Wind Energy in NZ Presentation to The Energy Economics Summer School
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Wind Energy in NZ
Presentation to The Energy
Economics Summer School
Grenville Gaskell, NZ Wind Energy Association
February 2021
Contents
> About NZWEA
> A Historical Perspective
> Advantages of Wind Power
> National Trends
> Environmental Impacts
> An Operational View
> Climate Change Imperative
> Domestic and Commercial Wind
Turbines
> Summary
About NZWEA
▪ Established 1997
▪ An industry association
▪ Promotes the development of wind as a reliable,
sustainable, clean and commercially viable energy
source
▪ Policy & regulatory advocacy, public awareness and
industry development
▪ Represents around 50 companies:
▪ Generators and developers
▪ Turbine manufacturers, equipment suppliers, consultants
▪ Utility and community scale generation
Wind Energy in Perspective
▪ Internationally
▪ 500 to 900 A.D - used for pumping water
▪ 1890’s - pumping water and electricity
▪ 1980’s - first large scale wind farms
▪ 1991 - first off shore wind farm
▪ 2002 - first 3MW wind turbine
▪ 2020 - Offshore wind 12MW turbine
▪ New Zealand
▪ 1970’s - research commenced
▪ 1980’s - recognition of commercial opportunities
▪ 1990’s - first turbines and commercial deployment
▪ 2004 - first grid connected wind farm (Te Apiti)
▪ 2020 - first coastal wind farm (Waipipi)
Why Wind?
▪ Renewable - produces no greenhouse gases
Tonnes C02-e per GWh
Coal 1000
Gas 455
Geothermal 115
▪ Low investigation costs
▪ Cheapest form of new generation and scalable
▪ Consistent resource
▪ Short term variability but seasonally reliable
▪ Spatial diversity smooths output
▪ Synergies with hydro generation
▪ The renewable that best fits NZ’s demand profile
The declining cost of renewables Lazard LCOE version 12.0
14.04.2021
Improving performance
3.3 MW NEW
3.0 MW 3.45 MW 3.45/4.2 MW
in 2017
• New rotor: 150 m
• New segment: IEC T-class 4.2MW &
• Upgrade to 3.3 MW nominal • Upgrade to 3.45 MW • Up to 4.2 MW Power
Wind • First Vestas 3 MW WTG rating nominal rating Optimised Mode 150 Rotor
• New rotors: 105m, 117m, 126m • New rotor: 136 m • Platform naming: 4MW
• Up to 3.6 MW Power
Optimised Mode
Tropical/strong wind
Double digit
V117-4.2 MW™ AEP gains
across wind
High Wind V90-3.0 MW™ V105-3.3 MW™ V105-3.45 MW™ V105-3.45 MW™ classes
V112-3.45 MW™ V112-3.45 MW™
V112-3.3 MW™ V117-3.45 MW™
Medium Wind V112-3.0 MW™ V117-3.45 MW™
V126-3.45 MW™
V117-3.3 MW™
V126-3.45 MW™ V136-3.45 MW™ Up to
Low wind
V126-3.3 MW™ V136-3.45 MW™ V136-4.2 MW™ 56%
V150-4.2 MW™ AEP
increase
Year of Announcement 2010 2012/13 2015 2017 since 2010*
1
NZ Demand Context
▪ NZ demand profile is winter peaking
▪ All renewables positive but wind matches daily
and seasonal demand bests
▪ Spatial diversity key to
managing wind’s variability
▪ Significant hydro variability
▪ Transpower on wind ”a low cost source with
stronger alignment with winter peaks”
▪ On solar “ produces the least energy when NZ
needs it most such as during cold, dark winter
months”
9
Intermittency
New Zealand power system 2050
Mostly, We Like Wind but…
▪ 76% of support for wind
(EECA survey 2011)
▪ Increasing number of
community wind
initiatives
▪ Visual impacts and
noise the main issues
▪ Challenge is for
developers and
operators to be good
neighboursElectricity Generation in NZ
Generation stages:
▪ 1900 - 80’s hydro
▪ 1970’s - 2000’s thermal
▪ 1990’s - 2020 geothermal
▪ 2000’s - 2050 wind & solar
▪ Offshore wind?
Key challenges managing
variability and dry year risk
ICCC Accelerated Electrification Report (April 2019), – “modelling
suggests wind will be the dominant form of new renewable
generation out to 2035”Trends in NZ
• Historic generation trends now in decline
• Price of natural gas and carbon is accelerating the case
for the long-term substitution of baseload thermal plant
• New role firming wind & hydro as renewables increase
• Renewables are increasing
- Around 85% now
- Potentially 90%+ 2035
• Thermal plant closures in 2015
- Otahuhu 400MW
- Southdown 130MW
• Future of TCC and Huntly?
• Hydro moving more to support
other renewablesNZ - Wind Generation Today
▪ 19 wind farms, 2 under
construction
▪ 690 MW generating capacity
▪ Around 5% of NZ’s annual
generation
▪ 2000MW consented
▪ Consent challenges with
new technology
▪ Unlikely all will be builtVision: Wind Energy 20% by 2035
▪ 20% wind energy
▪ NZ has an exceptional resource
▪ Fits with the existing electricity system
▪ Will deliver economic benefits
▪ Wind can replace the majority of NZ’s gas – fired
baseload generation
▪ Lowest long run marginal cost
▪ Generation profile enhances actual revenue earned
▪ Target 690 MW to 3,100 MW by 2035
▪ Requires around 150MW / $300m investment p.a
▪ Transpower wind forecast – 2,900 MW
(2035), 6,500 MW (2050)2019 the restart of growth…
▪ Improved outlook with decarbonisation
▪ Electrification plus thermal displacement
▪ 355 MW committed in 2019
▪ Waipipi 133 MW / $276m
▪ Turitea 222 MW / $464m
▪ On average powers 182k homes, 580k EV’s
▪ Increase wind from 5% to 7.6% of total generation
▪ Potential
▪ Mt Cass 93 MW / $200m
▪ Harapaki (Hawkes Bay) 160 MW / $330m
▪ Kaimai 100 MW / Omamari 73 MW
▪ Repowering Tararua 72 MWEnvironmental Impacts
▪ RMA key to the sustainable management
natural and physical resources
▪ Construction Phase
▪ Earthworks
▪ Visual
▪ Noise
▪ Ecology
▪ Transportation / traffic effects
▪ Operation Maintenance Effects
▪ Visual and Landscape
▪ Noise
▪ Ecology
▪ Productive landRMA Challenges and
Opportunities
▪ Balancing perspectives
▪ Every site is different
▪ Stakeholder management
▪ Time and Cost
▪ Consistency of interpretation
▪ Amenity impacts - noise and visual
▪ National Policy Statement for Renewable Energy
Generation
▪ Key opportunities
▪ New resource management system being developed
▪ Need to recognise climate change imperative
▪ Consenting process which recognise scale and impactOperational Challenges
▪ Health and safety
▪ Wind speed
▪ Maintenance windows
▪ Market and rules
▪ Landowner and stakeholder management
▪ Ensuring compliance with consents
▪ Changing regulatory environment impacting
investment decisions
▪ Transmission / distribution pricingThe Climate Imperative
▪ NZ net emissions increased 57% since 1990
▪ Increase due to agriculture, transport and forest
harvesting
▪ Energy sector only 40% renewable
▪ Opportunity in transport and industrial processes
▪ Zero Carbon Act target net zero by 2050
▪ CCC advice - current Paris NDC target of 30% below
2005 by 2030 not compatible with global efforts
▪ On current projections NDC shortfall 100 Mt Co2-e
▪ Shortfall to 1.5 degrees another 100 Mt Co2-e
▪ Potential cost without savings at $50/t = $10B / $20B
▪ Domestic reduction focus but offshore mitigation
requiredHighlighting the Opportunity • Limited opportunity in the electricity sector • Accelerated electrification needs to be renewable
CCC Draft Report…
▪ Transformational change
required
▪ Proposed budgets are
achievable, affordable and
socially acceptable
▪ Accelerate EV’s
▪ Process heat conversions
▪ Phase out fossil fuel
baseload generation
▪ Increase renewable
generation
▪ Target 60% renewable energy by 2035 (40% today)Domestic Wind
▪ Several types
▪ horizontal – as per most windfarms
▪ Vertical
▪ Generally 5 kW or smaller
▪ Cost around $10k + per kW
▪ Difficult in urban areas
▪ Wind turbulent, weak and erratic
▪ Require speed of 4.5m/second
▪ Tower mounting improves performance
▪ Best for rural areas with consistent wind speed
▪ Community wind has possibilitiesDomestic Wind
▪ Several types
▪ horizontal – as per most windfarms
▪ Vertical
▪ Generally 5 kW or smaller
▪ Cost around $10k + per kW
▪ Difficult in urban areas
▪ Wind turbulent, weak and erratic
▪ Require speed of 4.5m/second
▪ Tower mounting improves performance
▪ Best for rural areas with consistent wind speed
▪ Community wind has possibilitiesA Way Forward
▪ Wind is a key technology to enable decarbonisation
▪ Big wind with spatial planning to improve variability
▪ Enable community and industrial solutions
▪ Integrated with other technologies – solar and batteries
▪ Promotes regional growth and support for wind
▪ Utilises NZ’s abundant resource
▪ Potential of using wind to create green hydrogen
▪ Requires a change to planning instruments
▪ Scale of growth needs to be recognised
▪ 0.6 GW to around 6.0 GW by 2050
▪ Site selection and consenting a priority
▪ Training resources to develop and operate new windfarmsWind is Now… From a science experiment 25 years ago wind offers an amazing opportunity
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