TRANSFER REPORT 2020/21 - How Covid changed the transfer market FOOTBALL POWERED BY DATA - Driblab
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TRANSFER REPORT 2020/21 How Covid changed the transfer market FOOTBALL POW E R ED B Y DATA BIG DATA CONSULTING FOR FOOTBALL PROFESSIONALS
Salvador Carmona CEO A : Paseo Imperial 6 - Madrid, Spain W : salvador@driblab.com P : www.driblab.com October 15th, 2020 Dear all, I wrote back in April on the Driblab website that we were not going through easy times and the sad reality is that this pandemic has affected many industries if not all of them. Football, and particularly professional football, is not and will not be inmune to it until a vaccine is discovered and distributed worldwide. The financial crisis across Europe has resulted in a steep drop in the value of footballers as clubs prepared to cut transfer spending this year. Clubs incomes were heavily affected and rolled over to the now 2020-21 season. The top 3 main revenue streams were TV broadcasting, Game tickets and commercial revenues (Sponsors, ads, merchandise etc) and they were all affected one way or another. Right now TV rights are basically the main source of income for the majority of clubs due to the pandemic de-facto killing in-game activation, museum and stadium tours, merchandising offline and many other sources of revenue. With a solid €5bn transfers value in 2019, according to TransferMarkt, the market was on an average increase trend of 10-15% annually between 2016 and 2019 in the top 5 European Leagues. This year, the market has faced a remarkable hit as the number of players signings in the summer market was decreased by -33% compared to the previous year. In terms of value, transfers had a massive decrease of -40% after a remarkable growth of 20% between 2018 and 2019. Also the average value per signing was down -12% compared to the year prior. These numbers show the depths of the transfer’s recession. 2020 will be remembered for many things football-wise, but it will also be the first summer with no -official- signings of over €100m since 2015. This big decline in volume of player movement is going to affect the transfer market for at least the next 12-24 months, and thus should drive clubs to be keen on efficient spending more than ever before. At Driblab we believe that evaluating players through a data analysis lens have a higher success rate than those only made based on instinct and intuition. In 2019, Driblab participated in more than €560m in player transfers and these players had a surplus-value of +29% a year later. As I mentioned in the original letter published in April, this isn't business as usual. This report shows with figures that the market has been disrupted and those who adapt to it the fastest will enjoy a severe competitive advantage. Feel free to reach out to us anytime and be safe during these dark times Salvador Carmona CEO Salvador Carmona driblab.com Paseo Imperial, 6 Driblab salvador@driblab.com Madrid, Spain
F OOTBA L L P OW E RE D B Y DATA BIG DATA CONSULTING FOR FOOTBALL PROFESSIONALS Trans fer Ma rket E voluti on Th e football t ra nsfe r ma rke t showed a r em ar kabl e g r owth in th e l as t de ca d e , esp eci ally i n t he l ast five ye a rs. B oth th e num ber of trans fer s and th e ave ra g e va lu e p er p laye r we re o n a growing incr eas e. U ntil th e COV I D year ar r ive d a n d t h e m arket c hange d . Transfer Market Evolution - Five best leagues I n th i s year’s t ransfe r wind ow, te am s ins ide th e five bes t l eagues bough t 3 3 % l ess p layers than a ye ar ago . A tough r eal ity for footbal l indus tr y th at ca n b e su mmed u p in o ne fac t : 40% dec rea s e with a total buys of 3 . 3 bn € comp a r e d to last year 's 5 . 5 bn € . Last five seasons - Five best leagues Transfers OUT Change in 2019 - 2020 -44% -40% Transfers IN Net Spend -1,746M € -2,172M € -853 M 2016/17 -1,080 M 2017/18 -1,186 M 2018/19 -1,407 M Top Expenses 2019/20 5.4 Billions € -981 M 2020/21 Nº of movements Average fee (in euros) Transfers IN 2019 2020 948 704 11.2 M Signings 9.9 -26% 11.2 Sellings 10.1 2019 2020 Type of transfer (%) Transfers OUT 51% Buys 1,415 895 46.3% 27.8% Free transfers 27.5% -37% 21.2% Loans 26.1% 2019 2020
F OOTB A L L P OW E RE D B Y DATA BIG DATA CONSULTING FOR FOOTBALL PROFESSIONALS D i f fe re n t r e a l i ti e s fo r t h e P r e m i e r Le a g u e a n d th e re s t of b i g l e a g u e s Th e b reakd ow n shows how e ach l eag ue inves ted dur ing th e COV I D tran s fe r wi n dow. Wit h t he Bund e sl iga al m os t at a draw l evel of net s pend in t hi s t ran sfer w i nd ow, Pre mie r Le ague widens its gap with th e r es t of th e l ea g u e s an d L a L i ga st and s o ut a t t he oppos ite end. Ne t s pe n d i n l a s t t ran sfer w i n dow 20 20 /2 1 Pr emier Lea g ue - 9 4 1.5 m i lli o ns € La Li g a +6 4 m i lli o ns € Ser i e A - 53.8 m i lli o ns € Bund esli g a +5.3 m i lli o ns € Ligue 1 - 55.5 m i lli o ns € Tren d s i n n e t s pe n d - L ast five seaso n s - B i g l eag ues ba la nce P o sit ive La L i g a B un de s l i g a Li g u e 1 Serie A Ne gatib e b al ance Premier Le a g u e 16/17 17 / 18 1 8/1 9 1 9/20 2 0/21
P r em i e r L e a g u e DRIBLAB REPORT Top 25 tra n s fe r s P r e mi er L eague to ps t he big l e a gues as PL t he bi ggest spe nd e r in to t a l t rans fer 17 va l ues made wit h 1. 4Bn € of to t a l trans - LL fer s . Makes th e highe st ave rage val ue per p l aye r w i th a s t a gge ring 18. 3M € per each 3 s ig n i n g. SA 3 The En gli sh le ague wa s t he l e a st h it as t hey on ly dr o ppe d 9 % t han l a st year ’s BU s p e ndi n g. E i ght Engl ish c l ubs in th e top 1 1 2 sp en ders i n t he five be st l e a gues and L1 a l s o si gn i n g 1 7 out of the top 25 tra n s fers 1 of t h i s tran sfer wind ow. Ave rag e fee PL non s top s p en di n g - M a n C i ty ca se per buy Wit h t he s igning of R uben D ias , Man City h ave s i g n e d 5 of t he 10 m os t ex pens ive defender s ever ( D ias , C a n ce l o , Lapo rte , Mendy and Stones ) . 1 8.3 R . Días - Performance 19/ 20 M il l . € 8.2 8.1 7.9 5.8 Ma n Cit y s ig ned th e two h ig h es t fee d efe nd e r s of th is s um m er . R uben D ías fro m Be nfica for 68 m € and N ath an A ké fro m B our nem outh for 4 5 m € .
La Li ga DRIBLAB REPORT Spanish football looks for other ways La L i ga recei ve d t he bigge st hit in th e pos t-COV I D trans fer window. Th e Spa nish l e a gue showed a m as s ive dr op in th e pl a- -52% ye r s’ brou gh t in. A f te r a 1. 3bn € wor th of s ig ning s done in 2 019 , incomes t his year sh owe d t he e co no mical ef fect on th e countr y m os t h it by t he pan demic in Euro pe wit h 4 12 m € s ig ning s , t he hi ghes t dr o p a mong the top five leagues, wi t h 6 9% l es s s p en di n g th an -69.1% l a s t year an d 48% l e ss pl aye rs arriv ing to Spain. expenses Champ i o n s L e a gu e c l u b s p er l eag ue - B a l a n ce N e ga t i ve b a l a n ce P o s i t i ve 32 6 2.5 7 2.1 +4 b a l a n ce -3 6 0M € Inc reased i n fl u e n ce o u ts i d e t h e b i g five l ea g ues L a L i ga % of ex p en di t u re i n p laye r s 44% ou t of top five l ea gu es . 41% B ar cel ona m ay be th e m os t r e co g n i - 33.5% 3 2% zabl e exam pl e inves ting in Tr i n ca o and D es t but m or e and m ore c l u b s ar e ex panding th eir f r ontier s l i ke R e a l Val l adol id with S. Weis s m an o r E ibar with D. K adzior . 2017 2018 2019 20 20 C h am pi ons hip P or t ug a l S e g u n da D i v i si on (top tra n sfe rs) P. Estu p i ñ án (16M € ) Trincao ( 3 1M € ) L uis S u árez ( 7M € ) M. Ac u ña ( 10,5 M € ) L. Mil l a ( 5 M € ) Á. Gi m én ez ( 2 . 8M € ) R . Guti ( 5 M € ) Chin a Pedr i ( 5 M € ) E r edi vi s i e B ono ( 4 M € ) S e r g. Dest ( 28M € ) Y. Ca rras co ( 2 7M € ) A . Lozano ( 2 ,5 M € ) Ou s. Idr i ssi ( 1 2M € ) Cr oa t ia B . Gar cía ( 2 ,1M € ) Au s tri a Ivo Grbic ( 7M € ) J. P om bo ( 1,2 M € ) S . Wei ssm an (4M € ) D. K a dzior ( 2 M € ) D. Siovas ( 1M € )
Serie A DRIBLAB REPORT Serie A relies even more on the local market S e r ie A h ad th e highe st numbe r of pl ayer s s ol d with 5 team s in th e top 6 c l u b s of m ost tran sfers o ut (Na po l i, Inte r, S as s uol o, Genoa and Atal anta) . N apol i ha d t he h ig hest n u m b e r of pl aye rs l e aving th e team , s el l ing ten pl ayer s and l oan i n g o u t ot h e r ten n ame s, ma ke s t he te am o n top th e l is t of s el l ing pl ayer s and th e s e co n d in valu es af ter Barce l o na . Th e Itali an L ea gue was t he big com petition with th e m os t inter nal tra n s fe r s h av ing 8 8 si gnings be t we e n Se rie A cl ubs wh ich m ar ks 4 4 . 7% of al l th e s i g n i n g s don e du r i n g the t ransfe r wind ow. Ow n l e a g u e Re s t b i g l e a g u e s Other leagues 24% 29.8% 46.3% 24. 8% 18. 4% 5 6.7% 44. 7% 16.8% 38.6% 28. 6% 22.9% 48.6 % 22. 1% 20. 7% 5 7.1% L o a n + B uy : t h e I t al i an Jo b During t his window Trans fer m ar k t r eg is ter ed onl y 39 pa id l o ans in five big l eag ues : 2 3 of th os e l oans ha ppe ne d in Se r ie A . A dif fer ent ty pe of s ignings for I tal ian cl ubs . F. Chi es a ( 1 0 M € + 4 4 M € ) Á . M orat a ( 1 0M + 35 M ) W. M cK e nnie ( 2M + 1 8 .5 M ) S. Tonal i ( 5M + 3 0 M ) M . K umb ul l a ( 3 M + 30M ) B . M ayoral ( 2M l oa n fee) T. Bakayoko ( 2M l oa n fee)
B u n d es l i g a DRIBLAB REPORT Compound Annual Growth Rate in average sell fee ( 20 16 -20 20 ) This year’s transfe r wind ow wa s t h e fir s t s ince 201 5 that we d o n’t se e a € 100m t ra n sfer du ri ng t he summe r but K ai Ha- P re mi e r L. + 7.9 % ve r t z was th e c l o se st to t his mark with a 80 m € m ove fro m Baye r Leve rk us en to La Li g a -0 .7% C helsea. I n r e cen t years Ge rman fo o t bal l h as con- fir med i tself as t he l e a gue wit h t h e m os t Se ri e A + 6 .4% a t t racti ve young t al e nt o n t he m ar ket. A f te r th e sales of Timo We rne r and K ai H avertz i t se e ms c l e ar t ha t H aal and, Bund e sli g a + 7.7% Sa n ch o, Rey n a , Diaby o r Thuram ar e s om e of t h e most pro mising na me s to go out to Li g ue 1 + 3.6% a b ig clu b i n next t ra nsfe r wind ows . . B i g g e s t U 2 4 t ra n sfer s in 20 2 0 /21 K . H ave r t z 80M€ Arthur 7 2 M€ V. O s h i m e n 7 0M€ R. Di a s 68M€ T. We r n e r 53M€ B es t lea g u e fo r yo ung a tta ck ing ta lent? Ou r beeswa rm gra phic shows al l th eU2 3 for war ds , attack ing m id- fi elder s o r winge r wit h mo re th an 75 0 m inutes pl ayed in l eag ue in th e 2019 /20. A s we se e be l ow both Haver tz and Wer ner wer e am ong th e bes t pl aye rs in xG and x A per 9 0 m inutes .
Li gu e 1 DRIBLAB REPORT 2 0 20 F r ee S i g n i ngs D e s p i te th e eco no mic pro bl e ms in F r ench U 2 0 p l ayer s fo o t ball, th e o nl y majo r l e ague t h at did not en d post- Covi d, t he be t re ma ins cl ear : young a n d ch eap talent . This can be se e n in th e per - 23.1% cen tage of fre e t ra nsfe rs of U2 0 pl ayer s . B u y in g ch eap a nd se l l ing expe ns ive is s til l 13.6 % t h e goal of L i gue 1. Fr e nch footbal l is t he big l e a gue with th e 32.4 % l owest average fe e pe r t ransfe r (6 . 2 m il l ion) , som eth i n g u sua l ye ars a go , but t h e s um m er of 2 020 h as af fe c te d t he inco me s f r om s al es , 33.3% esp e ci ally i n transfe rs to t he Pre mier League. 46.2% Ligue 1 p laye rs s o l d to Pre m i er L eag ue 2019 20 20 L igue 1 p l aye rs to P re mie r L e ague 9 10 Ave rage fe e 31 . 7 M € 15.1M € Th is latest transfe r wind ow has ma r ked a neg ative tr end for Lig ue 1 in ter m s of s a l e s to t h e Pr em i er Le ague . Mo re pl aye r s but a m uch l ower average fee. E ng l is h fo o t b a l l h a s preferred to buy fro m t he Bu ndes l ig a and th is h as been noticed in t he s a l e s p r ices com p ar e d to l ast se a so n. Top 5 Li g u e 1 pl aye rs s o l d to P r em i er L ea g ue 20 1 9 an d 20 20 Y. T i el em a n s T. N dom b el e N. Pe p e 2 ( L EI ) ( TOT ) ( ARS ) 0 W. Saliba I. Sarr 1 ( A RS) ( WAT) 9 18 30 15 24 35 45 60 80 2 18 30 I . Dia l l o M il l ions € 0 E. Mendy W. Fofa n a (SO U) ( CHE) ( L EI ) 2 R a ph inha B. Traore 0 (LEE) ( AV)
F OOTB A L L P OW E RE D B Y DATA BIG DATA CONSULTING FOR FOOTBALL PROFESSIONALS A quick look at efˎ ƺȈ ent s i gn in gs · Prem ier L . GRADY DIANGANA (1998) From West Ham to WBA Transfer fee: 13.5M € Diangana's magniˎcent per - formance last season at the Championship pushed West Brom to try his signing. Now they will again enjoy a player with a great capacity to generate imbalances in the opposite half. He f requently carried the ball into the ˎȶal metres of the ˎljld, in part because of his ability to surpass rivals in one-on-one situations. He averaged 3.37 successful dribbles, 5.49 tou - ches in the box and was able to create many chances for his teammates in open play situations. Furthermore, the goal probability of goal f rom his key passes was high. Telles’ Key Passes Map at Porto in 2019/20 ALEX TELLES (1992) (including set pieces situations) · 0,16 xA per 90 minutes From Porto to Man. United Transfer fee: 15M € United took the opportunity to sign one of the most pro - ductive full-backs in Euro - pean leagues at a low price. Telles is a player who contri - butes both in the defensive phase - with 4.31 ball retrie - vals for 90 minutes - and in the offensive one. In 2019/20 he generated a total of 8.6 expected assists, generating a lot of danger through set piece situations. In addition to that, he has a virtue that is diǹˎƺʍlt to see in this posi - tion: is really strong in aerial disputes (65,1%). Expec ted Assists (xA): A metric that measures the probability of a key pass (a pass that ends with a shot) of becoming a goal. OTHER NAMES KENNY TETE (1995) JOËL VELTMAN (1992) DALE STEPHENS (1989) From O. Lyon to Fulham From Ajax to Brighton From Brighton to Burnley Transfer fee: 3.2M € Transfer fee: 1M € Transfer fee: 1.10M €
F OOTBA L L P OW E RE D B Y DATA BIG DATA CONSULTING FOR FOOTBALL PROFESSIONALS A quick look a t efˎ ƺȈ en t s i gn in gs · L a L i ga MICKAËL MALSA (1995) From Mirandés to Levante Free transfer After conceding its oppo - nents 1.56 expected goals per game in 2019/20, Levan - te should improve defensi - vely this season. And this French ‘stopper’ could solve some problems. Malsa has excelled in the last two sea - sons in recovery tasks, with almost 3 successful tackles and 1,91 interceptions per 90 minutes. In addition to that he’s quite productive in the aerial disputes and does not take risks with the ball, with very few steals suffered. Des - pite he completes 3,78 long- range passes, his percenta - ge of completion is slightly below average. Suárez’s Finishing Map at R. Zaragoza LUIS J. SUÁREZ (1997) (2019/20) · 2.57 shots, 0.35 xG per 90 minutes From Watford to Granada Transfer fee: 7M € Granada surprised by acqui - ring a forward who is expec - ted to make a lot of noise this year. At Zaragoza, Suárez registered 4.94 touches in the opposite box in a league (Segunda Division) in which the average is signiˎƺantly lower and showed an aweso - me accuracy in the ˎȶishing. He got 15 goals with shoo - ting situations that amoun - ted to 12.1 xG, scoring several quite dȈǹˎƺʍlt attempts. In addition to that, he showed ability to dribble or to gene - rate chances for others. *Expec ted Goals: A metric that measures the goal probability of each shot . The probability is determined by fac tors such as the place of the shot , the distance to the target , the angle, the par t of the body with which the shooter contac ts the ball, etc . OTHER NAMES JAWAD EL YAMIQ (1992) JEISON LUCUMÍ (1995) OUSSAMA IDRISSI (1996) From Genoa to Valladolid From Tigres UANL to Elche From AZ Alkmaar to Sevilla Transfer fee: 1.25M € Free transfer Transfer fee: 12M €
F OOTBA L L P OW E RE D B Y DATA BIG DATA CONSULTING FOR FOOTBALL PROFESSIONALS A quick look a t efˎ ƺȈ ent s i gn in gs · Seri e A MILÝĐřĩ¸;(1996) From Red Star to Crotone Transfer fee: 800k € Interesting wager by Croto - ne for a midˎljlder that we consider ready to support an adaptation to Italian footba - ll. As we can see on the radar on the right, Vuliƻ was able to handle a lot of different aspects in his last year in Serbia, being above average of the rest of the midˎljlders within his league in almost every parameter we take into account. He is a player with an excellent ball hand - ling, who makes few mis - takes in passing and who makes many plays progress throughout the games. Besi - des he created 1.88 chances per 90 minutes. Centre-backs with at least 700 minutes played L. MARTÍNEZ QUARTA (1996) at CONMEBOL leagues · 2020 or 19/20 (Argentina) From R. Plate to Fiorentina Transfer fee: €6mill. Fiorentina probably got the centre-back with the most projection in South America. Quarta excells for his solid performance with the ball (he participated in the build up of 0.34 xG per 90 minutes and got numerous ball pro - gressions in 19/20) and espe - cially for her volume of suc - cessful defensive actions. He averages 2.82 interceptions, has shown a high effective - ness rate in tackling actions (81.4%) and has registered an extraordinarily high ˎǼʍre of clearances (5.88). Ball Pro gression: Adva n ce o f 1 0 m et res o r m o re a ch ieve d t h rou g h a pass or a c arr y. OTHER NAMES ADRIEN SILVA (1989) ARDIAN ISMAJLI (1996) JENS PETTER HAUGE (1999) From Leicest. to Sampdoria From Hajduk S. to Spezia From Bodø Glimt to Milan Free transfer Transfer fee: 2.50M € Transfer fee: 5M €
F OOTB A L L P OW E RE D B Y DATA BIG DATA CONSULTING FOR FOOTBALL PROFESSIONALS A quick looȟ ƃ ɽ ljǹ ˎ ƺȈ ljȶ ɽɰ Ȉ Ǽ ȶ Ȉ ȶ Ǽ ɰ ӏ Buȶ ǁljɰ liǼa ANDRÉ SILVA (1995) From Milan to Eintracht F. Transfer fee: 9M € It's really ǁȈǹˎƺʍlt to ˎnd and sign an U-25 forward with metrȈƺɰ like the ones André Silva has. In the radar on the right we ƺƃȶ see that he is a player who ƺombines a great presenƺe in the ˎȶȈɰȃȈng zones with ɧʍȈte good ˎǼʍ - res in the ƺreative phase. He ƺƃȶ retain the ball, ƃɰɰɁƺȈƃte or generate ƺhanƺes for his team-mates. Anyways, what stands Ɂʍɽ most in his per - formanƺe is his ƺold blood in the ǁljƺȈɰȈve metres, sƺoring 13 goals in 2019/20 with shoo- ting ɰȈɽʍƃɽȈɁȶɰ of whiƺh 12.66 xG were estimated. In spite of losing Ante Rebiƻ, it seems a good move Eintraƺht. Full-backs & wing-backs with at least 700 minutes played PASCAL STENZEL (1996) in Bundesliga and Bundesliga 2 · 2019/20 From Freiburg to Sttutgart Transfer fee: 1.30M € After a qʍite prodʍƺtive loan period both for the ƺlʍƹ and the player, Stɽʍtgart signed Stenzel permanently. Althoʍ - gh his impaƺt in the ˎȶal metres of the ˎljld ƺɁʍȢǁ be better, this yɁʍng right-baƺk had very ƺomplete level the last season in 9ʍndesliga 2. He ƺompleted almost 91% of his passes and did it genera - ting that the plays ʍsʍally progressed. In addition to this, his defensive ƺontribʍ - tion was important for Stɽʍt - gart, with 5.28 ball reƺoveries per 90 miȶʍtes of play. Ball Pro gressio n: Ad van ƺe o f 1 0 m et res o r m ore a ƺh i eve d t h roʍ Ǽ ȃ a pass or a ƺ arr y. OTHER NAMES KEVIN STÖGER (1993) DEYOVAISIO ZEEFUIK (1998) MIKE VAN DER HORN (1992) From F. Düsseldorf to Mainz From Groningen to H. Berlin From Swansea to A. Bielefeld Free transfer Transfer fee: 4M € Free transfer
F OOTBA L L P OW E RE D B Y DATA BIG DATA CONSULTING FOR FOOTBALL PROFESSIONALS A quick look a t efˎ ƺȈ en t s i gn in gs · L i gue 1 NAYEF AGUERD (1996) From Dijon to Rennes Transfer fee: 4M € The last season this Moroc - can centre-back was one of the Ligue 1's most proliˎƺ players in individual dispu - tes, with a top success rate in aerial duels (77.2%). His effec - tiveness in tackling actions (76.5%) was also considerably above average. But beyond that, he showed a lot of assu - rance to his team in the deci - sion-making with the ball. In fact, in his ˎrst 500 minutes at Rennes Aguerd is comple - ting 91% of his passes, even though he does not use long-range displacement as much as he did at Dijon. His iȶːʍljnce in the build up of xG could be better. Players with at least 300 minutes played ISAAC LIHADJI (2002) U-17 FIFA World Cup 2019 From O. Marseille to Lille Transfer fee: €300k With an eye to the future, Lille signed one of the most prominent talents f rom the last U-17 World Cup. In addi - tion to ˎȶishing the tourna - ment with 3 goals, Lihadji was one of the most produc - tive dribblers, with over 3.29 successful take ons per 90 minutes. In addition to that, he generated a lot of danger with his key passes, genera - ting 0.26 expected assists, a siǼȶȈˎƺantly higher average than players like Pedri Gon - zalez (SPA), Eugenio Pizzuto (MEX) or Gabriel Verón (BRA). Expec ted Assists (xA): A metric that measures the probability of a key pass (a pass that ends with a shot) of becoming a goal. OTHER NAMES JONATHAN CLAUSS (1992) M. SCHNEIDERLIN (1989) CENK ÖZKAÇAR (2000) From Arminia Biel. to Lens From Everton to Nice From Altay to O. Lyon Transfer fee: 1.20M € Transfer fee: 2.23M € Transfer fee: 1.50M €
Contact Salvador Carmona CEO salvador@driblab.com Cristian Coré Ramiro HEAD OF TECHNOLOGY admin@driblab.com driblab.com ‘This report shows with figures that the market has been disrupted and those who adapt to it the fastest will enjoy a severe competitive advantage’ Driblab Driblab DriblabES Driblab_sports
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