VANECK VIEWPOINT TM GLOBAL ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES - VANECK AUSTRALIA

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VANECK VIEWPOINT TM GLOBAL ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES - VANECK AUSTRALIA
VanEck ViewPoint               TM

Global economic perspectives

April 2020
VanEck ViewPoint™                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2

Market review                                                                                Chart 1: Index returns in the March 2020 quarter

                                                                                                                 Gold
The last quarter seems like something out of a science fiction movie. A virus pandemic,      Australian Fixed Income
                                                                                                Global Fixed Income
an oil crisis, financial market capitulation, toilet paper hoarding and the media’s,
                                                                                                     China Equities
particularly social media, ubiquitous coverage and unrelenting focus on the negative.           Australian Bank Bills
What is missing in the background to this movie is a score to match, it appears                    Japanese Equities
                                                                                                         US Equities
Mozart’s Requiem in D Minor would be fitting. It’s no wonder many people feel like we
                                                                                                     Global Equities
are in the eye of the financial storm where liquidity reigns as king and there is no place         Emerging Markets
to hide but cash. The pandemic has led to a credit crunch where corporate earnings and             European Equities
                                                                                                         UK Equities
cash flow are the centre of the current liquidity predicament.                                       USA Small Caps
                                                                                                   Australian Equities
We live in a highly interconnected and globalised world. The COVID-19 pandemic                 Australian Small Caps
is bringing about an unprecedented economic halt to all productivity. The market                                          30%               20%                   10%                      0%                 10%                   20%                      30%
crash deemed a ‘black swan’ event has not been isolated to equities but also to credit       Source: Bloomberg, 1 January to 27 March 2020, returns in Australian dollars. International Equities is MSCI World ex Australia Index,
and bond markets. The lack of a reliable asset to hedge is unprecedented. In the             Australian Equities is S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index, Australian Fixed Income is Bloomberg AusBond Composite 0+ yrs Index,
                                                                                             Global Fixed Income is Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Hedged AUD Index, Australian Bank Bills is Bloomberg AusBond Bank
early stages of the pandemic, investors piled into government bonds however yields           Bill Index, Emerging Markets is MSCI Emerging Markets Index, Gold is Gold Spot US$/oz, Australian Small Caps is S&P/ASX Small
                                                                                             Ordinaries Index, US Small Caps is Russell 2000 Index, US Equities is S&P 500 Index, UK Equities is FTSE 100 Index, Japanese Equities
climbed erratically and the pursuit to a safe harbour was limited.                           is Nikkei 225 Index, European Equities is MSCI Europe Index, Chine equities is CSI 300 Index.

For the quarter 27 March 2020, gold bullion (in Australian dollar terms) led the charge
as investors sought protection. Ironically in the place where it all started, Chinese
                                                                                             Chart 2: Global and Australian equity sectors March 2020 quarterly performance
equities have outperformed developed markets and offered absolute positive returns.
                                                                                               10%                                                                                                                                  Australia          Global
It was no surprise to see that both in Australia and globally the best performing
sectors were consumer staples and healthcare.                                                    0%

                                                                                               -10%
The current monetary stimulus efforts by central banks – including but not limited to the
                                                                                               -20%
Reserve Bank, ECB, Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve – combined with the
fiscal stimulus by most governments is aiming to thwart the impact to businesses and           -30%

households. These are unchartered waters as we navigate the eye of the financial and           -40%

health storm upon us. We are yet to reach ‘peak pandemic’ and only with time and the           -50%
benefit of hindsight will we be able to assess the true devastation of the destruction of      -60%
wealth and human loss. Investor’s constitutions are being tested like no other time.
                                                                                                          Consumer
                                                                                                       Discretionary

                                                                                                                       Consumer
                                                                                                                         Staples

                                                                                                                                   Energy

                                                                                                                                                  Financials

                                                                                                                                                               Health Care

                                                                                                                                                                             Industrials

                                                                                                                                                                                            Information
                                                                                                                                                                                            Technology

                                                                                                                                                                                                          Materials

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Real Estate

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Tele-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      communications

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Utilities
“Without courage, all other virtues lose their meaning.”                                     Source: Bloomberg, 1 January to 27 March 2020, returns in Australian dollars. Consumer discretionary is MSCI World Consumer
                                                                                             Discretionary Index / S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Discretionary Index, Financials is MSCI World Financials Index / S&P/ASX 200 Financials
                                                                                             Index, Materials is MSCI World Materials Index / S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index, Healthcare is MSCI World Heath care Index / S&P/ASX
– Winston Churchill                                                                          200 Heath care Index, Utilities is MSCI World Utilities Index / S&P/ASX 200 Utilities Index, Property is MSCI World REIT Index / S&P/
                                                                                             ASX 200 AREIT Index, Consumer Staples is MSCI World Consumer Staples Index / S&P/ASX 200 Consumer Staples Index, Information
                                                                                             Technology is MSCI World Information Technology Index / S&P/ASX 200 Information Technology Index, Energy is MSCI World Energy
                                                                                             Index / S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index, Industrials is MSCI World Industrials Index / S&P/ASX 200 Industrials Index, Communications is
                                                                                             MSCI World Telecommunications Index / S&P/ASX 200 Telecommunications Index.
Global economic perspectives, March 2020                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              3

Black Swan time                                                                              Chart 3: Q4 2019 data was pointing the right direction, led by the US
                                                                                             Global PMIs
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            US ISM                                 Eurozone                                     EM                                 China
Back in December, markets were on a tear. Global growth, led by the US, was
                                                                                                                 62                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         60
heading in the right direction. Good news was taken to heart and fully priced, bad
news was discounted or ignored. Hindsight is a marvelous thing, but hubris often                                 60
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            55
precedes payback!                                                                                                58

                                                                                                                 56                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         50
While always cognisant that good times do not last forever, parts of the equity markets

                                                                                              US and Eurozone

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 EM and China
appeared to be overvalued and corporate balance sheets and corporate debt were                                   54
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            45
not in great shape. We’d also expressed concern about global, just-in-time, supply                               52
chains in the then trade-war era and its subsequent pause (remember the trade war?).                             50                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         40

It’s the definition of Black Swans that you don’t see them coming. Two have sailed into                          48
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            35
view: COVID-19 and an oil shock. In some ways they offset, in others they amplify. And                           46
it’s early days to have clarity on how big or how long-lasting their impact will be.                             44                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         30

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Any action central banks take to stimulate a weakened economy is likely to lack impact
in the short term. There are two aspects that make a coronavirus economy extremely
                                                                                             Source: Bloomberg LP. Data as of February 2020.
difficult to stimulate. First, this is a deflationary shock with declines or stoppages in
work, travel, leisure and other forms of economic activity. Second, it is likely to create
shortages due to the interruption of global supply chains, which would normally be           Chart 4: Trade war pause had led to peace dividends everywhere
inflationary. No amount of rate cuts or quantitative easing will have much impact until      US-China trade war and GDP growth
people and businesses are able to resume normal activities.
                                                                                                                 4                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Closed                                      Open

At this stage, markets are caught in a risk unwind, which in turn has unleashed a value                         3.5
at Risk (VAR) storm and a classic liquidity squeeze. How far and how long markets stay
                                                                                                                 3
unhinged will depend on the quality and quantity of the policy response and how
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Closed economies
quickly the world shakes off COVID-19.                                                                          2.5

                                                                                             GDP Growth %
While we remain positive the impact of COVID-19 will be short-lived, talk of a rapid                             2

V shaped recovery by mid-year might be too optimistic. There will be repercussions                              1.5
throughout 2020.
                                                                                                                 1
The slump in oil prices will be a supply boost for energy consumers. Though it will be                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Open economies
                                                                                                                0.5
more problematic for high cost energy producing nations.
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                                                                                             Source: VanEck Research, Bloomberg LP.
VanEck ViewPoint™                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           4

Global policy response                                                                         Chart 5: Where the liquidity is going to come from?
                                                                                               Major central banks’ balance sheets (% world GDP)

                                                                                               22
Central bankers in developed markets (DM) have landed in their nightmare scenario.
                                                                                               20
They have little to no ammunition left. Cutting rates and pumping cash worked for the
                                                                                               18
GFC because it was principally a financial crisis. All monetary policy can achieve this
                                                                                               16
time is to provide cheap liquidity to calm markets. To date this has not helped. Programs                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              PBoC
                                                                                               14
to help companies, especially SMEs, cope with cash flow problems could be crucial.
                                                                                               12

Fiscal policy should be more potent – although not in the short term. Until the pandemic       10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          BoJ
abates, most of what it can do is provide income support for dislocated individuals and         8

companies, rather than bolster fresh spending. It needs to help ensure companies and            6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         ECB
individuals are in a position to contribute to recovery when the time comes – insolvent         4

or chronically indebted companies or households cannot. Governments around the                  2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Fed
OECD world have, by and large, grasped this. While the first-round responses were               0

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out of the GFC playbook (an attempted modest demand boost coupled to market
liquidity measures) the second-round packages have been much larger and aimed at
underpinning incomes and balance sheets. But the problem of magnitude remains.                 Source: VanEck Research, Bloomberg LP. Data as of 28 February 2020.

No one can say with confidence how big a response is required. With credit markets
already strained (more below) and corporate balance sheets loaded, it’s doubtful the           Chart 6: Emerging markets had room to move before COVID-19
liquidity measures proposed will succeed given the likely duration of the crisis. Our          Real policy rates in selected EM and DM, %
best guess is the crisis is likely to hit 2020 global growth by 10 per cent – a massive hit,
concentrated in the second quarter which may be down 30 per cent at an annualised rate.          4                                                                                                                                                                                                      DM                         DM average                                           EM                    EM average

While some governments have announced packages totalling 10 per cent of GDP in                   3
dollar terms, these are, so far, over-announcements adding guarantees and liquidity
facilities to actual dollars (Australia is an example of this). Given the unknowable             2

scale of the hit, chasing valuation levels is a pretty pointless task. Markets will start to     1
heal when the virus is clearly under control; at which point the depth of the growth,
balance sheet and earnings hits will be calculable.                                              0

There appears to be nowhere to hide. Except perhaps emerging markets (EM). While                -1

these are high beta markets and will get hurt by a soaring US dollar in the short term,
                                                                                                -2
they may be better performers in the medium term.
                                                                                                -3
At least EM policy makers have a little more room to move, so like the GFC in which

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              EM average
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Turkey

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Philippines

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Dom Rep

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Brazil

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Colombia

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Uruguay

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         India

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Indonesia

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 S Africa

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Russia

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Mexico

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Ukraine
                                                                                                             Fed

                                                                                                                       Australia

                                                                                                                                               ECB

                                                                                                                                                                       Japan

                                                                                                                                                                                Chile

                                                                                                                                                                                           Hungary

                                                                                                                                                                                                      Poland

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Argentina

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Czech

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Thailand

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Peru

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   China
                                                                                                                                                          DM average
                                                                                                                                    UK

China was able to be a part of the stimulus story, we expect some emerging markets
again to be stronger as a result of this crisis.
                                                                                               Source: VanEck Research, Bloomberg LP. Data as of 19 March 2020. Nominal policy rates adjusted for 12-month ahead
                                                                                               inflation expectations.
Global economic perspectives, March 2020                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        5

China                                                                                        Chart 7: China’s flattening curve
                                                                                             China COVID-19 cases and deaths have moderated
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Total cases                                        Total deaths
China’s regime has one big advantage in dealing with an epidemic: they can issue                                 90,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    10,000
absolute orders to citizens and companies to shut down and isolate.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        9,000
                                                                                                                 80,000

They also have a serious disadvantage: information and social control. Coupled with                              70,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    8,000

obsessive image protection, this means that vital information to avert problems is slow to                       60,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           7,000

arrive. It also means outsiders are likely to be highly sceptical about any “good news”.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Total deaths
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           6,000

                                                                                             Total cases
                                                                                                                 50,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           5,000
Thus, China’s response to COVID-19 was both late – and drastic. Widespread                                       40,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           4,000
economic lockdown means economic output has plummeted, destroying production                                     30,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           3,000
chains across the globe.                                                                                         20,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2,000

As early as the first week of March, 75% of US companies were already experiencing                               10,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    1,000
supply chain disruptions, according to a survey by the Institute of Supply Management                                   0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  0
(ISM). Revenue forecasts for the year had already been downgraded by 5.6% on

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      18 Feb 20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       25 Feb 20

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average. This will be the tip of the iceberg.

As we have mentioned previously, in respect of trade and technology tussles, the             Source: China National Health Commission.
high tide of globalisation has passed. The demonstration of how fragile supply chains
are will exacerbate the recoil. Blamestorming over the origins of the pandemic will
exacerbate antipathy between the US and China.                                               Chart 8: China encouraging credit
                                                                                             China credit aggregates, monthly changes (bn CNY)
According to the China National Health Commission new cases of COVID-19 in                                       2000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          24
China have moderated and the sum of confirmed and suspected cases have trended                                   1800
downwards. Chinese are starting to return to work. The best indicator of a turnaround                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          22
                                                                                                                 1600                                                                                                                                                                                                                  New loans up
in Chinese output will be other countries’ imports from China. This data will only be

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Reserve Requirements, %
                                                                                                                 1400                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          20
available with a considerable lag.

                                                                                             New Loans, bn CNY
                                                                                                                 1200
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               18
The supply shock is greatest in China, with food prices surging (an earlier swine flu                            1000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               16
outbreak exacerbated this). But the Chinese authorities face CPI inflation in excess                              800

of 5%, with interest rates of 1.5% for one-year deposits. Cutting rates risks stoking                             600                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          14
inflation, as well as eroding the real value of household savings. On the other hand,                             400
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Reserve                                     12
already burgeoning fiscal spending will likely have to be directed to supporting                                  200                                                                                                                                                                                                           requirements
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   downs
bloated corporate balance sheets. Nonetheless, we expect China will continue to                                     0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          10
throw policy boosts at the economy. They have little choice and they have room.
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                                                                                             Source: Bloomberg LP.
VanEck ViewPoint™                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           6

United States                                                                                 Chart 9: The Fed’s recent rate cuts are resulting in tighter financial conditions like in 2007–2008
                                                                                              Fed’s cutting cycles and US financial conditions (Chicago Fed’s adjusted index)
Heading into the turn of the year, the US economy was in a Goldilocks spot: growth was                                                 5

                                                                                              -> tightening
moderate, labour markets were firm and wage growth was picking up. For an economy
near full employment, it was about the best that could be hoped for: not too hot
                                                                                                                                       4
(which would lead to rate hikes); or too cold (sluggish growth sliding into recession).

                                                                                              US Adjusted Financial Conditions Index
Unfortunately, the US is now looking at the downside of both black swans. Like                                                         3
elsewhere, COVID-19 is hurting businesses. And, while lower oil prices will help                                                                                                                                                                                                                    1981–1983

household budgets, the US oil sector may suffer.                                                                                                                                                                              1974–1975
                                                                                                                                                              2007–2008
                                                                                                                                       2
The longest economic expansion and bull market in history has come to an end in 2020.                                                                                                                                                                                         1980
The Fed cut rates by 50bps as its first step and this was insufficient to prevent financial
                                                                                                                                       1
conditions tightening. As the severity of the outlook deteriorated, with rates dropped to
the lower bound and the difference between QE and non-QE has now evaporated.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         1989–1992

                                                                                              accommodative
Global economic perspectives, March 2020                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              7

Europe                                                                                       Chart 11: The ECB was maxed out before
                                                                                             ECB balance sheet and Eurozone GDP growth
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Eurozone GDP growth                                             ECB balance sheet
The Eurozone is a weak link in the global economy. Most important, the currency
zone is not optimal – one currency with many fiscal and financial systems underneath                                                   45                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              3.5

makes no sense, as is acknowledged by European officials. Crisis was supposed to
                                                                                                                                       40                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              3
provide the excuse for creating an optimal currency zone, but even the GFC and the

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Eurozone Real GDP Growth, %
                                                                                             ECB Balance Sheet, % GDP
European crises of 2013 didn’t result in fixing this basic structural problem. Until this                                              35                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2.5
is done, there will always be doubts about longer-term sustainability of the monetary
union and its currency, the euro.                                                                                                      30                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2

In the past couple of years, it also became increasingly clear that the Eurozone’s                                                     25                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              1.5
monetary policy setup is largely exhausted in its current configuration. Even though
the ECB had been actively expanding its balance sheet and lowering its policy rate –                                                   20                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              1

which drove the shadow policy rate to mind-boggling -7.28%, the regional real GDP
                                                                                                                                       15                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              0.5
growth no longer responds to the stimulus. The ECB is truly stuck:

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• if it continues to cut rates further, it might irreparably damage the financial sector;
                                                                                             Source: Bloomberg, February 2020.
• if it tightens, this might push many European corporates over the edge.

These are the reasons that might have prompted the German government to
abandon its decade-long “black zero” principle of balanced budgets and approve               Chart 12: Eurozone to ‘restart’ in relatively worse shape
a fiscal stimulus package to minimize the economic damage from the coronavirus.              US dollar and relative macro surprises
The package is on the small side, but its significance and symbolism should not                                                                                                                                                          US-Eurozone Macro Surprise Differential                                                                       Broad US Dollar Index

be underestimated both in terms of a near-term cyclical impact and a longer-term                                                       150                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            100.0

support for growth.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   99.5

We can only hope that at some point there will be a wider acceptance of structural                                                     100                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            99.0

                                                                                             US-Eurozone Macro Surprise Differential
and institutional reforms in the Eurozone and the European Union. There were some                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     98.5

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              US dollar Index
positive country-specific examples in the past few years, but more needs to be done.                                                     50                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           98.0
For now, the region’s structural and institutional rigidity (such as reliance on “national
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      97.5
champions”) remains a major impediment to lifting its potential output beyond
                                                                                                                                            0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         97.0
meager numbers that we see on a regular basis. The problem with being hopeful of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      96.5
further structural reforms is the fact that Europeans never supported currency union.
So asking voters to pay a price during crisis, for something they never supported,                                                      -50                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           96.0

strikes us a politically fraught.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     95.5

                                                                                                                                       -100                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           95.0

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Sept 19
                                                                                                                                                                                                             May 19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Aug 19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Nov 19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Dec 19
                                                                                                                                                   Feb 19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Oct 19
                                                                                                                                                                                          Apr 19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Jun 19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jan 20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jul 19
                                                                                                                                                                       Mar 9

                                                                                             Source: Bloomberg LP.
VanEck ViewPoint™                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            8

Gold                                                                                           Chart 13: Comparing bulls
                                                                                               Current market, 2015 to current
While the sell-off in gold stocks was painful, it is not unusual in the middle of a stock             $1,700

market panic. The last such example was during the 2008 financial crisis. Following
                                                                                                      $1,600
Lehman’s bankruptcy in September that year, gold declined just 10% before trending                    $1,700

higher about a month later. Over the same period in 2008, the NYSE Arca Gold miners                   $1,500
                                                                                                      $1,600
Index fell 48%, but by December 16 it had recovered to its pre-Lehman level in a classic                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       dB
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         ase
                                                                                                      $1,400                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   T         ren
V-shaped recovery. Contrast this with the S&P 500 that didn’t reach a bottom until 6                  $1,500                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          rr   ent

                                                                                               $/oz
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Cu
March 2009 after falling 46%. The S&P 500 didn’t recover its post-Lehman losses until                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          se
                                                                                                      $1,300                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Ba
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       re  nd
                                                                                                      $1,400                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        tT
January 2011. So, while the general stock market was struggling to recover for over two                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               rre
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                n

                                                                                               $/oz
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Cu
years, the gold stock market quickly rebounded and went on to bull market gains.                      $1,200
                                                                                                      $1,300
                                                                                                                                                                                    ase
                                                                                                                                                                rend B
We believe the markets will look back on COVID-19 “black swan” as a buying                            $1,100                                             Early T
                                                                                                      $1,200
opportunity for gold shares. However, whether the worst is behind us is anyone’s guess.                                                                                             ase
                                                                                                      $1,000
                                                                                                                                                                rend B
                                                                                                      $1,100                                             Early T

                                                                                                                Mar 15

                                                                                                                                   Sep 15

                                                                                                                                                     Mar 16

                                                                                                                                                                           Sep 16

                                                                                                                                                                                                    Mar 17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Sep 17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Mar 18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Sep 18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Mar 19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Sept 19 Sept 19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Mar 20

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Sept 20 Sept 20
As markets gyrate, gold investors must not lose sight of the bigger picture. For over
a year, falling real rates have primarily driven the gold price. With many markets in                 $1,000

                                                                                                                Mar 15

                                                                                                                                   Sep 15

                                                                                                                                                     Mar 16

                                                                                                                                                                           Sep 16

                                                                                                                                                                                                    Mar 17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Sep 17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Mar 18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Sep 18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Mar 19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Mar 20
disarray amid the widening outbreak, gold has not responded to the fall in real rates.
Once the volatility subsides, we expect real rates to continue driving gold prices.            Chart 14: Comparing bulls
                                                                                                  $2,200
Gold and gold stocks are in the middle of a secular bull market that started in December       Current market similar to gold’s last secular rally, 2001 to 2012
                                                                                                      $2,000
2015 when gold bottomed out at US$1,050 per ounce. The two gold price charts                          $2,200
                                                                                                      $1,800
highlight the technical similarities between the current bull run and the 2001 – 2011 rally.          $2,000
                                                                                                      $1,600                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Ba
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    se
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    nd
The top chart tracks the price trend of the current bull market. It began with a weakly               $1,800
                                                                                                      $1,400                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Tr
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             e
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 ate
rising trend for several years, then accelerated to a stronger trend in 2019. Likewise, in                                                                                                                                                                                                                           tim                          se

                                                                                               $/oz
                                                                                                      $1,600
                                                                                                      $1,200                                                                                                 We might be here                                                                                    Ul                            Ba
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            nd       ase
the bottom chart an early trend of weakly rising prices broke into a stronger trend in                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   r t Trend B
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Trr
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          e
                                                                                                      $1,400
                                                                                                      $1,000                                                                                                                                                                                                                       t
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   C e u   en
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 a
2005. In the earlier market (bottom chart), the ultimate trend followed the financial crisis                                                                                                                                                                                                                         tim

                                                                                               $/oz
                                                                                                      $1,200
                                                                                                        $800                                                                                                 We might be here                                                                                    Ul
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      se
in 2008. The red circle shows roughly where the current market might be in the larger                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 nd Ba
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     nt Tre
                                                                                                      $1,000
                                                                                                        $600                         Early Trend Base                                                                                                                                                                             Curre
scheme of things, using the 2001 – 2011 market as an analogy.                                           $800
                                                                                                        $400

Fundamentally, each of these markets had different drivers, with the early 2000s                        $600
                                                                                                        $200                         Early Trend Base

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Feb 11 Feb 11
                                                                                                               Feb 01 Feb 01

                                                                                                                               Feb 02 Feb 02

                                                                                                                                               Feb 03 Feb 03

                                                                                                                                                                   Feb 04 Feb 04

                                                                                                                                                                                          Feb 05 Feb 05

                                                                                                                                                                                                             Feb 06 Feb 06

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Feb 07 Feb 07

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Feb 08 Feb 08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Feb 10 Feb 10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Feb 09 Feb 09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Feb 12 Feb 12
                                                                                                        $400
market driven by the fallout from the tech bust and US dollar weakness. The early
                                                                                                        $200
years of the current market were driven by geopolitical risks and Fed activity.
Regardless of specific drivers, both markets rose with increasing risks to the global
financial system where gold was bought as a safe store of wealth.
                                                                                               Source: Bloomberg, VanEck. Data as of 28 February, 2020. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
                                                                                               Chart is for illustrative purposes only.
Global economic perspectives, March 2020                                                                                                                                                                               9

Emerging markets bonds
                                                                                              Chart 15: Emerging markets have less debt than developed markets
                                                                                              Radar chart comparing develop markets and emerging markets
                                                                                                                                     PC/GDP
Some emerging markets look set to acquit themselves during the COVID-19 crisis,                                                       2
                                                                                                                       L/D                           GGD/GDP
as they did during the GFC. And, for the same basic reasons – strong fiscal balance                                                                                                             Solvency

sheets, and central banks focused on maintaining high real interest rates. Emerging                        CE/A
                                                                                                                                      1
                                                                                                                                                                    TXD/GDP
                                                                                                                                                                                                Liquidity

market economies generally have much lower debt stocks, whether private or public.                                                                                                              Structural
                                                                                                                                      0
For example, the biggest emerging market economies have private credit (as a                                                                                                                    Average

percent of GDP) in line with the global mean, whereas the G-10 developed markets                     EDB                                                                 RES/IMP                G10
                                                                                                                                     -1
have private credit almost 2 standard deviations higher than the global average. We                                                                                                             EM-26

start with the example of private credit because these are the markets that remain                                                   -2
unresolved by policymakers at this moment (more on that below).                               GDP/CAP                                                                     RES/M2

Secondly, emerging markets central banks are very orthodox, and maintain high real
interest rates, especially in comparison to those of the developed markets. Earlier in this         FDI/GDP                                                            M2/GDP
ViewPoint, Chart 6 highlighted some of these real policy rates in emerging markets and
developed markets coming into the crisis. Average emerging markets real policy rate
                                                                                                           CAB/GDP                                          XDS/CAX
is 0.84% whereas the average real policy rate in developed markets is -1.17%.
                                                                                                                         FB/GDP                  REV/GDP
Of course, emerging market debt exists in the context of global markets and
economies in disarray, so a necessary element of the rebound we expect in emerging            Source: VanEck, Bloomberg as at end of February.

markets is some end to the current crisis. We see this forthcoming in the coming
weeks/months due to the incredible monetary and fiscal stimulus developed markets
and emerging markets economies are enacting. We expect the US authorities, in                 Chart 16: Emerging market’s lower debt
particular, to enact forms of CE (credit easing) to address the still-unresolved issue of     Domestic credit/GDP Ratio (%)

non-functioning credit markets. We also expect the Fed to extend its US dollar swaps          200
                                                                                                                                           187.2

with key emerging markets central banks, providing dollar liquidity and preventing            180

vicious cycles resulting from US dollar demand. Finally, we’d note that the collapse          160

in oil prices has been conflated with a demand shock in emerging markets, but it is           140                            134.7

really a supply shock. Lower oil prices benefit emerging markets, most of which are oil       120
importers and have consumption baskets with a large energy component, meaning                 100
                                                                                                           86.9                                              85.9
that real interest rates are higher and give policymakers that much more room to ease.         80
                                                                                                                                                                                63.2
                                                                                               60                                                                                          57
                                                                                                                                                                                                              45.5
                                                                                               40

                                                                                               20

                                                                                                0
                                                                                                        Eurozone              UK              US           EM Aaa-A3     EM Baa1-Baa3   EM Ba1-Ba3           EM B1-C

                                                                                              Source: VanEck, Bloomberg as at end of February.
VanEck ViewPoint™                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            10

Australia’s luck runs out                                                                   Chart: 17: RBA action in 2019 had only increased house prices
                                                                                            CoreLogic Home Property Value Index rebased to 100 1/1/2019
Australia has been skating on thin ice for a while now: private domestic demand has                                                                       Melbourne All Dwellings Index                                                        Sydney All Dwellings Index                                                         Adelaide All Dwellings Index
                                                                                                                                                          Brisbane All Dwellings Index                                                         Perth All Dwellings Index                                                          RBA cash target rate
been close to zero, with government spending and exports keeping the economy’s
                                                                                                                     115
head above water.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2.5

                                                                                                                     110
Lacklustre wages growth has led to weak consumer spending, in turn suppressing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2
non-mining investment. After earlier surges, mining investment and housing                                           105

                                                                                            Dwellings Index Values
investment (notably apartments) have been unwinding. Were it to continue, the
                                                                                                                     100                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               1.5
house price pick-up would see housing construction start to rebound.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              RBA (%)
                                                                                                                      95
Employment growth has been a highlight – although led by lower paid sectors, such                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      1
as (government funded) healthcare and services – which also have lower measured                                       90
productivity.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          0.5
                                                                                                                      85
The RBA spent much of 2019 begging the Government to be proactive. The RBA
was aware of how little useful ammunition it had left in its barrel. Indeed, last years’                              80                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               0

                                                                                                                           Jan 17

                                                                                                                                         Feb 17

                                                                                                                                                               Jul 17

                                                                                                                                                                          Sep 17

                                                                                                                                                                                       Nov 17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Mar 18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 May 18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Jul 18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Sep 18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Nov 18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Feb 19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               May 19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Jul 19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Sep 19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Nov 19
interest rate cuts had reflated the capital city house price bubble; while undermining

                                                                                                                                                     May 17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Mar 19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Mar 20
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Feb 18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jan 20
broader confidence and interest incomes.

Like other central banks, the RBA felt fiscal policy was a more potent weapon. With         Source: CoreLogic, RBA, to 24 March 2020.

real interest rates so low; and (in Australia’s case) government debt at very low levels,
there seemed no reason not to put long term productive investments in place.                Chart 18: Miner, education and tourism were major exports
                                                                                            Australia’s top export mix
Unfortunately, time ran out. Australia’s luck has turned. Last year, mining problems in
Brazil boosted Australian exports and national income. This year, bushfires, COVID-19                                40,000
                                                                                                                                                                    Metal ores                                    Coke and Coal                                     LNG, Oil etc                                        Education                                  Other tourism

and the oil shock will do the opposite.
                                                                                                                     35,000

Education and tourism are two of Australia’s biggest exports. Both have been                                         30,000
adversely impacted by bushfires and COVID-19 .
                                                                                                                     25,000
                                                                                            $ billion
As shutdowns spread and employment and business survival gets hit, estimates                                         20,000
of the possible short term cost to GDP are soaring, with 10% declines possible.
                                                                                                                     15,000
Obviously the longer the virus outbreak continues, the greater will be the damage.
                                                                                                                     10,000

                                                                                                                      5,000

                                                                                                                            0
                                                                                                                                Mar 10

                                                                                                                                            Aug 10

                                                                                                                                                      Jan 11

                                                                                                                                                               Jun 11

                                                                                                                                                                        Nov 11

                                                                                                                                                                                   Apr 12

                                                                                                                                                                                                Sep 12

                                                                                                                                                                                                             Feb 13

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Jul 13

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Dec 13

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          May 14

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Oct 14

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Mar 15

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Aug 15

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Jan 16

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jun 16

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Nov 16

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Apr 17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Sep 17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Feb 18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Jul 18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Dec 18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              May 19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Oct 19
                                                                                            Source: ABS.
Global economic perspectives, March 2020                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      11

Fiscal response                                                                              Chart 19: Spreads in corporate bonds have continued to widen despite RBA easing
                                                                                             Australian iTraxx past ten years
The Federal Government has given up on its budget surplus obsession and has now                                      300

made multiple fiscal responses. The first, weighed in at a bit over 1 per cent of GDP
over the forward estimates, with more than half expected in the remainder of this                                    250

fiscal year. The second looks more like 4-5 per cent – although it has been advertised
as 10 per cent. Around half consists of lending, guarantees and RBA liquidity. The                                   200

                                                                                             Credit Spreads (bps)
third is the $130bn JobKeeper and JobSeeker programs.
                                                                                                                     150
In the GFC, Treasury’s memorable advice was “go early, go hard, go households.”
It worked to prop up demand sufficiently that Australia escaped a recession (alone                                   100

among G20 economies). Ten years of demonising that response has left the Coalition
Government in a tricky political position. Nonetheless, they swallowed their pride to                                    50

include a one-off cash splash for pensioners and welfare recipients. The money will
be quickly spent.                                                                                                        0

                                                                                                                               July 09

                                                                                                                                                    July 10

                                                                                                                                                                          July 11

                                                                                                                                                                                                 July 12

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             July 15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         July 13

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     July 14

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     July 16

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           July 17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                July 18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    July 19
The economic response to the packages is a bit harder to read. Investment incentives
are unlikely to be utilised in the near term because uncertainty and falling consumer
                                                                                             Source: Bloomberg to 23 February 2020.
demand will dominate investment business cases until the outlook clears.

Cash boosts to heavily affected regions and industries are more about preserving
                                                                                             Chart 20: Asking for more
businesses from collapse rather than promoting growth. The jury is out on how
                                                                                             Government spending to skyrocket
successful this will be. But it certainly can’t hurt; and while chunks of the economy are
virtually in lockdown there’s little other help available.                                                                                                                                                             Govt spending                                                       Private domestic demand                                                       GDP
                                                                                                                     6

Likewise, wage subsidies for apprentices and PAYG relief are both wait-and-see. With                                 5
the labour market still fairly slack (and likely to deteriorate), business may still let
workers go and concentrate instead on shoring up the bottom line and balance sheets.                                 4

Though the JobKeeper and JobSeeker package which targets this very problem will go                                   3
a long way to prevent that.                                                                  %
                                                                                                                     2
Oil price declines will be a positive for real household incomes, though less positive for
                                                                                                                     1
natural gas and coal markets. Australia is now in a recession. If COVID-19 is brought
under control quickly and companies and jobs make it through without too much                                        0
damage it may be shallow. Any serious damage to corporate solvency or employment
                                                                                                                    -1
will see a deeper and longer downturn, accompanied by a housing downturn and loan
                                                                                                                              Mar 05

                                                                                                                                         Nov 05

                                                                                                                                                  Jul 06

                                                                                                                                                              Mar 07

                                                                                                                                                                       Nov 07

                                                                                                                                                                                    Jul 08

                                                                                                                                                                                             Mar 09

                                                                                                                                                                                                           Nov 09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Jul 10

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Mar 11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Nov 11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Jul 12

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Mar 13

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Nov 13

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jul 14

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Mar 15

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Nov 15

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Jul 16

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Mar 17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Nov 17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Jul 18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Mar 19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Nov 19
performance problems. The Government will do all it can to avoid this scenario.

                                                                                             Source: ABS, RBA.
VanEck ViewPoint™                                                                                                                                                        12

Range of VanEck Vectors Exchange Traded Funds on ASX

Name                                                   ASX code   Index                                                                           Management costs (% p.a.)

Australian Broad Based
Australian Equal Weight ETF                            MVW        MVIS Australia Equal Weight Index                                                                 0.35%
Australian Sector
Australian Banks ETF                                   MVB        MVIS Australia Banks Index                                                                        0.28%

Australian Property ETF                                MVA        MVIS Australia A-REITs Index                                                                      0.35%

Australian Resources ETF                               MVR        MVIS Australia Resources Index                                                                    0.35%
Australian Small and Mid Companies
Small Companies Masters ETF                            MVS        MVIS Small-Cap Dividend Payers Index                                                              0.49%

S&P/ASX MidCap ETF                                     MVE        S&P/ASX MidCap 50 Index                                                                           0.45%
Sustainable Investing
MSCI International Sustainable Equity ETF              ESGI       MSCI World ex Australia ex Fossil Fuel Select SRI and Low Carbon Capped Index                     0.55%

MSCI Australian Sustainable Equity ETF                 GRNV       MSCI Australia IMI Select SRI Screened Index                                                      0.35%
International
ChinaAMC CSI 300 ETF                                   CETF       CSI 300 Index                                                                                     0.60%

China New Economy ETF                                  CNEW       CSI MarketGrader China New Economy Index                                                          0.95%

MSCI Multifactor Emerging Markets Equity ETF           EMKT       MSCI Emerging Markets Diversified Multiple-Factor Index (AUD)                                     0.69%

Morningstar Wide Moat ETF                              MOAT       Morningstar Wide Moat Focus Index™                                                                0.49%

MSCI World ex Australia Quality ETF                    QUAL       MSCI World ex Australia Quality Index                                                             0.40%

MSCI World ex Australia Quality (Hedged) ETF           QHAL       MSCI World ex Australia Quality 100% Hedged to AUD Index                                          0.43%
Global Sector
FTSE Global Infrastructure (Hedged) ETF                IFRA       FTSE Developed Core Infrastructure 50/50 Hedged into AUD Index                                    0.52%

FTSE International Property (Hedged) ETF               REIT       FTSE EPRA Nareit Developed ex Australia Rental Index AUD Hedged                                   0.43%

Gold Miners ETF                                        GDX        NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index                                                                       0.53%
Australian Fixed Income
Australian Corporate Bond Plus ETF                     PLUS       Markit iBoxx AUD Corporates Yield Plus Index                                                      0.32%

Australian Floating Rate ETF                           FLOT       Bloomberg AusBond Credit FRN 0+Yr Index                                                           0.22%

Australian Subordinated Debt ETF                       SUBD       iBoxx AUD Investment Grade Subordinated Debt Index                                                0.29%
Global Income                                                     Performance Benchmark
VanEck Emerging Income Opportunities Active ETF                   50% J.P. Morgan Emerging Market Bond Index Global Diversified Hedged AUD and                      0.95%
                                                       EBND
(Managed Fund)                                                    50% J.P. Morgan Government Bond-Emerging Market Index Global Diversified
Contact us
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situation or needs. Before making an investment decision, you should read the relevant PDS and with the assistance of a financial adviser consider if it is appropriate for your circumstances. PDSs are available at www.vaneck.com.au or by calling
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