African Markets Revealed - September 2017 - Stanbic IBTC
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African Markets Revealed
September 2017
Penny Byrne
Walter de Wet
Michael Kafe
Phumelele Mbiyo
Ayomide Mejabi
Fausio Mussa
Jibran Qureishi
Dmitry Shishkin
www.standardbank.com/researchStandard Bank African Markets Revealed
September 2017
Durant Basi Sihlali (1935-2004): Rhini Walls No 12
Durant Sihlali was born on the 5th of March 1935 in Germiston on the outskirts of Johannesburg,
South Africa. As a young child he spent time with his grandparents in rural Eastern Cape where he
was exposed to traditional Xhosa wall murals. Durant returned to Johannesburg and trained in
Chiawelo under Alphius Kubeka from 1950-1953. Later he emerged as a professional artist from
the famous Polly Street Academy, having worked alongside famous artists such as Carlo Sdoya,
Sydney Goldblatt, Ephraim Ngatane, Louis Maqhubela and Cecil Skotness. From 1983 to 1988 he
was head of Fine Art at the Federated Union of Black Artists (FUBA).
In 1982 Sihlai was introduced to papermaking and worked in this medium for the latter part of his
career. From this time on his work became more abstract and included themes of graffiti and the
wall designs he had been exposed to as a child.
Source: Standard Bank Corporate Art CollectionStandard Bank African Markets Revealed
September 2017
Contents
4 African markets: Mind the BOP
27 Angola: likely lower growth for longer
33 Botswana: moderate growth
39 Côte d’Ivoire: markets underestimating political risks
45 DRC: mining rebounds despite politics
51 Egypt: looking up
57 Ethiopia: recovery underway after the drought
63 Ghana: managing IMF conditionality
69 Kenya: back to the ballot as new elections are called
75 Malawi: cautiously optimistic
81 Mauritius: still plodding along
87 Morocco: the road to recovery
93 Mozambique: uncertainty dominates
99 Namibia: rebound ahead
105 Nigeria: benefitting from improved oil revenues
111 Rwanda: receding investment spending slows growth
117 Senegal: relatively stable political situation
123 South Africa: growth is far too low
129 Tanzania: enthusiasm ebbing
135 Tunisia: a long and winding road
141 Uganda: growth looks more promising
147 Zambia: growth ever looking up
153 Glossary
This material is "non-independent research". Non-independent research is a
"marketing communication" as defined in the UK FCA Handbook. It has not been
prepared in accordance with the full legal requirements designed to promote
independence of research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of
the dissemination of investment research.Standard Bank African Markets Revealed
September 2017
Uganda
Uganda: growth looks more promising
GDP growth: recovering GDP by expenditure
12.0
We upgrade our GDP growth forecast for 2017 to 4.5% y/y,
10.0
from 4.2% y/y. Following a tight monetary policy stance in
2015, private sector credit (PSC) growth fell sharply, declining to 8.0
1.6% y/y in Aug 16, from a 2015 high of 25.3% y/y in Sep 16. 6.0
PSC growth has since then recovered to an average of 5.9% y/y 4.0
%
in H1:17, aided by the looser monetary policy stance by the BOU 2.0
since Apr-16.
0.0
-2.0
GDP growth expanded by 3.9% y/y in Q1:17, from 2.0% y/y in
Q4:16, mainly due to a strong performance from the services -4.0
sector which expanded by 6.0% y/y from 3.3% y/y during the -6.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017f 2018f
same period. Interestingly, the accommodation and food sub-
sector (tourism) grew by an impressive 16.3% y/y in Q1:17, PCE GCE GFCF
which was the strongest reading since it registered 20.6% y/y Stocks Netex GDP
growth in Q3:11. The tourism sector in Uganda is
underperforming relative to its potential, and reforms to boost Source: Uganda Bureau of Statistics; Standard Bank Research
output from tourism are likely to be one of the key priorities of
the government over the medium term due to the potential GDP by sector (%) contribution
multiplier effects. In addition to increased global marketing of 2008 2010 2014 2016
Agriculture, forestry & fishing 27.1 25.2 22.5 21.1
Uganda’s tourism services, the country has capitalized on Mining & quarrying 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.5
neighbouring Rwanda’s recent decision to hike permit fees for Manufacturing 8.7 5.6 7.8 7.9
Construction 5.5 5.6 6.5 6.6
mountain-gorilla trekking. Trade & repairs 13.3 12.9 11.6 11
Transport & storage 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.8
Accommodation & food service 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.4
It is evident that poor weather conditions weighed down on Information & communication 4.2 6.3 8.3 9.2
agricultural output in H1:17, a theme consistent across the East Financial & insurance 2.4 2.4 2.8 2.8
Africa region. However, it is also important to highlight that Real estate activities 5.5 5.2 5.3 5.5
Public administration 2.8 3.1 3 3.3
growth in the agricultural sub-sector contracted by an average of Education 5.3 5.0 5.4 5.7
1.0% y/y in the 9-m to Sep 16, even before the short rains, Source: Uganda Bureau of Statistics
which were depressed, commenced in Q4:16. These
developments are perhaps a cue for the government to intensify
reforms in the agricultural sector in order to foster sustainable
economic growth.
Moreover, following the long rains season between Mar and May,
the agricultural sector could recover somewhat in H2:17;
however, the invasion of armyworms could still lead to a relatively
weaker food crop in Q4:17. Stanbic Bank PMI
58.0
Also, with public investment in infrastructure spend likely to
increase meaningfully over the next couple of years, GFCF is 56.0
likely to rise. The government of Uganda has finally agreed on
the construction terms of the oil pipeline from Tanga, Tanzania, 54.0
which is thus likely to encourage energy firms to make a final
investment decision by Q1:18. 52.0
50.0
Better weather conditions, increased public investment in
infrastructure and improving PSC should underpin economic 48.0
activity, and thus we see GDP growth expanding by 5.6% y/y in
2018. 46.0
Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17
PMI
Source: IHS Markit
141Standard Bank African Markets Revealed
September 2017
Quarterly indicators
Uganda
Q1:16 Q2:16 Q3:16 Q4:16 Q1:17 Q2:17e Q3:17f Q4:17f Q1:18f Q2:18f Q3:18f Q4:18f
5.4
GDP (% y/y) pa 4.1 2.9 1.2 2.0 3.9 4.2 4.5 5.2 5.4 5.7 5.5 5.9
4.2
CPI (% y/y) pe 6.2 5.9 4.2 5.7 6.4 6.5 5.0 4.0 4.2 3.1 4.8 5.0
15.1
M3 (% y/y) pe 10.9 7.1 3.3 11.1 12.6 13.6 14.0 14.4 15.1 15.5 16.3 18.2
3.4
FX reserves (USD bn) pe 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.8
4.9
Import cover (months) pe 5.5 5.6 5.3 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.2 4.9 4.9 5.1 5.1 5.2
10.1
3-m rate (%) pe 16.6 15.2 14.2 14.0 10.7 10.4 9.5 9.8 10.1 10.4 10.5 10.2
14.2
5-y rate (%) pe 16.9 16.5 16.3 16.9 15.7 15.0 13.7 14.0 14.2 14.5 14.7 14.9
3730
USD/UGX pe 3351 3360 3425 3596 3615 3602 3615 3680 3730 3780 3840 3900
Source: Bank of Uganda; Uganda Bureau of Statistics; Bloomberg; Standard Bank Research
Notes: pa – period average; pe – period end
Political risks: dropping term limits Election results (2016)
Presidential election Party % of votes
Yoweri Kaguta Museveni NRM 60.6
Uganda still plans to scrap the presidential age limit, which is Kizza Kifeefe Besigye FDC 35.6
currently 75 years, in spite of strong resistance from opposition Amama Mbabazi PDP 1.3
Abed Bwanika 0.9
groups as well as parts of the civil society. Legislative election Seats
National Resistance Movement (NRM) 293
Back in 2005, parliament amended the constitution to scrap the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) 36
Democratic Party (DP) 15
two-term limit for the presidency. Also, with the ruling party the Uganda People's Congress (UPC) 6
National Resistance Movement (NRM) still holding a significant Other 76
Total 426
majority in parliament, the likelihood of the presidential age Source: Electoral Commission of Uganda
limit being dropped is quite high. Under the current
constitution, President Museveni, 72, will be ineligible to run in
the 2021 general elections since he will be over 75 by then.
Interestingly, under the current constitutional dispensation, it is
clear that any amendment to the said constitution through an
act of parliament must be supported by a referendum. However,
in 2005, the above requirement was ignored.
From the foregoing, it is apparent that the incumbent is
progressively consolidating power. This may displease the
international community. Human right organisations, which have
criticised the government’s treatment of opposition politicians,
may interpret the scrapping of the age limit as a means to
further popular dissent.
That said, the United Nations (UN) has lauded Uganda’s open
door policy to refugees due to an influx of refugees from nearby
war-torn regions such as South Sudan and the Democratic
Republic of Congo (DRC).
142Standard Bank African Markets Revealed
September 2017
Balance of payments: increasing imports Current account developments
Uganda
2000
We retain our C/A deficit estimate for 2017 at 6.2% of GDP,
and increase our 2018 expectation to 7.5%. 1000
0
The C/A balance eased marginally to USD176.6m in Q1:17,
from USD184.4m in Q4:16, and an average of USD312m in -1000
USD m
H2:16. However, available data shows that the trade balance
-2000
widened to USD362.7m in Q2:17, from USD296.5m in the
previous quarter, largely due to a rise in total imports of goods -3000
and services which grew by 13.9% q/q.
-4000
Import demand mainly associated with capital expenditure is -5000
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018f
likely to increase over the coming years, and is thus likely to
widen the C/A deficit. On the other hand, household imports Trade Services Income
could also rise as PSC growth and economic activity gathers Transfers C/A
pace in FY2017/18.
Source: Bank of Uganda; Standard Bank Research
Despite, Uganda’s regional trading partners facing significant
political risks in 2017, exports grew by 11.1% q/q in Q2:17.
Notably, exports to Kenya, which is one of Uganda’s largest
trading partners in the COMESA, rose to USD137.0m in Q2:17, FX reserves (USD bn)
from USD57.3m in Q1:17. In fact, should political risk persist in
Kenya, Uganda’s exports would inevitably decline in H2:17. 3.55
3.45
Whereas foreign portfolio investment is likely to subside over
3.35
the coming year, we suspect that direct investment will probably
increase owing to the investment spending related to the oil 3.25
sector. Furthermore, improving tourism earnings should also 3.15
continue to support service exports. We therefore see FX
3.05
reserves rising to USD3.4bn (4.9 months of import cover) at the
end of 2017, and then USD3.8bn at the end of 2018. 2.95
2.85
2.75
2.65
Jan-15 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Sep-16 Feb-17
Source: Bank of Uganda
FX outlook: bias for a gradual weakness USD/UGX: forwards versus forecasts
4 300
We now expect the USD/UGX to trade within a range of 3680-
3700, from our previous expectation of 3800-3850. A slow
recovery in corporate USD demand, and a softer USD globally, 3 800
supported the UGX in H1:17. Furthermore, the value of coffee
exports also rose by 71.1% y/y as at Jun 17. That said, the 3 300
USD/UGX
easing of the BOU’s monetary policy stance is likely to stimulate
PSC growth and import demand in FY2017/18, and thus begin
2 800
to present upside risks to the USD/UGX. Additionally, while
portfolio investment is probably going to ease over the coming
year, this is likely to be counterbalanced by an increase in FDI 2 300
inflows, primarily in H2:18, once a final investment decision on
Uganda’s recoverable oil reserves has been made. Therefore, 1 800
even though we see improved economic activity driving the Aug-12 Dec-13 May-15 Sep-16 Feb-18
USD/UGX higher in 2018, the move is likely to be very gradual History Forwards Forecast
due to the availability of adequate financing for the C/A deficit.
Source: Bloomberg; Standard Bank Research
143Standard Bank African Markets Revealed
September 2017
Monetary policy: neutral, with an easing bias Inflation and interest rates
Uganda
We expect the MPC to maintain a neutral stance with an easing 60.0
bias over the coming year. Indeed, in view of waning inflation
50.0
expectations and subdued domestic demand, the MPC cut its
policy rate by a combined 200 bps in H1:17, which followed the 40.0
cumulative 400 bps cut in 2016. 30.0
%, y/y
20.0
In spite of severe drought conditions earlier in the year, the
MPC remained confident that movements in headline inflation 10.0
would remain within their preferred target range of 5%-7.5%. 0.0
Thus, against this backdrop, the committee continued with its
-10.0
expansionary monetary policy stance despite headline inflation
rising to 7.3% y/y in May 17, arguing that the growth outlook -20.0
Feb-06 May-08 Aug-10 Dec-12 Mar-15 Jul-17
at the time was deteriorating. Admittedly, due to relatively weak
economic activity, the BOU could afford to cut its key Headline Food Core
benchmark rate amidst rising food inflation in H1:17.
Source: Uganda Bureau of Statistics
We expect headline inflation to edge lower to around 4.0% y/y
by Dec 17, and, thereafter, supported by complementary base
effects and potentially better weather conditions, it could fall
further to below 4.0% y/y by Jun 18. Monetary statistics
50.00%
PSC growth has been recovering at a rather modest pace,
expanding by an average of 6.0% y/y in Q2:17, from 5.8% y/y 40.00%
in Q1:17. However, business sentiment surveys are already
providing early signals of a recovery in economic activity. For 30.00%
example, the Stanbic Bank Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
rose to 54.1 in Aug, from a low of 47.7 in Jan 17. 20.00%
At its meeting in Aug 17, the MPC opted to leave the CBR 10.00%
unchanged at 10%, and further highlighted that domestic
0.00%
demand was starting to recover. To this effect, their own GDP
growth estimate was revised upwards to 5.5% y/y for
-10.00%
FY2017/18, from 4.5% y/y previously. However, if the Jan-10 Nov-11 Sep-13 Jul-15 May-17
recovery in PSC growth remains underwhelming given the
M3 y/y PSC y/y
benign inflation outlook, the committee could still be tempted
to cut its policy rate further.
Source: Bank of Uganda
Yield curve outlook: near the bottom Changes in the yield curve
Indeed, the shift in the MPC’s stance to adopt a wait and see 20.0
approach, should limit a further decline in T-bill yields.
Nonetheless, despite the heavy appetite for government debt, 18.0
the BOU remains disciplined in only accepting bids worth what
they had initially advertised for. In the near term, the scope for 16.0
government bond yields to fall is probably higher in comparison
YTM(%)
to T-bills. However, as commercial banks begin to extend more 14.0
credit to the private sector over the next 6-m or so, the yield
12.0
curve is likely to start bear-flattening, with T-bills yields rising
much faster than bond yields. Further reinforcing this point is 10.0
the slightly higher domestic borrowing target of UGX954bn in
FY2017/18, up from UGX846bn. Also, despite the funding for 8.0
most large ticket infrastructure projects coming from offshore, 91-d 182-d 364-d 2-y 3-y 5-y 10-y
in the event that disbursements of funds is delayed, the 31-Jan-17 06-Sep-17 6-m forecast
government is likely to increase its appetite for domestic
borrowing. Source: Bank of Uganda; Standard Bank Research
144Standard Bank African Markets Revealed
September 2017
Fiscal policy: capex set to rise Central government budget
[IInsert countryUganda
here]
% of GDP FY2016/17 FY2017/18
The government’s planned fiscal deficit excluding grants is
Total revenue (- grants) 13.7 14.9
expected to increase to 7.2% of GDP in FY2017/18, from
4.6% in FY2016/17. Total expenditure 19.0 22.2
- Wages 3.8 3.5
Development expenditure is expected to rise to UGX11,349bn, - Interest 2.6 2.7
from UGX6,490bn, while planned recurrent expenditure also - Development expenditure 7.2 10.1
rises to UGX11,902bn, from UGX9,902bn. However, low Overall balance (- grants) -4.6 -7.2
absorption rates mainly on development spending resulted in
Overall balance (+ grants) -3.5 -5.6
the government only executing 71% of their development
Net domestic borrowing 0.9 1.0
budget. Interestingly, much of this shortfall manifested due to
delays in disbursement of concessional loans from multilateral Net external borrowing 2.6 4.6
partners that were withholding funds owing to the lethargic Donor support (grants) 1.1 1.6
execution of public investment projects. Source: Ministry of Finance
The FY2017/18 budget will be funded by higher domestic
borrowing of UGX954bn vs UGX846bn in FY 2016/17, and
higher external financing of UGX5,476bn vs UGX2,692bn. Net
external financing comprises concessional loans worth
UGX2,013bn and non-concessional loans of UGX3,463bn. In
fact, the significant rise in the commercial or non-concessional Fiscal deficit incl. grants (%) of GDP
loans component in the budget is an indication of the 0
government perhaps becoming more receptive to commercial
debt as funding pressures associated with the energy sector -1
build up amidst low national savings.
-2
Total tax revenue is seen rising to UGX14,686bn from
UGX12,882bn. Indeed, the growth in revenues seems quite -3
ambitious; however, bear in mind that the tax revenue outturn
-4
of UGX12,882bn for FY2016/17 was still 13.6% higher than
the previous fiscal year.
-5
Development projects such as the construction of the Standard -6
Gauge Railway, oil pipeline from Tanga as well as hydropower
projects such as Karuma are likely to keep expenditure elevated -7
over the medium term. FY10/11 FY12/13 FY14/15 FY16/17
Source: Ministry of Finance
Equity market outlook: positive Uganda Stock Exchange
395
The equity market is likely to perform better over the coming
year mainly due to relatively unattractive UGX fixed income 390
valuations. Additionally, the Uganda Securities Exchange (USE)
could begin to reap the benefits of an improving equity market 385
in Kenya owing to the cross-listing of eight companies. This is
380
likely to compliment already favourable fundamentals for the
equity market, especially in light of the lack of new listings and 375
thin trading volumes in most large counters.
370
Furthermore, Uganda’s improving growth prospects on the back
365
of higher investment spending in the energy sector is likely to
have multiplier effects on other parts of the economy, which 360
could continue to support the equity market. Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17
USE
Source: Bloomberg
145Standard Bank African Markets Revealed
September 2017
Annual indicators
Uganda
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017f 2018f
Output
Population (million) 35.40 36.57 37.78 38.50 41.08 42.31 43.58
Nominal GDP (UGX bn) 61 373 66 764 72 660 81 688 86 555 95 310 107 110
Nominal GDP (USD bn) 24.4 25.9 27.6 24.5 25.2 26.2 28.1
GDP / capita (USD) 690 707 731 636 614 620 645
Real GDP growth (%) 3.2 4.7 4.9 5.7 2.6 4.5 5.6
Coffee production ('000 tons) 195.2 209.8 216.5 221.8 226.5 229.7 235.9
Central Government Operations
Budget balance (excl. Grants) / GDP (%) -4.4 -4.9 -5.0 -5.4 -8.0 -4.6 -7.2
Budget balance (incl. Grants) / GDP (%) -2.5 -3.5 -4.0 -4.2 -6.6 -3.5 -5.6
Domestic debt / GDP (%) 10.5 12.0 13.0 13.1 13.0 13.5 13.9
External debt / GDP (%) 15.4 15.7 18.8 21.4 19.2 19.7 23.0
Balance Of Payments
Exports of goods and services (USD bn) 4.94 5.32 4.73 4.85 4.53 4.65 4.35
Imports of goods and services (USD bn) 7.74 7.75 7.81 7.65 6.52 6.95 7.65
Trade balance (USD m) -2.80 -2.43 -3.08 -2.80 -1.99 -2.30 -3.30
Current account (USD m) -1.66 -1.79 -2.38 -1.86 -1.20 -1.60 -2.10
- % of GDP -6.8 -6.9 -8.6 -7.6 -4.8 -6.2 -7.5
Financial account (USD m) 0.71 0.78 5.92 2.38 3.24 2.87 2.90
- FDI (USD m) 1.15 1.14 1.03 0.53 0.68 0.80 1.43
Basic balance / GDP (%) -2.1 -2.5 -4.9 -5.4 -2.1 -3.0 -2.4
FX reserves (USD m) pe 3.0 3.1 3.2 2.8 3.0 3.4 3.8
- Import cover (months) pe 4.8 4.8 5.5 5.5 5.2 4.9 5.2
Sovereign Credit Rating
S&P nr nr B B B B B
Moody’s nr B1 B1 B2 B2 B2 B2
Fitch B B B B B B B
Monetary & Financial Indicators
Consumer inflation (%) pa 14.6 5.5 4.3 5.8 5.5 5.5 4.3
Consumer inflation (%) pe 5.3 6.7 1.8 8.7 5.7 4.0 5.0
M3 money supply (% y/y) pa 7.5 11.0 16.9 13.9 8.2 13.7 16.3
M3 money supply (% y/y) pe 14.9 6.0 17.1 11.7 11.1 14.4 18.2
BOU policy interest rate (%) pa 18.0 11.7 11.2 14.0 14.9 10.6 9.9
BOU policy interest rate (%) pe 12.0 11.5 11.0 17.0 12.0 10.0 9.0
3-m rate (%) pe 9.94 9.79 11.82 19.50 14.0 9.8 10.2
1-y rate (%) pe 10.28 12.75 13.92 22.30 15.9 11.5 12.7
2-y rate (%) pe 10.75 13.35 14.32 20.10 16.7 12.8 13.4
5-y rate (%) pe 12.20 14.75 14.39 22.30 16.9 14.0 14.9
USD/UGX pa 2 513 2582 2636 3334 3433 3628 3812
USD/UGX pe 2678 2523 2766 3 381 3596 3680 3900
Source: Bank of Uganda; Uganda Bureau of Statistics; Ministry of Finance; ; Bloomberg; Standard Bank Research
Notes: pa – period average; pe – period end; nr – not rated
146Standard Bank African Markets Revealed
September 2017
Glossary
For brevity, we frequently use acronyms that refer to specific institutions or economic concepts. For reference, below we spell out
these and provide definitions of some economic concepts that they represent.
14-d 14-day, as in 14-d deposit, which denotes 14 day deposit
10-y 10-year
16 Jan 13 16 January 2013
3-m 3 months
3m 3 million, as in USD3m, which denotes 3 million US dollars
3bn 3 billion, as in UGX3bn, which denotes 3 billion Ugandan shillings
3tr 3 trillion, as in TZS3.0tr, which denotes 3 trillion Tanzanian shillings
AOA Angola Kwanza
BAM Bank Al Maghrib
BCC Banque Central du Congo (Central Bank of Congo)
BCEAO Banque Central des États de L’Afrique de l’Ouest (Central Bank of West African States)
BCT Banque Central de Tunisie
BM Banco de Moçambique
BNA Banco Nacional de Angola
BOB Bank of Botswana
BOG Bank of Ghana
BOM Bank of Mauritius
BON Bank of Namibia
Balance of payments – a summary position of a country’s financial transactions with the rest of the world. It
BOP
encompasses all international transactions in goods, services, income, transfers, financial claims and liabilities.
BOT Bank of Tanzania
BOU Bank of Uganda
BOZ Bank of Zambia
BR Bank Rate (Reserve Bank of Malawi)
153Standard Bank African Markets Revealed
September 2017
BRVM Bourse Régionale des Valeurs Mobilières (Regional Securities Exchange)
BWP Botswana Pula
Current account balance. This is the sum of the visible trade balance and the net invisible balance of a
C/A
country. The latter includes net service, income and transfer payments.
Captures the net change in investment and asset ownership for a nation by netting out a country’s inflow and
Capital account
outflow of public and private international investment.
CBE Central Bank of Egypt
CBK Central Bank of Kenya
CBR Central Bank Rate
CDF Congolese Franc
Consumer Price Index – An index that captures the average price of a basket of goods and services
CPI
representative of the consumption expenditure of households within an economy.
Discount rate Policy rate for Bank of Uganda
Disinflation A decline in the rate of inflation. Here prices are still rising but with a slower momentum.
Disposable income After tax income
DM Developed markets
ECB European Central Bank
EGP Egyptian pound
EM Emerging markets
ETB Ethiopian Birr
Eurobond A bond denominated in a currency other than the home currency of the issuer.
Exports The monetary value of all goods and services produced in a country but consumed broad.
FMDQ FMDQ OTC Securities Exchange, Nigeria
FX Foreign Exchange
FY2016/17 2016/17 fiscal year
Government Consumption Expenditure - Government outlays on goods and services that are used for the
GCE direct satisfaction of the needs of individuals or groups within the community. This would normally include all
non-capital government spending.
Gross domestic expenditure, the market value of all goods and services consumed in a country – both private
GDE and public – including imports but excluding exports. This is measured over a period of time – usually a
quarter/year.
Gross Fixed Capital Formation – this is investment spending, the addition to capital stock such as equipment,
GFCF transportation assets, electricity infrastructure, etc. to replace the existing stock of productive capital that is
used in the production of goods and services in a given period of time, usually a year/quarter. Normally, the
154Standard Bank African Markets Revealed
September 2017
higher the rate of capital, the faster an economy can grow.
Gross Domestic Product – the monetary value of all finished goods and services produced in a country in a
GDP
specific period, usually a year/quarter.
GHS Ghanaian Cedi
H1:16 First half of 2016
Imports The monetary value of goods and services produced abroad and consumed locally.
The rate at which the general level of prices of goods and services are rising. It is usually measured as the
Inflation
percentage change in the consumer price index over a specific period, usually a month/year.
Invisible trade balance The value of exports of services, income and transfers, less imports of same.
Jan 16 January 2016
KBRR Kenya Bankers’ Reference Rate
KES Kenya Shilling
KR Key Rate (Bank Al Maghrib)
KRR Key Repo Rate
m/m Month on month, in reference to a rate of change
MAD Moroccan Dirham
MLF Marginal Lending Facility
MOF Ministry of Finance
MPC Monetary Policy Committee, the committee that makes the decision on policy rates
MPR Monetary Policy Rate
MUR Mauritian Rupee
MWK Malawian Kwacha
MZN Mozambican Metical
NAD Namibian Dollar
NBE National Bank of Ethiopia
NBR National Bank of Rwanda
Nominal Effective Exchange Rate. This is the weighted average rate at which a country’s currency exchanges
NEER
for a basket of currencies, usually trading partner currencies. It is measured in index format.
NGN Nigerian Naira
The monetary value of all finished goods and services produced in a country in a specific period, usually a
Nominal GDP
year/quarter, measured in current prices.
155Standard Bank African Markets Revealed
September 2017
NPL Non-Performing Loans
Refers to the par or nominal value of a debt instrument. This is usually the price at which the said instrument
Parity
is redeemed on maturity.
Personal or Household Consumption Expenditure: The monetary value of household purchases of durable
PCE or HCE
goods, non-durable goods, semi durables and services within a given period of time, usually a year/quarter.
PR Policy Rate
Prime rate key lending rate
q/q quarter on quarter, in reference to a rate of change
Q1:16 First quarter of 2016
RBM Reserve Bank of Malawi
The monetary value of all finished goods and services produced in a country in a specific period, usually a
Real GDP
year/quarter, measured in constant prices.
Real Effective Exchange Rate. This is the weighted average rate at which a country’s currency exchanges for a
REER basket of currencies - usually trading partner currencies – while taking into account any changes in relative
prices between the host country and its trading partners. It is often measured in index format.
RWF Rwandan Frank
SARB South African Reserve Bank
SDF Standing Deposit Facility (Mozambique)
SLF Standing Lending Facility (Mozambique)
Treasury bill – A short-dated, government backed security that yields no interest but is issued at a discount
T-bill
over a period of less than one year.
TND Tunisian Dinar
Treasury bond A marketable government debt security with a maturity of a year or longer
TZS Tanzanian Shilling
UGX Uganda Shilling
USD US Dollar
VAT Value Added Tax
Visible trade balance The value of exports of visible goods less imports.
West African Economic and Monetary Union, also known as Union Economique et Monetaire Ouest Africaine
WAEMU
(UEMOA)
XAF Central African Franc
XOF West African Franc
156Standard Bank African Markets Revealed
September 2017
y/y Year on year, in reference to a rate of change
Yield The return on an investment, usually expressed as a percentage over a period of time, usually a year.
YTD Year to date
ZAR South African Rand
ZMW Zambian Kwacha
157Standard Bank African Markets Revealed
September 2017
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158Standard Bank African Markets Revealed
September 2017
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159Standard Bank Research Penny Byrne Phumelele Mbiyo Jibran Qureishi +27-11-415-4177 +27-11-415-4486 +254-203-638138 Penny.Byrne@standardbank.co.za Phumelele.Mbiyo@standardbank.co.za Jibran.Qureishi@stanbic.com Walter de Wet Ayomide Mejabi Dmitry Shishkin +27-11-415-4176 +234-1-270-0667 Ext: 1923 +44-203-145-6963 Walter.DeWet@standardbank.co.za Ayomide.Mejabi@stanbicibtc.com Dmitry.Shishkin@standardbank.com Michael Kafe Fausio Mussa +27-11-415-4000 +258 215 01012 Michael.Kafe@standardbank.co.za Fausio.Mussa@standardbank.co.mz
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