August 13 2021 Daily Forex Analysis - Finveo
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August 13 2021 Daily Forex Analysis
Daily News
• Producer prices rose a seasonally adjusted 1 % in July and record-breaking 7.8 % over the past 12 months on an unadjusted basis, according to data released
Thursday by the Labor Department. The producer price index (PPI) for final demand, which measures changes in prices charged by domestic producers to
suppliers and retailers, rose at the fastest annual pace since the federal government began calculating year-over-year PPI changes in November 2010, the Labor
Department said. The PPI without food, energy and trade services rose 6.1 % on an unadjusted basis over the past 12 months, the highest level recorded since
the series began in August 2014. Prices for final demand services also notched a record-breaking monthly increase in July, rising 1.1 % for the first time since the
Labor Department started calculating the metric in December 2009. Economists expected the PPI to rise sharply again in July after jumping 7.3 % in the year
since June.
• Several months of supply chain disruptions and a tepid jobs recovery in the manufacturing sector have made it difficult for many producers to meet the rush of
demand unleashed by the opening of the economy without raising prices. Prices are also climbing back from depths hit during the pandemic, which also
amplifies the yearly increase.
• With Fed officials expressing diverging opinions throughout the week on the timetable for a tighter monetary policy, investors remained concerns that
inflationary pressures could push the Fed to pull the trigger. Meanwhile, the U.S. data also said that 375,000 initial jobless claims were filed throughout the
week, with the number lower than the 387,000 claims filed during the previous week. Asian shares again ignored record highs hit elsewhere in the world to fall
on Friday, with declines in chip manufacturers weighing on several markets, though Australia bucked the trend. The impact of the delta variant on the course of
the epidemic in global markets and China's regulation agenda stood out as factors limiting the risk appetite. Despite breaking new records in the U.S. Stock
Exchanges , the delta variant effect and China's restrictive measures against the private sector lead to a seller's outlook in Asia. Yields on the U.S. 10-year bond
approached a one-month high as U.S. jobless claims confirm the labor market's recovery. The yield is 1.35 % in the morning hours. The Dollar Index is flat at
1.148. Oil prices fell for a second day on Friday after the International Energy Agency warned that demand growth for crude and its products had slowed sharply
as surging COVID-19 cases worldwide forced governments to revive movement restrictions. Brent crude was down 49 cents, or 0.7%, at $70.82 a barrel after
dropping 13 cents in the previous session. U.S. crude was off by 53 cents, or 0.8%, at $68.56 a barrel, having fallen 0.2% on Thursday. The benchmarks are still
heading for a slight gain this week
• EUR/USD is back in the green zone, reversing Thursday’s bearish momentum, as the U.S. dollar remains on the back foot
EUR/USD amid risk aversion-led weakness in the Treasury yields. Despite the latest bounce, the spot remains below the key 1.1750
barrier, now trading at 1.1736, up 0.08% on the day. From a near-term technical perspective, EUR/USD’s daily chart has
taken the shape of a bear pennant formation, in the wake of the recent sell-off that followed a brief consolidative phase. A
daily closing below the rising trendline support at 1.1712 is needed to validate the bearish formation, which will confirm
deeper losses in the coming days.
• Resistance: 1,1754– 1,1785- 1,1812
• Support: 1,1724 – 1,1706 - 1,1685
• GBP/USD hesitates to rise past 1.3800, up 0.05% around 1.3812 heading into Friday’s London open, despite softer U.S. dollar.
The reason could be linked to the spills from the covid woes and Brexit fears. As per the latest virus figures, the UK’s death
GBP/USD toll is 15 times higher than the early May levels whereas the daily infection is more than eight times. That said, the nation
reported 33,074 new cases on Thursday, the highest daily rate since July 23. The GBP/USD pair dropped to the multi-day low
the previous day despite upbeat Q2 GDP, 4.8% QoQ versus -1.6% prior. The reason could be linked to the U.S. dollar’s broad
strength following the Producer Price Index (PPI) data suggesting the need for tapering.
• Resistance: 1,3835 – 1,3888 - 1,3935
• Support: 1,3795– 1,3765 - 1,3720
• Gold is on the way to close the second consecutive week with losses after the strong economic data in the USA. The
XAU/USD greenback is tracking the weakness in the U.S. rates, as the ongoing spread of the Delta covid variant and Chinese regulatory
curbs dent the appetite for higher-yielding assets. Gold has regained the bullish momentum, although the bulls remain
cautious ahead of the U.S. Preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment data, which is seen steady at 81.2 in August. A
downside surprise could weigh on the Fed’s tapering expectations, bossing well for gold price. Meanwhile, a broader market
consensus that the Fed will unveil its tapering plan next month also keeps XAU/USD in a familiar range above $1750 ahead of
the key event risk.
• Resistance: 1767$ - 1783$ - 1802$
• Support: 1741$ - 1724$ - 1707$
• Increasing demand for crude ground to a halt in July and is set to rise at a slower pace over the rest of 2021 because of the
surge in infections from the Delta variant of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19, the IEA said on Thursday. In sharp
BRENTOIL contrast, OPEC on Thursday stuck to its forecasts for a rebound in oil demand globally this year and further growth in 2022,
notwithstanding the rising concern about the surge in COVID-19 infections. Futures fell below $69 a barrel in the New York
market on Thursday, while the International Energy Agency lowered its demand forecast for the remainder of the year.
Goldman Sachs, on the other hand, thinks that demand will not be affected much. In its monthly report, the Organization of
the Petroleum Exporting Countries also raised its expectations for supplies next year from other producers, including U.S.
shale drillers, which could potentially snarl efforts by the group and allies, known as OPEC+, to achieve a balance in the
market.
• Resistance: 71,40$ - 72,50$ -73,57$
• Support: 70,27$ - 69,27$ - 68,08$
• The Dow and S&P 500 jumped to record closes for a third straight day on Thursday, with mega-cap technology stocks driving
the market higher as investors warmed to jobs data showing a steady U.S. economic recovery. Apple Inc, Microsoft Corp,
S&P500 Amazon.com, Google parent Alphabet Inc and Facebook Inc, which account for a quarter of the S&P 500's market
capitalization, led shares on the S&P and tech-heavy Nasdaq. Tesla Inc TSLA.O, Nvidia Corp and Moderna Inc also rallied on a
day in which more stocks declined than advanced. Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 14.74 points, or 0.04%, to 35,499.71,
the S&P 500 gained 13.12 points, or 0.29%, to 4,460.82 and the Nasdaq Composite added 51.13 points, or 0.35%, to
14,816.26.
• Resistance: 4,457– 4,471– 4,482
• Support: 4,445– 4,435– 4,425Daily Stock News • Airbnb Inc. (NASDAQ:ABNB), stock on Thursday fell more than 4% after the company reported its second-quarter earnings. The company beat Wall Street’s expectations for revenue and bookings but warned about expected volatility from the Covid delta variant. The company reported 83.1 million nights and experiences booked, up 29% from the first quarter and up a whopping 197% year over year after the travel industry collapsed a year ago amid the Covid-19 pandemic. Analysts polled by StreetAccount had expected 79.2 million nights and experiences booked. Revenue came in at $1.34 billion, up nearly 300% year over year. Airbnb’s sales and marketing expenses for the second quarter were up 175% year over year, reaching $315 million. The company attributed the rise in marketing expenses to its Made Possible by Hosts campaign. Airbnb had warned in February that it expected its sales and marketing expenses as a percentage of revenue in the first half of 2021 to be higher than that of the second half. Gross booking value, Airbnb’s way of tracking host earnings, service fees, cleaning fees and taxes, totaled $13.4 billion, up 320% year over year and above the $11.56 billion FactSet consensus. (Neutral) • Adidas AG (XETR: ADSGN), said Thursday it has struck a deal to sell sneaker and sportswear brand Reebok to Authentic Brands Group (ABG) for up to 2.1 billion euros ($2.5 billion) as the German sporting goods company concentrates on its core brand after a deal that did not deliver. Adidas bought Reebok for $3.8 billion in 2006 to help compete with archrival Nike, but its sluggish performance prompted repeated calls from investors to sell the U.S. and Canada-focused brand. In the meantime, Adidas managed to eat into Nike's dominance in the United States with its own brand, helped by partnership with celebrities like Kanye West, Beyonce and Pharrell Williams. Reebok will keep its headquarters in Boston and continue operations in North and Latin America, Asia-Pacific, Europe and Russia, the U.S. brand management firm said in a statement, adding it will work closely with Adidas during the transition. (Negative)
Currency Last Daily Change (%) Weekly Change (%) YTD Change (%)
EURUSD 1,1739 0,08 -0,20 -3,90
GBPUSD 1,3811 0,02 -0,44 1,03
USDJPY 110,4 0,01 -0,14 -6,48
USDCHF 0,9231 0,02 -0,90 -4,11
EURGBP 0,84996 -0,05 -0,25 5,15
INDEX FUTURE Last Daily Change (%) Weekly Change (%) YTD Change (%)
SPA INDEX 4454,6 0,32 0,57 19,43
GXA INDEX 15937 0,00 1,17 16,02
DMA INDEX 35404 0,01 0,89 16,71
Commodities Last Daily Change (%) Weekly Change (%) YTD Change (%)
GC1 Comdty 1749 -0,08 -0,63 -7,71
XAUUSD Curncy 1757,02 0,23 -0,34 -7,45
CLA Comdty 68,3 -1,19 -0,01 41,67
CO1 Comdty 70,55 -1,11 -0,25 36,14
Time Cur. Event
11:00 EUR Trade Balance (Jun)
14:30 USD Export Price Index
16:00 USD Michigan Consumer SentimentYou can also read
