2021 Tech Trends Report - Home Automation Consumer Electronics - Open Learning Campus
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Volume 6 of 12
14th Annual Edition
2021
Tech Trends Home
Report
Automation
Consumer
Strategic trends that will influence business, Electronics
government, education, media and society
in the coming year.
Home Automation
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 & Consumer Electronics
03 Overview
04 Macro Forces and Emerging Trends
06 Summary
07 GAA Homes
08 Home Service Bots
09 Scenario: GAA Homes and
America’s Digital Caste System
11 Disinfecting Bots
12 Digital Emissions
13 Retrofitting Old Homes
With New Technology
14 Scenario: Regenerative
Infrastructure
15 Forced Obsolescence
16 Smart Kitchens
17 Smart Home Gyms
18 Pricing the Curb
19 Securing the HOT
(Home of Things)
20 Scenario: When Smart
Homes Go Dumb
21 Neighborhood Mesh Networks
22 Rollable Screens
23 Application
24 Key Questions
25 Sources
26 Authors
29 Why FTI
30 About FTI
31 Disclaimer
32 Creative Commons License
Home Automation
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 & Consumer Electronics
Overview
The 1920s began in chaos. Cata- It’s difficult not to see striking ed trends. In total, we’ve analyzed
clysmic disruption resulting from parallels to our modern world. A nearly 500 technology and science
the first world war and the Spanish tumultuous U.S. election, extreme trends across multiple industry
flu shuttered businesses and pro- weather events and Covid-19 sectors. In each volume, we discuss
voked xenophobia. Technological continue to test our resolve and the disruptive forces, opportunities
marvels like the radio, refrigerator, our resilience. Exponential tech- and strategies that will drive your
vacuum cleaner, moving assembly nologies—artificial intelligence, organization in the near future.
line and electronic power trans- synthetic biology, exascale com-
Now, more than ever, your organi-
mission generated new growth, puting, autonomous robots, and
zation should examine the poten-
even as the wealth gap widened. off-planet missions to space—are
tial near and long-term impact of
More than two-thirds of Ameri- challenging our assumptions about
tech trends. You must factor the
cans survived on wages too low to human potential. Under lockdown,
trends in this report into your stra-
sustain everyday living. The pace we’ve learned how to work from
tegic thinking for the coming year,
of scientific innovation—the dis- our kitchen tables, lead from our
and adjust your planning, opera-
covery of insulin, the first modern spare rooms, and support each
tions and business models accord-
antibiotics, and insights into theo- other from afar. But this disruption
ingly. But we hope you will make
retical physics and the structure of has only just begun.
time for creative exploration. From
atoms—forced people to reconsid-
With the benefit of both hindsight chaos, a new world will come.
er their cherished beliefs.
and strategic foresight, we can
The sheer scale of change, and the choose a path of reinvention. Our
great uncertainty that came with 2021 Tech Trends Report is de-
it, produced two factions: those signed to help you confront deep
who wanted to reverse time and uncertainty, adapt and thrive. For Amy Webb
return the world to normal, and this year’s edition, the magnitude
Founder
those who embraced the chaos, of new signals required us to cre-
The Future Today Institute
faced forward, and got busy build- ate 12 separate volumes, and each
ing the future. report focuses on a cluster of relat-
03 © 2021 Future Today Institute
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
6
1
Macro Forces and
Emerging Trends 2 3 4 5
For nearly two decades, the Future Today Institute has meticulously re-
searched macro forces of change and the emerging trends that result.
Our focus: understanding how these forces and trends will shape our
futures. Our 14th annual Tech Trends Report identifies new opportunities
for growth and potential collaborations in and adjacent to your business.
We also highlight emerging or atypical threats across most industries,
including all levels of government. For those in creative fields, you will find
a wealth of new ideas that will spark your imagination.
Our framework organizes nearly 500 trends into 12 clear categories.
Within those categories are specific use cases and recommendations for
key roles in many organizations: strategy, innovation, R&D, and risk.
Each trend offers six important insights.
1. Years on the List 2. Key Insight 4. Disruptive Impact 6. Action Scale Informs Strategy
We track longitudinal tech and Concise description of this trend The implications of this trend on FTI’s analysis of what action your Strong evidence and data. Longer-
science trends. This measurement that can be easily understood and your business, government, or organization should take. Fields term uncertainties remain. Use it to
indicates how long we have repeated to others. society. include: inform your strategic planning.
followed the trend and its
progression. 3. Examples 5. Emerging Players Watch Closely Act Now
Real-world use cases, some of Individuals, research teams, Mounting evidence and data, but Ample evidence and data. This
which should be familiar to you. startups, and other organizations more maturity is needed. Use it to trend is already mature and
emerging in this space. inform your vision, planning, and requires action.
research.
04 © 2021 Future Today Institute
Home Automation
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 & Consumer Electronics
Macro Forces and
Emerging Trends
Scenarios Describe Plausible Outcomes
You will find scenarios imagining future worlds as trends evolve and
converge. Scenarios offer a fresh perspective on trends and often chal-
lenge your deeply held beliefs. They prompt you to consider high-impact,
high-uncertainty situations using signals available today. 1
1. Headline 2
A short description offering you a glimpse into future changes.
2. Temporal and Emotive Tags 3
A label explaining both when in the future this scenario is set and whether it is
optimistic, neutral, pessimistic, or catastrophic.
3. Narrative
The descriptive elements of our imagined world, including the developments
leading us to this point in our future history.
Scenario sources: The Future Today Institute uses a wide array of quali-
tative and quantitative data to create our scenarios. Some of our typical
sources include patent filings, academic preprint servers, archival re-
search, policy briefings, conference papers, data sets, structured inter-
views with experts, conversations with kids, critical design, and specula-
tive fiction.
05 © 2021 Future Today Institute
Home Automation
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 & Consumer Electronics
Home + The Home of Things (HoT) industry + Artificial intelligence helps moni-
Automation
is growing, with demand driven tor and mitigate the HoT’s digital
by working, exercising, and learn- emissions and reduce the smart
ing from home. home’s carbon footprint.
+ Homes are becoming sentient: + Google, Amazon, and Apple are
Automated systems sense and the primary HoT platforms, but
& Consumer
adjust temperature, sound, light, their ecosystems aren’t always
and other functions in real time interoperable.
to support families.
+ Rollables are the new foldables:
+ But the HoT is notorious for se- Screens that unfurl and retract
curity vulnerabilities. Hackers will change the form factor of
Electronics
increasingly target HoT devices many consumer electronics.
with botnets and malware at-
tacks.
+ Neighborhood mesh networks
connect clusters of smart homes
Summary
to one another. Within the mesh,
homes share Wi-Fi, and residents
can stay connected to their de-
vices when outside. If a resident
loses her keys while running, she
can ping the network to find their
exact location on the street.
06 © 2021 Future Today InstituteHome Automation
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 & Consumer Electronics
Watch Closely Informs Strategy Act Now
6TH YEAR ON THE LIST
GAA Homes
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS
As prices have dropped for connected Devices across ecosystems aren’t always • Samsung’s SmartThings
Despite the prolifer- home appliances and peripherals, con- interoperable. A Google speaker won’t • Google Developers
ation of smart home sumer sales have soared for smart devices. interact with devices running on Ama-
Devices that work with platforms created zon’s smart home platform, for example. • Apple Developers
devices, only a few plat- • Zigbee Alliance
by Google, Amazon, and Apple (we’ll While savvy users can buy smart cam-
forms can connect them call them the GAA) are ubiquitous and eras that run on open source tools, the • Dotdot
all together. increasingly affordable—because a smart average family needs to choose one of
home offers rich streams of data that can the GAA. The three companies joined
Amazon’s ecosystem encompasses thousands be monetized. In China, Alibaba, Xiaomi, the Zigbee Alliance to create and en-
of devices.
and Baidu are the predominant provid- force standards for wireless networking
ers. The GAA aim to create a seamless protocols used by low-power radios in
experience among the devices in their smart home gadgets and appliances. Still,
ecosystems. Amazon’s smart electrical that doesn’t mean Google products will
plugs; lightbulbs; Fire TV Cube; Ring connect with Amazon’s, which effectively
doorbell, smart door locks, thermostats, means we’re Google, Apple, or Amazon
and security cameras; and Alexa speakers families.
can together control many of a home’s ev-
eryday functions. Similarly, Google Home
connects to thousands of devices. Telecom
firms hoping to create high-margin busi-
nesses, rather than act as dumb connec-
tivity pipes, increasingly seek partnerships
with the GAA.
07 © 2021 Future Today InstituteHome Automation
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 & Consumer Electronics
Watch Closely Informs Strategy Act Now
6TH YEAR ON THE LIST
Home Service Bots
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS
The 1980s-era home service robot the Samsung calls its Bot Handy an “ex- • Savioke
Service robots automat- Omnibot 2000, by Japanese toy manufac- tension of you” anywhere you need a • Neato Robotics
ically perform repetitive turer Tomy, wasn’t a commercial suc- hand in the home. Still in development,
cess, but it was useful: It could play back this slender, autonomous bot picks up • Trifo
tasks around the home.
prerecorded sequences on cassette tape, it laundry, brings you drinks, and loads the
could roll into your room and wake you dishwasher. Bot Care aims to be a per-
at a designated time, and it carried light sonal assistant. While humanoid robots,
objects with articulated claw hands or such as the XR-1 from CloudMinds, are
a tray. Fast-forward to 2021, and home built as all-purpose automated butlers,
service bots are finding a new audience. most service bots are smaller, lightweight
Samsung’s JetBot 90AI+ is a robot vacuum and intended to perform single func-
with lidar, a 3D sensor, a built-in camera, tions. As their functionality improves,
Samsung is making a robot that will pour you and computer vision that allows it to service bots will reshape house cleaning,
a glass of wine.
avoid objects and double as a roaming se- which could have downstream effects
curity system. Larger wheels let it maneu- on companies that make analog clean-
ver over door thresholds and thicker rugs, ing supplies (paper products, sponges,
and it has an automatic disposal system. and sprays). The next wave of bots will
The Gladwell Gecko Robot is an auto- include automated clothing cleaners and
mated glass and window cleaner. iRobot’s laundry folders, and service bots that use
Looj device cleans your gutters, and The computer vision to make beds.
Landroid L 20V from tools innovation
company Worx is like a Roomba for the
yard: It automatically mows the lawn in a
desired pattern.
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