The future of the automotive industry and its impact on the finished vehicle logistics - Michel Costes - HAROPA ...
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The future of
the automotive industry
and its impact on
the finished vehicle
logistics
Michel Costes Jamel Taganza
President Vice‐President http://www.inovev.com
michel.costes@inovev.com jamel.taganza@inovev.com
Worldwide production of light vehicles in 2020
Estimated 2020 production figures compared to 2019
Worldwide production:
77 millions units
‐15,1%
BRUS*:
1 540 431 units
North America: ‐15,2%
Europe + Turkey:
12 964 086 units
14 897 767 units
‐20% Asia:
‐20,8%
USA: 43 909 877 units
8 562 004 units ‐10,5%
‐18,7% China:
Africa:
22 936 586 units
South America: 891 985 units
2 243 432 units ‐18,4% ‐4,2%
‐31,2%
Source:
*BRUS = Byelorussia, Kazakhstan, Russia, Serbia, Ukraine
31/05/2021 2
2020 / 2030 ‐ Market
China: Sky is the limit?
A low motorisation rate
• less than 118 cars per 1 000 inhabitants in 2015, more than six times less than
in Europe and Japan and seven times than USA.
6%
• China has therefore still a big potential of growth 94%
• Can China’s car ownership rate (118 per 1 000 inhabitants) reach the level of for
example Russia (around 300 cars per 1 000 inhabitants) ?
- Will the government allow the market to grow? China population density
and distribution
- Will it be sustainable for China?
New development plan for the NEV industry from 2021 to 2035
• Nation's NEV sales are expected to account for 20 percent of overall new car
sales by 2025.
• Purely electric automobiles are set to account for the majority of new cars by
2035.
• Five strategic tasks－improving technological innovation, boosting industrial
ecosystems, advancing industrial integration and development, perfecting the
infrastructure system and deepening global cooperation. China's State Council
31/05/2021 3
2020 / 2030 ‐ Market
USA: Towards an automobile divide?
Buy American, build in America
• Being everywhere is not anymore the objective of US
carmakers.
• US will try to more and more localise the production of
cars on its soil.
• The subject arise under Trump administration
• It will continue during the Biden administration
A divide between EV friendly and EV reluctant states?
• As for many topics, US is often divided in two sides.
• The transition to an electrified market will be welcomed
differently, with more EV friendly states on the West
and East coasts and with more reluctance from the
middle states.
31/05/2021 4
2020 / 2030 ‐ Market
Europe: Towards a new mobility?
The European Commission is pushing to a shift towards cleaner and more
sustainable transport modes and alternatives to car use and ownership.
The trend in major big and medium European cities is therefore to a
decrease of cars.
Different projects are pushed by European countries, in the frame of the Low Emission Zone (LEZ) in Europe
CIVITAS initiative
• Clean and energy‐efficient vehicles
(EURO emission standards, CO2 emissions)
• Low Emission Zone (LEZ)
• Access regulation
• Congestion charging
• Limited Traffic Zones
• Cycling plan (cycling routes, parking facilities…)
• Development of Local public transport ‐ Accessibility (for senior
citizens and people with disabilities or reduced mobility…)
• Car and bike sharing
• Integration of transport modes/Intermodality
• Urban Freight/City logistics
31/05/2021 5
Production forecasts (all motorisations)
2019: 2030:
12 million units 12,5 million units
2019: 2030:
21,5 million units 27 million units
2019: 2030:
19 million units 18 million units
31/05/2021 6
Vehicle flow (passenger cars and light utility vehicles)
2019
2019:
192 000 units
2019:
100 000 units
2019:
1 054 000 units
2019:
470 000 units
2019:
257 000 units
2019:
369 000 units EU imports from (2019):
• Turkey: 1 044 247 units
• Japan: 762 483 units
• S.Korea: 539 048 units
31/05/2021 7
Vehicle flow (passenger cars and light utility vehicles)
2030
2030:
200 000 units
2030:
150 000 units
2030:
700 000 units
2030:
400 000 units
2030:
400 000 units
2030:
250 000 units
31/05/2021 8
Major technological mutations
New
Evolution of Evolution of carmakers
vehicles by vehicles usage from other
themselves
industries
31/05/2021 9
Major technological mutations
Dimensions of cars
(A-segment end, LSEV, SUVs)
Mass of cars
Evolution of
vehicles by
(EVs, SUVs..)
themselves
New diesel
come back?
Connected
ADAS
31/05/2021 10Major technological mutations
Shared vehicles
Multi-modal transport systems
Evolution of
vehicles usage
Changes in consumer
behaviour
with regard to automobile
ownership and mobility
31/05/2021 11Major technological mutations
Powerful technologically
and financially, from the world
of digital technologies
Foxconn and Fisker EV platform New
carmakers
from other
industries
Didi and BYD EV
SAIC and Alibaba JV wireless‐charging vehicles
31/05/2021 12The European market in 2030
The beginning of a market decline?
Post COVID: The market will slowly recover from the covid crisis,
but will hardly get back to the level of the period 2016 – 2019, which
was a quite exceptional cycle.
• The European market is mature (more than 1 car for 2
inhabitants).
• the market recovery is expected to be slow,
gradual and last over a long time.
• Europe in its foundations will still face major
challenges:
- Rise of China and big emerging countries.
- The uncertainty of the interactions (commercial and
political) between countries with a declining USA.
- Internal uncertainty (BREXIT).
- Finally, the perception of automobile (and
mobility) and its consequences on the economy and
life in society is evolving, both at the public
level (Europe, country and city) and at the individual
level.
31/05/2021 13Europe light vehicles (PC+LUV) energy market mix ‐ 2030
Inovev scenarios Analyst 2 Analyst 2 Analyst 2
2020 Analyst 1 Scenario #1 Scenario #2 Scenario #3
ev‐Conservative ev‐Pragmatic ev‐Enthusiastic
3% 2% 3% 3% 6%
3% 7% 7% 8% 9%
12%
17% 11% 10%
14%
25%
CNG+FCEV 18%
22%
PHEV 29%
BEV 94% 91% 85%
80%
Thermal 68% 65%
59%
47%
BEV
+ 6% 9% 15% 20% 32% 29% 32% 44%
PHEV
31/05/2021 14The European market in 2030
Will Chinese carmakers really come in Europe?
UK as an entry gate? Chinese carmakers global projects (2019 – 2025)
Or through new producing
European Eastern countries?
Will the Belt road have an impact?
31/05/2021 15The European market in 2030
Brand Plant Country Start
Fiat Kragujevac Serbia 2011
Great Wall Lovech Bulgaria 2012
Start of plants in Europe Mercedes Kecskemet Hungary 2012
after 2010 VW Wrzesnia Poland 2016
Land Rover Nitra Slovakia 2018
Tesla Berlin Germany 2022
BMW Debrecen Hungary 2024
Brand Plant Country End
Opel Antwerpen Belgium 2010
Lancia Termini Italy 2011
Saab Trollhattan Sweden 2011
End of plants in Europe Ford Southampton UK 2012
after 2010 Great Wall Lovech Bulgaria 2014
Honda Swindon UK 2021
Honda Gebze Turkey 2021
Jaguar Castle Bromwich UK 2025
Brand Plant Country Status
BMW Born Netherlands ?
Stellantis Mirafiori Italy ?
Stellantis Gliwice Poland ?
Stellantis Ellesmere Port UK ?
Ford Koln Germany ?
Questionable plants status Ford Valencia Spain ?
Suzuki Esztergom Hungary ?
Renault‐Nissan Flins France Re‐factory
Stellantis Rennes France ?
Daimler Hambach France ?
31/05/2021 16Postal address: Contacts:
34 rue Camille Pelletan Managing director
92300 Levallois‐Perret Michel Costes
France michel.costes@inovev.com
Sales and marketing
Stationary telephone: + 33‐952 96 06 68 Jamel Taganza
jamel.taganza@inovev.comYou can also read
