Work.Spring 2021 Because business is about people - CIPD

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Work.Spring 2021 Because business is about people - CIPD
Work.
                                 Spring 2021

Because business is about people

                     Why did debt become
                            a dirty word?

                 Rush Limbaugh, Fox News
                 and the day Obama tried to
                          cancel Christmas

                Five fundamental questions
                      for the HR profession

                 From the seven dwarves to
                  Beyoncé – a history of the
                         workplace in song
Work.Spring 2021 Because business is about people - CIPD
Work.Spring 2021 Because business is about people - CIPD
Work.
Because business is about people

When the prime minister recently predicted commuters
would return to offices in “a few short months”, his dismissal
of a permanent shift to remote working would have chimed
with many. Among them, no doubt, was David Solomon, CEO
of Goldman Sachs, who has controversially described it as
an aberration for a company that has an “innovative,
collaborative apprenticeship culture”. Others, however,
would have taken an entirely different view, notably those
with long commutes and an impressive home office set-up.
Such different attitudes to remote work, and indeed the
wider issue of personal choice over how, when and where we
work, is just one of the issues HR teams will have to navigate
as we start to think about what the working world might look
like after the pandemic. In our special feature starting on
page 44, we take a look at some of the questions that the
profession needs to consider, from whether employers are
ready to embrace more flexible working patterns, to the
impact of the pandemic on the rise of the machines.
Claire Warren, editor
claire.warren@haymarket.com

Features in detail p4
Perspectives: distilled management thinking p6
15 minutes with… Rajarshi Banerjee p12
Debt: how much is too much? p14
A history of work in song p26
Matt Atkinson on the power of purpose p28
Media and the advent of fake news p32
Interview: Unicef UK’s Claire Fox p40
Five essential questions for HR p44
Debrief: business research, reports and insight p62
Further reading p72
The off-piste guide to acronyms p74

                                                      03
Work.Spring 2021 Because business is about people - CIPD
FEATURES IN DETAIL

Does debt                          A history of                  Q&A: Matt                    Media: facts
really matter?                     work in song                  Atkinson                     and faux news
p14                                p26                           p28                          p32

Such is the profligacy              ‘I was looking for a job,     Matt Atkinson has a          One thing we can all
with which the UK                  and then I found a job,       dream: that one day,         agree on is that these days
government has loaded up           and heaven knows I’m          businesses will be judged    it’s harder for us to agree
on debt since the outset of        miserable now’ crooned        as much on what they do      on anything. The partisan
the coronavirus crisis, it         Morrissey dolefully on a      for society as on their      divide in the west is no
borrowed £1bn a day in             song that captures the        profits. The chief            longer an argument about
2020. It’s a huge sum that         prevailing presentation       customer officer at the      opinions, it’s about facts
begs the question: just            of work in popular music.     Co-op, which is owned        – is climate change a
what is debt, and where            Occasionally the gloom        by its members, believes     scientific reality or a
does it come from? In fact,        lifts – Disney’s seven        that “trust, ethics and      global conspiracy, for
the concept of credit is so        dwarfs sound chirpy           transparency will            instance. One of the
ancient, says Andrew               enough as they sing ‘heigh    become increasingly          fiercest debates is whether
Saunders, it may pre-date          ho’ – but such buoyancy       important currencies in      the media merely reflects
the introduction of                is, Work. discovers,          business success”. The       this growing divide, or
physical money itself.             exceptional. More typical     group is performing well     has helped to engineer it.
Monarchies borrowed                is Bob Dylan’s Maggie’s       – growing its share of the   Talking to authors Peter
from bankers to finance             Farm, an angry, eloquent      British grocery market –     Pomerantsev and Simon

                                                                                                                             Mondadori/Getty Images; Colin Stout; FOX News Network, LLC; WireImage, China News Service/Getty Images; Julian Dodd
wars; by the 1960s,                indictment of working         while still doing good       Kuper, Paul Simpson
consumers were being               conditions in the US          (by, for example, backing    explores the role played
encouraged to use credit           service sector. Dolly         footballer Marcus            by right-wing broadcaster
cards to own new-fangled           Parton’s 9 to 5, another      Rashford’s free school       Rush Limbaugh, Fox
household appliances. The          eloquent statement about      meals campaign). A           News and – back in its
buy-now-pay-later models           the modern workplace, is      former ad man and Tesco      heyday – The Sun
popularised today by               infused with just enough      CMO, Atkinson says the       newspaper in promoting a
Klarna and co are just             optimism to suggest the       Co-operative name is         particular worldview, the
throwbacks to medieval             singer will keep pouring      reflected in the way it       consequence of the
models of lending. But at          herself a cup of ambition     does business: “There        increasingly blurred
least, unlike in ancient           in the hope that her          is much more desire to       distinction between
Mesopotamia, your family           dream will come true.         cooperate and much less      entertainment and news,
won’t be sold into slavery         Well, we’ve all been there,   tension about owning         and the implications for
if you cannot meet your            haven’t we?                   and controlling              society if we retreat into
financial obligations.                                            everything here,” he         our individual echo
                                                                 tells Andrew Saunders.       chambers.
Andrew Saunders is a                                             “The driving principle
business journalist whose                                        is one of mutual gain.”      Paul Simpson is a journalist
work also appears in The                                                                      and author. His latest book,
Times and The Telegraph                                                                       The Colour Code, will
                                                                                              be published this autumn
                                                                                              by Profile Books

                              04
Work.Spring 2021 Because business is about people - CIPD
Unicef UK’s                     What’s next?                                                            Debrief p62-71
Claire Fox                      Five questions for HR                                                   Corporate ethics
                                                                                                        Business leaders may have
p40                             p44                                                                     taken a pay cut during the
                                                                                                        pandemic, but few have agreed
                                                                                                        to lose their bonus.
As the world’s largest          On 23 March last year when Boris Johnson announced                      Management
vaccine buyer, Unicef will      the country was going into the first national lockdown,                  Supervisors who display
play a central role in the      few of us could have anticipated quite how long the                     emotional intelligence help
distribution of Covid           pandemic would be with us for, or the lasting impact it                 create an environment where
                                                                                                        employees learn new skills.
vaccines and is currently       would have on workplaces across the country. After a
preparing to deliver two        year in which a significant chunk of the population has                  Inclusion
                                                                                                        Women in the boardroom may
billion of them to low and      been able to work from home, while others have worked                   lead to inaccurate perceptions
middle-income countries.        on the frontlines, faced furlough or lost their jobs, Work.             about workplace equality.
Unicef UK staff won’t           looks at the essential questions HR professionals must
                                                                                                        Healthcare
directly deliver them but       address as we consider what working life will be like                   The National Health Service
their fundraising efforts       after we emerge from the coronavirus crisis.                            needs a governance overhaul.
are vital. Helping staff                                                                                Mental health
understand their piece in       Will we be able to say goodbye to the 9-5?                              Burnout has a much greater
this jigsaw is all in a day’s   A year is a long time out of the office for habit-loving humans.        impact on work stress than the
                                The question is whether it will be long enough to encourage
work for the UK’s chief         employers to embrace more flexible working practices.
                                                                                                        other way around.
operating officer, Claire                                                                               Cybersecurity
Fox, as is ensuring that        Are the robots coming faster now?                                       When staff assume company
                                                                                                        measures to combat phishing
work doesn’t negatively         Automation and digitisation appear to have accelerated as
                                employers rush to respond to the pandemic. What we don’t know           attacks are effective they may
impact their wellbeing.                                                                                 become less vigilant.
                                yet is what impact that will ultimately have on jobs.
That means identifying
                                                                                                        Appreciation
which tasks are not a           Has the pandemic set equality back?                                     In the age of the email, hand
priority has been as            There’s evidence revealing the negative effects of the crisis on        written thank you notes are
important a part of             specific groups of staff, but the good news is many businesses           surprisingly well received.
her pandemic capacity           have recognised the issue and seem willing to tackle it.
                                                                                                        Performance
planning as deciding what                                                                               CEOs at companies that
                                Is now the time to split HR?
really must be done. “In a      It’s not a new question, but with HR’s growing remit is now the
                                                                                                        consistently perform may
way, the pandemic has                                                                                   pay a high price for failure.
                                time to revisit it? We asked two experts for their thoughts.
provided quite a good                                                                                   Planning
lesson,” she tells Jo           Have we relied on staff goodwill for too long?                          Before another crisis hits we
                                Many employees have been called upon to go above and beyond             should discuss how workers
Faragher. “Organisations                                                                                would be supported.
                                over the last year, but they won’t be prepared to do it forever.
haven’t been good enough
at prioritising and                                                                                     Skills
                                                                                                        Remote workers who display
stopping things.”                                                                                       five special skills have a greater
                                                                                                        chance of being successful.
Jo Faragher is a freelance                                                                              Evidence-based HR
writer and editor                                                                                       We need to be clear about what
specialising in HR                                                                                      employee engagement means.
and employment                                                                                          Executive representation
                                                                                                        The impact of female leaders
                                                                                                        may depend on cultural norms.
                                                                                                        Workplace technology
                                                                                                        Smartphone usage is not a
                                                                                                        good predictor of anxiety,
                                                                                                        stress or depression.
                                                                                                        Financial transparency
                                                                                                        Companies that are open and
                                                                                                        honest about their finances
                                                                                                        have better relationships
                                                                                                        between managers and staff.

                                                                                                   05
Work.Spring 2021 Because business is about people - CIPD
PERSPECTIVES
                                          MANAGEMENT THINKING DISTILLED

Q&A SAR AH JAFFE

Even the best job is
about making money
                                           would say that almost any worker       Why we need to
                                           can be affected by this myth, but
                                           that it is inculcated most strongly    think like a scientist
                                           in feminised caring professions
                                           and creative professions.                 THERE ARE A NUMBER of
                                                                                  neurological conditions that leave
                                         How did we get to this point?            a person convinced something is
                                          The short answer is that the shift      true when it is not. Anton syndrome,
                                          from an industrial economy to           where sufferers believe they can see
                                          an economy driven by services           despite clear evidence they are blind,
                                          means there is more work that           is one such example.
                                          requires you to smile on the job,          Fortunately, few people ever
                                          to like it or at least to perform       experience it but, as Adam Grant,
   MORE AND MORE of us are                happiness for the customer. The         author of Think Again, told the US’s
making sacrifices in the name of           destruction of labour unions and        Sunday Today programme, it
a job we enjoy but, says Sarah Jaffe,     other institutions of working-          captures something all of us have
author of Work Won’t Love You             class solidarity has produced an        experienced – moments when we
Back, it’s all one big con. We’ve been    economy full of individualised          are unaware of where our abilities
tricked into believing that certain       workers seeking fulfilment, who          fall short: “I like to think of it as the

                                                                                                                              Words: Claire Warren. Pictures: Amanda Jaffe; SWNS Group; Peter Hurley; Internet Archives Book Images
work isn’t really work at all.            are told the way to achieve that is     ‘I’m not biased bias’, which is the
                                          to work hard and compete with           tendency to recognise flaws in other
Why won’t work love you back?             others to get to the top. At the top,   people’s thinking, but assume that
 Ultimately, we work because we           presumably, our reward is better,       we ourselves are immune to them.”
 need to pay the bills, and we have       more lovable work, which still             The most successful people, from
 these jobs not because bosses are        translates into ‘more work’.            entrepreneurs to politicians, think
 benevolent ‘job creators’, but                                                   like a scientist, questioning their
 because they are profiting from          Is there a way out of this?              own beliefs and embracing being
 our work. Even the nicest boss,           This is a political problem, not       wrong, says Grant. Trouble is,
 the most fulfilling job, exists so         a personal one. More people            research shows that the smarter
 people can make money, not to             having discussions about how           you are the more you might struggle
 make us happy.                            we’d like the workplace to look        to update your thinking. “I see far
                                           and what we might do to get            too many people in the world who
Who is most affected by the myth           there is going to be necessary.        listen to opinions that make them
of the labour of love?                     The workers I profiled have all         feel good, instead of ideas that
  In the book I follow two threads,        taken action on the job, changed       make them think hard,” he says,
  caring work and creative work, to        their working conditions and, in       adding that we all need to get into
  see how the narrative of loving          some cases, the laws, to improve       the habit of reconsidering. That
  your work spread from a narrow           their situation. The pandemic          doesn’t mean we always have to
  expectation to one that affects          has reminded us that we can            change our minds, but if
  many, many workers. The other            change a lot about the workplace       “knowledge is power, knowing
  day I drove by a billboard for           incredibly quickly – maybe we          what you don’t know is wisdom”.
  Amazon warehouse jobs that said          can figure out how to do that
  something along the lines of ‘find        intentionally, rather than only        Adam Grant is a professor at the Wharton
  a job delivering smiles’. So I           in response to a crisis.               School of the University of Pennsylvania

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                                                                                             I N G P OI
                                                                                        LK                N
                                                                                    A

                                                                               T

                                                                                                          T
                                                Should employers use
Old norms hold                                software to monitor staff?
business back                                    Surveillance has come under the spotlight since the start of the
                                                  pandemic-induced shift to remote working. Research shows
   BUSINESS, says Judy Samuelson,                  one in five organisations are using or planning to introduce
is the most influential institution of            software tools to monitor the work of home-based employees.
our day. If we are to make progress                  But is it a good idea, and does it improve productivity?
on intractable problems, from
climate change to inequality,
we need the talent, investment,
problem-solving skills and global
reach of the business community.                                               EXPERTS’ VIEW
“Our vision of business is crowded
with stories of greed laced with                          TIM RINGO                                           JONATHAN RENNIE
short-term thinking,” she says. “Yet                          Author,                                                Partner,
as we step into the ecosystem of                  Solving the Productivity Puzzle                                      TLT
business today, we experience
profound change in attitudes and           Before the pandemic, the global economy was              It would be wrong to dismiss monitoring as
a new kind of business vision.”             already in the midst of the longest period of            a tactic that is only used by unscrupulous
                                             declining people productivity in recorded            organisations to chain people to their desks, or
   Despite this, old norms, from how       economic history. A key factor in this has been           to try and catch them out and build a case
finance is taught in the classroom            the rise of ‘presenteeism’ which, research            against them. It can be a legitimate business
to the incentives and rewards that           shows, leads to suboptimal mental health,            practice and, in some industries, like financial
focus the minds of executives on the         lack of sleep and poor financial wellbeing.                services, it is required by the regulator.
share price, are holding us back and             Data shows that presenteeism has
                                                   transferred to the home office.                 Now that more people are working remotely,
need to be broken down.                                                                           it’s natural for businesses to want to use some
   In The Six New Rules of Business,         Employers may be permitted by law to use              form of monitoring to measure performance
Samuelson outlines the shifts in            employee monitoring and tracking software                and productivity. It could also be used as an
attitudes and mindsets that she            to check up on workers, but just because they            indicator of wellbeing – to ensure people are
                                            can does not mean they should. This forced                not suffering, for example, from a lack of
believes are already in play against         home working should be an opportunity to             engagement with their job, perhaps as a result
a backdrop of internet-powered             break the cycle of increasing presenteeism by                of mental health issues. Likewise, if an
transparency, a more powerful               giving people more flexibility and autonomy            employer can see that someone is consistently
worker voice, the decline in the             on when and how work gets done. Recent               working late, this could be a red flag. Employee
importance of capital and the               studies reveal giving people more autonomy             monitoring could indicate where more clarity
                                             greatly reduces stress levels and improves               or support from the employer is needed.
complexity of global supply chains.          wellbeing. People should be measured on
These include: intangibles drive              output, not on time tied to the PC screen.           Employment and data protection laws must
value, not the balance sheet (but                                                                  be considered. There’s an implied legal duty
can’t be measured in traditional            One emerging area of employee tracking that              on businesses to maintain staff trust and
                                             could be a trend for the better is measuring         confidence. Firms must act in a proportionate
ways); purpose over profits; and            stress levels at work. Several organisations are         and justified manner; inform employees of
culture is king (competition for            experimenting with wearables that measure                 their intention to monitor; be mindful of
talent and a focus on innovation take        and detect rising cortisone on the skin. The         discrimination; and use safeguards to prevent
precedence over capital markets).          devices can predict harmful stress levels up to          abuse or over-monitoring. A thorough data
                                               an hour before they occur and allow an                  protection impact assessment is also
                                              employee to step back from the brink by              recommended to help identify any potential
Judy Samuelson is founder of The Aspen      participating in stress decelerating activities        issues, and is mandatory under the GDPR if
Institute’s Business and Society Program        such as mindfulness and meditation.                      the processing of data is high risk.

                                                                                                              07
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                      OM I N
                 NC            G

             I

           Techpats
                 Who are they?
  Before the pandemic they were the digital
    nomads – people who operated on the
premise that ‘wherever I lay my laptop, that’s
  my home office’. Thanks to Covid, many of
 them have become techpats, settling down,
 possibly permanently, in sunnier climes with
                                                                                             Social purpose is key
 laid-back lifestyles, lower taxes and relaxed
residency rules. Cyprus is a leading haven for
                                                                                             to fulfilling work
the British: an English-speaking country, with
 2,700-3,500 hours of sun a year (compared
to around 1,460 in London) and a top income         AI canaries: a new                          WHETHER WE LIKE IT or not,
                                                                                             work has a direct impact on our
  tax rate of 35 per cent where, after just 60
       days, you can become a resident.             tool for business                        happiness, says Bea Boccalandro,
                                                                                             citing a Gallup study that shows if
             Is this a trend, or a fad?               WHEN MARK ZUCKERBERG                   we’re dissatisfied with work, it’s
It’s not just Cyprus, countries such as Antigua     founded Facebook he didn’t plan          likely (68 per cent) that we’re not
and Barbuda, Barbados, Croatia, Estonia and
 Georgia have all made it easier for foreigners
                                                    for “third-party abuse and political     highly satisfied with life. Not
    to work remotely. There has always been         interference to run rampant on the       all of us can have meaningful jobs,
  a section of the workforce inspired more by       platform”. Yet, write Nitin Nohria       concedes the author of Do Good
   Beat Generation writer Jack Kerouac than         and co-author Hemant Taneja, MD          At Work, but everyone, even those
 Jack Welch – in one 2018 survey, 22.7 million
                                                    of General Catalyst, in the Harvard      who have little authority, can
    Americans were either digital nomads or
  aspired to be. But the pandemic has proved        Business Review, a platform meant        find work more fulfilling if they
   that billions of people can work efficiently     to make the world more connected         adjust how they work to engage
  from home and, if you have enough money,          “ended up having devastating             in social purpose.
a certain mindset and the right job, your home      unintended consequences, such as            Boccalandro, who dubs this ‘job
    office can be anywhere (or it can be once
 travel restrictions and the partial or complete
                                                    the recent storming of the Capitol”.     purposing’, cites an administrative
           closure of borders are lifted).            Unintended consequences are, by        assistant who noticed that cleaning
                                                    their very nature, hard to envision,     staff at her company were throwing
       We’re talking about a particular             but entrepreneurs and investors          half-used toilet paper away. Rather
         demographic though, right?
                                                    must step up, say the authors. In        than see it go to landfill, she now
   Yes and no – this will not be an option for
widget makers, but it is a realistic aspiration     the past this was challenging given      takes it to a homeless shelter,
  for the self-employed, entrepreneurs and          businesses had to rely on human          reducing their overheads and
 knowledge workers, particularly millennials        foresight or closely monitor the         helping the planet in the process.
   and Gen Zs. In the US, the flight from big        impact of their technologies, but we        Such acts, no matter how modest,
cities has accelerated during the pandemic:
  location analytics firm Unacast estimates
                                                    now have a new tool that could help:     make individuals feel more fulfilled
that there was a net loss of 70,000 people in       artificial intelligence. AI models, for   but, she says, there’s also lots of
   the New York metropolitan area in 2020,          instance, are already able to search     evidence to suggest social purpose
     which amounts to a $34bn drop in the           for fake news before it reaches a        makes people physically and
      region’s economy. In the UK, PwC is
                                                    mass audience. “Deep learning AI         mentally healthier, as well as more
    predicting a further shift away from city
                  living in 2021.                   can help identify patterns that          productive. One study, for example,
                                                    humans may not readily discern           compared workers who were told
    What does this mean for employers?              and gives us new-found predictive        their work helped charitable causes
   If nothing else, techpats provide further        ability,” the authors say. “Unleashing   with workers in identical jobs who
  proof that finding the right mix in the new
       blended workplace will be far from
                                                    algorithmic canaries into our            weren’t. Those who believed they
 straightforward. The rigid, restrictive model      technologies is the first step we         were pursuing social purpose were
where almost everyone was on the premises           must take to anticipate and mitigate     24 per cent faster and had 43 per
almost all of the time had one cardinal virtue:     unintended consequences.”                cent less downtime.
   it was simple. Techpats are one of many
                                                                                                                                       Susan Young

     pieces that organisations – and HR in
particular – will have to fit together in a jigsaw   Nitin Nohria is former dean of Harvard   Bea Boccalandro is founder of VeraWorks
  of post-pandemic employment practices.            Business School                          and teaches corporate social purpose

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PERSPECTIVES

The great dispersion                              TOMAS CHAMORRO-PREMUZIC
won’t be good for all                                  ENGAGEMENT DOESN’T GUARANTEE SUCCESS
   THE MOST ENDURING                             OUR INDUSTRY HAS spent the               compare different groups on overall
feature of the pandemic will be to            last decade obsessing over employee         scores we are measuring not just
accelerate existing trends, and that,         engagement scores, resulting in the         how they feel today, but how they
says Scott Galloway, will include             stigmatisation of the unmotivated           feel in general, and the easiest way to
the trend that “encapsulates the              worker. Before the Covid crisis,            inflate your scores would be to hire
greatest reshuffling of stakeholder           a primary concern for knowledge             happy and easy-to-please employees,
value in recent history”.                     workers was whether they could              which would sadly not result in any
   Similar to previous macro trends,          find meaning and purpose at work,            performance gains.
like globalisation and digitisation,          a demoralising experience leading               This would likely not result in the
the ‘great dispersion’ offers                 to feelings of guilt and existential        innovation, change and progress
enormous financial opportunities.              anxiety in those who could find              that are so badly needed by
“Amazon dispersed retail to desktop,          neither spiritual fulfilment nor             organisations either, given these
to mobile, to voice. Netflix dispersed         psychological attachment.                   are usually fuelled by high doses of
DVDs to our mailbox, then to every               While it’s certainly preferable for      dissatisfaction. Indeed, it is often
screen,” Galloway writes on his blog.         managers to have engaged                                  contrarian, difficult
“The pandemic is causing dispersion           teams, the science              “Despite the focus on and non-conformist
in even larger industries.”                   suggests this is a far from engagement over the personalities that
   But while some businesses, such            straightforward issue.            last decade, levels     become change agents,
as home exercise company Peloton,             The correlation between          have remained low”       precisely because they
Zoom and, of course, Amazon, have             engagement and                                            are not satisfied
had a good pandemic, we live in               performance, for instance, rarely           with the status quo. Every
a “winner-takes-all economy” and              exceeds 0.40, meaning there is just         important accomplishment in our
the restaurant, travel, hospitality           a 16 per cent overlap between               history is the result of profoundly
and live entertainment industries,            employees’ levels of enthusiasm and         dissatisfied humans, who would
for instance, have “scrambled to              their productivity. In other words,         probably have scored quite low on
escape obliteration”, he says.                performance is driven by many               employee engagement.
   Previous paradigm shifts have              other factors, including talent,                Contrary to popular belief, and
“catalysed massive prosperity, but            expertise and, of course, extrinsic         the populist positive psychology
little progress”. This time we must           incentives (both carrots and sticks).       revolution, organisations are not
be more conscious of the potential               At least half of the variance in         in the business of making people
downsides, including weakening                engagement scores is explained by           happy. Nor should they be. Despite
ties of community and cooperation.            employees’ personalities. If I’m            the focus on engagement over the
“The pandemic has given us a                  naturally grumpy and negative, my           last decade, levels have remained
preview of our dispersed future,”             baseline engagement score may be            dismally low. Perhaps if we stop
says Galloway. “Today we have                 five (out of 10), but if I tend to be        increasing people’s expectations
social distancing – tomorrow the              optimistic and easy going it will           about what they can get from work,
distancing will be structural.”               likely be more like eight. The              we may start to see an increase in
                                              implications are clear: when we             their satisfaction – and performance.
Scott Galloway is professor of marketing at
NYU Stern and author of Post Corona                      Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic is a psychologist, author and entrepreneur

                                                                                                    09
Work.Spring 2021 Because business is about people - CIPD
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                BEST OF

  Fresh thinking from the world-
    famous incubator of ideas
             MIKE O’SULLIVAN
                  Economist
      The end of globalisation (and the
        beginning of something new)
Inequality and record levels of indebtedness
show us that the advantages of globalisation
 have been misdirected. The big question is
   ‘what’s next?’ The future, suggests Mike
O’Sullivan, will be about shared values rather
 than geography: “The era we’re leaving was

                                                  The trouble with
characterised by a connected world trying to
   shrink and come together on the basis of
   economic goals and geography. The new
  world order will be defined by rival, distinct

                                                  being viewed as ‘nice’
    and different ways of doing things, and
  ultimately collaboration based on values.”

              JULIA GILLARD
       Former prime minister of Australia
         NGOZI OKONJO-IWEALA                         REFER TO A COLLEAGUE as               other hand, you don’t want to be
       Former finance minister of Nigeria
                                                  nice and the likelihood is you may       a jerk. You don’t want to be someone
    Essential lessons for women leaders
There’s no right way to be a woman leader, say    not necessarily be being that nice       who doesn’t tune in to other people,
Julia Gillard and Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. Instead,   yourself. In a workplace setting,        who doesn’t listen and who says or
   you must be true to yourself. Among their      especially a competitive one, says       does things that people resent.
  other lessons are the importance of sitting     psychologist Daniel Goleman, the         Emotional intelligence lies between
      down with your mentors, sponsors,
supporters and friends to discuss how you are
                                                  term may be associated with being        those two extremes,” says Goleman.
  going to deal with stereotyping and sexism,     pleasant to work with but also with         There are four components of EI:
 and not shying away from taking up space in      a tendency to be easily manipulated      self-awareness, self-management,
 the world. “Don’t assume you’re too junior or    and to avoid confrontations.             social awareness and relationship
  people are too busy,” they say, advocating
                                                     In the 25 years since Goleman’s       management. Together, explains
          reaching out and networking.
                                                  book, Emotional Intelligence, was        Goleman, they create an effective
                                                  published, one of the most common        framework for leadership, with
                                                  misperceptions has been that             research emphatically showing that
                                                  emotional intelligence (EI) equates      people give their best performance
                                                  to niceness – in the worst sense of      for leaders who have high EI.
                                                  the word – and that can play into           “There is a lot of free-floating
                                                  stereotypes surrounding male and         toxicity in organisations,” says
                                                  female leaders, resulting in             Goleman. “Orders come from the top
                                                  a reluctance from both genders to        that don’t necessarily make sense to
            DAME VIVIAN HUNT                      develop their own EI and that of         the frontline. That’s the nature of
          Senior partner at McKinsey
     How businesses can serve everyone,
                                                  their teams. “Some men may be            the organisation. How well those
             not just shareholders                resistant because they think it          things are done is determined by
   Just as appointing a chief diversity officer   means being too passive,” he says.       emotional intelligence.”
     won’t make a company’s culture more          “Women may resist it because they           For HR teams that want to bring
  inclusive, hiring a chief stakeholder officer
                                                  feel it will feed into the negative      more EI into performance reviews
  won’t ensure business models shift to one
    that values more than just shareholders.      stereotype that they’re too nice;        and training and development, the
   Instead, companies need to get everyone        they’re too easy going with people.”     challenge, he concludes, will be to
 involved – and that starts in the boardroom.        Being nice is part of EI, but it’s    clear up the misperceptions to get
  “We’ve been ticking boxes on ethnicity, age     about being nice appropriately:          people on board.
                                                                                                                                      Zoksang; TED

and gender, says Dame Vivian Hunt. “We don’t
     need tokens. We need people who truly
                                                  “Leaders need to understand that
understand the experience and represent the       EI means being assertive, not being      Daniel Goleman is a psychologist, author
          diversity of our stakeholders.”         passive, not being a patsy but, on the   and former science journalist

                                    10
PERSPECTIVES

                                          MICHAEL COSTELLO
      POOR MENTAL HEALTH MAY BE THE PRICE HIGH PERFORMERS PAY FOR SUCCESS
   HE WAS THE all-in employee:                  So what do we need in place to                  ability to engage with ‘self care’.
married to the desk, laptop and               protect the wellbeing of our high                 Blinded by a huge financial carrot
mobile phone 24/7. Never switching            performers, especially against the                and working 80-hour weeks, many
off, he enjoyed a fast-paced lifestyle        backdrop of an ongoing global crisis?             suffered from FOMO, unable to
leading to declining mental health            Birkbeck University suggests we                   recharge and invest time with loved
and ultimately breakdown. Yet                 tune in for shifts in behaviour and               ones because of the all-in culture.
before this he exceeded his                   emotions, as well as physical signs               One coachee even told me: “The
superior’s wildest dreams. In this            of burnout, such as anxiety, negative             sleep goals we set have worked. I can
case, that high performer is former           attitudes, tiredness, feeling hungry              now sleep for five hours instead of
number 10 Downing Street press                and headaches. Not easy, of course,               six and complete more work!” That’s
secretary Alastair Campbell, but it’s         given many high performers conceal                certainly not what I advocated!
a familiar story across Britain’s             their true thoughts and feelings.                    Such behaviour can often be
businesses – brilliant staff                  Alongside observing these shifts in               driven by unwritten expectation of
repeatedly promoted but at the cost           behaviour, perhaps we also need to                perfection from senior leaders. Some
of family relationships and their                                                               of the directors I’ve spoken to have
mental health.                                       “One coachee told me:                      experienced ‘imposter syndrome’
   In my slightly sweary conversation                 ‘The sleep goals have                     following a promotion, but would
with Campbell (him, not me) for a                    worked. I can sleep for                    never dream of openly sharing their
recent podcast, he described how he                 five hours instead of six                   anxieties with their team for fear
exhibited mood swings, crashes and                 and complete more work’”                     of looking weak. For real culture
signs of burnout at work for years.                                                             change to take place, leaders like
Yet decades later, colleagues                 pay more attention to what we do                  this need to speak openly about
expressed surprise at just how bad            not hear. If employees rarely discuss             their fears and ensure wellbeing is
his mental health had become –                interests outside of work, mention                an integral part of performance
“I would never have known” (this              little about their social or support              management and mentoring
from Ed Miliband) or “Was it really           network, and rarely bring up                      discussions (learning how to switch
that bad?” (Tony Blair).                      anything about home life, it might                off themselves would also help).
   Perhaps these leaders saw what             well be a good time to check in.                     There’s nothing wrong with
was convenient to them at the time,              Bupa recently reported that six                promoting people for hard work,
playing along with the performance.           in 10 business leaders are turning to             loyalty and dedication, but greater
Or perhaps it was just too hard for           unhealthy coping mechanisms. Yet,                 emphasis needs to be placed on
them to go there, to address the              even when high performers do                      working smart, recharging the
elephant in the room. Today, leaders          recognise they are experiencing                   batteries and managing working
who pledge allegiance to their                wellbeing challenges, they can                    boundaries – skills that do not come
organisational values have to ‘go             struggle to help themselves. My                   automatically to employees. It’s time
there’ but the reality is, while they         coaching experience in Silicon                    to embrace collective organisational
may be more willing to address the            Valley confirmed to me that they                   wellbeing and shatter the image of
issue, often they do not know how.            are certainly not promoted on their               the solitary workplace superhero.

                 Michael Costello is a business psychologist. He is director of Workplace Evolution and records its podcast

                                                                                                          11
15
                                                      minutes
                                                      with...

Rajarshi Banerjee
The medical entrepreneur on following
the science, investor diversity and the
world’s largest long Covid study
On... the value of outsiders               I founded Perspectum largely             overwhelmed. ‘Scio’ [the Latin root
 I’m the only child of immigrant           because I wanted to get our              of the English word science] means
 parents who came here to study.           technology into the healthcare           ‘I know’. But we don’t know much
 My dad studied engineering, and           system. If I had stayed in academia,     about this virus, so you want to
 my mum was groundbreaking as              that wouldn’t have happened –            predict before you know – shut
 an Asian woman studying                   there wouldn’t have been the             your borders, for example, before
 computer science in the early 1970s.      funding or the right culture. Now        there is evidence of inbound
 When I went to medical school I           Perspectum is applying that tech         transmission. Following the science
 was a bit of an outsider. I loved it      to run the world’s largest study         just means you can never be ahead
 and made some lifelong friends, but       into long Covid, and the test we         of the pandemic.
 it was a culture shock. It was super      use (COVERSCAN) has just
 competitive and everyone wanted           been granted exceptional use           On... investors
 to follow the same track, but do it       authorisation by the MHRA               I believe in diversity in the investor
 faster. There weren’t many of the         in the UK.                              pool. Yes you want a couple of
 things I liked to do for fun, like                                                ruthless capitalists to keep you
 taking a bottle of Fanta to the park    On… life as a CEO                         focused and make sure there is
 and just kicking a ball about. But       It can be quite scary because you        a return. But you also need some
 the kind of kid who desperately          are responsible for the people who       nurturing types to help you
 wants to get into the first team at       work for you. Some of them are in        manage growth, especially in
 cricket probably isn’t going to be       their first jobs outside academia         a company that has a young
 the person who invents basketball.       and they’ve come here from abroad.       management team and a first-time
 It’s a different mindset.                Right now they may not even be           CEO. And you want some people
                                          able to go back to their mother          who believe firmly in societal good
On... being an entrepreneur               country [because of the pandemic].       – there’s this idea that only public
 I didn’t actually want to be an          But, on the other hand, when they        companies need to think about it,
 entrepreneur. After 10 years’ hard       do cool stuff there is reflected pride    but the boards of private firms
 work as an NHS hospital doctor I         – when COVERSCAN got                     should focus on it too.
 wanted to get a consultant’s job,        authorisation tears of joy were
 which usually means you have to          shed. Look at the firms that have        On … ambitions for the future
                                                                                                                            Interview: Andrew Saunders. Portrait: Colin Stout

 do a PhD. I chose to study cardiac       got exceptional use authorisation        I want this company to be
 imaging because it seemed fairly         recently – Pfizer, AstraZeneca,           self-sustaining and I want our
 easy, but it turned out I was good at    Moderna – and then little old            technology to be delivered in a
 it. We built a really strong research    Perspectum with only 180 people.         regular pipeline. The field we are in
 team and got some patents. The                                                    is ever growing. That means in 20
 novelty was that we applied the         On… following the science                 years’ time we will have gone from
 same technology we were using on         From the start of the pandemic the       saying ‘isn’t it sad that we don’t
 the heart to other organs like the       government has said it would             have scans for pancreatic cancer’
 liver and pancreas: instead of           ‘follow the science’. And yet here       to being able to detect a tumour of
 needing an invasive needle biopsy,       we are, fourth or fifth largest           any kind before it is symptomatic.
 we could use MRI scans and AI            economy in the world, and our            There will be much less fiddling
 software to assess their condition.      health service has faced being           about with needles and guesswork.

                            12
Rajarshi Banerjee
Rajarshi Banerjee
founded his medical
imaging technology
business Perspectum
Diagnostics in 2012. The
company’s first product,
LiverMultiScan, uses
innovative patented
technology to diagnose
liver disease via
non-invasive MRI scans.
Based in Oxford, it
employs around 180
people and in April last
year closed a $36m
funding round led by the
Blue Venture Fund and
HealthQuest Capital.
20
21
“Someday, and that day may never come, I will
                                                                        call upon you to do a service for me”
                                                                                                 Don Corleone
p14-15: Mondadori/Getty Images; p16-17: David Kittos/Getty Images

                                                                                                                    xxxxc

                                                                             22
Nigerian military leader Sani Abacha ruled
with an iron grip and presided over a regime
accused of gross human rights abuses.
During his presidency, from 1993 until his
death in 1998, Abacha is believed to have
stolen and laundered up to $5 billion. In Frank
Bayh and Steff Rosenberger-Ochs’s What If
The Were Unicorns series, the artists offer a
visual representation of the world’s tyrants as
crying innocents and question what might
have been.

                                                  •

                            23
The coronavirus pandemic has prompted many governments to rewrite the fiscal rules to
 support their beleaguered populations. But, as Andrew Saunders discovers, debt has been
 helping make the world go round for centuries – and a little bit can have a positive impact

H
             ow much debt is too much? This peren-        leads the pack at 266 per cent of GDP, followed by
             nial question has been pondered by           Greece at 205 per cent and Italy a few places behind at
             monarchs, ministers and monetarists          162 per cent. The genie is out of the bottle and, for now
             down the ages, and has been thrown once      at least, the last thing anyone is thinking about is how
again into razor-sharp relief in the last year by the     to get it back in.
extraordinary – and extraordinarily rapid – economic          “There is a magic money tree, whether you like it
response to coronavirus around the world.                 or not,” says Vicky Pryce, board member at economic
    Where once prudence, even a degree of austerity,      think tank the Centre for Economics and Business
were the watchwords of treasuries across the globe,       Research. “And for me the most fascinating thing is
since March last year (when the pandemic was              that it exists for as long as people continue to believe
declared) unprecedented largesse has suddenly             in it. The moment you start to think ‘we need to cut
become the order of the day. Restraint seems to have      back’ that mood can change very quickly.”
gone out of the window, replaced by the urgent                But how worried should we be – are those numbers
attempt if not to spend our way out of the crisis, then   really as scary as they seem? “The right way to frame
at least to use huge piles of cash to cushion the         that question is to ask ‘what’s the alternative?’ Where
associated social and economic blows.                     would we be if we had not borrowed?” says Erik
    In the UK this has turned politics upside down,       Britton, founder of Fathom Consulting and former
with a Conservative government borrowing sums             Bank of England macroeconomist. He believes
that even Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party would have         that without calling on that additional debt, things
trembled to imagine – around £1bn a day last              would have become very bad, very quickly. “What is
year, accruing a total deficit for 2020 of £355bn, or      already the biggest recession of all time would have
17 per cent of GDP, the highest since the end of          turned into the biggest depression of all time. UK
World War II.                                             unemployment would be at the seven or eight million
    Around the world there is a similar picture – debt    mark and rising, and GDP would be down by 20 per
has been the number one weapon of choice to meet          cent and falling. That cycle would continue until it
the crisis. According to the International Monetary       ended in revolution.
Fund (IMF), an astounding $12trn was added to the             “So what we’re really asking is, is it worth
global burden of public debt in the first nine months of   increasing the government debt ratio by say 30 per
the pandemic alone. That’s $12trn. Think about that       cent of GDP to avoid that situation? Absolutely it is – if
number for a moment. A 12 with 12 noughts after it.       the alternative is revolution or even world war, then
Equivalent to the entire GDP of all 19 Eurozone           everyone is better off as a result.”
countries, or 14.3 per cent of the economic output of         It’s all rather ironic – or, more optimistically,
the entire globe, if you prefer. Enough to buy Apple –    a measure of human progress – given that the national
the world’s most valuable company – six times over.       debt arose in the first place not to stave off the
Or every house in the UK, plus every business in the      possibility of war, but rather to pay for several that
FTSE 100, and still leave a couple of trillion in the     did happen. The idea dates back to the reign of
bank for emergencies.                                     William III, who offered the first ever formal sale
    It all amounts to a hasty and comprehensive           of sovereign (national) debt, borrowing about
rewrite of the economic ‘rules’ on debt. Twenty odd       £1m from a syndicate of city merchants to pay for
years ago, remember, then Labour chancellor Gordon        a new navy following defeat by the French in the
Brown set a 40 per cent ‘debt to GDP limit’ that was      Nine Years’ War. Monarchs had borrowed from
considered pretty racy by many. When the Eurozone         bankers and wealthy aristocrats before of course,
was established around the same time, one of the          but such arrangements could be tricky to negotiate
joining requirements was a debt to GDP ratio of no        and/or politically inconvenient. There was no need
more than 60 per cent.                                    for the king to worry about treading on the toes of
    But the latest ONS figures show the public sector’s    mere merchants and traders, or – God forbid –
net debt amounts to £2.1trn, equivalent to 100.8 per      bumping into any of them. The new idea turned out
cent of GDP – a level not seen since the early 1960s.     to be one of the great financial innovations of all
The international average ratio is about the same,        time, culminating in the foundation of the Bank
although the most indebted nations have much higher       of England in 1694, which helped finance the
figures. According to IMF projections for 2020, Japan      Napoleonic Wars.

                          18
debt

                                 Easy access to debt proved so fantastically                 Zilch, he says, makes its money from a per
                             convenient that other rulers quickly followed William’s     transaction fee to the retailer – there’s no interest
                             example. Four hundred years later we have the $100trn       charged to the customer and people use it because it
                             global bond market, trading everything from national        offers a better deal than a credit card. It’s the first UK
                             debt and corporate loans to credit card and mortgage        buy-now-pay-later provider to be fully regulated by
                             books. Central banks operating a vast programme of          the FCA, and closed a $30m series B funding round
                             quantitative easing (the introduction of new money          late last year. “Our model is completely the opposite
                             into the money supply) have also helped to keep interest    [of credit cards],” says Belamant. “We want you to
                             rates at record lows in recent years, making debt look      repay on time, every time. We never want to over lend.
                             even more attractive by keeping the repayments              Sixty-five per cent of our customers don’t have a credit
                             correspondingly affordable.                                 card, because they are tired of being ripped off.”
                                 “The curiosity is that we have record levels of             So for nation states and consumers alike, the
                             government borrowing in almost every economy but, at        prevailing consensus on debt seems to be that it’s
                             the same time, ridiculously low yields [interest            a vital lubricant that keeps the commercial machinery
                             rates] on government bonds,” says David                         moving and smooths the otherwise lumpy course
                             Smith, veteran economics editor of The Times.                      of progress. So long as you can afford the
                             “That’s a reflection of the fact that the markets                        payments, it’s all good. “An economy is
                             don’t expect short-term interest rates to go up                          movement and flow, it’s transactions,
                             any time soon. But the central banks have also                            things happening. What we worry about
                             been doing an enormous amount of                                           is keeping that flow going, because
                             quantitative easing. That’s a huge                                          anything that stops it kills the economy,”
                             market distortion and essentially free                                       says Britton.
                             money for the government.”                                                      But this simple transactional view
                                 It’s also instructive that for 100 years                                 papers over the deep-rooted anxiety
                             or so from the 1760s to the 1860s – a period                                 about debt that lurks beneath. For
                             that includes the economic explosion of                                      much of human history, a debt has
                             the industrial revolution – the UK’s                                         been an unwelcome or even dangerous
                             national debt remained well above the                                        obligation, with the potential to grant
                             100 per cent of GDP that is sparking so                                      creditors absolute power over those
                             much concern today, peaking at more                                         who owe them something. Failure to
                             than 235 per cent in the 1820s. In fact, there                            pay a debt in Sumer in 3,000BC, for
                             have only been two half-century periods                                 example, could result in a life of slavery not
                             where it has remained consistently below 100                           only for the debtor, but his family and
                             per cent of GDP: the years before World War I                        servants too. Unpaid debts could even be
                             and those from the early 1960s to the modern,                     inherited, condemning multiple generations to
                             pre-pandemic era.                                              the same fate.
                                 Where kings and princes first tread, commoners               The Romans went one better – meting out violent
                             eventually follow. Since the dawn of the credit card        and sometimes mortal punishments for unpaid debts.
                             (the US BankAmericard was first introduced in 1958,          Those who wished to avoid such a grisly end and did
                             followed in the UK by the Barclaycard in 1966 and           not have friends in high places could ‘volunteer’ for
                             Access in 1972) debt has become increasingly                debt bondage instead. This was just debt slavery by
                             democratised. Now in the smartphone era, with a             another name but, according to the bloodthirsty
                             plethora of apps offering multiple forms of credit with     mores of the times, was seen as a relatively progressive
                             just a few swipes, it’s easier than ever for the average    and lenient alternative.
                             person to get into debt.                                        Morality has also always been closely, if somewhat
                                 The fastest growing sector is currently ‘buy now        uneasily, linked to debt. Paying what one owes is
                             pay later’. Providers such as Klarna and Clearpay have      widely regarded as a benchmark of character and
                             drawn criticism from MPs and regulators alike for           trustworthiness, even if many of us struggle to live up
                             offering ‘lifestyle’ debt to the social media generation.   to it. Honouring debt is also baked into many of the
                             But, says Philip Belamant, founder and CEO of fast-         world’s major religions but, at the same time, those
Peter Dazeley/Getty Images

                             growing buy-now-pay-later start-up Zilch, just              who profit unduly from the debts of others have been
                             because the model is novel, doesn’t mean it’s all bad:      reviled. Just think of Jesus turning over the tables of
                             “The traditional credit card model is based on              the moneylenders, and the malevolent Shylock who
                             overlending – lending you money that you can’t afford       demands a pound of flesh as security on a loan in
                             to repay all at once, but that you can afford to repay      Shakespeare’s Merchant of Venice. Or the dim view
                             over a period of time. Because otherwise there is no        taken of usury – the charging of interest – still
                             interest or fees for the provider.”                         forbidden in Islamic law.                                  •

                                                                                                                    19
CREDIT WHERE IT’S DUE
                                                                                                                                               Government debt around the world has reached levels not seen since the last world war

                                                                                                                 150%                               HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF
                                                                                                                                      General government debt (% of GDP) 1901-2021                                                                                             $12.04trn
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      The national debt of Japan,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          the country with the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               1939-45                                highest pre-pandemic debt
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             World War II                                to GDP ratio at 234%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Source: SpendMeNot

                                                                                                                 120%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 1952
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            US tests first
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           hydrogen bomb
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          over the Marshall           1961
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Islands
                                                                                                                                                                                 1933                         1936                                               Berlin wall
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  goes up
                                                                                                                                                                         Hitler becomes                Anti-fascist Cable
                                                                                                                                                                          chancellor of                  Street riots in
                                                                                                                                                                            Germany                         London                                                                                  1973
                                                                                                                 90%                                                                                                                                      1957
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 OPEC
Keystone, Heinrich Hoffmann, ullstein bild, Fox Photos, Smith Collection-Gado, Photo12-Universal Images Group,

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Harold                                  embargo
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Macmillan                                 triggers
Forrest Anderson,,Sunset Boulevard-Corbis,Saul Loeb-AFP/Getty Images; Multicherry/Creative Commons

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      tells Brits:                              world oil
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    ‘You’ve never                                 crisis
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    had it so good’

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           1976
                                                                                                                 60%                          1914-18                                                                                                                                                  UK bailed
                                                                                                                                             World War I                                                                                                                                                out by
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        $3.9bn
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       IMF loan
                                                                                                                        ADVANCED ECONOMIES

                                                                                                                 30%
                                                                                                                          EMERGING ECONOMIES

                                                                                                                  0%
                                                                                                                               1904

                                                                                                                                                                                                                     1940

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              1964
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            1943

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   1946

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          1949
                                                                                                                                                                                                       1934

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               1958
                                                                                                                                                                                         1928

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        1955
                                                                                                                                                                                  1925

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 1952
                                                                                                                                      1907

                                                                                                                                                                          1922

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             1970
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      1967

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  1979
                                                                                                                                                                                                              1937

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    1973

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           1976
                                                                                                                        1901

                                                                                                                                             1910

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       1961
                                                                                                                                                    1913

                                                                                                                                                                  1919
                                                                                                                                                           1916

                                                                                                                                                                                                1931

                                                                                                                                                           20
debt

                                                                                                                                                                           THE INTERNATIONAL STORY
                                                                                                                                                                    Change in gross government debt (% of GDP)
                                                                                                                                                                                                        266.2%
                                                                                                                                                  KEY

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Source: IMF Fiscal Monitor, October 2020
                                                                                          2020-21                                                        2012                                         228.7%
                                                                                         Coronavirus                                                     2020
                                                                                          pandemic
                                                                                                                                                                                          161.8%

                                                                                                                                                 83.2%         131.2%                   126.5%
                                                                                                                                                   108% 103.3%
                                                                                                                                                                           81.1% 73.3%                                                    89.3%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           61.7%        67.7%
                                               2000                                                                                                                                                                    34.4%
                                        Nokia 3310 is
                                         the world’s

                                                                                                                                                 UK

                                                                                                                                                                  USA

                                                                                                                                                                              Germany

                                                                                                                                                                                            Italy

                                                                                                                                                                                                             Japan

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            China

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             India
                                         bestselling
                                        mobile phone
                                                                                  2017
     1982                                                                   Donald Trump
 E.T. released,                                                              becomes US
  the highest-                                                                president                                                                      THE 10 MOST INDEBTED EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
grossing film of           1992                                                                                                                                  National debt to GDP ratios (pre-pandemic figures)
    the 80s
                       World’s
                                                         2007-08                                                                                                        Debt: GDP ratio                                                        $
                        largest
                                                                                                                                                       1 Greece         182%                                                            231.2bn
                      McDonald’s                          Global
                                                                                                                                                       2 Italy          128%                                                              2.3trn
                       opens in                          financial
                                                                                                                                                       3 Portugal       118%                                                            293.3bn
                        Beijing                           crisis
                                                                                                                                                       4 Belgium        99%                                                              484bn
                                                                                                                                                       5 France         96%                                                               2.5trn

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Source: SpendMeNot
                                                                                                                                                       6 Spain          95%                                                               1.1trn
                                                                                                                                                       7 Cyprus         90%                                                              20.2bn
                                                                                                                                                       8 UK             86%                                                               2.9trn
                                                                                                                                                       9 Ukraine        77%                                                              73.8bn
                                                                                                                                                       10 Croatia       73%                                                              44.7bn
                   1989
              Berlin Wall
               comes                                                                                                                                                     COUNTING THE COST OF COVID
                down
                                                                                                                                                  Government debt accrued as a result of pandemic response packages
                                                                                                                                                                          (% of total GDP)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Source: IMF Fiscal Monitor, October 2020
                                                                                                                                                           UK                    USA                GERMANY                   ITALY
                                                                                                                                                          9.2%                 1 1.8%                8.35%                    4.9%
                                                                                                                                                         16.6%                  2.5%                 30.8%                    33%

                                                                                                                                                          jAPAN                CHINA                 INDIA
                                                                                                                                                         11.3%                  4.6%                 1.8%            KEY
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Outer circle Additional spending
                                                                                                                                                         23.7%                  1.3%                 5.2%            Inner circle Equities, loans
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     and guarantees
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database

                                                                                                                                                                        THE FALLING COST OF BORROWING
                                                                                                         Source: IMF; Madison Database Project

                                                                                                                                                            General government interest expenditure to GDP ratio
                                                                                                                                                                           (% of GDP) 2000-20
                                                                                                                                                 3.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     KEY
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Advanced economies
                                                                                                                                                 3.0                                                                       Emerging markets

                                                                                                                                                 2.5

                                                                                                                                                 2.0

                                                                                                                                                 1.5
                                               2000

                                                             2006

                                                                    2009
                                                      2003
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debt

Debt, undertaker Amerigo Bonasera discovers in The Godfather,
comes in all shapes and sizes. Pledging his loyalty to Vito, head of the
                                                                           CBS/Getty Images

Corleone family, in exchange for revenge for a violent assault on his
daughter, Bonsera has nightmares about what he will be asked to do
in return. When Corleone’s son Sonny is killed (pictured), Bonasera
learns the truth. Far from committing a heinous crime, his debt will be
fully repaid when he prepares the young man’s body for burial

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The overriding Christian principle when it comes
                              to debt, says Martin Palmer, a theologian and
                                                                                                        IN THE RED
                              sustainable investment adviser to faith groups, is that
                                                                                           Success is no guarantee against money
                              of reciprocal obligation. “The Lord’s Prayer comes
                                                                                             troubles – as these famous faces
                              with its own debt quota. You will only be forgiven for             discovered the hard way
                              the trespasses [sins, or debts] committed against you
                              if you have forgiven those who trespassed against                Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart
                              you. God is offering you a deal, but you have to clear       Throughout his life, Mozart produced
                                                                                           hundreds of enduring compositions,
                              your debt to God first.”                                      but his tastes for gambling, drinking
                                  But high-flown religious tenets, alas, are often not       and living well took their toll, and by
                              reflected down at ground level. English society in the        the time of his death, in 1791, he was
                              1800s was much more formally religious than today’s,                     heavily in debt.
                              but that didn’t stop the courts routinely chucking                     Thomas Jefferson
                              10,000 people a year into debtors’ prisons for not            The third US President died in 1826
                              paying what they owed. In theory, it was possible to           with debts of more than $100,000
                              cough up and leave without a stain on one’s character,         (roughly $2m today). He may have
                                                                                           been rich in terms of land – and slaves
                              but in practice the stigma was life long, as one John
                                                                                           – but his tobacco crops failed to meet
                              Dickens discovered when he was sent to Marshalsea                annual expenses and he had a
                              debtors’ prison in 1824 for a debt of £40. The trauma             penchant for the finer things.
                              never left him – or his 12-year-old son Charles, who
                              would later expose the injustice of his father’s harsh                      Joe Louis
                                                                                            Back in 1951, when his career in the
                              treatment in classic novels including David Copperfield        ring ended, Louis owed a whopping
                              and The Pickwick Papers. Only with the 1869 Debtors               $1.25m. He made millions as a
                              Act did individual bankruptcy become more                    heavyweight boxer but most of it went
                              commonplace, and the infamous debtors’ prisons                  to his handlers, as well as friends,
                                                                                             relatives and bad investments. The
                              gradually faded into the past.
                                                                                            debt remained when he died in 1981.
                                  Such stern moral judgements are thankfully
                              unfashionable these days, but people still make                          Judy Garland
                              a distinction between ‘good’ and ‘bad’ debt, which           Star of The Wizard of Oz and mother of
                                                                                           Liza Minnelli, Garland was plagued by
                              isn’t really borne out by the facts, says Britton. “What
                                                                                            financial difficulties throughout her
                              is the debt going to be used for? Will it be financing         career and racked up debts of $4m
                              consumption, which is ‘bad’, or financing investment,                   during her lifetime.
                              which is ‘good’? That doesn’t seem right to me – you
                              need some people to be borrowing for consumption,                        Marvin Gaye
                                                                                           Shot by his own father on April Fool’s
                              because if nobody is consuming then nobody is                 day 1984, the Heard it Through the
                              making any money.”                                           Grapevine soul legend was $9.2m in
                                  That’s not to say that there aren’t consequences of      debt when he died, thanks mainly to
                              excessive government borrowing, as John Kay,                  drug addiction and costly divorces.
                              former dean of Oxford’s Said Business School who                          Gary Coleman
                              has also held chairs at the LSE and LBS, points out.          Known for his role as a child actor in
                              “As long as people continue to believe in the                Diff’rent Strokes, Coleman could once
                              government’s credit, it could borrow much more than          claim to be the highest-paid TV actor,
                                                                                           but medical troubles and legal battles
                              it has at very low rates,” he says. “But it’s really about
                                                                                           with his adoptive parents left him with
                              intergenerational equality – young people’s pensions         debts of more than $70,000. He died
                              are being invested willy-nilly in these bonds, and that                  aged 42 in 2010.
                              means that in 50 years’ time their pensions will be
                              pretty terrible.”
                                  So where did the concept of debt come from in the
                              first place, and how did we get hooked on the habit?
                              This turns out to be a surprisingly controversial
KieselUndStein/Getty Images

                              subject. The conventional narrative starts with barter
                              as the earliest form of human economic development,
                              before proceeding to the invention of metal currency,
                              with debt following on as a somewhat louche and
                              sophisticated latecomer to the party. Loans, say the
                              ever-rational economists, were simply too difficult to
                              quantify without currency because of the equivalence

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