ALBERTA STATE OF THE MARKET - Q3 2021 - Urban Analytics
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Formerly Urban Analytics
ALBERTA
STATE OF
THE MARKET
SPONSORED BY
Q3
2021
POWERED BY
NHSLIVE
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TABLE OF CONTENTS MARKET OVERVIEW State of the Market Quarterly Publication Q3 -2021 2 Demographic Summary 3 Energy Market Summary 4 Retail Trade, CPI, Weekly Earnings 5 Alberta Mortgages and Bankruptcies 6 Alberta Building Investment and Permit Values 7 Alberta Housing Starts 8 NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME SALES Calgary New Multi-Family Home Sales 9 Edmonton New Multi-Family Home Sales 10 Calgary New Multi-Family Pricing 11 Edmonton New Multi-Family Pricing 12 NEW PURPOSE-BUILT RENTAL Calgary Purpose-Built Rental Pricing 13 Calgary Purpose-Built Rental Vacancy 14 Edmonton Purpose-Built Rental Pricing 15 Edmonton Purpose-Built Rental Vacancy 16 PROJECT LAUNCHES & PIPELINE Calgary Project Launches and Pipeline 17 Edmonton Project Launches and Pipeline 18 RESOURCES & METHODOLOGIES Methodology and Definitions 19 Sources 20 Alberta SOM (Q3-2021) Page 1
ADVISORY SERVICES
WILL HELP YOUR FIRM DEFINE AND ACHIEVE:
VISION GOAL STRATEGY EXECUTION
-Concept Overview -Revenue -Market Opportunities -Unbiased, third party
-Timeline -Absorptions -Execution Strategy product
recommendations
Standard Reports Include:
Consultation •
•
Concept Overview
Goal Assessment
•
•
Timeline Discussion
Market Overview
• Property Tour • Identify and evaluate
SWOT •
•
Neighbourhood Tour
Identify Influences
market opportunities
• Population metrics • Occupation
Demographic •
•
Age Range
Education
•
•
Segmentation
Buyer/Renter profiles
• Actively selling/leasing • Contemplated
Market Analysis •
projects
Fully leased projects •
projects/supply forecast
Resale market
• Pricing and Absorptions • Investor owned market
Product •
•
Suite mix
Suite size ranges
•
•
Parking ratios
Estimated Absorption
Recommendation • Finishing specifications • Optimum launch time
• Amenities
Contact info-alberta@urbananalytics.ca for more information.
STATE OF THE MARKET Alberta’s economy showed signs of continued growth in the third quarter of 2021. With oil prices rising and total investment in up-and-coming sectors totalling $16 billion over the past year, expansion should persist through 2022. This sentiment is further reinforced by major financial institutions such as RBC and ATB, who are forecasting economic growth of nearly six percent in 2021 and four percent in 2022 for the province. In the third quarter of 2021, unemployment levels in Edmonton decreased by a full point to 8.7 percent, while Calgary’s unemployment levels remained stable at 9.7 percent. Labour force totals and participation rates also rose slightly in both major cities on a quarterly basis. Thousands of new jobs are expected to be created in Alberta over the next few years due to a rise in international investment. Calgary will become home to a new cloud computing hub as a result of Amazon’s $4 billion dollar investment in the province. Alberta has also attracted major investment for clean energy projects including solar panel farms and hydrogen plants. The province’s growing labour force and a potential influx of inter-provincial and international migration is expected to fill new job openings in the coming years. Oil continued its strong push as prices and global demand rose once again in the third quarter of 2021. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot price was seven percent above last quarter’s average and remains at over $70 per barrel. Alberta’s average weekly earnings remained flat compared to the previous quarter, while insolvencies filed by consumers and businesses were down 22 percent on a quarterly basis and 27 percent on a yearly basis. Mortgage delinquencies in Calgary and Edmonton also decreased by seven and ten percent, respectively on a yearly basis. The housing market experienced increased activity with $4.3 billion dollars of total investment in the quarter. Investment in Calgary and Edmonton’s multi-family home markets increased by 15 and 16 percent compared to last quarter. Alberta building permit values also increased by four percent on a quarterly basis and 29 percent on a yearly basis. Total housing starts decreased by eight percent on a quarterly basis but remain 28 percent higher compared to the third quarter of 2020. Townhome starts in Edmonton increased for the second consecutive quarter with a total of 380 starts. This is the highest amount of quarterly townhome starts in Edmonton in over a year. Though new multi-family home supply is low, actively selling projects in Edmonton sold relatively well compared to previous quarters. This is similar in Calgary, where supply continues to drop but sales per project remain relatively high. Net per square foot rents in Calgary and Edmonton rose by five percent and two percent, respectively compared to last quarter. Vacancy rates for the purpose-built rental market in Calgary continue to decrease along with released and available units. Edmonton continues to experience high vacancy rates in Downtown rental units. Strong housing start numbers should offset the lack of new housing supply in the market, where new multi-family inventory totals have decreased by over 40 percent within the past three years. New multi-family home prices and net per square foot rents have increased marginally compared to last quarter, which should contribute to the absorption of incoming housing stock. Despite Alberta recording a negative net migration total in the second quarter of 2021, the increase in expected job creation over the next few years should result in this trend being reversed. Alberta SOM (Q3-2021) Page 2
PERSONALIZED MARKET PRESENTATIONS
1 Presentation 2 Discussion 3 Application
CONTACT US TO FIND OUT MORE
Features Include:
ALBERTA
STATE
OF THE Constant updates Access to project Multiple data field search
MARKET of active and new floorplans and photos and sorting functionality
multi-family project
Q3-2021 data
Powered by:
Access to Sold Out Instant analysis of relevant Fully integrated GIS
Project data and analysis resale data mapping functionsDemographic Summary
Unemployment Rate (%) Vs. Participation Rate (%)
20% 76%
74%
Unemployment Rate
Participation Rate
15% 72%
70%
10% 68%
66%
5% 64%
62%
0% 60%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Cgy Unemployment % Edm Unemployment % Cgy Participation % Edm Participation %
Calgary Calgary Edmonton Edmonton
Quarter
Unemployment Participation Unemployment Participation
Q3-2020 12.7% 72.6% 12.8% 68.2%
Q3-2021 9.7% 71.2% 8.7% 70.5%
Alberta: Calgary: Edmonton:
Q3-2019: 4.362 M Q3-2019: 1.229 M Q3-2019: 1.164 M
Q3-2020: 4.420 M Q3-2020: 1.251 M Q3-2020: 1.187 M
Population Q3-2021: 4.443 M Q3-2021: 1.266 M Q3-2021: 1.202 M
Q3-2019: 2.512 M Q3-2019: 903,400 Q3-2019: 822,500
Q3-2020 2.497 M Q3-2020: 908,200 Q3-2020: 810,000
Labour Force Q3-2021:2.474 M Q3-2021: 901,400 Q3-2021: 847,400
30,000
Alberta Migration
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
-5,000
Q2 2010 Q2 2011 Q2 2012 Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Q2 2015 Q2 2016 Q2 2017 Q2 2018 Q2 2019 Q2 2020 Q2 2021
Interprovincial Migration International Migration
Alberta SOM (Q3-2021) Page 3Energy Market Summary
WTI Vs. WCS Price
$120
$100
$80 $71.65
$60
$40 $58.02
$20
$0
Q3 2011 Q3 2012 Q3 2013 Q3 2014 Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 2020 Q3 2021
WTI WCS
Quarter WTI Spot Price WCS Spot Price Differential
Q3-2019 $55.92 $44.21 $11.70
Q3-2020 $40.89 $31.84 $9.05
Q3-2021 $70.62 $56.98 $13.64
WTI Spot WCS Spot Differential
10 YR AVG $67.59 $50.69 $16.90
5 YR LOW $19.56 $3.78 $1.06
5 YR HIGH $74.15 $58.56 $39.90
5 YR AVG $53.87 $38.62 $15.25
Alberta Oil Production
3,200 17,800 Non- Conventional (Thousand bbl)
Conventional (Thousand bbl)
3,000 15,800
13,800
2,800 14,438 11,800
2,600 9,800
2,400 7,800
2,200 2,449 5,800
3,800
2,000 1,800
1,800 -200
Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 2020 Q3 2021
Conventional Non-Conventional
Alberta SOM (Q3-2021) Page 4Retail Trade, CPI and Weekly Earnings
Retail Trade (Thousands $)
$70,000,000 $6,000,200
$60,000,000 $5,000,200
$50,000,000
$4,000,200
E-Commerce
$40,000,000
Retail
$3,000,200
$30,000,000
$2,000,200
$20,000,000
$10,000,000 $1,000,200
$0 $200
May
Nov
Nov
May
May
Mar
Jul
Mar
Jul
Mar
Jul
Sep
Sep
Sep
Jan
Jan
Jan
2019 2020 2021
Canada Alberta Canada E-Commerce
Consumer Price Index:
• Canadian E-Commerce spending decreased by 24
percent compared to the first quarter of the year and
is down by two percent on a year-over-year basis Q3-2019: 136.7
• Alberta Retail Trade decreased by five percent Q3-2020: 137.0
compared to the previous quarter and is up by three Q3-2021: 142.6
percent year-over-year
Canada
• The CPI in Alberta has increased by 1.55 percent
compared to the previous quarter and has increased
by 4.15 percent on a year-over-year basis Q3-2019: 143.4
• Average Alberta weekly earnings have remained flat Q3-2020: 144.7
compared to the previous quarter, and are down by Q3-2021: 150.7
12.33 percent on a year-over-year basis Alberta
Average Weekly Earnings
$1,400
$1,300
$1,200
$1,100
$1,077.91
$1,000
$978.59
$900
Q3-2017 Q1-2018 Q3-2018 Q1-2019 Q3-2019 Q1-2020 Q3-2020 Q1-2021 Q3-2021
Alberta Canada
Alberta SOM (Q3-2021) Page 5Alberta Mortgages and Bankruptcies
Calgary Vs. Edmonton Bankruptcies
2,000 40
1,500 30
Business
Consumer
1,000 20
500 10
0 0
Q3-2014 Q3-2015 Q3-2016 Q3-2017 Q3-2018 Q3-2019 Q3-2020 Q3-2021
Cgy Consumer Edm Consumer Edm Business Cgy Business
Alberta Bankruptcies: • Alberta insolvencies filed by consumers and businesses
decreased by 22 percent and 27 percent compared to
Business the previous quarter, respectively
• Calgary business insolvencies recorded the highest
Q3-2019: 43 quarterly decrease across all subgroups which
Q3-2020: 28 decreased by 67 percent
• Mortgage delinquencies for Canada and Alberta were
Q3-2021: 21 down by two percent and one percent, respectively
quarter over quarter
Consumer • Calgary and Edmonton mortgage delinquency rates
Q3-2019: 1,396 were down by seven percent and ten percent,
respectively on a year-over-year basis
Q3-2020: 795 • Edmonton had the highest delinquency rate in Alberta at
44 percent which is down three percent from the
Q3-2021: 577 previous quarter and down by ten percent on a yearly
basis
Mortgage Delinquency Rates
55%
45% 44%
35%
31%
25%
20%
15%
Q3-2015 Q3-2016 Q3-2017 Q3-2018 Q3-2019 Q3-2020 Q3-2021
Canada Calgary Edmonton
Alberta SOM (Q3-2021) Page 6Alberta Building Investment and Permit Values
Total Residential AB Alberta Building Permit Value Proportions
Building Permit
Values Q3-2020 Q2-2021 Q3-2021
3%
22% 19%
40% 37% 47%
60%
34%
Q3-2019: $2.026 B 38%
Q3-2020: $1.879 B
Q3-2021: $2.434 B Calgary Edmonton Remainder
• 81 percent of total Alberta building permit values in the third quarter of
2021 were generated in Calgary and Edmonton, which is 16 percent
lower than in the previous quarter
• Total Alberta residential building permit values increased by four
AB Single Family percent compared to the previous quarter and were up 29 percent
Investment: compared to the same quarter last year
$2.8 B • Residential building permit values were down 18 percent in Calgary and
six percent in Edmonton compared to the previous quarter
• Total Alberta residential housing investment for the third quarter of
2021 was $4.35 billion, which is $578 million higher (15 percent) than
the previous quarter
• Calgary multi-family housing investment increased by 15 percent
($101 million) while Edmonton multi-family investment increased by 16
AB Multi-Family percent on a quarterly basis
Investment: • Total single-family investment increased by nine percent in both
$1.5 B Calgary and Edmonton on a quarterly basis
Alberta Building Permit Values (Thousands $)
$2,000,000
$1,454,579
$1,500,000
$979,498
$1,000,000
$500,000 $654,204
$0
Q3 2012 Q3 2013 Q3 2014 Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 2020 Q3 2021
Single Dwelling Multiple Dwelling Total Commercial
Alberta SOM (Q3-2021) Page 7Alberta Housing Starts
5,000
4,000
3,000 2,746
2,000 2,306
1,000
Q3 2011 Q3 2012 Q3 2013 Q3 2014 Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2019 Q3 2020 Q3 2021
Calgary Edmonton
Calgary Housing Starts
Apartment Townhome Single Family
1,275 348 1,123
• Total housing starts decreased by eight percent in Calgary and remained stable in
Edmonton when compared to the previous quarter
• The largest increase in quarterly housing starts occurred in the townhome sector of
Edmonton, which increased by ten percent compared to Q2-2021
• 2021 year to date housing starts across all sectors totaled 7,926 in Calgary and 6,413
in Edmonton
• Apartment starts in Calgary decreased by eight percent compared to Q2-2021 and
were up 23 percent on a yearly basis. Apartment starts in Edmonton decreased by
seven percent quarterly and 15 percent year-over-year
Edmonton Housing Starts
Apartment Townhome Single Family
788 380 1,138
Alberta SOM (Q3-2021) Page 8Calgary New Multi-Family Home Sales
Quarterly Sales by Product Type
71 410 454
54 50 153
Concrete Wood Frame Townhome
Calgary Edmonton
• The Outer North and Outer South sub-markets accounted for 74 percent of Q3-2021
sales in Calgary
• The next most active sub-market was the Inner Northwest accounting for 13 percent of
sales in Calgary. The majority of buyers are first-time buyers and downsizers due to the
relatively affordable price point
• There are currently 11 concrete condominium, 59 wood frame condominium and 70
townhome projects that are actively selling in Calgary
• Total sales decreased by six percent compared to the previous quarter as townhomes
experienced a quarterly sales decrease of 14 percent. Total sales were up 12 percent on
a yearly basis
• Total condominium sales outpaced townhome sales in the quarter, as 481 and 454 sales
were recorded, respectfully. This is uncharacteristic for Calgary’s market where
historically townhomes are the primary driver of the new multi-family home market
600
Calgary New Multi-Family Home Sales
500
454
400 410
300
200
100
71
0
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Concrete Wood Frame Townhomes
Alberta SOM (Q3-2021) Page 9Edmonton New Multi-Family Home Sales
Quarterly Sales by Product Type
71 410 454
54 50 153
Concrete Wood Frame Townhome
Calgary Edmonton
• New multi-family home sales in Edmonton decreased by 42 percent compared to the previous quarter
but remained within nine percent of 2020’s third quarter sales total
• Townhome sales decreased by 43 percent compared to the previous quarter. Actively selling
townhome projects also decreased by 20 percent on a quarterly basis
• 71 percent of Q3-2021 sales in Edmonton were in the Southwest and Southeast sub-markets, which
continued to drive overall market activity in the city
• There are currently nine concrete condominium, 12 wood frame condominium and 49 townhome
projects that are actively selling in Edmonton. The 70 total actively selling projects in Edmonton is 16
percent lower than last quarter’s total
• Active projects averaged 3.7 sales in the third quarter of 2021 which is the best among third quarters in
four years
• Total released and unsold inventory levels in Edmonton decreased by 11 percent compared to the
previous quarter and are 42 percent lower on a yearly basis. Total released and unsold inventory levels
have decreased in consecutive quarters dating back to the fourth quarter of 2019
400 Edmonton New Multi-Family Home Sales
350
300
250
200
153
150
100 54
50
50
0
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Concrete Wood Frame Townhomes
Alberta SOM (Q3-2021) Page 10Calgary New Multi-Family Home Pricing
Concrete Wood Frame Townhome
$636 PSF $369 PSF $271 PSF
$1,006
$1,006
$766
$634
$632
$631
$241
$239
$235
$558
$551
$504
$500
$500
$498
$495
$484
$430
$426
$424
$317
$279
$300
$269
$275
$321
$323
$266
$270
$271
BL/EV EC/WV Inner NW Inner NE Inner SW Inner SE Outer North Outer South Airdrie Cochrane
Q3-2020 Q2-2021 Q3-2021
• The average price per square foot across all unit types in Calgary increased by 0.6 percent
while the average unit price increased by 1.8 percent when compared to the previous
quarter
• All product types experienced an increase in average unit price; concrete condominium by
0.91 percent; wood frame condominium by 1.9 percent; and townhomes by 2.36 percent
• The Outer North and Outer South sub-markets, which account for 74 percent of all actively
selling multi-family projects both experienced a 1.4 percent increase and 2.0 percent
increase in average unit price, respectively
• The most expensive sub-market in Calgary continues to be Eau Claire/West Village at
$1,006 per square foot. The Outer North is the most affordable sub-market within the
Calgary city limits at $275 per square foot
Q3-2020 Q2-2021 Q3-2021
Year-Over-Year Quarter-Over-Quarter
Concrete
$633 PSF 9.26% 0.46% $631 PSF 0.91% 0.68% $636 PSF
$519,703 Price $PSF $562,720 Price $PSF $567,838
Wood Frame
$368 PSF 0.39% 0.11% $369 PSF 1.90% 0% $369 PSF
$324,282 Price $PSF $317,890 Price $PSF $323,941
Townhome
$260 PSF 2.55% 4.45% $263 PSF 2.36% 3.06% $271 PSF
$346,269 Price $PSF $346,889 Price $PSF $355,092
Alberta SOM (Q3-2021) Page 11Edmonton New Multi-Family Home Pricing
Concrete Wood Frame Townhome
$588 PSF $312 PSF $234 PSF
$646
$646
$594
$373
$373
$350
$350
$349
$336
$335
$330
$322
$274
$274
$273
$242
$242
$241
$240
$236
$235
Downtown Northwest Northeast Southwest Southeast St. Albert Sherwood Park
Q3-2020 Q2-2021 Q3-2021
• The average unit price across all product types in Edmonton increased by 4 percent compared to
last quarter
• Overall, average unit prices remained relatively stable in the third quarter of 2021. The largest
change occurred in the Southwest, where average unit prices rose by just under three percent
• The most affordable Edmonton sub-market on a per square foot basis continues to be the
Northeast at $240 per square foot which increased by 0.4 percent compared to the previous
quarter
• The most expensive sub-market was Downtown at $646 per square foot which remained stable
compared to the second quarter of 2021
Q3-2020 Q2-2021 Q3-2021
Year-Over-Year Quarter-Over-Quarter
Concrete
$563 PSF 8.98% 4.44% $588 PSF -0.05% 0.00% $588 PSF
$596,041 Price $PSF $649,879 Price $PSF $649,570
Wood Frame
$299 PSF 10.59% 4.35% $305 PSF 6.54% 2.30% $312 PSF
$294,225 Price $PSF $305,422 Price $PSF $325,396
Townhome
$225 PSF 1.24% 4.00% $229 PSF 0.81% 2.18% $234 PSF
$308,882 Price $PSF $310,210 Price $PSF $312,719
Alberta SOM (Q3-2021) Page 12Calgary Newer Purpose-Built Rental Pricing
AVERAGE NET RENT $PSF PER SUB -MARKET
$2.63
$2.53
$2.45
$2.35
$2.33
$2.33
$2.26
$2.25
$2.23
$2.23
$2.16
$2.00
$1.66
$1.65
$1.63
$1.63
$1.50
$1.44
Downtown Inner North Outer North Inner South Outer South A i rd ri e
Q3-2020 Q2-2021 Q3-2021
Avg Net Rent
$PSF Studio
$1,127/Mo
1 Bed/1 Bth 2 Bed/1 Bth 2 Bed/2 Bth
$1,408/Mo $1,571/Mo $1,800/Mo
• The average net rent per square foot in Calgary (excluding
Airdrie and Cochrane) is $2.28. This is a five percent
increase compared to the previous quarter and an eight
percent increase on a yearly basis
• Downtown projects are achieving the highest average net
Q3-2019: $2.08 rent per square foot at $2.62, which is a seven percent
Q3-2020: $2.12 increase on a yearly basis
• Outer North projects are achieving the lowest average net
Q3-2021: $2.28 per square foot rents at $1.78 which is a nine percent
increase compared to the previous quarter
Occupancy Vs. Net Rents $PSF
$2.30 $2.28 100%
96%
$2.20
92%
% Occupancy
92%
$PSF
$2.10
88%
$2.00
84%
$1.90 80%
Q3-2018 Q1-2019 Q3-2019 Q1-2020 Q3-2020 Q1-2021 Q3-2021
Avg $PSF Avg Occupancy Rate
Alberta SOM (Q3-2021) Page 13Calgary Newer Purpose-Built Rental Vacancy
Vacancy Rates Q3-2021 Q3-2020 Q3-2019
13% 23%
51% 49%
Q3-2019: 8% 87% 77%
Q3-2020: 18%
Q3-2021: 7.8% Active Fully Leased
Released and Available Units by Sub-Market
Downtown Inner North Outer North Inner South Outer South Airdrie Cochrane
480 159 256 174 90 5 2
• One new purpose-built rental project comprising of 140 new units was released in
Calgary during the third quarter of 2021
• Released and available units decreased by 33 percent, or 584 units, compared to the
previous quarter. Total released and available units were down by 44 percent, or 928
units on a year-over-year basis
• Downtown had the highest number of released and available units of any Calgary sub-
market with 480 units and an 11 percent vacancy rate. Released and available
inventory in the Downtown sub-market decreased by 46 percent, or 415 units
compared to the previous quarter
• 27 percent of actively leasing projects were in the Inner South sub-market at the end
of the most recent quarter
Avg Occupancy by Sub-Market
99%
99%
97%
94%
93%
92%
91%
91%
91%
89%
89%
85%
83%
82%
79%
79%
71%
66%
Downtown Inner North Outer North Inner South Outer South A i rd ri e
Q3-2020 Q2-2021 Q3-2021
Alberta SOM (Q3-2021) Page 14Edmonton Newer Purpose-Built Rental Pricing
$2.12 AVERAGE NET RENT $PSF PER SUB -MARKET
$2.07
$2.00
$1.79
$1.79
$1.78
$1.63
$1.63
$1.61
$1.60
$1.60
$1.60
$1.59
$1.57
$1.57
$1.54
$1.52
$1.52
$1.51
$1.47
$1.47
Downtown Northeast Northwest Southwest Southeast Sherwood St Albert
Park
Q3-2020 Q2-2021 Q3-2021
Avg Net Rent
Studio 1 Bed/1 Bth 2 Bed/1 Bth 2 Bed/2 Bth
$PSF $1,085/Mo $1,253/Mo $1,281/Mo $1,490/Mo
• Net per square foot rents in Edmonton averaged $1.70
in the third quarter of the year, up by two percent or
$0.04 PSF from the previous quarter
• Downtown projects achieved the highest average
monthly per square foot rents in Edmonton at $2.12,
Q3-2019: $1.67 which is two percent higher than the previous quarter
Q3-2020: $1.64 and six percent higher on a yearly basis
Q3-2021: $1.70 • Northeast projects achieved the lowest monthly per
square foot rents in Edmonton at $1.57
Occupancy Vs. Net Rents $PSF $1.70
$1.70 100%
98%
$1.68 96%
94%
$1.66 90% 92%
90%
$1.64 88%
86%
$1.62 84%
82%
$1.60 80%
Q3-2018 Q1-2019 Q3-2019 Q1-2020 Q3-2020 Q1-2021 Q3-2021
Avg $PSF Avg Occupancy Rate
Alberta SOM (Q3-2021) Page 15Edmonton Newer Purpose-Built Rental Vacancy
Q3-2021 Q3-2020 Q3-2019
Vacancy Rates
15% 15%
30%
70%
85% 85%
Q3-2019: 7%
Q3-2020: 9%
Active Fully Leased
Q3-2021: 9.9%
Released and Available Units by Sub-Market
Downtown Northeast Northwest Southwest Southeast Sherwood Park St. Albert
1,420 47 268 226 60 16 117
• Zonda Urban is currently monitoring 130 projects in the Edmonton market on an
ongoing basis, 20 of these projects are actively leasing
• There are currently 2,154 released and available purpose-built rental units in
Edmonton. This total represents a two percent decrease from the previous quarter
and is 36 percent higher than the same quarter last year
• The Downtown sub-market has the highest number of released and available units of
any Edmonton sub-market with 1,420 units
• The Downtown sub-market has the highest vacancy rate of any sub-market at 29.6
percent which is a three percent decrease compared to the previous quarter
Avg Occupancy Per Sub-Market
99%
98%
98%
96%
96%
96%
96%
95%
95%
93%
93%
93%
92%
92%
88%
86%
86%
81%
81%
70%
68%
Downtown Northeast Northwest Southwest Southeast S h e rw o o d S t A l b e rt
P a rk
Q3-2020 Q2-2021 Q3-2021
Alberta SOM (Q3-2021) Page 16Calgary Project Launches & Pipeline
New Multi-Family Homes New Purpose-Built Rental
Project Launches Project Launches
Five project launches occurred in the third One project launch occurred in the third
quarter of 2021, bringing 140 wood frame and quarter of 2021, bringing 140 rental units to
131 townhome units to the market. the market.
• Seton Summit Building 3 by Cedarglen (Outer • Skyward Living Phase 2 (Outer North)
South)
Coming Soon Projects
• Riverstone Manor Building 2 by Cedarglen
(Outer South) Ten new projects are anticipated to launch
• Streams of Lake Mahogany by Jayman within the next six months, bringing an
(Outer South) additional 2,656 rental units to the market.
• Red Embers Point by Streetside (Outer • The Fifth (52 units)
North) • BLVD Beltline (649 units)
• Savanna in Saddle Ridge by Truman (Outer • The Deville (333 units)
North)
• The Beverly (35 units)
Coming Soon Projects • Hat @ West Village (584 units)
Four projects are anticipated to launch within • Lakeside at Yorkville (450 units)
the next six months in the Outer South, Outer • The Level at Seton Circle (81 units)
North, Inner Southwest, and Downtown sub-
markets of Calgary. • Montgomery Square (51 units)
• Nude by Battistella Developments • The Heights at Panorama (52 units)
(Beltline/East Village) • Eleven (369 units)
• Les Jardins Condos by Jayman (Outer
South)
• Seton Townhomes by Rohit (Outer South)
• Designer Apartments by Rohit (Inner
Southwest)
Alberta SOM (Q3-2021) Page 17Edmonton Project Launches & Pipeline
New Multi-Family Homes New Purpose-Built Rental
Project Launches Project Launches
Zonda Urban is continuing to monitor the Five project launches occurred in the third
progress of new multi-family projects as quarter of 2021, bringing 921 rental units to
they proceed through the planning and the market.
approvals process.
• Greenstone Park (NW)
• Westpoint Greens (NW)
Coming Soon Projects
• CX Grandin (Downtown)
The following projects are anticipated to
launch within the next 12-24 months in the • 121 West (Downtown)
Southeast, St. Albert, Downtown, and • Brickyard off 4th (Downtown)
Northeast sub-markets of Edmonton.
• The View at Charlesworth (Southeast)
Coming Soon Projects
• Parc Residence at Grandin Parc Village
Phase 2 (St. Albert) Ten projects are anticipated to launch
• The Flats in Rossdale Phase 2 within the next six months, bringing 1,021
Townhomes (Downtown) rental units to the market.
• McConachie Skylark (Northeast) • Slate Phase 1 (44 units)
• Nordic Village by Streetside (Northwest) • The Louvre at Century Park (104 units)
• Riverbank Landing by Boudreau • Stadium Yards Building 2 (153 units)
Developments (St. Albert) • Gill Village (199 units)
• Village on 66th Street (65 units)
• Slate Phase 2 (60 units)
• University Heights (195 units)
• Holyrood Court Building 5 (89 units)
• 10882 98 Street NW (16 units)
• Maple Crest Townhomes (96 units)
Alberta SOM (Q3-2021) Page 18Methodology and Definitions
Prices
Prices for new condominiums and townhomes in Calgary and Edmonton were
collected from actively selling new multi-family projects in ZU’s proprietary
new home database NHSLive.
Analytical Methods Newer Purpose-Built Rental
Apartment Rental Stock in Calgary and Edmonton: Sum of “move-in ready”
units by product type. “Move-in ready” is defined as those projects that are
Fully Leased, as well as those that are Active (actively leasing) with standing
inventory sample size of 1,400 units within 107 newer rental apartment and
townhome projects in Calgary and sample size of 1,931 units within 132 newer
rental apartment and townhome projects in Edmonton.
Currently Available Average Rent per Square Foot: A weighted average of
rental rates of currently available units in fully leased projects and average
rental rates achieved in projects that have been actively leasing for greater
than three months. The average per region is based on average dollar per
square foot prices for each sub-market.
Retail
Alberta retail has been deducted from total Canadian retail sales to avoid
double counting.
Mortgage Delinquency
Mortgage Delinquency refers to overdue mortgage debt including late
payments or past-due payments on a residential loan and is representative of
the share of loans that are past due by 90 days or more.
Alberta SOM (Q3-2021) Page 19Sources Page 3 Calgary and Edmonton Population - Stats Canada Quarterly Demographic Estimates Calgary and Edmonton Labour Force - Stats Canada Monthly Labour Force Survey Calgary and Edmonton Unemployment Rate – Stats Canada Monthly Labour Force Survey Calgary and Edmonton Participation Rate – Stats Canada Monthly Labour Force Survey Alberta Migration – Alberta Quarterly Population Report Page 4 WTI & WCS Spot Price – Alberta Government Economic Dashboard Page 5 Retail Trade and E-commerce - Stats Canada Retail E-commerce sales Consumer Price Index – AB Stats Consumer Price Index Alberta Weekly Earnings – Alberta Office of Statistics and Information Page 6 Alberta Mortgage Delinquency – CMHC National Mortgage and Credit Trends Alberta Bankruptcies – Industry Canada Insolvency Statistics Page 7 Alberta Building Permit Proportion and Values – Stats Canada Building Permits Apartment Investments - CMHC Housing Now – Alberta Townhome Investments - CMHC Housing Now – Alberta Page 8 Alberta Total Housing Starts- CMHC Housing Now – Alberta Calgary Housing Starts - CMHC Housing Now – Calgary Edmonton Housing Starts - CMHC Housing Now – Edmonton Page 9 Calgary New Multi-Family Home Sales - ZU New Home Source Database Page 10 Edmonton New Multi-Family Home Sales - ZU New Home Source Database Page 11 Calgary New Multi-Family Home Pricing - ZU New Home Source Database Calgary New Multi-Family Price Per Square Foot - ZU New Home Source Database Calgary New Multi-Family Average Unit Price % Change - ZU New Home Source Database Alberta SOM (Q3-2021) Page 20
Sources Page 12 Edmonton New Multi-Family Home Pricing - ZU New Home Source Database Edmonton New Multi-Family Price Per Square Foot - ZU New Home Source Database Edmonton New Multi-Family Average Unit Price % Change - ZU New Home Source Database Page 13 Calgary Purpose-Built Rental Pricing - ZU New Home Source Database Calgary Average Net Rent $PSF - ZU New Home Source Database Calgary Average Occupancy Vs. Average $PSF - ZU New Home Source Database Page 14 Calgary Purpose-Built Rental Vacancy - ZU New Home Source Database Calgary Active Vs. Fully Leased Projects - ZU New Home Source Database Calgary Released and Available Units by Submarket - ZU New Home Source Database Calgary Average Occupancy by Submarket - ZU New Home Source Database Page 15 Edmonton Purpose-Built Rental Pricing - ZU New Home Source Database Edmonton Average Net Rent $PSF - ZU New Home Source Database Edmonton Average Occupancy Vs. Average $PSF - ZU New Home Source Database Page 16 Edmonton Purpose-Built Rental Vacancy - ZU New Home Source Database Edmonton Active Vs. Fully Leased Projects - ZU New Home Source Database Edmonton Released and Available Units by Submarket - ZU New Home Source Database Edmonton Average Occupancy by Submarket - ZU New Home Source Database Page 17 Calgary Project Launches & Pipeline - ZU New Home Source Database Page 18 Edmonton Project Launches & Pipeline - ZU New Home Source Database Alberta SOM (Q3-2021) Page 21
ALBERTA STATE OF THE MARKET
Thank you for reading the Alberta State of the Market quarterly
publication. Zonda Urban looks forward to monitoring the
economic conditions in Alberta and all other actively selling new
home projects and reporting our findings to subscriber clients
through our NHSLive platform.
We appreciate your feedback! Please contact us with any
questions regarding this Zonda Urban Alberta State of the Market
Report or any of our other periodic publications. In addition to
maintaining the most current new multi-family home and rental
apartment project data on NHSLive.ca, Zonda Urban provides
advisory and consulting services that can be tailored to meet your
firm’s specific needs. Please contact us to discuss how we can
assist you in the design or positioning of your new multi-family
home community.
info-alberta@urbananalytics.ca
Alberta SOM (Q3-2021) Page 22You can also read
