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UK Residential, Commercial & Rural – 2019 S P OT L I G H T UK cross sector Savills Research outlook Investment trends and forecasts for 2019 across the residential, commercial and rural sectors
Cross sector focus Cross sector focus Spotting the winners and losers that may arise from the shift away from the EU and towards global trade will be key Welcome to the 2019 edition of our annual Cross Sector Outlook. Our three heads of research, Emily Norton, Lucian Cook and Mat Oakley, present their forecasts for the coming year and give their hot picks for out-performance in 2019 and beyond. With Brexit uncertainty imminent, calling the market for 2019 is no easy task. The autumn budget confirmed that there is slack in the system to support a shock to the economy, but political change and regulatory reform remain key risk factors. In this uncertainty, a flight to real-estate assets could be expected, but with capital growth lacking in the short term, seeking the best rental growth prospects means finding Looking forward: three niches and meeting In the residential sector, the current commercial and rural assets. This is regional employment is more important changing expectations. Housing Minister’s Twitter mantra of expected to lead to the development of than ever. A more liberal global trade agenda Attractive investment #MoreBetterFaster only hints at a wider more mixed-use portfolios. remains a key driver for post-Brexit Britain. ways markets are evolving opportunities are still policy shift towards more diverse housing The rising influence of corporate investors Spotting the winners and losers that may coming to the market. delivery that is more closely linked to need. in Build to Rent also reflects this. Corporates arise from the shift away from the This Spotlight helps Much of that is being channelled through are now creating diversified products that EU and towards global trade will be key. identify where the best a planning system under ongoing reform. better integrate green space and energy Of course, social, environmental and value can be found across Navigating an era of widespread uncertainty and social This comes at a time when major house accountability. The economies of scale financial performance are the central pillars the various asset classes upheaval will require a focus on the long-term drivers builders have been put on notice that Help in these developments pave the way for of any sustainability plan, but they are also in the rural, commercial to Buy only has a limited life, the pioneers of enhanced well-being, stronger community the central tenets of business resilience. and residential sectors of success rather than reacting to short-term trends Build to Rent have developed the models that and better design. Critically, from a Measuring and managing risks across these to inform your future will underpin the future expansion of this financial perspective this should create categories, with a renewed focus on the investment decisions. In an era of political uncertainty and social media has created a new way for the sector, and providers of affordable housing a marketing advantage. human and environmental aspects, has never Our expert knowledge technological innovation, it is easy to become people to hold those in power to account. have been given more support to deliver been more important in spotting synergies and insight across all reactive and risk averse. But it’s not just We see enhanced social responsibility on their development aspirations. 3. Planning long-term and new opportunities, and thus for creating sectors are a tangible political infighting and regulatory change across multiple property investments as a The third strand brings the others together: successful long-term investment plans. benefit to our clients, that is causing uncertainty. It’s also the huge result. Office space has to offer a people-first 2. Environmental gains financial resilience, which we predict will be and – especially at times upheaval in society enabled by technological environment. For rural places, welcoming Driven by regulatory changes in rural land based on lower capital appreciation and a of uncertainty – our real- innovation. There is no certainty about visitors remains a good way to diversify use, we predict that ‘net environmental gain’ renewed focus on income generation than how well-established markets will react, income streams, but the experience is and ‘offsetting’ will be the buzzwords in land in previous years. Despite stellar rises over estate expertise has never so picking winners for 2019 won’t be simple. more important than the view. For both use for 2019. The 25 Year Environment Plan the past 10 years, the uncertainties over the been more important. But the tips in this Spotlight are based on commercial and rural trading for the UK should be brought into legislative medium term mean capital growth cannot a deep understanding of the fundamentals investments, focusing on meeting effect during 2019 via an Environment Bill. be taken for granted. Longer term, we of our markets’ economics. Not the reactive customer expectations in generating secure It will set out the environmental principles remain confident that the underlying market trends, but on the long-term drivers of success. trading or rental income is essential. and governance that will guide all land fundamentals will remain strong, but a During this process, we identified three Getting the service element right in retail use in the UK. Climate regulation and the clear plan for riding out short- to mid-term common themes. should be a central focus of commercial ongoing attempt to meet the COP21 Paris instability is essential. The Treasury remains property investors in 2019. Online commitments will act as drivers in policy confident of its key performance indicators James Sparrow CEO, UK & Europe 1. Societal need competition is a threat, but one need only making and corporate social responsibility. around employment and growth in any 020 7409 8854 The most dominant trend for investment ask, “What can Amazon not do?” to start Demand from corporate landlords and Brexit scenario. But as we reach a stage jsparrow@savills.co.uk success in 2019 is around meeting the basics generating interesting and investable tenants for renewable energy and on-site of trade uncertainty post-Brexit, keeping of human needs. Across the spectrum, concepts for trading enterprises. energy points to more interaction between an eye on broader demographic trends in savills.com/research 2 3
Cross sector forecast Investment focus 5.9% Five-year annualised capital growth in Our key investment urban logistics Growing pains opportunities Despite economic and political unpredictability, attractive Where to find value across various asset classes investment opportunities are still coming to the market Our projections of five-year investment Urban logistics sits at the top of the pile, That said, investment levels from returns for different asset classes have driven by the weight of money attracted wealthy overseas buyers of prime central a similar shape to last year. If anything, to what has become the darling of the London property are expected to improve there is now even more emphasis on the commercial property sector on the back of over our forecast period. Assuming the fundamentals of supply and demand to structural change and strong rental growth. outlook becomes more certain, we expect support secure income streams and greater In the residential sector, a continued buyers to increasingly take advantage of reliance on rental growth to deliver undersupply of homes for rent underpins the price adjustments seen in this market capital appreciation. This reflects the our expectation of continued rental growth. since 2014, albeit not to the same degree uncertainty surrounding the economic Restrictions on the tax relief available to as in previous cycles. and political backdrop. mortgaged buy to let investors make it Uncertainty over the shape of future To arrive at our numbers we have had more difficult to compare returns against agricultural policy and the impact of to make assumptions as to the outcome other asset classes, or indeed the growing prospective trade deals on commodity of Brexit. First, we have assumed it will build to rent sector. prices indicate that price growth on occur. Second, we have assumed that This less-attractive investment rural assets will be confined to more Residential top picks Rural top picks Commercial top picks whatever the outcome it will not signal environment for private investors will diversified holdings or those where Development land in demand Diversified income New London developments the end of uncertainty, which will limit the stock hitting the rental market, amenity value is a key component of value. The sweet spot in the A key aspect to future-proof rural The strong occupational trends persist through the first few years of the particularly in the lower-yielding markets While the returns on this asset class look development-land market businesses remains diversification and falling levels of development forecast period. That should mean that where it is more difficult for them to make uninspiring, demand is likely to continue appears to be for smaller sites of enterprises. Estates in the South activity in the London office interest rates will continue to gradually the maths work. This will generally shift to be underpinned by the tax benefits of in local authorities with high East of England profit from greater market look like they will leave the rise through the forecast period, investment focus further north where house ownership and the need for those looking housing targets who may residential, commercial and trading capital with a severe undersupply essentially meaning that we have seen price growth prospects are greater, now to expand their landholding to enter the struggle to meet the housing enterprise demand than those in of Grade A office space in 2021 the end of widespread yield compression that we have entered the second half of market as and when a scarcely traded delivery test. Demand will come other parts of the UK. This reduces and beyond. However, some large across the sectors. the housing market cycle. asset comes to the market. from better-financed small and their exposure to returns from new development opportunities medium sized house builders farming. Analysing the demographic will come to the market in 2019, and Housing Associations. context of an investment is crucial and we expect them to be Comparative returns chart The next five years: outlook for annual income and capital growth to understanding income growth strongly contested. 12.0% Urban investment potential and capital value stability. Key Average annual income return Average annual income return (See note) 5-year annualised capital growth There is potential for buyers Contra-cyclical 10.0% to stretch loan-to-income ratios Quality shines through investment in retail in second tier cities and towns in The top-performing farms in The unremittingly negative news 8.0% the Midlands and the North that the UK have been forecast to about retail has led to sharp (and Percentage per annum 5.9% are well connected to major thrive under any potential Brexit unscientific) repricing of the sector 6.0% 4.0% regional centres or have a diverse scenario. Where structural issues, across the UK. Prime assets will 2.3% 2.8% 1.6% 1.1% 0.2% local employment market. They such as soil quality and location, remain prime, and opportunistic 2.0% are likely to offer investors a inhibit this performance, values investors would do well to run 4.0% 2.4% 1.3% 0.9% less-crowded marketplace may be affected. However, for a forensic eye over UK retail to compared with, for example, good-quality land and certain identify good assets that could 2.0% 4.1% 4.4% 4.5% 4.0% 4.1% 4.5% 5.0% 4.9% 5.0% 2.4% 4.0% Manchester and Birmingham. livestock enterprises, productivity be bought comparatively cheaply. 3.0% 3.0% 2.3% and market alignment mean that 0.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% performance should be resilient -0.6% -0.5% to the evolving policy and trade -2.0% -3.6% environment. Structurally sound but poorly managed rural assets -4.0% could be an attractive pick. Urban logistics North West buy to let UK build to rent UK buy to let Central London offices Prime central Regional logistics UK student housing Retail warehouse Regional offices London buy to let Central London retail London buy to let Amenity farmland Shopping centres All farmland Commercial farmland Note In a world of data, it is surprisingly difficult to arrive at comparative income returns for different asset classes. For residential buy to let investments, our model uses a combination of data from the valuation office, the Land Registry and Rightmove. We have then had to take into account that while commercial property income streams will often be underpinned by full repairing and insuring leases, in the residential markets these are the responsibility of the landlord. Agricultural tenancy obligations sit somewhere in the middle. For consistency, we provide figures net of all irrecoverable costs in line with IPD industry standards. No account has been taken of the restricted tax relief available to private buy to let investors using mortgage finance (which would reduce effective income returns for some investors). Source Savills Research savills.com/research 4 5
Commercial forecast Commercial forecast 6.2% is the vacancy rate in both industrial and retail property Back to basics Commercial outlook: six trends for 2019 It’s human nature to be attracted to the next big thing. But don’t take your eye off the essentials of your sector During the past two years, the commercial 70% say noise and temperature are a problem and always will. However, prime retail is property market has been in countless in their office. Perhaps we need to focus less not a one-size-fits-all designation, it varies discussions about co-working, company on what is new, and more on fi xing these basic from catchment to catchment. A luxurious SHOP voluntary arrangements (CVAs) and issues that have been around for decades. experiential mall will trade badly in a modest Brexit, and rather too little about market In the retail property sector, people are yet catchment regardless of how fabulous it is. fundamentals and what customers want. again announcing the death of the high street. My rule of thumb for what defines prime Mat Oakley The most successful investors will be However, in retail more than any other sector, retail remains something that is dominant Head of Commercial Research those who look beyond the noise and focus change is continual as each new generation and fits its catchment. 020 7409 8781 on the underlying signals. Key questions for changes its values and behaviours. As Steve Even in the logistics sector, there is CUSTOMER CARE GLOBAL CAPITAL RETAIL REPURPOSING moakley@savills.com commercial property investors must always Dennis of Forbes magazine says: “Physical arguably too much focus on drones and robots The growth of workspace London remained the Not all retail is prime, and be around how a building aligns with a retail is not dead; boring retail is.” when the basic challenges that distributors as a service, co-working world’s most popular a major theme for 2019 tenant’s needs, and what drives those needs. Retailers and retail environments often face are more about staffing and fuel costs. and serviced offices was destination for cross- and beyond will be what In the office market, we should question fail because they don’t deliver what the Successful locations will continue to be the talk of the commercial border investment into you do with a vacant shop. why businesses are drawn to ‘workspace as customer wants. Shoppers have always those where people want to be, and successful property markets from 2016 real estate in 2018 and We expect retail landlords a service’, and what we can learn from that. wanted experiences and convenience, workplaces will be those that enable people to 2018. Its growth reflected we do not expect this to to look harder at mixing Is it about the rise of tech companies? Brexit- to do their work as painlessly as possible. a need for a better customer change in 2019. Yields are uses and bringing more related insecurity? Or is it a rejection of the Looking ahead, the smart investor in experience for tenants. high in the UK compared services into their schemes. strictures of the traditional lease, where We need to focus less on what is new, commercial property could do a lot worse The best landlords and with most of Europe and Residential, hotels and even everything is the tenant’s problem and the and more on fixing basic issues that than ignore the hype and ask themselves buildings will be those that Asia, and the possibility warehouses will be popping landlord does as little as possible? Arguably, whether the asset they are buying or look after their customers of more opportunistic up in retail schemes across commercial property may be the last sector have been around for decades delivering is something that someone best, whether they want a deals will bring some North the country. to grasp that customer care is a differentiator. wants to pay for – and keep paying for. six-month or 15-year lease. American buyers back into There are other, more basic, issues we have Chasing trends and reacting to events the market in 2019. yet to address. For example, it is astonishing is difficult, taking the time to talk to and that only 58% of workers say their workplace understand your customer is much easier, enables them to work productively, and that and all too often ignored. Investor appeal Changes in commercial property yields by sector 6.5 Key October 2017 October 2018 Are increasingly 6.0 Secure low industrial yields driven by income rental growth to remain 5.5 popular in prospects or investor demand? uncertain times THE RISE OF LONDON IN DEMAND REGIONAL GROWTH Prime yield (%) 5.0 LOGISTICS London was seen as being The major regional Logistics is already the most exposed to Brexit, cities are generally most popular commercial but the strength of tenant undersupplied with new 4.5 Further yield property asset class, and demand for London offices office development, softening to come, yields have fallen below has contradicted this view. and are forecast to see but schemes 4.0 those of offices and retail With only a year’s supply of continued employment that match their for the first time in history. office space in the City and growth. This, combined catchment are defensive and Occupier and investor the West End, investor’s with a stronger house price 3.5 may be a bargain demand will remain strong, eyes will turn towards and consumer confidence and industrial developers how to capitalise on this. story than the South East, will start to build upwards will keep them high on 3.0 to satisfy demand in the investors’ wish lists in 2019. High-street retail Shopping centres Retail warehouse (restricted) Retail warehouse (Open A1) Offices Leisure parks M25 Provincial offices Industrial distribution Industrial multi-let West End offices City offices Regional hotels Foodstores (OMR) most constrained locations. Mixed-use development, in particular, looks interesting in these markets. Source Savills Research savills.com/research 6 7
Residential forecast Residential forecast 478% total pipeline growth of build to rent stock over the past five years New kids on the block Residential outlook: six trends for 2019 Purpose-built, institutionally owned build to rent stock has become a significant component of new housing delivery Until recently, small-scale private landlords Quintain, Long Harbour and Grainger, The number of operational build to rent dominated the residential property market, purpose-built, institutionally owned build units remains a tiny fraction of the nation’s with a small number of large-scale private to rent stock has become a significant and private rented stock. And, while the range and institutional investors sitting on increasingly important component of new of investors has grown, some of the largest legacy portfolios. housing delivery. owners of multi-family in the US remain Around 2000, buy to let investment To put this into context, in the year to noticeable by their absence in the UK, Lucian Cook ballooned, driven primarily by the promise the end of September 2018, the number of as do the big pension funds. Head of Residential Research of inflation-busting house price growth. outstanding buy to let mortgages grew by just The focus has also shifted from an 020 7016 3837 An income return was the icing on the cake. 1.1%. The number of build to rent units either investment perspective. In this new SENTIMENT TO REGIONAL FOCUS ON INCOME lcook@savills.com At its peak, in 2007, more than 183,000 complete or under construction rose by 30%. age of residential property investment, HOLD SWAY REBALANCING With the potential for mortgages were granted for the purchase There has been innovation in planning, the emphasis has shifted to delivering In 2019, house price Evidence suggests we house price growth of buy to let stock. That represented an design, delivery, management and branding, a competitive long-term income stream. movements are more have moved into the limited by the prospect increase of 22% in the number of such laying the foundations for future growth. Since 2011, there has been a healthy margin likely to be dictated by second part of the current of increasing interest rates mortgages in existence – in just one year. Equally, there appears to be plenty of capacity over gilts, though achieving that has required buyer confidence than housing cycle where the and mortgage regulation, After the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), for an increasingly diversified offering. investors to take on the risks inherent with affordability. Uncertainty markets of the Midlands we expect investors to the number of buy to let mortgages granted developing and delivering a new product regarding what final Brexit and North of England pay closer attention to the fell and private cash investors became the and matching that to demand. negotiations mean for outperform those of income stream delivered dominant player. While the number of There has been innovation With interest rates and gilt yields household finances is likely London and the South. by their residential households in the private rented sector in planning, design, delivery, expected to rise gradually over the next five to result in continued buyer We expect this to be investment. This is expected continued to grow at the rate of between years, all property asset classes will see some caution, providing little reflected in investor to be accompanied by 200,000 and 250,000 per year, larger management and branding upward pressure on yields. Even though there impetus for house price focus through 2019 a shift from private to institutions looked on. While they understood are acknowledged risks around regulation, growth at a national level. and the next five years. corporate investment. the fundamentals of a mismatch in supply and what sets build to rent apart is a potential demand, they fretted over the entry barriers. for rental value growth underpinned by That is no longer the case. Pioneered structural change in how we live, and by the likes of M&G, Delancey, Sigma, compression of the risk premium as the sector evolves and matures. On the rise Build to rent continues to gather momentum 45,000 Key September 2015 September 2016 September 2017 September 2018 40,000 Number of build to rent homes 35,000 30,000 BOOST FOR PRESSURE ON DIVERSITY ON BUILD TO RENT PLANNING LARGE SITES 25,000 By the end of Q3 2018, Measures to standardise A slowing housing market there were 15 institutional the calculation of housing in areas of highest housing 20,000 41,870 build to rent schemes with delivery targets and hold need will mean greater plans to deliver more than local authorities to account diversity tenures will 15,000 31,553 1,000 homes each. We for the homes built in their need to be delivered to 25,665 expect large-scale investors area through the planning meet housing targets. As 10,000 20,401 20,942 who are keen to exploit system are likely to highlighted by the Letwin 14,039 operational economies of gradually feed through into Review, this could include 5,000 11,957 scale to deliver more large, more planning consents in more build to rent product 6,613 but increasingly diversified, areas of high housing need. and affordable housing. 0 offerings to the private rental market. Complete Construction Source Savills Research using BPF, Molior savills.com/research 8 9
Rural forecast Rural forecast £11.9bn The natural capital valuation of Forestry Commission England’s woodland (2015) Natural selection Rural outlook: six trends for 2019 The importance of natural capital will require farmers and landowners to prioritise sustainability Natural capital is gaining credence as the The 25 Year Environment Plan is Bill, unlike the Common Agricultural Policy future foundation of public investment significant. It is expected to be the basis (CAP). So, we predict that some farming in land management. The concept offers of the forthcoming Environmental Bill businesses are likely to receive less in the a broader range of possibilities for landowners and, based on the Government’s ambition, way of public support in the future. Instead, than public money alone, with new offerings in could create an entirely new baseline in the proposal in the Agriculture Bill is for private finance for green investments coming environmental regulation for the UK. The public money to be invested in classes of Emily Norton to the market with increasing frequency. Plan sets out three key principles for the natural services that would not otherwise Head of Rural Research The concept of natural capital has future of all land management in the UK: be supplied privately, such as climate 020 7016 3786 gained a foothold in the UK rural economy public money for public goods, the ‘polluter mitigation and biodiversity. REGULATORY CHANGE EXPERIENTIAL COMMODITY emily.norton through the work of influential academics pays’ principle, and a net environmental There have been a number of well- The new agricultural and DIVERSIFICATION STRENGTH @savills.com such as Professor Dieter Helm, chair of the gain on all new developments. publicised partnerships between water environmental regulatory Appetite for countryside In 2018, there were big Natural Capital Committee, which advises Despite lobbying efforts, it has been made companies and land managers that have paid landscape will impact rural fun remains solid, but think increases in farmgate the Government on its environmental clear that food (or food security) is not farmers to change their farming practices businesses in 2019 and of experiences rather than prices for UK cereals performance. The natural capital concept considered to be a public good, and there is no to avoid causing pollution. However, one beyond. Preparing for life shows and events. Park crops. An increasing global underpins the 25 Year Environment Plan, mention of income support in the Agriculture concern is that a strict application of the without, or with reduced, runs, flower fields, Frisbee population means that and the ‘public money for public goods’ ‘polluter pays’ principle would undermine public subsidies means golf and Halloween fright commodity consumption elements of the Agriculture Bill. the viability of this fledgling ‘market in that a focus on business nights all make the most of is not predicted to abate Natural capital can be defined as the The concept of natural capital avoided costs’. Certainly, this type of private resilience is vital and the available space, unique any time soon. Subject to stock of natural assets, including geology, has gained a foothold in the investment implies a perverse incentive to natural capital may become landscapes and atmosphere careful management of soil, air, water and all living things. From pollute. Avoiding flooding and mitigating an important income of country estates, while trading and market risk, these assets we derive the goods and UK rural economy consumer and trade pollution through water generator. The impact competing for the attention such as exchange rates, services that make human life possible, filtration services remain areas to consider. on the performance of let of cash-pressed, image- the outlook for commodity including food, drinking water, building What is clear is that government is looking land will be one to watch. conscious millennials. prices is positive. materials, climate regulation, flood defence for ways to attract private investment into and pollination. Collectively, these are ecosystem services, and to blend this with known as ‘ecosystem services’. public investment. Carbon credits and the forestry agenda is an obvious case in point. At present, this market is dysfunctional GB farmland forecasts Divergence of potential and would benefit from reform to Key GB supply GB supply forecast Average value GB farmland facilitate investment. 2027 Straight commercial holdings value forecasts Amenity/lifestyle holdings value forecast The issue is that in many cases nobody really owns the natural capital asset. That £8,000 is indeed why these assets have been 250,000 exploited rather than preserved. £7,000 What is it going to take for these new Average farmland value (£/acre) assets in natural goods and services to be GB farmland supply (acres) £6,000 200,000 valued and traded as commodities in their AGRITECTURE LAND VALUE CAPTURE INCREASED LIQUIDITY own right? A regulated marketplace is key, Managing increased climatic Greenfield uplift values have The regulatory reform £5,000 but certainty over property rights is more risks – both shock events to be competitive to position has announced 150,000 important. Blending public and private and seasonal fluctuations encourage landowners to the end of the Basic £4,000 sources of investment will then be possible – could be the turning point bring land forward for Payment Scheme by and perhaps crucial to developing valuable in the economic viability development, but land 2027. This means that £3,000 100,000 multifunctional landscapes and income of controlled environment value capture remains many rural businesses opportunities for land owners. growing systems, such as one to watch for 2019. ‘Net will be evaluating their £2,000 hydroponics. There are environmental gain’ is 10-year succession plans. 50,000 options beyond commercial pitched as a way to extract We predict that this will £1,000 scale too: integrating smart funding for environmental bring more land to the growing systems into the offsetting from development, market than has been £0 0 built environment offers but this sits alongside other the case recently. engaging experiences measures that already 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 and enhanced well-being capture significant land in residential spaces. value, including much- Source Savills Research needed affordable housing. savills.com/research 10 11
Savills Research We’re a dedicated team with an unrivalled reputation for producing well-informed and accurate analysis, research and commentary across all sectors of the UK property market. Emily Norton Mat Oakley Lucian Cook James Sparrow Richard Rees Head of Head of Head of CEO, Managing Director (UK), Rural Research Commercial Research Residential Research UK & Europe Development Services 020 7016 3786 020 7409 8781 020 7016 3837 020 7409 8854 020 7499 8644 emily.norton@savills.com moakley@savills.com lcook@savills.com jsparrow@savills.co.uk rrees@savills.com Andrew Harle Justin Marking James Gulliford Peter Allen Head of UK Rural Head of Head of Head of Operational 01904 756 312 Global Residential UK Investment Capital Markets aharle@savills.co.uk 020 7499 8644 020 7409 8711 020 7499 8644 jmarking@savills.com jgulliford@savills.co.uk pallen@savills.com Savills plc: Savills plc is a global real estate services provider listed on the London Stock Exchange. We have an international network of more than 600 offi ces and associates throughout the Americas, the UK, continental Europe, Asia Pacifi c, Africa and the Middle East, offering a broad range of specialist advisory, management and transactional services to clients all over the world. This report is for general informative purposes only. It may not be published, reproduced or quoted in part or in whole, nor may it be used as a basis for any contract, prospectus, agreement or other document without prior consent. While every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, Savills accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from its use. The content is strictly copyright and reproduction of the whole or part of it in any form is prohibited without written permission from Savills Research.
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