UK cross sector outlook - Savills

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UK Residential, Commercial & Rural – 2019

  S P OT L I G H T
                           UK cross sector
   Savills Research
                              outlook

Investment trends and forecasts for 2019 across the residential, commercial and rural sectors
Cross sector focus                                                                                                                                      Cross sector focus

                                                                                                                                                                                          Spotting the winners and losers that may
                                                                                                                                                                                          arise from the shift away from the EU
                                                                                                                                                                                          and towards global trade will be key

 Welcome to the 2019
 edition of our annual Cross
 Sector Outlook. Our three
 heads of research, Emily
 Norton, Lucian Cook and
 Mat Oakley, present their
 forecasts for the coming
 year and give their hot picks
 for out-performance in 2019
 and beyond.
   With Brexit uncertainty
 imminent, calling the
 market for 2019 is no easy
 task. The autumn budget
 confirmed that there is
 slack in the system to
 support a shock to the
 economy, but political
 change and regulatory
 reform remain key risk
 factors. In this uncertainty,
 a flight to real-estate assets
 could be expected, but
 with capital growth lacking
 in the short term, seeking
 the best rental growth
 prospects means finding

                                  Looking forward: three
 niches and meeting
                                                                                                                                           In the residential sector, the current         commercial and rural assets. This is              regional employment is more important
 changing expectations.
                                                                                                                                        Housing Minister’s Twitter mantra of              expected to lead to the development of            than ever. A more liberal global trade agenda
 Attractive investment                                                                                                                  #MoreBetterFaster only hints at a wider           more mixed-use portfolios.                        remains a key driver for post-Brexit Britain.

                                  ways markets are evolving
 opportunities are still                                                                                                                policy shift towards more diverse housing            The rising influence of corporate investors    Spotting the winners and losers that may
 coming to the market.                                                                                                                  delivery that is more closely linked to need.     in Build to Rent also reflects this. Corporates   arise from the shift away from the
   This Spotlight helps                                                                                                                 Much of that is being channelled through          are now creating diversified products that        EU and towards global trade will be key.
 identify where the best                                                                                                                a planning system under ongoing reform.           better integrate green space and energy              Of course, social, environmental and
 value can be found across        Navigating an era of widespread uncertainty and social                                                This comes at a time when major house             accountability. The economies of scale            financial performance are the central pillars
 the various asset classes        upheaval will require a focus on the long-term drivers                                                builders have been put on notice that Help        in these developments pave the way for            of any sustainability plan, but they are also
 in the rural, commercial                                                                                                               to Buy only has a limited life, the pioneers of   enhanced well-being, stronger community           the central tenets of business resilience.
 and residential sectors
                                  of success rather than reacting to short-term trends                                                  Build to Rent have developed the models that      and better design. Critically, from a             Measuring and managing risks across these
 to inform your future                                                                                                                  will underpin the future expansion of this        financial perspective this should create          categories, with a renewed focus on the
 investment decisions.            In an era of political uncertainty and             social media has created a new way for the         sector, and providers of affordable housing       a marketing advantage.                            human and environmental aspects, has never
   Our expert knowledge           technological innovation, it is easy to become     people to hold those in power to account.          have been given more support to deliver                                                             been more important in spotting synergies
 and insight across all           reactive and risk averse. But it’s not just        We see enhanced social responsibility              on their development aspirations.                 3. Planning long-term                             and new opportunities, and thus for creating
 sectors are a tangible           political infighting and regulatory change         across multiple property investments as a                                                            The third strand brings the others together:      successful long-term investment plans.
 benefit to our clients,          that is causing uncertainty. It’s also the huge    result. Office space has to offer a people-first   2. Environmental gains                            financial resilience, which we predict will be
 and – especially at times        upheaval in society enabled by technological       environment. For rural places, welcoming           Driven by regulatory changes in rural land        based on lower capital appreciation and a
 of uncertainty – our real-       innovation. There is no certainty about            visitors remains a good way to diversify           use, we predict that ‘net environmental gain’     renewed focus on income generation than
                                  how well-established markets will react,           income streams, but the experience is              and ‘offsetting’ will be the buzzwords in land    in previous years. Despite stellar rises over
 estate expertise has never
                                  so picking winners for 2019 won’t be simple.       more important than the view. For both             use for 2019. The 25 Year Environment Plan        the past 10 years, the uncertainties over the
 been more important.
                                  But the tips in this Spotlight are based on        commercial and rural trading                       for the UK should be brought into legislative     medium term mean capital growth cannot
                                  a deep understanding of the fundamentals           investments, focusing on meeting                   effect during 2019 via an Environment Bill.       be taken for granted. Longer term, we
                                  of our markets’ economics. Not the reactive        customer expectations in generating secure         It will set out the environmental principles      remain confident that the underlying market
                                  trends, but on the long-term drivers of success.   trading or rental income is essential.             and governance that will guide all land           fundamentals will remain strong, but a
                                     During this process, we identified three        Getting the service element right in retail        use in the UK. Climate regulation and the         clear plan for riding out short- to mid-term
                                  common themes.                                     should be a central focus of commercial            ongoing attempt to meet the COP21 Paris           instability is essential. The Treasury remains
                                                                                     property investors in 2019. Online                 commitments will act as drivers in policy         confident of its key performance indicators
 James Sparrow
 CEO, UK & Europe
                                  1. Societal need                                   competition is a threat, but one need only         making and corporate social responsibility.       around employment and growth in any
 020 7409 8854                    The most dominant trend for investment             ask, “What can Amazon not do?” to start            Demand from corporate landlords and               Brexit scenario. But as we reach a stage
 jsparrow@savills.co.uk           success in 2019 is around meeting the basics       generating interesting and investable              tenants for renewable energy and on-site          of trade uncertainty post-Brexit, keeping
                                  of human needs. Across the spectrum,               concepts for trading enterprises.                  energy points to more interaction between         an eye on broader demographic trends in

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Cross sector forecast                                                                                                                                                                             Investment focus

                                                                                                                                 5.9%                      Five-year annualised
                                                                                                                                                           capital growth in

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Our key investment
                                                                                                                                                           urban logistics

                                 Growing pains                                                                                                                                                                                                                     opportunities
                                 Despite economic and political unpredictability, attractive                                                                                                                                                                       Where to find value across various asset classes
                                 investment opportunities are still coming to the market

                                 Our projections of five-year investment                                      Urban logistics sits at the top of the pile,                                              That said, investment levels from
                                 returns for different asset classes have                                  driven by the weight of money attracted                                                   wealthy overseas buyers of prime central
                                 a similar shape to last year. If anything,                                to what has become the darling of the                                                     London property are expected to improve
                                 there is now even more emphasis on the                                    commercial property sector on the back of                                                 over our forecast period. Assuming the
                                 fundamentals of supply and demand to                                      structural change and strong rental growth.                                               outlook becomes more certain, we expect
                                 support secure income streams and greater                                    In the residential sector, a continued                                                 buyers to increasingly take advantage of
                                 reliance on rental growth to deliver                                      undersupply of homes for rent underpins                                                   the price adjustments seen in this market
                                 capital appreciation. This reflects the                                   our expectation of continued rental growth.                                               since 2014, albeit not to the same degree
                                 uncertainty surrounding the economic                                      Restrictions on the tax relief available to                                               as in previous cycles.
                                 and political backdrop.                                                   mortgaged buy to let investors make it                                                       Uncertainty over the shape of future
                                    To arrive at our numbers we have had                                   more difficult to compare returns against                                                 agricultural policy and the impact of
                                 to make assumptions as to the outcome                                     other asset classes, or indeed the growing                                                prospective trade deals on commodity
                                 of Brexit. First, we have assumed it will                                 build to rent sector.                                                                     prices indicate that price growth on
                                 occur. Second, we have assumed that                                          This less-attractive investment                                                        rural assets will be confined to more                         Residential top picks                Rural top picks                          Commercial top picks
                                 whatever the outcome it will not signal                                   environment for private investors will                                                    diversified holdings or those where                           Development land in demand           Diversified income                       New London developments
                                 the end of uncertainty, which will                                        limit the stock hitting the rental market,                                                amenity value is a key component of value.                    The sweet spot in the                A key aspect to future-proof rural       The strong occupational trends
                                 persist through the first few years of the                                particularly in the lower-yielding markets                                                While the returns on this asset class look                    development-land market              businesses remains diversification       and falling levels of development
                                 forecast period. That should mean that                                    where it is more difficult for them to make                                               uninspiring, demand is likely to continue                     appears to be for smaller sites      of enterprises. Estates in the South     activity in the London office
                                 interest rates will continue to gradually                                 the maths work. This will generally shift                                                 to be underpinned by the tax benefits of                      in local authorities with high       East of England profit from greater      market look like they will leave the
                                 rise through the forecast period,                                         investment focus further north where house                                                ownership and the need for those looking                      housing targets who may              residential, commercial and trading      capital with a severe undersupply
                                 essentially meaning that we have seen                                     price growth prospects are greater, now                                                   to expand their landholding to enter the                      struggle to meet the housing         enterprise demand than those in          of Grade A office space in 2021
                                 the end of widespread yield compression                                   that we have entered the second half of                                                   market as and when a scarcely traded                          delivery test. Demand will come      other parts of the UK. This reduces      and beyond. However, some large
                                 across the sectors.                                                       the housing market cycle.                                                                 asset comes to the market.                                    from better-financed small and       their exposure to returns from           new development opportunities
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   medium sized house builders          farming. Analysing the demographic       will come to the market in 2019,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   and Housing Associations.            context of an investment is crucial      and we expect them to be
                                 Comparative returns chart The next five years: outlook for annual income and capital growth                                                                                                                                                                            to understanding income growth           strongly contested.
                         12.0%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Urban investment                     potential and capital value stability.
                                                             Key        Average annual income return                            Average annual income return (See note)                                            5-year annualised capital growth
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   There is potential for buyers                                                 Contra-cyclical
                         10.0%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     to stretch loan-to-income ratios     Quality shines through                   investment in retail
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   in second tier cities and towns in   The top-performing farms in              The unremittingly negative news
                         8.0%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      the Midlands and the North that      the UK have been forecast to             about retail has led to sharp (and
  Percentage per annum

                                    5.9%                                                                                                                                                                                                                           are well connected to major          thrive under any potential Brexit        unscientific) repricing of the sector
                         6.0%                  4.0%                                                                                                                                                                                                                regional centres or have a diverse   scenario. Where structural issues,       across the UK. Prime assets will
                                                              2.3%        2.8%                         1.6%         1.1%          0.2%                                                                                                                             local employment market. They        such as soil quality and location,       remain prime, and opportunistic
                                                                                    2.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   are likely to offer investors a      inhibit this performance, values         investors would do well to run
                         4.0%
                                                                                                                                                               2.4%                1.3%               0.9%                                                         less-crowded marketplace             may be affected. However, for            a forensic eye over UK retail to
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   compared with, for example,          good-quality land and certain            identify good assets that could
                         2.0%       4.1%       4.4% 4.5% 4.0%                        4.1%              4.5% 5.0% 4.9% 5.0%                                                                                         2.4% 4.0%                                       Manchester and Birmingham.           livestock enterprises, productivity      be bought comparatively cheaply.
                                                                                                                                                                                  3.0% 3.0%
                                                                                                                                                               2.3%                                                                                                                                     and market alignment mean that
                         0.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    1.1%                  1.1%         1.1%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        performance should be resilient
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              -0.6% -0.5%                                                               to the evolving policy and trade
                         -2.0%                                                                                                                                                                                                                        -3.6%                                             environment. Structurally sound
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        but poorly managed rural assets
                         -4.0%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          could be an attractive pick.
                                     Urban
                                   logistics

                                               North West
                                                buy to let

                                                             UK build
                                                              to rent

                                                                          UK buy
                                                                           to let

                                                                                    Central London
                                                                                             offices

                                                                                                                                                                 Prime central
                                                                                                       Regional
                                                                                                       logistics

                                                                                                                   UK student
                                                                                                                     housing

                                                                                                                                      Retail
                                                                                                                                  warehouse

                                                                                                                                               Regional
                                                                                                                                                 offices

                                                                                                                                                              London buy to let

                                                                                                                                                                                  Central London
                                                                                                                                                                                            retail

                                                                                                                                                                                                       London
                                                                                                                                                                                                      buy to let

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Amenity
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   farmland

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Shopping
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                centres

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                All
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          farmland

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Commercial
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        farmland

                            Note In a world of data, it is surprisingly difficult to arrive at comparative income returns for different asset classes. For residential buy to let investments, our model uses a
                              combination of data from the valuation office, the Land Registry and Rightmove. We have then had to take into account that while commercial property income streams
                               will often be underpinned by full repairing and insuring leases, in the residential markets these are the responsibility of the landlord. Agricultural tenancy obligations sit
                            somewhere in the middle. For consistency, we provide figures net of all irrecoverable costs in line with IPD industry standards. No account has been taken of the restricted
                                  tax relief available to private buy to let investors using mortgage finance (which would reduce effective income returns for some investors). Source Savills Research

savills.com/research                                                                                                              4                                                                                                                                                                                       5
Commercial forecast                                                                                                                                                                                   Commercial forecast

                                                                                                                                 6.2%
                                                                                                                                 is the vacancy
                                                                                                                                 rate in both industrial
                                                                                                                                 and retail property

                                                                               Back to basics                                                                                                                                                                                                  Commercial outlook: six trends for 2019
                                                                               It’s human nature to be attracted to the next big thing.
                                                                               But don’t take your eye off the essentials of your sector
                                                                               During the past two years, the commercial                           70% say noise and temperature are a problem                                                and always will. However, prime retail is
                                                                               property market has been in countless                               in their office. Perhaps we need to focus less                                             not a one-size-fits-all designation, it varies
                                                                               discussions about co-working, company                               on what is new, and more on fi xing these basic                                            from catchment to catchment. A luxurious                                                                         SHOP
                                                                               voluntary arrangements (CVAs) and                                   issues that have been around for decades.                                                  experiential mall will trade badly in a modest
                                                                               Brexit, and rather too little about market                             In the retail property sector, people are yet                                           catchment regardless of how fabulous it is.
                                                                               fundamentals and what customers want.                               again announcing the death of the high street.                                                My rule of thumb for what defines prime
                           Mat Oakley
                                                                                  The most successful investors will be                            However, in retail more than any other sector,                                             retail remains something that is dominant
                           Head of
                           Commercial Research
                                                                               those who look beyond the noise and focus                           change is continual as each new generation                                                 and fits its catchment.
                           020 7409 8781                                       on the underlying signals. Key questions for                        changes its values and behaviours. As Steve                                                   Even in the logistics sector, there is        CUSTOMER CARE                    GLOBAL CAPITAL                 RETAIL REPURPOSING
                           moakley@savills.com                                 commercial property investors must always                           Dennis of Forbes magazine says: “Physical                                                  arguably too much focus on drones and robots     The growth of workspace          London remained the            Not all retail is prime, and
                                                                               be around how a building aligns with a                              retail is not dead; boring retail is.”                                                     when the basic challenges that distributors      as a service, co-working         world’s most popular           a major theme for 2019
                                                                               tenant’s needs, and what drives those needs.                           Retailers and retail environments often                                                 face are more about staffing and fuel costs.     and serviced offices was         destination for cross-         and beyond will be what
                                                                                  In the office market, we should question                         fail because they don’t deliver what the                                                      Successful locations will continue to be      the talk of the commercial       border investment into         you do with a vacant shop.
                                                                               why businesses are drawn to ‘workspace as                           customer wants. Shoppers have always                                                       those where people want to be, and successful    property markets from 2016       real estate in 2018 and        We expect retail landlords
                                                                               a service’, and what we can learn from that.                        wanted experiences and convenience,                                                        workplaces will be those that enable people      to 2018. Its growth reflected    we do not expect this to       to look harder at mixing
                                                                               Is it about the rise of tech companies? Brexit-                                                                                                                to do their work as painlessly as possible.      a need for a better customer     change in 2019. Yields are     uses and bringing more
                                                                               related insecurity? Or is it a rejection of the                                                                                                                   Looking ahead, the smart investor in          experience for tenants.          high in the UK compared        services into their schemes.
                                                                               strictures of the traditional lease, where                                 We need to focus less on what is new,                                               commercial property could do a lot worse         The best landlords and           with most of Europe and        Residential, hotels and even
                                                                               everything is the tenant’s problem and the                                 and more on fixing basic issues that                                                than ignore the hype and ask themselves          buildings will be those that     Asia, and the possibility      warehouses will be popping
                                                                               landlord does as little as possible? Arguably,                                                                                                                 whether the asset they are buying or             look after their customers       of more opportunistic          up in retail schemes across
                                                                               commercial property may be the last sector
                                                                                                                                                          have been around for decades                                                        delivering is something that someone             best, whether they want a        deals will bring some North    the country.
                                                                               to grasp that customer care is a differentiator.                                                                                                               wants to pay for – and keep paying for.          six-month or 15-year lease.      American buyers back into
                                                                                  There are other, more basic, issues we have                                                                                                                    Chasing trends and reacting to events                                          the market in 2019.
                                                                               yet to address. For example, it is astonishing                                                                                                                 is difficult, taking the time to talk to and
                                                                               that only 58% of workers say their workplace                                                                                                                   understand your customer is much easier,
                                                                               enables them to work productively, and that                                                                                                                    and all too often ignored.

                           Investor appeal Changes in commercial property yields by sector
                     6.5
                                                                                                                                                                            Key                 October 2017             October 2018

                                                                                                                                            Are increasingly
                     6.0                                                                                                                                                                                           Secure
                                                                                                                                            low industrial
                                                                                                                                            yields driven by                                                       income
                                                                                                                                            rental growth                                                          to remain
                     5.5                                                                                                                                                                                           popular in
                                                                                                                                            prospects or
                                                                                                                                            investor demand?                                                       uncertain
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   times
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               THE RISE OF                      LONDON IN DEMAND               REGIONAL GROWTH
   Prime yield (%)

                     5.0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       LOGISTICS                        London was seen as being       The major regional
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Logistics is already the         most exposed to Brexit,        cities are generally
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               most popular commercial          but the strength of tenant     undersupplied with new
                     4.5                             Further yield                                                                                                                                                                                                                             property asset class, and        demand for London offices      office development,
                                                     softening to come,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               yields have fallen below         has contradicted this view.    and are forecast to see
                                                     but schemes
                     4.0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       those of offices and retail      With only a year’s supply of   continued employment
                                                     that match their
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               for the first time in history.   office space in the City and   growth. This, combined
                                                     catchment are
                                                     defensive and                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Occupier and investor            the West End, investor’s       with a stronger house price
                     3.5                             may be a bargain                                                                                                                                                                                                                          demand will remain strong,       eyes will turn towards         and consumer confidence
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               and industrial developers        how to capitalise on this.     story than the South East,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               will start to build upwards                                     will keep them high on
                     3.0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       to satisfy demand in the                                        investors’ wish lists in 2019.
                               High-street
                                     retail

                                              Shopping
                                                centres

                                                          Retail warehouse
                                                                (restricted)

                                                                                   Retail warehouse
                                                                                           (Open A1)

                                                                                                                       Offices
                                                                                                       Leisure parks

                                                                                                                          M25

                                                                                                                                   Provincial
                                                                                                                                      offices

                                                                                                                                                  Industrial
                                                                                                                                                distribution

                                                                                                                                                               Industrial
                                                                                                                                                                multi-let

                                                                                                                                                                             West End offices

                                                                                                                                                                                                    City offices

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Regional
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      hotels

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Foodstores
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    (OMR)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               most constrained locations.                                     Mixed-use development, in
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               particular, looks interesting
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               in these markets.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Source Savills Research

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Residential forecast                                                                                                                                                 Residential forecast

                                                                                                                     478%
                                                                                                                     total pipeline growth
                                                                                                                     of build to rent stock
                                                                                                                     over the past five years

                                                                     New kids on the block                                                                                                                                                    Residential outlook: six trends for 2019
                                                                     Purpose-built, institutionally owned build to rent stock has
                                                                     become a significant component of new housing delivery
                                                                     Until recently, small-scale private landlords   Quintain, Long Harbour and Grainger,                                      The number of operational build to rent
                                                                     dominated the residential property market,      purpose-built, institutionally owned build                             units remains a tiny fraction of the nation’s
                                                                     with a small number of large-scale private      to rent stock has become a significant and                             private rented stock. And, while the range
                                                                     and institutional investors sitting on          increasingly important component of new                                of investors has grown, some of the largest
                                                                     legacy portfolios.                              housing delivery.                                                      owners of multi-family in the US remain
                                                                        Around 2000, buy to let investment              To put this into context, in the year to                            noticeable by their absence in the UK,
                     Lucian Cook
                                                                     ballooned, driven primarily by the promise      the end of September 2018, the number of                               as do the big pension funds.
                     Head of
                     Residential Research
                                                                     of inflation-busting house price growth.        outstanding buy to let mortgages grew by just                             The focus has also shifted from an
                     020 7016 3837                                   An income return was the icing on the cake.     1.1%. The number of build to rent units either                         investment perspective. In this new               SENTIMENT TO                    REGIONAL                       FOCUS ON INCOME
                     lcook@savills.com                               At its peak, in 2007, more than 183,000         complete or under construction rose by 30%.                            age of residential property investment,           HOLD SWAY                       REBALANCING                    With the potential for
                                                                     mortgages were granted for the purchase            There has been innovation in planning,                              the emphasis has shifted to delivering            In 2019, house price            Evidence suggests we           house price growth
                                                                     of buy to let stock. That represented an        design, delivery, management and branding,                             a competitive long-term income stream.            movements are more              have moved into the            limited by the prospect
                                                                     increase of 22% in the number of such           laying the foundations for future growth.                              Since 2011, there has been a healthy margin       likely to be dictated by        second part of the current     of increasing interest rates
                                                                     mortgages in existence – in just one year.      Equally, there appears to be plenty of capacity                        over gilts, though achieving that has required    buyer confidence than           housing cycle where the        and mortgage regulation,
                                                                        After the Global Financial Crisis (GFC),     for an increasingly diversified offering.                              investors to take on the risks inherent with      affordability. Uncertainty      markets of the Midlands        we expect investors to
                                                                     the number of buy to let mortgages granted                                                                             developing and delivering a new product           regarding what final Brexit     and North of England           pay closer attention to the
                                                                     fell and private cash investors became the                                                                             and matching that to demand.                      negotiations mean for           outperform those of            income stream delivered
                                                                     dominant player. While the number of               There has been innovation                                              With interest rates and gilt yields            household finances is likely    London and the South.          by their residential
                                                                     households in the private rented sector            in planning, design, delivery,                                      expected to rise gradually over the next five     to result in continued buyer    We expect this to be           investment. This is expected
                                                                     continued to grow at the rate of between                                                                               years, all property asset classes will see some   caution, providing little       reflected in investor          to be accompanied by
                                                                     200,000 and 250,000 per year, larger
                                                                                                                        management and branding                                             upward pressure on yields. Even though there      impetus for house price         focus through 2019             a shift from private to
                                                                     institutions looked on. While they understood                                                                          are acknowledged risks around regulation,         growth at a national level.     and the next five years.       corporate investment.
                                                                     the fundamentals of a mismatch in supply and                                                                           what sets build to rent apart is a potential
                                                                     demand, they fretted over the entry barriers.                                                                          for rental value growth underpinned by
                                                                        That is no longer the case. Pioneered                                                                               structural change in how we live, and
                                                                     by the likes of M&G, Delancey, Sigma,                                                                                  compression of the risk premium as the
                                                                                                                                                                                            sector evolves and matures.

                                                          On the rise Build to rent continues to gather momentum
                                                 45,000
                                                                                          Key     September 2015      September 2016        September 2017         September 2018

                                                 40,000
                 Number of build to rent homes

                                                 35,000

                                                 30,000                                                                                                                                                                                       BOOST FOR                       PRESSURE ON                    DIVERSITY ON
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              BUILD TO RENT                   PLANNING                       LARGE SITES
                                                 25,000                                                                                                                                                                                       By the end of Q3 2018,          Measures to standardise        A slowing housing market
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              there were 15 institutional     the calculation of housing     in areas of highest housing
                                                 20,000                                                                                                                    41,870                                                             build to rent schemes with      delivery targets and hold      need will mean greater
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              plans to deliver more than      local authorities to account   diversity tenures will
                                                 15,000                                                                                                  31,553                                                                               1,000 homes each. We            for the homes built in their   need to be delivered to
                                                                                                       25,665                                                                                                                                 expect large-scale investors    area through the planning      meet housing targets. As
                                                 10,000                                20,401                                           20,942                                                                                                who are keen to exploit         system are likely to           highlighted by the Letwin
                                                                                                                        14,039                                                                                                                operational economies of        gradually feed through into    Review, this could include
                                                  5,000                  11,957                                                                                                                                                               scale to deliver more large,    more planning consents in      more build to rent product
                                                             6,613                                                                                                                                                                            but increasingly diversified,   areas of high housing need.    and affordable housing.
                                                     0                                                                                                                                                                                        offerings to the private
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              rental market.
                                                                               Complete                                                      Construction

                                                                                                                                                Source Savills Research using BPF, Molior

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Rural forecast                                                                                                                                                                                 Rural forecast

                                                                                                                                £11.9bn
                                                                                                                                The natural capital valuation
                                                                                                                                of Forestry Commission
                                                                                                                                England’s woodland (2015)

                                                                           Natural selection                                                                                                                                                                                    Rural outlook: six trends for 2019
                                                                            The importance of natural capital will require
                                                                            farmers and landowners to prioritise sustainability
                                                                            Natural capital is gaining credence as the             The 25 Year Environment Plan is                                                            Bill, unlike the Common Agricultural Policy
                                                                            future foundation of public investment              significant. It is expected to be the basis                                                   (CAP). So, we predict that some farming
                                                                            in land management. The concept offers              of the forthcoming Environmental Bill                                                         businesses are likely to receive less in the
                                                                            a broader range of possibilities for landowners     and, based on the Government’s ambition,                                                      way of public support in the future. Instead,
                                                                            than public money alone, with new offerings in      could create an entirely new baseline in                                                      the proposal in the Agriculture Bill is for
                                                                            private finance for green investments coming        environmental regulation for the UK. The                                                      public money to be invested in classes of
                                             Emily Norton
                                                                            to the market with increasing frequency.            Plan sets out three key principles for the                                                    natural services that would not otherwise
                                             Head of
                                             Rural Research
                                                                               The concept of natural capital has               future of all land management in the UK:                                                      be supplied privately, such as climate
                                             020 7016 3786                  gained a foothold in the UK rural economy           public money for public goods, the ‘polluter                                                  mitigation and biodiversity.                      REGULATORY CHANGE              EXPERIENTIAL                    COMMODITY
                                             emily.norton                   through the work of influential academics           pays’ principle, and a net environmental                                                          There have been a number of well-             The new agricultural and       DIVERSIFICATION                 STRENGTH
                                             @savills.com                   such as Professor Dieter Helm, chair of the         gain on all new developments.                                                                 publicised partnerships between water             environmental regulatory       Appetite for countryside        In 2018, there were big
                                                                            Natural Capital Committee, which advises               Despite lobbying efforts, it has been made                                                 companies and land managers that have paid        landscape will impact rural    fun remains solid, but think    increases in farmgate
                                                                            the Government on its environmental                 clear that food (or food security) is not                                                     farmers to change their farming practices         businesses in 2019 and         of experiences rather than      prices for UK cereals
                                                                            performance. The natural capital concept            considered to be a public good, and there is no                                               to avoid causing pollution. However, one          beyond. Preparing for life     shows and events. Park          crops. An increasing global
                                                                            underpins the 25 Year Environment Plan,             mention of income support in the Agriculture                                                  concern is that a strict application of the       without, or with reduced,      runs, flower fields, Frisbee    population means that
                                                                            and the ‘public money for public goods’                                                                                                           ‘polluter pays’ principle would undermine         public subsidies means         golf and Halloween fright       commodity consumption
                                                                            elements of the Agriculture Bill.                                                                                                                 the viability of this fledgling ‘market in        that a focus on business       nights all make the most of     is not predicted to abate
                                                                               Natural capital can be defined as the               The concept of natural capital                                                             avoided costs’. Certainly, this type of private   resilience is vital and        the available space, unique     any time soon. Subject to
                                                                            stock of natural assets, including geology,            has gained a foothold in the                                                               investment implies a perverse incentive to        natural capital may become     landscapes and atmosphere       careful management of
                                                                            soil, air, water and all living things. From                                                                                                      pollute. Avoiding flooding and mitigating         an important income            of country estates, while       trading and market risk,
                                                                            these assets we derive the goods and
                                                                                                                                   UK rural economy                                                                           consumer and trade pollution through water        generator. The impact          competing for the attention     such as exchange rates,
                                                                            services that make human life possible,                                                                                                           filtration services remain areas to consider.     on the performance of let      of cash-pressed, image-         the outlook for commodity
                                                                            including food, drinking water, building                                                                                                              What is clear is that government is looking   land will be one to watch.     conscious millennials.          prices is positive.
                                                                            materials, climate regulation, flood defence                                                                                                      for ways to attract private investment into
                                                                            and pollination. Collectively, these are                                                                                                          ecosystem services, and to blend this with
                                                                            known as ‘ecosystem services’.                                                                                                                    public investment. Carbon credits and the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              forestry agenda is an obvious case in point.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              At present, this market is dysfunctional
                                           GB farmland forecasts Divergence of potential                                                                                                                                      and would benefit from reform to
                                                                                             Key     GB supply    GB supply forecast   Average value GB farmland
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              facilitate investment.                                                                                                   2027
                                                                           Straight commercial holdings value forecasts   Amenity/lifestyle holdings value forecast                                                               The issue is that in many cases nobody
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              really owns the natural capital asset. That
                                  £8,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              is indeed why these assets have been
                                                                                                                                                                                       250,000                                exploited rather than preserved.
                                  £7,000                                                                                                                                                                                          What is it going to take for these new
Average farmland value (£/acre)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              assets in natural goods and services to be
                                                                                                                                                                                                 GB farmland supply (acres)

                                  £6,000                                                                                                                                               200,000                                valued and traded as commodities in their         AGRITECTURE                    LAND VALUE CAPTURE              INCREASED LIQUIDITY
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              own right? A regulated marketplace is key,        Managing increased climatic    Greenfield uplift values have   The regulatory reform
                                  £5,000                                                                                                                                                                                      but certainty over property rights is more        risks – both shock events      to be competitive to            position has announced
                                                                                                                                                                                       150,000                                important. Blending public and private            and seasonal fluctuations      encourage landowners to         the end of the Basic
                                  £4,000                                                                                                                                                                                      sources of investment will then be possible       – could be the turning point   bring land forward for          Payment Scheme by
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              and perhaps crucial to developing valuable        in the economic viability      development, but land           2027. This means that
                                  £3,000                                                                                                                                               100,000                                multifunctional landscapes and income             of controlled environment      value capture remains           many rural businesses
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              opportunities for land owners.                    growing systems, such as       one to watch for 2019. ‘Net     will be evaluating their
                                  £2,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        hydroponics. There are         environmental gain’ is          10-year succession plans.
                                                                                                                                                                                       50,000                                                                                   options beyond commercial      pitched as a way to extract     We predict that this will
                                  £1,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        scale too: integrating smart   funding for environmental       bring more land to the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                growing systems into the       offsetting from development,    market than has been
                                     £0                                                                                                                                                0                                                                                        built environment offers       but this sits alongside other   the case recently.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                engaging experiences           measures that already
                                                                                                 2014

                                                                                                         2015

                                                                                                                 2016

                                                                                                                         2017

                                                                                                                                   2018

                                                                                                                                           2019

                                                                                                                                                   2020

                                                                                                                                                           2021

                                                                                                                                                                   2022

                                                                                                                                                                            2023
                                             2007

                                                    2008

                                                           2009

                                                                  2010

                                                                         2011

                                                                                 2012

                                                                                         2013

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                and enhanced well-being        capture significant land
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                in residential spaces.         value, including much-
                                                                                                                                                             Source Savills Research
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               needed affordable housing.

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Savills Research
                              We’re a dedicated team with an unrivalled reputation for producing well-informed and
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Emily Norton                                 Mat Oakley                                   Lucian Cook                                  James Sparrow                                 Richard Rees
Head of                                      Head of                                      Head of                                      CEO,                                          Managing Director (UK),
Rural Research                               Commercial Research                          Residential Research                         UK & Europe                                   Development Services
020 7016 3786                                020 7409 8781                                020 7016 3837                                020 7409 8854                                 020 7499 8644
emily.norton@savills.com                     moakley@savills.com                          lcook@savills.com                            jsparrow@savills.co.uk                        rrees@savills.com

Andrew Harle                                 Justin Marking                               James Gulliford                              Peter Allen
Head of UK Rural                             Head of                                      Head of                                      Head of Operational
01904 756 312                                Global Residential                           UK Investment                                Capital Markets
aharle@savills.co.uk                         020 7499 8644                                020 7409 8711                                020 7499 8644
                                             jmarking@savills.com                         jgulliford@savills.co.uk                     pallen@savills.com

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