THE REFLEX PROJECT EMP-E 2019 PLENARY SESSION: PATHWAYS AND SCENARIOS TOWARDS THE PARIS AGREEMENT/KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM THE LCE 21 PROJECTS - Energy ...
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
EMP-E 2019 PLENARY SESSION: PATHWAYS AND SCENARIOS TOWARDS THE PARIS AGREEMENT/KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM THE LCE 21 PROJECTS THE REFLEX PROJECT TU Dresden Project Coordinator Prof. Dr. Dominik Möst Brussels, 8th October 2019
REFLEX - Analysis of the European energy system under the aspects of flexibility and technological progress Objective: Analyzing and evaluating the development towards a low-carbon energy system with focus on technological progress and flexibility options in the European Union Methodology: Combining three different research fields: Experience Curves, Energy System Modelling and Life Cycle Assessment (social and environmental) Duration: May 2016 – April 2019 Financing: European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No 691685 Website: www.reflex-project.eu 3 TU Dresden Dominik Möst 08/10/19
How will the European energy system look like? How much flexibility is required? – possible scenarios for shaping the European energy system Fossil and Existing System Mod-RES High-RES European nuclear based Scenario Centralized energy system energy system (central) Scenario is based on 100% GHG emission reduction: GHG emission reduction: renewable CENTRALIZED 1400 energy sources • project result • ~ -80% in 20502) installed capacity of intermittent RES [GW] 1200 (explorative approach) RES-share compared to RES-share compared to 1000 EU today’s electricity EU today’s electricity demand (~ 3,000 TWh) : demand (~ 3,000 TWh) : 800 • ~55% in 20501) • 80-90% in 2050 600 • trend to centralized wind power 400 High-RES Conventional 200 Decentralized Renewable Scenario 0 DECENTRALIZED GHG emission reduction: 2014 Mod-RES High-RES High-RES Dec Cen Focus in • ~ -80% in 2050 2050 REFLEX RES-share compared to EU today’s electricity wind onshore wind offshore demand (~ 3,000 TWh) : pv roof top pv ground mounted • 80-90% in 2050 • trend to decentralized solar power 1) EU Reference Scenario 2016 (Capros et al. 2016) 2) EC Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050 (COM 2011/0112)
Within the High-RES scenarios two possible development paths of the European energy system are analysed by applying different normative scenario assumptions More decentralized TODAY More centralized • Stronger deployment of PV • Stronger deployment of wind rooftop and battery systems onshore and offshore • Individual energy sources, small • Large scale centralized energy scale sources • High participation on local level • Heat supply on a centralized level (DSM, multi-modal transport) (e.g. more higher share of district • Decentral onsite hydrogen supply heating) • Heat supply on individual level • Hydrogen production in larger plants with distribution by trailers and pipelines 2050 4 TU Dresden Dominik Möst 08/10/19
Scenarios as narratives: The policy dilemma Scenarios give orientation for todays decisions => (Todays) Present Futures (“Gegenwärtige Zukünfte”) => But not Future presence (aber nicht “Zukünftige Gegenwarte”) Business as usual Indicator (e.g. > 5°C) Explorative (e.g. CO2-Emissions) scenarios „New policy“ (e.g. 3°C) The gap … policy intervention … where is the miracle? Normative scenario Definition of target year? „Target achievement“ (e.g. 1.5°C) Today Future? Time
EU CO2eq emission reduction across all sectors – the linear impacts EU28 total direct emissions from transport, industry, residential, electricity and heating sector 5.000 4.500 Heating 4.000 21% 21% 21% Electricity 3.500 26% Emissions [Mt-CO2eq] 3.000 35% 35% 34% Tertiary 40% 2.500 47% 54% 55% Residential 2.000 64% 64% 1.500 Industry 1.000 81% 80% Transport 500 0 Total GHG 2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 Emissions 1990 Mod-RES High-RES dec High-RES cen CO2 emissions across all sectors in the EU (results from D4.3) • Total EU GHG emissions in 1990 accounted 4,290 Mt-CO2eq (EEA 2016) • Overall emission reduction of 80% in decentral and central scenario can be achieved (total emissions = 860 Mt-CO2eq in 2050) • Transport, Industry, Tertiary and Residential reducing emissions by approx. 69% in decentral and central scenario in 2050 • Electricity and heat sector decrease emissions by approx. 91% in High-RES scenarios in 2050 • High CO2 prices of at least 150 EUR/tCO2 are necessary to achieve -80% GHG emission reduction target 6 TU Dresden Dominik Möst 08/10/19
To achieve the ambitious decarbonisation targets, the role of the energy demand side becomes crucial ❶ Industry, Residential and Tertiary Sector ❷ Transport Sector ❸ Electricity and Heating Sector ❹ Environmental and Societal Impacts AVAILABLE TECHNOLOGIES NOT SUFFICIENT FOR DECARBONISATION OF EU INDUSTRY • Significant process innovations required (CO2-free secondary energy carriers, innovations in material efficiency, circular economy) DIRECT ELECTRIFICATION AND HYDROGEN-USAGE IS CRUCIAL IN INDUSTRY • New uses of electricity for process heat in all sectors (e.g. glass electric furnace, steel electrolysis) • RES based hydrogen as energy carrier and feedstock RES Hydrogen is used in the steel industry with H2 direct reduction replacing oxygen steel Feedstocks are dominated by RES hydrogen for the production of ammonia, methanol & methanol-based ethylene (384 TWh H2 -> 549 TWh electricity) SECTOR COUPLING CRUCIAL • Power to heat, Power to H2, local area networks using heat pumps, regeneration of heat sources RETROFITTING THE BUILDING STOCK • Significant increase of either more in-depth refurbishment or of refurbishing more buildings 7 TU Dresden Dominik Möst 08/10/19
To face the continuous growth of passenger and freight transport demand, strong and timely responses are required ❶ Industry, Residential and Tertiary Sector ❷ Transport Sector ❸ Electricity and Heating Sector ❹ Environmental and Societal Impacts Main drivers of the BEV/PHEV diffusion • Soon competitive prices due to worldwide production of batteries (learning effects) • Charging infrastructure and increased ranges most likely • (Strong market-driven) phase out of pure Internal Combustion Engine cars by 2040 (due to learning effects and CO2-prices) Main drivers of the FCEV diffusion (trucks and others) • Alternative fuels (biofuels or synthetic fuels) based on electrolysis and additional treatments (Power-to-Gas and Power-to-Liquid) for modes for which mature low-emission drive technologies will not be developed in the near future (i.e. aviation and ships) • Reliable H2 refueling infrastructure deployment for trucks along motorways including sufficient H2 supply or on site production are necessary • CO2-free provision of H2 is important, but very challenging (very high CO2 prices necessary) • Policies increasing costs for diesel trucks (e.g. stricter CO2 standards , emission based registration taxes and road tolls) • R&D and subsidies for acceptable prices Source: ISI, TRT, KIT-IIP 8 TU Dresden Dominik Möst 08/10/19
The electrification of demand side sectors and market designs as a coordinated EU CRM are important measures for the EU energy system transition ❶ Industry, Residential and Tertiary Sector ❷ Transport Sector ❸ Electricity and Heating Sector ❹ Environmental and Societal Impacts PATHS TOWARDS A LOW-CARBON ELECTRICITY AND HEAT SUPPLY • Strong electricity demand increase due to electrification of sectors • Back-up capacities still relevant, switch to less carbon intensive fuels has to be enforced • At high CO2 prices (>70 EUR/tCO2) CCS is an important decarbonisation option • Strong RES extension is a no regret option as higher RES shares significantly reduce fossil fuel based generation • Increase of heat storage to provide flexibility of district heat generation units • Biomass can play an important role in substituting fossil fuels in district heat generation EU COORDINATED ENERGY POLICIES PREFERABLE • Coordinated RES-E and grid extension (including trade) • Coordinated capacity markets Source: TUD, AGH, KIT-IIP 9 TU Dresden Dominik Möst 08/10/19
Detecting environmental and social impacts in an early stage of development – from local to global issues ❶ Industry, Residential and Tertiary Sector ❷ Transport Sector ❸ Electricity and Heating Sector ❹ Environmental and Societal Impacts GENERAL • New challenge land occupation • Non-energetic resources gain in importance (e.g. lithium, cobalt, …) • Demand for natural gas slows the pace to minimize ozone depletion impact (and CO2 reduction), due to the high risk of leakage in the pipelines • Social risk levels show an increasing trend in all categories for 2050 scenarios (e.g. child labour, fair salaries, forced labors, workers rights) • Substitution of conventional fossils to biofuels not necessarily an improvement from environmental and social perspective • Bioethanol and biokerosene are main drivers for land use and eutrophication. Source: KIT-ITAS, KTH, AGH 10 TU Dresden Dominik Möst 08/10/19
Selected Publications TWO BOOK PUBLICATIONS RESULTING FROM THE REFLEX PROJECT • Book on “Technological learning in the transition to a low-carbon energy system” • Focus on experience curves and implementation in energy system models • Contributed volume published with Elsevier (end of 2019) • Book on “The Future European Energy System - Flexibility Options and Technological Progress” • Sectoral-based Reflex analyses and results considering technological learning and social as well as environmental life cycle assessment • Contributed volume published with Springer (end of 2019) LATEST PEER-REVIEWED JOURNAL CONTRIBUTIONS • Xu et al. (2019): An Environmental Assessment Framework for Energy System Analysis (EAFESA): The method and its application to the European energy system transformation. In: Journal of Cleaner Production, In Press. • Bubitz et al. (2019): A survey on electricity market design: Insights from theory and real-world implementations of capacity remuneration mechanisms. In: Energy Economics, pp 1059-1078. • Klingler, A.L. (2018): The effect of electric vehicles and heat pumps on the market potential of PV + battery systems. In: Energy 161, 1064 – 1073. 11 TU Dresden Dominik Möst 18/06/19
Thank you! Questions? Prof. Dr. Dominik Möst TU Dresden, Chair of Energy Economics dominik.moest@tu-dresden.de www.reflex-project.eu Brussels, 8th October 2019
You can also read