AKADEMIE IM DIALOG 18 - GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS IN A MEDIATIZED WORLD
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AKADEMIE IM
DIALOG | 18
GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS IN
W W W.O E AW. A C . AT
ISBN 978-3-7001-8653-3 A MEDIATIZED WORLD
GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS IN A MEDIATIZED WORLD INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM, 4–5 APRIL 2019 AUSTRIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
CONTENTS
CONTENTS
MICHAEL ALRAM | Vice-President, Austrian Academy of Sciences
Foreword .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 5
SIMONE GINGRICH, MATTHIAS KARMASIN, WOLFGANG LUTZ, VERENA WINIWARTER
Introductory Remarks of the Program Committee ....................................................................................................................................... 9
MATTHIAS KARMASIN
The SDGs in a Mediatized World ..................................................................................................................................................................... 11
NEBOJSA NAKICENOVIC
The World in 2050 and the Six Grand Transformations towards the Sustainable Development Goals ................................................ 17
WOLFGANG LUTZ
YoGL: One Indicator for Assessing Sustainable Human Wellbeing ........................................................................................................... 37
SIMONE GINGRICH
Communicating for Sustainability:
Interactive Settings at the Symposium ”Global Sustainable Development Goals in a Mediatized World” .......................................... 51
MARTIN BERNHOFER
Information or Participation? ......................................................................................................................................................................... 63
MARINA FISCHER-KOWALSKI
Sustainable Development Goals: Reflections from Social Ecology ............................................................................................................. 67
VERENA WINIWARTER
Human Nature. The Art of Sustainability ...................................................................................................................................................... 71
PROGRAM: INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM
Global Sustainable Development Goals in a Mediatized World ................................................................................................................. 77
ÖAW 3
FOREWORD
FOREWORD
MICHAEL ALRAM
The Agenda 2030 challenges the nize an international symposium logue between the disciplines and
world to achieve 17 Sustainable to show how science contributes to beyond, with stakeholders outside of
Development Goals (SDGs). This achieving the Agenda 2030. The com- the academic world, are needed. In
challenge asks people and institutions mittee identified a novel dimension to the final round of the symposium, of
to change, to innovate, to rethink. If SDG-driven research: the interaction which two contributions are included
we are to accomplish the ambitious between mass media, social media, in this volume, it became clear that
goals laid out in the Agenda 2030, and the Agenda 2030. For two days the data challenge cannot be met if
we need all the brainpower we can in April 2019, over 300 participants the commitment of governments to
get. As Austria’s largest non-univer- asked questions, exchanged ideas, funding statistical data collection and
sity research and science institution, and communicated across disciplines interpretation wanes. Public interest
many of the brightest minds in Austria and beyond the academic world about needs public funding, in science and
work in institutes of the Austrian the SDG agenda and the challenges beyond.
Academy of Sciences and many of and opportunities it offers for scholar- The symposium encompassed vari-
the brightest minds around the world ship. Questions of how to effectively ous interactive formats, a poster ses-
are part of our membership. communicate scientific results to pol- sion and an exhibition. It led. It led
The OeAW took stock and looked icy makers and to a broader audience to an episode of the Academy's pod-
at what its members, institutes, and were also addressed. One critical cast MIKRO-MAKRO and attracted a
researchers are already contributing; prerequisite for sustainable develop- lot of media attention. By hosting this
only to discover that all 17 SDGs are ment in all the 17 areas of the Agenda symposium, the OeAW has shown
being already addressed in one form 2030 is evidence-based decision- its pro-active approach towards the
or another. Needless to say, much making for which trustworthy schol- scholary agenda arising from the
more should be done. arly knowledge is required. Such SDGs. It remains committed to the
In the spring of 2018, the Presidency evidence rests firmly on the full science-society interface and will
of the Academy formed a programm freedom of the scientific world. This continue to play an agenda-setting
committe of four members (Simone symposium showed that a free and role in processes such as the SDGs.
Gingrich, Matthias Karmasin, Wolfgang independent media and the ability
Lutz, and Verena Winiwarter) to orga- and willingness to engage in dia-
ÖAW 5
OeAW President Anton Zeilinger welcomes Dr. Heinz Fischer, Co-Chair of the Ban Ki-moon
Centre who delivered a greeting address to the symposium.
ÖAW 7
INTRODUCTORY REMARKS
INTRODUCTORY
REMARKS
For all the rich research and discus- reflected, and criticized. Communi-
sion that the SDGs ignited, no schol- cation plays an important and some-
arly exchange had yet taken place to times decisive role in the individual
ask what the ‘mediatization’ of society and public awareness and acceptance,
would and could mean for the imple- as well as the political and economic
mentation of the Agenda 2030. How- legitimation of the SDGs. Currently,
ever, this permeation of mass and digitalization, convergence, and
social media discourses into all areas globalization of the societal envi-
of society and the changes of com- ronment rapidly change ‘landscapes
munication due to the availability of communication’. The symposium
of information almost anytime and highlighted these aspects, discussed
anywhere is clearly important in the the consequences across disciplines,
context of sustainable development. and elaborated on the implications of
Thus, the international symposium research related to the implementa-
“Global Sustainable Development tion of the Agenda 2030.
Goals in a Mediatized World”, organ- The Austrian Academy of Sciences Program Committee (from left to right):
ized by the Austrian Academy of intended focus on the contributions Wolfgang Lutz, Simone Gingrich, Verena
Sciences, initiated a much-needed dis- that scientists can make to the SDGs Winiwarter, Matthias Karmasin
course that will need to be continued. and deepen the interdisciplinary dia-
Achieving the goals laid out in the logue among scientists and beyond.
Agenda 2030 in a mediatized world International scholarly discussion on
poses new challenges and opportu- the SDGs would benefit from scientists
nities for all stakeholders, including in all fields, and in particular the less
the scientific community. Mediati- present in the international scholarly
zation shapes public discourses and discussion on the SDGs, colleagues
thus influences the way in which with areas of expertise not typically
the Agenda 2030 is implemented, considered when discussing the
ÖAW 9INTRODUCTORY REMARKS
SDGs were particularly invited to the Austrian Public Radio’s Science The program committee wishes to
take part. program, Martin Bernhofer, reflects express its gratitude to the presi-
A combination of plenary presenta- on the role of media, while Marina dency of the ÖAW for the initiative,
tions, posters, interactive formats, Fischer-Kowalski discusses the SDG to all colleagues, and in particular to
and an art exhibition enabled the agenda in the light of many decades of the staff of the Academy of Sciences
more than 300 participants to engage research in the sustainability sciences. for the support and co-operation that
with research related to any of the 17 Verena Winiwarter spoke at the open- made this success possible.
SDGs and to communicate their own ing of the art exhibition, which took In many ways, this symposium was
research results that contribute to place as an integral, non-traditional a beginning, not an end. While the
implementing the Agenda 2030. The part of the symposium. Her remarks notion of “Fallaciloquence”, deceitful
feedback from the attendees shows on the art of sustainability close these speech, (as explained in Blount’s
that the congress was timely and glimpses from an event that of course, Glossographia of 1656), might be
valuable. was more than can be captured in registered as obsolete in the Oxford
This volume of “Akademie im Dialog” these pages. English Dictionary, the practice of
captures some highlights of the sym- The SGDs are not an abstract plan, such speech is unfortunately alive
posium. In his introductory remarks, they are meant as guidelines to a and well. It will remain an impor-
Matthias Karmasin lays out the chal- changed practice of society. Therefore, tant task for scholars to engage in
lenges and possibilities of mediatiza- the symposium strived to meet the research and public outreach to offer
tion for society in general and for the criteria of the Austrian Eco-Label for facts against fallacious factoids, to
scientific community in particular. Green Meetings and Green Events support evidence-based policies but
The contributions by Nebojsa Naki- within the constraints that a historic also to develop the inter- and trans-
cenovic, the public evening speaker, building like the Austrian Acad- disciplinary approaches needed to
and Wolfgang Lutz, the opening key- emy’s main building carries: The support society on its path towards
note presenter, show the scholarly registration process was 100 percent a more sustainable future. The SDG´s
breadth of the SDG agenda. Simone paperless, registration for breaks will stay on the agenda – not only –
Gingrich presents the diverse com- was required to minimize food but also of the Austrian Academy of
municative formats of the sympo- waste, badges and lanyards could be Sciences.
sium in her reflections, which are dropped for reuse. Participants were
accompanied by images and text encouraged to opt for an environ-
snippets from the facilitators of the mentally friendly way of travelling
group discussions. The final panel to Vienna by public transport or car-
discussion of the symposium asked pool, or to make up for the CO2 emis-
about lessons learned for various sions by paying a compensation. The
action fields of society. The head of use of bicycles was encouraged.
ÖAW 10MATTHIAS KARMASIN
THE SDGS IN A MEDIATIZED
WORLD – INTRODUCTORY
REMARKS
MATTHIAS KARMASIN
1. MEDIATIZATION AND ago, Lievrouw/Livingstone (2009) via digitalization and networking.
CHANGING LANDSCAPES OF prefaced the volume Major Works In mediatized social worlds,3 the
COMMUNICATION in New Media by stating: “No part changes affect almost every aspect of
of the world, no human activity, is interaction – the economy, politics,
Mediatization is one of the meta- untouched by the new media. Soci- sports, healthcare, the arts, science,
processes 1 such as globalization, eties worldwide are being reshaped, education, the familiy, to name just a
urbanization, individualization, for better or for worse, by changes few – and hence it is not far fetched
demographic change, and climate in the global media and information to conclude they also affect the way
change that shape global societies. environment. So, too, are the every- we perceive and realize the SDGs on
The omnipresence of media and day lives of their citizens. National every level of social aggregation.
the possibility to be online almost and subnational forms of social, So this holds not only on the societal
anytime and anywhere – not only political and economic inclusion and or the macro level when it comes to
in the global north – has funda- exclusion are reconfigured by the political decisions concerning how to
mentally changed how we live and increasing reliance on information realize the SDGs (if at all), as opposed
interact in today’s world. A decade and communication technologies to merely committing to them as sun-
in mediating almost every dimen- shine values, and how to set priorities
sion of social life.”2 This process has regarding what has to be done and
Krotz, F., Despotović, C., & Kruse, M.-M., (eds.) continued, at an even higher pace what has to be done first, how much
1
(2017). Mediatisierung als Metaprozess:
Transformationen, Formen der Entwicklung
und die Generierung von Neuem. Wies- 2
Lievrouw, L. & Livingstone, S. (eds.) (2009). 3
Hepp, A. & Krotz, F. (eds.) (2014). Mediatized
baden: VS. Major Works in New Media. London: Sage. Worlds. Houndsmills: Palgrave.
ÖAW 11MATTHIAS KARMASIN
risk we want to take as a society and And also, on the level of families and “prosumer” due to the dismantling
how safe is safe enough – but also in individuals, decisions like consump- of the division between producer
which direction we should motivate tion, mobility behaviour, investments and consumer and the algorithmic
or, in newspeak, “nudge” people. and, of course, political choices are production of content have not made
This is also an issue of relevance on dependent on mediated information the question easier to answer in the
the level of organizations and espe- and whether individuals are willing view of the general public, it seems.
cially corporations. The question to act rationally with a long-term Empirical studies like the Edelman
whether they merely pursue share- orientation or just emotionally and trust barometer6 clearly show that
holder interests or whether they guided by hedonistic utilitarianism. mediatization has shaken the foun-
also take broader responsibility for This, of course, also has something to dations of trust and the hierarchies of
stakeholders and future generations, do with the question as to what infor- knowledge in politics, legacy media
even if they are not forced to do so mation we rely on, especially when and even science.
by politics, is also decided in medi- the message is somehow disturbing This makes trust and reliability an
ated communicative processes, as the and causes dissonance, as it implies essential part of successful commu-
debate on corporate social responsi- not only a change in attitude alone nication – especially when the mes-
bility has clearly shown.4 Certainly, but also a change in behaviour. sage is not easy to convey. And in the
there are indeed corporations using context of the SDGs it’s not always
greenwashing and their self-descrip- a story of synergies, technological
tion in promoting the SDGs as part of 2. CONVEYING and social innovation which bene-
their branding strategies – but there “AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH” 5 fits everybody and opportunities for
are also organizations trying to pro- present and future generations but
mote responsible growth – even if it So, whom can we trust on these mat- also one of rising costs, redistribution
is costly. ters? The overflow of information – and loss of welfare (at least accord-
and indeed we can find almost any ing to the traditional operationaliza-
4
Visser, W. (2014). CSR 2.0: Transforming piece of information on anything and tions of welfare) for the so-called first
Corporate Sustainability and Responsibility. its opposite out there –, the rise of the world,7 and the need for a change
Heidelberg/New York/Dordrecht/London:
Springer.
Crane, A. & Matten, D. (2016). Business 5
An Inconvenient Truth is a 2006 American 6
www.edelman.com/trust-barometer
Ethics: Managing Corporate Citizenship and Academy Award-winning documentary
Sustainability in the Age of Globalization. directed by Davis Guggenheim about 7
The Eurostat Report e.g. clearly shows that
Oxford: Oxford University Press. former United States Vice President Al Gore’s there is a tendency for mere economic growth
Diehl, S., Karmasin, M., Mueller, B., Terlutter, R., campaign to educate people about global to endanger the achievement of various SDGs
& Weder, F. (eds.) (2017). Handbook of Inte- warming, which has become a reference (especially in the context of the environment).
grated CSR Communication. Heidelberg/ project for communicating sustainable ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/3217494/
New York/Dordrecht/London: Springer. development. 9940483/KS-02-19-165-EN-N.pdf
ÖAW 12MATTHIAS KARMASIN
of lifestyle (consumption, mobility But this is not only a dystopian view access to information more equally;
behaviour), a story of restraint, mod- of mediatization movements like goal no. 12, responsible production
esty and responsibility and challeng- Fridays for Future and initiatives and consumption, might also include
ing the concept of the nation state, addressing the responsibility of sci- responsible production and con-
as in many cases the SDGs require entists as scientists for the future; sumption of media, and goal no. 16,
global efforts. SDGs’ grassroots initiatives all peace, justice and strong institutions,
This also makes it clear that commu- around the globe, organized beyond might also include a strong and inde-
nicating the SDGs is communication the scope of legacy media, show that. pendent fourth estate but only entail
in a disputed arena of conflicting stretching the limits of interpretation
interests and tradeoffs. a little and not displaying it promi-
How comforting it is when we can 3. COMMUNICATING THE SDGS nently.9
leave things as they are – as we can IN A MEDIATIZED WORLD But the standard reaction of “more
always find a piece of information communication” is not the answer;
calling even scientific evidence into Summarizing, we wish to highlight it is about the right communication
question and telling us that the two aspects in the context of com- as the second aspect. The European
empirical evidence (especially in the municating the SDGs in a mediatized Sustainable Development Network
context of climate change) cannot be world: when it comes to realizing addressed the issue of communi-
trusted. Not to forget that the spread- the SDGs, it seems obvious that the cation in its latest quarterly report
ing of misinformation and the pro- first aspect is that communication is published recently, Communicat-
duction of doubt is also a prominent essential – on the macro, mezzo and ing Sustainable Development and the
lobbying strategy in framing scien- micro levels – yet this aspect seems SDGs in Europe: “Knowledge alone
tific evidence – because when there to be underrated in the SDGs. Goal does not motivate action. Commu-
is doubt, nothing has to be done, or no. 4 might also mean media liter- nication needs to take into account
changed.8 acy, as part of quality education; goal everyday concerns of people and
no. 10 might also include bridging decision-makers, encourage social
the digital divide and distributing norms and identities that promote
The book Merchants of Doubt by Naomi desired actions, increase perceptions
8
Oreskes and Erik M. Conway (Oreskes, N. &
of response-efficacy, and move from
Conway E. (2010). Merchants of Doubt: How to impact science and scientific evidence.
a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth Environmental Research Letters 9. 021001.
on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Dunlap, R., McCright, A. & Yarosh, J. (2016).
Warming. London/New York: Bloomsbury) The Political Divide on Climate Change: 9
Communication briefs are underway but only
and the research of Riley E. Dunlap e.g. on Partisan Polarization Widens in the U.S. on the level of processes, not goals:
the climate denial movement reconstruct In: Environment Science and Policy for www.sd-network.eu/pdf/policy_briefs/
this strategy. Dunlap, R. (2014). Clarifying Sustainable Development. Volume 58, Issue 5, 16th%20ESDN%20Workshop%20Policy%20
anti-reflexivity: conservative opposition (p. 4–23). 10.1080/00139157.2016.1208995. Brief_Final.pdf
ÖAW 13MATTHIAS KARMASIN
communications of sustainability to as McCright/Dunlap (2017) point ency, autonomy and accountability, in
promoting communication about sus- out.11 Misinformation, they argue, is order to counter a loss of trust in and
tainability.”10 This is a challenge not not always a systemic lie, but also a decline in the perceived trustwor-
only for policy-makers and admin- bullshit (in the sense of Harry Frank- thiness of science and research. “They
istrators (at least if they intend to furt’s only caring about the effect12) need to convincingly prove that a free
contribute to the life of future gener- and a misinterpretation of certain and just society means a society in
ations), but also for scientific commu- scientific theories by claiming that which all people are equal but not all
nities, as the question of factfulness is all statements are equally valid and expressions are equally true.”13
the starting point and it is disputed accepted “facts” are the outcomes of In terms of communication stud-
what the scientific evidence behind power and epistemic procedures. ies, communicating the SDGs thus
the SDGs is and whether scientists Countering misinformation and tak- requires a combination of science
can be trusted at all; this is exactly ing a stand for scientific evidence is communication (addressing the fact
what the spreading of misinforma- one of the first and most prominent that it is true) and strategic commu-
tion intends, and it has many forms, tasks in communicating the SDGs nication (addressing that it might
– especially for scientific communi- be inconvenient but still necessary
ties. The All European Academies and responsible to act) not only via
10
www.sd-network.eu/quarterly%20reports/
report%20files/pdf/2019-January- organization ALLEA has published established channels of legacy media
Communicating_Sustainable_Development_ a discussion paper entitled Trust and political institutions, not only
and_the_SDGs_in_Europe.pdf in Science in Changing Landscapes of via lobbying and convincing CEOs,
This is also argued by many scholars in the
Communication and this paper con- but also via engagement with civil
field, such as Cox, J. R. (2012). Environmental
Communication and the Public Sphere (3nd cludes: it is a crucial task for research- society and via social media, gamifi-
ed.). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications. ers and communicators of research to cation14 and direct interaction and by
Fischer, D., Lüdecke, G., Godemann, J., safeguard and reinforce the pillars of fostering media literacy and media
Michelsen, G., Newig, J., Rieckmann, M., &
trust, which are integrity, transpar- accountability.
Schulz, D. (2016). Sustainability Commu-
nication. In Heinrichs, H., Martens, P., But this challenge is not limited to
Michelsen, G., & Wiek, A. (Eds.). Sustainability 11
McCright, A. & Dunlap, R. (2017). Combatting
media and communication studies; it
Science: An Introduction (pp. 139–148). Misinformation Requires Recognizing Its
Dordrecht: Springer. Types and the Factors That Facilitate Its
Anderson, A. (2014). Media, Environment and Spread and Resonance. In: Journal of Applied 13
www.allea.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/
the Network Society. Houndmills: Palgrave Research in Memory and Cognition. Volume 6, 01/ALLEA_Trust_in_Science_and_Changing_
Macmillan. Issue 4, (pp. 389–396). Landscapes_of_Communication-1.pdf
Godemann, J. & Michelsen, G. (eds.) (2011).
Sustainability Communication: Interdisci- 14
See e.g. www.digitalsustainability.com and
plinary Perspectives and Theoretical 12
Frankfurt, H.G. (2005): On Bullshit. Princeton, Bendor, R. (2018). Interactive Media for Sus-
Foundation. Dortrecht: Springer Science & New Jersey: Princeton University Press. tainability. Basingstoke: Palgrave.
Business Media.
ÖAW 14MATTHIAS KARMASIN
is a challenge for scientific communi- MATTHIAS KARMASIN
ties engaging with the SDGs globally,
and it is their responsibility to take Current Positions
up this challenge in changing land- – Director of the Institute for Comparative Media and Communication Studies of the
scapes of communication. Now. Austrian Academy of Sciences and the Alpen-Adria-University Klagenfurt
– Full Professor and Chair for Media and Communications Sciences at the University
of Klagenfurt
Expertise
– Media development, organizational communication, political communication,
communication theory, media ethics and media practice
Qualifications
1999 Habilitation for Media and Communication Sciences, Vienna University
1991–1996 Dr. rer. soc. oec., Business Administration and International Management,
Vienna University of Economics and Business Administration
1983–1992 Dr. phil., Communication Sciences, Political Sciences and Philosophy,
University of Vienna
1983–1990 Mag. rer. soc. oec., Business Administration, Vienna University of Economics
and Business Administration
Career
Since 2013 Director of the Institute for Comparative Media and Communication
Studies of the Austrian Academy of Sciences and the Alpen-Adria University
Klagenfurt
Since 2001 Full Professor and Chair for Media and Communications Sciences at the
University of Klagenfurt
2000–2001 Visiting Professor for Media Studies at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
(Institut für angewandte Kulturwissenschaft)
1999–2001 Professor (Tenure Track) at the Institute for Media and Communication
Studies of the TU Ilmenau (Technische Universität Ilmenau)
Please see www.oeaw.ac.at/cmc/the-institute/staff/matthias-karmasin for more information
about the author.
15NEBOJSA NAKICENOVIC
THE WORLD IN 2050 AND THE
SIX GRAND TRANSFORMATIONS
TOWARDS THE SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT GOALS *
NEBOJSA NAKICENOVIC
Humanity is at a crossroads. One principle reachable (TWI2050 2018), host of achievements from education,
possibility is the transformation especially with the global commu- food and health to better working
towards a sustainable future for all nity’s adoption of the 17 Sustain- and living conditions. A particularly
and the other fundamentally differ- able Development Goals (SDGs) of impressive development is the long-
ent alternative is the continued trans- the 2030 Agenda (UN 2015) and the term decline of war and violence, and
gression of planetary boundaries Paris Climate Agreement in 2015 yet more people die from suicide than
with affluence for a few while bil- (UNFCCC 2015). This could be the from war and violence combined.
lions are left behind (TWI2050 2018). third revolution in human develop- Thus, the impressive achievements
In other words, this would mean con- ment, comparable in significance and are interlaced with inequities, deep
tinuing current, unsustainable devel- fundamental changes with those that inequalities and numerous concern-
opment patterns. occurred during the Neolithic Revo- ing developments. Today, almost a
A transformation towards an equi- lution initiated some 10,000 years ago billion people go hungry every night
table and just future for all is in and the Industrial Revolution some and the number is increasing while
two centuries ago, with truly explo- nearly two billion are overweight. So,
sive developments. For example, life on average enough food is produced
* This manuscript is based on two reports by
expectancy throughout the world but this great human achievement
the initiative “The World in 2050” (TWI2050)
(2018, 2019) and a lecture on this topic at the doubled during the last century to is not shared by all. There are more
Austrian Academy of Sciences in April 2019. over 70 years. This is due to a whole telephones in the world than people,
ÖAW 17NEBOJSA NAKICENOVIC
meaning that in theory everyone has
access to one, and this is close to the
factual reality, but one billion do not
have electricity at home to charge
their phone. Human advances are
ever increasing but are not shared
equally. Disparities remain large and
pervasive throughout the world and
even across generations, as illus-
trated in Figure 1.
NEOLITHIC AND INDUSTRIAL
REVOLUTIONS
Early humans lived as hunters and
gatherers but this all changed with
the two major transformations – the
Neolithic and Industrial Revolu-
tions. They were possible because
the Earth’s support systems were Fig. 1: Great Gatsby Curve. The horizontal axis shows the Gini Coefficient as an indicator
kind to humanity. Figure 2 shows of inequality; a value of 0 would indicate perfect equality, a value of 1 the very opposite.
the climate during the last 120,000 The vertical axis shows the elasticity of children’s income compared to that of their
years. Time before the present is parents. Countries in the lower left-hand corner are more equitable while those with high
represented on the horizontal scale inequalities also tend to display the same situation across generations, namely the income
and average global temperature on of children is a function of parents’ affluence. A particularly striking aspect is that some of
the vertical. Some 120,000 years ago, those countries are moving toward the right. Source: Corak (2013).
the last interglacial period came to
an end and was followed by a con- logical scales and then something sapiens developed agriculture and
tinued cooling accompanied by sig- unique happened: the period of the settled down and the first civiliza-
nificant variability. This ended with last ten thousand years, known as tions emerged. This development
the last ice age some 20,000 years the Holocene, brought very stable period is called the Neolithic Revo-
ago. Thereafter, the Earth warmed and warm temperatures, almost lution and was the “cradle” of mod-
very, very rapidly in terms of geo- 8 °C above the Ice Age lows. Homo ern civilizations.
ÖAW 18NEBOJSA NAKICENOVIC
During the Neolithic Revolution, the
global population increased 100-fold
to about one billion by the onset of the
Industrial Revolution. The relatively
benign changes in the global mean tem-
perature are shown in Figure 3. Also,
shown compared to this historical back-
drop are future possibilities assessed
by the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change in its Fifth Assessment
Report (IPCC 2014) based on the sce-
narios in the literature (Nakicenovic Fig. 2: Shown is the mean global tempe-
rature of the Earth during the last 100
thousand years. Time before the present
is represented on the horizontal scale and
the temperature on the vertical scale. 120
thousand years ago, the last interglacial
period was over and was followed by a con-
tinued cooling accompanied by significant
variability. This ended with the last ice age
some 20,000 years ago during the period
known as the Holocene. The Earth warmed
very rapidly in terms of geological scales
and thereafter there ensued a stable period
with less variability. Source: data from Pe-
tit et al. (1999), labeled as in Young and
Steffen (2009).
Fig. 3: Shown are the global mean temperatures during the last 20 thousand years together
with the range agreed during the Paris Conference of the Parties to the Climate Convention of
below 2 °C and down to 1.5 °C if possible. Also shown are possible tipping points of the Earth
system as a function of the increasing temperatures together with pathways developed for the
IPCC by the scientific communities. Source: adapted from Schellnhuber et al. (2016).
ÖAW 19NEBOJSA NAKICENOVIC
higher the danger. In particular, the
West Antarctic Ice Sheet, Greenland,
the Arctic summer sea ice, Alpine
glaciers and coral reefs are already
endangered because the global mean
temperature has exceeded 1 °C above
the pre-industrial levels.
Two important findings are that even
climate stabilization between 2 °C
and 1.5 °C would be associated with
tipping points and irreversibilities in
the Earth’s systems. The Holocene
stability is threatened in the Anthro-
pocene, the new era in Earth history
with one species, Homo sapiens, to a
large extent determining the future of
the planet.
Fig. 4: The 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the 2030 Agenda adopted by all
nations during the 2015 United Nations General Assembly. They represent an aspirational SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
vision and a transformational agenda for a sustainable future for all. The 2030 Agenda GOALS
represents a holistic agenda in the sense that all 17 SDGs need to be achieved simultaneously
without leaving a single one behind. The relationships among the SDGs have been studied The world is at a crossroads because
extensively, including trade-offs and synergies. Source: UN DESA (2015). current development trends are
endangering Earth systems on which
humanity depends while inequities
et al. 2000, IPCC 2014, Riahi et al. 2017, ties to the Climate Convention in order and inequalities are increasing, with
van Vuuren et al. 2017). Only what is to stabilize the global mean tempera- the effect that billions with the least
known as the RCP2.6 pathway, which ture below 2°C and if possible down to capability to adapt and mitigate the
stabilizes global mean temperature at 1.5 °C (UNFCCC 2015). adverse developments are left behind.
below 2°C (corresponding to radiative Also shown are possible tipping In this sense, the 2030 Agenda and
forcing of 2.6 W/m2, thus the name), points of the Earth systems, repre- its 17 SDGs adopted by all nations of
is consistent with the range agreed in sented by “amber” colors, much like the world in 2015 (UN 2015) are an
2015 at the Paris Conference of the Par- a thermometer that gets redder the aspirational vision of how to achieve
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sustainability for all and avoid the
continuation of the current unsus-
tainable direction of development. The
SDGs are shown in Figure 4 and repre-
sent a holistic agenda in the sense that
all 17 SDGs need to be achieved simul-
taneously without leaving a single one
behind. The relationships among the
SDGs have been studied extensively,
including trade-offs and synergies (e.g.,
TWI2050 2018, 2019, Miola 2018).
A good example of synergies is that
if energy systems are transformed
towards decarbonization (SDG7),
there would be multiple benefits for
the climate (SDG13), as shown in Fig-
ure 5 (McCollum et al. 2013). Improv-
ing energy security is an important
priority worldwide and eliminating
indoor and regional air pollution is
essential for human health and the
environment. Together, the average
costs are estimated at some $700 Fig. 5: The vertical axis shows the current global economic output of some hundred trillion
billion per year, stabilizing climate dollars per year (in terms of purchasing power parities). On the horizontal axis are three
change on average by about $1 tril- important objectives of sustainable energy futures: the first improvement of security with an
lion per year. Analysis with inte- average value of about 0.2 percent or two hundred billion per year; next is the elimination of
grated assessment models indicates air pollutants with an average of some five hundred billion dollars and finally the mitigation
that the total average costs would be of climate change to below 2 °C with an average of about one trillion dollars per year. The costs
about 40% lower if all three impor- would be about forty percent lower if these three objectives of sustainable energy futures were
tant objectives for sustainable devel- pursued simultaneously with integrated policies and in a holistic manner. Source: adapted from
opment were implemented in unison McCollum et al. (2013) and IPCC (2014).
and holistically. This finding has
been corroborated in the IPCC Fifth
Assessment Report (IPCC 2014).
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Fig. 6: The nature of the interactions between SDG 7 (Energy) and the non-energy SDGs. Licensed under CC-BY 3.0 by McCollum et al.
(2018). The relationships may be either positive (left panel) or negative (right panel) to differing degrees. See Nilsson et al. (2016) for
definitions pertaining to the 7-point scale, each score ranging from +3 (positive) to -3 (negative) in integer increments. The absence of a
colored wedge in either the left or right panels indicates a lack of positive or negative interactions respectively; if wedges are absent in both
panels for a given SDG, this indicates a score of 0 (‘consistent’). Only one positive or negative score is shown per SDG; in instances where
multiple interactions are present at the underlying target level (positive and negative treated separately), the individual score with the
greatest magnitude is shown. Note that, while not illustrated by this figure, some SDG linkages may involve more than simple two-way
interactions (e.g. the energy–water–land “nexus”). No scoring is done for the “means of implementation” SDG 17. Source: adapted from
McCollum et al. (2018).
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to produce food (SDG2) or biomass
for energy purposes (SDG7). There
are other potential but less intensive
conflicts and trade-offs with water
systems (SDG6), poverty (SDG1),
health (SDG3) and so on. What is sig-
nificant is that the synergies shown
in the left-hand panel of Figure 6 far
outweigh all trade-offs and conflicts
both in significance and in relation to
the number of other SDGs.
Providing the integrated scientific
basis for identifying synergies among
the SDGs was the main objective of The
World in 2050 (TWI2050) initiative. It
is a global research initiative support-
Fig. 7: Illustration of The World in 2050 conceptual framework. The legitimacy of business- ing successful implementation of the
as-usual (BAU) is eroding because major actors of change see a need for a fundamental 2030 Agenda and its 17 SDGs. Its goal
transformation toward achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as a is to provide fact-based knowledge to
vision for humanity’s future. The vertical axis shows the degree of transformation. Initially, support the policy process on the 2030
most of the changes would be incremental, but even for the achievement of the SDGs by Agenda. TWI2050 aims to address
2030, disruptive and radical change might be needed. In the longer term, the radicality of the full spectrum of transformational
these changes would be superseded by the emergence of transformational, new systems, but challenges related to achieving the 17
also new behaviors, values and norms. Source: TWI2050 (2018, 2019). SDGs in an integrated manner so as
to minimize potential conflicts among
them. One of the main work streams
This and other results in the scientific on a seven-point scale possible syn- of TWI2050 is to develop future sce-
literature (e.g. TWI2050, 2018, 2019) ergies and conflicts between SDG7 narios concerning the implementation
emphasize the need to achieve mul- on energy and the other 16 SDGs of the SDGs.
tiple benefits minimizing the costs (McCollum et al. 2018). For exam- Figure 7 schematically shows the
of implementing 2030 Agenda and ple, the right-hand panel in Figure 6 conceptual framework of TWI2050.
avoiding conflicts associated with shows that potential trade-offs and The transformation to achieve SDGs
trade-offs. There are many examples conflicts among SDGs do exist, espe- is needed because the legitimacy of
of multiple benefits. Figure 6 shows cially regarding possible land-use business-as-usual (BAU) is eroding.
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the changes would be incremental, but
even for the achievement of the SDGs
by 2030 disruptive and radical change
might be needed. In the longer term,
the radicality of these changes would
be superseded by the emergence of
transformational, new systems, but
also new behaviors, values and norms.
A major conclusion of TWI2050
(2018, 2019) is that a transformational
agenda is needed to achieve the 17
SDGs. Incremental change will be
not enough. Figure 7 illustrates how
such transformational and deep
change could be achieved. There
are a growing number of actors of
change from science and civil soci-
ety to the private sector and govern-
Fig. 8: TWI2050 focuses on Six Transformations that capture much of the global, regional, ment. They operate from the local to
and local dynamics and encompass major drivers of future changes: (i) Human capacity & the global level and will help make it
demography; (ii) Consumption & production; (iii) Decarbonization & energy; (iv) Food, clear to all that pervasive and urgent
biosphere & water; (v) Smart cities; and (vi) the Digital Revolution. The Six Transformations action is needed to implement the
reduce the complexity of 17 SDGs and their 169 Targets. Because they are interdependent and 2030 Agenda.
synergetic, achieving the Six Transformations would also lead to the 2030 Agenda becoming
a reality. Source: TWI2050 (2018, 2019).
SIX MAJOR TRANSFORMATIONS
The metaphor of the crossroads means SDGs would thereby become the new The 17 SDGs of the 2030 Agenda and
in this context that humanity would “social contract”. their 169 Targets are comprehensive
take a turn from business-as-usual The adoption of Agenda 2030 and its but thus also very complex. Given this
towards the vision of a sustainable 17 SDGs is in itself an indication that complexity, communicating how syn-
future for all. This implies the eventual the world must change. The vertical ergies leading to multiple benefits can
emergence of new values and norms, axis in Figure 7 illustrates the degree be achieved is non-trivial. TWI2050
a new morality and new ethics. The of transformation. Initially, most of (2018) identified Six Major Transfor-
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mations necessary to achieve the 17
SDGs. The Six Transformations help
realize synergies among the SDGs.
Shown in Figure 8, they are: (i)
Human capacity and demography;
(ii) Consumption and production;
(iii) Decarbonization and energy;
(iv) Food, biosphere and water; (v)
Smart cities; and (vi) the Digital
Revolution. Together, they provide
a people-centered perspective, ena-
bling the building of local, national,
and global societies and economies
that secure the wealth creation, pov-
erty reduction, fair distribution, and
inclusiveness necessary for human Fig. 9: About 80% of the global population over the age of 15 have at least primary education,
prosperity. They are necessary and up from just over 56% in 1970 and 43% in 1950. Three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP)
potentially sufficient for achieve- developed for the IPCC by the scientific communities are shown: SSP1 is an ambitious pathway
ment of the 17 SDGs if addressed and a proxy for sustainable development for all. SSP2 is the current-trends scenario. In SSP1
holistically and in unison (TWI2050 and SSP2, the historical trend continues toward almost universal primary education, but
2018, 2019). sustainable development for all calls for universal secondary education. SSP3 portrays little
All Six Major Transformations are improvement. Source: data from the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human
needed for achieving SDGs. Here we Capital (2018) and Lutz et al. (2018).
will focus on three exemplary illus-
trations only, but the full descrip-
tions and evidence are provided in human capacity and knowledge are for the IPCC by the scientific commu-
TWI2050 (2018, 2019). the key for achieving sustainability nities indicate future developments,
for all. One important measure is only some of which are consistent
education. Today, about 80% of the with the Six Major Transformations
HUMAN CAPACITY AND global population over the age of 15 (Riahi et al. 2017, van Vuuren et al.
EDUCATION have access to at least primary edu- 2017, TWI2050 2018). In particular,
cation, up from just over 56% in 1970 SSP1 is an ambitious pathway and a
The first exemplary case is educa- and 43% in 1950. The Shared Socio- proxy for sustainable development
tion (Figure 9). It is self-evident that economic Pathways (SSP) developed futures. SSP2 is the current-trends
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scenario and in many ways the future
that has to be avoided in the sense
of the crossroads. In SSP1 and SSP2,
the historical trend continues toward
almost universal primary education,
but sustainable development for all
calls for universal secondary edu-
cation. SSP3 displays little improve-
ment and is the least desirable future
development.
The share of the world’s population
over 15 years of age to have attained
at least secondary education has
doubled from some 30% to 60%. SSP1
portrays a significant acceleration,
reaching over 85% by mid-century.
In contrast, SSP3 portrays a deteri-
oration leading to higher birth rates
and a higher global population. Most
importantly, post-secondary attain-
ment increases in SSP1 and almost
stagnates in SSP3. Even in SSP1, the
mid-century level is just over 30%
and not very different from second- Fig. 10: Cumulative and annual emissions and sinks of CO2 are shown for stabilizing the
ary education attainment in 1970. global climate at below 2 °C and 1.5 °C. Energy-related and land-use emissions need to decline
This is a huge challenge for knowl- toward zero by mid-century. The figure is called “Carbon Law”, in allusion to Moore’s Law of
edge societies in times of digitali- semiconductors, which observed that the number of transistors on a chip doubles every 2.5 years.
zation. Achievement of sustainable Essentially, emissions need to be halved every decade. In addition, human carbon sinks need to
development for all would definitely increase to almost half the magnitude of current positive emissions. Thirdly, biosphere carbon
need higher educational attainment sinks need to be maintained as atmospheric concentrations decline. The vertical grey bars show
if no one is to be left behind (Lutz cumulative emissions since the beginning of the industrial revolution of some 2,000 billion
et al. 2018, TWI2050, 2018, 2019). tons of CO2. Net negative emissions are required to stay within the 1.5 °C stabilization budget.
Should the remaining budget for stabilizing at 2 °C be a little more generous, the demand for
net-negative emissions could be significantly reduced. Source: After Rockström et al. (2017).
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Most of the carbon emissions shown
in Figure 10 in grey are energy-re-
lated. Together with land-use emis-
sions, they need to decline toward
zero by mid-century from the current
level of some 40 billion tons of car-
bon dioxide (GtCO2) per year. Deep
decarbonization is called for as an
essential process for achieving the 17
SDGs and the Paris Agreement.
The illustration in Figure 10 is called
“Carbon Law”, in allusion to Moore’s
Law of semiconductors, which
observed that the number of transis-
Fig. 11: The rapid progress of information and telecommunication technologies is illustrated by tors on a chip doubles every 2.5 years
an enormous efficiency potential offered compared with traditional alternatives. A smartphone (Rockström et al. 2017). Carbon Law
requires between 2.2 Watts in standby mode to some 5 Watts in use, while the numerous devices indicates that global emissions need
portrayed in the figure that it replaces need up to a hundred times more power. There is about to be halved every decade to achieve
a factor 25 reduction of embedded energy required to produce the devices and a proportional net-zero by mid-century. In addition,
reduction in emissions. The bundling of services from various devices in the smartphone can be human carbon sinks need to increase
regarded as an example of the power of the Digital Revolution and its huge potential to increase to almost half the magnitude of
resource efficiencies through new technologies and behaviors. Source: Nuno Bento, based on current positive emissions a tall
data in Grubler et al., (2018) and visualization by Tupy (2012). order. Carbon capture from biomass
(BECCS), afforestation and land-use
change are the key here. Thirdly, bio-
DEEP DECARBONIZATION exceedingly limiting factors concern- sphere carbon sinks need to be main-
TOWARD NET-ZERO BY ing possible future emissions, given tained as atmospheric concentrations
MID-CENTURY that globally they are still increasing decline.
at historical rates of more than 2 per- The vertical grey bars in Figure 10
Another exemplary case considered cent per year. In comparison, stabiliz- show cumulative emissions since
here is the need for deep decar- ing the global climate at below 2 °C the beginning of the Industrial
bonization of all human activities. and down to 1.5 °C means immediate Revolution of some 2,000 GtCO2.
Cumulative and annual emissions emissions would peak and decline to This budget, or carbon endowment
and sinks of carbon dioxide (CO2) are net-zero emissions by mid-century. of humanity, will be exhausted
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shortly as the remaining emissions
for achieving stabilization at below
1.5 °C are essentially nil while we
still emit some 40 GtCO2 per year.
Net-negative emissions are needed to
stay within this budget. The remain-
ing budget for stabilizing at 2 °C is
a little more generous, so that the
demand for net-negative emissions
can be reduced. In all cases, the emis-
sion of other greenhouse gases such
as methane and nitrous oxides also
needs to be reduced to zero at an even
faster rate. Elimination of particulate
matter and aerosols is essential for Fig. 12: Future diffusion of exemplary and enabling digital infrastructures and technologies.
avoiding deadly impact on human By 2030, most of these networks, including the average of all (shown as blue dotted line), would
health and the environment, but this exceed 50% diffusion, or the inflection point, meaning that the increase until then would be
would add to global warming, as exponential. This illustrates the possibility of a very vigorous growth of digitalization in the
these radiatively active substances world along with the emergence of new activities and behaviors. The opportunities and potential
cool today. The Carbon Law can be dangers are high and related to all SDGs. Source: Saniee et al. (2017).
seen as a roadmap towards making
the Paris Agreement and the SDGs a
reality. In 2018, the IPCC confirmed DIGITAL REVOLUTION AND explosive development of humanity
this result in its Special Report on HOMO DIGITALIS and by replacing human labor with
1.5 °C (IPCC 2018) based on a com- machines also ended slavery and cre-
prehensive review of the scientific The third exemplary Major Transfor- ated wealth for many but left billions
literature. This all exemplifies the mation discussed here and perhaps behind. The Digital Revolution could
urgency of the immediate and deep the most challenging is the Digital “liberate” humanity from many
decarbonization of all human activi- Revolution. After the Neolithic and cognitive functions through digital
ties as an integral part of achieving a the Industrial Revolution it could enhancement, but it is also challeng-
sustainable future for all. indeed be the third in human history. ing the absorptive capacity of our
The Neolithic Revolution brought societies – it is by no means clear that
agriculture and early civilizations, it will foster social steering towards
the Industrial Revolution led to the sustainability for all.
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It could be said that the digital age The possible rapid progress of digital cerns and present risks of social
began some three decades ago with technologies shown in Figure 12 could control by governments and/or
the introduction of the mobile (cel- be an indication of the path-breaking large multinational firms. Also,
lular) phone. The first GSM phone potential of next-generation digital the fundamental nature of net-
was the Motorola 3200, introduced technologies, the clustering in new work externalities (benefits grow
in 1992, and what followed was an activities and associated behaviors. exponentially with the degree of
explosive diffusion. As mentioned TWI2050 (2019) report summarizes interconnectedness and informa-
previously, there are more phones in the positive impacts of digitalization tion sharing) almost automatically
the world than people. The change on the SDGs as follows: “better and lead to natural monopolies.
was disruptive in the sense that the lower cost services improve access 3. Cost reductions in services could
“copper wire” phones were abruptly and affordability and hence contrib- lead to ‘take-back’ (or economic
replaced, especially as smart phones ute toward reduction of poverty and ‘rebound’) effects in which cost
started providing many services inequality. Better asset utilization and savings lead to further increases in
from banking and access to inter- virtualization increase resource effi- the same or substitute demands.
net-related information, replacing ciency and can reduce the resource For example, cost reductions from
many other digital and analogue and ecological footprint of human shared mobility models for urban
devices. Figure 11 compares some activities, thus positively contributing commuting to work could lead to
50 or so devices that used to pro- to a range of SDGs”. increased demands for (long-dis-
vide services now offered by smart tance) recreational travel trips on
phones. The efficiency improve- Potential negative effects are grouped weekends and during holidays.
ment of smart phones compared in TWI2050 (2019) into four clusters: 4. Negative impacts on employment:
to the traditional devices it poten- 1. Lack of access to digital infrastruc- better asset utilization in a sharing
tially replaces is hundred-fold and ture and services compounds the economy and increasing virtual-
the reduction of embedded energy negative impacts of the digital ization, despite reducing resource
and emissions needed for produc- divide, potentially opening up use and waste, will impact manu-
tion is about 25-fold. This is a good a digital consumption divide. facturing through lower demand
example of the huge efficiency For example, someone who does for devices, vehicles, and physi-
improvement along with enormous not own a smartphone could cal goods, and hence negatively
technological improvement leading no longer use public transport impact employment. Moreover,
to better and cheaper services. At options organized under a perva- increasing digitalization of ser-
the same time, the co-evolution of sive shared mobility model. vice provision, such as autono-
people, technology and institutions 2. Big data applications centred mous vehicles in public transport
has led to new forms of behavior on private consumption and fleets, reduces the need for human
and lifestyles. services raise data privacy con- labour, again negatively impacting
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employment. Concerns are also
voiced that continued digitaliza-
tion in manufacturing could ren-
der the traditional comparative
advantage of emerging economies
in manufacturing (lower labour
costs) increasingly obsolete. This
could lead to a relocation of indus-
trial and manufacturing activities
back to industrialized countries,
or it could create an additional
entry barrier for resource-based
economies that currently benefit
from the international division of
labour in their efforts to industri-
alize.
Figure 13 offers an additional per-
spective of the digitalization chal-
lenges in the short and long term. Fig. 13: Major ethical challenges of artificial intelligence (AI) in the short and long term. A
It focuses on artificial intelligence, major concern among others is the possibility of structural unemployment or proliferation of
but the wider convergence of digi- autonomous weapons as the result of AI diffusion along with other digital systems. Another
tal technologies would involve deep example is that the legal status of autonomous systems such as self-navigating cars or aircraft is
learning, big data, additive manufac- largely unclear. In the long run, issues are even more challenging, such as the status of humans
turing, robotics and blockchains, to in a world dominated by artificial agents or the possibility of emerging consciousness in AI.
mention just a few. In the short term, Source: x/Futurology (i.imgur.com/13CNnD1.png).
structural unemployment is perhaps
the biggest challenge. However, all analytic and cognitive characteristics. In the long term, challenges become
are relevant. For example, the pro- The manufacture of ‘home-made’ even more pronounced, ranging from
liferation of autonomous weapons weapons with additive (3d) manu- the question of human enhancement
is a huge danger for the world, as it facturing is already a deplorable real- to the status of humanity in a world
would expand the portfolio of pos- ity. Suffice it to also mention here the dominated by artificial agents and
sibilities from cruise missiles and legal challenges of autonomous sys- how to create friendly superintelli-
drones to weapons with enhanced tems such as self-driving cars. gence in machines. Finally, perhaps
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