030 5 428 France 2 934 4 962 3 058 3 957 4 170 5 025 1 828 1 902 N. America 224 891 807 1 013 1 426 1 700 11 481 17 530 United States 54 563 84 434 8 998 15 729 Canada 224 891 753 450 1 342 1 266 2 483 1 801 Chile - 102 400 453 479 281 400 678 Others 66 224 270 0 129 790 2 500 931 Total 18 670 31 738 37 606 51 298 48 346 59 521 81 431 83 347 Source: SUNAT 18 April 2013 No. 210
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THE LATEST ON... The United States market under Avocado - California - Production very strong pressure in 2013 273 242 234* The degree of opening of the US market is 208 196 topical again this season, and more strongly 000 tonnes than in 2012. Pressure from Mexico, which 149 137 136 should be very marked in the coming months, 118 is no surprise in the light of the historic size of the harvest of 1.3 million tonnes forecast in 79 2012-13, mainly from Michoacán. According to professional sources, US imports from Mexico already exceeded 400 000 t at the beginning of April and could reach 500 000 t by the end 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 of the season in July, breaking the previous record set in 2013 by nearly 140 000 t! How- ever, the very large Californian harvest was * estimate/ Source: CAC completely unexpected as it defies the practi- cally systematic law of alternate bearing. But a near record 230 000 t, 40% above the aver- age of the last four years, will follow the very Avocado - United States - Volum es and prices large 208 000 t harvest of 2012. It seems that on the sum m er m arket (May-August) satisfactory weather conditions and good cul- tural practices have counter-balanced alter- 52 nate bearing and the decrease in cultivated Supply (000 t, after area, especially in the San Diego area. HAB) 38 32 31 246 260* 205 175 30 151 158 Price index (USD/box 11.1 kg, source The Packer grade 40) * estimate 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Avocado - California - Evolution of orchard 10.9 2005 7.7 2009 7.0 000 hectares 7.0 6.4 6.6 2011 3.0 3.4 3.4 2.7 2.6 2.3 1.8 1.4 1.6 San Riverside Ventura Santa San Luis Diego Barbara Obispo Source: CAC No. 210 April 2013 21
THE LATEST ON... A probable increase Avocado — Peru — Main operators of shipments % 2012 exports from Peru to CAMPOSOL S.A. 15% diversification markets CPF (Consor. Prod. Frutas) 12% Canada should also import increasing volumes Soc. Agri. DROKASA 8% (about 2 000 t in preceding years) while Japan, a Agro. SOLCACE 8% sizeable diversification market, could open its doors AVO PERU SAC 5% this year. The process of access to this strongly growing market of nearly 50 000 t, with no posthar- Corp. Fruticola de Chincha 4% vest treatment planned, is being finalised. But the Agro. VERDEFLOR 4% Chilean frontier will probably not be opened before at Agro. Las Lomas de Chilca 4% least 2014. This neighbouring county has strong counter-season market potential and large domestic Agri. AYACUCHO 3% consumption potential but the phytosanitary protocol Source: SUNAT as defined today is incomplete according to Chilean growers because it does not cover avocado sun- blotch disease. A sizeable argument to allow Peru to Increased but sell better in the USA still very limited than in 2012 volumes from outsiders The HAB (Hass Avocado Board) forecasts cumu- Among 'outsider' sources, the volumes shipped from lated supply of the United States market with 10% Argentina could increase by about 30% but should more Mexican and Californian fruits than last season remain limited (about 100 tonnes last year according from April to June, with a very conservative hypothe- to customs sources). The sector is still very small sis with regard to the entry of Mexican fruits. Can and tending to shrink. A further increase in supply Peru sell more than the 15 000 tonnes exported in from Brazil is expected. Shipments consisting almost 2012 under these circumstances? ProHass counts entirely of 'Hass' approached 4 000 t in 2012 (about on 23 000 t, using the serious argument that the size 1 million boxes). Tanzania, a new source, has also of Californian fruits is limited to an average of 60 this made its debut in Europe this season. Its production season, corresponding to European size 22 for a calendar is particularly interesting and the still mod- 4 kg box. Peruvian fruits could find a position as they est volumes should increase in the coming years seem to be of good size, in contrast with fears at the (see box). beginning of the season. In addition, the trade agreement recently concluded between large Peru- vian and Chilean exporters with a longstanding posi- © Robert Clowes tion in the United States are also advantages. Tanzania Production of 'Hass' for export is centred in two zones. Most of production, on 650 hectares, is in the south of the country near Mount Rungwe. The Rungwe Avocado Company con- trols about a 100 hectares with the rest being in the hands of nearly 3 500 small growers. The production calendar runs from the beginning of January to mid-May, thus stretching from the end of the winter season to the beginning of the sum- mer. Exports transit via the port of Dar es Salaam or Mom- basa. The export potential should attain 1 250 000 boxes in five years. The other production zone is in southern Tanzania, south-west of Mount Kilimanjaro near the town of Sanya Juu. The area is smaller (about 150 ha) and the production calen- dar is slightly later. 22 April 2013 No. 210
THE LATEST ON... Strong awakening of demand in Europe Sales during the 2012 The various hypotheses result in fore- summer season casting total supply of the European Avocado — Estimated annual consumption market at between 125 000 and 130 000 Do trees grow to the sky? per capita t, slightly less than in 2012. The quantity This is a question that Summer Year should be perfectly manageable, espe- can be asked in the light Population season 2012 cially as the season is starting under (millions) of the development of 2012 (g) (g) particularly favourable conditions. Prices sales in Scandinavia. Scandinavia 24.5 *817 1 616 per box of size 18 peaked at EUR 11 to These were 24% greater Denmark 5.4 1 124 2 131 12 at the beginning of April, a level hith- than in the preceding Sweden 9.1 1 035 2 064 erto unseen at this time of the year. But season while the annual Norway 4.7 *766 1 509 what should be highlighted is the excel- Finland 5.3 176 418 consumption of over 2 kg France 63.4 600 1 197 lent behaviour of the market in recent per person in Sweden United Kingdom 60.8 320 592 months, revealing a distinct acceleration and Denmark is already Germany 82.3 127 272 of demand in Europe, bringing hope for the highest in Europe and Eastern Europe 102.2 35 87 the coming summer season and for the an excellent level for non- Russia 141.9 28 79 future in general. Statistics supplied by producer countries. The * estimate / Source: Eurostat professionals and those of our market two main EU markets watch indicate a parallel increase of held their positions: volumes held at within the 38 000 to 40 000 t 25% in prices and volumes in the first range of the two preceding years in France. The difference in con- quarter of 2013 in comparison with the sumption of nearly 1 kg per person in comparison with Denmark and four-year average. Sweden indicates the margin for growth still available and the inter- est of investing in promotion in a country in which the generalisation of ready-to-eat fruits means that full benefit can be drawn from sales Avocado - Apparent consum ption promotion operations. The small increase to nearly 20 000 t in the (May to October) United Kingdom may indicate the end of the downward trend from 45 2007 to 2011. The UK, with consumption at less than 600 g per person, and Denmark are the 40 only countries in which avocado sales are 35 greater in the summer than in the winter 30 (53 to 54% of volumes are sold in the summer). Germany has continued to 000 tonnes 25 make progress, slowly but surely! And 20 operators working in this market in the 15 winter consider that the in- crease should be more marked 10 this season, especially as the 5 scope for development is still 0 enormous (annual consump- tion is less than 300 g per per- 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 son). The volumes sold in the countries in the eastern EU are Germany also growing but are still very Scandinavia* France limited, as in Russia. Summer United Kingdom avocado consumption forms Eastern NMC 2004-2007 only 35 to 40% of annual con- * excl. Norw ay / Source: Eurostat sumption in the eastern part of Europe. Avocado — Apparent consumption in the main European markets (May to October*) Comparison 2012 on tonnes 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 average 2011 2007-08 Germany 7 446 6 029 6 689 8 748 9 816 10 471 +7% + 55 % Scandinavia** 7 649 10 285 10 768 12 520 13 241 16 423 + 24 % + 83 % France 37 803 35 942 34 545 40 131 37 659 38 049 +1% +3% United Kingdom 22 033 21 377 18 771 19 631 17 889 19 439 +9% - 10 % Eastern NMC 2004-2007 2 801 2 289 1 984 3 097 2 965 3 579 + 21 % + 41 % * including most customs declarations for South African, Peruvian and Kenyan produce / ** excl. Norway / Source: Eurostat 24 April 2013 No. 210
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