THE GLOBAL EV MARKET: WHERE TO FROM HERE? - COLIN MCKERRACHER - HEAD OF ADVANCED TRANSPORT BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE @COLINMCKERRACHE JULY 10 ...
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The global EV
market: where to
from here?
Colin McKerracher – Head of
Advanced Transport
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
@colinmckerrache
July 10, 2017
Analysis to help you understand
the future of energy
Solar Wind Power and Gas Carbon Energy Smart Storage Electric Mobility and Frontier Emerging
Utilities Markets & Technologies Vehicles Autonomous Power Technologies
Climate Driving
Americas Europe, Middle East Asia Pacific
& Africa
1 July 10, 2017
Global EV sales by region
2011-2017e, thousand units
YoY
growth +69% +40% +56% +55% +47%
Thousand units
1,200
1,018
We expect passenger EV
1,000
sales to be just over 1m in 46
2017
800 218
695 21
600 158 283
448 23
400 209
288 32 115
206 29
200 122 27 116 182 435
96 36 283
30 96
56 66 114
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
China Europe US Japan Canada South Korea RoW
Note: Includes highway-capable PHEV and BEV passenger vehicles only; RoW is “Rest of World”
2 July 10, 2017
Countries where EVs were above 1% of total passenger vehicle sales Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Marklines 3 July 10, 2017
BEV model availability, 2008-20
Land Rover Toyota Trumpchi Jaguar Tesla VW I.D.*
VW I.D. CROZZ
Defender RAV4 GS4 I-Pace pickup*
Mitsubishi eX BMW i5 Volvo 40.2*
SUVs/Trucks Tesla Tesla M-B EQ
VW Model Y* Model X
Chehejia Audi E-tron
M-B B-Class BYD e6 Budd-e NIO ES8* SUV* Quattro
Porsche E-sport
Renault DeZir Qianto Q50 Venturi Fetish Tesla Roadster Tesla Model S
Sports cars Tesla Roadster*
M-B SLS eDrive
Hyundai Ioniq Aston Martin GLM G4 NIO ES9 Audi R8 E-tron
RapidE Exagon Furtive
Mahindra eVerito
Geely Emgrand
NIO EVE
SAIC E-Lavida ChangAn LeEco LeSEE
Eado Tesla Model 3
Mullen 700e Lucid Air
Sedans CODA EV Audi E-tron
BAIC EU260 Sportback Faraday
Honda Clarity
JAC iEV4 Renault Fluence BYD e5 FF91
Kia Ray
Hyundai BMW i3
BlueOn M-B E-Cell VW e-Golf Chevy Bolt VW I.D.
Hatchbacks Chevy Spark
Honda Fit
Renault Zoe ZE Nissan Leaf 2*
Ford Focus Nissan Leaf
BMW mini e
Fiat 500e VW
Mitsubishi i-MiEV
Runabouts e-Up Seat Mii*
Mahindra e2o
2009
2008
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2011
Kandi Panda Smart Bollore
Renault Twizy ForTwo Bluesummer
Ford Transit VW e-Bulli
BYD T3
Nissan NV200 Tata Smith Edison
Small vans IRIS
Peugeot Partner ChangAn EM80
M-B Vito Renault Kangoo VW I.D. BUZZ
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350+
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Images various. Notes: Not exhaustive. (*) Range is speculated.
4 July 10, 2017Fuel economy regulations for US,
China and Europe
L/100 km
9.0
8.0
7.0
US
6.0
China: 4.9 US: 4.2 EU
5.0
EU: 4.1
4.0
China
3.0
2.0
1.0 Achieved fuel consumption Future standard
0.0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Note: The fuel economy targets have been normalised to the CAFE testing procedure.
US targets are for passenger cars only. Source: EPA, NHTSA, EU, ICCT
5 July 10, 2017China’s vehicle sales according to
the recent 2025 plan
Millions of 35
vehicles sold
30 7
28.0 2
24.6 0.5
23.5
22.0
19.3
27.5 28 28
23.4 24.3
22.0
19.3
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020e 2025e
Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) New Energy Vehicle (NEV)
Source: China Automotive Information Net, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
6 July 10, 2017BNEF 2016 battery pack price
survey results, 2010-2016
($ per kWh)
-20% -20% -7% -10% -35% -22%
1000
800
642
599
540
350
273
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Notes: This includes cells plus pack prices. For years where there were two surveys, the data in this chart is an average
for the year. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
7 July 10, 2017Short term EV sales forecast
EV % of new car sales
5%
Europe
4%
U.S.
3%
China
2%
Rest of
1% the
World
0%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
8 July 10, 2017Long term EV sales forecast to
2040
million cars per year Rest of
70 Europe
France
60
UK
50
40 Germany
30 Japan
20 Rest of
World
10 China
0 US
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
9 July 10, 2017Long term EV sales forecast to
2040
million cars per year
140 ICE
sales,
120 total
100
54%
80 43% EV
sales,
60 total
24%
40
8% EV %
20
1% 3% of new
0 sales
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
10 July 10, 2017Main factors that could derail global EV sales growth 11 July 10, 2017
For EV energy market impacts: think
small, not big
CHINA’S LOW SPEED EV MARKET
SHANDONG PROVINCE EXAMPLE
● Typically two-seater
● Top speed: 60km/h
● Cost: $3,000-7,000
● Unsubsidized, unregulated and growing very
rapidly
● Template for emerging economies?
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
-
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Times of India, Shandong Motor Vehicle Industrial Bureau, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Mitsubishi
12 July 10, 2017This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. No portion of this document may be photocopied,
reproduced, scanned into an electronic system or transmitted, forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of
Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable. We do not
guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such a
guarantee. Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features, and does not
necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Bloomberg Finance L.P., Bloomberg L.P. or any of their
affiliates ("Bloomberg"). The opinions presented are subject to change without notice. Bloomberg accepts no responsibility
for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed as an
offering of financial instruments, or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an investment strategy or
whether or not to "buy," "sell" or "hold" an investment.
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