Wilton Junction Employment Projections & Land Need May 2014 - Amazon AWS
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Wilton Junction
Employment Projections & Land Need
May 2014
MacroPlan Dimasi MELBOURNE SYDNEY Level 4 Level 4 356 Collins Street 39 Martin Place Melbourne VIC 3000 Sydney NSW 2000 (03) 9600 0500 (02) 9221 5211 GOLD COAST PERTH Suite 5 Ground Floor 492 Christine Avenue 12 St Georges Terrace Robina QLD 4226 Perth WA 6000 (07) 5562 0767 (08) 9225 7200 Prepared for: Client Name Wilton Junction Landowners Group MacroPlan Dimasi staff responsible for this report: Wayne Gersbach NSW State Manager James Turnbull Senior Economist David Dragicevic Senior Economist Luke Crawford Analyst
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ..................................................................................6
Introduction ........................................................................................... 10
Project Background 10
Study Area 11
Land Ownership 14
Vision for Wilton Junction 16
Delivering the Vision and Project Description 16
Employment Projections and Land Need 17
SEPP Study Requirements 20
Section 1: Employment Forecasts ............................................................. 22
1.1 Wollondilly’s Population and Employment Base 22
1.2 Regional Employment Conditions 23
1.3 Employment Projections 30
1.4 Future Industry Composition 35
1.5 Employment Staging & Sequencing 43
1.6 Employment Outcomes 46
1.7 Employment Land Need 48
1.8 Testing our Employment Estimates 50
1.9 Infrastructure Considerations 51
Section 2: Retail Needs & Delivery Implications .......................................... 54
2.1 Trade Area Definition 54
2.2 Trade Area Population 59 2.3 Socio-demographic Profile 61 2.4 Retail Expenditure Capacity 64 2.5 Retail Floorspace Demand 69 2.6 Traditional Retail Competition 70 2.7 Bulky Goods Competition 74 2.8 Capture Rates 76 2.9 Supportable Floorspace 78 2.10 Retail Composition & Siting 80 2.11 Retail Land Requirements 83 2.12 Retail Distribution across Wilton Junction 84 2.13 Timing & Staging of Delivery 85 2.14 Potential Employment 88 2.15 Potential Impacts on Surrounding Centres 91
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5
Executive Summary
MacroPlan Dimasi has prepared this report to inform the SEPP-based rezoning of
Wilton Junction. Specifically our undertakings seek to project the magnitude,
timing and type of employment that is expected at the new township of Wilton
Junction. In doing so, the report specifically addresses the Director General’s
Requirements (DGRs) for the SEPP-based rezoning, as outlined by the
Department of Planning & Infrastructure (DPI).
The projected employment outcome for Wilton Junction (as at 2041) is
summarised as follows:
Population and Jobs In Wilton Junction (2041)
Count
Total Residents 34,955
Employed Residents 12,000-13,200
Jobs in Wilton Junction 10,440-11,770
Work from home & not fixed 1,560-1,770
Jobs in designated EL 8,880-10,000
We project that the majority of the expected employment will be in the form of
service-based industries that cater to the needs of Wilton Junction’s population
growth i.e. predominantly population driven (approximately 60%). While less in
absolute terms, other ‘external’ industries are also expected to locate at and
generate jobs in Wilton Junction.
We provide a detailed account of likely industries that may be attracted to Wilton
Junction and provide a staging sequence of industry growth and associated
employment. We also consider the employment consequences of major
infrastructure investment in the area (e.g. the Maldon-Dombarton rail extension
and the Brisbane-Melbourne fast train) but do not base our employment
projections on these projects.
Wilton Junction – Housing & Employment Needs
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WJLG
Our report provides a market-based estimation of the likely retail floorspace
needs associated with a new township of 34,955 people and considers the
delivery and employment implications of this provision.
We anticipate that Wilton Junction will accommodate approximately 70,000m2 of
retail floorspace, inclusive of bulky goods retailing and neighbourhood centres.
This floorspace is sufficient to underpin a vibrant town centre offering and other
neighbourhood or recreation based provisions.
Wilton Junction – Recommended Indicative Retail Composition
Wilton Junction - Indicative Com position
Land Area
Centre Role & Function Retail Size (GFA sqm ) Tim ing Land Uses
(Net) (ha)
Primary retail and commercial 2017 onw ards 1 x DDS, 2 x supermarkets, specilaty
Tow n Centre 25,000 sq.m 7.5-10 ha
centre. (various stages) retail and secondary retail
Local services and
Bulky goods and highw ay oriented
Bulky Goods employment as w ell as 30,000 sq.m 7.5-10 ha 2020 onw ards
retail
serving passing traffic
Supporting convenience retail 2017 onw ards Small supermarket/s plus retail and
Village Centre/s 10-12,000 sq.m 5 ha
and business services. (various stages) non-retail specialties
Small shop/s, Convenience shops, local services,
Local Shop/s & 2017 onw ards
cafes/restaurants and 4,000 sq.m 1-2 ha and small mixed use precinct near
Mixed Use (various stages)
offices lakeside
Total WiltonJunction Retail Floorspace 65,000-70,000 sq. m 20-25 ha
*Net o f lo cal ro ads and parks etc
NB : To wn centre FSR = 0.35; village centre FSR = 0.4; bulky = 0.4
GFA : Gro ss Flo o r A rea, o f lettable flo o rspace. Do es no t include co mmo n mall area, circulatio n etc.
So urce: M acro P lan Dimasi
Our employment delivery projections are provided below. These are based on our
calculated correlation between population growth and service-based employment
sectors and on our estimation of external industry attraction given the locational
attributes of Wilton Junction.
Our delivery projections are segregated by industry based on the distinction
between being population driven or that which is likely to be attracted to locate in
the area but which will predominantly trade to broader, external markets.
7
Persons Employed & Resident Population, Wilton Junction (2016-41)
2021 2026 2031 2036 2041+
Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper
Employment 1,805 2,060 4,065 4,601 6,304 7,131 8,577 9,690 10,440 11,770
Non-WJ residents working in WJ 353 443 794 989 1,232 1,533 1,676 2,083 2,040 2,530
Self contained jobs 1,452 1,617 3,270 3,612 5,072 5,598 6,901 7,607 8,400 9,240
Work from home & not fixed location 271 309 610 690 946 1,070 1,286 1,453 1,566 1,766
Employed residents in WJ employment lands 1,181 1,308 2,661 2,922 4,126 4,529 5,614 6,153 6,834 7,475
Predominantly Population Driven
Retail Trade 345 360 920 960 1,380 1,440 1,840 1,920 2,300 2,400
Education and Training 113 120 375 400 525 560 675 720 750 800
Health Care and Social Assistance 240 280 480 560 720 840 960 1,120 1,200 1,400
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services 25 50 50 100 75 150 100 200 100 200
Public Administration and Safety 180 204 360 408 480 544 600 680 600 680
Arts and Recreation Services 42 60 84 120 112 160 126 180 140 200
Other Services 120 156 240 312 360 468 480 624 600 780
Financial and Insurance Services 24 30 48 60 96 120 128 160 160 200
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services 13 20 23 36 33 52 43 68 50 80
External & Other
Manufacturing 70 79 140 158 315 356 525 593 700 790
Construction 64 68 160 170 288 306 480 510 640 680
Wholesale Trade 150 158 300 316 450 474 600 632 750 790
Accommodation and Food Services 75 84 150 168 275 308 400 448 500 560
Transport, Postal and Warehousing 105 119 245 277 420 474 595 672 700 790
Information Media and Telecommunications 10 18 20 36 30 54 40 72 50 90
Administrative and Support Services 125 138 225 248 325 358 425 468 500 550
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 105 117 245 273 420 468 560 624 700 780
Total 1,805 2,060 4,065 4,601 6,304 7,131 8,577 9,690 10,440 11,770
Wilton Junction – Housing & Employment Needs
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WJLG
Finally, we estimate the amount of land that the employment sectors are likely to
require across the Wilton Junction master-planned area. We anticipate that a
provision of between 140 and 163 hectares is required for employment land
purposes. This estimate is a gross figure and includes open space, building
setbacks, parking and interior and external roadways. It does not include the land
area required for schools/education purposes or other community facilities and
assets.
Employment Land Need, Wilton Junction
GFA FSR
Land Owner Land (hectares)
Lower Upper Lower Upper
Retail 65,000 75,000 0.3 0.3 20.0 25.0
Commercial* 86,343 101,592 1.0 1.0 8.6 10.2
Industrial 334,305 384,285 0.3 0.3 111.4 128.1
Total 485,648 560,877 1.6 1.6 140.1 163.3
** Other includes existing Township
*Excludes schools/education and community Source: MacroPlan Dimasi
**FSR applied to GFA to derive total land allocation
A separate strategy for driving employment outcomes at Wilton Junction is
provided under separate cover.
Wilton Junction – Housing & Employment Needs
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WJLG
Introduction
Project Background
In November 2011, the State Government invited landowners with large
properties in suitable locations to nominate sites which might be able to deliver
additional housing to address Sydney’s housing supply shortfall. Walker
Corporation, Governors Hill, Bradcorp and Lend Lease responded to the Program
and nominated landholdings of more than 100ha in Wollondilly Shire, surrounding
the Hume Highway-Picton Road intersection for consideration. This area has
subsequently become known as Wilton Junction, and is the subject of this
application.
Following a Wollondilly Shire Council resolution in May 2012, four major
landowners (collectively known as the Wilton Junction Landowners’ Group) signed
an agreement to work cooperatively with Council in the preparation of a high level
master plan for Wilton Junction. The master plan aims to deliver high quality new
housing, jobs close to home, supporting social and utilities infrastructure and
services, and a range of complementary land uses.
A high level Master Plan and a Preliminary Infrastructure Requirements Report
were considered by Wollondilly Shire Council on 17 th December 2012, with Council
resolving to give in-principle support to the proposal. Council also resolved to
request that the rezoning be a state driven process.
Subsequently, the NSW Government decided to coordinate the statutory planning
process, led by the Department of Planning and Infrastructure (now the
Department of Planning and Environment, DP&E). The Minister for Planning and
Infrastructure (now the Minister for Planning and Environment) proposed to
prepare a State Environmental Planning Policy (SEPP), as per Section 24 of the
Environmental Planning and Assessment Act 1979 (EP&A Act), which identifies
that a SEPP is an Environmental Planning Instrument, and Section 37 of the EP&A
Act, which relates to the making of a SEPP for State or regional significant
development. This was done with a view to rezone the land through an
Wilton Junction – Housing & Employment Needs
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WJLGamendment to the Wollondilly Local Environmental Plan 2011 (LEP) to facilitate
the early delivery of housing and infrastructure, linked to an agreed
Infrastructure, Servicing and Staging Plan.
The Department of Planning and Infrastructure issued Key Study Requirements
(KSRs) to the Proponents (Walker Corporation, Bradcorp and Governors Hill) to
guide the planning investigations for a new town at Wilton Junction. The KSRs set
the criteria for carrying out environmental investigations across the Study Area
(excluding both Bingara Gorge and the existing Wilton village which will not be
affected by any proposed amendments to their current zoning and planning
provisions). The investigations examine the potential for the Wilton Junction
Study Area to be rezoned under a SEPP.
The Department of Planning and Infrastructure has issued specific Director-
General’s Requirements (DGRs) to guide planning investigations for a new town at
Wilton Junction. The DGRs set the criteria for carrying out environmental
investigations across the site.
MacroPlan Dimasi has prepared this report to inform the SEPP-based rezoning of
Wilton Junction. Specifically our report seeks to establish the likely demographic
characteristics and housing needs of the new township of Wilton Junction. In
doing so, the report specifically seeks to address the DGRs that have been issued
to guide the necessary planning investigations.
Study Area
Wilton Junction is located within Wollondilly Shire Council and is approximately
80km from Sydney Central Business District, and 30km west of Wollongong. The
study area includes the existing village of Wilton and the adjacent Bingara Gorge
estate.
The area is strategically located around the Hume Highway/Picton Road
interchange and represents the next potential major town along this transport
corridor south of Campbelltown – Macarthur.
11Wilton Junction has the distinct advantage of a consolidated land ownership of
nearly 2,700ha in the control of recognised developers, with the resources and
capability to expedite housing delivery, roll out enabling infrastructure, deliver
social services and provide local employment.
Wilton Junction presents a good opportunity to address significant housing supply
shortages and affordability pressures in Sydney. The new town will provide
housing choice through a variety of dwelling sizes and locations. It will also
provide a new ‘district’ level retail and commercial focus for the people of
Wollondilly, deliver social infrastructure and provide jobs and services for the local
population.
Wilton Junction – Housing & Employment Needs
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WJLGFigure 1. Study Area
Source: Connor Holmes (2014)
13Land Ownership
There are four major landowners within the Investigation Study Area:
Bradcorp Pty Ltd (land at Wilton West)
Walker Corporation (land south of Picton Road and east of the Hume
Highway)
Governors Hill (land including the Wilton Aerodrome and land on both
sides of Picton Road west of the Hume Highway)
Lend Lease (land to the north-west of the Hume Highway-Picton Road
intersection; but is excluded from the study requirements)
The Investigation Study Area includes the proponents’ land and other land held by
individual private owners, as outlined in the table below. A plan of the extent of
ownership is provided below.
Net Developable
Land Owner Gross area (ha)
Area (ha)
Lend Lease 455.0 240.0
Bradcorp 872.4 458.7
Governors Hill 175.3 123.5
Walker Corporation 405.2 230.3
Other land owners** 572.3 489.2
Total 2,480.2 1,541.7
** This comprises 113 other private landowners, excluding the new Bingara Gorge estate and the
existing Wilton village which will not be affected by any proposed amendments to the existing
Wollondilly Shire Council planning provisions.
For the purpose of this rezoning application, the Proponents include Walker
Corporation, Governors Hill and Bradcorp. Lend Lease will continue with the
planning and delivery of its Bingara Gorge community at Wilton, which is already
zoned for residential development. Lend Lease is working with the proponents to
plan and deliver the new town at Wilton Junction and its associated infrastructure.
Wilton Junction – Housing & Employment Needs
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WJLGFigure 2. Land Ownership
Source: Connor Holmes (2014)
15Vision for Wilton Junction
The Proponents have a vision for the proposed rezoning of land at Wilton
Junction, which is:
Wilton Junction is a new community cradled in a unique landscape characterised
by bushland, rivers, creeks, lakes and ridges set against the backdrop of the
Razorback Range. By design, the place and the lives of its people are intertwined
with the bush.
The community respects the location’s rich bushland setting, engages with
surrounding water features and embraces sustainability.
Inclusive and welcoming of diversity, it’s a place to nurture relationships, grow a
family - to put down roots.
Founded on a 21st century interpretation of timeless "Garden City" principles,
Wilton Junction combines the best features of our most loved country towns with
the facilities, services and technologies found in Australia's most successful, edgy,
and vibrant town centres.
A safe place to visit – a healthy place to live – a great place to learn - a rewarding
place to work – the local community takes pride in the strength of its cultural and
civic life and the role of their town in Wollondilly Shire and the region.
Delivering the Vision and Project Description
The vision will be delivered through the creation of a new town with between
11,000 and 13,000 new homes and 11,000 jobs. Residential neighbourhoods will
be created around green spaces to provide a range of housing choice and to
facilitate healthy lifestyles options for residents.
A new town, comprising of approximately 17ha, will be established within the
north-west quadrant of the study area and will be surrounded by employment
generating uses for business, bulky goods and light industry. It will comprise of
approximately 120-130ha of land.
Smaller neighbourhood centres will be created within the residential
neighbourhoods to cater for convenient daily shopping choices. Social and
physical infrastructure will also be provided facilitating the creation of a new
community. Existing significant environmental features and heritage items will be
preserved commemorating the natural and historical setting of the study area.
Wilton Junction – Housing & Employment Needs
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WJLGThe proposed Master Plan will be informed by the following key principles:
Employment and commercial drivers. The delivery of approximately
11,000 jobs focused around a new town centre and in close proximity to the
Hume Highway & Picton Road.
Housing. Providing between 11,000 and 13,000 new dwellings across the
precinct, inclusive of the 1,165 already approved at Bingara Gorge.
Community facilities. Providing a diverse range of high quality community
facilities including a range of schools, a library, a community centre and
three neighbourhood centres.
Environment. Conserving ecological features and biodiversity and
establishing a Trust to rehabilitate and manage approximately 630 ha of
bushland.
Place making. Delivering a high quality and connected network of streets,
spaces and squares throughout the development.
Activity centres. Focusing on the delivery of a new town centre and three
smaller neighbourhood centres with a diverse mix of retail, commerce,
business & light industry.
Traffic and transport. Providing strategic motorway and bus access to
surrounding areas and legible movement throughout the development.
Infrastructure. Integrating water, waste water and stormwater
management systems and access to all other utilities including gas and NBN.
Employment Projections and Land Need
This report forms part of a series of studies required to be undertaken to meet the
Director Generals’ Study Requirements outlined by the NSW DPI (now the DP&E)
to inform SEPP-based rezoning process.
Our report focuses on the potential employment outcome for Wilton Junction and
the resultant land take required to accommodate employment land uses. Our
report considers the characteristics and forces that will drive the likely
employment outcomes for the township.
17We assess need through our analysis of recent ABS Census 2011 data and by
examining prevailing local and regional market forces as well as, where
appropriate, the experiences of other ‘like’ locations.
Our employment forecasts are derived in a manner that considers the likely level
of employment generated by industries that are predominantly population driven
or service-based and others that are underpinned by external markets. In doing
so we reference the employment influence of south-west Sydney but also have
regard for the unique locational attributes of Wilton Junction as a stand-alone
township and as the major centre/hub for the broader Wollondilly LGA, i.e. we
consider Wilton Junction as a distinct and primary township within the LGA, able
to support its own employment and service needs and to trade beyond its local
borders.
The report’s outcomes and findings have informed the development and
preparation of a Master Plan for Wilton Junction.
The derived Master Plan is presented below.
Wilton Junction – Housing & Employment Needs
18
WJLGFigure 3. Wilton Junction Master Plan
19SEPP Study Requirements
In preparing our report, MacroPlan Dimasi has considered the specific Director-
General’s Requirements (DGRs) pertaining to the investigation of ‘Economic
Development and Employment Need’.
The schedule below provides a concise response to each specific DGR item
addressed in the report.
DGR Item Response
Prepare an assessment of the retail, MacroPlan Dimasi has undertaken an assessment of
commercial, industrial and other employment outcomes and employment land need based on
employment needs for the projected demand from the future resident population, and the
population of the Precinct and wider comparative advantages (i.e. location and accessibility)
LGA to support the preparation of a presented at Wilton Junction.
local economic development Our findings support the development of a local employment
strategy, including impacts on strategy, provided under separate cover to this report.
existing towns within the LGA Our examination of employment need has considered the
likely level of employment generated by industries that are
predominantly population driven or service-based and others
that are underpinned by external markets. Our report
references the employment influence of south-west Sydney
but also has regard for the unique locational attributes of
Wilton Junction as a stand-alone township and as the major
centre/hub for the broader Wollondilly LGA.
Consider future industry dynamics Our assessment of employment need has considered both
for key sectors both currently in the historical data relevant to the Wollondilly LGA as well as trend
area and those which could benefit data from south-west Sydney. We have tested our
from locating in the area. This assumptions of employment drivers and characteristics using
requires strategic analysis and a number of exemplar regions.
should not be limited to existing On the basis of existing and projected differences between
forecasts based on historical data. Wollondilly and the south-west Sydney region, we have
estimated the employment potential of Wilton Junction as a
stand-alone township.
Identify factors that may drive Primarily, there are three factor or attributes that are
certain types of commercial, expected to support industry and employment generation at
industrial or retail development Wilton Junction, including:
investment and activity, particularly A 35,000-strong resident population will support the creation
in relation to the site’s connections of industries that are predominantly population-driven e.g.
between the Southern Highlands and retail, service provision, education, etc. Wilton Junction will
South-West Sydney and placement become the major centre/hub for the Wollondilly LGA.
Wilton Junction – Housing & Employment Needs
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WJLGin the Sydney-Canberra-Melbourne Wilton Junction is at a strategic junction of two significant
corridor. roads (Hume Highway and Picton Road). Its locational
attributes will drive interest from externally trading
industries.
Finally, Wilton Junction’s separation from Sydney’s south
west and positioning on the Sydney-Canberra-Melbourne
trade corridor is expected to facilitate a healthy
representation of industries that predominantly operate in
external markets.
Develop an employment strategy to Our employment strategy is provided in the Economic
support a high level of employment Development and Employment Strategy report (EDES).
self-containment in the Precinct. This It provides a strategy that supports the achieving regional job
strategy should assess how jobs targets, the capturing of service-driven employment and
generated within the Precinct will proposes a series of development initiatives and promotional
contribute to jobs targets for the measures to attract external industries to facilitate local
sub-region. employment opportunities for future residents.
Through the use of case studies, a series of sector-specific
strategies are presented in detail. The EDES also comprises
of Government grants, incentives, partnership opportunities,
initiatives and business developing services available to
businesses.
21Section 1: Employment Forecasts
Our working resident and employment projections for Wilton Junction are based
on a consideration of:
Outer South West & Wollondilly LGA employment and business conditions;
Anticipated participation rates amongst working aged residents;
Employment trends in the nearby Southern Highlands;
The locational attributes of Wilton Junction and its place as the primary
centre within the Wollondilly LGA;
The likely delivery of retail and other service-based (population driven)
employment; and
The types of other industries likely to be attracted to Wilton Junction.
Notably, since our initial projections were undertaken as part of the early stage
reporting to Wollondilly Council, we also re-examine the township’s potential to
retain employment and its work-from-home potential.
1.1 Wollondilly’s Population and Employment Base
The Estimated Resident Population (ERP) of Wollondilly (2011) is:
Wollondilly – 44,403 (41,221 at 2006)
By comparison, Wingecarribee, the LGA immediately south of Wollondilly, has a
similar ERP of 44,396 persons (2011).
As at Census 2011 Wollondilly LGA had 21,300 working residents.
No individual town within the Wollondilly LGA holds a population greater than
5,000 people. The largest towns as at Census 2011 are:
Picton - 4,595
Tahmoor - 4,505
Bargo - 4,130
Wilton Junction – Housing & Employment Needs
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WJLG Wilton – 1,890
Picton has the largest share of employment offerings within the LGA. Wollondilly
Council’s chambers are situated in Picton.
Wilton Junction is expected to accommodate around 35,000 residents upon full
development. This population will gradually build up, in sync with land and
housing development, until 2041.
1.2 Regional Employment Conditions
In order to ascertain employment trends that may impact on future industry and
employment structures at Wilton Junction we firstly consider employment and
business growth tendencies in the Outer South West Sydney SA4 region
(comprising of Camden, Wollondilly and Campbelltown SA3 regions) and across
the Wollondilly LGA in which Wilton Junction is located. We later make some
relevant comparisons with the neighbouring Southern Highlands region
(Wingecarribee Shire LGA).
Outer South West Sydney - Employment by Industry
The table below presents the number and proportion of employed persons by
industry in the Outer South West Sydney Region (OSWSR). As at February 2012,
there were approximately 203,500 employed persons in the OSWSR.
Table 1. Outer South West Sydney Statistical Region – Top 7 Employing Industries
Employed
Industry Proportion (%)
persons ('000s)
Manufacturing 17.1 13.5%
Construction 12.5 9.9%
Retail Trade 12.0 9.5%
Health Care and Social Assistance 11.9 9.4%
Transport, Postal and Warehousing 9.1 7.2%
Public Administration and Safety 9.0 7.1%
Wholesale Trade 8.3 6.6%
Source: Census 2011, MacroPlan Dimasi
23Manufacturing is the largest employing industry in the region, accounting for
around 14% of the workforce (17,100 jobs). The next largest employing industry
is Construction (9.9%), followed closely by Retail Trade (9.5%) and Health Care &
Social Assistance (9.4%).
Figure 4. Change in Employment (‘000s), February 2008 – February 2012
Source: Census 2011, MacroPlan Dimasi
Over the four years to February 2012, seven industries recorded positive
employment growth. Of all industries, Financial & Insurance Services and Other
Services incurred the greatest increase – an increase of 3,800 and 3,200 jobs
respectively.
The number of employed persons decreased in eleven industries over this period.
The five largest reductions were recorded in the Transport, Postal & Warehousing
(-3,100 jobs), Construction (-2,500 jobs), Administrative & Support Services (-
2,300 jobs), Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing (-1,300 jobs) and Mining (-1,300
jobs) industries.
With the exception of manufacturing, four of the top five growth industries are
service denominated. This emulates the transition apparent throughout Australia’s
broader economy, which has seen service or ‘experience’ based employment
increase at the expense of traditional industries (such as manufacturing and
construction).
Wilton Junction – Housing & Employment Needs
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WJLGOuter South West Sydney - Business Growth
Over the two years to June 2011, an additional 620 employing businesses were
formed within OSWSR.
Figure 5. Change in Employing Businesses, June 2009 – June 2011
Source: 8165.0 Counts of Australian Businesses (2012), MacroPlan Dimasi
Of all sectors, business growth had been most pronounced in the manufacturing
(+328 businesses), wholesale trade (+179 businesses) and the construction
(+166 businesses) industries. In contrast, accommodation & food services (-58
businesses), retail trade (-33 businesses) and financial & insurance services (-25
businesses) incurred the largest reduction in business numbers.
Some business growth observations are clearly contrary to the broader OSWSR
employment trends and highlight the peculiarities of employment tendencies and
location distinctions.
The rise in manufacturing, wholesale trade and construction denominated
business registrations parallels a broader trend of industry movement from inner
and middle ring Sydney to western Sydney, generated by a combination of
cheaper rents, the availability of newer custom-built premises and improved
access to Sydney’s orbital road system.
25Although less in absolute magnitude, there has also been a universal rise in
service-based businesses – administrative & support services, other services and
education & training.
Wollondilly LGA - Employment by Industry
The highest employing industries in Wollondilly LGA are ‘Mining’ and
‘Manufacturing’, each accounting for around 14% of jobs in the LGA.
The next four largest employing industries are ‘Construction’ (11%), ‘Education &
Training’ (8%), ‘Retail Trade’ (8%) and ‘Health Care & Social Assistance’ (6%).
The high share of workers engaged in the manufacturing and construction
industries is consistent with our observations for OSWSR. A high representation of
mining workers is influenced by the nearby operations of Illawarra Coal.
Table 2. Employment by Industry, Wollondilly LGA (place of work)
Industry %
Mining 14%
Manufacturing 14%
Construction 11%
Education and Training 8%
Retail Trade 8%
Health Care and Social Assistance 6%
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 5%
Accommodation and Food Services 5%
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 5%
Transport, Postal and Warehousing 4%
Public Administration and Safety 4%
Other Services 4%
Wholesale Trade 3%
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services 2%
Administrative and Support Services 2%
Arts and Recreation Services 2%
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services 1%
Financial and Insurance Services 1%
Inadequately described 1%
Information Media and Telecommunications 0%
Total 100%
Source: Census 2011, MacroPlan Dimasi
Wilton Junction – Housing & Employment Needs
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WJLGCensus data suggests that the majority of jobs in Wollondilly LGA are of a
technician or trade capacity (20%). The next largest occupation types in
Wollondilly LGA are clerical & administrative (15%) and professional (14%).
In compositional terms, compared to OSWSR, the Wollondilly LGA has less Sales
Workers (-5%), Professionals (-4%) and Community & Personal Service Workers
(-3%). However, there is a larger share of Technicians & Trade Workers (+6%),
Machinery Operators & Drivers (+4%), Labourers (+2%) and Managers (+2%).
Figure 6. Occupation, Wollondilly LGA (place of work)
Technicians and Trades Workers
7%
7% 20% Machinery Operators and Drivers
Professionals
12% Managers
15% Labourers
12% Clerical and Administrative Workers
Community and Personal Service Workers
13% 13%
Sales Workers
Source: Census 2006, MacroPlan Dimasi
Wollondilly LGA - Business Growth
Over the two year period to June 2011, an additional 44 (employing)
‘Construction’ businesses were formed in Wollondilly LGA. This represented the
fastest growing business sector, with the closest other sector (‘Administrative &
Support Services’) increasing by just 20 businesses.
Other expanding industries include ‘Health Care & Social Assistance’ (+18
businesses), ‘Education & Training’ (+14 businesses) and ‘Professional, Scientific
& Technical Services’ (+11 businesses).
‘Transport, Postal & Warehousing’ registered the largest decline (-18 businesses),
followed closely by ‘Accommodation & Food Services’ (-17 businesses).
27Figure 7. Change in business count, Wollondilly LGA (June 2009 - June 2011)
Source: Census 2011, MacroPlan Dimasi
Not including construction, business growth in the Wollondilly LGA has been
dominated by service and professional related industries e.g. Health Care & Social
Assistance, Education & Training and Retail Trade.
This contrasts with trends observed in the OSWSR, where business growth has
been concentrated amongst traditional industrial business types, a function of the
exodus of industrial/manufacturing activity from inner and middle ring locations.
The difference suggests that the likely mix of businesses operating at Wilton
Junction will differ from that observed in the OSWSR.
Wollondilly’s Labour Surplus
According to Census 2011 data, approximately 72% of Wollondilly’s employed
residents work outside the LGA. Journey to work data indicates that there is a
movement of local workers to established employment locations such as
Campbelltown and Liverpool LGAs. The major work destination places for
Wollondilly’s working residents are presented below.
Wilton Junction – Housing & Employment Needs
28
WJLGAn ‘export’ of Wollondilly’s labour resources is partly a natural consequence of
scale economies for most businesses. Larger populations will tend to be favoured
by businesses, rather than small populations. Over time, the gradual growth in
the Wollondilly population will make more and more businesses viable within the
local area. At this point, the employment structure is a ‘work in progress’ relative
to other established regions.
Table 3. Work Destination for Employed Residents, Wollondilly LGA (2011)
Work Destination LGA Number Proportion
Wollondilly (A) 5,657 28%
Campbelltown (C) 2,518 12%
Camden (A) 2,515 12%
Liverpool (C) 1,131 6%
POW No Fixed Address (NSW) 1,081 5%
POW State/Territory undefined (NSW) 901 4%
Wingecarribee (A) 868 4%
Penrith (C) 787 4%
Sydney (C) 626 3%
Blacktown (C) 540 3%
POW Capital city undefined (Greater Sydney) 491 2%
Fairfield (C) 450 2%
Wollongong (C) 413 2%
Bankstown (C) 360 2%
Parramatta (C) 322 2%
Holroyd (C) 203 1%
Auburn (C) 170 1%
Sutherland Shire (A) 148 1%
Botany Bay (C) 146 1%
The Hills Shire (A) 116 1%
Source: Census 2011
By industry, the largest areas of labour ‘export’ (i.e. leaving the area to work
elsewhere) relate to the ‘Financial & Insurance Services’ sector (85%), ‘Public
Administration & Safety’ (85%) and ‘Information, Media & Telecommunications’
(83%). Consistent with industry composition, the ‘export’ of white collar labour is
greater than for that for blue collar occupations.
Overall, Wollondilly LGA’s job-containment rate is at 28% (i.e. the proportion of
local jobs held by local workers to the total number of local working residents).
29Table 4. Major Labour ‘Exporting’ Employing Industries – from Wollondilly LGA to other locations (2011)
Proportion
Employing Industry
Financial and Insurance Services 85%
Public Administration and Safety 85%
Information Media and Telecommunications 83%
Health Care and Social Assistance 83%
Wholesale Trade 80%
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services 76%
Transport, Postal and Warehousing 76%
Education and Training 75%
Occupation
White Collar Industries 74%
Blue Collar Industries 70%
Source: Census 2011
Notwithstanding other factors (e.g. income disparity, travel time, job loyalty etc),
the lack of labour demand in Wollondilly LGA is most likely due to its limited
number of medium-large sized businesses. According to the ABS1, approximately
74% of employing businesses operating in Wollondilly LGA engage less than four
workers. While this may currently be deemed a shortfall or weakness of the
Wollondilly LGA, an available labour supply presents as an attractive proposition
for new businesses and industries seeking to enter the area.
We note also that with the advent of a 35,000 township at Wilton Junction,
representing almost a doubling of the LGA’s population, the employment
characteristics of the LGA will be significantly altered.
1.3 Employment Projections
We have estimated the generation of between 10,400 and 11,770 jobs arising
from the development of Wilton Junction, based on expected employment
outcomes for industries that are population driven (i.e. retail and other service-
based sectors) and those which operate to service broader external markets.
1
8165.0 Count of Australian Businesses, including Entries and Exits (2012)
Wilton Junction – Housing & Employment Needs
30
WJLGOf the 12,000-13,200 working residents that a township of 35,000 people will
generate (i.e. excluding retirees and younger age cohorts and applying typical
participation rates), approximately 70% are anticipated to be employed in Wilton
Junction – including 1,566-1,766 ‘home-based’ jobs or jobs not undertaken at a
fixed location.
Table 5. Population and Jobs In Wilton Junction (2041)
Count
Total Residents 34,955
Employed Residents 12,000-13,200
Jobs in Wilton Junction 10,440-11,770
Employed residents working in WJ 8,400-9,240
- Work from home & not fixed 1,566-1,766
- Work in designated EL 6,834-7,474
Source: MacroPlan Dimasi
Job Containment Analysis
Job containment refers to the proportion of working residents who are employed
within their LGA to the total number of local working residents. Wollondilly’s job-
containment rate is 28% (i.e. almost 6,000 of the 21,300 working residents in
Wollondilly work within the LGA). This is a similar rate to that experienced in the
outer-Sydney metropolitan LGAs of Blacktown (27%), Liverpool (28%),
Campbelltown (33%) and Camden (28%).
Employment self-sufficiency, on the other hand, refers to the proportion of
working residents who are employed within their LGA to the total number of local
jobs. Wollondilly has an employment self-sufficiency rate of 61% (i.e. of the
almost 10,000 local jobs, approximately 6,000 of them are filled by local
residents).
In employment self-sufficiency terms, Wollondilly is different to and outperforms
the outer-Sydney metropolitan LGAs of Blacktown (44%), Liverpool (38%),
Campbelltown (52%) and Camden (48%), reflecting the distinct ‘stand-alone’
character of the LGA. In this sense we do not envisage future Wollondilly, with the
advent of a 35,000-strong town at Wilton Junction, as contiguous to the Sydney
south-west metropolitan area. Instead, we consider Wilton Junction as a distinct
31and primary township within the LGA, able to support its own employment and
service needs and to trade beyond its local borders.
To test our applied job containment rate we have considered job containment
achievements at other like locations including the Southern Highlands (NSW),
Beaudesert (QLD) and Murray Bridge (SA). We have chosen these exemplar
regions given similarities in their township character, major highway location and
positioning relative to major centres.
2011 Census data shows that, of total employed residents across the Southern
Highlands region, approximately 8,470 were employed locally. The Southern
Highlands therefore achieves an employment self-containment level of 69% (i.e.
the proportion of working residents who are employed within the Wingecarribee
LGA to the total number of local working residents).
Table 6. Southern Highlands - Job Containment, 2011
Local Jobs Held by Employed
Employed Residents
Bowral 3,848 4,888
Mittagong 2,158 3,441
Moss Vale-Berrima 2,465 3,952
Southern Highlands 8,471 12,281
Job Containment for Southern Highlands 69%
Source: Census 2011
Achieved containment rates for Beaudesert and Murray Bridge are listed below.
Table 7. Exemplar Regions - Job Containment, 2011
Local Jobs Held by
Employed Job-
Employed
Residents containment
Residents
Beaudesert 3,063 5,156 59%
Murray Bridge 5,677 8,190 69%
Source: Census 2011
Wilton Junction – Housing & Employment Needs
32
WJLGThe job containment rates in the like locations that we have examined are not
materially different to the rate that we have applied for our Wilton Junction
employment projections (i.e. 70%).
Again we note the high level of employment self-sufficiency achieved already at
Wollondilly and are confident that as more jobs are created in the LGA (i.e. in
tandem with the development of Wilton Junction) a good proportion of these will
be filled by local residents.
What has held back Wollondilly’s job containment achievement thus far is simply
a lack of jobs which is not assisted by the predominance of small towns of less
than 5,000 persons throughout the LGA. The advent of a 35,000-strong town at
Wilton Junction will change the employment dynamics of the LGA, boosting
service-based employment significantly and providing good reason for external
industries to consider the locational benefits of the area.
We note further that the predicted rate of containment for Wilton Junction will
increase the overall LGA’s containment rate, but not to the same extent.
Work from Home Potential
According to Census 2011 data, approximately 1,093 or 5.1% of Wollondilly’s
employed persons nominated that they worked from home. Given that the specific
Census question asked to state the method of travel, if any, used to get to work
on a specific day, significant weighting cannot be placed on this finding.
The ABS Locations of Work (2008) publication suggests a slighter higher work
from home rate. It indicates that approximately 7% of persons in the Outer South
West Sydney region worked mainly at home. In estimating a likely work-from-
home outcome for Wilton Junction as at 2041 we need to consider advances in
technology and workplace practices that may facilitate higher rates of tele-
working.
We note, for instance, that Wilton Junction intends to provide access to the NBN
high-speed internet fibre optic (already located at the nearby Jarvisfield
residential estate).
33The ‘Impacts of Teleworking under the NBN (2010)’ report by Access Economics
suggests that improved technologies to be provided under the NBN rollout will act
as a further catalyst for tele-working. The Australian Government’s Department of
Broadband, Communication and the Digital Economy has set a target of 12% by
2020 but also acknowledges the potential regionalisation of businesses that could
be encouraged by the NBN provision. Accordingly, we believe that a work from
home outcome of around 10% is plausible for Wilton Junction (by 2041).
Furthermore, an additional 4-5% of working residents are expected to be engaged
in occupations that are not based at a fixed premises e.g. consultants,
salespersons and some trade orientated occupations. Bureau of Transport
Statistics (2012) data prescribes a rate of 4-5% for New South Wales.
Therefore, at an employment outcome of 10,440 to 11,770 jobs for Wilton
Junction, we estimate that between 1,566 and 1,766 (or 15%) of these jobs will
be carried out from home and non-traditional employment lands.
Alternate Projection Approaches
We note from our research that other approaches have been used to project the
employment outcomes of new development areas. A common method is to apply
a top-down/bottom up estimate that seeks to match projections based on likely
industry profiles.
Another method is to separate population-based industries from those that are
dependent on external or other trade, and to nominate the potential for the latter
by identifying market gaps or industries that match the available skill sets of the
local population.
There are misgivings with either of these approaches, given the ‘market’ basis of
industry’s locational decisions, i.e. which would normally involve a trade-off
between the cost of land and the cost of being located outside an established
employment zone (e.g. transport and other costs).
Our approach has been to develop an evidence-based consideration of prevailing
regional employment trends and expected demographic characteristics of the
Wilton Junction – Housing & Employment Needs
34
WJLGarea, and to assess other locations and the specific employment attributes of the
study area.
Further, to test the derived projections we consider the likely employment
capacities of the various service-based or population-driven industries that will
support Wilton Junction’s population base and step through a staged delivery of
the development to identify particular employment needs at particular points in
time.
Finally, a likely composition of external and other industry potential has been
generated for Wilton Junction, considering the relative ‘locational’ merits
presented at Wilton Junction.
1.4 Future Industry Composition
Based on our local and regional observations we project that a majority
component of the estimated 10,440-11,700 jobs for Wilton junction will be
population based. In this section of the report we ground-proof this projection by
examining in detail the employment capacities of the various industries that make
up this employment component.
At the completion of Wilton Junction, the population of Wollondilly LGA is set to
nearly double, significantly changing the business and employment character of
the area.
We anticipate employment generated at the township to be anchored
predominantly by the specific needs of its incoming residents (i.e. service-based
retail, health, professional services and education/training). Additionally, new
businesses will be attracted to the area for its specific trade and locational
benefits, allowing those businesses to trade externally.
We recognise the potential for Wilton Junction to operate as a freight and logistics
hub, given its geographical and locational advantages in serving southern Sydney,
the Illawarra, the Southern Highlands and Canberra. However there is a lack of
clarity pertaining to policy and infrastructure direction regarding this potential.
35Also, given the development of an intermodal facility at Moorebank and the
abundance of existing and planned employment land in south west Sydney, our
employment forecasts for Wilton Junction are not tied to its development as a
freight and logistics centre. Notwithstanding, Wilton Junction’s transport
connections and regional access will undoubtedly attract businesses that can
benefit from these features.
There is a divergence in business growth which sets the Wollondilly LGA apart
from south-west Sydney. Business and employment growth has been most
pronounced in service-based industries. In contrast, manufacturing and industrial-
based businesses are more prominent in the Outer South West Sydney region,
assisted by significant infrastructure development and employment land zonings.
We examine the likely employment capacities of the various employment sectors
that are expected to locate at Wilton Junction in the following sections of this
report.
Town Centre – Retail & Commercial
The main role and function of the Wilton Junction town centre will be to provide
local supporting commercial services that are complementary to the retail
floorspace. Recreation, community facilities, medical centres, short-term
accommodation, allied health, entertainment uses such as taverns and local
professional suites are expected to locate at the Wilton Junction Town Centre.
Supporting commercial office tenants that may locate within the town centre
include lawyers, accountants, regional businesses, commercial banks (branch),
administration, architecture/design firms, financial planners and arts/creative
industries. We would also expect that early offerings at the town centre would
allow business incubation and business life-cycle evolution.
Estimates of the employment capacities and commentary on the delivery
mechanics of retail and related services is provided in the Section 2 of this report.
In all, retail and related services are expected to generate approximately between
2,000 jobs at Wilton Junction across 70,000m2 of retail provision.
Wilton Junction – Housing & Employment Needs
36
WJLGHealth Care & Social Assistance
The health services sector is projected to be one of the fastest growing sectors in
the Australian economy over the next 10 years. There will be above average per
capita demand for medical centres and allied health professionals at Wilton
Junction, given the likely demographic composition – which will be skewed
towards young families and a higher than average portion of persons aged above
65 years.
Co-located health and medical facilities (including allied health) provision will be
required to ensure that localised demand is sufficiently serviced. In addition, the
possibility (and suitability) of a specialised aged care offering will also amplify the
number of health care professionals in Wilton Junction.
It is envisaged that a large medical and allied health service offering will be
required at Wilton Junction. With the exception of trauma related and other major
health procedures, the medical centre should be capable of undertaking routine
medical procedures. Looking forward, consideration can also be given to the
potential for a small private hospital or day surgery to be situated within the
Wollondilly LGA.
High participation rates amongst young working adults, 3,000+ children (aged
between 0-4 years) and 4,000-odd 65+ year olds are expected to underscore
additions to child care and senior service provision in Wollondilly LGA.
At present, there are 18 childcare centres operating in Wollondilly LGA which, in
total, employ 148 workers2. While some demand arising from Wilton Junction may
be serviced by existing centres, there will be a need for additional services.
An extensive suite of senior programs, courses and services are delivered
throughout the Wollondilly area by Council and major religious affiliations (such as
the Anglican, Presbyterian and Uniting Church). While the current offer is
extensive, the rise in 65+ persons from development at Wilton Junction will
increase demand for a more frequent and broader service provision.
2
According to Census 2011, there were 148 Child Care Service workers in
Wollondilly LGA.
37To gauge the potential employment of health care and social assistance at Wilton
Junction we rely upon the relationship between the population change and
employment across all NSW LGAs. As demand for health care and social
assistance is driven mainly by a portion of the total population, viz., children aged
10 and under, women of children bearing age (25-34 years) and the elderly
(65+), we adjust the state based average to reflect real population conditions at
the new township. The relevant age cohorts comprise approximately 36% of total
population at Wilton Junction.
The derived ratio range suggests that for every increment to population in the
selected age cohorts, an additional 0.10-0.12 jobs are expected to be formed. At
Wilton Junction therefore, an estimated 1,200-1,400 health care and social
assistance jobs are projected.
Education & Training
The Masterplan includes provision for five schools to be in operation by 2031. In
terms of sequencing, two schools are to be in operation by 2016 with a third
under construction. The following five year period to 2021 will see the completion
of the third school and the addition of a fourth. The fifth school is anticipated to
be operational by 2031. In addition to primary and secondary schools, there will
also be demand for career development and skills training programmes and
courses. Demand for this provision will come mainly from persons aged 19-22
years.
Overall, by completion, it is anticipated that there will be approximately 10,200
people between 5 and 22 years of age engaged in some form of educational
training at Wilton Junction.
Staff-to-child ratios provided by the ABS3 show that across all education
provisions there is approximately one teacher to every 14 or 15 students.
Allowing for professional and skills-based development courses, a teacher-to-
student ratio of between 13 and 14 has been implied for Wilton Junction. The
employment outcome is shown below.
3
Catalogue Number 4221.0 – Schools, Australia, 2012
Wilton Junction – Housing & Employment Needs
38
WJLGTable 8. Education and Training Employment – Wilton Junction 2041
Age cohort Anticipated Population Staff to Teacher Ratio Total Jobs Created
5-24 11,140 14 750-800
Source: ABS, MacroPlan Dimasi
An employment potential of 750-800 jobs is generated. We note, however that
the development of a University or TAFE would yield a significantly larger
employment outcome.
Public Administration & Safety
To quantify the potential employment from Public Administration & Safety at
Wilton Junction we again rely on the relationship between population change and
employment across all NSW LGAs.
The observed relationship between population change and change in employment
indicates an average ratio range of 0.025-0.03 across NSW LGAs for employment
growth in the public administration and safety sector. Accordingly, between 875
(i.e. 0.025 x 34,955 residents) and 1,050 jobs (i.e. 0.03 x 34,955 residents) are
expected to be generated in this sector arising from the development of Wilton
Junction, across the Wollondilly LGA.
We note, at this stage, there has been no specific indication that any government
departments will move to Wilton Junction or that Council’s chambers will be
relocated to the new township.
Rather, our employment forecast demonstrates the average additional number of
jobs generated in this sector from population growth. Some of the expected
increase in employment demand will be absorbed by the established towns of
Wollondilly. Other new employment opportunities will ensue. As such, an
employment outcome of between 600-680 jobs is expected for this industry at
Wilton Junction.
Arts & Recreation Services
The arts and recreational service industry is a population driven industry that will
directly benefit from population growth at Wilton Junction. Aggregate LGA data for
39NSW shows an average relationship between population and employment change
in the range of 0.01-0.012.
We envisage that arts and recreation services will not be required by all Wilton
Junction residents. Assuming an average penetration rate of 40% and 50% (of
total population), between 140-200 jobs are expected to be generated within this
industry.
Other Services
The ‘Other Services’ sector is also a population driven service industry. It includes
repair and maintenance jobs (automotive and machinery), personal and other
services and the employment of persons by private households.
An employment formation ratio of between 0.012-0.015 jobs per additional
person is ascertained from our state-wide analysis. Including trade captured from
Hume Highway patronage and from other parts of Wollondilly LGA, we estimate
an additional 600-780 jobs related to this sector in direct association with the
development of Wilton Junction.
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Service
The electricity, gas, water and waste service industry is also related to population.
Employment generation is expected to occur during the initial phase of
development of Wilton Junction.
External or Other Industries
For industries that mainly service external markets (i.e. those that are not
predominantly population driven), ‘locational’ attributes and comparative
advantage present as the two main considerations for business formation.
Industries that service mainly external markets include ‘Transport, Postal &
Warehousing’, ‘Manufacturing’ and ‘Warehouse Trade’.
In order to derive an employment outcome for Wilton Junction for these types of
industries, we firstly consider an employment exemplar - Somersby, located at
the Central Coast (NSW). Somersby has similar attributes to Wilton Junction. It is
located a similar distance from Sydney and is adjacent to a major highway (the
F3). It hosts a range of industrial and business enterprises in a business park type
Wilton Junction – Housing & Employment Needs
40
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