Tourist Vaccine Mandate - An Analysis of the Economic Cost August 2021
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Tourist Vaccine Mandate
An Analysis of the Economic Cost
August 2021
Table of Contents About the Chamber ...................................................................................................................... 2 Background.................................................................................................................................... 3 Turks and Caicos Tourism Market .......................................................................................... 3 Important ................................................................................................................................... 3 U.S. Fully Vaccinated Percentage .............................................................................................. 4 First Problem: High Vaccination Rates in Elderly Skews Data ........................................... 5 Second Problem: Low Vaccination Rates amongst Young People ..................................... 5 Third Problem: Mixed-Vaccination Status Families.............................................................. 5 Analysis .......................................................................................................................................... 6 Further Considerations................................................................................................................. 8 Mixed-Vaccination Status Families and Groups. .................................................................. 8 Increased Difficulty to Meet Entry Requirements. ............................................................... 8 If Tourists Drop 55%, Associated Revenues Drop More than 55% .................................. 8 Evidence Suggests Unvaccinated Persons More Likely to Travel ....................................... 9 Summary ...................................................................................................................................... 10 Get in Touch ................................................................................................................................ 11 Joining the Chamber ............................................................................................................... 11 Contact Us ............................................................................................................................... 11 Visit Us ..................................................................................................................................... 11 Economic Analysis of a Tourist Vaccine Requirement 1
About the Chamber The mission of the Turks and Caicos Chamber of Commerce is to ensure a strong, viable economic climate in the Turks and Caicos Islands. The Chamber provides a platform for members to share knowledge, ideas and concerns while providing opportunities to learn from other businesses, members and thought leaders. The Chamber has an unwavering commitment to represent the interests of our members to the Government and to work together to ensure a strong, healthy and competitive business environment. Our goal is to have a positive and influential impact on businesses as well as their employees. We promote and push for leadership development in organizations through purposeful trainings, coaching and seminars. Our member’s employees will have access to a wide range of personal development tools and a diverse range of Chamber benefits and services. This Chamber is built on the development of the Turks and Caicos Islands through strong leadership. Economic Analysis of a Tourist Vaccine Requirement 2
Background On 12 August 2021, the Government of the Turks and Caicos announced that effective 1 September 2021, all tourists over the age of 16 would be required to be fully-vaccinated to enter the Turks and Caicos. Turks and Caicos Tourism Market According to the Tourist Board 2020 Year End Report, visitors from the United States represented 84% of total arrivals, far and away the most important origin market. Important This document is an economic analysis of potential impacts of a vaccine requirement for tourists to the Turks and Caicos Islands. Public safety health measures is a complicated subject and there is a need to balance both public health with the economy. Policy decisions should not be made entirely on the basis of the economy to the disregard of public health. Likewise, if policy decisions were purely based on public health, the borders would be closed. The purpose of this document is to simply outline what are possible economic outcomes of a vaccine requirement for tourists to the Turks and Caicos. Economic Analysis of a Tourist Vaccine Requirement 3
U.S. Fully Vaccinated Percentage
The first important factor is to determine what proportion of the potential tourism market is
fully-vaccinated. In the U.S., 62% of adults over 18 are fully vaccinated.
Figure 1. New York Times data as at 16 August 2021.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html
Figure 2. Vaccination rates by age breakdown via Mayo Clinic.
https://www.mayoclinic.org/coronavirus-covid-19/vaccine-tracker
Economic Analysis of a Tourist Vaccine Requirement 4First Problem: High Vaccination Rates in Elderly Skews Data
82% of persons 65-74 are vaccinated, along with 78% of persons 75+. Persons over 65 represent
more than 23% of the total US population, and unfortunately these persons are traveling at vastly
lower rates than younger persons. This is due to the increased risk of COVID-19 in elderly persons,
and as such they have postponed trips. 1
Only 50% of persons 25-39, for example, are fully-vaccinated in the United States.
Second Problem: Low Vaccination Rates amongst Young People
Turks and Caicos is a popular destinations for families (the largest resorts is a Beaches Turks and
Caicos All-Inclusive Resort).
Unfortunately, as of 13 August 2021, only 42.1% of persons 16-17 are fully-vaccinated.2 The data
is not much better for those 18-24, where it is only 45.2%.
Thus, the majority of persons traveling with children who are 16-24 will be unable to vacation in
the Turks and Caicos.
Third Problem: Mixed-Vaccination Status Families
This is difficult to quantify and reliable statistics cannot be sourced.
In a nutshell, the issue is that because all persons in a travel group must be vaccinated, simply
having one person who can’t means that the entire group is likely to cancel.
Essentially, it’s not accurate to simply look at the overall vaccination rate of adults 18+, which is
62%, and assume that 62% of US persons are eligible to visit. Due to the fact that some will have
one person in their group/family who is not fully-vaccinated, the 62% figure is very much a ‘best
case’ scenario, and real-world statics will depress this eligible number of travelers.
1
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/stories/senior-citizens-day.html
2
https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/COVID-19-Vaccination-and-Case-Trends-by-Age-Group-/gxj9-t96f
Economic Analysis of a Tourist Vaccine Requirement 5Analysis
The Government has projected, in their 2021-2022 budget, that air arrivals are estimated to be
89.4% of 2019 figures. 3
Using this data, a projection of tourism arrivals (before the vaccine requirement was announced),
is as follows.
September October November December TOTALS
2019 Actual 13442 24182 40996 51160 129,780
2021 Projection 12017 21619 36650 45737 116,023
Unfortunately, the 2021 projection above was before the vaccine announcement.
Using CDC data, 55% of persons 18-64 are fully-vaccinated. 4 Persons 65 and above are being
excluded as this demographic is not displaying an intent to travel at this time.
September October November December TOTALS
2019 Actual 13,442 24,182 40,996 51,160 129,780
2021 REVISED (55%) 6,609 11,890 20,158 25,155 63,813
TOURISTS LOST 5,408 9,729 16,493 20,582 52,210
The Tourist Board’s 2018 Tourism Survey stated that the average tourist spends $1,838 (adjusted
for inflation).
September October November December TOTALS
2019 Actual 13,442 24,182 40,996 51,160 129,780
2021 REVISED (55%) 6,609 11,890 20,158 25,155 63,813
TOURISTS LOST 5,408 9,729 16,493 20,582 52,210
VALUE LOST $9,939,260 $17,881,074 $30,313,215 $37,829,072 $95,962,623
3
https://online.fliphtml5.com/pejq/rvvi/#p=12
4
https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/COVID-19-Vaccination-and-Case-Trends-by-Age-Group-/gxj9-t96f
Economic Analysis of a Tourist Vaccine Requirement 6The net effect, based on the analysis above, is a loss for the four months of September, October,
November and December of $96 million to the economy of the Turks and Caicos.
If this policy was in effect for simply the four months outline above, the drop in GDP would be
8% as a result of this policy. 5
5
GDP estimated at 1.197 billion USD in 2019 figures.
Economic Analysis of a Tourist Vaccine Requirement 7Further Considerations In the analysis, 55% was used as an analysis and basis for the calculation, based on the number of persons 18-64 in the United States who are fully-vaccinated. There are a variety of considerations which could make this estimate too optimistic, and suggest that the real number of eligible tourists is lower than 55%. Mixed-Vaccination Status Families and Groups. As mentioned previously, due to the fact that all persons must be vaccinated, if there is 1 person in a family of 5 who doesn’t meet the requirement, the entire group is unable to visit. This will depress the 55% stat, but the extent is unknown. Increased Difficulty to Meet Entry Requirements. Turks and Caicos had previously been one of the easiest countries to visit in the Caribbean. The vaccine requirement has resulted in Turks and Caicos becoming one of the most difficult to visit. For example, Turks and Caicos will be one of four countries in the Caribbean with a vaccine mandate, and the only one of these to require travel and air ambulance insurance. Simply put, the question is, if the requirements to enter Turks and Caicos have become too onerous, will persons choose another destination? If Tourists Drop 55%, Associated Revenues Drop More than 55% Simple supply and demand dictates that a 55% drop in tourists mean more than a 55% drop in tourism tax and excursion prices. Hotels will compete with each other, lowering prices, along with tour providers and tourism sector businesses. That means that the projected tourism tax will fall by more than the 55% drop in tourists. Economic Analysis of a Tourist Vaccine Requirement 8
Evidence Suggests Unvaccinated Persons More Likely to Travel
In a 26 May 2021 survey by DriveResearch, unvaccinated respondents were 3 times more likely
to believe that it is fine to travel and feel safe traveling right now. 6
Many other surveys indicate the same trend. A Forbes article from 12 May 2021 revealed that
32% of unvaccinated persons felt comfortable traveling abroad, compared to only 15% of
vaccinated persons. 7
Furthermore, in a June 2021 TripAdvisor survey, vaccinated persons listed ‘city destination’ as
their top choice on where to travel. For unvaccinated persons, ‘beach destinations’ was the
number one choice.
This possible trend was not used in the analysis, but it may further depress the 55% figure used.
Figure 3. Truncated poll results showing unvaccinated (yellow) vs vaccinated (blue) willingness
for various activities from the Morning Consult ‘Return to Normal’ poll. 8
6
https://www.driveresearch.com/market-research-company-blog/survey-changing-traveler-behaviors-amidst-
vaccine-rollout/
7
https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2021/05/12/travel-interest-surging-as-states-reopen---but-
unvaccinated-americans-are-more-likely-to-be-getting-out-poll-finds/?sh=4b7feba95e71
8
https://morningconsult.com/2021/05/12/vaccinated-unvaccinated-americans-comfort-with-activities/
Economic Analysis of a Tourist Vaccine Requirement 9Summary
A vaccine requirement for tourists drastically reduces the number of persons eligible to visit the
Turks and Caicos. Our estimates are that only about 55% of potential tourists will be eligible to
visit.
Unfortunately, vaccine rollout in the US is slowing. In the last 30 days, the number of fully-
vaccinated persons (as a percentage of overall US population), only rose from 49% to 51% 9.
The estimated impact of this policy is that there will be 52,210 fewer tourists for the September-
December 2021 tourism period.
The overall economic impact is estimated to be $96 million.
9
Our World in Data, accessed 16 August 2021.
Economic Analysis of a Tourist Vaccine Requirement 10Get in Touch
We encourage feedback, requests and comments of any nature, whether on this publication or
in general.
Joining the Chamber
For businesses interesting in joining, please reach out and our member associate will provide
details on membership.
Contact Us
Via Email: contact@chamber.tc
Visit Us
Our office is centrally located at:
Unit B203
Graceway House
Leeward Highway
Providenciales
Turks and Caicos Islands
Economic Analysis of a Tourist Vaccine Requirement 11Copyright © 2021 Turks and Caicos Chamber of Commerce Economic Analysis of a Tourist Vaccine Requirement 12
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