A Space Solar Power Industry for $2 Billion or Your Money Back - An Alternate Approach to SSP Development Al Globus ISDC 2012, Washington, DC

A Space Solar Power Industry
        for $2 Billion
    or Your Money Back

     An Alternate Approach to SSP Development

                      Al Globus
              ISDC 2012, Washington, DC

The Short Story
• Develop an industry, not just execute missions
• Use the $2 billion for prizes
• Target 10 MW class SSP systems
• Structure the prizes to reward multiple satellites
  by multiple companies
• Payout only for power delivered to paying
  customers
• If no one delivers with a set time, return the
  money

Space Solar Power
• Moderate technical risk
• Zero market risk: current global electrical use 2 TW
   – $0.03-0.15/kwh for conventional power to the U.S. grid
   – $0.34-0.38/kwh for peak or subsidized ‘green’ power in some advanced nations.
   – Up to $0.50/kwh or more for diesel power to remote locations

• High price risk in the short and medium term

• Huge payoff
   –   Essentially unlimited electric power for billions of years
   –   Very clean and green
   –   Enormous boost to space development
         • High launch volume leads to low cost

• SSP similar to fusion, except much easier
   – Fusion funding is ~$400 million/yr, $10s of billions total
   – Pay for this SSP proposal in five years

Current SSP Development
• Japan $20 billion program
  – 10MW plant 2020
  – 1GW plant 2030

• PG&E has contract with Solaren
  – 200 MW SSP plant start in 2016

• NASA funded $100,000 study this year
• EADS/Astrium laser power transmission
• Discussions in China and India

Other Prizes
• $10 million Ansari X-Prize jump started sub-orbital
  tourism
• DARPA Grand Challenge spurred important
  advances in driverless cars
• $30 million Google Lunar X Prize spurred
  substantial private development of robots for the
  lunar surface
• $21 billion SSP prize proposed by this author
  – Match projected cost of Japanese traditional effort
  – Aimed at GW scale SSP satellites

Prize Properties
• If objective is not reached, money is returned
• Surprising approaches are sometimes developed
   – X-Prize winning SpaceShipOne folds in half for reentry

• Multiplier: far more is spent chasing the prize than the pot
   – $30 million spent winning Ansari X-Prize Entry ($10 million pot)
   – Losing entries represent additional effort
       • If an industry develops, losing entries have trained up personnel

• This prize
   – like the Ansari X-Prize, is intended to create an industry
   – Like the Google Lunar X Prize has multiple levels

Prize Target
• To size the prize, a target system is required
• The target system need not be correct, but must be
  representative of cost and power output
• Target system
   – Infra-red laser power beaming to reduce system size (factor >30K)
       • Must solve eye safety problem
   – Thin film solar cells attached to solar sail material
   – Fiber lasers spread across the sail
   – Estimated 100 g/m2 based on Ikaros solar sail
   – Falcon Heavy launch ($100 million)
       • 2-10% end-to-end efficiency (7-35 MW per launch)
   – $500M -$1B for development and operations of the first one
       • WAG – optimistic but not irrational
       • Second and subsequent systems much less expensive
       • John Mankins will have a better cost estimate “soon”

Target System Basis

Ikaros                  LaserMotive              Fiber lasers
Low mass power          Infra-red power beam     Spread heat
production (100 g/m2)   Reduce antenna size by   rejection over
                        30,000-120,000x          entire sail

Proposed SSP Prize
• Pays per kwh sold to existing electricity provider
   – Sale must be at near market prices to give incentive to use

• Three levels $1, $0.70, $0.30/kwh to develop successively
  less expensive power.
• No satellite may receive funds from more than one level
• To develop multiple vendors, at each level no more than 60%
  goes to first vendor, 30% to second, 10% to others. Each
  must use different approach and technology.

  • At 10MW, six years is required to win $600 million for first satellite

Administration
•   The $2 billion prize money must be placed in escrow so that successful
    competitors are guaranteed payment.
•   If none is claimed within 10 years, the money reverts to the sponsor.
    Whatever is not claimed within 20 years reverts to the sponsor. This
    provides sufficient time to win the prize but applies time pressure.
•   At 1% interest, $2 billion generates $20 million/yr for administration and
    pre-competitive R&D
•   The prize will require a board and support staff to:
     –   Register entries.
     –   Oversee a contract to develop hardware to independently measure the energy delivered to
         the ground.
     –   Determine the power actually delivered by contestants.
     –   Determine which entries may access each level.
     –   Determine the minimum price an entrant may charge when selling prize-eligible power.
     –   Award research grants.
     –   Administer open source software development

What Else Costs $2 Billion
• A little more than one shuttle flight
   – Over the life of the program shuttle flights cost $1.6 billion each

• Less than year of SLS/Orion development
• Less than 25% the cost of the James Webb Telescope
• One or two major Mars missions
• All of the these are worthy projects
   – None would begin to have the beneficial effect of a successful SSP
     industry.
   – Not even in the ball park
   – For example, a successful SSP would pay for thousands of launches per
     year, drastically driving down the cost for all other space activities.

Potential Sponsors
• Who could afford $2 billion?
• Many countries
  – Those with strong aerospace industries might
    limit entrants to national firms
  – Otherwise may require production in-country

• Some companies; e.g., Exon made $10.7
  billion profit in a single year
  – May want IP rights to successful entries

• A few individuals

Conclusion
• A successful SSP industry is worth significant risk
• Proposed prizes is intended to spark development
  of 10MW class SSP satellites
• Proposed prize would pay out $2 billion to nine
  satellites and three vendors at three prize levels:
  $1/kwh, $0.70/kwh, $0.30/kwh
• First winner could bring in $600 million in about six
  years, not counting sale of the energy to utility
• Intended to lead to the development of large
  numbers of much larger SSP systems to supply a
  significant fraction of Earth’s energy needs.

Dark
                   side of
                   sail

Fiber
lasers

                 Opening for
                 beam directing
                 hardware

         120 m