Three Ideas to Improve the International Role of the ECB - DGAP Policy Brief

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German Council on Foreign Relations

                                                                                                                 No. 04
                                                                                                          February 2021

                                 COMMENTARY

                                      Three Ideas
                                      to Improve the
                                      International Role
                                      of the ECB
                                      The ECB has been forced – in part by         cess to euro swap and repo facilities to
                                      the COVID-19 crisis – to review its bi-      non-euro area central banks – thereby
                                      lateral arrangements with foreign cen-       helping the ECB to stabilize prices and
                                      tral banks. But the recent changes made      mitigate financial stability risks do-
                                      by the ECB fall short of the Europe-         mestically and abroad.
                                      an Commission’s ambitions to boost
Shahin Vallée
Head, Geo-Economics                   the international role of the euro. We       During the 2008 global financial cri-
Program, DGAP                         suggest the ECB should put in place          sis and its aftermath, the ECB had to
                                      an alternative three-pillar frame-           make hard choices about its FX swap
                                      work to improve the international role       policy and adopted a very conservative
                                      of the ECB and cement its pivotal role       line, precisely when it was enjoying the
                                      in the international financial system.       generous support of the Federal Re-
                                                                                   serve’s own US dollar liquidity lines.
                                      In a new paper released on January 19,       Indeed, between 2009 and 2011, the
                                      the European Commission (EC) reit-           ECB refused to extend swap lines to
                                      erated its commitment to strengthen          Hungary and Poland when they were
                                      the international role of the euro. This     in a financial crisis and in need of euro
Daniela Gabor                         is part of a long-standing plan that has     liquidity, or to Latvia when the Swiss
Professor of Economics
and Macro-Finance,                    been followed by little action so far. Al-   National Bank and the Swedish Riks-
UWE Bristol                           though the report is broad, it does not      bank respectively rose to the challenge
                                      mention actions to be taken by the           of effectively offering support when
                                      ECB – despite the fact that its role as      the ECB should have also been there to
                                      a global lender of last resort is becom-     help.
                                      ing ever more important to the inter-
                                      national financial system.                   The new changes introduced by the
                                                                                   ECB due to the COVID-19 pandem-
                                      Since the economic shock of the              ic do not go far enough in creating the
                                      COVID-19 pandemic, the ECB has               framework to provide euro liquidity to
                                      overhauled its euro liquidity provision      those who may need it. The ECB’s bi-
                                      to foreign non-euro central banks. The       lateral lending framework – via swaps
                                      overhaul has involved reviewing exist-       and repos – continues to create double
                                      ing arrangements and extending a c -         standards between EU member states
No. 04 | February 2021                                                                                                            2

            COMMENTARY                                                     Three Ideas to Improve the International Role of the ECB

THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK’S FRAMEWORK
OF SWAP AND REPO LINES

                                                                                   collateral                    National
                                                                                   EUR                           Bank of
                                                                                                                 Serbia
                                                      Danish
         Bank of             Bank of                  National
         Canada              Japan                    Bank                                                       National
                                                                                                                 Bank of
                                                      Bulgarian                                                  Albania
                                                      National
  Federal       S TA N D I N G                        Bank                                                       Repo lines
  Reserve         G LO B A L
             F X S WA P L I N E
                                       ECB
                                                      Swedish
                                                                                    ECB                          granted under
                                                                                                                 EUREP
                                                      Riksbank
                                                                                                                 Hungarian
                            Swiss                     Croatian                                                   National
          Bank of           National                  National                                                   Bank
          England           Bank                      Bank
                                                      ………                                                        National
                                                                                                                 Bank of
                                                                                                                 Romania

S WA P L I N E S                                                                  REPO LINES
ECB provides euro against currencies accepted                                     ECB provides euro against adequate euro-
by the ECB for swap line operations                                               dominated collateral accepted by the ECB

Source: ECB | own illustration

and lacks accountability and trans-           3. A discretionary emergency assis-          a corresponding Bulgarian lev loan to
parency. The ECB falls short of being         tance facility to provide financial assis-   the ECB. These FX swaps ensure the
a lender of last resort for financial sys-    tance to foreign countries undergoing        flow of hard currency/euro liquidity
tems that are dependent on euro li-           a balance of payment crisis.                 where and when it is needed and pre-
quidity. As a result, the ECB is failing to                                                vent financial instability from tempo-
reduce financial stability risks and to                                                    rary liquidity shortages from setting in.
promote the international role of the         DOUBLE STANDARDS
euro as much as it should.                    FOR EU MEMBER STATES                         In contrast, repos are more onerous
                                                                                           for the borrowing central banks for a
In this paper, we first review in de-         In the hierarchy of instruments avail-       variety of reasons. Sticking with our
tail the shortcomings of the ECB’s new        able to global lenders of last resort,       example, the Bulgarian central bank
framework, which was announced on             FX swaps rank higher than repos. FX          needs to have euro-denominated se-
August 19, 2020. We then outline a            swaps create stability by protecting         curities – rather than its own domes-
more rigorous and systematic global           against volatility. In an FX swap, two       tic currency – to post as collateral to
Lender of Last Resort (LoLR) function         countries’ central banks “lend” each         the ECB to receive euro liquidity in re-
based on three pillars:                       other some of their own currency.            turn. Because securities are consid-
                                                                                           ered more risky than cash, the repo
1. A global and European network of           Let’s take a swap between Bulgaria           loan may also be subject to “haircuts”
FX swap lines to ensure appropriate           and the ECB as an example. The Bul-          on collateral. To account for variation
distribution of euros and other hard          garian central bank has a euro depos-        in the market value of these securities,
currencies across the EU and the in-          it and that account gets credited with       haircuts may be complemented by a
ternational financial system;                 the agreed sum in euros, at an agreed        daily variation margin. Repo collater-
                                              exchange rate and for an agreed peri-        al is more difficult to service because,
2. A structural repo facility for foreign     od. Bulgaria pays interest on this loan      when the price of collateral falls, the
central banks to ensure the global li-        of currency back to the ECB. But in re-      Bulgarian central bank needs to send
quidity of euro area collateral; and          turn for euro liquidity it also creates
No. 04 | February 2021                                                                                                                 3

          COMMENTARY                                                       Three Ideas to Improve the International Role of the ECB

the ECB additional collateral to make      between central banks. Repos are still             1. An emergency facility to deliver euro
up the value of the swap again.            the preferred method by which the                  liquidity in times of distress and help
                                           Central Bank offers liquidity to com-              liquify the foreign exchange reserves
The ECB resorts to double standards        mercial banks, adjusting the eligible              of central banks at Europe’s periphery.
in its treatment of EU member states       collateral and the haircut proportional-
by offering liquidity on different terms   ly to the perceived counter-party risk,            2. A structural facility to improve the
to some nations. These double stan-        the quality of the collateral, and the             flow of euro collateral and offer both
dards can be difficult to understand.      daily variation in the price of collateral.        repo and reverse repo windows to for-
For example, why would the National                                                           eign central banks outside of Europe
Bank of Hungary enjoy a repo line and      FX swaps are less onerous for count-               to encourage the use of euro assets in
not the National Bank of Poland? Why       er-party central banks because there is            their reserves as a liquid store of value.
would the Danish National Bank enjoy       an established exchange rate between
a full swap line rather than a mere re-    currencies. That means collater-                   The ECB should instead consider a
po line when Denmark is not part of        al doesn’t need a haircut to match the             simpler framework with three distinct
ERM2 – the managed exchange rate           value of the liquidity received. Swaps             facilities, detailed below:
mechanism used in the transition pe-       are, in principle, reserved for central
riod before a country joins the single     banks whose currency is more trust-                1. A Global and European FX Swap
currency – and does not intend to join     ed or stable. However, this judgement              Line Network
the currency union? Meanwhile, Ro-         of trust establishes a political distinc-          This would put in place a permanent
mania – part of ERM2 and a country         tion between trusted official peers and            and unlimited swap line facility with
that is openly committed to entering       less trusted ones. This process of mak-            the G10 and all the EU’s central banks,
the eurozone – only enjoys a repo ar-      ing distinctions is questionable within            without discrimination. The heart of
rangement. There are numerous such         the EU and for countries on the EU ac-             this agreement would essentially be
examples of double standards. But          cession track.                                     the current permanent core swap line
there seems to be a political ratio-                                                          network (Federal Reserve, ECB, Bank of
nale beyond financial stability consid-    The creation of the Eurosystem repo                England (BoE), Bank of Canada (BoC),
erations for these distinctions. This      facility for central banks (EUREP), fol-           Bank of Japan (BoJ)).
could explain why Croatia (an EU           lows a similar move that was made by
member state) would enjoy a swap line      the US Federal Reserve, and includes               In practice, this would see the ECB
while Serbia and Albania only have a       two important functions that should                play a nodal role in distributing US
repo line. But then why leave out Mon-     be disentangled:                                   dollars and euros to all European cen-
tenegro, which is on the EU accession                                                         tral banks, ensuring a stable flow of
track and has unilaterally adopted the
euro as its currency?
                                           A NEW PERMANENT SWAP NETWORK
Does the ECB introduce a political
judgement on the various countries’
accession prospects? Or is it that the
ECB does not want to sanction unilat-                                                                    Danish
                                                              Bank of            Bank of                 National
eral adoption of its currency? Wheth-                         Canada             Japan                   Bank
er it is one or the other, it should be
spelled out with more clarity to justi-      • Bank of                                                   Bulgarian
                                                                                                         National        PERMANENT
                                             Mexico
fy the policy.                               • Bank
                                                         Federal      S TA N D I N G
                                                                                            ECB          Bank            S WA P L I N E S
                                                         Reserve        G LO B A L                                       TO A L L
                                             of Korea              F X S WA P L I N E                                    EU COUNTRIES
                                             •…                                                          Swedish
                                                                                                         Riksbank
THE IMPORTANCE OF                                                                Swiss                   Croatian
REPO LINES FOR FOR-                                            Bank of           National                National
EIGN CENTRAL BANKS                                             England           Bank                    Bank
                                                                                                         ………

Because swaps rank higher than re-                                                                   T E M P O R A R Y S WA P
pos in the hierarchy of financial in-                                                       PBoC
                                                                                                     LINE FOR TRADE
                                                                                                     AND INVESTMENT
struments, it is usually the instrument                                                              SETTLEMENT
of choice for liquidity transactions       Source: ECB | own illustration
No. 04 | February 2021                                                                                                          4

          COMMENTARY                                                    Three Ideas to Improve the International Role of the ECB

USD and EUR across the European fi-         A DISCRETIONARY SWAP WINDOW FOR
nancial system.
                                            BALANCE OF PAYMENT ASSISTANCE
The ECB would continue to have a bi-
lateral swap line with the People’s Bank
of China (PBoC) designed to facilitate
trade and investment flows rather than
financial stability. This would both fa-                      IMF program
cilitate the internationalization of the
RMB, which serves the purpose of a                            EU’s Macrofinancial
                                                              Assistance
more multipolar, international mon-
etary system and expand the use of
the euro in China while promoting a
more multipolar international mone-
tary system.
                                                                               Banque
2. A Structural Repo and Reverse                        ECB                    du Liban
Repo Facility for Foreign Central
Banks
The ECB should offer temporary and                                                                      Source: ECB |
limited repo lines to selected count-                                                                   own illustration
er-parties for the purpose of facilitat-
ing trade and investment settlement.
This would be particularly useful, for      and the EU Macro Financial Assistance         quidity risks in euros across the world
instance, for countries that trade with     Programme. While it may sound like            – and to expand the role of the euro
Europe but in which the banking sys-        this facility would duplicate the IMF’s       among foreign central banks.
tem does not facilitate international       work, in the 1980s and 1990s it was
commerce (think of African coun-            rather common for IMF programs to             The ECB has an opportunity to ex-
tries with weak correspondent bank-         be complemented by Federal Reserve            pand its pivotal place in the interna-
ing links); or for countries with highly    swap arrangements. When these be-             tional monetary and financial system
euro-ized banking systems that are          came harder to come by, G10 cen-              as one of the few central banks that is
not in the EU, such as Serbia, Turkey,      tral banks were called on to step in via      connected to both the People’s Bank
or Lebanon.                                 the Bank for International Settlements        of China (PBoC) and to the US Fed-
                                            (BIS). This happened in 1995 during           eral Reserve, but, in order to do so, it
Opening a standing repo and reverse         Mexico’s peso crisis, which led to a $50      must accept further operational and
repo line to all foreign central banks      billion bailout package. An emergency         counter-party risks. These are inev-
(with varying haircuts) would offer         assistance facility could be very use-        itable if the euro is to rise as a lead-
advanced custody and payment ser-           ful today, for example to address Leba-       ing international reserve currency and
vices in euros to all central banks. But    non’s financial cum banking crisis.           help reshape the international mone-
it would also ensure the highest pos-                                                     tary order.
sible level of international euro collat-
eral fluidity, which is important for the   CONCLUSION
conduct of the ECB’s domestic policy
and the control of its short-term se-       The European Union wants to pro-
cured funding rates.                        mote the international role of the euro
                                            in order to reap the benefits of issu-
3. A Discretionary Emergency Assis-         ing a true international reserve cur-
tance Facility                              rency and provide a more stable and
The ECB should also consider creat-         multipolar international monetary or-
ing a standing FX swap and/or repo          der, but the ECB’s framework for swap
facility that can be accessed in cases      and repo lines is not up to the task. It
of distinct country-level distress – in     should be revised profoundly to pro-
particular alongside existing financial     vide a simpler and more systematic
assistance programs such as the IMF         set of instruments to limit potential li-
No. 04 | February 2021                                                                     5

          COMMENTARY     Three Ideas to Improve the International Role of the ECB

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