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New Zealand Ports and Freight Yearbook 2021 | Contents Contents Introduction 3 Glossary 4 Deloitte Access Economics: Global Perspectives 6 Deloitte Access Economics: Domestic Environment 15 In Focus: Climate-Related Financial Disclosures 23 In Focus: Health and Safety Assurance and Contractors 26 In Focus: Decarbonising Sea and Road Freight 28 In Focus: Digital Twins and Asset Management 32 New Zealand Freight Task 35 Port Performance 44 Port Comparative Performance 54 Port Summaries 58 Our Infrastructure & Capital Projects Offering 72 2
New Zealand Ports and Freight Yearbook 2021 | Introduction Introduction The Deloitte New Zealand Ports and Freight We are pleased to release this Yearbook as part of Yearbook presents a concise snapshot of Deloitte’s Infrastructure & Capital Projects (ICP) macroeconomic and domestic drivers of New integrated market offering. Zealand port and freight activity. This Yearbook Our domestic and global network of ICP includes insight into the global and domestic professionals allows us to bring together deep skills, environment, a series of ‘in focus’ pieces, and providing integrated solutions to all segments of the updates from our domestic ports and freight infrastructure sector and across the asset lifecycle. analysis. We welcome your feedback and look forward to future discussion and engagement. Our ICP services help clients to: The Yearbook has been prepared with contribution • Select investments and provide project delivery from Deloitte’s specialist economic advisory team, confidence; Deloitte Access Economics, who have provided • Effectively plan, manage and control a project’s global and domestic economic insights. The ‘in cost and delivery schedule; focus’ pieces have been provided by our Consulting and Risk Advisory service lines. • Better manage and optimise existing assets; and Our Consulting service line provides a perspective • Introduce digital transformation opportunities on the applications of ‘digital twins’ in asset across the asset lifecycle. creation and management. Risk Advisory provides two case studies this year; the first on the task force on climate-related financial disclosures, and the second on health and safety and contractor management for businesses. The Yearbook also presents recent data on the New Zealand freight task alongside operational and financial performance data for New Zealand’s major ports. This data is further presented via an interactive dashboard. 3
New Zealand Ports and Freight Yearbook 2021 | Glossary Glossary Brexit United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union ONE Ocean Network Express CHN China OPEC Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries EBIT Earnings Before Interest and Tax PCBU Person Conducting a Business or Undertaking FIGS Freight Information Gathering System PMI Producer Manufacturing Index GDP Gross Domestic Product PPP Public Private Partnership GFC Global Financial Crisis RBNZ Reserve Bank of New Zealand GT Gross Tonnes RORO Roll-on Roll-off H&S Health and safety TEU Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit HFO Heavy Fuel Oil TCFD Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures HSFO High sulphur fuel oil TWI Trade Weighted Index ICP Infrastructure & Capital Projects ULSFO Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel Oil IMF International Monetary Fund USA United States of America IMO International Maritime Organisation WEO World Economic Outlook IoT Internet of Things YoY Year on year LSFO Low Sulphur fuel oil NFDS National Freight Demand Study NPAT Net Profit after Tax 4
New Zealand Ports and Freight Yearbook 2021 | Glossary Glossary TRADE ROUTES PORTS AS-ME Asia to Middle East Trade Route AKL Ports of Auckland AS-Med Asian to Mediterranean Trade Route BLU Southport (Bluff) AS-NA Asia to North America Trade Route EST Eastland Port AS-NE Asia to Northern Europe Trade Route LYT Lyttelton Port of Christchurch AS-SA Asia to South America Trade Route MLB Port Marlborough AUS-FE Australia to Far East Trade Route NPE Napier Port NA-SA North America to South America Trade Route NPL Port Taranaki NE-NA Northern Europe to North America Trade Route NSN Port Nelson NE-SA Northern Europe to South America Trade Route NTH Northport POE Port Otago TIU PrimePort Timaru TRG Port of Tauranga WLG CentrePort (Wellington) 5
New Zealand Ports and Freight Yearbook 2021 | Global Perspectives Global perspectives Global economy Growth globally in 2020 ground to a standstill China was the initial epicentre of the COVID-19 A record level of both fiscal and monetary policy Sizeable levels of policy stimulus are expected to due to the impact of COVID-19. Many countries outbreak but a tight lockdown and subsequent stimulus has cushioned many economies from a remain until economic recoveries are well experienced recessions as economic activity shut restrictions have seen the Chinese economy more severe fallout from the pandemic. entrenched, with many policymakers wary of down and the global economy is expected to bounce-back relatively quickly. The Chinese Government support packages were rolled out doing anything to cut down the green shoots of a have contracted by 3.5% YoY over 2020. economy grew 2.3% over 2020, one of the few over the past 12 months, boosting economic recovery. However, this GDP result was better than initially major economies to avoid a nasty recession. confidence. In New Zealand, a total of over feared due to the strong rebound seen in many This expansive policy stance is expected to see Growth is expected to pick up further in 2021, to $15bn has been spent on wage subsidies and countries over the latter half of last year. inflation rise in many countries as economic a pace of almost 8% YoY, putting China back on a small business loans. activity picks up again. However, the IMF is growth path close to that forecast pre-COVID. Massive levels of fiscal and monetary policy The commencement of vaccination programmes forecasting that the global economy will be 6% support have cushioned the impact from the virus Western countries are expected to fare worse in many developed economies is also providing a smaller in 2025 than it was predicting prior to the and helped prop up growth. But the strength of over 2021, with ongoing lockdowns in some form boost to confidence, although it will be some virus outbreak. the economic recovery remains reliant on effective continuing until vaccination programmes are time until populations are fully vaccinated. vaccination programmes and minimising further The scar the pandemic leaves on global output rolled out to the majority of populations. outbreaks. The IMF is currently forecasting the Central banks added to already highly will take quite a long time to heal, despite global economy to expand 5.5% YoY over 2021 and expansionary monetary policy settings. growth returning toward ‘normal’ levels. then 4.2% in 2022. Wholesale and retail interest rates fell to new record lows in many countries in response. Regional GDP losses relative to pre-COVID outbreak Global growth - actual and projections (current projected 2022 level relative to pre-COVID (January 2020 WEO) 6.0 forecast, percent difference) 5.0 0.0 4.0 -1.0 3.0 -2.0 2.0 -3.0 1.0 -4.0 -5.0 0.0 -6.0 -1.0 -7.0 -2.0 -8.0 -3.0 -9.0 -4.0 Em. Asia LAC SSA MECA EMDE World Em. Eur. AE China United -5.0 ex. CHN States 2019 2020 2021 2022 AE=advanced economies; Em. Asia ex. CHN = emerging and developing Asia excluding Source: World Economic Outlook October 2019 China; Em.Eur. = emerging and developing Europe; EMDE = emerging market and developing economies; LAC = Latin America and the Caribbean’ MECA = Middle East and Central Asia; SSA = sub-Saharan Africa 7
New Zealand Ports and Freight Yearbook 2021 | Global Perspectives Global perspectives Global trade In the wake of COVID-19, the IMF estimates that In the lead-up to the pandemic, increasingly Over the year to December, New Zealand The outlook for other New Zealand food exports global trade volumes declined by almost 10% YoY. protectionist sentiment had seen a rising focus imports dropped significantly on the back of remains more subdued, with ongoing lockdowns on buying local goods. Supporting local lower vehicle and fuel imports. However, car in other countries limiting demand for New However, as the global economy recovers, trade businesses also remained important through the imports have shown signs of picking up at the Zealand meat. volumes are expected to rebound 8% over 2021, COVID-19 recovery efforts. The recent change in end of 2020 and are expected to recover back and continue to expand by 6% over 2022, based on For New Zealand exporters, a strengthening New government in the USA has yet to provide a toward more historical average levels. In IMF WEO forecasts. This is likely to be dominated Zealand dollar may see a dampening in demand marked change in the increasingly protectionist November, New Zealand’s annual goods trade by the merchandise trade. The services trade is from offshore and a reduction in NZD incomes policies, with the Biden Administration tightening surplus hit the highest level in almost 30 years. expected to remain more muted, with border over the year ahead. With the New Zealand rules to encourage the federal government to closures expected to persist for some time. Dairy exports from New Zealand to China fell economy looking in a strong position vis-à-vis buy domestic, rather than imported, goods and back at the end of 2020. However, recent dairy many other countries where COVID-19 outbreaks The decline in merchandise trade over 2020 services. auctions suggest that demand for New Zealand continue, the New Zealand TWI is expected to ended up being less severe than initially In the UK, Brexit has seen extra requirements at dairy products in China is rebounding and dairy remain high over the year ahead. estimated. However, supply chains remain ports introduced, causing delays and increasing prices have gained substantially over the last impacted by the pandemic fallout. Shipping costs costs. These increased costs are likely to be three months. have skyrocketed and pressure is not expected to passed on to consumers in the UK. ease in the near term. World Trade Volume - Actual and Projections Global activity indicators and trade volumes 10.0 120.0 15% Imports: Advanced Economies Imports: Emerging Market and Developing Economies 5.0 100.0 10% Exports: Advanced Economies Exports: Emerging Market and Developing Economies 0.0 80.0 5% -5.0 60.0 -10.0 40.0 Industrial production 0% -15.0 20.0 Manufacturing PMI: New orders -5% -20.0 0.0 2019m11 2019m10 2019m12 2020m10 2020m11 2020m12 2019m1 2019m2 2019m3 2019m4 2019m5 2019m6 2019m7 2019m8 2019m9 2020m1 2020m2 2020m3 2020m4 2020m5 2020m6 2020m7 2020m8 2020m9 -10% 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source: IMF World Economic Outlook October 2020 8
New Zealand Ports and Freight Yearbook 2021 | Global Perspectives Global perspectives Container shipping Container rates Costly containers Last year was marked by an acute shortage of While demand for shipping is estimated to have 10K Cost to ship a 40-foot container from Shanghai to Los Angeles containers, in the wake of COVID-19. Trade fallen by about 11% in the wake of the 9K Cost from Shanghai to Rotterdam reduced significantly in the first half of 2020 and pandemic, a rapid supply-side contraction of containers were stranded in ports all over the about 13% kept margins firm. Since June, 8K world. This meant that there were significant container rates have tripled on some major 7K shortages of available containers when trade routes. 6K picked back up again later in the year. As a Heading into 2020, the focus was largely on result, container prices escalated to as much as 5K increased operational costs due to compliance six times pre-pandemic, hitting record highs. 4K with new clean fuel regulations and concerns There are early signs that this shortage is about a squeeze in margins. However, this was 3K starting to ease, and container prices are more than offset by the rise in shipping rates in expected to soften somewhat over 2021. 2K recent months. This means many companies The recovery over the second half of 2020 was come out of 2020 in a better financial position 1K much stronger than anticipated. Despite the than in 2019. 0K volatile year, container volumes increased 1.7% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 There was a noted increase in digital quoting YoY in 2020. In addition, lower volumes of flights and booking for shipping over 2020, with an Source: Drewry World Container Index have provided further support as some items, increased focus on dynamic pricing. This is that used to be carried by air, shifted to sea expected to be one of the major trends for 2021. freight. More containers are currently being built to help ease the supply shortages, but they will take time to come on stream. Trade reduced significantly in the first half of 2020 and containers were stranded in ports all over the world. This meant that there were significant shortages of available containers when trade picked back up again later in the year. As a result, container prices escalated to as much as six times pre-pandemic, hitting record highs. 9
New Zealand Ports and Freight Yearbook 2021 | Global Perspectives Global perspectives Container freight trends Concerns over a collapse in global freight in the wake of the pandemic were blown out of the water in the second half of 2020. Unsurprisingly, the first half of the year saw a large decline in trade volumes and long delays due to increased health and safety requirements. As businesses returned to some level of normalcy, and consumer confidence increased, shipping demand rose dramatically. In addition, consumers responded to the pandemic with a strong shift to shopping online. This has seen online retail surge higher, taking the share prices of companies such as Amazon to new records. It is unlikely that this trend will fully reverse. The virus has essentially sped up the adoption of many existing online technologies. One of the key areas that is expected to see Containerised trade on major East-West trade routes, 2014-2020 (Million 20-foot equivalent units and annual percentage change) further growth is food cargo, particularly Trans-Pacific Asia-Europe Transatlantic refrigerated goods. With a growing population Eastbound Westbound Eastbound Westbound Eastbound Westbound and increasing food production, this is expected to remain a key growth area in years ahead. Northern East Asia- North America- Northern East Asia-North North America- Europe and Northern Total Asia- Northern Europe and Trans-Pacific Transatlantic Traditionally, the Asia-North America trade route America East Asia Mediterranean Europe and Europe Europe and Mediterranean Year to East Asia Mediterranean Mediterranean -North America sees the majority of Twenty-foot Equivalent Units (TEU) shipped East bound, from Asia to North 2014 16.2 7 23.2 6.3 15.5 21.8 2.8 3.9 6.7 America. The recent increase in trade barriers 2015 17.4 6.9 24.3 6.4 15 21.3 2.7 4.1 6.8 2016 18.2 7.3 25.5 6.8 15.3 22.1 2.7 4.3 7 between the USA and China has started to shift 2017 19.4 7.3 26.7 7.1 16.4 23.4 3 4.6 7.5 this dominance however, with some 2018 20.8 7.4 28.2 7 17.3 24.3 3.1 4.9 8 manufacturing moving toward South-East Asia. 2019 20 6.8 26.8 7.2 17.5 24.7 2.9 4.9 7.9 2020 18.1 7 25.1 6.9 16.1 23 2.8 4.7 7.4 Source: UNCTAD 10
New Zealand Ports and Freight Yearbook 2021 | Global Perspectives Global perspectives Alliances The industry remains highly concentrated amongst three alliances. The global containership Top 20 container lines supply is dominated (~80%) by: 5.0 • 2M Alliance (Maersk and MSC), 4.5 4.0 • the Ocean Alliance (CMA CGM, COSCO and 3.5 Million TEU Evergreen); and 3.0 • THE Alliance (ONE, Hapag-Lloyd and Yang 2.5 Ming). 2.0 1.5 These alliances carry influence among 1.0 competitors globally, and also own many of the 0.5 ultra-large container vessels. These big ships have - A.P. Moller-Maersk Group Wan Hai Lines Ltd Antong Holdings IRISL Group Mediterranean Shipping Company X-Press Feeders China COSCO Pacific International Lines Shandong International TS Lines CMA CGM Group Hapag-Lloyd Ocean Network Express Yang Ming Marine Transport ZIM Integrated Shipping Services SM Line Korea Marine Transport Company Evergreen Marine Corporation Hyundai Merchant Marine Zhonggu Logistics Corporation the ability to create scale economies. Transportation The alliances also enabled companies to carefully Corporation manage capacity through the pandemic and essentially allowed the industry to hit ‘reset’ on S.A. shrinking profit margins. Having such strong conglomerates has allowed shipping companies to leverage their market position in negotiations and quickly modify shipping frequency to manage the fallout from lower shipping demand in the height of the pandemic. Source: Alphaliner Despite the strong turnaround in the sector’s fate over the past year, there were still some casualties who couldn’t survive the downturn. Pacific International Limited hit financial strife, with talk of several takeover offers from various bidders. 11
New Zealand Ports and Freight Yearbook 2021 | Global Perspectives Global perspectives Ship size For the past 50 years, container ship sizes have been on an ever-upward trajectory. That is until the pandemic hit and fleet owners started to appreciate the relative nimbleness of smaller ships. In addition, smaller goods that were traditionally transported by plane are increasingly being shipped due to fewer flight options. In 2020, the first of twelve 24,000 TEU containerships ordered by HMM was launched. However, the fallout from COVID-19 may signal an end to the continuous pursuit of scale. There has been a shift to more intra- regional shipping movements, and this has been accompanied by demand for smaller vessels as more manufacturing moves to South-East Asia to avoid US tariffs on Chinese-made goods. These smaller regional ports are not as well set-up for the larger vessels that have been favoured up until now. We may have seen peak ship size for the time being. Concerns over supply chain resilience are also prompting manufacturing firms to consider more regionalised supply chains. Higher degrees of automation are helping enable this as it reduces the labour cost advantages, which have typically driven off-shoring decisions in the past. 12
New Zealand Ports and Freight Yearbook 2021 | Global Perspectives Global perspectives Bunker fuel ICE Europe Brent Crude Electronic Energy Future One of the most significant determinants of 140 container line profitability is fuel prices, which tanked in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Oil 120 then rebounded as hopes of a robust economic 100 recovery took hold, with oil rallying to $60/barrel in February 2021 – the highest level seen since 80 $(NZD) January 2020. This was supported by supply cuts from the Opec+ producers and a reduction in 60 investment from oil suppliers. The increasing focus on green energy alternatives is likely to keep 40 a lid on just how far oil prices might rise in coming 20 years, however. 0 Of particular interest in recent months has been the widening spread between high and low sulphur fuels. High sulphur fuel prices dropped dramatically after the introduction of IMO 2020, but as the spread between HSFO and LSFO has widened, HSFO prices have stabilised. The spread is also encouraging more companies to consider installing scrubbers as an alternative to using the Of particular interest in recent months has been the widening spread more expensive LSFO. between high and low sulphur fuels. High sulphur fuel prices Low sulphur surcharges were scraped toward the end of 2020 in response to pressure from the dropped dramatically after the introduction of IMO 2020, but as the industry as oil prices remained low. However, the spread between HSFO and LSFO has widened, HSFO prices have recent rise in oil prices is expected to see very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) charges reinstated. As stabilised. The spread is also encouraging more companies to prices rise, there is an expectation that LSFO surcharges will be implemented. Heavy fuel oil consider installing scrubbers as an alternative to using the more (HFO) is only allowed to be used by ships with scrubbers installed, but the margin between the expensive LSFO. two oils has widened in recent months in favour of HFO. 13
New Zealand Ports and Freight Yearbook 2021 | Global Perspectives Global perspectives International ports Top 20 ports The Port of Shanghai experienced a significant hit in the early stages of the pandemic, with trade 50 from China declining rapidly. However, Shanghai 45 and other Chinese ports were generally quick to 40 re-open, with strict quarantine protocols in place. Activity in at the Port of Shanghai has now 35 recovered back to pre-COVID levels. Million TEU 30 Singapore’s Tuas mega-port is due to have some 25 berths start operating from as early as 2021 and is 20 set to be fully completed in 2040. It is expected to be the world’s largest single port, with a capacity 15 of 65mn TEU per year. 10 Ports in Europe generally experienced a very 5 strong rebound over 2020. Antwerp had a record - Shanghai Qingdao Hamburg Jebel Ali Shenzhen Hong Kong Laem Chabang SIngapore Guangzhou Port Klang Tianjin Antwerp Xiamen Kaohsiung Tanjung Pelepas Dalian Busan Rotterdam Los Angeles Ningbo-Zhoushan throughput in 2020, despite COVID-19, with most volumes going through in the second half of last year. In the USA, Californian ports are struggling with a lack of skilled workers in the face of very high demand. The rollout of vaccinations to critical 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 port workers should help alleviate some Source: Lloyd's List productivity pressure after Los Angeles and Long Beach have both been hit by multiple virus outbreaks. The aftermath of COVID-19 has seen large amounts of inbound containers sitting on some ports, while other regions are struggling to get containers to load goods. 14
Deloitte Access Economics Domestic Environment 15
New Zealand Ports and Freight Yearbook 2021 | Domestic Environment Domestic environment 2020 – the year that everything changed COVID-19 had a profound impact on our economy and raised complexities for the ports and freight industry. The key influences below explain the uniqueness of the COVID-19 impacts and subsequent economic recession. Dual global supply and Interconnectedness of the Government’s willingness Closure of borders between and demand shock global economy to spend within countries Historically, global downturns have been caused Over the past decade, the global economy has One of the key policy responses that supported COVID-19 has curtailed overseas travel into New by either a demand or supply shock. It is very become more interconnected than ever. New Zealand’s economy during the past few Zealand as countries try to protect their citizens unusual for both to occur at the same time. global downturns has been the swift action of the against the outbreak. An important element of Over the past two decades, New Zealand has Reserve Bank. New Zealand’s growth over the past decade has The COVID-19 situation is different in that it has developed much closer trade links with China. In been the steady inflow of migrants. This driver of severely impacted demand through lost jobs and 2003, trade with China was about 5% of New The Reserve Bank cut the Official Cash Rate to growth is now under pressure. The figure below income, but has simultaneously reduced supply Zealand’s total trade, compared to 20% in 2019. record lows. This left New Zealand with little in highlights the significant drop-off in net due to forced business closures and disrupted the way of monetary stimulus heading into the migration for New Zealand compared to previous supply chains. This has increased the cost of The interconnectedness of the global economy crisis. As a result, fiscal policy did the heavy lifting quarters. An extended border closure could doing business during a period when demand is has resulted in longer and more disaggregated in terms of response to the crisis. The $50 billion negativity impact economic activity because of a softening. supply chains. The transformation of supply COVID-19 Recovery Budget highlighted fall in the growth of the country’s labour force. chains has taken place in an environment of Government’s willingness to spend. falling trade barriers and an implicit willingness to accept increasing interdependence and the 35,000 Population increase by type associated risks. 30,000 The outbreak of COVID-19 has highlighted the 25,000 risks around these stretched global supply chains. Manufacturing activity has slowed and low 20,000 demand in key regions has flow-on impacts to 15,000 both New Zealand’s imports and exports. 10,000 5,000 0 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018 Q3-2018 Q4-2018 Q1-2019 Q2-2019 Q3-2019 Q4-2019 Q1-2020 Q2-2020 Natural increase Net migration Source: Statistics New Zealand 16
New Zealand Ports and Freight Yearbook 2021 | Domestic Environment Domestic environment Yet, New Zealand enters 2021 close to the historical average of 120. This 20% GDP forecasts – pre and post COVID-19 forecasts very well-placed shows that households are optimistic about the future. Consumer spending experienced a 15% No country has had a perfect response to significant bounce back, largely helped by some COVID-19, but New Zealand can hold its head extraordinary fiscal spending measures. 10% high. The cost was an initial ‘hard’ lockdown (with less restrictive subsequent lockdowns) and The Producer Manufacturing Index (PMI) is an 5% an associated large hit to the economy. New early indicator of economic activity. A PMI Zealand spent the first half of 2020 in a reading above 50 points indicates 0% recession. The quarter-to-quarter drop Q2 was - manufacturing activity is expanding; below 50 12.2%, which dwarfed the previous low point of indicates it is contracting. The PMI dropped to -5% -2.4% in Q4 of 1991. 26.1 in April 2020. This was lower than the low of 36.1 experienced during the Global Financial -10% While there was a greater upfront cost to the Crisis. New Zealand’s PMI has rebounded and is economy, the success of lockdowns in now back at levels just above 50. -15% suppressing the virus has helped facilitate a rapid economic recovery. The speed of rebound Better-than-feared job outcomes have eased has also been unprecedented, with growth the pain for the economy, although the end of RBNZ pre-covid forecast Consensus forecast surging by 13.8% in Q3 from Q2. New Zealand the Wage Subsidy could change this outcome in Source: RBNZ, Deloitte Access Economics based on information from commercial banks enters 2021 very well-placed, with a consensus 2021. Yet, the domestic economy is now view is that New Zealand is expected to see operating at close to normal levels with the growth of 15.3% in Q2 2021. ongoing pain in the economy mostly linked to those industries most affected by closed 160 ANZ business and consumer confidence 80 Business confidence is now back at August 2017 international borders. Uncertainty remains high, 140 60 levels, higher than pre-COVID levels. Business and a range of outcomes remain possible, but confidence is now positive, which shows the New Zealand’s economy has proved to be more 120 40 general business environment is steadily resilient than initially anticipated. Index 100 Index improving. 20 Consumer confidence followed a similar 80 0 trajectory to business confidence and has increased from 100 points in July 2020 to 114 60 -20 points in January 2020. This indicator is now 40 -40 20 -60 0 -80 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Consumer Confidence (LHS) Business Confidence (RHS) Source: ANZ, Deloitte Access Economics 17
New Zealand Ports and Freight Yearbook 2021 | Domestic Environment Domestic environment COVID-19 impacts on the ports sector Demand disruption: COVID-19 to the fall in imports include fuel, crude oil and impact on trade flows aircrafts and parts. Top trading partners with Ports are a critical part of New Zealand’s transport infrastructure, not only for import and less imports relative to pre-COVID levels include export goods, but also for the distribution of freight within the country. In general, COVID- COVID-19 disrupted the expected growth pattern of EU, USA and Japan. 19 disrupted the ports sector in the following ways: New Zealand’s trade flows in 2020. The Trade • Export values in 2020, relative to the previous Balance in April 2020 showed net traded goods of period in 2019, were more resilient. The $1.3 billion. Historically, New Zealand has far higher Internal operational disruption percentage change in April and May were values of imported goods over exported goods, negative, followed by a stronger rebound up to Disruption of port operations due to: making that the highest Trade Balance recorded August. Key commodities contributing to the since 1960. The current Trade Balance still sits at a increase in exports included respiratory • Limited operational resources surplus of $17m. Imports and exports faced equipment, forestry products and fruit. • Increase in procedures and regulations uncertainty in 2020 and the COVID-19 impact can be However, more recent data shows exports are seen in a comparison of 2019 and 2020. experiencing negative growth. The relative softness of exports could be a result of the External operational disruption • Import values in 2020, relative to the previous resurgence of COVID-19 in key international period in 2019, were negative for most of the markets influencing demand for exports. Disruption of port operations due to: year, with a rebound in December. This impact • Increased supply chain volatility was driven by weak global economic conditions and lockdowns, slowing consumption and supply • Limited external operational resource chain disruptions. Key commodities contributing Demand disruption COVID-19 impacts on trade flows (2020 relative to 2019) Decline of port activity due to: % change from previous period 10% • Disruption of cargo flow 5% • Disruption of industrial activity 0% -5% Source: Deloitte Global -10% The biggest disruption for the ports sector in New Zealand was demand disruption. -15% Industrial disputes in Australia also disrupted the shipping activity for New Zealand ports. -20% COVID-19 also disrupted international trade flows with a flow-on effect on cargo flows -25% across ports in New Zealand. -30% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Exports Imports Source: Statistics New Zealand, Deloitte Access Economics 18
New Zealand Ports and Freight Yearbook 2021 | Domestic Environment Domestic environment Demand disruption: COVID-19 impact on cargo flows across selected ports – 2020 relative to 2019 The charts below present how import and export values have been impacted between Q1 and Q3 in 2020, relative to 2019, across selected ports in New Zealand. For most ports, the COVID-19 impact was felt most in Q2, but the impact remained strong in Q3 2020 due to weak global economic conditions and supply chain disruptions. Auckland Tauranga Christchurch (Lyttelton) 8000 9000 12% 5% 8000 -7% 7000 6000 8% 5% -5% 6000 5000 4000 Value of imports/exports (NZD million) 4000 -6% -12% 3000 -12% 2000 2000 21% -2% -9% -9% -22% -10% 1000 -15% -9% -17% 0 0 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q2 19 Q2 20 Q3 19 Q3 20 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q2 19 Q2 20 Q3 19 Q3 20 -1000 Q1 19Q1 20 Q2 19Q2 20 Q3 19Q3 20 Imports Exports Imports Exports Imports Exports Whangarei Nelson Napier 1600 1400 -40% 1400 1400 1200 1200 1200 1000 1000 -1% 1000 -12% 800 800 6% 800 -25% 600 22% 600 -5% 600 400 400 400 200 -61% 200 -54% 19% -73% 200 -2% 12% 9% 9% 0 -79% -30% 3% 0 0 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q2 19 Q2 20 Q3 19 Q3 20 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q2 19 Q2 20 Q3 19 Q3 20 Q1 19 Q1 20 Q2 19 Q2 20 Q3 19 Q3 20 Imports Exports Imports Exports Imports Exports Source: Statistics New Zealand, Deloitte Access Economics 19
New Zealand Ports and Freight Yearbook 2021 | Domestic Environment Domestic environment Demand disruption: COVID-19 impact on total throughput – 2020 relative to 2019 This chart presents total throughput data for up to Q4 2020 for nine ports involved in handling international containers. The total throughput data shows that the impact on TEU flows due to COVID-19, was relatively small, with the exception of the Ports of Auckland. Overall, port activity across New Zealand in the rolling 12-months to the end of December 2020 declined by 6% to the previous year. During 2019, the nine ports handled throughput of 3.24 million TEU, compared to 3.05 million in 2020. For the year ending December 2020, the biggest decline in container (TEU) volumes was foodstuffs (-18%), followed by wood products and other (-15%). Container 3.800 trade: rolling annual container load and discharge (TEUs) 3.80 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 0.05m 0.05m 3.24m 3.300 0.08m 0.09m 3.30 0.09m 0.09m 0.11m 0.12m 3.05m 0.19m 0.18m 2.800 0.27m 0.26m 2.80 0.45m 0.42m 2.300 2.30 0.79m 0.67m 1.800 1.80 1.300 1.21m 1.18m 1.30 0.800 0.80 0.300 0.30 -0.200 Port of Ports of Lyttelton Port of Napier Port Otago Port Nelson Centreport Primeport Southport Total (0.20) Tauranga Auckland Timaru 2019 2020 Source: FIGS, Deloitte Access Economics 20
New Zealand Ports and Freight Yearbook 2021 | Domestic Environment Domestic environment External operational disruption: Sea freight rates have increased significantly in Overseas ship visits at selected ports (2020 relative to 2019) COVID-19 impact on ports 2020. Two contributing factors were the challenge of limited container availability along with high Another key impact of COVID-19 on the ports Otago volume of stock still needing to be moved. There is sector is linked to external operational disruption a risk that higher shipping costs could flow through through supply chain volatility. The pandemic led to Auckland to consumer price inflation in 2021. a decline in overseas ship visits and an inconsistency in the number of arrival and There has also been disruption from late or delayed Tauranga departure ships. As illustrated in the top chart, ships dropping sea cargo at the Ports of Auckland Wellington ports faced a decline in the number of arriving and rather than carrying on to other New Zealand ports, departing overseas ships across Q1 to Q3 2020. so they do not miss docking windows back in Asia. Lyttelton This led to a fall in the number of containers being Napier handled at New Zealand’s ports and a reduction in the availability of empty containers. Container -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% handling for the Ports of Auckland and Tauranga, who accounted for 63% of all container movements Q1 Q2 Q3 in 2019, were down in Q1 to Q3. Most other ports Source: FIGS, Deloitte Access Economics container handling was also down relative to 2019, with only Wellington and Napier showing some Containers handled at selected ports (2020 relative to 2019) improvement in Q3. Otago Auckland Sea freight rates have increased significantly in 2020. Tauranga Two contributing factors were the challenge of limited Wellington container availability along with high volume of stock Lyttelton still needing to be moved. There is a risk that higher shipping costs could flow through to consumer price Napier inflation in 2021. -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% Q1 Q2 Q3 Source: FIGS, Deloitte Access Economics 21
New Zealand Ports and Freight Yearbook 2021 | Domestic Environment Domestic environment What comes next? On the cost front, governments can now programme is allocated towards road borrow at record low interest rates to fund infrastructure. This is still good news for the We will still be dealing with COVID-19 in new investment. On the benefits front, ports sector, supporting freight supply chains 2021, but there are many reasons to believe higher infrastructure spending will help to and meeting growing demands of the freight this year will be much better from an soften the impact on jobs from winding back sector. However, more infrastructure economic viewpoint. We have seen the the Wage Subsidy. stimulus in the ports sector is required to economy rebound strongly and mass address capacity constraints. distribution of COVID-19 vaccines will happen Well targeted infrastructure investment can this year. New Zealand’s ability to control the be a powerful tool for driving economic Other key focus areas for the ports sector to outbreak of the virus and provide confidence growth and raising employment in the short focus on as we rebound from COVID-19 to business and consumers to spend remains term. During the project lifecycle and include changing consumer preferences, critical to the rebound in economic activity. particularly during the construction phases, supply chain digitalisation and operational infrastructure projects can have a significant efficiencies to adapt to increasing costs. The future remains uncertain, and a lot will economic impact on job creation and use of depend on the next few months and possible Finally, from a broader perspective, raw materials. prolonged negative effects for the port and developing and implementing new strategies freight industry due to continued supply The job-creating capacity of infrastructure to boost investment and productivity that put chain disruption, weak global economic investment is crucial in the current us on a more prosperous economic growth conditions and potentially softer exports. environment. However, the impact of path should be a major focus to further build infrastructure in the long term is arguably on our COVID-19 recovery. The Government has already put in place more important. Once built, infrastructure initiatives to promote exports to support can enable greater productivity and a more recovery, for example the Trade Recovery resilient economy in the face of unforeseen Strategy and the Industry Transformation events. We have seen the economy rebound Plans, with a key focus on exports. Of the other options available to The Shovel-Ready programme included a strongly and mass distribution of COVID-19 limited number of projects in the ports governments to stimulate economies, sector, totalling just over $100m in value. vaccines will happen this year. New Zealand’s infrastructure ranks highly. A significant part of the total Shovel-Ready ability to control the outbreak of the virus and provide confidence to business and consumers to spend remains critical to the rebound in economic activity. 22
In Focus: Risk Advisory Climate-Related Financial Disclosures 23
New Zealand Ports and Freight Yearbook 2021 | In Focus Understanding climate-related financial disclosures Task Force on Climate-related What/Who is the TCFD? The TCFD Framework Financial Disclosures (TCFD) TCFD is an organisation established in December The TCFD group published its first set of TCFD climate-related reporting is becoming 2015 by the Financial Stability Board – an recommendations in 2017, establishing a set of increasingly relevant to a growing number of international body that monitors the global voluntary disclosures covering what they refer to industries, including ports and freight. We all financial system. Its goal was to develop a set of as the core elements of recommended Climate- have a role in not only managing the impact of voluntary climate-related financial risk Related Financial Disclosures. TCFD structured its our operations on climate change, but also the disclosures to be used by companies to inform recommendations around four themes that impact of climate change on our businesses – in investors and other members of the public about represent core elements of how organisations particular, the extent to which that impact will the risks they face related to climate change. operate (outlined below). relate to investment return and security. The group encourages organisations to evaluate The group encourages organisations to evaluate This ‘in focus’ piece sets out a high-level and disclose, as part of their annual financial and disclose, as part of their annual financial explanation of TCFD and, at this stage, what it filing preparation and reporting processes, the filing preparation and reporting processes, the means for New Zealand’s ports and freight climate-related risks and opportunities that are climate-related risks and opportunities that are industry. most pertinent to their business activities. To most pertinent to their business activities. assist with this, they have identified what they consider the main climate-related risks and opportunities facing business. Source: Implementing the Recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures – June 2017 24
New Zealand Ports and Freight Yearbook 2021 | In Focus Understanding climate-related financial disclosures TCFD and New Zealand Transport-related industries The benefits TCFD is gaining increasing prominence in New TCFD is likely to become an increasingly key • TCFD improves the long term strategic resilience of businesses by allowing them to Zealand. On 15 September 2020, the Minister for reporting requirement for New Zealand’s ports comprehensively understand and manage climate-related scenarios and risks over Climate Change, James Shaw, announced that and freight industry. extended periods of time. New Zealand would be the first country in the Port and freight operations, as key parts of New • Provides a good road map for evolving business to understand risks and opportunities in world to mandate financial reporting on climate Zealand’s transport infrastructure, will face the lead up to a low carbon future. risks by implementing a ‘comply-or-explain’ increasingly significant climate-related • Increased awareness of climate-related risks and opportunities resulting in better risk regime, based on the TCFD framework. The disruptions, from sea level rise, storm surges, management and more informed strategic planning and decision making. requirement will apply to publicly listed increasingly severe and frequent weather events , companies and large insurers, banks and • Ensures that climate-related financial information disclosed is decision-useful for leading to road outages, schedule disruptions, investment managers. While the changes have investors, lenders, insurers, etc. biosecurity incursions and other logistical delays, not yet become law, the Government has • Easier or better access to capital by increasing investor’s and lender’s confidence that among other issues. signalled that entities could be required to make the company’s climate-related risks are appropriately assessed and managed. disclosures from 2023. Transport also accounts for around a fifth of New Zealand’s greenhouse gas emissions and is a key New Zealand has committed to achieve zero net focus of decarbonisation efforts. Investors and emissions by 2050. More sectors of the New government will increasingly look to the sector to Zealand economy will likely be required or understand what action individual firms are encouraged to consider climate-related taking. Adoption of TCFD disclosures also comes disclosures – either directly through mandatory with a wide range of benefits. climate-related financial disclosures, or indirectly through commercial relationships with investors or parent/client organisations undertaking TCFD, voluntarily or not. 25
In Focus: Risk Advisory Health and Safety Assurance and Contractors 26
New Zealand Ports and Freight Yearbook 2021 | In Focus Health and safety assurance and contractors H&S and the supply chain Where there is no contractual relationship, as is Where to from here common amongst parties operating at port The concept of shared worksites is common Before you ask your head of H&S how they are facilities, understanding how H&S is being throughout the ports and freight industry. As we managing PCBU relationships, recognise that this managed with all the parties in the shared have progressed with understanding and type of management is not solely on one area or workspace is still important. Board and leadership addressing the Health and Safety at Work Act person. Each area of the business that engages, require line of sight that H&S is being addressed, 2015, we are now seeing an increased focus on manages, and interacts with, third parties has and that the there is effective consultation, ensuring that health and safety (H&S) risks are responsibilities and accountabilities to address H&S. cooperation and coordination with all the parties appropriately addressed across multiple supply involved. Consider investigating how assurance and Ask yourself the following questions: chains and other third-party relationships. monitoring activities are being undertaken • As a PCBU, do I feel comfortable that H&S is The concept of PCBU (Person Conducting a together to ensure everybody is operating safely. Programme Review vs. H&S Third being appropriately addressed with our Business or Undertaking) is very much a top line Party Management Review We often undertake deep dives, which consist of contractors, sub-contractors and other item on board and executive leadership looking at an organisation’s own process design relationship types, in shared workspaces? agendas, with an increased focus on ensuring We often get asked to review H&S management and implementation – and getting direct feedback they meet their duties as officers under the Act. programmes at a high level. While this still • Are we undertaking appropriate assurance and from the third parties. It is about having a clear line Most notably, recent enforcement activity by continues to be of value, we are now seeing monitoring activities and reporting? of sight that: WorkSafe demonstrates that understanding and increased focus on understanding how H&S is being • Are we engaging with our third parties in a addressing the risk of multiple PCBUs in shared addressed across an organisation’s third party • H&S risks are being addressed; meaningful way to demonstrate that we are work areas is a key focus area and one that will relationships. In particular, boards and • There is monitoring and assurance activities consulting, cooperating and coordinating? not go away or should be treated lightly. management are wanting assurance that there is occurring; and effective consultation, cooperation and To answer these questions, consider undertaking a coordination (‘the 3 Cs’) occurring across their • All parties are involved in consultation, deep dive through the life cycle of your relationship multiple PCBU relationships. cooperation and coordination of H&S activities. with the third parties. The aim is to understand how you are working together to manage risk, learn off What this means is understanding and receiving each other, and address issues. the assurance that H&S risks are being addressed from the request for proposal/tender, procurement, contract award, project execution, monitoring and assurance, and contract renewal stages of contractor management. 27
In Focus: Decarbonising Sea and Road Freight 28
New Zealand Ports and Freight Yearbook 2021 | In Focus Decarbonising sea and road freight Decarbonisation is a global imperative Decarbonisation is a priority for governments, companies and society at large which, in turn, are making commitments and increasing efforts to close the gap to net-zero emissions. To realise the ambition, progress needs to be made particularly in the harder-to-abate industries – industries that have long asset lifespans, high energy dependency, and complexity of electrification – which represent 30% of global CO2 emissions. In collaboration with Shell, Deloitte has developed two reports sharing insights from leaders around the world in relation to a pathway towards decarbonisation of shipping and road transport – two hard-to-abate industries. In this ‘in focus’ piece we highlight key findings from these two reports. Climate change poses a significant threat to our planet and way of life and we are already seeing the effects of a rapidly warming planet, including mass loss of biodiversity, volatile weather related disasters, stress on food production and water scarcity. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, we have until 2030 to reduce carbon emissions to limit temperature increases below 2°C, in line with the Paris Agreement. To meet the ambitions of the Paris Agreement, CO2 emissions will need to fall to net zero by 2050. 29
New Zealand Ports and Freight Yearbook 2021 | In Focus The shipping paradox The first five solutions aim to unlock progress in the next two to “The decarbonisation of shipping cannot be solved by one three years, and include: organisation on its own. This research clearly shows that it will Shipping is the backbone of the global economy, accounting for require close collaboration between various players in the shipping about 80% of the volume of global trade. Never more so than in ➢ Scale-up in customer demand: Create scale in demand for ecosystem and with other sectors. The insights in the research give us the recent months have we understood the importance of low or zero emissions shipping though chaterers’ and a comprehensive perspective on the barriers, and the road map shipping to maintain the supply of essential goods. However, as customers’ commitments that include long-term contracts to unlock decarbonisation by identifying who needs to do what, and the industry’s development continues, it generates increasing and green procurement criteria. when to drive change.” carbon emissions. ➢ Global regulatory alignment: Level the playing field globally Tarek Helmi, Partner, Deloitte Netherlands The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set an with reduced uncertainty regarding regulations and ambition to reduce international shipping carbon emissions per timeframes. transport work by at least 40% by 2030, and 70% by 2050, off a 2008 baseline. These ambitions send a signal to the shipping ➢ Cross-sector research and development: Intensify To learn more, download the All Hands on Deck report. industry that change is coming, and all parties involved need partnerships to develop zero or low-emission fuels through to prepare. joint research and development. ➢ Scale-up in controlled pilot projects: Increase R&D effectiveness by running end-to-end green pilot projects Unlocking solutions for shipping involving customers, charterers, operators, owners and decarbonisation requires all hands on deck ports on specific routes and vessel types. Drawing from conversations with 80 senior shipping executives ➢ Coordinated industry commitments: Increase the reach of representing 22 countries and virtually all sector segments, existing initiatives – such as the Getting to Zero Coalition, “All Hands on Deck” summarises key findings to unlock the Clean Cargo Working Group and others – decarbonisation in shipping and aims to build on existing by consolidating objectives and strengthening the industry initiatives, drive action and realise positive impact. coordination of various concurrent workstreams. The research recognises the need for a novel decarbonisation Subsequent phases of work will be required approach that is based on three principles: adopt an ecosystem to accelerate and scale progress, with a common foundational perspective, think big, start small and scale fast, and focus on operational efficiency solution that cuts through all the phases to behaviours and triggers. reduce emissions of both existing and future vessels. Based on these three principles, the report highlights 12 Momentum is building, and there is a sense of optimism that it solutions, or recommendations for action, that emerged from can be done. For example, technological advancement is research, interviews and workshops. These solutions making decarbonisation not only a reality but an attractive and streamline what some view as an insurmountable problem into viable business proposition – see The Motorship | World’s several manageable sets of actions that address specific barriers first tiltable rotor sails installed. and enable the industry to get net-zero emissions ships in the water by 2030. Those who take the lead are in a better position to influence the outcomes, but every operator and stakeholder in the industry has a role to play. As one CEO said, we need “all hands on deck.” 30
New Zealand Ports and Freight Yearbook 2021 | In Focus Decarbonising road freight Road freight is fundamental to the global economy as the Highlights from the report include: most flexible mode of transport, and the primary mechanism to bring goods to our stores and homes. It currently • The sector is facing several barriers to accounts for around 9% of global CO2 emissions, the decarbonisation, especially insufficient regulatory majority of which comes from medium and heavy freight incentives, lacking infrastructure, and limited demand trucks. from shippers. To achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement, the sector will • Road freight decarbonisation is close to an inflection need to realise an emission intensity reduction of over 80% point due to increasing regulatory and market pressure in less than 30 years. More pressingly, the sector’s and will evolve faster than many expect. emission intensity should decline by around 30% before 2030. On its current trajectory, the Paris targets will not • To converge on a viable low and zero-emission be met. technology, the sector needs to adopt a duty cycle perspective. This is a challenge, but also an opportunity for first movers to redefine the energy mix, claim market share, and • Through collaboration around a catalogue of 22 introduce new products and business models. solutions, the sector will be able to reduce emissions now and accelerate a shift to low and zero-emission But the challenge is too large for any one organisation or trucks. "Despite the decarbonisation barriers, road freight leaders even one stakeholder group to address alone. Only a joint, believe that a zero-emission technology pathway is emerging collaborative effort will allow the sector to take advantage • The sector has defined a decarbonisation road map, that includes both hydrogen and battery electric vehicles, of the changing paradigm and make progress quickly. which allows it to start deploying low and zero- with both starting to enter the global fleet at scale in the emission trucks at scale by the late 2020s. coming decade.“ Deloitte, in collaboration with Shell, address this challenge through interviews with over 150 executives and experts • Achieving significant emissions reduction requires Tarek Helmi, Partner, Deloitte Netherlands across 22 countries in the global road freight sector. Deloitte a concerted global effort, with leading regions and and Shell identify 22 solutions to address the barriers to companies sharing knowledge and supporting others to decarbonise road freight. leapfrog ahead. To learn more, download the Decarbonised Road Freight report. 31
In Focus: Consulting Digital Twins and Asset Management 32
New Zealand Ports and Freight Yearbook 2021 | In Focus Digital twins and asset management Addressing COVID-19 and beyond Simulate PHYSICAL DIGITAL COVID-19 has reshaped the world and driven changes in the way that WORLD WORLD people live and work. This has created new challenges and opportunities for businesses, which has coincided with, and in part accelerated, the emergence of new technologies to address them. Analyse Monitor The impact on asset management has been particularly acute for shipping companies and ports, as global supply chains struggle to cope with unforeseen changes. Effective scenario modelling is essential to PORT DIGITAL TWIN allow these organisations to better understand the impact these fluctuations will have on their businesses, and to mitigate any adverse effects. Digital twin technology is a key component of Industry 4.0, which looks to automate traditional industrial practices to help address these Learn, Predict and Pre-empt challenges. Global research firm Gartner expects that by 2023, one- third of mid-to-large-size companies that implemented IoT will have Connected Vehicles & Cranes Wireless Network implemented at least one digital twin associated with a COVID-19 motivated use case. WDR Cameras Control Systems & AI IoT Smart Sensors VR Interfacing What is a ‘digital twin’? Connected Devices AR Assistance A digital twin is a digital replica of a physical object or process. Digital twins leverage real-time and historic data, empowering people to make optimal adjustments for asset management given the current-state We integrate the physical-digital-physical journey, empowering a Analyse: Overlaying data on top of prototypes or simulations landscape in real-time, as well as future-focused operational decisions. human to make the right decision from millions of possible provides visualisations that extend beyond conventional Ports can capture masses of data from smart sensors, cameras and scenarios with far more certainty. dashboards to include 3D virtual/augmented reality and artificial other IoT devices and, combined with virtual and augmented reality, intelligence enabled visualisations, along with real-time streaming use this to create a real-time information flow. They can then better Simulate: Leveraging IoT solutions and utilising the intake of data to provide quick and accurate measurements on the actual deploy forklifts or cranes, for example, to optimise the loading and from sensors in real-time to enable the synthesis of dynamic physical environment in its current state or potential future state. unloading of cargo dependent on its type (e.g. containers or irregular simulations or prototypes on new or existing products, processes general cargo such as pipes, barrels, crates). This digital twin view can or ecosystems. With advanced data storage capabilities and Learn, predict and pre-empt: Exercise machine learning on also leverage artificial intelligence for storage of cargo, use of vehicles, computational processing power, more complex algorithms can be prototypes or simulations to proactively detect potential issues and staff rostering. This allows ports to gain efficiencies that would be assessed to uncover insights on aggregated data from disparate and breakdowns, or predict potential gains from what-if scenarios. difficult to achieve without automation, as well as generating other sources. Incorporate deep learning to have the digital twin learn from benefits such as reducing risk, improving on site health and safety, and itself, similar systems, and domain experts to enhance the even lowering carbon emissions. accuracy of the predicted, or pre-emptive outcomes. 33
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