Advanced Packaging Trends in this Era of Digital New Age - From Technologies to Markets
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From Technologies to Markets
Advanced
Packaging Trends
in this Era of
Digital New Age
Market Briefing
23-April-2019
Santosh KUMAR
Director & Principal Analyst | kumar@yole.fr
Favier SHOO
Technology & Market Analyst | shoo@yole.fr
© 2019
MARKET-APPLICATION ROADMAP DRIVEN BY MEGA TRENDS
≤ 2018 : Technology Benchmark 2019 - 2030 : MEGA TRENDS for Digital New Age
COMPUTING COMPUTING
IO Counts IO Counts
(X)PU / FPGA + (X)PU / FPGA +
Memories (HBM) Memories (HBM)
10000 Large 10000 MOBILE Large
Logics/Memories Logics/Memories
MOBILE GPU, CPU GPU, CPU
CPU + CPU +
Memories Memories
WIRELESS
APU APU
DRAM DRAM
1000 1000
WIRELESS
Big Data
BB BB
PMIC PMIC
100 RF 100 RF Al, Smart
MEMS MEMS
Codec
Display
Codec
Display 5G
WiFi WiFi
Drivers Drivers IoT
2x2 10x10 20x20 50x50 >>50x50 2x2 10x10 20x20 50x50 >>50x50
Package Size (mm) Package Size (mm)
Only major trends/markets are considered
2019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019 2
DIGITAL NEW AGE: NEW TRENDS
Disruptive Technology
Motion sensing
Olfactometry Driver-less
HD Voice
Augmented
Imaging Processing human
Audio
Hyper
Data Center Robot home
Next-gen
assistant
Holographic
Smartphone interaction
Virtual with AI
assistant
Smartphone Smartwatch
with AI
Mobile
Smelling
AI
TRENDS CLOUD EDGE SPECIALIZATION
PC Mobile Smart Robotics Human Augmentation
1990 1995 2000 2006 2010 2014 2017 2020 2030 2040
2019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019 3
TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP: FROM NANO-SCALE TO MICRO-SCALE..
2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
22nm 14nm 10nm 7nm
Advanced Nodes*
28nm 14nm 10nm 7nm 5nm 3nm
20nm 16nm 10nm 7nm 6nm 5nm 3nm
20nm 14nm (licensed) Stopped
Assumed
Moore’s Law
16/14nm 10nm 7nm 5nm 3nm
Die to Substrate
200 to 150 μm 150 to 80 μm 60 to 40 μm
PACKAGING MARKET GROWTH
2014 2023
Advanced Packaging
$84 B
Conventional Packaging
$53 B
Global Packaging
2019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019 5
CONSUMER MARKET OVERVIEW: TOTAL UNITS IN 2018
IoT
ENTERTAINMENT 3%
17%
530
90
COMPUTING
258 9%
105
MOBILE
68%
3 Billion Units
WEARABLES
3%
2066
2019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019 6
APPLICATION PROCESSOR ENGINE (APE) - TRENDS IN SMARTPHONES
Processor packaging thickness*
FCCSP FCCSP
MCeP FCCSP
600 FC CSP
500 MCeP
MCeP
?
400
Fan-Out Fan-Out? Fan-Out?
ePLP-PoP
300 inFO-PoP inFO-PoP inFO-PoP
200
2015 2016 2017 2018 ≥2019
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FAN-OUT APPLICATIONS
Orange: Devices that can be found in Green: Devices that could be found Grey: Devices that will likely remain on WLCSP or
FOWLP packages today in the future in FOWLP flip-chip package or move to 3DIC or Embedded
die
Apple iPhone 7 (2016)
A10 APE – InFO package (TSMC) Applications out of mobile market
Apple iPhone 8 and X (2017)
A11 APE – InFO package (TSMC) Bosch MRR1Plus Radar (2015)
Infineon RASIC™ (77GHz RADAR System
Apple iPhone XS and XR (2018) IC Chipset) – eWLB Package
A12 APE – InFO package (TSMC)
Continental ARS400 Radar (2015)
NXP MR2001 (77GHz multichannel
RADAR) – RCP Package
BK Ultrasound Sonic Window (2015)
Multichip Module – eWLB Package Amkor Portugal
(Nanium)
NXP SCM-iMX6Q (2017)
APE, PMIC and Flash memory – Fan-Out PoP
Samsung Galaxy S7 (2016) (Nepes)
Qualcomm Audio Codec
WCD9335 – eWLB package by Samsung Exynos 9110 ePLP (2018)
Amkor Portugal (Nanium) or JCET APE, PMIC– FOPLP (SEMCO)
(STATS ChipPAC)
2019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019 8
FAN-OUT PACKAGING EVOLUTION
A long and volatile journey yet history is still in the making…
Chip-First Early Fan-Out Activities Chip-First Chip-Last Recent Fan-Out Inflection Possible Scenario
Face-Down (long history, high volume) Face-Up Fan-Out Creation of many new technology and IP
Fan-Out Fan-Out
HD HD
FOWLP
FOPLP
FOWLP FOPLP
vs
Milestone
M-Series made
creation Achieved FOPLP
eWLB RCP possible
licensing licensing
RCP eWLB and first and first RDL-First InFO InFO first ePLP first 1 new player in HD FO
creation creation volume volume R&D creation volume volume Cost Pressure in Core FO
≤2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
HD FO
vs
Core FO
vs
2019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019 9
FAN-OUT MARKET: BUSINESS MODEL EVOLUTION
OSAT Foundry IDM
2015 2017 2019 2024
10%
19%
6% $3,864 M*
28% CAGR +19%
35% $1,584 M* 71%
CAGR +23%
$847 M*
65%
65%
CAGR +51%
$244 M*
100%
OSAT only Foundry Impact IDM Entry Foundry vs IDM
*Total Market Value based on revenue
2019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019 10Advanced RF SiP Trends
for Cellphones
© 2019CELLULAR TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT
From 2G to 5G: Less than a 30 year journey
Other standards from IEEE family
including WiMAX and iBurst
TDD-
CDMA2000 EV-DO Rev LTE-
CDMA CDMA2000 1xRTT 1xEV-DO A/B/C TDD-LTE Advanced LTE-A
5G sub-6GHz 5G mmWave
TD-SCDMA TD-HSPA Pro
GSM GPRS EDGE TD-CDMA FDD-
FDD-LTE LTE-
WCDMA HSPA HSPA+ Advanced
2G 2.5G 2.75G/Pre-3G 3G 3.5G 3.9G/Pre-4G 4G 4.5G Pre-5G 5G
Ideal conditions, theoretically possible Deployment in reality, upper limit observed
1992 1997 2001 2007 2010 2013 2018 2020
It takes around 10 years between two cellular generations, including a long transition phase with intermediate technologies.
2019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019 12APPLICATION MAPPING
Cloud Computing
Autonomous Vehicle
Frequency(GHz)
Advanced AI assistant Medical Robot
5G use cases
extend far Wireless VR
Robotic Service
beyond the
mobile phone,
from IoT to
autonomous AR
Drone Delivery
vehicles, creating Real-time Translation
New Gaming Content
new challenges
for the network Smart City
in terms of data 360° Video Telepresence
Industrial Automation
rate and latency 4K video streaming
Smart Grid
agility. 2025
Connected 2024
Asset Tracking
Agriculture 2023
Wearable
2022
Port Management
Connected Home 2021
2020
2019
Remote Surveillance
2018
Shared Utilities
2017
2019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019 13RF FRONT-END COMPONENTS
RFFE is a sophisticated set of technologies and components situated between the modem and the antenna, and is
responsible for physically transmitting and receiving information over the air.
Filters/ Duplexers PA LNA Switches RF transceiver Antenna Passives
PAMiD X X X X X
PAD X X X
RxDM X X X X
ASM X X
Antennaplexers
Cellular (multiplexer) X X
LMM (Low noise amplifier -
X X
multiplexer module)
MMMB PA (Multi-Mode,
X X
Multi-Band Power Amplifier)
mmWave FEM X X X
WiFi FEM X X X X
Connectivity
WiGiG FEM X X X
2019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019 14INSIDE RF SIP
passives HB BAW filters MB BAW filters
SAW filters Switches LNA
• SiP reach high
level of
integration and Switches
accommodate
heterogeneous
technology
from III-V
compound
semiconductor
to Silicon ICs
through
specialty
MEM’s acoustic
resonator
PAs SKY78140
Skyworks RxDM
AFEM-8072 LNA
Avago MHB PAMiD
2019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019 15RF CONTENT EVOLUTION IN MOBILE PHONE
Dual connectivity
4x4 MIMO
In every RF content – relative scale
cellular Carrier Aggregation
generation Ultra high band
evolution Wi-Fi 2x2 MIMO
leads to new Carrier Aggregation
High band
technology
and additional Diversity
RF content.
2019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019 16MOBILE BROADBAND RF FRONT-END EVOLUTION
Disruption
mmWave module mmWave module
UHB module UHB module
RF Front-End NR band dual UHB module
continues to evolve. connectivity
First step is merging
high and mid bands,
densification and
More densification
continuous support for HB module HB+MB module HB+MB module HB+MB module
More complexity
Same technology
carrier aggregation.
New Radio bands to be Densification More CA
integrated into ultra
high band module with Band refarming
dual connectivity. MB module
Finally, mmWave should
come on top of that
beyond 2020.
LB module LB module LB module LB module
600 MHz inclusion Band refarming
2017 2018 2019 > 2020
2019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019 17MOBILE RF FEM PACKAGE TREND
Need disruptive innovation
in packaging
2G (GSM) 3G(WCDMA) 4G (LTE) 5G sub 6GHz 5G mmWave Future
direction ??
Highly integrated SiP
Antenna outside phone body Antenna “on phone case” Antenna on flex PCB Antenna in/on package
35
Discrete PA pkg. Single-side SiP Double-side SiP Enhanced double-side SiP
30
25
Level of integration
20
15
Frequency bands
10
Discrete pkg
3-5 FEM 5-7 FEM 7-9 FEM PA + Antenna + RFIC+
No FEM, Usually 1 FEM (Tx,Rx) PA + FEM PA + FEM integration PA + Antenna + RFIC+ FEM + Modem
Discrete PA Discrete PA still main integration FEM+ integration integration
2008 2013 2019 2020 2022 &
beyond
2019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019 18TECHNOLOGY TOOLBOX FOR RF SiP FOR 5G MOBILE
Double side
BGA assembly
Double side
High accuracy , mold
high speed pick
& place
Embedded
active &
passives
Packaging Compression
Molding
innovations
needed at
various levels
Conformal &
compartmental
Low loss shielding
materials
Antenna in Thin substrate,
package fine L/S
integration Miniaturized
passive
components
2019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019 19ANTENNA IN PACKAGE (AIP) SOLUTIONS
Flip chip
Source: ASE
Various
solutions are
proposed for
integrating
antenna element
AiP Fan-out
with RF
components for
5G mobile Source: TSMC
communication
Integrate Patch antenna array & Yagi-Uda
antennas in a package.
PoP type Source: JECT/ STATSChipPAC
• Low Dk/Df materials for better signal
integrity.
2019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019 20ASSEMBLY / PACKAGING MARKET FOR RF SiP FOR MOBILE
Included in Components available
Cap wafer RDL/
market forecast as SMT components in TSV Bumping Dicing
SiP assembly / Flip-chip bonding UBM
Wafer level BAW filters SAW filters Filters / Switches / IPDs
Assembly of Prior to SiP
various RF assembly
components in Assembly of RF
SiPs basically components
consists of 2
processes:
wafer level Components available as
assembly & SiP Wafer Wafer
bare dies (in wafer form) Inspection
level assembly in SiP assembly / wire-
grinding dicing
bond process
Included in SiP level
SMT Wire bond Molding Shielding BGA/LGA Test
market forecast
2019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019 21TOTAL ASSEMBLY/PACKAGING MARKET FORECAST FOR RF SiP IN MOBILE
CAGR2017-2020 ~11%
WLP
8%
The share of
WLP for RF
components
2023
assembly prior ($5.3B)
to SiP assembly
will decrease
from 9% in
2017 to 8% in
2023
SiP
92%
2019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019 22RF FEM MARKET FORECAST
By share of various RF FEMs SiP (in $M)
WiGig FEM
WiFi FEM WiGig FEM
WiFi FEM
PAMiD
PAMiD
mmW FEM
PAMiD market MMMB PA
share by LMM MMMB PA
2018 2023
revenue will LMM ($4.9B)
antennaplexers ( $3.07B)
increase from (multiplexer)
23% in 2018 to antennaplexers
ASM (multiplexer)
39% in 2023. (switchplexer)
PAM
Rx DM PAM
ASM (switchplexer)
Rx DM
2019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019 23Automotive Packaging
TrendHOW SIGNIFICANT IS THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY?
x2
$2.3T
Two industries,
both controlled
by giant $1.2T
companies with
~$250B in
revenue
Automotive electronics
$142B
$3.7B
Automotive packaging
≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ $250B
25THE TWO CURRENT BIG TRENDS FOR VEHICLES
Automated vehicles sold
• ~1 - 2Mu in 2022
Automation
• ~5Mu in 2027 (Level
3*)
Thermal vehicles
Impact of Non-thermal vehicles sold
electrification
should be • ~14Mu in 2022
limited in the EV/HEV/hybrids Electrification**
next 5 years • ~25 - 30Mu in 2027
but, at long
term, the story
is different.
Automation 2017 A 3rd trend will appear 2027 * Level 3 = hands-off / ** Includes hybrids
guides
innovation. soon together with the
94Mu 105Mu
other two: More
vehicles vehicles
connectivity
2019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019 26MORE AUTONOMY
Potential evolution of autonomous car sales by level of automation
Vehicle Level 0 Vehicle Level 1 Vehicle Level 2 Vehicle Level 3 Vehicle Level 4 Vehicle Level 5 Vehicle On Demand
3 4 5
Car sales (Munits)
2
0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050
By 2045, more than 70% of all vehicles sold will integrate autonomous capabilities!
2019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019 27AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES - THE DISRUPTION CASE
Two distinctive paths for autonomous vehicle
Where?
ADAS vehicle Autonomous
driving
Both strategies
end up at the
same place –
Autonomous
driving
Some players may want
to change side Robotic
vehicle
Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 How?
2019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019 28MAIN TREND 3: CONNECTIVITY
• Together with more autonomy and 5G future deployment, a 3rd main trend will appear: More connectivity in the car
• Connecting the car both internally and externally will become more and more important
• Numerous electronics-based applications will develop
Source: Bosch Connecting Internally
• For infotainment onboard:
• Wifi, streaming, etc…
• In-cabin sensors
• Sensor connection of the vehicle
Source: Bosch
Connecting Externally
• Connecting to other vehicles for safety and autonomous driving
• Connecting to external facilities
• Development aligned with 5G trend
2019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019 29MICROELECTRONICS IN AUTOMOTIVE
Different electronics devices family MOSFET, IGBTs, DC-
DC convertor, GaN
HEMT etc.
Power
Screen,ToF conversion
sensor RADAR, LiDAR, CIS,
ADAS
Display sensors
Infrared Imager.
Group Accelerometers Humidity sensor
of
Antenna, WiFi, Connectivity devices Gyroscope Pressure sensor
Modules /
MEMS &
Switch, GPS, sensors
Telematics Microphones Micro bolometer
FEM
Micromirror IMUs
Magnetometer Ultrasonic
Processing
Lighting
& Storage
CPU/GPU, Memory, Front light, Rear light,
ECU, MCUs Interior lighting, etc
2019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019 30GENERAL TRENDS IN AUTOMOTIVE PACKAGING
Reliability
Requirements
Power
Power density
Complexity of Integration
Data processing
Cost
Defects
Foot Print
Years
2019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019 31ADAS COMPUTING HARDWARE TREND AP
ACC: Automatic Cruise Control ACC
Functionalities LKA: Lane Keeping Assist
AEB: Advanced Emergency Braking
CTA: Cross Traffic Alert
DM: Driver Monitoring
HP: Highway Pilot
Level 5
TJA: Traffic Jam Assist HP
AP: Auto Pilot ACC
PA: Park Assist LKA TJA PA
ACC Level 4 AEB DM TJA
Level 3 LKA TJA PA
ACC AEB DM TJA
LKA TJA PA
ACC Level 2 AEB DM TJA
LKA TJA PA
Level 1
Ultrasonic
Radar Fusion Fusion
Fusion Fusion
Forward Camera
Surround Camera
LiDAR
Driver Camera
2019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019 32TREND FOR HARDWARE FOR INFOTAINMENT
From MCU to fusion platform
• Instead of having multiple processing die for each infotainment application, the goal now is to merge all the
computing on a SoC. For upper ADAS level 3 to 5 infotainment system might take advantage of the GPU build in for
ADAS. Infotainment that require deep learning processing will come with this higher ADAS level cars. Two scenarios
could be possible:
Intelligence
Utilization of Fusion platform
the existing for both
resources
provided by
?
the
computing
platform used
for safety and
autonomy + Fusion
platform for
ADAS
One SoC for
Single SoC infotainment
Multi chips (MCUs)
Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5 ADAS level
2019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019 33EXAMPLE OF ADAS COMPUTING HARDWARE
Fusion Platform – NVidia
Drive PX Xavier Fusion Platform –
Renesas R-CAR H3
VP – Intel Mobileye
FPGA – Xilinx ZYNQ
EyeQ5
2019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019 34EXAMPLE OF SoC PLATFORMS FOR INFOTAINMENT USING AI
Company Product Computing Application
Arm® Cortex®-A57 Cortex®-A53
R-Car H3 Infotainment using AI
Quad
Arm® Cortex®-R7 Dual lockstep
-
Intel® GO™ Platform Infotainment using AI
for In-Vehicle Experiences
Snapdragon 820 Custom 64-bit Kryo quad-core SoC
Automotive Platform Infotainment using AI
14nm FinFET
MAC57D5xx MCU family Arm-based multi-core platform
Cortex-A5/ Cortex-M4/Cortex-MO+ Infotainment using AI
2019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019 35CONCLUSION
• Advanced Packaging is viewed as the key solution to address the functional challenge and bridge the scale-gap
between die and to board.
• Currently, key players from different business models have Fan-Out packaging solutions with a strong emphasis
on cost and performance trade-off between Panel-level vs Wafer-level processing.
• The RF FEM SiP assembly market was $2.5B & $3.0B in 2017 & 2018 respectively and will have a CAGR of 11%
to reach $4.9B in 2023.
• 5G sub 6GHz require incremental innovation in packaging with small BOM increase while mmWave require
disruptive innovation. Antenna technology and placement is one of the most critical challenges for 5G
semiconductor systems.
• Automotive key trend: electrification, automation, infotainment. Hardware requirements for computing for
ADAS, infotainment will drive adoption of advanced packaging in automotive
2019 Symposium on Advanced Packaging & System Integration Technology | Powered by Yole Développement & Hosted by NCAP China | www.yole.fr | ©2019 36You can also read
