Industry Insight New Zealand Ports and Freight Yearbook - Deloitte
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New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2019 | Contents Contents Introduction 3 Glossary 4 Global Perspectives 6 In Focus 17 Beyond Supply Chains 22 Domestic Environment 30 New Zealand Freight Task 33 Port Performance 42 Port Summaries 54 Our Infrastructure & Capital Projects Offering 67 2
New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2019 | Introduction Introduction The Deloitte New Zealand Ports and We are pleased to release this Freight Yearbook presents a concise Yearbook as part of Deloitte’s recently snapshot of macroeconomic and established Infrastructure & Capital domestic drivers of New Zealand port Projects (ICP) integrated market and freight activity. Additionally, we offering. include insight pieces on key trends in the shipping industry. We welcome Our domestic and global network of your feedback and look forward to ICP professionals, allow us to bring future discussion and engagement. together deep skills to address all aspects of infrastructure development The Yearbook has again been and operation. prepared with contribution from Deloitte’s specialist economic advisory Our ICP services help clients to: team, Deloitte Access Economics, who develop investment confidence; have provided global and domestic effectively plan, manage and control a economic insights. We also welcome project’s cost and schedule; and better input from our Consulting service line manage and optimise existing assets on the role of ports in the digital (often through digital transformations supply network and how this role will that increase a client’s capability to shape the implementation of digital control and operate their technologies. infrastructure). This years ‘In Focus’ pieces include the impact of the new Marpol Annex 6 low sulphur fuel regulations, the piloting of hydrogen production and refuelling facilities, and smart containers. The Yearbook also presents recent data on the New Zealand freight task alongside operational and financial performance data for New Zealand’s major ports. 3
New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2019 | Glossary Glossary Brexit United Kingdom’s Exit from the European Union NZTA New Zealand Transport Agency CCFI China Containerised Freight Index OCR Official Cash Rate CNG Compressed Natural Gas OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development EBIT Earnings Before Interest and Tax ONE Ocean Network Express EIA Energy Information Administration PPP Public Private Partnership FEU Forty-foot Equivalent Unit RBNZ Reserve Bank of New Zealand FIGS Freight Information Gathering System RCD Remote Container Device FTA Free Trade Agreement RCM Remote Container Management GDP Gross Domestic Product RORO Roll-on Roll-off GFC Global Financial Crisis T&L Transport and Logistics GT Gross Tonnes TEU Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit HFO Heavy Fuel Oil TPP Trans Pacific Partnership ICP Infrastructure & Capital Projects TWI Trade Weighted Index IMF International Monetary Fund ULSFO Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel Oil IMO International Maritime Organisation USMCA United States-Mexico-Canada Free Trade Agreement IoT Internet of Things WTO World Trade Organisation LNG Liquefied Natural Gas LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas MoT Ministry of Transport NFDS National Freight Demands Study NPAT Net Profit after Tax NZIER New Zealand Institute of Economic Research Inc 4
New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2019 | Glossary Glossary COUNTRIES PORTS BRA Brazil AKL Ports of Auckland CHN China BLU Southport (Bluff) DEU Germany EST Eastland Port IDN Indonesia LYT Lyttelton Port of Christchurch IND India MLB Port Marlborough JPN Japan NPE Napier Port KOR South Korea NPL Port Taranaki MYS Malaysia NSN Port Nelson SAU Saudi Arabia NTH Northport THA Thailand POE Port of Otago TWN Taiwan TIU PrimePort Timaru USA United States of America TRG Port of Tauranga VNM Vietnam WLG CentrePort (Wellington) TRADE ROUTES AS-ME Asia to Middle East Trade Route AS-Med Asian to Mediterranean Trade Route AS-NA Asia to North America Trade Route AS-NE Asia to Northern Europe Trade Route AS-SA Asia to South America Trade Route AUS-FE Australia to Far East Trade Route NA-SA North America to South America Trade Route NE-NA Northern Europe to North America Trade Route NE-SA Northern Europe to South America Trade Route 5
New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2019 | Global Perspectives Global perspectives – Deloitte Access Economics Global economy Steady economic growth and a strong China’s ongoing trade dispute with the US The current period can be categorised as labour market in the United States (US) is of particular importance with a current one of higher risk aversion compared to The global economy has softened after saw the Federal Reserve increase the halt on tariff increases in place. previous years. Rising trade tensions and weaker performance in some economies federal funds rate by a total of 100 basis Representatives from both parties are deeper-than-expected contractions in in the second half of 2018. The points over the course of 2018 to a aiming to close a deal by late April. developing economies such as Turkey and International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) current range of 2.25-2.5%. Guidance Failure to resolve this dispute would have Argentina have led investors to lower World Economic Outlook (January 2019) suggests it will remain around this level in a wide-ranging negative impact on global their exposure to riskier assets. estimates global gross domestic product 2019 with US GDP growth projected to be economies. (GDP) growth has remained at 3.7% in It is clear that the pending outcome of lower than in previous years at 2.0%. 2018, in line with 2017 growth. Decreases in global growth projections for trade disputes will have a determining China is facing a slowdown in GDP growth 2019 are primarily attributed to the impact on growth in 2019. The signing of The global outlook is for a slight slow- due in part to financial regulatory economic slowdown in China combined the US-Mexico-Canada free trade down in growth for 2019 and 2020, to tightening and escalating trade tensions. with unresolved trade tensions globally. agreement (USMCA), and the US-China 3.5% and 3.6% respectively. This is lower GDP growth is projected to be 6.2% in Further concerns surround the stability of 90-day halt on tariff increases at the end than current levels but still higher than 2019, following the downward trend of Italy’s fiscal policy, where sovereign yields of 2018 represented meaningful steps the average 3.3% rate achieved in the recent years. remain high. Other negative shocks to towards de-escalating trade tensions. years following the 2008 Global Financial global growth forecasts include new auto However, global uncertainty surrounding Crisis (GFC). fuel emission standards in Germany and the Brexit deal and negotiations between weakening financial market sentiment. the US and China remain. If these trade disputes can be resolved in a co-operative Real GDP growth (annual change) The United Kingdom’s (UK) negotiations and timely manner growth outcomes may with the European Union over its pending 20 exceed baseline projections. exit (Brexit) remain ongoing. This casts Forecast 15 further uncertainty over global markets. However, the current outlook is tilted to The final terms of the deal regarding the downside. Both the UK and Europe, 10 trade, migration and financial access to and the US and China, face a difficult the single market are eagerly awaited as negotiation process with the concern that 5 failure to secure a favourable deal would trade negotiation breakdowns will lead to % harm the UK labour market and economy. an increase in tariff barriers. It is - expected that all global trading partners Increased euro-scepticism is also on the would suffer as a result. In this case, (5) rise in other parts of Europe which may global growth rates may fall short of affect future European parliamentary (10) projections, which are already on a Australia China India election outcomes. Combined with an downward trend. New Zealand United States World impending Brexit, this threatens to disrupt Euro area the region’s economic environment. Source: IMF world economic outlook 7
New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2019 | Global Perspectives Global perspectives – Deloitte Access Economics Global trade Broadly speaking, New Zealand’s trade New Zealand’s ‘Trade for All’ agenda Of particular note is New Zealand’s policy consists of multilateral negotiations, includes a number of key principles that support of multi-lateral negotiations and a Global trade activity continues to grow, Bilateral and Regional Trade Agreements inform the future direction of trade with focus on the Asia-Pacific region. yet at a lower rate than seen in previous (BRTAs) and unilateral action to reduce New Zealand. years. IMF forecasts show that world New Zealand’s import tariffs. The first two trade volumes grew by 4.0% in 2018. aspects of trade policy mentioned have an This growth was at a more moderate pace external focus, while the latter aspect has than earlier 2018 estimates, with 2019 a domestic focus. Free Trade Agreements in force and 2020 forecasts predicting trade ASEAN-Australia New Zealand Free Trade Area (AANZFTA) expansion will remain at 4.0% in the New Zealand has been a strong advocate New Zealand-China Free Trade Agreement coming years. of free trade and at the forefront of Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership (P4) negotiating bilateral and multilateral free The flat lining of trade growth is in part New Zealand and Thailand Closer Economic Partnership trade agreements. The relatively small due to the heightened tension between New Zealand and Singapore Closer Economic Partnership and geographically dispersed population major trading partners, and the Australia and New Zealand Closer Economic Relations (CER) of New Zealand and distance to markets uncertainty surrounding the outcome of New Zealand-Korea Free Trade Agreement means trade is critical to delivering the these negotiations. The US and China are high quality and diverse nature of goods Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) yet to reach a deal on their trade dispute, that New Zealanders produce and New Zealand and Malaysia Free Trade Agreement - signed but not yet in force and the UK appears far from finalising the consume, at affordable prices. It is New Zealand and Hong Kong, China Closer Economic Partnership terms of its impending exit from the estimated that over 600,000 jobs are in European Union. direct export sectors with the majority of Free Trade Agreements - Concluded but not in force Actual trade growth figures will depend on these jobs located in the New Zealand Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) the outcome of the unresolved trade regions. New Zealand - Gulf Cooperation Council Free Trade Agreement disputes mentioned above. While current Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement (ACTA) A key objective of the New Zealand forecasts do not represent a reduction in PACER Plus Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade global growth, risks to heavily weighted to (MFAT) is for Free Trade Agreements the down-side. This is reflected in the Free Trade Agreements Under Negotiation (FTAs) to cover 90% of goods exports by New Zealand - EU Free Trade Agreement weakening financial markets sentiment 2030. India FTA currently observed globally. Currently New Zealand has trade RBK FTA New Zealand’s trade policy is important agreements with 16 World Trade Trade in Services Agreement (TiSA) for the Port sector as it has the capacity Organisation (WTO) members. This New Zealand - China Free Trade Agreement Upgrade to affect imports and exports moving evolution is the continuation of a move New Zealand - Pacific Alliance Free Trade Agreement around New Zealand. away from trading with European powers Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) to more regional trade. 8
New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2019 | Global Perspectives Global perspectives Container shipping Long-haul mainlane trades are critical to the overall health of the shipping The shipping industry plays a pivotal role industry. These mainlane trades face a within the global economy that has been difficult year with trade tensions between shaped since the 1960’s by the two mega the US, China and Europe on top of trends of globalisation and saturation of containerised goods in containerisation. Western markets. The shipping industry is constantly Intra-Asia growth for the first 11 months evolving, striving for increased efficiency of 2018 was the slowest recorded in the through innovation with new larger ships last decade at 3.8%. specialised for each trade (especially containers) and adopting emerging Freight rates on intra-Asia trades were technologies to boost efficiency and steady throughout 2017-2018 but it is improve environmental outcomes. worth considering what will happen to rates should extra-Asian trades weaken. The global container shipping outlook is largely negative. Demand risks remain in European containerised imports are stuck the form of trade protectionism and - with low demand growth of no more slower than expected economic growth. than 2% for the foreseeable future Rising fuel costs and incoming sulphur particularly if consumer behaviour does regulations also stand to place more not change from that observed in the last pressure on shipping lines. four years. Healthy but slower volume growth is Higher growth rates are forecast for forecast through 2019. Freight rates will African and South American trades, but remain steady with supply and demand this will mainly be in volume rather than balanced by a dip in the number of new freight rates. ships scheduled for delivery during the Unless the costs of steaming from the year. International Maritime Organisation’s Capacity deployment is becoming more (IMO) 2020 sulphur cap are passed on efficient due to consolidation in the through the whole supply chain, profit industry. This is key to a sustainable margins in the container shipping industry balance and freight rates that support will be reduced, a failure to recover the profitability. costs may even result in bankruptcies. 9
New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2019 | Global Perspectives Global perspectives Container freight trends The majority of Twenty-foot Equivalent Global freight task Units (TEU) shipped on the Asia-North Since 2000 the proportion of total global 60,000 18.0% America trade route are East bound, freight that is containerised has steadily heading from Asia to North America. This 16.0% increased and as of 2017 containerised 50,000 is consistent with China’s status as the 14.0% goods make up 15.7% of total freight World’s dominant exporter. The West (billion tonne-miles). 40,000 12.0% Billion tonne-miles bound trade between Asia and Northern The importance of Asia (especially China) Europe reinforces this notion. 10.0% 30,000 is exemplified by its participation in the 8.0% top four container trade routes. 20,000 6.0% 4.0% 10,000 2.0% - - 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Container Other Dry Oil/Gas/Chemicals Container Share (RHS) Source: The Shipbuilders Association of Japan Top trade routes 30 25 Million TEU 20 15 10 5 - AS-NA AS-NE AS-Med AS-ME NE-NA AS-SA NE-SA NA-SA West Bound East Bound North Bound South Bound Source: Worldshipping 10
New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2019 | Global Perspectives Global perspectives Consolidation The three largest alliances are: Top 20 container lines The top seven container shipping lines • 2M Alliance: The two largest lines, 5.0 control nearly 70% of global container Maersk (who acquired Hamburg Sud in 4.5 ship capacity in a market where 2017) and MSC formed the 2M 4.0 economies of scale are considered vital. alliance, later adding Hyundai who will 3.5 Million TEU The continued quest for scale has seen be departing in April 2020 (38% share 3.0 the largest shipping lines form three of global containership capacity). 2.5 2.0 major alliances. • Ocean Alliance: CMA CGM (who 1.5 These three alliances collectively control acquired APL/NOL), COSCO (who 1.0 80% of global containership capacity, merged with CSCL), Evergreen and 0.5 90% of Trans-Pacific trade and 96% of OOCL, unravelling several preceding - KMTC Hapag-Lloyd HMM SITC QASC CMA CGM Wan Hai Maersk IRISL COSCO X-Press Zim MSC ONE SM Yang Ming Arkas PIL Zhonggu Evergreen Asia-Europe Trade. pacts (28% share of global capacity). The benefits of alliances are many and • THE Alliance: Hapag-Lloyd, having include the ability to capture scale without merged with UASC, formed an alliance the need to commit significant amounts of with Yang Ming, Ocean Network 2M Ocean Alliance Independent Chartered Orderbook Source: Alphaliner capital or adding additional capacity to a Express (ONE) and MOL (15% of market which is already oversupplied. global capacity). Alliances can also improve utilisation of The three largest Japanese lines have vessels and increase the frequency of recently entered into a joint venture, services available to shippers. commencing operations in April 2018. The Concerns about shipping alliances include three lines, NYK Group, MOL and K Line, barriers to entry on East-West trade operate as ONE and remain part of THE routes and the possibility of alliances Alliance. being used as vehicles for collusion In further M&A activity, COSCO completed between carriers. The immense a US$6.3 billion takeover of OOCL in July bargaining power in relation to ports and 2018. COSCO are now the world’s third terminals that alliances lend to carriers largest container line with over 430 serves to depress rates for port services vessels and 2.5 million TEU in capacity. and allow carriers to exert increased pressure on ports for additional public infrastructure. 11
New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2019 | Global Perspectives Global perspectives Excess capacity Evergreen will receive ten ships during the year including six G-class 20,388 TEU Prior to the GFC shipbuilding activity vessels. exceeded demand as shipping lines all pursued the same growth strategy – Among other carriers Hapag – Lloyd, ZIM larger, more efficient new-generation and Wan Hai have no ships scheduled for ships. The order book peaked at an all- delivery in 2019. time record of 170 million Gross Tonnes Maersk, CMA CGM, ONE and Yang Ming (GT) in 2007 (pre-GFC). each have order books of between 30,000 More than 1.3 million TEU was delivered and 80,000 TEU in 2019. in 2018 compared with 1.2 million in The medium term order book remains 2017. This was coupled with a further strong with some three million TEU to be reduction in scrapping, resulting in an delivered by 2021. Despite over capacity, increase in the total fleet of 5.7% to more shipping lines continue to invest in new than 22.3 million TEU up from 21 million larger ships. TEU in November 2017. The order book is notable for the This supply growth was not matched by prominence of mid-size and smaller demand resulting in more than 628,000 carriers who are quickly adding capacity in TEU sitting idle at the end of the year, an the hope of leap-frogging the competition. increase of 212,000 TEU on the same HMM, for example, has ordered an time in 2017. additional 338,000 TEU comprising 12 In January 2019 the idle container ship 23,000 TEU vessels and eight 14,000 TEU fleet stood at 561,187 TEU a fall from the ships. The larger vessels are targeted for more than 628,000 in December 2018. delivery from Q2 2020 while the smaller vessels will enter service from Q2 2021. Of capacity to be delivered during the current year, MSC leads the way with Drewery Maritime Research remains 334,550 TEU scheduled, including eight critical of the continued ordering of ultra- 23,000 TEU vessels. large ships, having identified capacity management and continued consolidation COSCO is also scheduled to take delivery as the two key requirements for sustained of 180,970 TEU in the first half of the year liner profitability. including six 19-21,000 TEU vessels. 12
New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2019 | Global Perspectives Global perspectives Scrapping While the scrapping of ships remained low during 2018, an increase in scrapping As new ships are delivered into a market may well be on the horizon. The primary with continued over capacity, scrapping driver of an up tick in scrapping rates is will typically increase. For example in likely to be the IMO’s 0.5% sulphur cap 2016 an all time record of over 670,000 on fuel from 1 January 2020. Older, less TEU was scrapped. fuel efficient vessels will need to either Initial forecasts were for scrapping in use Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (ULSFO) 2017 to be even higher, however or install scrubbers in order to continue increased demand coupled with lower using heavy fuel oil (HFO). scrap prices resulted in lower than The cost of adding scrubbers to older and expected volumes; only 427,250 TEU was smaller vessels may meet or exceed the ultimately scrapped. This trend continued actual asset value of the ship while these in 2018 where scrapping dropped to a same vessels, being less fuel efficient, seven year low of 111,200 TEU. could be overly expensive to operate In recent years the obsolescence of using ULSFO. If the Sulphur cap renders Panamax ships, due to the expansion of the use of these vessels uneconomic then the Panama Canal drove much of the their potential to be scrapped increases scrapping activity, however the increased greatly. value of these ships in 2018 halted this process. 13
New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2019 | Global Perspectives Global perspectives Ship size The current order book emphasises the pursuit of scale with orders for ultra-large The first container ship was introduced in container vessels continuing to be added. 1956. The Ideal X carried 58 containers. MSC is expected to begin taking delivery Within eight years the Associated of ultra-large ships with capacities of Steamship company had introduced ships 22,000 – 23,000 TEU from August 2019 with a capacity of nearly 1,000 TEU. Since onwards. CMA CGM will also receive nine then the capacity of container ships has ships in the 22,500 TEU class from continued to increase at a rapid rate. The December 2019. There are also rumours largest ships currently in service are now that OOCL, recently acquired by COSCO, almost 400 metres in length and have a has ordered six ships at 23,000 TEU each. capacity of more than 21,000 TEU. Bunker price plays an important role in The continuous pursuit of economies of the economies of scale achieved by larger scale is the rationale behind the ever ships. The largest savings are due to the increasing size of container ships. Larger reduced cost of fuel per container vessels provide cost efficiencies in fuel, shipped. The implementation of Marpol 6 crew and greenhouse gas emissions per is scheduled for 1 January 2020, the container. However, there is a question as consequences of which remain to be seen to how long this trend of increasing ship but are sure to impact realised economies size can continue. For a start the world’s of scale. It is notable that nine new CMA shipping lanes may simply not be wide or CGM ships are to be powered by Liquefied deep enough to handle vessels Natural Gas (LNG). significantly larger than those already under construction. Additionally, returns to scale decline with size, with the attractiveness of increasing vessel size from 20,000 to 30,000 TEU being significantly less than from 10,000 to 20,000 TEU. 14
New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2019 | Global Perspectives Global perspectives Bunker Price The Low Sulphur Fuel Oil required from Container Rates Financial Performance January 2020 is forecast to be priced at One of the most significant determinants Stagnating container rates have proved a High fuel prices and low shipping rates up to US$650 per tonne. of container line profitability is fuel prices. drag on shipping line profitability means that financial conditions remain especially when coupled with rising fuel challenging for the shipping industry with The price of bunker fuel has risen costs. these factors reducing profitability. significantly over the last few years. The Chinese Containerised Freight Index Ocean Network Express (ONE) reported a In 2015 the average price of a tonne of (CCFI) has fallen from more than 1,400 total net loss of US$491 million in its first bunker in Rotterdam, New York and to 820 at present. The chart below clearly nine months of operation and is forecast Shanghai was US$170, by 2017 this had shows the steep fall in container rates and to lose a total of US$594 million by the increased to between US$300 and a more recent levelling off. end of its first year. US$350 per tonne with prices towards the end of 2018 exceeding US$420. Oversupply and muted demand growth Hyundai Merchant Marine also reported a combine to keep rates low with the loss of US$720 million for 2018. This situation showing no sign of resolving follows a net loss of over US$1 billion in itself in the near term. 2017. ONE and HMM are not alone with a number of other lines experiencing similar losses. Bunker Price Containerised Freight Index 600 1,600 1,400 500 1,200 400 US$ per tonne 1,000 300 800 600 200 400 100 200 - - Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17 Dec-17 Apr-18 Aug-18 Dec-18 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18 Bunker Fuel Chinese Containerised Freight Index Source: Eikon, Deloitte analy sis Source: Eikon, Deloitte analy sis 15
New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2019 | Global Perspectives Global perspectives International ports As in previous years, Chinese ports saw The global container port and terminal This is accelerating demand for terminal increases in throughput with an average industry is nevertheless under pressure automation. At the same time, shipping The international ports sector appears to increase of 3.3%. The continued strength from two interrelated factors. First, larger lines or shippers may desire ports to be in good health. Global throughput in the US economy saw North American shipping alliances are creating more lower prices. Global consultancy Drewery growth remains positive. port throughput grow by 1.15%, and complex and formidable counterparties. has warned that demands for lower Throughput growth, a key port measure, Europe by 3.9%. terminal handling charges may put future Second, to cater for even-larger was particularly marked across the top 20 port investment at risk, and so the ability The figure below presents the 20 largest containerships, ports are required to ports, averaging 4.1% for the period from to handle larger ships. The scale, cost and ports globally by TEU. Notably ten of invest heavily in providing more capacity 2011 to 2014, then easing to 1.2% from risk of port expansion is rising. these are Chinese ports and a total of 15 and new technology, driving up capital 2014 to 2016. According to Alphaliner, in are from Asia, three from Europe, one expenditure requirements and operating The consolidation occurring in the 2017 global container throughput grew from North America and one from the costs. This is true not just for major ports shipping industry is also having an effect 7.7%, before again easing to 0.7% in Middle East. on the main trade routes which are on ports. As the alliances adjust their 2018. required to service ultra-large container trade routes to optimise utilisation and ships (14,000 TEU and over with future efficiencies, ports gain or lose services. In order books of 23,000 TEU), but also Asia for example the Port of Singapore ports on secondary routes who are faced will attract 34 weekly calls up from 29 at Top 20 ports with a cascade of larger vessels from present. However, Port Klang in Malaysia 45 main routes that have been replaced by will have port calls fall from 11 to five and 40 35 ultra-large ships. Hong Kong Port will have only seven and Million TEU 30 three calls on the Northern European and 25 The capital expenditure required to Mediterranean services respectively, down 20 service these larger ships is evident in the 15 from ten and five at present. 10 fact that between 2000 and 2016 nearly 5 US$69 billion was committed across 292 - port projects. Antwerp Laem Chabang Tianjin Xiamen Shenzhen Guangzhou Kaohsiung Qingdao Los Angeles Ningbo-Zhoushan SIngapore Port Klang Shanghai Hong Kong Rotterdam Busan Jebel Ali Dalian Hamburg Tanjung Pelepas Larger ships are segmenting container terminals into those that can handle larger ships versus those that are unable to. These ships make fewer visits, 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 creating higher peak workflows, while Source: Annual Reports, Deloitte Analysis demanding faster handling, and accelerating terminal obsolescence. 16
In Focus 17
New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2019 | In Focus In Focus – Low Sulphur Fuel Low sulphur fuel • The implementation of scrubbers Refiners also have a role to play in this MSC’s current fleet comprises 523 vessels allows ships to continue to burn situation. At their current utilisation rate, with a capacity of 3.3 million TEU. MSC is The International Maritime Organisation cheaper high-sulphur bunker fuel, they would not be able to produce the also installing scrubbers on its 23,000 TEU (IMO) will enforce a new regulation, specifically HFO, and comply with the required volumes of gas oil. If they go one new builds scheduled for delivery in 2019 Marpol Annex 6, pertaining to sulphur new regulations; way and shipping companies the other and 2020. levels in fuel, taking effect on the 1st of (i.e. shift to higher production of ULSFO January 2020. In essence, the regulation • Scrubbers require a large amount of Hapag-Lloyd is converting its Ultra Large and MSG with shipping companies requires a decrease from the presently capital expenditure but also have an Container Ship SAJIR to operate on LNG. installing scrubbers, allowing them to accepted global sulphur cap on fuel estimated high rate of return (20- When complete this vessel will be the continue to operate using HFO) it would content of 3.5% to a substantially lower 50%). However scrubbers may not be largest ship to operate on LNG, although adversely affect margins. For this reason, 0.5%. This regulation has come about as a viable option for companies who it will be eclipsed by CMA CGM’s 23,000 refiners are hesitant to make the plunge the product of heightening environmental cannot access sufficient financing; TEU vessels in 2020 and 2021. of investing heavily in infrastructure or concerns, specifically those resulting from • If refiners move their production mix varying their product mix until they know CMA CGM has placed two 16,020 TEU harmful emissions released by ships. to being heavily focussed on Ultra Low what shippers are doing. vessels into service retrofitted with This regulation leaves both shipping Sulphur Fuel (ULSFO) or low-sulphur scrubbers. These are the largest vessels Holistically, the imposed changes will companies and refiners in a peculiar marine gas oil (MSG), to meet the to have scrubbers installed. drive up expenses and consequently lower position – having multiple options, but no increase in demand, an uplift in price profitability margins throughout the silver bullet – resulting from a mismatch of HFO will likely occur, through industry. According to the OECD, it will of supply and demand, and uncertainty in decreased supply, negating the cost approximately $5-$30 billion to the where the curve will shift for different intended benefits of purchasing a container shipping industry alone. products post the implementation. From cheaper fuel and utilising scrubbers; the perspective of shippers, they can: Cost wise the spread between HFO and • The underproduction of ULSFO and ULSFO is estimated to be approximately • Install exhaust gas cleaning systems MSG in comparison with HFO (70% of US$250 per tonne. The installation of (scrubbers) on their ships; the current market), combined with scrubbers will cost US$6-10 million per the increased demand from shipping • Buy compliant fuels at a higher cost; vessel. companies attempting to comply with or standards, could cause the already Shipping lines have already commenced • Ships can run on the cleaner LNG as a higher prices to increase further; and the transformation of their fleets in order fuel source. to comply with the emissions regulations. • Finally, the ability of shipping All three options come with their own companies to run on cleaner LNG MSC has secured a US$429 million loan benefits and associated challenges or depends heavily on the availability of which will be used to finance the risks. Some of which include: LNG and bunkering infrastructure, the installation of scrubbers on 86 of its later of which is relatively container ships. underdeveloped. 18
New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2019 | In Focus In Focus – Hydrogen production and refueling Auckland’s first hydrogen Hydrogen is seen as a potential solution production and refuelling to the port’s energy requirements, as it facility can be produced and stored on site, which allows for rapid refuelling and provides In previous Yearbooks “Greenification” greater range than batteries. and the “Circular Economy” have been highlighted as key challenges and The purpose built facility will produce opportunities for port operations, with the hydrogen from tap water. The process will continuous push for more environmentally use electrolysis to split water molecules sustainable solutions encouraging the into hydrogen and oxygen, the latter of consideration of new approaches. which is released into the air with the hydrogen stored for later use. Vehicles With 40% of emissions in Auckland will then be able to refuel in a manner currently attributable to the transport similar to existing Compressed Natural system, harnessing alternative Gas (CNG) and Liquefied Petroleum Gas technologies could play a key role in (LPG) refuelling procedures. The project meeting lower emission targets. Amongst partners will provide technical support as the proposed solutions is the use of well as purchasing hydrogen fuel cell hydrogen as a fuel source, where the only vehicles for the project. by-product is water. Auckland Council is behind the project and The Ports of Auckland, which plays a Stephen Town (CEO) states “We’re proud pivotal role in the national logistics to collaborate with the Ports of Auckland, network, has a goal to be a zero emission If this is successful with passenger trains “This could be part of the answer for our Auckland Transport and KiwiRail on this port by 2040. To meet this target it there is no reason that this could not be fleet of buses and harbour ferries. The innovative hydrogen project, which is a requires a renewable and sustainable developed into hydrogen powered freight idea of a vehicle which only produces first for New Zealand”. energy source for its heavy vehicle fleet, trains. water as a by-product is very exciting”. which are difficult to power with batteries. KiwiRail’s acting CEO Todd Moyle says Auckland Transport Chief Executive, The project is currently in the planning “Joining forces with Ports of Auckland in The Port has now committed to building Shane Ellison says Auckland Transport is phase, and Ports of Auckland is about to this project will allow us to explore how Auckland’s first hydrogen production and committed to clean technology and is very start stakeholder engagement before KiwiRail could use this new technology as refuelling facility. The company and its interested in the possibilities of hydrogen applying for resource consent in 2019. we deliver stronger connections for New project partners Auckland Council, power. Zealand”. KiwiRail and Auckland Transport, will invest in hydrogen fuel cell vehicles Mr Moyle also noted that two hydrogen including port equipment, buses and cars powered trains with a range of 1,000km as part of the project. per tank recently have begun operating commercial services in Germany. 19
New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2019 | In Focus In Focus – Hydrogen production and refueling Why Hydrogen? Global Trends and Trials With infrastructure in place, hydrogen has • Ports globally are involved in trialling the potential to provide a flexible clean hydrogen usage, including the Port of energy source, which can be produced by Los Angeles, Port of Long Beach, Port electrolysis, using on or off-grid of Honolulu, Port of Valencia and Port electricity. of Rotterdam. As long as the electricity utilised is from a • Global automotive manufacturers renewable source, the hydrogen is (such as Toyota, Hyundai, Audi and emissions free (over 80% of New Honda) have developed hydrogen Zealand’s electricity is from renewable powered vehicles. generation). • Worldwide there are over 200 public There have been extensive trials overseas hydrogen stations. and hydrogen vehicles are currently in • 56 fuel cell buses trialled for six years use in the UK, USA, Japan, Korea and in Europe. Europe. There are also a number of hydrogen vehicles available commercially. • Norway and San Francisco are trialling hydrogen ferries. Trains that are powered by hydrogen offer the benefits of electrification without • Hyundai is launching 1,000 hydrogen the need for major infrastructure trucks in Switzerland, Norway and investment. Netherlands between 2019 and 2023. Hydrogen is also fast to refuel and • Toyota has developed hydrogen provides a greater range than batteries. powered trucks which are currently being trialled at Port of Los Angeles. Hydrogen, as an energy source, isn’t restricted to vehicles. Excess electricity • South Korea is planning to replace can be converted into hydrogen, stored 36,000 CNG buses with hydrogen and then converted back to electricity. buses by 2030. • Hydrogen passenger trains are in use on German rail lines following successful trials. 20
New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2019 | In Focus In Focus – Smart containers Smart Containers Maersk identifies five key customer 2. Location Tracking – The true shelf 4. Supply Chain Visibility – Customers benefits of RCM: life of perishable goods can be can confirm that their cargo was Shippers have long desired the ability to determined while suppliers are also kept at the exact settings requested actively track and manage cargo. 1. Relationship Care – By consistently able to keep a location record in throughout the journey. This holds Unfortunately, technological constraints meeting customer requirements for cases of theft or tampering. all members of a supply chain had, until recently, meant that this was the quality and timeliness of accountable. not possible. refrigerated cargo, shippers are 3. Safeguard Quality – Around the able to build and maintain strong clock monitoring of power status, 5. Peace of Mind – A supplier can be Remote Container Management (RCM) customer relationships. temperature, humidity and confident that their customer will allows shippers to monitor the location, atmosphere. have no surprises when opening a temperature, humidity and power status container at its destination. of refrigerated containers easily and in real time. This technology facilitates improved global trade in perishable goods. Maersk is at the forefront of this technology. Each reefer container is fitted with a Remote Container Device (RCD), two antennas and a mobile signal. By monitoring the condition of containers in real time the shipper can be notified immediately if problems occur, for example loss of power leading to an increase in temperature inside the container. The shipper will then be able to notify relevant parties able to resolve the problem, potentially saving millions of dollars in cargo that might otherwise have been lost. 21
Beyond Supply Chains The port’s role in the Digital Supply Network 22
New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2019 | Beyond Supply Chains The rules of the game have changed Ports as the Supply Improving the effectiveness of the The result is an “always-on” ecosystem of Digital as a change agent Network choreographer network is where the value proposition players that is dynamic, high-velocity and for the port lies. delivering a continuous flow of The Supply Network concept incorporates Ports are the hub of the Supply Network, and extends digital connectivity into the information. operating at the intersect where supply Supply chains have physical world. It combines information and demand meet for a diverse range of evolved into networks This ecosystem enables a logistics from many different physical sources to parties. They play a significant role in environment that is more accurate and The way goods and information are drive the physical act of manufacturing, both the management and movement of efficient, ultimately driving greater exchanged has been redefined. distributing and performance. material and information flows, and a transparency and better decision making Traditional, linear supply chains have cluster of organisations are dependent on for all involved. This shift creates significant opportunities, transformed into dynamic, intelligent and ports for network choreography and and challenges, for a port. movement cadence. integrated Supply Networks that are This evolution creates new driven by information and computing operating baselines Digital is now a driving force for the On the supply side, the port authority power. Typically siloed processes have Digital Supply Networks create new future, meaning a diverse set of solutions provides land for rent, assets for terminal been broken down and are enabled by a operating baselines. With the ability to and tactics can become key differentiators operators, and services to ship owners set of diverse and powerful technologies. ascertain information in real time, many to not only support but advance the port’s and inbound logistics providers. Capacity, Digital Supply Networks represent the of the latency challenges inherent in role in the network. efficiency, reliability and support are all evolution of supply chains; a result of the linear supply chains can be mitigated. key for these clients. On the demand side But determining which technologies, what changing technology landscape and manufacturers, distributors and outbound Inefficiencies in one step can avoid being they will deliver, how to implement them, increasing connectivity between the forwarders seek asset security, as well as cascaded into subsequent activities. The physical and the digital worlds. and the way in which they will support the information traceability, time savings and network now has visibility into other port’s overall strategy remains the key to more. Where goods and information once moved stakeholder’s processes, and can adjust success. step-by-step in a supply chain with a their activities based on new found, real- The role of the port therefore exceeds discrete progression, advances in time information. facilitating shipments, as they must automation, sensors, analytics and AI simultaneously work in several directions. With more participants, needing more overcome this delayed action-reaction Its competitive position is not only information, through increasingly process. determined by internal operational interdependent channels, weak links in effectiveness but by its links into the the network will hold all participants back. wider Supply Network. At the heart of this network, the port must take the lead for everyone else to thrive. 23
New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2019 | Beyond Supply Chains Transformation of supply chains Digital capabilities have transformed the traditional end-to-end supply chain into dynamic and integrated networks. As choreographer, the port must take the lead Traditional Supply Chain Digital Supply Networks Synchronised Planning Dynamic Connected Fulfilment Customer DIGITAL Develop Plan Source Make Deliver Support CORE Digital Smart Development Factory Intelligent Source: Deloitte University Press Supply 24
New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2019 | Beyond Supply Chains Staying true to the port’s core value proposition Ports are beginning Two paths to productivity Many factors can erode value creation, Remaining business led the journey such as friction in trading relationships, As the hub of the Supply Network it is When looking to the future, it is important lack of trust between network Digital is high on the agenda for most essential that ports are effective and to ensure that efforts remain business-led participants, inaccurate information that organisations, but many have challenges productive. They must deliver value to and system enabled, and not the other drives the need for just-in-case preparing and adapting. While adoption other network participants or risk being way around. Strategy, not technology, investments, or unpredictable outcomes can enable better, more informed bypassed. ultimately drives success in a digital caused by operational failures. decisions to support the Supply Network, world. New Zealand ports do not have the scale knowing where to start can often prove Ultimately, the port exists to serve the of their global trading partners. On the Investments should therefore target the greatest hurdle of all. complex web of stakeholders, supply side our ports are physically and where the value proposition lies. In the shareholders and regulators. Ports are at the lower end of the digital fiscally restrained, while on the demand New Zealand port context, this is by maturity curve, playing catch up with side they do not have an endless backlog A successful outcome is therefore one that leveraging insight to improve productivity other transport and logistics leaders. of ships waiting to berth. minimises friction and supports trust and and reduce uncertainty for all involved. The industry is taking steps toward effectiveness for all network participants. If neither capital investment nor capacity digitalisation, but processes remain and demand can soak up throughput manual and systems convoluted. In ports inefficiencies, local players must be smart throughout the world there is a in their approach. Without physical scale redundancy of transaction information, offering a path to productivity, New handovers are error-prone, and Zealand ports can look to the smart movements are plagued by inefficiencies. use of information. New Zealand ports are enhancing In Digital Supply Networks, productivity operations through technologies such as arises through insight. Organisations automated straddles and stacking leverage data to make better decisions optimisation software. This is great that optimise performance. This is about progress and will drive substantial knowing what, where and when – and operational improvements, but without a then acting on that information to systemic approach to digitalisation the deliver value. benefits will remain isolated. To capture the full value of digital, Dealing with certainty investment should go beyond isolated Many of the value drivers identified – pockets to focus to a holistic, long-term capacity, reliability, efficiency and view of the port. traceability – can be boiled down to a common theme: the Supply Network wanting to grow value in an uncertain world. 25
New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2019 | Beyond Supply Chains Managing decision making via the digital twin Being smart with Internet of Things (IoT) sensors, which resources we discussed in Deloitte’s 2018 Ports and Freight Yearbook, are placed throughout Ports play in a resource intensive world. the port’s infrastructure to generate Resource allocation decisions don’t come insight into resource performance. lightly – large investments and long lead in times are needed to procure The sensors take in all types of data: infrastructure within a constrained water temperatures, tidal conditions, wind environment. Owning, managing and direction and speed, loading and maintaining the resource base adds even unloading operations, what berth space is more complexity. To ensure a productive available and when. An algorithmic model operating environment, ports are then parses the information and runs constantly seeking to increase simulations to provide a granular view of transparency, decrease cost and improve everything happening in the port. the reliability and availability of their resources. Confidence in the face of uncertainty Adding to this challenge, the port cannot Companies with high-value resources and always rely on its partners. Trucks might are processes reliant on a variety of not turn up, documents may be incorrect, stakeholders can reap the greatest or weather might delay a ship’s arrival. advantage from digital twins. Decisions cannot be made assuming all will stay constant. From scenario testing of weather on operations, to evaluating the impact of What if there were a way to design and various stacking layouts, to simulating test performance under different thousands of response options for supply scenarios without the significant capital chain disruptions, developing a digital outlay? Digital Supply Networks enable twin can increase the reliability and ports to explore this uncertainty. availability of the port’s assets, and drive The digital twin faster, more accurate decision making. Digital twins are virtual replicas that Ultimately, digital twins enable greater simulate the port’s physical resources confidence in the face of uncertainty. based on real-world, real-time information. 26
New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2019 | Beyond Supply Chains Trust and efficiency through blockchain The importance of It establishes a digital baseline for document management documentation, allowing exporters, forwarders, carriers, customs, ports and Document management remains an importers to collaborate in near real-time ongoing challenge in the industry. Moving through a single source of truth that is goods requires a string of paperwork, secure and traceable. processing, and lengthy verifications across buyers, sellers, forwarders, If we think of traditional supply chains as customs and of course the port itself. a cycle of transactions, blockchain at its Significant resources are tied-up on most basic is a mechanism to share manual, error-prone documentation and transactional information between parties. bureaucracy – estimated at one fifth of It acts as database that records, the actual container transportation cost. replicates and stores information on a network that is visible only to trusted In addition to time and cost inefficiencies, parties who must validate the transaction this friction erodes trust in the Supply before it is recorded. Each transaction, or Network. Shipping involves many hand- ‘block’, is chronologically added to the offs with little transparency into who is prior one, and so on. doing what, when and where. Trust breaks down further due a lack of accountability Going beyond transactions when goods arrive damaged, without the A key evolution for Supply Networks are correct paperwork or worse, not at all. smart contracts. These extend Ports are the centre point where cargo is blockchain’s utility from simple record transferred across different transport keeping to automatically implementing modes and logistics routes, meaning trust terms of multiparty agreements. is fundamental to their value proposition. Smart contracts encode the business rules Blockchain can aid the ever-present need and contract parameters to trigger the for efficiency and trust. sequence of contractual actions. Worthy of the hype? The result is a method by which parties Blockchain attracts hype and scepticism in can agree upon terms and trust that will equal measure, but its application in be executed automatically, with reduced shipping is very real. risk of error or manipulation. 27
New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2019 | Beyond Supply Chains Trust and efficiency through blockchain Parallels between Tracking focuses on capturing the state of blockchain and DSNs the asset in real-time, or at Maersk Line, IBM and TradeLens documents, sensor readings and a predetermined location or conditional whole host of other information. The evolution of linear supply chains to Many view digitisation as the future of milestones. Digital Supply Networks creates the right global trade; technology will break The platform provides end-to-end environment for decentralised, distributed Traceability focuses on capturing the down barriers and enable the easy and visibility across shipping corridors, real technologies such as blockchain. history of the asset, often to pinpoint a secure flow of information between all time access to information that will flaw or fault, but also for auditability and parties in the supply chain. enrich port collaboration and enhance The breakdown of traditional action- compliance purposes. terminal planning. Furthermore, reaction siloes mirrors the value creation To this end, Maersk, in tandem with TradeLens will enable better informed this technology offers, as it enables Provenance concerns transfer of custody, IBM, has launched TradeLens – a risk assessments and information information to move seamlessly across where reassurance about counterfeiting, blockchain based ecosystem that sharing. the network. It places trust in the overall point of origin, or lineage is required. connects trade participants across the process through transparency and shared supply chain. TradeLens is intended to By using blockchain, TradeLens is able If blockchain’s traits offer a single source accountability as goods move from A to B. solve the highly inefficient paper based to address the fragmented nature of of truth, smart contracts extend the processes that currently characterise the supply chain. Blockchain is a The benefits for shipping ability of blockchain to automate approval global trade. The existing system sees shared ledger where a network of workflows and customs clearings that are Blockchain can ease the uncertainty of data trapped in organisational silos, participants maintain a distributed and prone to lag and error – thus reducing moving cargo across borders, helping to with varying perspectives on the state permissioned ledger of documents, cost and time to settlement to drive instill trust in the port’s activities among of a transaction and a clearance events and approvals. The ledger is greater confidence across the network. network participants. process that is easily subject to fully auditable as each change creates fraudulent activity. a new immutable block. Only parties Shippers have a range of assets in motion participating in a relevant consignment at any given time. Knowing where these In contrast, TradeLens will bring have permissioned access and are able assets came from, where they are, and together all parties from traders, to submit, edit or approve relevant what refinements to each are made along freight forwarders and ocean carriers data. Information can only be changed the way is critical to the effective running to ports and terminals, customs and if endorsed by all parties to the of an organisation. As such, the other government authorities in a consignment. application of a blockchain layer can help blockchain platform that provides a in the management of asset tracking, secure permission and identify based 90+ companies involved in sea port traceability and provenance. framework. logistics have joined the platform, including 20+ port or terminal Supply chain information will be able operators. to be shared seamlessly in real time. This includes data on shipping milestones, cargo details, trade 28
New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2019 | Beyond Supply Chains Where to from here Is the future really But there are a host of next big things out Instead, take an iterative, targeted Start small upon us? there, and just because you can invest approach that addresses how to do the Consider ways to make the transition a doesn’t mean that you should. What’s port’s core role, better. Digital isn’t The rapid rise of digitalisation may seem manageable and realistic one that needed is for the value proposition to be achieved by throwing money at point dizzying, but what were once considered acknowledges the existing landscape made explicit and, wherever possible, solutions, so focus on building key fringe innovations are now largely proven, constraints. It’s not about big-bang quantifiable. themes of value that together will or even standard, capabilities for many. transformation. enable systemic gains. Failing to build these tools can mean the The building blocks It often makes sense to start with smaller Supply Network leaves the port behind. for success Think big stakes, where the vision can be tested For example, the digital twin is reliably While many leaders understand the When you do decide the time is right, and refined with fewer consequences. increasing asset uptime and availability, changes being brought about by digital, work with port stakeholders and Selecting complementing projects at the leading to positive impacts within the first they may not be prepared to fully harness network participants to identify a shared ‘edge’ can provide greater latitude for year. Typically unplanned downtime the benefit from those changes. The how vision where digital enables the port to building digital capabilities, and can help decreases and maintenance costs shrink tends to be less clear. drive effectiveness and value for all. to balance the risk and reward debate. in a matter of months, labour costs are Quickly set ambition and chart a path to Often, the biggest challenge around Prioritise those areas that address the reduced and additional benefits observed. success with a deliverables roadmap. digital is getting the basics right. This core value of the port and the needs of In another example, blockchain is actively includes integrating old systems, Linking value to offerings that are, or the Supply Network. being deployed within supply chains, in streamlining processes, and keeping could be, used in the market is a key various ways and at various levels. Its information secure. It’s important to take next step. Understand where existing Act fast benefits have been well documented stock of where you are. Know what efforts can be enhanced, new ideas can Don’t wait for perfect. Establishing a across multiple industries, and Maersk's technologies are being used, by who, to be brought to light, and explore the competitive advantage requires a TradeLens platform is a case in point. achieve what specific goals. potential of new technologies and willingness to join the fray, but do so Organisations can choose from many techniques. quickly or the market will leapfrog you. Don’t treat the current IT landscape as a successful, real-world use cases to learn constraint – while many cross-sector As you imagine the digital path ahead Recognise that initial investments may and build a convincing case for organisations may not have cutting-edge and build out your roadmap, consider serve as learning opportunities rather investment, then develop a model for core systems they are successfully the impact new ambitions and than be truly transformational. This is a their own efforts. Examining how others undergoing the digital journey. Through technologies may have on your current journey. Small successes serve as building have scaled these types of capabilities integration layers that act as an and future organisation, people, blocks and proof points, leading to a into company-wide solutions can help intermediary, modern technology enables processes and systems – only through greater willingness to take on more as the inform a target path for investment. functionality to be built around legacy an end-to-end view of the operating port moves up the maturity curve. As the systems. In other words, you don’t have model will you ensure that efforts port progresses and can demonstrate to reinvent the core to start the journey. become systemic and not isolated. success to its stakeholders, new ways of working that drive greater value will emerge. 29
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