Wake-up call for Europe! - FES Vienna
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2019
Wake-up call
for Europe!Inhalt
Introduction......................................................................................................................................................................... 2
Methodology: Multi-Country CATI-Survey....................................................................................................................... 4
Germany.............................................................................................................................................................................. 6
France................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Latvia.................................................................................................................................................................................. 10
Poland................................................................................................................................................................................ 12
Russia................................................................................................................................................................................. 14
Serbia................................................................................................................................................................................. 16
Ukraine............................................................................................................................................................................... 18
Imprint............................................................................................................................................................................... 20
1Introduction
In the context of dramatic challenges for the European with the certainty that we had a quarter of a century ago.
Security architecture, new emerging cold and hot con-
flicts, an annexation, and intensifying cyber attacks, the The representative public opinion poll, held in seven Eu-
Security Radar 2019 – Wake-up call for Europe analysis ropean countries, was developed by the FES Regional Of-
aims to shed light on two main factors which have a subs- fice for Cooperation and Peace in Europe and conducted
tantial impact on political decision makers: public opinion by Ipsos Berlin. It systematically analyses and investigates
in general, and expert perspectives in particular, regar- the attitudes and values related to the current security
ding the security and foreign policy situation in Europe. and foreign policy situation in Europe, five years after the
eruption of the crisis in Ukraine and the annexation of Cri-
The aim of the analysis is to provide in-depth information mea by Russia.
on a topic that is relevant for both politicians and society
as a whole. In the 30 years since the fall of the Berlin Wall Seven countries were chosen to participate in this public
and the seemingly solid and peaceful road towards Euro- opinion poll. They are France and Germany, two founding
pean unity, new division have opened up within Europe, members of the organisation now known as the Europe-
and even within the European Union. an Union; Latvia and Poland who joined the EU in 2004;
Serbia, which has had full candidate status for EU mem-
According to some experts, even though there are far bership since 2013; Ukraine, which signed an Association
fewer conventional and nuclear weapons on its territory, Agreement with the EU in 2014 and a Deep and Compre-
Europe appears to be in a worse situation today than it hensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) with the EU in
was during the Cold War. The experts suggest that the 2016; and lastly, Russia.
rules and common understanding that once guided the
world through dangerous moments are becoming more The choice of the seven countries detailed above for
and more irrelevant. A military conflict cannot be excluded participation in the poll was based on their importance
2for European security: France and Germany are, for the In addition to the poll, active political consulting experts
moment, the two remaining major countries of the EU, from the above-mentioned countries were involved in
whose support is necessary for any possible initiatives; group discussions, intended to determine the typical
Poland is the most powerful Central Eastern Europe- mindset of the local expert community: to reveal how
an EU member state; Latvia is a member of the histori- experts evaluated the current situation and what actions
cally volatile Baltic region and a former Soviet republic; they recommended accordingly. In each country a small
Serbia is a very important country in Southeast Europe, group of approximately five experts participated in an
with ties to the EU but with cultural affinity to Russia; active and open discussion. The criteria for including the
Ukraine is the largest country of the Eastern Partner- experts were
ship programme and is currently trying to defend itself (a) proven expertise and knowledge, as acknowledged wi-
against separatists backed by Russia in Donbass. Last, but thin the country-specific expert discourse and
not least, the poll includes Russia, because without Russia (b) established influence on the political discourse within
any talk of security in Europe is pointless. the country.
In each of these seven countries the survey measu-
red the values and attitudes in five dimensions:
• Perception of the current threat situation
• Trust and attitudes towards institutions
• Attitudes towards foreign and security policy
• Attitudes towards national identity FES ROCPE
• Prospects for the development of security policy info@fes-vienna.org
in Europe www.security-radar.eu
3Methodology: Multi-Country CATI-Survey
Countries: Germany, France, Latvia, Poland, Russia, Ukraine, Serbia
Mode: Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI)
Sampling: Random sampling, representative for the population of the country
Target group: Resident population aged 18+ that lives in a private household
and is attainable via landline and / or mobile telephone connection
Interviews: n=1,000 interviews in each country, 7,000 in total
Weighting: The sample structure of the reported results is adjusted to the
official statistics (weighting based on age, gender and region)
Fieldwork: August – October 2018
Notes:
All percentages quoted in this report represent combined shares of answers “agree” and “somewhat agree”.
Question on the influence of international organisations was asked about each of the organisations separately
in the following form: “In your opinion, which of the following institutions should play a bigger role in the future? ”
Military expenditures data:
International Institute for Strategic Studies: The Military Balance 2018. London: Routledge 2018, p. 502 ff.
GDP data:
IMF World Economic Outlook 2018
45
GERMANY
Germany
Parliamentary federal Concerns
Polity
republic
Population 82.7 million 37% 24%
GDP $ 4 029.1 billion If I think of In view of
the various increasing tensions
Active armed forces 179 000 developments in between Russia
my country and and the West,
Defence spending $ 41 734 million
in the world, I think new wars in
Defence spending I am concerned Europe are likely.
1.14%
% GDP about my
personal future.
50% 33%
The USA Russia is a
is a threat threat to
to security security in
in Europe. Europe.
6My country does not have the status in the world it These organisations should play a bigger
deserves in comparison with other countries. role in the future.
81% 79%
70%
54%
26%
UN EU OSCE NATO
Ukraine should become Ukraine should become Germany should not increase its
a member of the EU. a member of NATO. military spending.
26% 23%
54%
7FRANCE
France
Semi‑presidential Concerns
Polity
republic
Population 67.1 million 44% 32%
GDP $ 2 794.7 billion If I think of In view of
the various increasing tensions
Active armed forces 203 000 developments in between Russia
my country and and the West,
Defence spending $ 48 640 million
in the world, I think new wars in
Defence spending I am concerned Europe are likely.
1.89%
% GDP about my
personal future.
44% 40%
The USA Russia is a
is a threat threat to
to security security in
in Europe. Europe.
8My country does not have the status in the world it These organisations should play a bigger
deserves in comparison with other countries. role in the future.
68% 64%
45% 45%
33%
UN EU OSCE NATO
Ukraine should become Ukraine should become To ward off dangers to France it is permitted to
a member of the EU. a member of NATO. carry out military actions in other countries.
28% 27%
55%
9LATVIA
Latvia
Concerns
Polity Parliamentary republic
Population 1.9 million
GDP $ 34.3 billion
61% 49%
If I think of In view of
Active armed forces 5 000 the various increasing tensions
developments in between Russia
Defence spending $ 507 million
my country and and the West,
Defence spending in the world, I think new wars in
1.68%
% GDP I am concerned Europe are likely.
about my
personal future.
47% 50%
The USA Russia is a
is a threat threat to
to security security in
in Europe. Europe.
10My country does not have the status in the world it These organisations should play a bigger
deserves in comparison with other countries. role in the future.
79% 77% 77%
67%
55%
UN EU OSCE NATO
Ukraine should become Ukraine should become Relations between Russia and many European
a member of the EU. a member of NATO. states are currently influenced by a lack
of cooperation.
53% 47%
84%
11Poland
POLAND
Semi-presidential Concerns
Polity
republic
Population 38 million 64% 57%
GDP $ 549.5 billion If I think of In view of
the various increasing tensions
Active armed forces 105 000 developments in between Russia
my country and and the West,
Defence spending $ 9 837 million
in the world, I think new wars in
Defence spending I am concerned Europe are likely.
1.93%
% GDP about my
personal future.
34% 77%
The USA Russia is a
is a threat threat to
to security security in
in Europe. Europe.
12My country does not have the status in the world it These organisations should play a bigger
deserves in comparison with other countries. role in the future.
81% 78%
68% 74%
67%
UN EU OSCE NATO
Ukraine should become Ukraine should become Russia constitutes the greatest threat
a member of the EU. a member of NATO. for Poland.
68% 67%
79%
13Russia
RUSSIA
Federal Concerns
Polity semi-presidential
republic
81% 59%
Population 144.5 million If I think of In view of
GDP $ 1 576.5 billion the various increasing tensions
developments in between Russia
Active armed forces 900 000 my country and and the West,
Defence spending $ 45 600 million in the world, I think new wars in
I am concerned Europe are likely.
Defence spending about my
3.1%
% GDP personal future.
78% 12%
The USA Russia is a
is a threat threat to
to security security in
in Europe. Europe.
14My country does not have the status in the world it These organisations should play a bigger
deserves in comparison with other countries. role in the future.
79% 75%
68%
40%
56%
UN EU OSCE NATO
Ukraine should become Ukraine should become Influential states should take a leadership
a member of the EU. a member of NATO. role in international politics.
20% 7%
81%
15Serbia
SERBIA
Concerns
Polity Parliamentary republic
Population 7 million
GDP $ 47.7 billion
74% 49%
If I think of In view of
Active armed forces 28 000 the various increasing tensions
developments in between Russia
Defence spending $ 523 million
my country and and the West,
Defence spending in the world, I think new wars in
1.33%
% GDP I am concerned Europe are likely.
about my
personal future.
71% 23%
The USA Russia is a
is a threat threat to
to security security in
in Europe. Europe.
16My country does not have the status in the world it These organisations should play a bigger
deserves in comparison with other countries. role in the future.
70%
59% 63%
85%
16%
UN EU OSCE NATO
Ukraine should become Ukraine should become Serbia should increase its
a member of the EU. a member of NATO. military spending.
46% 16%
77%
17Ukraine
UKRAINE
Semi-presidential Concerns
Polity
republic
Population 44.8 million 83% 59%
GDP $ 126.4 billion If I think of In view of
the various increasing tensions
Active armed forces 204 000 developments in between Russia
my country and and the West,
Defence spending $ 2 734 million
in the world, I think new wars in
Defence spending I am concerned Europe are likely.
2.63%
% GDP about my
personal future.
27% 68%
The USA Russia is a
is a threat threat to
to security security in
in Europe. Europe.
18My country does not have the status in the world it These organisations should play a bigger
deserves in comparison with other countries. role in the future.
76% 71%
61% 67%
74%
UN EU OSCE NATO
Ukraine should become Ukraine should become The conflict in and around Ukraine is a domestic
a member of the EU. a member of NATO. matter and should be left to Ukraine.
73% 56%
63%
19Imprint FES Regional Office for Cooperation and Peace in Europe Reichsratsstr. 13/5, A-1010 Vienna Phone: +43 1 890 38 11 15 Fax: +43 1 890 38 11 20 http://www.fes-vienna.org Responsible: Dr. Reinhard Krumm Cover Illustration: Daniel Seex, www.thejoyofseex.com Design: Cristina Popowa, www.buntstift.cc Concept: Daniela N. Barth, www.barth-consulting.at Commercial use of all media published by the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES) is not permitted without the written consent of the FES. 20
22 www.security-radar.eu
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