Venezuela National Public Opinion Survey - April 2019 - GBA ...
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Venezuela National Public Opinion Survey April 2019
Methodology Figure 1 ❖ National survey o Conducted April 11 to 28, 2019 o 980 face-to-face interviews o Margin of error is +/- 3.1 at the 95% confidence level o Demographically and geographically representative
Conclusions Figure 2 ❖ Extreme polarization ❖ Rejection of Maduro regime, but base of support ❖ Strong support for Guaidó ❖ U.S. and allied countries viewed positively ❖ Support for elections under Guaidó and targeted sanctions ❖ Division on military foreign intervention ❖ Chávez’s legacy mixed
Maduro Widely Rejected,
but Has a Base of Support
Figure 3Political blocs Figure 4
Political Blocs
PSUV
Supporters of anti-regime political parties
28
31
No party affiliation
41Demographic breakdown of political blocs Figure 5
PSUV Anti-regime Unaffiliated
18 - 29 32 43 40
30 - 39 23 24 22
40 - 49 18 14 23
50 - 59 18 14 11
50+ years: 50+ years: 50+ years:
60+ 26 18 16
8 4 5
Some high school 27 17 21
High school graduates 54 48 45
Technical studies/some univ 12 25 26
University grad/post-grad 6 9 8
Rural 32 17 18
Urban 64 78 78
0 20 40 60 80 0 20 40 60 80 0 20 40 60 80Profound dissatisfaction, but regime maintains considerable base Figure 6
Generally speaking, would you say the situation in the country is going in a very good, good, bad, or very bad
direction?
Very good Very good/good Very bad Very bad/bad
100
90 98
90
80
70 75
71
60 68
50 54
40 45
30
29
20 24
10 2
7 9
0 3
1 0 0
Total PSUV Anti-regime UnaffiliatedPoor rating for Maduro's performance, and extraordinary polarization Figure 7
In general terms, how would you rate the government of Nicolás Maduro?
Excellent/good Very bad/bad Excellent Excellent/good
Very bad Very bad/bad
February June April
2018 2018 2019 April 2019 – Bloc
100 100
90 90 99
95
80 75 74 73 80 86
70 70
69 70
60 60
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 25 20
24 23
10 10
12 0 3
0 0 6
PSUV Anti-regime UnaffiliatedMaduro has lost support from lower social classes Figure 8
In general terms, how would you rate the government of Nicolás Maduro?
Excellent Excellent/good Very bad Very bad/bad
Education
100
90
80 84 82
70
70
60 66 65
60
50
40 49
43
30
31 29
20
10 16 17
0
Some High school Technical studies/ University grad/
high school graduates some university post-gradVenezuelans reject other PSUV leaders Figure 9
Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people or institutions with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM,
FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm
or cold.
Favorable Unfavorable
100
90
80
70
72
68 69
60
50
40
30
20 26 24
23
10
0
Nicolás Maduro Diosdado Cabello Vladimir PadrinoOpinions of military and their families dovetail with those of civilians Figure 10
Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people or institutions with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM,
FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm
or cold.
Favorable Unfavorable
Nicolás Maduro Diosdado Cabello Vladimir Padrino
100
90
80
70
69 71 72 69
60 65 68
50
40
30
20 28 26 25
23 23 24
10
0
Soldiers/ Non-military Soldiers/ Non-military Soldiers/ Non-military
family in families family in families family in families
military military militaryGovernment blamed for economic crisis and blackouts Figure 11
And who do you think is to blame for the economic Who is to blame for the electric blackout in
situation in Venezuela: the Maduro government, the Venezuela: the Maduro government, the United
United States, the opposition, or private States, the opposition, or private companies?
companies?
The government 64 The government 68
United States 12 United States 16
The opposition 12 The opposition 9
Private companies 4 Private companies 1
0 20 40 60 80 0 20 40 60 80Frustration with rejection of humanitarian aid Figure 12
Do you think that the government of Nicolás Maduro should have allowed the entry of humanitarian assistance
provided by the United States, Brazil and other countries that recognize Juan Guaidó or do you think the Maduro
government was right to block the entry of humanitarian aid into the country?
Total Bloc
100
90 96 93
80
70 78
25
60
50
40
30
73 20
10 15 4 5
0
PSUV Anti-regime Unaffiliated
Allowed Blocked Allowed BlockedDisapproval of Maduro-backed institutions Figure 13
Now, I'm going to read some institutions: When I read each name, please tell me if you strongly approve, approve,
disapprove or strongly disapprove of the role that institution has played in the present political situation.
Approve Disapprove
100
90
80
70
60 67 66
63
59
50
40
30 38
34 33
31
20
10
0
Asamblea Nacional Asamblea Nacional Tribunal Supremo Consejo Nacional
Constituyente de Justicia ElectoralLarge-scale migration will continue, with political impact Figure 14
Thinking about the next few months, what would you prefer: move to another country or stay in Venezuela?
Total Bloc
100
90 96
9 80
70
32
60
50
40 47
40 43
30 36
56
20
8
10 4 15
0
0
PSUV Anti-regime Unaffiliated
Move to another country
Stay in Venezuela
Depends on how things go Move to another country Stay in Venezuela Depends on how things goStrong Backing for Guaidó
Figure 15Guaidó is only politician with favorable rating Figure 16
I would like to measure your feelings towards some people and institutions.
Favorable Unfavorable
100
90
80
70
60
50 54 54
52
40 45
39
30 36
29 30
20
10
0
Henrique Capriles Leopoldo López María Corina Machado Juan GuaidóConfidence in Guaidó’s leadership Figure 17
How would you rate the role played by Juan How much confidence do you have in Juan Guaidó
Guaidó as interim president appointed by the to lead a political transition in Venezuela: a lot,
National Assembly: excellent, good, bad or very some, little or no confidence?
bad?
Excellent Excellent/good A lot A lot/some
Very bad Very bad/bad None None/little
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
60 60
50 59
50 58
40 40
39
30 30
33 32 30
20 20
22
10 16 10
0 0Guaidó seen as more than just a transition figure Figure 18
If presidential elections are held while Guaidó is interim president, do you think he should run as a candidate or
should he only serve as president during the transition?
Total Bloc
100
90
80 85
70
28 68
60 65
50
40
30
60
20
10 14 15
13
0
PSUV Anti-regime Unaffiliated
Run as candidate Only transitional Run as candidate Only transitionalGuaidó would easily defeat Maduro Figure 19
If presidential elections are held this year, and the candidates are Nicolás Maduro and Juan Guaidó, for whom
would you vote?
Total Bloc
100
90 95 93
8 80
70 75
28
60
50
40
30
20
61
10 3 6
1 1 2 13
0
PSUV Anti-regime Unaffiliated
Maduro Guaidó Don't know yet Maduro Guaidó Don't know yetMaduro would lose election under any scenario Figure 20
And if the candidates were Nicolás Maduro and And if the candidates were Nicolás Maduro,
Leopoldo López, for whom would you vote? Leopoldo López and Henry Falcón, for whom
would you vote?
100 100
90 90
80 80
70 70
60 60
50 57 50
48
40 40
30 30
28 27
20 20
10 10
9 10 9
0 0
Maduro López No sabe Maduro López Falcón No sabe
todavía todavíaSupport for Elections Under Guaidó
and Targeted Sanctions
Figure 21Clear majority wants Armed Forces to support Guaidó Figure 22
And what do you want the members of the armed forces to do: maintain their loyalty to Maduro and the military
high command or support the government of Juan Guaidó?
Total Bloc
100
90 97
91
80
70
31 60 67
50
40
58 30
20
10 2
1 9
0
PSUV Anti-regime Unaffiliated
Maduro Guaidó Maduro GuaidóSoldiers and their families want military to support Guaidó Figure 23
And what do you want the members of the armed forces to do: maintain their loyalty to Maduro and the military
high command or support the government of Juan Guaidó?
Maduro Guaidó
100
90
80
70
60
59
50 55
40
30 33 31
20
10
0
Soldiers/ Non-military families
family in militaryOpponents support amnesty for government and army Figure 24
As you know, Juan Guaidó has offered an amnesty to senior government officials, including Nicolás Maduro, and
members of the army who support a transition to a new constitutional government. Crimes against humanity, such
as murder and torture, would be exempt from amnesty. Do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat
disagree, or strongly disagree with amnesty for government officials and army members who support a transition
to a new constitutional government?
Strongly agree Strongly disagree
Strongly/somewhat agree Strongly/somewhat disagree
100
90
80
70 77
60 70
62 64
50
52
40
42
30 35 36 20
20 29 13 28
24
10 16 15
6
0
Total PSUV Anti-regime UnaffiliatedSupport for elections under Guaidó, sanctions and action by army Figure 25
Now I am going to read you a list of possible ways to solve the political situation in Venezuela. For each of them, please tell me if you
strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree?
Strongly agree Strongly/somewhat agree
Nicolás Maduro resigns, and new elections are held under the provisional
presidency of Juan Guaidó 55 65
Foreign countries sanction more Venezuelan officials by freezing their
assets and prohibiting their ability to travel to certain countries 47 62
Majority
support
The Venezuelan Army removes Nicolás Maduro from the presidency 49 60
Supporters of Juan Guaidó, including soldiers who left the armed forces,
take up arms to overthrow Maduro 33 52
International mediators convene a dialogue between the government and
the opposition 25 52
The United States and other countries impose additional restrictions on
the Maduro government's ability to access financial resources 35 51
0 20 40 60 80 100Greater consensus on mediated dialogue Figure 26
Please tell me if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree?
International mediators convene a dialogue between the government and the opposition
Strongly/somewhat agree Strongly agree
Bloc
100
90
80
70
60 67
50
40 45 48
30
30 27
20
20
10
0
PSUV Anti-regime UnaffiliatedDivision on foreign military action; rejection of regime as part of solution Figure 27
Now I am going to read you a list of possible ways to solve the political situation in Venezuela. For each of them, please tell me if you
strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree?
Strongly agree Strongly/somewhat agree
The United States and other foreign countries conduct a military
operation to remove Nicolás Maduro from the presidency 35 49
The United States conducts a military operation alone to remove Nicolás
Maduro from the presidency 31 49 Less than
majority
support
An interim government is formed by representatives of Maduro and
Guaidó to supervise new presidential elections and a political transition 21 47
Representatives of Nicolás Maduro and Juan Guaidó meet for direct
negotiations 19 42
New presidential elections are held while Nicolás Maduro remains in
power 20 35
Nicolás Maduro resigns, and another PSUV leader assumes the
Presidency 10 19
0 20 40 60 80 100Public divided on foreign military intervention Figure 28
With which of the following statements do you agree more?
It is premature to consider a foreign military intervention to
14
resolve the political situation in Venezuela
Total
Now is the time to consider a foreign military intervention to
41
resolve the political situation in Venezuela
It will never be appropriate to consider a foreign military
43
intervention to resolve the political situation in Venezuela
0 20 40 60 80Most anti-regime parties and non-affiliated want intervention now Figure 29
With which of the following statements do you agree more?
Premature Now is the moment Never appropriate
….to consider a foreign military intervention to resolve the political situation in Venezuela
100
90
93
80
70
60
50 58
55
40
30
20 27
21 19
10 6
0 13
0
PSUV Anti-regime UnaffiliatedDivision on sanctions against PDVSA Figure 30
Have you seen or heard anything recently about The United States recently banned payments for
the actions of the United States with respect to Venezuelan oil to PDVSA. Do you support or
PDVSA? oppose this action by the U.S. government?
Yes No Support Oppose
100 100
90 90
93
80 80
70 70
73
60 67 60
50 50
53
40 40 48 46
30 30
32 33
20 20
23
10 10 7
0 0
Total Total PSUV Anti-regime UnaffiliatedConcerns about impact of sanctions Figure 31
Thinking about the sanctions imposed by the United States and other countries on Venezuela in the last two years,
have you and your family been impacted negatively or have you not been impacted?
Total Social class
100
90
80
70
73
34 60
61
50 57 55
40
59 30
33 31
20 29
22
10
0
C D E Rural
Negatively impacted Not impacted Negatively impacted Not impactedAttitudes on Role of United States,
EU and Lima Group
Figure 32Support for role of United States and allied countries Figure 33
Now I am going to read you a list of countries. After each one, please tell me if you think that country is playing a very positive, positive,
negative or very negative role in the current situation in Venezuela.
Colombia 64
32
United States 59 Total positive
37
59 Total negative
Brazil
29
European Union 57
27
Canada 54
28
Mexico 50
34
China 48
43
Russia 43
50
Turkey 40
44
Iran 34
49
Cuba 33
63
0 20 40 60 80 100Receptivity to investment from other countries Figure 34
How important do you think the investment of companies from other countries is to revitalizing the Venezuelan
economy?
Very important Not at all important
Very/somewhat important Not at all/not very important
100
90 99 97
90 90 88
80
70 75
70
60
50
40
30 38
20 29
9 20
10
6 1 2
0
Total PSUV Anti-regime 0 Unaffiliated 0Chávez Legacy Mixed
Figure 35Chávez personal image negative Figure 36
I would like to measure your feelings towards some people and institutions.
Juan Guaidó 54
36 Favorable
45 Unfavorable
Lorenzo Mendoza
33
Leopoldo López 39
45
Hugo Chávez 33
58
María Corina Machado 30
54
Henrique Capriles 29
52
Nicolás Maduro 26
68
Vladimir Padrino 24
69
Diosdado Cabello 23
72
0 20 40 60 80 100Chávez receives decent rating for performance as president Figure 37
And thinking now of President Hugo Chávez, how would you rate the job he did as president: excellent, good, bad
or very bad?
Excellent Very bad
Excellent/good Very bad/bad
100
100
90
80
70 78
74
60
62
50
50 49
40 45
30 36
33
20 26 27 25
10
0 10
0
Total PSUV Anti-regime UnaffiliatedMajority wants to expunge Chavismo; notable minority wants to incorporate Figure 38
I am going to read you two sentences and I would like you to tell me if you agree with the first sentence or agree
with the second sentence:
Venezuela will never be fully democratic and economically successful until it expunges Chavismo.
For Venezuela to achieve social and political peace, Chavismo must be recognized and incorporated.
Expunge strongly agree Incorporate strongly agree
Expunge strongly/somewhat agree Incorporate strongly/somewhat agree
100
90
80 71
70 78
74
60 64 62 62
50 58
40 46
30 38 23 21
20 29
20 19
10 12
5
0
Total PSUV Anti-regime UnaffiliatedMajority wants to maintain some Chavista policies Figure 39
If there is a change of government: Would you like the next government to maintain all Chávez policies, maintain
some of the Chávez policies or reject all Chávez policies?
Total Bloc
100
90
80 88
30
70
42 60
60
50 56
40
26 30 36
20 27
10 4
10 1 12
0
Maintain all
PSUV Anti-regime Unaffiliated
Maintain some
Exclude all Maintain all Maintain some Exclude allSignificant support for social programs Figure 40
And speaking of the missions, if there is a change of government do you believe that the missions should be
maintained or should they be eliminated?
Total Bloc
100
90 99
80
70
60
39 50 56
51
40
56 41 38
30
20
10
1
0
PSUV Anti-regime Unaffiliated
Maintained Eliminated Maintained EliminatedG B A O RESEARCH + STRATEGY
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