100% Renewable Power Nightmare, Dream or Reality? - Antonella Battaglini
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100% Renewable Power
Nightmare, Dream or Reality?
Antonella Battaglini Kyoto Club, Roma 16-02-2011Energiekonzept
Global and European Development
Roadmap to 2050
Slide 2Nightmare - Incubo
...“Affinché i prezzi rimangano accessibili a tutti non possiamo
fare a meno di carbone e nucleare“ (appello dell‘industria
tedesca al governo conservatore)
Dream - Sogno
“Dobbiamo essere realisti: la Germania ha
bisogno di carbone e nucleare“Nightmare response
The German ”Energiekonzept”
An attempt for a comprehensive strategy for the time between
now and 2050Targets
100
90
80
70
Target (%)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2008 2020 2030 2040 2050
GHG reduction (base: 1990) REN
REN power Power demand reductionTarget scenarios: Power
22-31% import (roughly
~30% less electricity
half renewable)
19-24% fossil &
nuclear power
75-81% of generation
renewableTarget scenarios: Power
Offshore 2050: 17-
28 GW
Onshore 2050: 36
GW
PV 2020: 33 GW
PV 2050: 39 GWHow to do this Markets; fossil and nuclear power plants • Creation of a functioning European power market • Extension of nuclear power operation time until 2035 • Support for CCS (only small (
How to do this Cost-efficient expansion of renewables • Faster reduction of PV FITs • Dispatchability bonus/market premium for virtual power plants - Targeted operation of biomass as back-up for fluctuating REN • Short term: higher but shorter FIT for offshore wind • Medium term: Tendering for offshore wind, instead of FIT • Adaptation of legislation for building permits for onshore/offshore wind expansion
How to do this
Grid expansion
• 2011: ”Zielnetz 2050”
- Grid expansion; overlay grid; North Sea grid and cluster-connections
for offshore wind; better integration of DE in EU grid
• Faster grid expansion
- Increase public acceptance through ”information offensive”
• German rolling 10-year grid plan (yearly updates)
• Review of grid tariffs
• Introduction of Smart meters (no concrete target)How to do this Integration of renewables • More market-based REN support - Optional market premium to be introduced in 2012 EEG review? • More responsibilities for REN in system, control energy • Review of possibilities for capacity market • Expansion of storage capacities - Exploitation of all pumped storage potentials in DE - Usage of Norwegian/Alpine pumped storage potentials - Increased R&D in various storage technologies - 1 million electric cars by 2020, 6 million by 2030 – use as storage?
Conclusions for the Energiekonzept No real strategy after 2020 Lack of coherence in measures and numbers Clearly in need for improvement Attempt to reopen the nuclear debate beyond life extension Denial of a rising industry
Realtà – Nel 2009 malgrado la crisi finaziaria EU e USA hanno investito più nelle rinnovabili che non in nucleare e energie fossili Global REN installed capacity in 2009 GW 78 for $ 119bn Global REN capacity 2009 . Source Global Wind capacity 2009 . Source GWEC 2010; IHA 2010; REN21 2010 GWEC 2010
Realtà – Nel 2010 EU ha investito 65 milliardi nel
solare soltanto. In Cina 19 milliardi di credito sono stati
garantiti al solare da una sola banca. Stocks crescono
del 65%
Global REN installed capacity in 2009 GW 78 for $ 119bn
PV Capacity Growth Source EPIA 2010Realtà I prezzi dell’elettricità continuano a calare, malgrado I prezzi al consumatore continuino a salire. L’eolico ha già raggiunto grid parity e determina il calo dei prezzi sui mercati. Non è ragionevole mantenere supporti per iI fotovoltaico ai livelli italiani, (E. Council resolution) Nei mercati finanziari non c’è disponibilità di capitale per nuove centrali nucleari La rete continua ad essere indispensabile per ogni scenario
Reality – Costs of REN technologies have been decreasing and some already reached grid parity.
Reality - System Reliability - Combining regional
demand curves reduces volatility *
Regional demand variation from average per hour on weekend day *
% *
*
*
*
*
*
* *
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
* Hrs *
CET *
Regional demand variation from average per day throughout the year
%
*
*
*
*
*
*
SOURCE: Imperial College; KEMA analysis
17Generation output by technology as modeled for 2050
Yearly energy balance, 60% RES pathway, 20% DR, TWh per week
Higher wind in Overall system
the winter peak demand in
120 winter
Higher solar in OCGT
the summer 1
Storage
100
Hydro
CSP
80
PV
Wind
60
Geothermal
Biomass
40
Oil
Gas
20
Coal
Nuclear
-
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 Demand
Week
1 Storage included in the model relates to the existing hydro storage available across the regions
SOURCE: Imperial College, KEMA, team analysisDR helps to follow peak supply, maximizing 60% RES, 20% DR
the use of renewables WEEK 32 – SUNNY WEEK
1
1 The graph shows how the original demand line (purple) is shifted to a higher level (red line) by DR to capture the higher PV production
SOURCE: Imperial College; KEMA; roadmap 2050 team analysis
19Different approaches
Slide 21
Future SuperSmart Grid
North Sea EU Continental
North See MENA-EU
Offshore Storage
Super Grid MENA CSP
Offshore
Grid Super Grid
Smart structure full of DG100% renewable electricity A 2050 vision and roadmap for Europe and North Africa
A roadmap to 2050
Key findings:
1. It is possible to create a 100% REN power system in EU and NA by only using
processes that have already started. This is not a radical proposal, but neither is
it trivial.
2. The grid is the key enabler & most grid issues must be completed before 2020.
3. No technology breakthrough is needed.
4. A European Approach is needed
Key observations:
• Most enabling areas need to be completed before 2020.
• Predictability and political leadership is required
• A European perspective needs to replace national ones in strategic planning
We need to start now...
Slide 24The opportunity exists to achieve 100% renewable electricity
for Europe and North Africa
Develop
new business models
Manage the transition
Encourage energy cooperation with
developing countries and regions
Reduce import dependency and develop
interdependency across the regions
Electricity price predictability and stability
Competitiveness on global markets
Eliminate energy
povertygrazie 100% renewable electricity A roadmap 2050 Roadmap A practical guide to a to 2050 for Europe and North Africa prosperous low carbon Europe www.SuperSmartGrid.net www.roadmap2050.eu Antonella Battaglini SEFEP and PIK antonella.battaglini@sefep.eu - antonella@pik-potsdam.de +49 30 847121197
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