THE RETAIL WORLD 2020 - ISSUE 03 RETAILING IN A TIME OF CRISIS - A WORLD RETAIL CONGRESS PUBLICATION - Retail & Leisure International
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CONTENT INTRODUCTION ANALYSIS Leap the Ravine . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Amazon rises to the challenge. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 I n the week we publish How will consumer behaviour be changed by these Emerging from the shadows . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 our third report on experiences and for how long? And as more stores open Innovation Spotlight: China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Retailing in a Time of but only if they adhere to stringent safety measures, what Crisis, we are seeing will this mean longer-term for the role and functionality of an increasing number of bricks-and-mortar retailing? How can retailers fast-forward CONSUMER TRENDS images from Hong Kong their ecommerce capabilities to meet the massive increase How the pandemic is changing consumer behaviour . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 to Spain, Italy, Germany in online shopping? and Denmark of people The Post-Corona Consumer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 These are key questions already becoming the focus for taking to the streets and retail executives and this report includes further analysis parks as governments ease and ideas from a range of specialist industry and consumer FUTURE TRENDS lockdowns. Populations the world over are desperate to experts and futurologists. This issue also includes, for the Imagining a new retail future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 first time, research findings from EY’s recently launched return to some sense of normality. Governments, too, are Future Consumer Index, which is designed to gauge the desperate to re-start their economies. mood of consumers around the world. ANALYSIS As you can read first-hand from the retailers and industry The strongest retail brands are getting stronger. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Taken together, this report aims to help retailers with experts in their reports in issue three, this is just the Retail Innovations Responding to Coronavirus. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 insight into how other markets and businesses are tentative start of the second phase in many governments’ meeting the challenge of this global crisis, provide moves to contain and beat COVID-19, and to avoid a second wave of the virus that would return us to lockdowns as provocative and insightful ideas and thinking, but also COUNTRIES share the inspiration and innovation that is already happened in Singapore. emerging from retailers around the world. ASIA PACIFIC What our reports in this issue also show is that there is Health And Beauty Starts The Bounce Back . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 unlikely to be a return to former normality. Consumers, ASIA even in those countries moving out of lockdown, remain China: The Technology Behind the Everyday Magic of Logistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 nervous about their safety and very cautious given household incomes have been decimated if they are IAN MCGARRIGLE India: Calls For Government To Now Turn Attention To Supporting Retail . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 among the millions who have lost their jobs or been CHAIRMAN | WORLD RETAIL CONGRESS MIDDLE EAST temporarily furloughed. IAN.MCGARRIGLE@WORLDRETAILCONGRESS.COM Saudi Arabia: It’s Not Business As Usual, But Retail Is Holding Up . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 United Arab Emirates: Adaptability In The Face Of Change: COVID-19 And Crisis Preparedness In The Middle East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 EUROPE Europe | EuroCommerce: Europe-Wide Action Is Needed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 Denmark: The Debate Is Moving On To How To Prevent Businesses From Going Under . . . 42 Watch here for video interviews with Bart Denolf, CEO of Sacoor Brothers Franchise on how their international France: Drive-Thru Acceleration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 business has had to react to the crisis in South East Asia and the Middle East. And watch Deloitte’s Head of Germany: Shoppers In Crisis Mode Too, So Demand Stays Low Amid Re-Openings . . . . . . 46 Global Economics, Dr Ira Kalish in conversation with David Roth, CEO of WPP The Stores EMEA and Asia. Italy: A Slow Release Under Few Unambiguous Rules Is The Key To Faster Recovery . . . . 48 Russia: Omnichannel Thriving But Virus Strikes Hard At Traditional Retail. . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 Spain | El Corte Inglés: Taking The First Steps To Post-Lockdown . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 Spain | Tendam: Retailers Must Provide Shoppers With Peace Of Mind . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 United Kingdom: How Tesco Ripped Up The Rulebook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 OCEANIA Australia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 LATIN AMERICA Latin America: 14 Million Jobs Gone In Pandemic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 Brazil: Brazilian consumers discover ecommerce . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 Interview with Bart Denolf, Sacoor Brothers Interview with David Roth, CEO The Store WPP EMEA April 2020 & Asia and Ira Kalish, Chief Global Economist, Deloitte NORTH AMERICA United States | NRF: Courage Of First Economic Responders Helps Provide Vital Knowledge For Industry Moving Forward . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 2 | Issue 03 Issue 03 | 3
ANALYSIS The COVID-19 outbreak has led to unprecedented disruption for non-essential retail. Stores have been closed as lockdowns were put in place to keep people safe. Categories have declined 30-75% as a shift to ecommerce has not sufficiently compensated for lost in-store sales. Retailers have relied on tax, wage, and rent relief to stay afloat. Many now see signs of hope as countries ease lockdowns and move into the next phase of the crisis. But, the worst is yet to come. LEAP THE RAVINE W hen stores re-open, retailers will once again But there is a chance to leap the ravine and come out a have to pay for labour and rent. However, winner. A small window of opportunity exists to act whilst sales are unlikely to resemble pre-crisis customers are switching, competitors are off-balance, and levels as a global recession rages, and government support is in place. With so much at stake, consumer demand and purchasing power remain low. non-essential retailers need to make fast, bold moves Chris Biggs and Brian Harris, BCG Managing Directors & Senior Partners, offer their perspective about Additionally, the shift to ecommerce, which is costlier to across three priorities: what the future may look like and how non-essential retailers should respond to come out on top fulfil, will lead to falling margins and rising costs. These • Reset costs by using a data-driven approach that changes will open up a ravine in performance on the path leaves no stone unturned across every part of to the new normal. Non-essential retailers will face five your business. Consider cutting the tail, and even years of change in five months and must quickly respond some of the middle, of your store estate if it is not to the challenges that are emerging: aligned to the future. Be willing to make previously • Markets will consolidate, with many sub-sectors ‘unmakeable’ moves. likely to become a triumvirate of 1-2 traditional • Get back to growth by utilising a smart store players, at-scale marketplaces, and niche players re-opening plan that aligns with the expected (including pureplays and direct to consumer). medium-term channel mix. Win customers through • Essential retailers and marketplaces will disruptively ecommerce/omnichannel excellence that rivals the steal share as they remain open throughout the crisis pureplays. Kick-start demand by understanding and build relationships in non-essential categories, shifting customer trends and shaping them through such as beauty and homewares. personalised digital marketing. • Omnichannel will grow at the expense of physical • Reshape organisations and capabilities to the new retail as a large number of stores permanently close. normal by moving resources to ecommerce and This will challenge retailer economics as ecommerce advanced analytics, retaining agility, and redefining cannibalises more profitable in-store sales. your competitive position through M&A. THREE PRIORITIES TO LEAP THE RAVINE • Customer communication will move to digital marketing as retailers lose the ability to use stores to Players who take strong actions early will outperform post- crisis. The relative return on investment from a major retail drive traffic. More innovative, personalised marketing transformation is 50% higher when started pre-emptively will be required to cut through the overwhelming in a downturn. Past crises have shown that there are RESET COSTS RESTRUCTURE EVERY PART OF YOUR COST BASE number of messages consumers receive each day. few winners and many losers. A mere 14% of companies Leave no stone unturned increase sales growth and expand margins during crises (as • Companies will need to restructure their cost bases by rethinking every component of their business opposed to 44% of companies who shrink on both). Only RIGHT-SIZE YOUR REAL ESTATE (e.g. assets, operations, sourcing) to align to future those retailers who take bold action will leap the ravine. Optimize both footprint and cost operations and offers. Where this burden is too high, restructuring may require bankruptcy or insolvency. • Supply chains will diversify to reduce inventory costs, GET BACK TO GROWTH TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OMNI-CHANNEL OPPORTUNITY cash-outs, and the risk of product not selling. This Look for incrementality may involve shifting volume to new suppliers and geographies or shifting inventory to vendors. KICK-START DEMAND Understand, shape, and capture trends RESHAPE ORG AND CAPABILITIES REBUILD YOUR ORGANIZATION TO THE NEW REALITY Optimize resources, retain agility ! REDEFINE POSITION THROUGH OPPORTUNISTIC M&A Gain capabilities and scale Issue 03 | 5
ANALYSIS By any measure, Amazon has emerged stronger from the global crisis. But it has involved some tough decisions, major investments and a very clear focus on doing the things that make a difference as Xian Wang, Senior Director of Product and Content at Edge by Ascential reveals. Amazon has clearly been the outstanding performer an essential role in providing access to the supplies and through the course of this global pandemic and has played necessities essential to daily lives. Like many retailers, it AMAZON RISES TO an essential role in providing access to the supplies and has been focused on initiatives to find solutions to the way necessities essential to daily lives. Like many retailers, it that COVID-19 has reshaped shopping habits, industries has been focused on initiatives to find solutions to the way and economies around the world. that COVID-19 has reshaped shopping habits, industries Amazon also held off taking delivery of non-essential items and economies around the world. THE CHALLENGE to their warehouses and extending (even on Prime) delivery Amazon has had to react with incredible speed and dates to 1+ month out in order so that they could prioritise even its not-inconsiderable supply chain and fulfilment essential high demand categories, with extra steps in France capabilities have been tested. Despite being one of the and Italy to stop shipping out to customers, going as far best placed in terms of infrastructure and agility to as to offer incentives for customers to postpone delivery. respond to this unprecedented surge arising from this Finally, Amazon has postponed Prime Day, its flagship retail By Xian Wang unplanned event (whereas Prime day and Cyber week event, as well as removing certain promotions or deals from were planned), much like other retailers, Amazon was still its platform during peak lockdown demand, to focus on challenged by the sheer volume of demand. shipping essentials to consumers. Very focused demand on certain categories meant that Clearly fulfilment remains top of mind, as Amazon Amazon had to react very quickly to combat issues that struggled to keep up with demand. Most recently, they also arose, to ensure that their platform and marketplace announced the intention to hire 100,000 extra employees, retained trust with shoppers. It was one of the first retailers and raised wages, as well as to support safety of their to implement “price gouging” defense measures, and today workforce, offered two weeks paid sick leave for workers continues its efforts in key categories such as hand sanitiser that tested positive for COVID-19, all of which will have and masks, where some sellers were raising prices, or where implications on its operating profit. the out of stocks led to higher price points as lower priced WHAT IS TOP OF MIND FOR THE AMAZON SHOPPER items sold out and came off the platform. Amazon were TODAY? also quick to flag and take measures to rectify where sellers Purchase behaviours are changing daily amidst this were inappropriately altering their product content to take unprecedented disruption to shoppers daily lives. Initial advantage of the current situation such as, unauthorised needs were around stocking up on supplies, health, medical claims that did not conform to safety standards, hygiene and protection. going as far as to put hold on 4000+ sellers and contacting customers who might have been affected. Insights from search behaviour is key, as this is typically a consumer’s first step on the digital path to purchase. Amazon has clearly been the outstanding performer Search is an early indicator of shifts in categories, and through the course of this global pandemic and has played which categories might be affected next. PROJECTED STAGES OF GROCERY SHOPPER BEHAVIOUR DURING COVID-19 PANDEMIC SUSTAINED SOCIAL TRANSITION BACK TO COVID-19 CONCERN GROWS SHOCK DRIVES URGENCY DISTANCING SETS IN NORMAL LIFE Environmental Issues abroad spark Closure and social distancing New temporary normal Stores gradually reopen Factor concern locally drive panic buying reveals new nees as and consumers re-enter Restaurants, non-essantial consumers spend majority daily life with uncertain stores close, with footfall of time in home economic outlook Consumer Spending Trajectory ($) diverted to grocer Big stock-up no longer Severe out-of-stocks online relevant, consumers now and in stores for household just replenishing supply First movers stock up on essentials, food staples and In case of over-purchased hygiene products, food hygiene products categories, sales decline staples, and household Discretianory purchases Consumer Behavior essentials Dramatic increase for increase (perhaps below electronics, toys and game normal) as shoppers settle Day-to-day economy as consumer prepare to work in to home confinment Consumers manage down continues with moderate from home Housholds subscribe to excess stock level and impact on inventory ecommerce auto- then resume normal Demand for delivery accross VDB Photos / Shutterstock.com and traffic replenishment schemes spending patterns industry skyrockets Source: Edge by Ascential Issue 03 | 7
BREAKING RECORDS Across all consumer packaged goods, the latest 3-4 weeks on Amazon in both North America and Europe have beaten both Prime Day 2019 and Cyber Week 2019, previously the highest sales periods in history for those categories prior to COVID-19, AMAZON SEARCH TERM RANKINGS OVER TIME IN THE US which gives us an indication of the scope of the unplanned demand that Amazon has had to manage through. 2019 - Q4 2020 - JANUARY Monitoring of search trends would have indicated where shoppers were looking to Amazon Category Retail Sales Comparison - US: Latest Week WC 12/4/2020 Search Search 350% OVERALL: Search Term Frequency Search Term Frequency Amazon’s platform to source items such Eight of the twelve Rank Rank as masks and hand sanitisers, going as far categories had the peak 300% AirPods 1 iPhone 11 Case 1 back as early January, well ahead of any in sales in the weeks iPhone 11 case 2 N95 Mask 2 government/policy announcements. commencing March 8, 250% Nintendo Switch 3 AirPods 3 Although health and hygiene related terms 2020 or March 15, 2020. Laptop 4 airPod Case 4 continued to persist as top interest for 200% The categories outside Christmas Decorations 5 Surgical mask 5 today’s shopper, analysis of search terms of this were cleaning Wireless Earbuds 6 Wireless earbuds 6 showed a second wave of searches for and hand sanitizing iPhone Charger 7 Kobe bryant jersey 7 consumer electronics, and entertainment. 150% categories which peaked Apple Watch 8 Apple watch band 8 earlier, much before wider As these events have pushed consumers 100% airPod Case 9 Led strip lights 9 lockdown measures were to change the way they interact with work Christmas Tree 10 iPhone 11 Pro Max Case 10 and family and their daily routines, this announced Apple Watch Band 11 AirPods Case 11 was reflected in what they were looking to 50% OTHER CATEGORY Weighted Blanket 12 Mask 12 equip themselves with to cope under new PEAKS: iPhone 11 pro Max Case 13 iPhone XR cases 13 circumstances and build out home offices. 0 Hand Sanitizers Headphones 14 Laptop 14 (w/c January 26, 2020) The rise of work from home requirements Disinfectant Wipes iPad 15 Nintendo Switch 15 -50% (w/c February 23, 2020) resulted in a spike in searches and Hand Wash ( Halloween Costumes for Women 16 Air Fryer 16 Household Toilet Disinfectant Hand Hand Vitamin C Multivitamins Grocery & Beverages Breakfast Snack Pantry purchases of technology such as printer Supplies Paper Wipes Sanitizers Wash Gourmet Food Foods Foods Staples w/c March 1, 2020) Bluetooth Headphones 17 Water Bottle 17 -100% Vitamin C supplies, desktops, displays. Gaming for Nintendo Switch Games 18 Apple Watch 18 (w/c March 22, 2020) entertainment also boosted the demand Latest Week vs YAGO Latest Week vs Prime Day Week 2019 Latest Week vs Cyber Week 2019 Latest Week vs 1 March 2020 Lightning Cable 19 Pop Socket 19 for technology, both in terms of devices and Source: Edge by Ascential Air Fryer 20 iPhone 11 20 associated accessories. Exercise was also a trend that came in the second wave, with 350% Amazon Category Retail Sales Comparison - UK: Latest Week WC 12/4/2020 OVERALL: Similar to the US, Food & searches for items like “resistance bands” Drinks categories had their 2020 - FEBRUARY WEEK ENDING MARCH 14, 2020 and “yoga mats” climbing fast. 300% peak in sales after those Search Search Cleaning and Hand Wash Search Term Frequency Search Term Frequency As consumers face the prospect of an categories. Rank Rank 250% extended lockdown period with movement Home Care & Cleaning, Soaps N95 Mask 1 Toilet Paper 1 restrictions, but as weather moved into & Hand Wash and Antiseptics Hand Sanitizer 2 Hand Saritizer 2 Spring, we also saw an increased interest 200% & Disinfectants peaked earliest on the week commencing Face Mask 3 Clorox Wipes 3 in outdoor entertainment and home March 1, 2020. iPhone 11 Case 4 Toilet Paper Bulk 4 improvement, with interest on search terms 150% Cold & Flu, Health & Baby Masks For Germ Protection 5 Disinfectant Wipes 5 like “pool” and “trampoline” entering the Care, Baby Bottle Sterilisers, AirPods 6 Lysol Spray 6 top 50 terms. 100% Vitamins and Cereals & Breakfast were next, peaking Mask 7 N95 Mask 7 week of March 15, 2020. Surgical Mask 8 Paper Towels 8 50% Drinks, Crisps & Snacks and Airpod Case 9 Baby Wipes 9 Tinned & Jarred Food all had N95 Respirator Mask 10 Aloe Vera Gel 10 0 their peak in sales in the week commencing April 5, 2020 Apple Watch Band 11 Purell Hand Sanitizer 11 Face Mask Medical 12 Hand Soap 12 -50% Wirelesse Arbuds 13 Sanitizer 13 Home Care Soaps & Antiseptics & Medication Cold & Flu Health & Baby Bottle Vitamins Drinks Cereals & Crisps Tinned & Torches iPhone 11 Pro Max Case 14 Lysol 14 -100% & Cleaning Hand Wash Disinfectants & Remedies Baby Care Sterilisers Breakfast Bars & Snacks Jarred Food Apple Watch 15 Thermometer 15 Latest Week vs YAGO Latest Week vs Prime Day Week 2019 Latest Week vs Cyber Week 2019 Latest Week vs 1 March 2020 iPhone XR Cases 16 Rubbing Alcohol 16 Source: Edge by Ascential N95 17 Alcohol 17 Valentines 18 Hand Sanitizer Travel Size 18 Brands and retailers have had to prioritise essential SKUs for manufacturing and supply (including household tissue and tinned Lingerie For Women 19 Purell 19 groceries), reallocating labour and resources where necessary in order to continue improving availability rates. As Amazon continues Water Bottle 20 Bidet 20 to focus on its coronavirus response, brands should prioritise staying in stock with key items, supporting the broader efforts of the Source: Edge by Ascential platform and avoiding seeing digital shelf placement deterioration due to being out-of-stock. Brands can and should communicate frequently with retailers to identify and anticipate most in-demand products to increase capacity for and work together to implement strategies to balance in-store availability levels with increased online demand. 8 | Issue 03 Issue 03 | 9
ANALYSIS As the weeks pass, it is hard to escape the cries of stocking up and spending more, so the impact on the top- frustration at the current lack of certainty. Headlines are line isn’t quite as severe if you are well prepared. dominated by demands for a clear plan on how lockdown SO, WHAT CAN RETAILERS DO TO MAXIMISE TRADING restrictions are to be lifted. But so much about this POTENTIAL THROUGH THE RECOVERY? HERE ARE SOME pandemic remains inherently uncertain – there is still STARTING THOUGHTS… much that is unknown about the virus, no least our ability • Protect customers and employees with appropriate to reliably test, treat and vaccinate – and so the only PPE and re-flow stores to avoid crowding and ensure guarantee to any stated plan would be that it would be social distancing can be maintained. subject to change. However, we would urge retailers not to sit back, and instead to embrace uncertainty and plan now • Enable a speedy shopping experience for customers for as good a comeback as possible. who wish to minimise exposure time in store. • Drive the shift to cashless, contactless and As of a week ago, a third of the global population were self-scan options. under some form of COVID-19 restrictions, and the reality of lifting those restrictions in a way that optimises • Maximise conversion with good availability of key outcomes for all is an incredibly complex task. Some areas lines, contact-free service options and a quick and are already ahead of others, giving indications as to what easy checkout process. the order of play might be. Germany has already allowed • Consider ways to drive size of basket, using EMERGING FROM some small shops to re-open, and in Iran, shopping malls promotions and merchandising to increase the spend are starting to open for a limited period of the day. of customers who have made it to your store. What is increasingly clear is that the reality is not one of • And incentivise a return visit – use vouchers and spot an immediate bounce back when our doors are once again incentives to prompt future spend. THE SHADOWS opened. The experiences of retailers in countries that are • Consider how to evolve digital channels to provide already ‘opening up’ suggests that footfall is going to be what the stores no longer can. For the time being, low – typically half of what it should be – as consumers they can no longer be the place for browsing, remain cautious about venturing out and hesitant to inspiration and experience, so instead consider browse. Recent statistics published by YouGov support this how digital can step in, such as social and peer By Tom Charlick By Katherine Fiander perspective: for example, 46% of UK consumers said they recommendation, bespoke digital services and would feel uncomfortable visiting a clothing shop once personalised inspiration. restrictions are lifted. A lack of current guidance on when and how retail will be And it seems the road to recovery will be long, with able to trade is no reason for inaction. It is critical that businesses in China reporting demand remains about leadership teams are planning now to maximise their 10% below normal, as caution lingers. On a positive note, comeback, regardless of what happens next. however, people who do venture into stores are typically With a steady increase in countries emerging from lockdown, retailers should not anticipate a big recovery in consumer spending, says OC&C Strategy Consultants’ ALMOST HALF OF CONSUMERS STATE THAT THEY WOULD BE UNCOMFORTABLE Katherine Fiander, Associate Partner, and Tom Charlick, Partner. Evidence shows VISITING A CLOTHING STORE WHEN LOCKDOWN RESTRICTIONS ARE LIFTED Consumer Comfort Post-COVID: “How comfortable or uncomfortable would you feel visiting each of the following places once the government that consumers remain cautious and anxious, so how should retailers prepare to loosens the current lockdown restrictions, and they reopen?” (% of those who say they ever visit these places, 22 April 2020) emerge from the crisis? Comfortable Don't know Uncomfortable Garden centres 70 6 25 Hairdressers/ barbers 48 6 46 Clothing stores 48 6 46 Restaurants 37 6 57 Coffee shops 36 6 58 Pubs and bars 32 5 63 Beauty and nail salons 32 8 60 Gyms 30 7 62 Alexandros Michailidis / Shutterstock.com Source: YouGov, OC&C analysis Issue 03 | 11
ANALYSIS In their second report highlighting how retailers are developing innovative solutions in response to this global crisis, AlixPartners focus on some outstanding examples of best practice in China. INNOVATION EVERYONE BECOMES A SALESPERSON The concept of livestreaming ecommerce isn’t new for Chinese consumers. It has seen a substantial upsurge over the last year or so, with influencers and brand CULTIVATING CLOSER CUSTOMER CONNECTIONS With ‘in real life’ (IRL) connections absent, many brands were hyper-focused on online customer communication and outreach during this period. Names such as Louis SPOTLIGHT: CHINA representatives directly selling products via interactive Vuitton, Burberry, and local beauty brand Perfect Diary online sessions or through social media platforms. But engaged in one-to-one customer conversations on social the coronavirus-prompted closures upped the ante on it media with the idea of establishing touchpoints that go significantly. Fila and Anta Sports asked all staff members beyond tailored, impersonal messages. Michael Kors ran to open individual WeChat stores with the goal of quan a campaign on WeChat with a step-by-step tutorial on yuan ying xiao (全员营销), or all-hands selling, and set how to draw on leather and personalise handbags. Manolo Michael McCool Jason Ong daily sales targets for them. Adidas decided to launch Blahnik offered adult colouring sketches. Others shared Managing Director, Director, AlixPartners a new shoe via a Tmall livestream. Brands that took health and safety information – such as Alibaba creating AlixPartners advantage of such experiments even included high luxury an educational manual on COVID-19 that also included a names such as Miu Miu, Estée Lauder, Celine, and Prada. list of vetted suppliers for masks, medical gowns, etc. @alibabacloud.com STREAMLINING DELIVERY TO MINIMISE DELAYS As home delivery became the norm and demand skyrocketed, industries joined together to ease their collective burden. Grocery chains Hema and 7Fresh were among retailers that brought on thousands of employees from restaurants to help with delivery-related activities such as sorting and packing. Hema, also known as Freshippo, commissioned buses to help consolidate deliveries instead of sending individual couriers on electric scooters. Restaurant delivery partner Meituan Dianping, meanwhile, sought to allay customers’ concerns about food safety by leaving behind a card listing temperatures of everyone involved in the cooking and (contactless) @adidas delivery process alongside the meal. columbo.photog / Shutterstock.com Issue 03 | 13
CONSUMER TRENDS Understanding how this global health crisis is changing consumers not just in the short- HOW THE PANDEMIC term is going to be increasingly vital for retail leaders. EY’s recently launched Future Consumer Index will help provide this invaluable insight. EY’s Global Retail Leader, Thomas Harms unveils in this first report some of the key findings from the Index. IS CHANGING D aily life for people around the world has changed FOUR NEW SEGMENTS HAVE EMERGED in ways that would have been unthinkable a few In this first article I want to share some initial insights weeks ago. But as retailers try to find their way about how consumers are changing, and some of the through the COVID-19 pandemic, it’s important to questions this raises for retail leaders. CONSUMER remember that the global consumer was already evolving Not surprisingly, the issues worrying consumers the at great speed. That process is now playing out faster than most right now relate to the health of their families, anyone imagined. whether they can buy for their basic needs, and the loss of To make it through this crisis, and to get ready for what freedoms they took for granted. How they shop and what BEHAVIOUR comes next, retailers need to anticipate the kind of they buy is changing profoundly. For example: consumer that is emerging. We’ve created the EY Future • 42% think the way they shop will change Consumer Index to help. It’s based on a comprehensive survey that takes a 360-degree view of the consumer – not • 35% think the products they buy will change just how they are shopping and where they are spending, • 28% think they will pay more attention to what they but also how they’re feeling about returning to normality, consume and what impact it has what they’re most concerned about, and how they believe • 45% think it will take months for shopping to get By Thomas Harms, Global Retail Leader, EY the world will change. back to normal, if ever By tracking changing behaviours and sentiment over Digging into the detail beneath these topline findings, the coming months, we’ll be able to identify the new we’ve identified four new consumer segments. There consumer segments that are emerging. Importantly, we’ll are marked differences in the way people are feeling be able to see which are temporary reactions to changing personally, how worried they are about the future, and how circumstances and which point to more fundamental shifts. they are changing their spending across these segments This will help retail leaders to adapt faster and stay agile. (see Figure 1). EY FUTURE CONSUMER INDEX: AT THIS POINT, THE CRISIS IS DEFINING FOUR CONSUMER SEGMENTS 35% 27% 26% SAVE AND CUT DEEP STAY CALM, STOCK PILE Hardest hit by the CARRY ON pandemic. Most Not so concerned about the pessimistic about the Not changing their spending pandemic, but worried about future. Spending less habits. Not directly impacted by their families. Pessimistic across all categories. the pandemic. Worried that others about the long-term effects. are stockpiling. 11% HIBERNATE AND SPEND Most concerned about the pandemic, but best positioned to deal with it. Optimistic for the future. Spending more across the board. Photo by Joshua Rawson-Harris on Unsplash Issue 03 | 15
For example, the 27% of consumers in the ‘Cut deep’ GET AHEAD OF CHANGING SENTIMENT In this next phase, 13% of consumers would fall into the What is clear is this: retailers that understand how the segment are pessimistic about the future and are spending In addition to asking people how they are responding now, ‘Keep cutting’ segment. They will continue to change what COVID-era consumer is evolving will navigate the current less across all categories. They are the people who’ve been we asked them to share their views on how they expect to they buy and how. These consumers are the least educated crisis better and get back up to speed faster when the time hardest hit by the pandemic so far. By contrast, the 11% in change their behaviour once they feel the crisis has passed. and least likely to be working. They are people for whom comes. Here are some questions to reflect on now: the ‘Hibernate and spend’ segment are actually spending Based on this, the four segments we see now could shift the pandemic has always been a huge worry. • How do the emerging customer segments more than they used to. These consumers are the ones into five very different segments (see Figure 2). By contrast, 9% of consumers fall into the ‘Back with we’ve identified here relate to your traditional most concerned about the pandemic, but they are also the a bang’ segment. These are younger people who are customer base? best positioned to deal with it. more likely to be in work. Their daily lives were the most • If consumers decide to keep shopping online, even disrupted by the pandemic, but they will be the most when stores re-open, how will you cope with a EY FUTURE CONSUMER INDEX: FIVE NEW CONSUMER SEGMENTS TO ANTICIPATE optimistic and plan to spend much more in all categories. permanent channel mix shift? AS WE EMERGE FROM THE CRISIS WILL SHORT-TERM CONSUMER CHANGES STICK? • If consumers decide to stick with the new or How will the four consumer segments we see today locally produced products they’ve been forced to transition into the five we’ve identified for the next phase? try in lockdown, is your supply chain agile enough 31% 25% We’ve mapped the pathways that the Index is currently to respond? suggesting in Figure 3. As you can see, the evolution will • If more consumers want to buy products with a be fluid and complex. For example, many of the consumers low environmental and social impact, do you have making deep cuts now will keep cutting in future, but the capacity to source and monitor them, and many will not. GET TO NORMAL CAUTIOUSLY It remains to be seen how this actually plays out. In these communicate their story? I’ll share more insights on changing consumer behaviour Spending largely unchanged. Daily lives EXTRAVAGANT uncertain times we need to be cautious about making predictions, especially since people’s own assumptions of and the potential impact on retail in each issue of Retailing in a time of crisis. were never really affected. Least their future behaviours may not always be accurate. But concerned about the pandemic overall. Middle to high income. Very we will track these changes as they occur and highlight any focused on health but relatively new segments we see emerging. optimistic despite a strong belief that a global recession is EY FUTURE CONSUMER INDEX: HOW CONSUMER SEGMENTS COULD TRANSITION POST COVID-19 coming. Will spend more in areas important to them. 13% 22% KEEP CUTTING STAY FRUGAL Least educated. Least likely to be working. Making deep spending cuts. Changing Spending slightly less, but some deep what they buy and how. The pandemic cuts. Trying to get back on their feet. was always a huge worry. Among the most pessimistic about the future . 9% BACK TO NORMAL The views reflected in this article are the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the global EY organization or its member firms. Younger and in work. Spending much more in all categories. Their daily lives were most disrupted. Methodology Now they're the most optimistic. This first edition of the EY Future Consumer Index is based on a survey of 4,859 consumers across the US, Canada, UK, France and Germany during the week of April 6 2020. The survey questionnaire covered current behaviours, sentiment and intent. 16 | Issue 03 Issue 03 | 17
CONSUMER TRENDS For those stores that have been allowed to stay open during this crisis, all the existing rules of layout and merchandising have had to change. But as and when more stores re-open, what will be the key considerations retailers need to make if they are going to appeal to the new consumer that will emerge post-crisis. Mathias Ullrich, Managing Director of the LIGANOVA Group shares his vision. THE POST-CORONA A s the COVID-19 crisis continues, nobody knows when everyday life will be possible again. Yet one thing is certain: the longer this state of as to coordinate touchpoints and add or expand service offerings. Adjusting the brand, target group and value proposition requires rethinking the company’s offering CONSUMER emergency lasts and the stricter the measures to based on customer needs. This affects the relevance of slow the virus’s spread, the more likely it is that there will certain product categories, but also the characteristics of be no return to the status quo. products themselves. Depending on the scenario, the origin, ecological and social footprint and the longevity of products The best way forward for retailers is to plan ahead become increasingly relevant. Retailers must seek a close based on scenarios that outline a possible future. These By Mathias Ullrich, Managing Director, LIGANOVA Group exchange with existing and new target groups, to identify scenarios include changes in social behaviour (a return to their needs and sharpen the product range accordingly. cosmopolitan communities vs. further social cocooning), consumer behaviour (hedonism and spending vs. This proximity to the customer is also essential for the continued minimalism), travel behaviour (globetrotting development of new products. The role of experience in vs. “purpose before playa”) and changes in work behaviour retail will continue to be crucial for consumers when it (work-life balance vs. security and a return to tradition). comes to choosing the right product. Retailers should not take for granted that consumers will fall back into purchase No matter how each retailer sees the future, it should patterns that are purely product-price based. The desire for already be implementing actions and measures to prepare the right experience could well increase, as consumers tend for the new normal. However, companies must avoid the towards more careful and selective purchases in the future. risk of reactivity and getting lost in short-lived measures. Retailers are best advised to double down on experience The shift in consumer behaviour and preferences presents rather than trying to turn back time. a great opportunity for retailers to rethink their brand Retailers might also rethink their retail footprints: is the values, positioning and, more importantly, their go-to- megastore approach still future-proof post COVID-19? Or is market approach. Particular attention must be paid to this an opportunity to diversify the footprint and include a the point of sale (POS). As physical touchpoints are under mix of store formats, ranging from flagship stores to shop- scrutiny, the role of the POS needs to be fundamentally in-shop or pop-up store concepts where local customer rethought. Online shopping proved to be reliable and proximity is higher and micro-segments can be targeted acceptable during the crisis, so physical stores may more efficiently? increase in relevance as the destination touchpoint for experiences. In this setup, physical touchpoints could be While the lockdown has undisputedly created a financial less crowded with products and have a more spacious threat to retailers globally, it also offers the chance to showroom character, while seamlessly integrating the rectify omissions of the past. The time is ripe to deepen digital space as an “endless aisle” for replenishment of relationships with customers, expand or hone product goods not available in-store. offerings, and push forward the inevitable shift to full digital integration and immersive, transformative Similarly, the merging of digital and physical touchpoints experiences. And while each retailer’s strategy will be is becoming more important than ever. New, innovative unique, they are united by one factor: this shared and service offerings could contribute to a smooth customer unprecedented moment of opportunity. journey in the future. Observing and anticipating consumer behaviour is of great importance in this regard, as well Photo by CJ Infantino on Unsplash Issue 03 | 19
FUTURE TRENDS It is hard to see beyond today’s short term, enormous challenges. But in a crisis that is sweeping away so much of what we’ve come to take for granted, can we imagine a different future in which a new retail can emerge? Saher Sidhom, the founder of specialist, scenario planning network Hackmasters, gives his unique perspective that poses some profound questions IMAGINING A NEW I n a PC (Post COVID-19) world the retail industry’s biggest mistake would be to miss the opportunity to re-imagine itself. COVID-19 has set retail and its landlords. Collaboration is needed – from local and frugal innovation/appropriate technology movement to open source working practices. Collaborations around RETAIL FUTURE consumers some interesting and searching questions: efficiencies and around growth, the retail industry will need to echo the technology industry in its ability to • Do we really need anything but the essentials? In network, exchange data and improve the seamless transfer the electronics sector the top selling categories are of opportunity and optimisation of collective resources. around home working, education, wellbeing and Winning in retail is not going to be by being smarter than entertainment. By contrast, the smartphone, which By Saher Sidhom, Founder and CEO, HACKMASTERS + MASTERS a competitor but by being part of a most powerful and is the icon of modern technology over-inflation, is not symbiotic eco-system of partners. selling so well. • Do we really need to breathe dirty air? The On the paradigm level, there are many opportunities environment and air quality are some of the real to consider: winners of the lockdown and people can literally • From stores to re-imagining spaces: modular, flexible, breathe the difference. pop-up, show rooms and distribution warehouses in • Can we afford to live in short termism without city centres. For example, look at how Dubai Airport resilience, adaptability and agility? As value chains explored frontier technologies in self-assembly fail to meet different levels and types of demand, architecture to build spaces that build themselves. think: waiting for an Ocado delivery slot or Amazon… Space10 is an example from IKEA where an entire prioritising product categories or worse empty shelves… village is designed for liveability and modularity All the above and more is begging a new question of the where residents can swap flats. retail industry: What are the new values, infrastructures • From sales staff to true boundary-less communities and new paradigms that retail should set for itself? of passionate supporters of the brand purpose. EMBRACING CHANGE • From being a mere employer of people to a network Now is the time to redefine retail. The opportunity is to manager of service providers, suppliers, influencers develop new breakthroughs in values, infrastructure and and customers at local and global levels. A digital practice. As fashion forecaster Geraldine Wharry says: “It is site is no longer a store but a livestreaming, content time to think the impossible.” beaming, socially engaging community platform. Brands such as Nike and Lululemon that understood On the values level, at the top of the list is ‘caring’. the value of community from the outset are the ones Retailers and brands alike need to discover their “heroic that managed to enable community to be a peer-to- self and re-imagine their role in society,” as John Grant, an peer channel rather than a loyalty programme. author and strategist, commented. Caring for something • From bricks-and-mortar and digital to true bigger than themselves; caring for the environment and experiences that expand the senses not mimic what society is going to be essential at every level. This will is lost from the physical shopping experience. mean a move beyond disposable, obsolete and inflated products. Having a true and compelling purpose to a brand now and for the future needs to be seen in action. INNOVATION WITH INTENT Consider YSL’s decision to abandon the fashion seasons Innovation with intent is the ultimate insurance. We have and stop the madness of seasonal cycles. an opportunity to define new intent directions for the On the infrastructure level, COVID-19 has shown us how industry: social, environmental and cultural. It is retail’s co-dependent everything and everyone is. Think: luxury defining moment. goods without tourism…retailers without understanding Photo by Franck V. on Unsplash Issue 03 | 21
ANALYSIS Three clear consumer propositions can help us identify the winners from the retail THE STRONGEST lockdown. Elspeth Cheung, Global Brand Valuations Director at BrandZ, explains T he latest BrandZ Top 75 Most Valuable Global Even with social distancing measures in place, businesses Retail ranking shows that the brand value of with grocery at their core have benefited from a rise in RETAIL BRANDS ARE retailers is growing. Notably however the rise in spending as people have put food at the centre of their total value is being driven by a key handful of lockdown around the world. brands rather than across the board. The final group of companies that have done well are those With many physical retail outlets forced to close as part that have ensured our minds and bodies are kept fit during GETTING STRONGER of the lockdown, the biggest group of winners have been confinement. Yoga clothing brand lululemon is the top the digital natives. The coronavirus crisis underscores the riser in this year’s ranking up 40% to $9.7 billion. essential role that retail plays in both our daily lives and And it’s succeeded not just because it sells the right the overall global economy. Amazon, JD and Alibaba are all clothing but because it also delivers lessons and guidance ecommerce giants that have benefited from their ability on how best to stay supple through a series of online to help customers navigate the lockdown by supplying the Elspeth Cheung, Global goods that we have needed to make home life work. lessons and fitness programmes. Brand Valuations All three categories of brands share one thing in common, Director, BrandZ Amazon, the most valuable retail brand, is up 32% to they are going the extra mile to help us navigate a unique $415.9 billion, commanding 27% of the Top 75’s total brand period in the world’s history. How retailers behave during value, while JD has risen 24% to $25.5 billion and Alibaba this crisis in terms of helping people through the crisis, as is up 16% to $152.5 billion. well as the way in which they treat their staff and whether The second group of retailers to thrive have been the they comply with government and health advice, will be supermarkets, brands that sell most of their goods and important to their survival. The brand value they accrue services from physical locations have also thrived with will help them to come out of this period stronger and Walmart up 24% at $45.8 billion and Costco up 35% at more resilient than their competitors. $28.7 billion we see Walmart and Costco also featuring in our top 10 risers table. TOP 75 MOST VALUABLE GLOBAL RETAIL BRANDS 2020 Rank Brand Category Brand Value2020 $M Brand Value2019 $M Brand Value % Change 2020 vs. 2019 1 Amazon Retail 415,855 315,505 +32% 2 Alibaba Retail 152,525 131,246 +16% 3 McDonald’s Fast Food 129,321 130,368 -1% 4 The Home Depot Retail 57,585 53,507 +8% 5 Louis Vuitton Luxury 51,777 47,214 +10% 6 Nike Apparel 49,962 47,360 +5% 7 Starbucks Fast Food 47,753 45,884 +4% 8 Walmart Retail 45,783 36,801 +24% 9 Chanel Luxury 36,120 37,006 -2% 10 Hermès Luxury 33,008 30,966 +7% The Top 75 Most Valuable Global Retail Brands was due to be launched at the 2020 World Retail Congress, originally scheduled for 28 April and now taking place 28-30 October. BrandZ continues to partner with World Retail Congress and launched the retail report together via a bespoke digital experience. The report together with a wide range of interactive and downloadable content is now available in a special BrandZ and World Retail Congress Virtual World Experience. Go to https://retail.diginar.io to download JL IMAGES / Shutterstock.com the special app. Issue 03 | 23
ANALYSIS T he retail innovations we’ve been tracking continue TEA CHAIN USES LIVE STREAMING AND INFLUENCER TO to highlight the acceleration of trends that were LAUNCH NEW PRODUCT RETAIL INNOVATIONS already gaining traction prior to the COVID-19 In China, Naixue Tea collaborated with Alibaba’s local pandemic — including livestreaming sales, creative delivery service affiliates and ecommerce livestreamer influencer marketing and the use of virtual reality — while Zhang Dayi to launch a new line of themed products for also attempting to strike the right balance between customers to enjoy at home. Zhang’s BigEve beauty brand consumer safety and convenience. worked with the chain to create a gift box shaped like a RESPONDING TO to-go cup, which they filled with a limited-edition cleanser, “This is the moment for business leaders to be investing in facial scrub, body wash, and Naixue drink vouchers. understanding the innovation landscape which will frame future retail. We are on the verge of ‘the great reset’ and Takeaway: The livestream on Taobao sold nearly 3000 those that are on the right side of disruption will thrive,” sets within seconds, and more than 10,000 units by the CORONAVIRUS James Bidwell, Co-Founder of disruption and innovation end of the broadcast. As the ecommerce/livestreaming consultancy Re_Set, commented. space becomes more crowded, it’s important to cater to a target market. Consumers aged between 21 and 30 years Livestreaming and VR have allowed some brands to shift old have become the core tea drinkers, accounting for half sales online or, in some cases, launch and promote brand of the total number. Because young white-collar workers new products. In China, we’ve seen Naixue Tea collaborate Justin Sablich, Editor, in China — especially women (70%) — are Naixue’s target with an influencer to release a new line targeted at young, Springwise customers, livestreaming events and beauty collaborations home consumers. Other brands, like one bridal company are particularly attractive and represent the future of we spotted in Spain, have created new, virtual platforms to advertising to many industries. continue moving products during the lockdown. Find out more While many retailers are focusing on ecommerce solutions, there are innovations making it possible to keep foot traffic active in-store, where possible, and with social distancing in mind. A design studio in Rotterdam has come up with a new layout for open-air markets and an American tech company has developed a smart device for use in-store that ensures shoppers keep a safe distance. Time will tell whether these innovative retail ideas will remain relevant once there is a return to relative normalcy, but it is without doubt inspiring to see so many creative solutions evolving out of this crisis. VCG Image by 二 毛 from Pixabay Photo by Ramon Kagie on Unsplash Copy Issue 03 | 25
BRIDAL COMPANY LAUNCHES FIRST VIRTUAL JEWELLER PIVOTS TO LIVESTREAMED ‘STORES’ Takeaway: According to many health officials, COVID-19 REDESIGNED LOCAL FOOD MARKETS WITH SOCIAL SHOWROOM can spread between people up to two metres from DISTANCING IN MIND each other, which is the encouraged guideline for social distancing. Shops have therefore had to put stringent measures in place, to enforce social distancing, but many are struggling with this, because of excess demand and stock-piling trends. In addition to new technology like Indyme’s being developed, we’re also seeing increased use of contactless or cashier-less technology and redesigned store layouts. Pixabay Find out more The Shenzhen-based multi-brand jeweller Ideal converted INSTACART SHARES DATA TROVE TO EASE GROCERY its business almost overnight from a traditional, bricks SHORTAGES and mortar-based shop, to an ecommerce model that uses livestreaming. The company’s in-store sales staff have become live broadcasters, with each one managing their own livestreamed ‘store’ as a type of franchise. Ideal has partnered with SaaS retail software provider YouZan to build a mini-platform within the popular WeChat app. Takeaway: By moving to a livestreaming model, Ideal is able to curate its collections to target regional tastes and styles. Sales associates are also able to also create personalised content, such as giving style advice and offering regional promotions. The company had planned to roll out the new platform later in the year but pushed it forward by several months after being forced to close stores during the pandemic. This livestreaming model is Instacart becoming increasingly popular in China, but in light of the current situation we may well see it expand very soon into The American online grocery delivery platform Instacart is new markets across the world. sharing its vast trove of data with producers of packaged Find out more food items. The hope is this will help with widespread Ich bin dann mal raus hier. from Pixabay supply chain issues. Instacart delivers from 25,000 grocery stores, located in more than 5,500 cities across North Barcelona-based bridal company Pronovias Group IN-STORE DEVICE TO HELP SOCIAL DISTANCING America. This gives the company a unique position to launched what it claims to be the first digital showroom capture data on what people are buying on a particular day in the industry, where customers can shop the latest and which products are running low and where. collections of all the group’s brands – Pronovias, St Patrick, Nicole, White One and Lady Bird. It also debuted Takeaway: Instacart had already been working with a B2B e-service platform to exchange information with selected large packaged food manufacturers, such as Shift Architecture Urbanism customers and plans to expand the number of countries Conagra and Kraft Heinz, to track where products are that offer virtual appointments. running low and fine-tune supply chains. The pandemic The Rotterdam-based design studio Shift has created sped up this process and is also providing Instacart with a hyperlocal market design that keeps shoppers safe Takeaway: With over 400 points of sale in 105 countries, the opportunity to demonstrate how its analytics platform IndyMe through social distancing. Any open-air market can use the initiative is part of Pronovias’ digital transformation can aid food manufacturers. The tech firm has had to the design. Rather than congregating in a single location, process to improve the service for their worldwide San Diego-based tech company Indyme, which specialises respond to issues around PPE for workers and sick pay, but the market’s vendors split into groups of threes and set customers, through multiple channels. According to in shopper engagement and loss prevention, is making it has also had a role to play in helping get grocery supply up around the outside of a 16-square grid with a single IBISWorld, the wedding service industry generated social distancing easier to follow inside shops selling chains running smoothly again. entrance and two exits. €71bn in 2019. With couples postponing or significantly essential items, such as groceries and pharmacies. The downsizing their wedding arrangements and honeymoons, Find out more Takeaway: The COVID-19 pandemic is certainly SmartDome is easy to install and able to be adapted for the COVID-19 shutdown has uprooted the wedding service checkouts, counters, entrances and busy parts of the shop. emphasising the importance of local trade and community industry and the accompanying 1.2 million jobs. However, It is similar to a security camera, and it watches customers connections. It will be interesting to see which adaptations knowing that couples will continue to get engaged, bridal and sends out messages if they are not keeping to the prove useful beyond the periods of lockdown and social companies are also planning for the future and being rules of social distancing, such as “for your safety, please distancing. It may be the case that the most flexible pushed to come up with innovative approaches. maintain at least six feet of social distance”. solutions to these new challenges become more widely adapted for use in other types of disaster relief, especially Find out more if another wave of infections results in additional rounds of isolation measures later in the year. Find out more Every day, powered by its global community of innovators, Springwise spots and analyses the latest innovations that promote positive and sustainable change from around the globe. For further information and to sign up to Springwise visit www.springwise.com/newsletter or email them at info@springwise.com. 26 | Issue 03 Issue 03 | 27
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