5G: a Platform for Systemic Transformation of Telecom Operators - GRUPPO TELECOM ITALIA Gabriele Elia @EliaGabriele ...
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GRUPPO TELECOM ITALIA Pisa , June 19th 2017 5G: a Platform for Systemic Transformation of Telecom Operators Gabriele Elia gabriele.elia@telecomitalia.it @EliaGabriele Technology Innovation - Technological Scouting, Trend Analysis & Future Center
Key Issues
• Il contesto competitivo
• La tecnologia: radio e core
• Radio: nuove frequenze più banda, MU MIMO, small cell, vRAN/Cloud Ran
• Core: Fibra, NFV e SDN, AI
• I terminali; ne parliamo a fine 2019? https://www.cnet.com/news/5g-network-wireless-phones-qualcomm-2019-are-coming-earlier-than-you-thought/
• La timeline dello standard, commerciale , frequenze
• Prima lo standard o prima i vertical? Un tentativo del 5G
• I trial nel mondo: USA, Asia ed EU e Italia
• I trial in Italia
• Alcune best practice: Bristol, Surrey…
• I player industriali: una gara a 4
• Impatto della connettività diffusa, del superamento di numero in oggetti non phones, con la complicazione del SW
• Softwarizzazione della rete: un Network OS e Anything As A Service?
• Google? Microsoft? Huawei?
5G: a Platform for Systemic Transformation of Telecom Operators
Gabriele Elia 2
The Context: Network Traffic Growth, The
Explosion of Video, Disruptions by
Digitalization, IoT, Big Data, AI
3
Data Traffic Growth, WW, 70% YoY
Source: Ericsson
Mobility
Report
5G: a Platform for Systemic Transformation of Telecom Operators
Gabriele Elia 4
Italy is similar … 2021 vs 2016 signs a x3 in Internet Traffic
Source: Cisco VNI
5G: a Platform for Systemic Transformation of Telecom Operators
Gabriele Elia 5
Video will be most part of Internet traffic: 80% at 2020
Quasi l’80% del traffico Internet al 2020 nel mondo sarà Video
Il traffico video crescerà di 4 volte tra 2015 e 2020, (CAGR di oltre il 30%)
5G: a Platform for Systemic Transformation of Telecom Operators
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2015–2020 Gabriele Elia 6
https://ec.europa.eu/digital-single-market/en/digital-scoreboard
Distruption from Digitalization … eg Advertising: Internet overtakes TV !!
5G: a Platform for Systemic Transformation of Telecom Operators
Gabriele Elia 7
And in Italy too ... Facebook and Google adv business
4
3,5
Italia 2017, «stime»
Internet 2.5Mdi€, 3
di cui FB+Google: 2 Mdi €! 2,5
"Internet"
TV: quasi 4Mdi €, stabile 2 FB e Google
TV
Carta: 1 Md € 1,5 Carta
http://www.nielsen.com/it/it/press-room/2017/the-
advertising-market-in-italy-in-2016.html 1
http://www.engage.it/eventi/advertising-online-un-
mercato-da-236-miliardi-nel-2016-in-crescita-del- 0,5
9/90759#XMtcPRr1OrR2KbEv.97
0
"Internet" FB e Google TV Carta
8
IoT “Every object will be connected”
Over 20 Billions will be the installed base of
connected devices in 2020 (GSMA)
M2M connections will grow from 780 Mln
in 2016 to 3.3 Bln by 2021 globally (CISCO
VNI)
CISCO VNI http://www.cisco.com/c/en/us/solutions/collateral/service-provider/visual-networking-index-vni/mobile-white-paper-c11-520862.html#MeasuringMobileIoT
GSMA http://www.gsma.com/globalmobiletrends
5G: a Platform for Systemic Transformation of Telecom Operators
Gabriele Elia 9
Big Data, AI, ML
https://whatsthebigdata.com/2016/10/17/visually-linking-ai-machine-learning-deep-learning-big-data-and-data-science/
https://www.capgemini-consulting.com/resource-file-access/resource/pdf/dti-ai-report.pdf
5G: a Platform for Systemic Transformation of Telecom Operators
Gabriele Elia 105G, the next wave of communication
technology
5G: a Platform for Systemic Transformation of Telecom Operators
Gabriele Elia 115G The Next Wave of Communication Technology
5G: a Platform for Systemic Transformation of Telecom Operators
Gabriele Elia 125G as a GPT - General Purpose Technology
• il 5G tra le cosiddette GPT (General Purpose Technologies) [*], alla pari di tecnologie che hanno condizionato lo
sviluppo economico worldwide (la stampa, le ferrovie, l’elettricità, Internet).
• Uno studio IHS (**) in collaborazione con Università americane prevede un contributo medio dell’ordine di 200 B$
all’anno alla crescita globale dell’economia nel periodo 2020-2035, pari a circa lo 0,2% della crescita annuale del PIL.
• Il valore cumulato è paragonabile al valore attuale del PIL della settima potenza industriale attuale (India).
• Ancora più impressionanti, nello studio citato, i dati sui volumi complessivi di transazioni economiche (global sales
activities) che si presume, nel 2035, saranno associate a tecnologie 5G, e pari a circa 12300 B$ (circa il 4% delle
transazioni economiche mondiali previste), distribuite in tutti i settori merceologici.
(*) https://ec.europa.eu/digital-singlemarket/en/news/5g-deploymentcould-bring-millions-jobs-andbillions-euros-benefits-study-finds
(**) Da “5GH Economy Impact” online https://www.qualcomm.com/media/documents/files/ihs-5geconomic-impact-study.pdf
5G: a Platform for Systemic Transformation of Telecom Operators
Gabriele Elia 135G : Performance target IMT-2020 – Raccomandation ITU-R M.2083-0
Started 2013 …
5G: a Platform for Systemic Transformation of Telecom Operators
Gabriele Elia 145G: usage scenarios and vertical industries
ENHANCED MOBILE
BROADBAND
Digital Life
3D Video,
4K, 8K screens AR/VR
Smart Home/ Work and play
Building in Cloud
Industry 4.0
Home Access
Mission Critical,
Smart City Public Safety
Smart Drive
Self Driving Car
MASSIVE MACHINE TYPE ULTRA RELIABLE AND LOW LATENCY
COMMUNICATION COMMUNICATIONS
5G: a Platform for Systemic Transformation of Telecom Operators
Gabriele Elia 15TIM Today: Pretty Good Anyway … 1 Gbps and 10 msec Latency ….
Quality & Security
only on app level Devices per km2
1,000s with NB IoT
Frequency5G … the next step High Quality and Security
Network based
Frequencies Network Slicing
100’s MHz, Differentiated services
New Radio, mmWave
Multimedia and Speed
10x LTE Device per km2
UHD, 8K, Immersive Video, Milions
Cloud Computing
Relay Devices Batteries
Always maximum coverage durations
10 years and more
Latenza Cells
1/10 LTE, few ms … laLamiglior
migliorsintesi
sintesitecnologica
tecnologica1000’s Small Cells
5G: a Platform for Systemic Transformation of Telecom Operators
Gabriele Elia 17Fast means FAST!!!
On Sunday, telecom
operator etisalat
announced its fastest
5G live trial reaching
71Gbps, setting a global
record in the industry.
the live trial of a
remarkable download
speed of over 70Gbps
achieved over a 'pre-
commercial' 5G site,
operating over e-band
using 2Ghz of
bandwidth.
Oltre 30 Bits per Hertz
https://www.khaleejtimes.com/technology/etisalat-records-worlds-fastest-live-trial-of-5g
5G: a Platform for Systemic Transformation of Telecom Operators
Gabriele Elia 18How to get there?
• NR (New Radio)
• Nuove frequenze
• Efficienza spettrale aumentata
• MIMO e Beam Forming
• Advanced Small Cell, Cell Border Management
• Core Network
• Flat network, MultiRat
• Mobile SDN
5G: a Platform for Systemic Transformation of Telecom Operators
Gabriele Elia 195G: Frequenze
Larghezza di banda
Dimensione della cella
Frequenze
Servizi
… la miglior sintesi tecnologica
5G: a Platform for Systemic Transformation of Telecom Operators
W per il 5G
(*) http://www.corrierecomunicazioni.it/digital/48961_frequenze-5g-in-bilancio-25-mld-dall-asta-ma-e-giallo-sui- Gabriele Elia 20
costi.htm5G NR: Antenne Attive
Elevation (Vertical)
Beamforming
Tecniche di beamforming
• Multi User
• Full Dimensional/3D
• Massive MIMO
Sistemi Smart Antenna
Azimuth (Horizontal)
Beamforming • Antenna a schiera con
centinaia di elementi radianti
FD-MIMO e sistemi attivi
eNB
• Crescono
• Capacità
Elevation • Efficienza spettrale
Beamforming
Onde millimetriche (mmWaves)
• Alte frequenze radio
• Elevate larghezze di banda Azimuth
Beamforming
5G: a Platform for Systemic Transformation of Telecom Operators
Gabriele Elia 215G NR e Core: Cloud/Virtual RAN
Oggi Domani
Cloud/Virtual-RAN
Base Station
Centralizzare
Coordinare
Virtualizzare Virtual Base Station Cluster
5G: a Platform for Systemic Transformation of Telecom Operators
Gabriele Elia 225G NR e Core: Network Slicing come una delle tecnologia più innovative
Sicurezza
nativa dedicata
Slice come aggregato di funzioni di rete
Selezione dinamica delle slice per ciascuna componente di traffico
Accesso contamporaneo a più slice (orchestrazione)
… la miglior sintesi tecnologica
5G: a Platform for Systemic Transformation of Telecom Operators
Gabriele Elia 23Network Slicing: andare oltre il modello Internet?
SLICE 1 SLICE 2 SLICE 3
(Latency) (Reliability) (Throughput)
28 © 2017 Nokia 24http://www.3gpp.org/images/articleimages/ongoing_releases_900px.JPG
25
http://www.itu.int/en/ITU-R/study-groups/rsg5/rwp5d/imt-2020/Documents/S02-1_3GPP%20IMT-2020.pdfSeems small but … 500 milions 5G Devices Worldwide in 2022
26Trials around the world
KT
DoCoMo
CMCC
Europe
Italia 3.6GHz, trials 2017
Commercialization plans (tentative)
USA 28GHz USA 2017+
28GHz Korea 2018+
3.5GHz Europe 2019+
3.5GHz China 2020
4.5GHz Japan 2020
27The path to 5G: projects and trial for Torino 5G; San Marino; MISE–5G IA Bari/Matera
• Torino first 5G town (announced April 2017)
• San Marino first european country
• Government tender: Bari Matera
TORINO first live demos in end 2017 (Torino) and 1Q2018
SAN MARINO
Security enhancements to support citizen and
Public safety
assist police, using wearable cam, sensors,
drones.
Virtual Reality City Tour with guides,
Bari eTourism
multimedia info point with real time and HD
A PARTNERSHIP APPROACH Matera
infotainment contents
• Frequency: 43 band(3.7-3.8 GHz
• Collaboration: TIM, Fastweb, Huawei Smart City Environment monitoring and city sensors data
• More than 50 ecosystem partners on the territory collection in a Smart City Control Room
• Timeframe: 2017-2020
Traffic manag. Sensors and applications to intelligently
• Full 5G coverage for the two cities by 2019 to test the new technology based on local needs manage in/out traffic and parking lots
• smart city, public safety, enviromental monitoring, industry 4.0, ehealth , media education and virtual
reality, automotive, street safety; logistic (Bari port) and culture (Matera) eHealth Remote monitoring and remote assistance of
• Bari will be one of the first 4.0 ports in Italy, allowing better management of logistics and transport patients
• In Matera, the 2019 European capital of culture, the aim will be to produce a 3D virtualisation and
reconstruction of archaeological sites and museums Smart retail Vertical solution for fashion brands (i.e.
Internet of Products)
5G: a Platform for Systemic Transformation of Telecom Operators
Gabriele Elia 28The systemic impact of SW and AI in the
Network
29“Why Software Is Eating the World”
Marc Andreessen coined his famous sentence
“Why Software Is Eating the World” in The Wall
Street Journal six years ago.
Today, the idea that “every company needs to
become a software company” is considered almost
unavoidable to be efficient, effective and able to
compete in such a dynamic market.
Since 2007 concepts such as Programmable
networks and Software networking were discussed
in Research…
…Software is eating the Telecoms
5G: a Platform for Systemic Transformation of Telecom Operators
Gabriele Elia 30Sofwarization at the core of 5G
Virtualizzazione, SDN, Open Source, Automazione con AI …
31…towards a new unifying service paradigm: X-as-a-Service
• With Softwarization, future infrastructures (e.g., 5G) will assume the form of extended and
distributed execution and communication environments, based on a “continuum” of virtual functions
and resources
• “X-as-a-Service” paradigm is emerging:
• SDN Controllers, Virtual Network Functions (VNF) and end-Users’ services/applications can be all seen as “apps” under some generalized
assumptions.
• Services can be seen as “chains” of service components (e.g., software tasks) executed/run onto pools
of logical resources (e.g., VMs, Containers) interconnected via logical network links (e.g., VPN);
• concept of “network slice”;
• This will also imply the emergence of a new complexity: how managing and orchestrating
dynamically a sheer number of virtual components (from VNF to microservices).
5G: a Platform for Systemic Transformation of Telecom Operators
Gabriele Elia 32Cybersecurity
• Emergent security AI methods could offers the potential for (almost) real-time security threat detection and
defense: speed to access big data in real time and the ability to learn are the main key points.
• Example: MIT’s Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL) created a startup PatternEx to
develop an Artificial Intelligence system (called AI2) which combines analyst intuition with machine learning
and use big data to build an end-to-end active learning system for security.
• The system first scans the content with unsupervised
machine-learning techniques and then, at the end of
the day, presents its findings to human analysts;
• human analysts identify which events are actual
cyber attacks and which aren't. This feedback is then
incorporated into the machine learning system of
AI2 and is used the next day for analyzing new logs.
Source: http://thehackernews.com/2016/04/artificial-intelligence-cyber-security.html 5G: a Platform for Systemic Transformation of Telecom Operators
Gabriele Elia 33An end-to-end Operating System
Source: J. Doyle «Universal Laws and Architectures»
5G: a Platform for Systemic Transformation of Telecom Operators
Gabriele Elia 34Network OS, 5G OS – un esempio: Telenor and Cisco target telco innovators with
“Android for network infrastructure”
Oct 2017 –
Telenor has launched a new platform which it is billing as the Android operating system of network infrastructure.
WorkingGroupTwo aims to build an "innovation ecosystem" for the telecoms sector, allowing operators to open up their networks to
offer new services more quickly.
Service providers pay a single installation fee as well as a monthly rate. The system is integrated on a host network by WorkingGroupTwo
through the same standard interfaces which are used to host traditional MVNOs.
35Currently TLC is based on Four players … what’s next?
…and shift will continue from CAPEX (hw) to OPEX (sw)
Annual Revenue B$, 2015
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Ericsson Cisco Nokia Alu Huawei ZTE IBM Microsoft
5G: a Platform for Systemic Transformation of Telecom Operators
Gabriele Elia 36Network as a Service enables completly new (global) competitor
http://us6.campaign-
archive1.com/?u=e7ba52
423a4c879d0ae56cbae&i
d=dd44fa0458&e=70df74
0c80#mctoc3
5G: a Platform for Systemic Transformation of Telecom Operators
Gabriele Elia 37Can AT&T Retrain 100.000 people?
Read 1 - Fortune's Aaron Pressman has the story.
Read 2 - http://www.dallasnews.com/business/att/2016/02/15/att-tells-its-280000-workers-adapt-to-new-technology-or-else
5G: a Platform for Systemic Transformation of Telecom Operators
Gabriele Elia 38Software Positive Returns to Employee
Research by Jae Song of the Social Security administration and four colleagues found that most of the rise of
inequality in pay from 1978 to 2013 was because some companies were paying more than others — not because of
a wider gap between high-paid and low-paid workers within a company.
“Employees inside winning companies enjoy rising incomes and interesting cognitive challenges,” the Stanford
economist Nicholas Bloom, one of the co-authors of that paper, wrote recently in Harvard Business Review.
“Workers outside this charmed circle experience something quite different.”
5G: a Platform for Systemic Transformation of Telecom Operators
Gabriele Elia 39.. Thanks to Software Positive Returns to Scale World
A Positive Returns-to-Scale World
The most extreme example of this would be the software business, where a company can invest bottomless sums
in a piece of software, but then sell it to each additional customer for practically nothing.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/16/upshot/the-amazon-walmart-showdown-that-explains-the-modern-economy.html
5G: a Platform for Systemic Transformation of Telecom Operators
Gabriele Elia 40Last toughts:
“making meanings not techologies”,
“next industries and consumer transformation”,
415G and the Technology Substitution Trap, The Epiphany opportunity
5G: a Platform for Systemic Transformation of Telecom Operators
Gabriele Elia 42«Bristol IS OPEN»- Smart city strategy
City as a platform controlled in Sotfware
“Bristol is Open” – a joint venture between the University of Bristol and Bristol City Council. Bristol is Open is an
ecosystem with Industrial Partners, several Suppliers and Supporters.
Developments in SW, HW and
telecom networks creating an
The infrastructure is controlled in
internet of people and things.
Software – creating a Software
“Bristol is an open programmable city” Defined Network – based on the
Using data sensors, smart city OpenFlow standard.
technologies will be able to It uses Network Function
respond in real-time to everyday Virtualisation to make the
events including congestion, waste infrastructure super-fluid,
management, entertainment sliceable, and usable by many
events, e-democracy, energy different projects at once
supply and more. … a research and development
laboratory for urban change
5G: a Platform for Systemic Transformation of Telecom Operators
Source: http://www.bristolisopen.com/ Gabriele Elia 435G ad enbaler of digital tranformation
Once a vertical industry can safely assume that wireless
connectivity is “truly anywhere and anytime” and can be
guaranteed e.g. >99.999% of the time, the approach to system
design and operation changes fundamentally. This will
transfomr the current vertical industries into connected, fully
digital verticals.
Faster connectivity will allow consumer and
brands to interact more and more in real
time basis and while on the move
https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/uk/Documents/c
onsumer-business/deloitte-uk-consumer-review-digital-
predictions.pdf 5G: a Platform for Systemic Transformation of Telecom Operators 44
Gabriele Elia5G will not only reshape the wireless industry but industries around it, pretty much every
vertical of significance
5G will also be unique as the aggregate non-Phone devices will dominate phones for the first time globally. We will
have to figure out architectures, business models, and policies to deal with the consumer demand and
expectations.
5g-chetan-sharma-consulting
5G: a Platform for Systemic Transformation of Telecom Operators
Gabriele Elia 45Grazie
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