Industry Insight New Zealand Ports and Freight Yearbook - Deloitte
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New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2020 | Contents Contents Introduction 3 Glossary 4 Global Perspectives 6 In Focus 17 The Business of Technology Revolution 20 Cyber Security 24 Domestic Environment 27 New Zealand Freight Task 30 Port Performance 39 Port Performance Over Time 49 Port Summaries 53 Our Infrastructure & Capital Projects Offering 67 2
New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2020 | Introduction Introduction The Deloitte New Zealand Ports and We are pleased to release this Freight Yearbook presents a concise Yearbook as part of Deloitte’s snapshot of macroeconomic and Infrastructure & Capital Projects (ICP) domestic drivers of New Zealand port integrated market offering. and freight activity. Additionally, we include insight pieces on key trends in Our domestic and global network of the shipping industry. We welcome ICP professionals, allow us to bring your feedback and look forward to together deep skills to provide future discussion and engagement. integrated solutions to all segments of the infrastructure industry and across The Yearbook has been prepared with the lifecycle of an asset. contribution from Deloitte’s specialist economic advisory team, Deloitte Our ICP services help clients to: Access Economics, who have provided • Develop investment selection and global and domestic economic project delivery confidence; insights. We are also pleased to • Effectively plan, manage and welcome ‘In Focus’ pieces from our control a project’s cost and delivery Consulting, Risk Advisory, and schedule; Corporate Finance service lines. • Better manage and optimise existing assets, and Our Consulting service line provides a • Introduce digital transformation perspective on the role of technology opportunities across the asset in supply chain industries and how lifecycle. these ‘shifts’ will shape the adoption and implementation of digital technologies. Risk Advisory provide a case study on the Maersk cyber security breach, Deloitte’s role in remedying the breach, and some lessons learned. Our Corporate Finance team also provide insights into value based asset management developments. The Yearbook also presents recent data on the New Zealand freight task alongside operational and financial performance data for New Zealand’s major ports. 3
New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2020 | Glossary Glossary Brexit United Kingdom’s Exit from the European Union NZTA New Zealand Transport Agency CCFI China Containerised Freight Index OCR Official Cash Rate CNG Compressed Natural Gas OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development EBIT Earnings Before Interest and Tax ONE Ocean Network Express EIA Energy Information Administration PPP Public Private Partnership FEU Forty-foot Equivalent Unit RBNZ Reserve Bank of New Zealand FIGS Freight Information Gathering System RCD Remote Container Device FTA Free Trade Agreement RCM Remote Container Management GDP Gross Domestic Product RORO Roll-on Roll-off GFC Global Financial Crisis T&L Transport and Logistics GT Gross Tonnes TEU Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit HFO Heavy Fuel Oil TPP Trans Pacific Partnership ICP Infrastructure & Capital Projects TWI Trade Weighted Index IMF International Monetary Fund ULSFO Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel Oil IMO International Maritime Organisation USMCA United States-Mexico-Canada Free Trade Agreement IoT Internet of Things WTO World Trade Organisation LNG Liquefied Natural Gas LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas MoT Ministry of Transport NFDS National Freight Demands Study NPAT Net Profit after Tax NZIER New Zealand Institute of Economic Research Inc 4
New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2020 | Glossary Glossary COUNTRIES PORTS BRA Brazil AKL Ports of Auckland CHN China BLU Southport (Bluff) DEU Germany EST Eastland Port IDN Indonesia LYT Lyttelton Port of Christchurch IND India MLB Port Marlborough JPN Japan NPE Napier Port KOR South Korea NPL Port Taranaki MYS Malaysia NSN Port Nelson SAU Saudi Arabia NTH Northport THA Thailand POE Port Otago USA United States of America TIU PrimePort Timaru VNM Vietnam TRG Port of Tauranga TRADE ROUTES WLG CentrePort (Wellington) AS-ME Asia to Middle East Trade Route AS-Med Asian to Mediterranean Trade Route AS-NA Asia to North America Trade Route AS-NE Asia to Northern Europe Trade Route AS-SA Asia to South America Trade Route AUS-FE Australia to Far East Trade Route NA-SA North America to South America Trade Route NE-NA Northern Europe to North America Trade Route NE-SA Northern Europe to South America Trade Route 5
New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2020 | Global Perspectives Global perspectives – Deloitte Access Economics Global economy Domestic demand in China is easing back as Elsewhere, global monetary policy Overall the global outlook for 2020 is the economy shifts to a more sustainable stimulus has increased in order to offset more of a ‘muddle through’ view as major Growth in the global economy continued growth model and starts to rein in debt weaker economic demand. The US Federal political conflicts and issues are to slow over 2019. Geo-political levels. The economy expanded by 6.1% in Reserve has cut the Federal Funds rate (hopefully) resolved over the year ahead. uncertainty has dominated over the past 2019 and is expected to grow by just under three times over 2019 to a current range Beyond 2020, growth is expected to pick year, prompting decreased trade flows, 6% YoY in 2020 and 2021. of 1.50-1.75%, unwinding almost all of up again gradually in response to heightened business uncertainty and the interest rate hikes it made in 2018. increased certainty as well as monetary lower business investment. The IMF One of the main political threats in 2019 estimates that global growth was just was Brexit, which added significant In September 2019, the European Central and fiscal support. Growth in advanced below 3% YoY in 2019, the lowest global uncertainty to the UK’s economic outlook, Bank (ECB) lowered its deposit facility economies is forecast to rise to 1.9% YoY growth rate seen since 2009 in the midst which was already weak. Growth in the UK rate by 10bps to -0.5%. The ECB also in 2020, while emerging market of the global financial crisis. The latter is expected to be around 1.5% YoY for the restarted its asset purchase programme economies are expected to expand at a half of 2019 was characterised by global next few years as business investment from November, with a monthly purchase pace of 4.8% YoY. trade tensions, Brexit uncertainty and remains weak and consumer confidence target of €20bn. geo-political events. low. The UK officially left the EU on January While these efforts from major central 31, 2020. However, a transition period will At the start of 2020, there were signs that banks will help offset some of the recent be in place until the end of 2020. During the slump in growth might be bottoming demand weakness, monetary policy that time the UK will still be part of the EU out. Monetary policy easing has helped settings are getting close to their lower bloc for the purposes of the single market provide support for many major bounds. As such, there is also increasing and customs rules. The main priority now is economies. Global growth is expected to pressure on governments to step in with for a new trade deal to be negotiated pick up somewhat to 3.3% in 2020 and fiscal support to help prop up demand in between the UK and EU as soon as possible. 3.4% in 2021. major economies. Global economic policy uncertainty over time Global growth - actual and projections 4% 400 3.5% 3.8% 3.6% 350 Global economic policy uncertainty 3.0% 3% 300 250 Index 200 2% 150 100 1% 50 - 0% 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2017 2018 2019 (forecast) 2020 (forecast) 7 Source: RBNZ Financial Stability Report November 2019 Source: World Economic Outlook October 2019
New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2020 | Global Perspectives Global perspectives – Deloitte Access Economics Global trade In exchange the US has halted plans to Coronavirus was discovered in the Wuhan The Baltic Dry index – an index of Since 2018 there has been a noted shift in impose another US$156bn of tariffs on district of China in mid-January and has shipping rates for raw materials across 20 global trade policies toward a more China and agreed to reverse tariffs spread at a faster pace than the SARS of the major global shipping routes – protectionist stance - led by trade tensions introduced in September on around outbreak that occurred in 2003. While it is showed strong gains in the middle of between the US and China. Trade wars are $120bn of Chinese imports. In addition too early to gauge the extent of damage 2019 after a weak start to the year. The now seen as one of the biggest risks to the the two countries agreed not to the virus could cause, early estimates index has since fallen back to a more global economic outlook. Where globalisation implement any further tariffs. suggest that it could reduce Chinese GDP moderate level but remains higher than had been the dominant theme in recent by about 1 percentage point over 2020. the average seen over 2017 and 2018. Global trade growth has slowed in 2019. While a large share of this would be due decades, the past couple of years have seen This implies that demand remains robust According to the IMF, the volume of trade to lower travel and tourism services, a rise in ’decoupling’ of global economies. and global trade may have bottomed out. is expected to have risen by a meagre 1% consumption is also expected to decline. However, risks to trade remain to the Trade discussions between the US and China over 2019. The IMF is forecasting global This could negatively impact demand, downside. improved somewhat at the end of 2019 after trade volumes will pick up considerably in particularly for some of New Zealand’s the two countries came to a first-stage trade 2020, rising by 2.9% YoY, and then 3.7% premium exports such as seafood and agreement. The agreement commits China to YoY in 2021. However there remains high-value meat products, with NZ log buying more than US$40bn of US agricultural considerable uncertainty around these exports already being impacted. Following goods annually and tightens up US forecasts due to geo-political risks, the SARS outbreak in 2003, beef and intellectual property protections. ongoing trade talks and coronavirus lamb prices fell 15-20% as demand fell. outbreak. World Trade Volume - Actual and Projections Baltic Dry Index Imports: Advanced Economies 5,000 6% 4,500 Imports: Emerging Market and Developing Economies 4,000 5% Exports: Advanced Economies 3,500 Index 4% 3,000 Exports: Emerging Market and Developing Economies 2,500 3% 2,000 2% 1,500 1,000 1% 500 0% 0 2018 2019 2020 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 8 Source: World Economic Outlook October 2019 Source: Reuters
New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2020 | Global Perspectives Global perspectives Container shipping A significant contributor to the 2020 sector outlook, is the implementation of The shipping industry plays a pivotal role the International Maritime Organisation’s within the global economy. Since the (IMO) 2020 sulphur cap. 1960’s the industry has been shaped by the two mega trends of globalisation and This cap took effect on January 1st. containerisation. Compliance will incur costs, with options such as installment of scrubbers, The international shipping industry carries switching to low-sulphur fuels or acquiring 80% of world trade in goods, making free new vessels. global trade vital to the shipping industry. If companies do not pass on these costs The shipping industry is constantly through the supply chain, profit margins evolving, striving for increased efficiency in the container shipping industry will be through innovation with new larger ships reduced, a failure to recover the costs specialised for each trade and adopting may even result in bankruptcies. emerging technologies to boost efficiency and improve environmental outcomes. To combat these negative factors, the sector continues to consolidate in an Despite these innovations, a recent report effort to gain productivity efficiencies and by Fitch Ratings predicts a negative reduce financial losses. This is seen as outlook for shipping in 2020. This is due key to achieving sustainable freight rates to forecast reduced global economic that support profitability. growth, trade tensions and geopolitical risks adversely impacting shipping demand. Despite strong performance in recent years, 2020 is expected to see more subdued results for the industry. This can be attributed to factors such as rising fuel costs, declining container rates, an oversupply of vessels, and the increasing capital expenditure (CAPEX) required to service ultra-large vessels within the global fleet. 9
New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2020 | Global Perspectives Global perspectives Container freight trends Global freight task Since 2000 the proportion of total global The Asia-North America trade route sees 60,000 18.0% freight that is containerised has steadily the majority of Twenty-foot Equivalent 16.0% increased and, as of 2017, containerised Units (TEU) shipped East bound, to North 50,000 14.0% goods made up 15.7% of total freight America from Asia. (billion tonne-miles). The container share Billion tonne-miles 40,000 12.0% China’s status as the world’s dominant declined during 2018 as container tonne- 10.0% exporter, is reflected in these container miles decreased and an increase in total 30,000 freight trends. The West bound trade 8.0% freight was recorded. The container between Asia and Northern Europe 20,000 6.0% portion of the global freight task is reinforces this notion. expected to remain at 14.7% throughout 4.0% 10,000 2019-2020. 2.0% The top four container trade routes - - 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 illustrate the importance of Asia’s Container Other Dry Oil/Gas/Chemicals Container Share (RHS) (especially China) participation in the Source: The Shipbuilders Association of Japan container freight sector. Top trade routes 30 25 Million TEU 20 15 10 5 - West Bound East Bound North Bound South Bound Source: Worldshipping 10
New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2020 | Global Perspectives Global perspectives Consolidation Top 20 container lines (2019) The global shipbuilding industry saw order The top five container shipping lines 4.5 4.0 books halve in value during 2019. This control nearly 60% of the global container 3.5 particularly impacted companies in China, ship capacity in a market where Million TEU 3.0 South Korea and Japan, which account for economies of scale are considered vital. 2.5 2.0 more than 90% of the market. The global containership supply is 1.5 1.0 China has been encouraging consolidation dominated (~80%) by: 0.5 among state-owned shipbuilders to reduce X-Press… 0.0 • 2M Alliance (Maersk and MSC), Antong Holding Yang Ming CMA CGM Zim COSCO Evergreen SITS MSC HMM Zhonggu logistics IRISL Group KMTC TS Lines ONE APM-Maersk PIL Hapag-Lloyd Wan Hai SM Line overcapacity and stem losses. As such, mainland China had its two biggest • the Ocean Alliance (CMA CGM, COSCO shipbuilders, China State Shipbuilding and Evergreen) and Corporation (CSSC) and China • THE Alliance (ONE, Hapag-Lloyd and Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (CSIC) Source: Alphaliner Yang Ming) merge in November 2019. This new group reportedly accounts for half of China's These alliances carry influence among overall capacity and employs over competitors globally, and also own many 300,000 people. CSSC has announced of the ultra-large container vessels. These orders over US$4 billion. big ships have the ability to create scale economies. Further consolidation among shipbuilders are occurring globally, driven by a tougher profitability outlook for the sector. Thomson Reuters reports “Two of South Korea's largest builders, Hyundai Heavy Industries and Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering are working on a merger. Japan's two largest shipbuilders, Japan Marine United Corporation and Imabari Shipbuilding, are also planning a merger.” 11
New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2020 | Global Perspectives Global perspectives Environmental Compliance options include: If fuel tariffs result in weaker demand, sustainability we anticipate shippers will be • Switching from high-sulphur fuel oil incentivised to take ships out of Global maritime transport companies have (HSFO) to marine gas oil (MGO) or service for scrubber retrofits. become concerned with environmental distillates. Distillate fuel will have sustainability policy in recent years. higher fuel costs, and may require Maersk Line, MSC (Mediterranean additional fuel treatment upgrades Shipping Company), CMA CGM, and Fuel economy and environmental to vessels. Hapag-Lloyd have suggested that the sustainability were prominent issues IMO 2020 regulation change will during 2019. • Switching to very-low sulphur fuel increase individual bunker fuel costs or other compliant fuel blends The International Maritime Organization between $1 million - $2 million p.a. (0.50% sulphur). Some uncertainty (IMO) 2020 regulation will reduce the cap exists for compliant new fuel costs on sulphur in marine fuel from 3.50% to and availability. Further environmental 0.50% for human health and the considerations environment. The most commonly used • Switching to Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) or sulphur-free fuels. LNG as The IMO are also looking at further marine fuel has a 2.7% sulphur content. fuel is costly due to retrofitting, changes to reduce the level of CO2 This regulation came into effect on regional variations in fuel price, emissions from the industry. January 1st 2020 and is expected to raise sector costs. space requirements for storage, One way of helping reduce emissions and may need additional systems would be to implement speed limits on The IMO 2020 regulation raises challenges installed (dependent on engine ships. This would clearly have important for the shipping industry. Potential issues type). consequences for delivery times. may include an increase in operating fuel costs and price volatility, and a reduction • Installing scrubbers (exhaust gas in supply capacity and vessel availability cleaning systems), which extract as ships are taken out of service to fit the sulphur from HSFO as part of scrubbers. the fuel burning process. Installation of scrubbers with the In an effort to maintain margins in the use of HSFO will increase costs. face of higher operating costs, shippers’ Scrubbers typcially increase fuel may introduce new bunker fuel consumption by 2-3% during the surcharges and/or other means to recoup cleaning process. Furthermore these operational costs. there are high installation and maintenance costs, as well as space requirements to house scrubber towers and systems. 12
New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2020 | Global Perspectives Global perspectives Scrapping and ship supply It is forecast that global container volumes will grow by about 2.5% in Forecasts for scrapping in 2019 were 2020. This is well below the 4.5% estimated at 26 million dwt (dead-weight average annual growth rate tonne) and 44 million dwt in 2020. There experienced over the past eight years, are expectations that scrapping of old but represents a small increase from vessels with smaller tonnage may 2019. increase to avoid upgrade investments. Initial forecasts for 2019 (IHS Markit) Increased demand coupled with lower expected modest fleet growth, with the scrap prices resulted in lower than global fleet increasing to 23.6 million expected scrapping volumes for 2018 TEU. Despite increasing ship sizes, the where scrapping dropped to a seven year average vessel within the 2019 global low of 27.6 million dwt. fleet has grown just 2% in TEU capacity During 2018, a total of 19 million dwt had from 2018. been delivered in the total VLCC (very Dry-bulk trading volumes grew 1.4% in large crude carriers) fleet, whereas only 2019, with an expectation of 3% four ships, were demolished in the same growth during 2020 – due to higher period, setting the industry up for a hard iron ore and other commodity volumes. supply and demand balance in the future. Global tankers’ supply and demand are While the scrapping of ships remained likely to grow by 2.5% and 3.5%, relatively low during 2019, there is the respectively, in 2020, supporting a possibility of increased scrapping during better supply-demand balance. 2020. A primary driver being new IMO regulation which requires vessels to switch to low-sulphur fuel or install scrubbers to comply with sulphur reductions. 13
New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2020 | Global Perspectives Global perspectives Ship size The current order book emphasises the pursuit of scale with orders for ultra-large The first container ship was introduced container vessels continuing to be added. in 1956. The Ideal X carried 58 containers. Within eight years the As expected, the Mediterranean Shipping Associated Steamship company had Company (MSC) developed a new class of introduced ships with a capacity of ultra-large ships with capacities of nearly 1,000 TEU. Since then the 23,000+ TEU in 2019. capacity of container ships has MSC currently holds the record for TEU continued to increase at a rapid rate. capacity with MSC Gulsun capable of The largest ships currently in service are carrying 23,756 TEU. This ship is currently now almost 400 metres in length and the world’s largest container ship and have a capacity of more than 23,000 brings with it new environmental and TEU. performance standards. The continuous pursuit of economies of CMA CGM will also receive nine ships in scale is the rationale behind the ever- the 22,500 TEU class from December increasing size of container ships. Larger 2019. There are also rumours that OOCL, vessels provide cost efficiencies in fuel, recently acquired by COSCO, has ordered crew and greenhouse gas emissions per six ships at 23,000 TEU each. container. However, there is a question as to how long this trend of increasing Bunker fuel price plays an important role ship size can continue. For a start, the in the economies of scale achieved by world’s shipping lanes may simply not larger ships. The largest savings are due be wide or deep enough to handle to the reduced cost of fuel per container vessels significantly larger than those shipped. The implementation of the IMO already under construction. 2020 regulations is also likely to have consequences around realised economies of scale. It is notable that nine new CMA CGM ships are to be powered by Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). This is a much cleaner 2019 23,756 burning fuel source, emitting almost no sulphur. 14
New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2020 | Global Perspectives Global perspectives Bunker Fuel Prices During September 2019 there was a Container Rates drone strike on Saudi Arabian oil facilities. One of the most significant determinants Container rates have proven relatively This played a significant role in the 20% of container line profitability is fuel prices. stable throughout 2019, experiencing a spike in brent crude oil prices which high of US$891 in Q1 and a low of The price of HSFO bunker fuel (ClearLynx resulted in bunker fuel prices following. US$777 Q3. Bunker Fuel Oil 380 CST Singapore) was In 2018 the average price for a tonne of volatile over the last year. Rising as high The Chinese Containerised Freight Index HSFO fuel had increased to US$348. as US$589 in August 2019 and dropping (CCFI) has experienced an overall During 2019, the average price of bunker to US$279 in December 2019. increase from US$766 in 2016 to US$823 fuel rose to US$405, due to the spike in in December 19. The price peak can be attributed to September 2019. HSFO fuel is expected intense buying interest and oil stockpiling to decline in response to reduced demand. The chart below illustrates the relatively in the face of shrinking supply. unchanging container rates during 2019 Low Sulphur fuel demand and prices are and the recent uplift to US$823 in Q4. Suppliers are experiencing a market, anticipated to rise during 2020, with ICE where near term prices are higher than Europe Low Sulphur Gasoil pricing sitting longer-dated prices. As such, it is at US$606 during Q4 2019. The IMO 2020 unprofitable to ship new cargoes of fuel regulation, will drive up demand and which are likely to lose value during prices for low sulphur and LNG fuels while voyage. supply and prices for HSFO fuels are expected to decline. Bunker Prices Containerised Freight Index 900 900 800 850 700 US$ per tonne 600 800 500 400 750 300 200 700 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17 Dec-17 Apr-18 Aug-18 Dec-18 Apr-19 Aug-19 Dec-19 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17 Dec-17 Apr-18 Aug-18 Dec-18 Apr-19 Aug-19 Dec-19 Cost per metric tonne (PMT) Source: Eikon, Deloitte analysis Low Sulphur Fuel HSFO Fuel Source: Eikon, Deloitte analysis 15
New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2020 | Global Perspectives Global perspectives International ports The global container port and terminal Top 20 ports industry is also facing sustainability pressures, as shippers are expected to make greener choices. 45 These considerations are likely to have 40 cost implications and require additional funding, reporting, capability and 35 technology developments to support improved environmental outcomes. 30 To accommodate the ever-growing size of Million TEU 25 containerships, ports will also need to continue to invest in providing more 20 capacity and new technology, driving up capital expenditure requirements and 15 operating costs. This is true not just for major ports on the main trade routes 10 which are required to service ultra-large 5 container ships, but also ports on secondary routes that are faced with a - cascade of larger vessels from main Guangzhou Hamburg Antwerp Los Angeles SIngapore Hong Kong Xiamen Rotterdam Dalian Shanghai Busan Qingdao Kaohsiung Laem Chabang Shenzhen Ningbo-Zhoushan Tianjin Tanjung Pelepas Jebel Ali Port Klang routes that have been replaced. Larger ships are segmenting container terminals into those that can handle larger ships versus those that cannot. These ships make fewer visits, creating 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 higher peak workflows, while demanding Source: Annual Reports, Deloitte Analysis faster handling. 16
In Focus Asset Management 17
New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2020 | In Focus Asset Management Maturing the approach Technology is a clear enabler for value Value Based Asset Management based asset management and our ‘In Asset management capability is maturing Focus’ piece, ‘The Business of Technology in asset intensive organisations around Revolution’, illustrates how appropriate the world, with an increasing trend Few technology can support asset organisations towards the adoption of a strategic view management activities. of asset management that effectively balances value and risk, and aligns to best Improvements in data capture and Most practice standards. algorithmic analysis through the Internet organisations of Things (IoT) and digital planning Value based asset management is about The Strategic platforms, such as Anaplan, can help View ensuring the highest level of value infrastructure owners mature their asset creation from the asset portfolio. Value The Economic View • A holistic view of the management practices. asset’s lifecycle to creation takes place over the entire • Effective capital plan the optimal lifecycle, and is optimised through the fact Taking a strategic view of asset Few rationing through organisations (balanced) based management of cost, risk and management is thought of as ‘nirvana’ to robust financial investments, performance. some organisations, however it’s not an assessment of options operational and unachievable state, it simply requires the (hurdle rates, NPVs maintenance Most organisations have progressed from The Technical View etc.) right approach and framework, and a strategies required to a purely technical view of asset • Building and • Financial driven - maximise strategic clear implementation and transition plan adolescent practice, management, to recognising the maintaining physical value to get there. infrastructure to being integrated in importance of financial assessments when • Supported by ensure high some asset intensive integrated processes investing in their asset base. These Deloitte’s value-based asset management performance (e.g. companies and Information financial assessments (e.g. NPVs, whole- methodology delivers a tailored approach reliability, quality of Management Systems of-life cost analysis) can help asset that provides client’s with the ability to supply, safety) (well informed) owners to optimise their investments mature the organisation’s strategic view • Engineering driven - • Fact Based (using through the assessment of options. of asset management that can be scaled mature practice and asset analytics and over a period of time. common basis in portfolio management To progress toward the strategic view of many asset intensive techniques) asset management, infrastructure owners companies • Business driven need to put in place the management (ISO55000) systems that ensure factual decision making across all stages of the asset lifecycle. 18
New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2020 | In Focus Asset Management A holistic decision making process Holistic decision making framework A core aspect of value based asset Identifying the key considerations in management is the ability to take a holistic decision making holistic view. The holistic view allows an organisation to understand how the asset base relates to organisational strategy and requirements. Organisational strategy • How do our assets help support the delivery of However, this view point goes beyond a strategy? solely internal organisational view of • How does our strategy impact how we operate value. Instead it considers the needs of and maintain our assets? the organisation’s customers and other stakeholders of the asset to adopt a level Customer requirements of service approach. • What do our customers require from our assets? Executing a holistic view and decision • How do our assets contribute to the making process requires an asset organisation delivering the customer management solution that enables a data requirements? TOTEX (Opex and Capex) driven evaluation of optimised asset • What is the whole-of-life cost of our assets? strategies based on customer, • How much capex do we need to budget for Intervention schedules organisational, and financial objectives. over the next 10 years? • When will our assets require replacement? • How much opex do we need to budget for over • What impact do our operating and maintenance Once adopted, the holistic view of asset the next 10 years? strategies have on our assets’ availability? management can enable organisations to: • Understand their ability to meet Trade-off prioritisation and optimisation Asset condition, criticality, degradation and decisions customer requirements based on predictive analytics • Can we sweat an asset and if so, what impact planned asset management strategies • What is the current condition of our assets vs will that have on our ability to meet our expectations? customer requirements and the financial • Optimise asset replacement through • Do we have adequate redundancy / resilience? forecasts? data drive decision making • How are our assets degrading over time vs • Is it more financially and operationally optimal to expectation bring forward asset replacement? • Identify potential asset issues through • Are we collecting data that can help us predict • Is a disproportionate amount being spent on less predictive analytics future issues? critical assets? 19
In Focus: Consulting Digital The Business of Technology Revolution 20
New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2020 | In Focus The ‘9’ Big Shifts “All businesses are technology businesses now” IT is undergoing a revolution. We are shifting from a paradigm of tech-enabled business transformation to technology-led business transformation. All businesses are technology businesses now. So if you aren’t driving change into your business, you are falling behind your competition and customer expectations. Gartner predict that “by 2020, 80% of IT organisations still aligned around traditional technology domains will replace their senior Technology leader.” Deloitte research has identified 9 ‘Big Shifts’. Shifts in these disciplines have ‘revolutionised’ the Business of Technology – Going Digital. Going Digital – A Strategic Connected Planning and IoT are key initiatives to consider as an approach Decision for increasing your digital capabilities Going digital can protect you against future and enabling some of these Big Shifts challenges you are not yet aware of. in your organisation. By increasing your digital capabilities, you create an agile organisation that is better prepared for these challenges, offering additional relevant information to support the operational decision-making processes. 21
New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2020 | In Focus Connected Planning and Going Digital Maturity The siloed & untrusted organisation The smart insight driven enterprise Most supply chain businesses already have asset CAPEX FINANCE management capabilities to support operational decision making, but how do you mature these XLS XLS XLS CAPEX capabilities to a more “connected planning” view of your organisation? XLS XLS XLS OPERATIONS Connected HR OPERATIONS VS. HR XLS XLS XLS Planning Connected Planning Tools XLS XLS XLS Connected planning tools (such as Anaplan) are one way of ‘going digital’ and becoming a IT MARKETING XLS XLS XLS XLS XLS XLS proactive business. IT MARKETING ERP CRM HCM FINANCIALS OTHER Inefficient planning tools create a disconnect between business leaders’ desire for frequent • No Trust in Data • Rigid • Real time • Mobile and faster course-corrective action against their • Misaligned Plans • Siloed Operations • User driven • Collaborative ability to quickly revise plans. In comparison, • Limited scale & • Resource Intensive • Connected across the • Cloud based Collaboration • No Audit & Controls enterprise • Scalable insight-driven organisations can benefit from • Modeling & Predictive • Processing power • Global vs. Regional their foresight in making business decisions. Capabilities • IoT Moving towards a Connected Enterprise Where can Connected Planning be Leveraged? Supply Chain Human Resources Finance • Connect HR, Finance, and Business plans to • Enable Finance to drive financial • Realign supply, inventory, and demand plans to optimise talent needs required to support the performance through accurate forecasts and proactively respond to market changes business reduced planning cycle times • Optimise supply chain planning through • Plan and optimise resources to match demand • Reduce Finance’s reliance on spreadsheet predictive analytics to improve profitability and need modelling and IT support for legacy systems 22
New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2020 | In Focus IoT - Start now and connect your business Case study – Australian Freight Operator Fleet management through IoT enablement Issue The client engaged Deloitte to deliver a multi-year fleet transformation program primarily aimed at building a new and safer driving culture. Think big, start small, Further data analysis may reveal better Solution ways of working and operating, providing scale fast even greater insights. And when IoT taps • Market Scan, Technology and Vendor Selection: comprehensive Although real-time decision making across into other technologies, it simultaneously evaluation of organisation’s fleet connectivity (telematics) capabilities, an enterprise once felt ‘a world away’, it is grows from and powers the Fourth driver behavior data and fleet analytics requirements now a reality - through technology like Industrial Revolution – or Industry 4.0. As IoT. • Technology Design, Procurement, and Commercials: designed secure sensors collect data, machines get Harnessing IoT (think: machine learning, vehicle connectivity solution to enable a safer driving culture, smarter, leveraging advances in artificial real-time data, and location awareness) is underpinned by significant economic benefits intelligence (AI). the most powerful way to help companies transform their digital journey and bring • In-Vehicle Monitoring System (IVMS): implemented in-vehicle tracking Cloud compute and storage technologies their biggest ambitions to life. IoT not grow exponentially in response to devices – leveraging IoT Telematics – across the client’s fleet of 1500 only helps you get ahead today, it can vehicles, distributed in over 30 locations, including remote areas demand. IoT is one of the fundamental provide the infrastructure and data to help propel business far into the future. enabling technologies powering the • Analytics-Driven Safety and Fleet Optimisation: data mining and Business of Technology Revolution. exploration of integrated data sources to generate answers for key For businesses, the IoT is having a safety and economic questions, along with delivery of driving behavior Even though early adopters face the risk profound impact on manufacturing and reports, enterprise dashboards, and coaching tools to empower of immature technologies and supply chain operations of all kinds. leadership unpredictable technological advances, Products can be tracked from creation to innovation leaders should start off their consumption to help understand buying IoT projects now in order to ensure Impact patterns. competitive advantage. • 9-17% reduction in fleet costs through fuel economy, idling reduction, and What used to be a series of events is now improved purchase habits all part of a value chain and IoT is the • Greater than 90% reduction in safety events and breaches great connector. But the impact of IoT doesn’t stop there. 23
In Focus: Risk Advisory Cyber Security 24
New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2020 | In Focus Cyber Security All hands on deck It does not appear that Maersk was specifically targeted, but the attack came A.P. Møller-Mærsk, also known as through a piece of software all companies Maersk, has been the largest container use to file their tax returns in Ukraine. ship and supply vessel operator in the According to Western intelligence world since 1996. The company is based agencies, the attack was likely committed in Copenhagen, Denmark, with by a group of Russian military hackers and subsidiaries and offices across 130 was seen as part of the ongoing struggle countries and over 80,000 employees. between Russia and the Ukraine. NotPetya The recovery effort required the reinstall The teams managed to locate backups of This ‘In Focus’ piece tells the story of a corrupted machines owned by other of 4,000 new servers, 45,000 new PCs, all servers, apart from one essential major global cyber-attack Maersk multinational companies and even spread and 2,500 applications. IT experts would component of the company network: its encountered and how they were able to back to Russia. When the attack first hit, normally estimate six months for this domain controllers. These are the servers successfully recover from it. Maersk was unable to determine exactly amount of work, but it was done in a that map the network and determine On 27 June 2017, Maersk's screens what was occurring and it took several heroic effort over ten days. access for all employees. The team started going black and presenting a hours to establish the cause of the attack, located a singular copy of the domain ransom message to employees saying along with the wide-spread impact. In five weeks, we had successfully controller which, due to a power outage “Ooops, your important files are supported Maersk in rebuilding its core IT Leaders at Maersk quickly set up a several days before the attack, had been encrypted”. The instructions stated that capability, including 60,000+ laptop recovery centre at its IT headquarters in unable to connect to the network and for $300 USD worth of Bitcoin, they builds, a global upgrade to Windows 10, Maidenhead, England. They flew in remained untouched by the malware. would be able to decrypt an infected reconstruction of its server regional experts, housed them in every Unfortunately, it was located in Ghana, machine. The global cyber-attack, infrastructure, access to world class available hotel, and engaged Deloitte to where the bandwidth was so limited that involving a piece of malware dubbed security monitoring, and restarting the rebuild its global network. We were able to a digital transfer would have taken days. NotPetya, had infected Maersk’s world's most automated terminal in nine put together a top team and be on the Furthermore, none of the Ghanaian team network across ports and offices in over days. ground within hours. Over the coming had the required visas to travel with the 120 countries. Since the malware had Dan McMillan, one of the first Deloitte hard drive to the UK. Although the days and weeks this team grew to over hit nearly all of their infrastructure, this team members on the ground, said: “The existence of the offline backup was not 130 professionals working in shifts 24/7. ransom would be impossible to pay. most important things to do in such a intentional in this case, it demonstrates As a united team, we restored systems Laptops stopped working and the situation are to first understand what the importance of one particular aspect of and got the organisation back up and world's largest shipping distribution you’re dealing with, and second, to call resilience against cyberattack, running rapidly. We combined our global company – transporting 15% of all for the right kind of help. Maersk did redundancy. Building redundancy into and local teams that comprised skills in global trade – came to a halt. Data from both. They handled the situation network security adds an extra layer of crisis response, cybersecurity, the dark its terminals across the world was professionally from day one.” protection should anything go wrong. The web, large-scale infrastructure delivery, wiped, which meant ships could not incidental existence of an otherwise risk advisory, consulting, forensics, and unload and new orders could not be unnecessary copy of the domain financial services to restore control to taken. controllers saved millions of dollars. central IT systems. 25
New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2020 | In Focus Cyber Security Dangerous duo The other bit of code that the hackers Many of the computers infected by While Deloitte worked with Maersk’s IT deployed in their malware was designed NotPetya were running older versions of team to restore its systems, we also NotPetya was named due to its to spread automatically, rapidly, and Windows. Microsoft says that Windows 10 focused on reverse engineering the virus. resemblance to the ransomware called indiscriminately. NotPetya’s authors was better able to fend off NotPetya We provided security intelligence within Petya, a piece of malware that surfaced in combined the initial spreading attacks, not just because most installs hours of being on site, giving critical early 2016 and extorted victims to pay for mechanism with an older exploit kit auto-updated to fix the vulnerability that insights on how to stop the virus from re- a key to unlock their files. The methods known as Mimikatz. Mimikatz was was exploited, but because improved infecting and thus damaging any recovery used by both viruses were similar but, originally released to demonstrate that security measures blocked some of the effort. Our support helped ensure NotPetya’s ransom messages were a hoax. Windows left users’ passwords in other ways NotPetya spread from machine Maersk’s network was protected against a It irreversibly encrypted computers’ master memory and could be stolen. Once the to machine. This exemplifies the similar virus attack and enabled recovery boot records, the deep-seated part of a NotPetya creators gained initial access importance of keeping systems up to date of business service operations. There was machine that tells it where to find its own to a computer, Mimikatz could pull to help protect our digital assets. It is not also a joint UK, Dutch, and India team operating system. NotPetya’s ultimate goal usernames and passwords out of always possible to upgrade every system providing security validation for all new was purely destructive. A ransom payment memory and use them to hack into in an organisation, but an effort toward it server builds, processing over 1,200 to the malware’s creators would have done other machines accessible with the goes a long way. servers across the globe within 10 days no good because a decryption key did not same credentials. Microsoft had after the attack occurred. even exist to reorder the scrambled noise released a patch for the EternalBlue of their computer’s contents. vulnerability, but the dangerous Although the malware that hit Maersk was combination of EternalBlue and similar to a previous virus, the propagation Mimikatz together made patching less methods utilised were never seen before effective. Essentially, computers could the June 2017 attack. The malware moved be infected that were not patched and from machine to machine quickly through then the passwords collected from two powerful exploits working in tandem. infected computers could be used to One was a penetration tool known as infect computers that were patched. EternalBlue, which was created by the US Cybersecurity professionals have said it National Security Agency (NSA), but was the fastest-propagating malware leaked in a disastrous breach of the they had seen to date. If the malware agency’s ultra-secret files earlier in 2017. was found on a company network and EternalBlue takes advantage of a the organisation had not patched vulnerability in a particular Windows against EternalBlue yet, you could protocol, allowing hackers the ability to assume it was already destroying their remotely run their own code on any data centre before teams could do unpatched vulnerable machine. anything to stop it. 26
Domestic Environment 27
New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2020 | Domestic Environment Economic environment Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Despite softer global demand, NZ The labour market remains strong, with NZIER – Quarterly Survey of Business Statement November 2019 commodity prices have improved with the unemployment rate at 4.2% - close to Opinion, Predictions, September 2019 strong dairy and meat prices over the the estimated level of full employment for The RBNZ surprised markets in November by Headline business confidence fell further in past year. The terms of trade (the ratio the NZ economy. The RBNZ estimates that leaving the Official Cash Rate (OCR) on hold the September quarter, with a net 35% of of export prices to import prices) is unemployment will remain around 4% out at 1.00%. In the accompanying Monetary firms feeling pessimistic about the next six expected to rise over the next few years to 2022 despite softer growth in the Policy Statement (MPS), the RBNZ months. This is the lowest level of as global inflation remains low and oil interim. highlighted that further stimulus after the confidence seen since March 2009 during prices are forecast to remain around dramatic 50bps cut to the OCR in August was NZIER – Quarterly Predictions, the height of the Global Financial Crisis US$60/barrel. On the volumes side, the not warranted at this stage. Since then, the December 2019 (GFC). RBNZ is forecasting export volumes to downside risks to the outlook have abated remain at around current levels. This is In line with most NZ economic forecasters, More concerning is that business activity slightly with several economic indicators partly on the back of a mild slow-down NZIER has softened its growth outlook. measures have deteriorated again, with a pointing toward a stronger start to 2020. in tourist numbers, but also more GDP growth in NZ is now expected to net 11% of firms reporting lower demand The outlook for NZ’s major trading partners subdued agricultural production as global average just 2% over the next five years. over the September quarter. The has softened and political uncertainty growth remains soft. Imports on the Global uncertainty is weighing on manufacturing sector is the most downbeat continues to weigh on the outlook for global other hand are expected to pick-up as confidence and creating caution when it on the economic outlook with export demand. A lower NZ dollar is helping to domestic growth starts to improve from comes to investment decisions. Tighter demand softening as global growth slows. offset some of the negative impact from 2021 and beyond. credit conditions are also having an impact weaker global demand on our export sector on investment plans in some sectors of the and a weaker exchange rate is expected to economy. continue to provide support over the next couple of years. General business outlook and domestic trading activity Official Cash Rate (OCR) actual and forecast 60 over time 9 40 8 7 20 Net % of firms 6 Actual Forecast 0 OCR (%) 5 4 -20 3 -40 General business outlook 2 -60 Domestic trading activity 1 - -80 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 Source: NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion - October 2019 28 Source: RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement November 2019
New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2020 | Domestic Environment Economic environment China remains NZ’s largest trading partner At the start of November, the NZ Government announced a refreshed trade deal with China remains our biggest trading partner, accounting for 23% of our export demand China. Once fully implemented this should mean 98% of NZ’s exports to China will and 16% of our imports. Hence a large chunk of New Zealand's trade fortunes are receive preferential treatment. Over the next ten years, the agreement will remove tied in with the Chinese economy. Our second biggest trading partner, Australia, is tariffs for an additional 12 lines of wood and paper products. Two-way trade with similarly exposed to the fortunes of the Chinese economy (with close to 30% of China has increased in value from $28bn in 2018 up to close to $33bn over the year Australian exports going to China). With Australia accounting for about 17% of our to September 2019. The upgraded trade agreement is also aimed at making it easier exports, the impact for NZ of a downturn in China would be further amplified through for Chinese imports coming into NZ and also the delivery of NZ electrical products into this channel. China. The recent outbreak of coronavirus poses a threat to trade exports to China, but it remains too early to gauge the full impact. China has been talking about a managed ‘cooling’ in its economy for some time now, acknowledging that previous 7%+ growth rates were not sustainable forever. In Commodity prices reality, GDP growth in China slowed to 6% YoY in the September 2019 quarter and is Prices for NZ’s major commodities have remained robust over the past year. Dairy has expected to average around that level over the next couple of years. While this is a benefitted from strong demand and weaker global supply. In response, Fonterra raised marked slowdown from double-digit growth seen 10-15 years ago, it remains a its forecast milk price range for the 2019/2020 season from $6.55 - $7.55 per kgMS comparatively healthy growth rate by global standards. Furthermore, the ongoing to $7.00-$7.60 per kgMS in December. Lamb and beef export prices also reached new rise of China’s middle class population continues to provide demand for soft record highs in the September 2019 quarter, rising 6.0% and 5.4% QoQ respectively. commodity exports – of which NZ is a major supplier. In this regard, we are luckier The price for forestry products has declined in recent months, down almost 10% over than our neighbours across the ditch who largely export hard commodities to China the September quarter, following on from a small decline the previous quarter. such as iron ore, for which demand is more dependent on investment spending. New Zealand's Top 10 Export Destinations New Zealand's Top 10 Import Origins 2.1% 1.9% 1.9% European Union China, People's Republic of 2.7% 3.5% 3.0% 3.7% China, People's Republic of Australia 5.4% Other 17.8% Australia 22.8% 4.8% United States of America Other 5.1% 10.7% United States of America European Union Japan 11.1% 16.0% Japan Korea, Republic of Singapore 11.0% 16.6% Hong Kong (Special 13.6% United Arab Emirates Administrative Region) 15.7% India Thailand 15.3% Singapore Korea, Republic of Source: Statistics New Zealand Source: Statistics New Zealand 29
New Zealand Freight Task 30
New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2020 | New Zealand Freight Task New Zealand freight task New Zealand freight task The primary sector is New Zealand’s key NFDS 2017 freight forecast vs 2017/18 actuals generator of domestic freight, much of it The information in this section is drawn destined for export. from the National Freight Demand Study 120 (NFDS). The first National Freight In general, with the exception of logs, the 100 Million tonnes Demand Study (2008) guided freight volume of agricultural products have not 80 infrastructure and investment and land- increased substantially since 2012. This 60 use planning decisions across the public reflects slowing growth in the production 40 and private sectors. of dairy and meat products in particular. 20 The NFDS was partially updated in 2014 Growth in agricultural product volumes is - with data to 2012, and in 2019 with data forecast to be limited to 2042, with to 2017/18. volumes expected to remain stable over this period. Favourable export conditions Total freight volumes were 278 million and a buoyant construction sector have tonnes in 2017/18, compared to forecast supported strength in forestry, while 2017 forecast (NFDS 2014) 2017/18 actual freight volumes of 260 million tonnes for growth in horticulture in terms of value 2017, in the 2014 study. This indicates Source: NFDS 2014 & 2017/2018 and volume is also anticipated. growth in freight volumes was higher than anticipated over the period between the Petroleum and coal freight are NFDS 2012 vs 2017/18 actuals two studies (top right). concentrated in a few key regions where 100 the resources are located and extracted, Since 2012 the overall freight task has 80 coal from the West Coast and Waikato, Million tonnes grown by 10.5% (bottom right). Growth petroleum from Taranaki and Northland 60 occurred primarily in forestry, building where it is imported and refined. Results and other construction materials and 40 for coal and petroleum are mixed, with a retail / general freight. drop in export coal volumes offsetting 20 Road remains the dominant mode for growth in petroleum since 2012. - freight movements in terms of both Building and other materials (i.e. tonnes and tonne-kms. Rail has declined aggregate and cement), are also as a proportion of freight moved, due to produced in high volumes, although the Kaikoura earthquakes and a reduction generally close to domestic markets given in coal movements. their bulk and relatively low unit value. 2012 actual 2017/2018 actual Manufactured and retail goods, whether Source: NFDS 2014 & 2017/2018 domestically made or imported, are usually smaller, of greater unit value and are transported greater distances. 31
New Zealand ports and freight yearbook 2020 | New Zealand Freight Task Regional freight generation Regional freight This is similar for forestry, where warm New Zealand regions generation climate and lower-value land have attracted substantial plantings in: Clear patterns are evident in domestic Northland; Waikato; Bay of Plenty; freight flows. Primary producing areas Northland Gisborne; Hawkes Bay; and Tasman / generate flows to export ports, typically Nelson / Marlborough. via processing facilities. Population is a major driver of both consumption and Crude oil flows are either a direct export Auckland Bay of Plenty manufacturing activity. (from Taranaki) or direct import (to Marsden Point in Northland). Domestic The “Golden Triangle” (Auckland, transport of petroleum products is Waikato Waikato, Bay of Plenty) combines both primarily from the Northland refinery via Gisborne population and primary industry pipeline and coastal distribution, with a production (forestry and dairy) to rising direct import share, and then by account for 45% of all freight tonnage truck to the nation’s service stations. Taranaki Hawke’s Bay produced. Cement is manufactured at a plant in Canterbury is the dominant freight Manawatu Northland for distribution by coastal ships generator in the South Island producing and then road and rail. Cement was also 15% of the national freight task. manufactured in the West Coast of the Manufacturing and retail freight tonnage South Island but this has been Wellington correlate strongly with population, superseded by direct import. notably in Auckland and Canterbury, Tasman Nelson Marlborough Southland hosts the Tiwai Point West Coast which host manufacturing hubs, large Aluminium Smelter which generates scale distribution centers, and receive import and export flows. Canterbury consumer goods through their ports. The primary sector is located in regions offering favourable topography, climate, and soil. Waikato, Taranaki, Manawatu, and Southland are well-suited to dairy Otago Southland production, as is Canterbury if suitable irrigation is available. 32
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