Wakefield Council, UK Policy Alert: Corona - update 19th February - Regional Studies ...
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Wakefield Council, UK
Policy Alert: Corona – update 19th February
• ONS: Coronavirus and the latest indicators for the UK economy and society: 18 February 2021
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bull
etins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/18february2021
o 20% of the workforce of all UK businesses were on furlough leave, a slight increase from 18% in the
previous 2 weeks but considerably lower than during the first national lockdown where 30% of
businesses' workforce were on furlough leave in early June 2020.
o Debit and credit card purchases decreased by 3 percentage points from the previous week to 72%
of their February 2020 average.
o Card spending on “staples” was 106% of its February 2020 average. On the other hand, “delayable”,
“social” and “work-related” purchases were 58%, 55% and 62% of levels seen in February 2020,
respectively
o The proportion of working adults who in the last seven days travelled to work (either exclusively or
in combination with working from home) has decreased by 3 percentage points when compared
with the previous period to 44%.
o Working exclusively from home remained broadly unchanged with the previous week at 37%, the
highest proportion since June 2020
o Overall UK retail footfall increased by 3 percentage points to 39% of its level when compared with
the equivalent week of 2020.
o Footfall also rose at high streets and shopping centres, increasing by 3 and 2 percentage points
respectively to 31% and 29% of its level in the equivalent week of 2020.
o The volume of UK online job adverts increased slightly by 1 percentage point to 81% of the level
seen in the same week last year.
o The volume of all motor vehicle traffic saw a weekly increase of 8 percentage points to 68% of the
level seen in the first week of February 2020.
o The main downward contributor to the overall price movement in the latest week was “sugar, jam,
syrup, chocolate and confectionery”, which saw its price fall by 0.8%.
o This price fall was mostly because of the falling price of chocolate.
o The main rising category was “vegetables including potatoes and tubers”, which experienced a 0.3%
price increase.
o Crisps were the reason for the price increase of this category,
• ONS: UK House Price inflation December 2020
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/housepriceindex/december2020
o UK average house prices increased by 8.5% over the year to December 2020, up from 7.1% in
November 2020, to stand at a record high of £252,000;
o This is the highest annual growth rate the UK has seen since October 2014.
o Average house prices increased over the year in England to £269,000 (8.5%), in Wales to £184,000
(10.7%), in Scotland to £163,000 (8.4%) and in Northern Ireland to £148,000 (5.3%).
o Average house price in Yorkshire and the Humber is now £182,907.
o The North West was the English region to see the highest annual growth in average house prices
(11.2%), while London saw the lowest (3.5%). Yorkshire and Humber prices rose by 10.4%
o The pandemic may have also caused house buyers to reassess their housing preferences. The
average price of detached properties increased by 10.0% in the year to December 2020, in
comparison with flats and maisonettes increasing by 5.0% over the same period.• Resolution Foundation: Long Covid In The Labour Market:
https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2021/02/Long-covid-in-the-labour-market.pdf
o The January lockdown does not appear to have led to a very significant additional deterioration of
conditions in the labour market, but it remains in a fragile position.
o The crisis continues to be highly sector-specific in its impacts, with workers in hospitality, leisure,
and non-supermarket retail much more likely than workers in other parts of the economy to have
found themselves out of work, on furlough, or earning less than they were before the crisis,
including over seven-in-ten hospitality workers and more than half of those in non-food retail.
o These sectoral differences are in turn driving the greater impacts experienced by the youngest (and
older) workers, and those in low paid jobs – 18-24-year-olds are twice as likely to have faced an
impact as those in middle age.
o Sector of work is by far the most important factor in explaining employment effects. Personal
characteristics, such as age, sex, and location, matter much less once sector is taken into account.
o Women have, however, borne the brunt of the crisis in other ways – for example, the crisis has
worsened within-household inequalities in the apportionment of childcare and housework.
o A new feature of this crisis is the large number of workers who have spent extended periods on full
furlough. The number of workers who in January had been on full furlough for at least six months
(475,000) is nearly as large as the number of people in January who had been unemployed for at
least six months (689,000).
o Altogether, 1.9 million people have spent the past six months unemployed or on full furlough.
o Some of the negative impacts of long-term unemployment that have a ‘scarring’ effect on workers
will also be features of long periods of furlough. This includes a loss of skills (either in absolute
terms, or relative to increases that would have occurred in the workplace).
o Those furloughed workers that do return to work are likely to experience slower pay growth as a
result, again due to having missed out on the growth in skills and experience that would have
happened at work. This will be especially acute for young people.
o The self-employed have continued to face a big hit, and gaps in support remain. The duration of the
crisis has led to more of the previously self-employed ceasing to work entirely. In January, 14% of
those who were self-employed before the crisis were no longer working, up from 11% in
September and 9% in May. (note - Wakefield data appears to support this trend - NOMIS estimate
18,300 self employed people in June 2020, dropping to 17,100 in September 2020)
o The hit to the self-employed has remained much more broad-based across groups and sectors than
that for employees.
o 8% of those in employment in January either expected to lose their job or had been told they would
be made redundant, rising to 21% of those who had spent more than six months on furlough.
o Those who are worried about losing their job are already looking for work. Overall, 14% of those in
employment are already job-hunting, with a further 10% set to join them within three months.
o Among those who expect to lose their job, 65% are either already looking or plan to start within
three months.
o Among job-seekers who are unemployed or furloughed, only 14% are confident of finding work
within the next month, while 37% are not confident that they will find a job within the next year.
o Those who have been unemployed for more than six months are the most discouraged: 53% of this
group do not think they will have a job in a year’s time.
o 8% of respondents plan to move sectors after the pandemic either because they have had put
planned moves on hold because of the crisis (6%) or because they have made unplanned sector
moves during the crisis and would like to move again (2%).
o Hospitality workers are most likely to wish to leave their sector, with 23% planning to do so.
o There is no evidence that people plan to leave the labour force any more than before the crisis. In
fact, older workers (aged 55-65) who have been furloughed during the crisis are more likely to plan
to continue working after the crisis has passed than those who have not been furloughed, indicating
that people are planning to delay retirement to make up for lost income.
o Recent estimates that 1.3 million foreign born people have left the UK are overstated, with the true
number likely closer to 0.5 million – still a huge figure.o Despite optimism over projections showing GDP rising sharply in 2021, growth will either not return
or will not reach everyone without the right set of policies to support the labour market.
o Recommendations:
maintaining the full JRS for at least two months after the current widespread national
restrictions (limiting transport use and leaving the house for non-essential purposes) come
to an end, given the lags involved in deploying and reallocating workers. Depending on
reopening timelines this could mean the end of May or June.
Job support should then begin to distinguish between those sectors which remain shut or
severely restricted as a matter of law and those which are not directly affected by social
distancing measures. For the latter, the JRS should then be converted into a purely partial
furloughing scheme.
For those sectors still substantially prevented from opening, for instance while the
hospitality sector is not allowed to return to operating indoors, the existing JRS should
remain open.
there is a strong case for a targeted wage subsidy scheme that offsets the temporary
productivity shock that some sectors will still face as a result of ongoing social distancing
restrictions.
The SEISS should take a similar approach to the Job Retention Scheme and pay self-
employed workers 80% of losses (rather than pre-crisis profits), capped at £2,500 a month.
Government should extend SEISS eligibility to those who earn less than 50% of their income
from self-employment, as well as those whose pre-crisis profits were more than £50,000 a
year.
A more central role for local authorities in driving the creation of Kickstart placements –
especially in weaker local labour markets.
Long-term unemployment programmes should be open to those on long-term furlough and
be alive to the changing state of the health crisis.
Job Centre Plus work coaches should have the flexibility to waive the restriction on adults
entering free FE courses who already have a Level 3 qualification where nature of existing
qualifications is a barrier to progression.
A temporary increase in the threshold above which employers make National Insurance
Contributions (NICs) where firms increase their headcount via new hires.
Policy will need to turn to job creation measures. Resolution foundation has previously
identified two labour-intensive candidates for investment: social care and green jobs like
retrofitting. Both sectors support longer-term policy goals around care and energy
efficiency, are regionally dispersed and in most cases have lower qualification-based
barriers to entry than do larger infrastructure projects like power stations or railways.
• IPSOS MORI: Experiences of remote appointments: What does 2020 GP Patient Survey data tell us?
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/experiences-remote-appointments-what-does-2020-gp-patient-
survey-data-tell-us
o 10% of patients surveyed said that the last appointment they made with their GP practice had been
remote – by phone or online, such as through video calls. Of these, the majority reported having
phone appointments (9.8%) and 0.2% said their last GP appointment had been online.
o Older patients were more likely to have made a phone appointment (12.9% of 85+ year olds,
compared with 7.0% of 16-24 year olds). Younger patients, particularly those aged 25-34, were
most likely to have made an online appointment (0.4%).
o Overall, patients still felt listened to and treated with care and concern when seen remotely. Of
those who had a remote appointment, 83% felt they were given enough time, 85% felt they were
treated with care and concern, and 86% felt listened to by the healthcare professional.
o While seeing their own general practice staff in person remained the preferred choice overall,
results are a promising indication that in the absence of face-to-face contact, patients can feel that
their medical needs are properly addressed by a healthcare professional in a remote environment.• Policy Exchange think tank : Strong Suburbs - Enabling streets to control their own development
https://policyexchange.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/Strong-Suburbs.pdf
o Many parts of Britain suffer from an acute housing shortage, manifested in enormous gaps between
prices and construction costs.
o Previous schemes aiming to resolve this issue have often failed, because the homeowners who
make up two thirds of the British public have generally seen development as placing large burdens
on them without any corresponding benefits.
o There is a need a scheme that creates more good homes and better places in a way that shares the
benefits with existing residents and communities, so they may become enthusiastic advocates of
building rather than vigorous opponents
o Recommendations:
Residents of a street should be able to agree by a high majority on new strict rules for
designs to make better use of their plots.
Limits on the development rights that streets can allow themselves, designed to minimise
impact on neighbouring streets: light plane rules, rules stopping ‘garden grabbing’, rules on
height, and rules restricting how much on street parking new residents could be used.
Redevelopment of listed and pre-1918 properties would be prohibited.
Capital Gains Tax to be levied on the value uplift resulting from a street vote, and its
revenues hypothecated to local authorities, as well as Stamp Duty Land Tax being partly
redirected, temporarily, also to local authorities.
A net-zero whole life carbon condition would be imposed on all redevelopment of homes
through street votes.
• Keir Starmer MP speech: A New Chapter for Britain (key policy soundbites) https://labour.org.uk/press/full-
text-of-keir-starmer-speech-on-a-new-chapter-for-britain/
o “This must now be a moment to think again about the country that we want to be. A call to arms –
like the Beveridge Report was in the 1940s. A chance to diagnose the condition of Britain… and to
start the process of putting it right.”
o A Labour Budget:.
Wouldn’t cut the £20 uplift in Universal Credit, benefiting 6 million families by £1,000 a year
Would provide local councils with the funding they need to prevent huge rises in council tax
End a pay freeze for key workers.
Extend business rate relief and the VAT cut for hospitality and leisure.
Ease the burden of debt that weighs down so many businesses.
Extend and update the furlough scheme so it’s better able to help people back into work.
Fix the holes in the government’s Kickstart jobs scheme.
o Introduce a new British Recovery Bond to invest in local communities, jobs and businesses, science,
skills, technology and British manufacturing. It would also provide security for savers.
o invests in British skills, science, universities and manufacturing, that provides world-class education
for all children, and whose driving mission is to tackle inequalities from birth.
o work with trade unions and businesses to shape the future of work, and harness the opportunities
of new technology.
o Ensure people don’t have to leave their hometown to have a chance of getting a good job and
won’t leave university with crippling debt.
o Build a new generation of affordable homes.
o Ensure care homes are places of dignity.
o Put tackling the climate emergency at the centre of everything we do
o Provide start-up loans for 100,000 new businesses across every region of the UK.
o A new partnership with British businesses to build a secure economy, strong families and a
prosperous country.And for some weekend reading? The mysterious economics of Uber… https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2021/02/hubert-horan-can-uber-ever-deliver-part-twenty-four-uber-loses- another-6-8-billion.html “Last Thursday, Uber announced a full year 2020 loss of $6.8 billion. Covid-19 significantly reduced Uber revenues, just as the pandemic has devastated dozens of other urban services and transport businesses. The huge ($4.7 billion, 43%) year-over-year decline in Uber’s core car service revenue was partially offset by a 93% increase in delivery revenue, but the central story here remains unchanged. Uber’s rides business never had any hope of earning sustainable profits, even without the virus. The delivery volumes added have substantially worse margins and have done nothing to create a path to future profitability.” ... and Amazon buying up all the cardboard boxes. https://www.wired.co.uk/article/amazon-cardboard-boxes- recycling “ The egg box shortage of 2020 was a warning of what was to come. In recent weeks, retailers across the UK have complained that they are unable to source cardboard boxes at all. Amazon and other big retailers have snapped up most of the world’s cardboard supply to fulfil online orders, leaving smaller businesses unable to get their hands on boxes of their own. The price of corrugated cardboard, which is old boxes that can be reused to make new ones, has trebled in the last year from $25 a ton to $75.”
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