4Q 2020 Fund Commentary - Rondure Global Advisors
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4Q 2020 Fund Commentary 2020 ended with a fittingly dramatic quarter. Market-moving events transpiring one after another: the US Presidential election, China clamping down on its high-profile technology champions, COVID-19 vaccine approvals, and the resurgence of the pandemic. These shifts spurred wild swings in optimism and pessimism that caused an unusually severe rotation toward pandemic-era laggards and value- oriented pockets of the market. Meanwhile, most economies around the world outside of North Asia remained fragile, with low visibility for any sustained recovery in the real economy. Given that backdrop, perhaps the most prominent point of clarity for investors was the U.S. Federal Reserve’s commitment to keep benchmark interest rates low and maintain asset purchases for the foreseeable future, spurring equity markets higher. Initial Public Offerings, (IPO’s). of unprofitable companies and capital raising through Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPAC’s Please see definition below 1.) made headlines. Irrational exuberance in the financial markets was visible, with little regard for traditional valuation metrics. In this environment, we stayed focused on buying what we view as quality compounders (companies with competitive moats, risk-averse balance sheets, high returns on capital, able to generate economic value added) with a steadfast growth profile and underappreciated business fundamentals. We are satisfied with how our portfolio performed on the upside amidst an aggressive and speculative rally in Q4 2020. Rondure New World Fund On a stock-specific basis, the two greatest contributors to the account in 4Q20 were the same as the prior quarter: Li Ning Company Limited (2331 HK) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd (2330 TT). Together the duo generated 169 basis points (bps), (2), and 144(bps) of contribution, respectively. Taiwan Semiconductor has continued to benefit from the broad based upcycle in 5G, where demand from its largest clients has remained robust going into 2021. Nonetheless, we continue to cautiously monitor the potential for inventory overbuilds in the broader semiconductor space. Li Ning, for its part, saw a continued boost from better-than-expected results during China’s 11/11 holiday season and market share gains. The long-term margin upside story for Li Ning, which we have highlighted in the past, continues to be driven by increasing brand strength and efficiency gains on several fronts. The two largest individual detractors in the portfolio were Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (9988 HK) and Jumbo S.A. (BELA GA). Together the two detracted 42(bps) and 21(bps) from the account’s performance, respectively. The former has come under pressure after a botched IPO of its fintech arm (Ant Financial) and increasing anti-monopolistic scrutiny from Beijing. While we managed to rationalize some of our stake prior to these headwinds, we nonetheless caught some of the downside. We continue to monitor that situation and assess the impact of these events on the company. In the case of Jumbo S.A., a 1
second wave of COVID-19 resulted in another round of store closures and weak consumer spending. We exited this marginal position in favor of building up positions with what we believe are more attractive risk/reward profiles. On a sector basis, the account’s top contributors were Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary, adding 607(bps) and 438(bps) to the portfolio’s performance, respectively. The portfolio saw a boost from its Chinese beverages exposure. China Resources Beer Holdings Co. Ltd (291 HK) and Tsingtao Brewery Co., Ltd. Class H (168 HK) both announced sizeable margin gains in their most recent results despite the difficult economic backdrop. We remain confident of their ability to increase their profitability closer to industry peers as they increase premium products and rationalize costs. In Consumer Discretionary, the portfolio benefitted from another strong showing from the Chinese sportswear sector. Li Ning, as discussed earlier, was our biggest contributor. ANTA Sports Products Ltd (2020 HK) came in a close second, with the stock up 53% in the quarter. Both companies have made solid strides to trim excess inventory levels from the pandemic and we think we should enjoy a better demand environment in 2021. We believe both companies should benefit from the increasing propensity of young Chinese consumers to buy local brands. Our biggest laggards on a sector basis were Energy and Materials. In both cases, we remain underweight relative to the benchmark, although we continue to screen for companies in the space that fit our quality parameters. Within the Energy sector, Reliance Industries Limited (RIL IN) pulled back as energy demand remained subdued. We are glad to see Reliance continue to make strides to both pay off debt as its capex levels plummet and transform itself into a more consumer-orientated company. On the Materials side, TOA Paint (Thailand) Public Company Limited (TOA/F TB) continued to fight an uphill battle against further lockdowns and weak consumer spending. Nonetheless, we remain constructive on the company’s prospects as the leading decorative paints company in Thailand with growth tailwinds via its expansion into the broader ASEAN region, notably Indonesia and Vietnam. We remain cautiously optimistic about a demand recovery in 2021. In terms of country-based attribution, China was our greatest contributor in both absolute terms and relative to the benchmark, adding 656(bps) to the portfolio’s performance. We have already touched on the sectors and companies driving that performance above. Outside of China, India was our second-best contributor. While our positive contributors were broad based there, both Asian Paints Ltd. (APNT IN) and HDFC Asset Management Co. Ltd. (HDFCAMC IN) benefitted as the market sought out high-quality names whose businesses may come out of the pandemic in a stronger position. We are honing in on the Indian asset management industry. We believe the most reputable franchises will benefit from a long- term penetration story as Indian savings undergo increased financialization. Our basket of Indian Information Technology stocks also climbed, including HCL Technologies Limited (HLCT IN), Tata Consultancy Services Limited (TCS IN) and Tech Mahindra Limited (TECHM IN). We not only appreciate these companies for their high-quality metrics, trustworthy management teams and historically consistent dividends, but we also believe they will capitalize on long term trends to 5G and cloud 2
migration globally. We believe this should provide the solid earning visibility the Rondure team favors. We continue to mine that space for opportunities on a forward-looking basis. South Korea was the portfolio’s biggest detractor from performance on a relative basis to the benchmark. While we managed to outperform in absolute terms, our underweight to the market cost us some relative attribution, especially as a series of lower-quality names bounced. We did, however, manage to benefit from our large position in Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd (005930 KS), whose shares jumped 51% after management provided better-than-expected guidance for their memory chips business. Our thesis on Samsung is built on the company improving its corporate governance and the prospect of raising its dividend thanks to its cash-rich balance sheet. Outside of South Korea, we experienced a similar story in Thailand where our holdings lagged the broader rally in lower quality stocks. TOA Paint, as discussed above, was our largest detractor here. We took steps during the quarter to add some exposure to what we feel are a series of high-quality laggards in the market, including a hospital operator, Bumrungrad Hospital Public Co. Ltd. (BH/F TB), which underwent a difficult 2020 due to delayed healthcare expenditures and lower tourism levels. Rondure Overseas Fund On a stock-specific basis, the greatest contributors to the Fund in 4Q20 came from Mainfreight Limited (MFT NZ) and REA Group Ltd (REA AU). Mainfreight, a global logistics provider based out of New Zealand, surged after reporting better-than-expected results on the back of continued margin gains. Management also provided strong guidance going into 2021, with improvements expected across a majority of their regions. REA, the leading online property listings business in Australia, got a boost from increased listings and strong cost controls as the country’s housing market gradually recovers. The two largest individual detractors in the portfolio were in Germany and the United Kingdom: SAP SE (SAP GR) and boohoo group Plc (BOO LN). The former declined after pulling their medium-term guidance amid increasing concerns around the company’s competitiveness in its cloud-based services versus its multinational peers. Boohoo, on the other hand, faced a series of sustainability issues around their supply chain network. We took this opportunity to explore other opportunities in our universe and have since exited our position in the latter company. On a sector basis, the Fund’s greatest contributors to performance came from the two sectors where it has been historically overweight: Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples. On the former, Ferrari NV (RACE IM) and LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE (MC FP) both benefitted as the market sought out wide-moated companies that endured a tough 2020 but whose prospects for the years ahead remain quite strong in our opinion. Puma SE (PUM GR) climbed nearly 22% after a surprisingly resilient performance during the third quarter, which saw sales grow high single digits despite a difficult consumer environment. Longer term we remain constructive on the company’s ability to gain market share and increase its margin profile as growth in its APAC portfolio (including China) accelerates. In the Consumer Staples universe, our basket of European brewers and spirit companies, including Pernod 3
Ricard SA (RI FP) and Diageo plc (DGE LN), enjoyed a rally on hopes of a COVID vaccine will help normalize operations in the coming year. Our biggest sector laggard on a relative basis was Financials, where our underweight hurt us versus the benchmark. That said, those names owned in the Fund have fared well. They include Partners Group Holding AG (PGHN AG), a global private equity firm, and Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd (388 HK). Both have continued to ride the wave of persistently low interest rates and high liquidity while maintaining durable franchises that pay out relatively attractive dividends. Hong Kong Exchanges has gotten an added boost from an increasing number of US-listed Chinese companies seeking secondary offerings closer to their home market. In terms of country-based attribution, the highlights for the quarter came from New Zealand and the Netherlands. Mainfreight’s 64% rise during the quarter drove the performance in New Zealand for reasons highlighted above. Meanwhile, the Netherlands got a boost from our positions in Heineken NV (HEIA NA) and ASML Holding NV (ASML NA). Heineken, like our other European brewery stocks, benefitted from news of a vaccine while ASML moved higher on the bullish outlook of its largest semiconductor clients. While we have been pleased with our semiconductor exposure across both funds, we continue to cautiously eye the space for elevated expectations. That aside, we remain constructive on the long-term prospects of ASML and view the company’s wide moat as making it a solid process fit for the long term. Japan and the United Kingdom were the portfolio’s largest detractors from performance on a relative basis as a series of lower-quality bank holding, commodity production, and large conglomerate stocks bounced off their 2020 lows as vaccine euphoria swept the market. At the same time, some of the Fund’s largest Consumer weights cooled down in Q4 following a terrific run during the year. This includes names like Unicharm Corporation (8113 JP), the market-leading Japanese diaper producer with a growing presence across emerging Asia. The company has continued to benefit from its geographical expansion to China and an increasing mix shift toward premium products. Conclusion and Outlook 2020 is now behind us, yet the pandemic will no doubt have lasting effects. The political divide has never been more intense as governments around the world still struggle to restore economic stability while scrambling to effectively distribute the vaccines. It is quite possible that more stimulus and fiscal spending are in the cards for the United States after a definitive election outcome, which has so far been propelling the markets even higher. The combination of historically low interest rates and acceleration of the new economy have pushed up multiples in certain stocks and industries to aggressive levels. We fear the markets may be detached from common-sense valuations. The pandemic appears to have pulled forward demand in certain markets to unsustainable levels. Hence, we have been reluctant to pile on to the crowded trades. A more stringent regulatory environment for dominant technology monopolies in large markets such as the United States and China is another risk we are mindful of. 4
What are the implications for emerging markets in 2021? To the extent that the US dollar continues to weaken, we see that as a positive for emerging markets and broad-based global growth. From a stock- picking perspective, our models suggest a better risk/reward setup in sectors that are poised for recovery from COVID-19 in the coming year. We are sticking to our investment discipline around strong balance sheets, stable cash flows, and wide competitive moats (3). We feel confident that these sorts of companies can overcome any short-term challenges and even gain market share from the upheaval. We continue to be well diversified across countries, which feels like the right position to us from a risk mitigation standpoint. We believe that our current positioning of owning reasonably priced businesses for a broader emerging market recovery scenario in this liquidity environment makes sense. We hope you and your families are staying safe. We appreciate your continued confidence in Rondure Global Advisors. Inception date for both funds: 5/1/17. Expense ratios as of prospectus dated 08/31/2020 are: RNWOX: 1.72% Gross / 1.35% Net, RNWIX: 1.43% Gross / 1.10% Net. Expense ratios as of prospectus dated 08/31/2020 are: ROSOX: 2.06% Gross / 1.10% Net, ROSIX: 1.73% Gross / 0.85% Net. Above Total Returns are as of December 31, 2020. Performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and investment returns and principal value of the Fund will fluctuate so that shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Current performance may be higher or lower than the performance quoted. For the most current month-end performance data please visit www.rondureglobal.com. The Advisor has contractually agreed to waive and/or reimburse fees or expenses through at least August 31, 2021. Rondure Funds will deduct a 2.00% redemption fee on Fund shares held 60 days or less. Performance data does not reflect the deduction of fees, including sales charges, or the taxes you would pay on fund distributions or the redemption of fund shares. Fees and taxes, if reflected, would reduce the performance quoted. For more complete information including charges, risks and expenses, read the prospectus carefully. Diversification does not eliminate the risk of experiencing investment loss. 5
The Advisor has contractually agreed to waive and/or reimburse fees or expenses through at least August 31, 2021. An investor should consider investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses carefully before investing. Visit www.rondureglobal.com to obtain a Rondure Funds Prospectus, which contain this and other information, or call 1.855.775.3337. Read the prospectus carefully before investing. The objective of all Rondure Funds is long-term growth of capital. RISKS: Investing in foreign securities entails special risks, such as currency fluctuations and political uncertainties, which are described in more detail in the prospectus. Investments in emerging and frontier markets are subject to the same risks as other foreign securities and may be subject to greater risks than investments in foreign countries with more established economies and securities markets. Diversification does not eliminate the risk of experiencing investment loses. The MSCI EAFE Index is designed to represent the performance of large and mid-cap securities across 21 developed markets, including countries in Europe, Australasia and the Far East, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is designed to represent the performance of large and mid- cap securities across 26 Emerging Markets (EM) countries. You cannot invest directly in these or any index. 6
Rondure New World Fund Top Ten Holdings as of 11/30/20 Current and future holdings are subject to risks and may change at any time. References to specific securities should not be construed as a recommendation. 7
Rondure Overseas Fund Top Ten Holdings as of 11/30/20 Current and future holdings are subject to risks and may change at any time. References to specific securities should not be construed as a recommendation. 8
Definitions: 1. Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPAC’s) A special purpose acquisition company is a "blank check" shell corporation designed to take companies public without going through the traditional IPO process. SPACs allow retail investors to invest in private equity type transactions, particularly leveraged buyouts. Source: Wikipedia 2. A basis point is one hundredth of a percent or equivalently one percent of one percent or one ten thousandth. A very rarely used term, permyriad, means parts per ten thousand, differing in meaning only in that basis points are normally used to express differences in parts per ten thousand. Source: Wikipedia 3. Definition of the word “Moat” Moat or economic moat is a term coined by Warren Buffett. It is used to describe the competitive advantage a company may have over another company in the same industry. The CFA designation is owned by the CFA institute. The Rondure Funds are distributed by ALPS Distributors Inc. (ADI). ADI is not affiliated with Rondure Global Advisors. Control Number RON000354 Exp. 4/30/2021. 9
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