The economy under lockdown - Poland compared to the rest of Europe
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AUGUST 2020
WARSAW
The economy
ISBN 978-83-66306-91-2
under lockdown
Poland compared to the rest of EuropeWarsaw, August 2020
Authors: Katarzyna Dębkowska, Urszula Kłosiewicz-Górecka, Paula Kukołowicz,
Anna Szymańska, Piotr Ważniewski, Katarzyna Zybertowicz
Editing: Dariusz Sielski
Graphic design: Anna Olczak
Graphic collaboration: Liliana Gałązka, Tomasz Gałązka, Joanna Cisek
Text and graphic composition: Sławomir Jarząbek
Polish Economic Institute
Al. Jerozolimskie 87
02-001 Warsaw, Poland
© Copyright by Polish Economic Institute
ISBN 978-83-66306-91-23
Table of contents
Key numbers on the state of the Polish economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Key numbers on the position of Polish enterprises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Key findings from business surveys . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Freezing and unfreezing the economy in Poland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Stages of freezing the economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Stages of unfreezing the economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Assistance in the form of anti-crisis shields . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Losses in the real economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Industrial production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Retail trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
Changes in the labour market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
Enterprises locked down – the survey findings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
The pandemic as perceived by Polish undertakings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Unfreezing of the economy as seen by undertakings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
The market situation of enterprises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
Liquidity of enterprises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
Subjective assessments of liquidity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
Liquidity: payments backlog . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
Changes in employment in the period of freezing and unfreezing
the economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
Personnel changes planned and made . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
Employee remuneration changes planned and made . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
Changes in employment and salaries and companies’ market
and financial situation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .474 Table of contents
Business sentiment and the key indicators of the economic
situation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
GDP decrease and unemployment increase forecasts for Poland
for 2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
List of diagrams, tables and charts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
Annex . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 625
Key numbers on the state
of the Polish economy
a decrease in the value of industrial
-23.7 per cent production in April against February;
-4.3 per cent – the respective decrease in
June against February 2020
-15.2 per cent
a fall in retail trade at constant prices in April
against February; +5.6 per cent – an increase
in retail trade in June against February 2020
6.1 per cent the registered unemployment rate in June
2020
1,027,000
the number of unemployed persons
registered at labour offices in late June
2020
106,600
an increase in the number of registered
unemployed persons in June against
February 2020
-1.2 per cent
a decline in the average gross monthly
wage in the non-financial corporations
sector in June against February 20206
Key numbers on the position of
Polish enterprises
3/4 of in the initial lock-down period – were of the
operation that recovery from the pandemic
enterprises would not exceed one year
-36.1
the level of the Business Sentiment Index (BSI)
noted in early April, whereas +9.9 was the level
of the BSI noted in early July
57 per cent
of firms recorded a fall in sales in early April
against February, whereas 36 per cent noted
a decline in sales in early July against June
6 per cent
of firms noted an increase in sales in early April
against February, whereas 22 per cent noted
a rise in early July against June
62 per cent
of firms noted a decrease in the number of new
orders in early April, whereas 21 per cent noted
a fall in the number of new orders in early July
of firms noted a rise in the number of new orders
6 per cent in early April, whereas 33 per cent noted an
increase in the number of new orders in early
JulyKey numbers on the position of Polish enterprises
7
of firms assessed their liquidity as sufficient to
26 per cent survive a period of more than 3 months in early
April; in early July, such firms were as many as
60 per cent
28 per cent
of firms planned employment cuts in early April,
whereas actual reductions in March and April
were performed by 12 per cent of firms
of firms planned to maintain employment in
62 per cent early April, whereas the share of firms having
maintained employment in March and April was
86 per cent
of firms planned to cut employment in late
12 per cent April, whereas in May actual reductions in
employment were implemented by 10 per cent
of firms
50 per cent
of firms planned to reduce salaries and wages
in early April, whereas 12 per cent planned pay
cuts in early July8
Key findings from business surveys
B
usiness surveys on the situation of sentiment for production enterprises
Polish enterprises conducted for could be seen in May, whereas for com-
Polish Economic Institute (PEI) and mercial entities – as late as June.
the Polish Development Fund (Polski Fundusz → It is possible to observe a close relation-
Rozwoju - PFR) were carried out in the period ship between changes noted in macro-
from early April to early July 2020 in six survey economic indicators and the Business
measurements (six waves). Comparing the sur- Sentiment Index. In particular, there was
vey findings obtained in the early lock-down pe- a positive and strong correlation between
riod, in particular phases of the freezing and un- the BSI level and changes (month-on-
freezing of the economy and the introduction of month) in industrial production sold, retail
anti-crisis shields allows to describe changes in trade and new orders in industry.
business sentiment as well as in the market and → The value of sales in the surveyed enter-
financial situation of firms. prises – the worst situation was observed
→ The Business Sentiment Index (BSI) val- in late April when more than two-thirds of
ues determined for each of the six survey firms noted decreases in sales, whereas
waves clearly show an improvement in merely 7 per cent – increases on the pre-
business sentiment in the period covered; vious month. In May, due to the unfreez-
in particular, a marked change in business ing of the economy and the implementa-
sentiment could be observed from mid- tion of subsequent anti-crisis shields, the
May when further stages of unfreezing the situation began to improve; in late May,
economy allowed undertakings to restore 43 per cent of firms declared a fall in sales,
economic activities. The improvement in whereas 20 per cent – an increase. Early
business sentiment was also closely relat- July witnessed further improvement. The
ed to the aid measures introduced by the share of entities indicating decreases in
Polish government in the form of anti-crisis sales dropped to 36 per cent, whereas it
shields and the Financial Shield. Further was 57 per cent in early April.
changes and extensions of the adopted → Subjective assessments of liquid-
solutions allowed a greater number of en- ity – the worst situation was observed in
terprises to benefit from real assistance, mid- and late April when 1 out of 10 firms
which translated into better self-assess- declared having no financial reserves,
ments of the business situation in subse- whereas only 4 out of 10 estimated to
quent survey waves. have funds sufficient for more than 3
→ The BSI shows that large and medium- months. In late May, only 5 per cent of
sized undertakings have coped with firms assessed that they had no funds,
the crisis better than small and micro- whereas the proportion of those believ-
enterprises. In the case of larger firms, ing to be able to survive for a period ex-
the BSI indicated better business senti- ceeding 3 months rose to 54 per cent.
ment for large undertakings in each of the The worst self-assessments of the finan-
survey waves. A marked improvement in cial situation were declared by micro- andKey findings from business surveys
9
small enterprises, whereas large entities shields, comprising financial and liquidity
were the most optimistic. instruments subject to efforts by enterpris-
→ Planned personnel changes – in subse- es to maintain employment.
quent survey waves, there was a steady → Planned employee remuneration chang-
decline in the share of firms planning to es – in early April, half of undertakings
cut employment – from 28 per cent in early planned pay cuts, but in early July such
April to 6 per cent in early July. In late May, plans were only expressed by 12 per cent
no large firm was planning to reduce em- of entities. Plans of enterprises with regard
ployment, although in the first wave such to salaries and wages suggest that the la-
measures were indicated by as many as bour market situation starts to normalise;
20 per cent of large enterprises. The per- in early July 2020, for the first time from
centage of entities planning employment the outbreak of the pandemic, more firms
reductions could be pushed down by the were planning pay rises (14 per cent) than
introduction of solutions under anti-crisis pay cuts (12 per cent).10
Introduction
T
he COVID-19 pandemic has signifi- Although historical at present, that knowledge
cantly affected the economic and so- may prove a valuable resource in designing eco-
cial situation of all European countries. nomic policy for the anticipated next wave of the
Restrictions introduced by the governments pandemic.
of particular countries in order to contain the This report illustrates how the economic
spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus led to the freez- situation of Polish enterprises changed in the
ing of a major share of economic activities. The period of freezing and unfreezing the economy.
restrictions imposed resulted in a collapse of It also provides macroeconomic data on the
production activities of enterprises, a steep fall economic situation of Poland and other Euro-
in consumption and in various trade activities, pean countries in order to outline a broader
the disruption of global supply chains and dwin- context of the developments under analysis.
dling investments. Showing the subjective perception of the posi-
As early as the onset of the crisis, it be- tion of undertakings in the first months of the
came obvious that economic losses caused by pandemic against the backdrop of objective in-
the pandemic and the freezing of the of austerity dicators of Poland’s economic situation allows
policy preventing the economy from quickly re- to gain insights into how enterprises responded
turning to the economic growth path (Kawalec, at essential times of introducing and lifting lock-
Pytlarczyk, Kamiński, 2020). As early as the stage down measures.
of introducing anti-epidemic restrictions, most The report is composed of three parts. The
economists believed that only firm, rapid and first part describes particular stages of freez-
far-reaching State intervention policies could ing and unfreezing the Polish economy as well
protect economies from collapsing and subse- as the support measures taken by the Polish
quent years of stagnation (Kapoor, Buiter, 2020). government with regard to the security of work-
The necessity to take such measures as advo- ers, the financing of enterprises, health care,
cated by economists largely resulted from the strengthening the financial system and public
lack of reliable knowledge about how the econ- investment programmes. The second part of the
omy would respond to such imposed restric- report discusses changes observed in the Polish
tions in the initial period following their introduc- economy in the period of introducing and lifting
tion. Potential overreaction – acting too soon at lock-down measures. Those developments are
excessive costs – was seen as a lesser evil than shown through indicators concerning industrial
measures taken too late and inadequate. production, retail trade, the unemployment rate
After lifting the majority of anti-epidemic and forecasts of changes in gross domestic
restrictions imposed in March and April by most product in the current year.
European governments, a number of countries Lastly, the third part of the report presents
have noted another rise in the number of infec- the findings from surveys of Polish enterprises
tions, possibly indicating a second wave of the jointly conducted by the Polish Economic In-
epidemic. We are now aware of how the econ- stitute (PEI) and the Polish Development Fund
omy – consumers and businesses – respond- (Polski Fundusz Rozwoju – PFR) in the form of six
ed to restrictions introduced and abolished. waves, carried out every two weeks from theIntroduction
11
beginning of April to the beginning of July 2020. economy. Every survey concerned a represent-
By analysing the survey results, we captured ative sample of 400 enterprises of varying size
changes in the sentiment, behaviour, assess- (micro-, small, medium-sized and large enter-
ments and decisions of undertakings dur- prises) and from different economic sectors
ing both freezing and unfreezing the Polish (trade, services, production).12
Freezing and unfreezing
the economy in Poland
T
he COVID-19 pandemic reached Po- development stage of the pandemic Poland de-
land relatively late. By 4 March 2020, cided to introduce anti-epidemic restrictions
the date of recording the first infec- on a number of areas of social and economic
tion with the SARS-CoV-2 virus in Poland, the life. The imposed restrictions, aimed to slow
disease had already spread to many European down the spread of the disease, resulted in lim-
countries. The Czech Republic had registered itations on the possibility to freely pursue eco-
5 infections, Germany – 196, Spain – 151 (WHO, nomic activities and to satisfy the consumption
2020). Just as many other countries, at an early needs of citizens.
Stages of freezing the economy
Restrictions were introduced gradually Further restrictions, introduced on
from mid-March 2020. Initially, all public events 20–25 March, consisted in the imposition of
were cancelled (as announced on 10 March); even greater limitations on trade. The number
next (12 March), the functioning of nurseries, of persons simultaneously allowed at shops
pre-schools and schools was suspended. On was limited. Furthermore, movement restric-
14 March, shops were closed at large shop- tions were introduced (except for the purpose of
ping centres (with the exception of pharmacies, satisfying basic subsistence needs), as well as
grocery stores and establishments selling de- the social distancing requirement. All entertain-
tergents and hygiene products), the provision ment services were fully suspended (clubs and
of food- and beverage-serving services was discotheques were closed). The suspension of
banned at the premises (only take-away sales activities concerned travel agencies and other
were allowed); public events and all collective service and commercial establishments operat-
forms of culture, sport and entertainment were ing at shopping centres with an area exceeding
prohibited. Limits were also introduced on the 2,000 m2. The provision of medical, treatment
number of participants in church services (up to and rehabilitation services was limited, with
50 persons) and the activities of sanatoriums the exception of activities related to combat-
were suspended. On 15 March 2020, the State ing COVID-19. The number of persons allowed
border was closed for foreign nationals. The to participate in church services was drastically
Poles could return to Poland from foreign coun- reduced (to 5 persons), as well as that of permit-
tries, but they were obliged to be in quarantine ted passengers using public transport (a maxi-
for a period of 14 days. International rail and mum of half of the number of seats in a vehicle).
air passenger transport was suspended; only Early April saw the introduction of fur-
goods could be carried to Poland without major ther restrictions, in both trade and social life.
disruptions. On 1 April, the provision of hotel services wasFreezing and unfreezing the economy in Poland
13
radically limited, hairdressing and beauty care a distance of two metres between individuals.
establishments were temporarily closed; tem- Children under 13 years of age were banned
porary closures also concerned large do-it-your- from leaving their homes. It was prohibited to
self retail stores at weekends, whereas shops use parks, boulevards, forests or any open-air
were required to introduce ‘shopping hours for forms of entertainment. An obligation was intro-
seniors’. Another requirement was to maintain duced to wear face masks in public spaces.
Stages of unfreezing the economy
The unfreezing of the economy was per- forms I to III at primary schools. For many pub-
formed in a similar manner – by stages. The first lic buildings and establishments, the limits on
restrictions were relaxed on 20 April 2020, the number of persons present were increased.
which involved increasing the limit of shop- At the following stage of unfreezing
pers, opening forests and parks, allowing chil- (31 May to 13 June), bars and hotel restaurants
dren under 13 years of age to go out unattended were opened, the limits on the number of shop-
and raising the limit of participants in church pers were eliminated; it was also allowed to
services. organise open-air and sports events for a maxi-
The following stage of unfreezing took mum of 150 persons. The limits of the number
place in early May. Shopping centres were of persons at religious sites were lifted. It was
opened (with a limit on the number of persons permitted to open (with certain restrictions)
and a ban on consumption at the premises), ac- theatres and cinemas as well as other cultural,
commodation and tourism establishments were sports, recreation and leisure facilities; it was
allowed to operate again, as well as cultural es- allowed to organise weddings; the requirement
tablishments such as museums and libraries. It of wearing face masks outdoors, at work and
was possible to provide child care services at at restaurants was abolished, subject to social
nurseries and pre-schools. Making partial use of distancing.
sports facilities was allowed. For sanitary reasons (as at 17 July 2020),
Another stage (18–25 May) was to lift the certain restrictions remain in force. Those in-
ban on the operation of hairdressing and beauty clude: maintaining a minimum distance of
care establishments, to allow the provision of 1.5 metres between individuals and an obliga-
food- and beverage-serving services with con- tion to cover the mouth and nose indoors in
sumption at the premises, whereas local gov- public spaces; in many public buildings and fa-
ernments were permitted to render child care cilities, the hand disinfection requirement con-
services at educational establishments for tinues to apply.12–15 March
20–25 March
1 April
1st business survey wave 1–3 April
16 April
2nd business survey wave 15–17 April
20 April
3rd business survey wave 28–30 April
4–6 May
4th business survey wave 12–14 May
18–25 May
5th business survey wave 26–29 May
↘ Diagram 1. Freezing and unfreezing of the Polish economy and the dates of surveys of enterprises in the form of six waves
31 May – 22 June
6th business survey wave 1–3 July
Freezing and unfreezing the economy in Poland
1412–15 March
20–25 March
1 April
1st business survey wave 1–3 April
16 April
2nd business survey wave 15–17 April
20 April
3rd business survey wave 28–30 April
4–6 May
4th business survey wave 12–14 May
18–25 May
5th business survey wave 26–29 May
31 May – 22 June
6th business survey wave 1–3 July
Freezing and unfreezing the economy in Poland
1516
Legend:
Freezing and unfreezing the economy in Poland
State borders Churches
International rail passenger transport Movement
International air passenger transport Public transport
Trade Accommodation
Food- and beverage-serving services Rehabilitation and massage services
Fairs, conferences, public events Hairdressing and beauty care
Cinemas Wearing gloves
Gyms, fitness clubs Parks, boulevards, squares, forests
Casinos Social distancing
Libraries, museums, archives Covering faces
Schools, pre-schools and nurseries Polish Football League (Ekstraklasa)
Sanatoriums Sports activities, sports practice
Source: prepared by the PEI.17
Assistance in the form
of anti-crisis shields
A
s part of measures mitigating the introduced in the formula of five pillars: job pro-
economic crisis caused by the tection and the security of workers; the financ-
COVID-19 pandemic, the government ing of undertakings; health care; strengthen-
introduced a package of extraordinary solu- ing the financial system and public investment
tions referred to as anti-crisis shields. Propos- (Table 1). The solutions of Shield 1 entered into
als oriented towards the safety of citizens were force on 1 April 2020.
↘ Table 1. Solutions introduced in the five pillars of the first anti-crisis shield
Pillar Description of measures
I Security of In statutorily defined cases, undertakings receive aid for remuneration paid
workers to employees; the State covers social security contributions payable by the
employer; self-employed persons were granted one-time gross allowances of
PLN 2,080; the period of the payment of the child care allowance to the par-
ents of children under 8 years of age was extended; the possibility of suspend-
ing the repayment of loans was introduced
II Financing of A number of statutorily regulated facilities related to running a business were
enterprises introduced: one-time loans of PLN 5,000 from the Labour Fund for micro-firms;
loans with de minimis guarantee of up to PLN 3.5 million for MSMEs; the possi-
bility to obtain from the PFR Investment fund an equity increase or financing
in the form of bonds for medium-sized and large firms; more favourable rules
for deducting losses in tax returns; the exemption of self-employed persons
from the payment of amounts owed to public authorities; longer time limits for
the fulfilment of reporting obligations; postponing the new VAT matrix to 1 July
2020; the allocation of PLN 1.7 billion to the re-financing of current leases for
transport firms; ‘loan holidays’ for transport firms; the ‘New Chance Policy’
programme
III Health care Support – especially for areas in the front line of the fight against COVID-19 –
of PLN ca. 7,5 billion PLN; the co-financing of the extension of infrastructure
and digitisation of the health care system
IV Strengthening Special regulatory packages of the Polish Financial Supervision Authority and
of the financial the Ministry of Finance, e.g. reducing capital buffers and the liquidity package
system of the NBP comprising a decrease in interest rates
V Public New public contracts aimed at improving public infrastructure, modernising
investment schools and hospitals, the digitisation of major institutions, energy transition,
programme the environmental protection; the creation of the Public Investment Fund
(PLN 30 billion).
Source: https://www.gov.pl/web/tarczaantykryzysowa [access: 20.7.2020].18 Assistance in the form of anti-crisis shields
Aid to undertakings granted as part of the 2020 amending certain other acts with regard
fight against the pandemic was introduced by to protective measures in connection with the
stages, in the form of five shields. spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus (Journal of Laws
2020, Item 875), effective from 16 May 2020.
Shield 1.0 The main changes in Shield 3.0 included the fol-
The aid package oriented towards sup- lowing: extending the possibility to apply for an
porting Polish firms and workers in the fight exemption from the payment of social security
against the economic effects of the epidemic, contributions to undertakings whose revenue
introduced under provisions such as the Act exceeded 300 per cent of the projected aver-
of 31 March 2020 amending the act on special age monthly wage, but was lower than PLN
solutions related to preventing, counteracting 7,000, with registered economic activities before
and combating COVID-19, other infectious dis- 1 April 2020; the possibility to apply for a stop-
eases and crisis situations caused by them, and page benefit for undertakings set up before
certain other acts (Journal of Laws 2020, Item 1 April 2020; the possibility to obtain a micro-
568) and the Act of 31 March 2020 amending the loan for undertakings set up before 1 April 2020.
act on the system of development institutions
(Journal of Laws 2020, Item 569). The provisions Shield 4.0
entered into force on 1 April 2020. Further changes, referred to as Shield 4.0,
were introduced under the Act of 19 June 2020
Shield 2.0 on aid for interest rates on bank loans granted
It entered into force in mid-April 2020 un- to undertakings affected by COVID-19 and on
der the Act of 16 April 2020 on special support a simplified arrangement approval procedure
instruments in connection with the spread of the in connection with the occurrence of COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2 virus (Journal of Laws 2020, Item (Journal of Laws 2020, Item 1086). The main
695). Among other things, the Shield extended objectives: changes in aid for interest rates on
the scope of aid: support also for enterprises bank loans granted for the provision of liquidity
set up between 1 February and 1 April 2020; the to undertakings affected by COVID-19; propos-
possibility to receive a stoppage benefit also for als for amendments to labour law; an amount of
those pursuing non-agricultural economic ac- over PLN 560 million allocated to aid for interest
tivities and employed under civil contracts; the on loans to firms in difficulty due to COVID-19;
abolition of the condition for undertakings apply- support for local governments; temporary pro-
ing for a stoppage benefit to earn revenue below tection for Polish firms from being acquired by
300 per cent of the average monthly wage from non-EU investors.
the previous quarter; the exemption from the
payment of social security contributions also for Financial Shield
small enterprises; the elimination of the require- A special aid package for business, cover-
ment to maintain employment in the period after ing partially non-repayable subsidies for micro-,
the end of co-financing; extending the possibility small, medium-sized and large firms. The Shield
to receive micro-loans to self-employed persons. is financed from the Polish Development Fund.
It is intended to assist firms in maintaining
Shield 3.0 financial continuity in the period of epidem-
Another package of amendments and ad- ic COVID-19. Undertakings may receive up to
ditions was introduced under the Act of 14 May 75 per cent of non-repayable aid, provided thatAssistance in the form of anti-crisis shields
19
they continue to operate and maintain average 2020 345,905 companies employing 3,116,793
employment for 12 months from obtaining the people benefitted from its financing. The amount
support. The financial shield also comprises of money that was transferred to companies
support in the amount of PLN 100 billion, half of through banks is PLN 60.5 billion, of which
which is intended for small and medium-sized PLN 18.7 billion was transferred to micro-enter-
firms, whereas for micro- and large enterprises – prises while PLN 41.8 billion to small and me-
PLN 25 billion for each group. The receipt of ap- dium companies. The total amount of financial
plications from MSMEs started in late April 2020 assistance that is planned to be spent within the
and on 9 June the Polish Development Fund be- Financial Shield is PLN 100 billion (PFR, 2020).
gan receiving applications under the financial At the same time the financial assistance
shield from large enterprises. that was launched by 6 July 2020 within con-
It is difficult to precisely estimate the total secutive Shield schemes consisted of co-fi-
amount of money that was transferred – in the nancing salaries of 2.4 million employees in
form of state aid – by the government to the mar- the amount of PLN 9.8 billion, granting loans
ket. The ING Bank estimates that by the begin- to micro companies worth of PLN 8.4 billion,
ning of August 2020 its value was approaching financing 2.09 million stoppage benefits val-
PLN 100 billion with the aim of transferring the ued at PLN 4.1 billion as well as exemption of
total of PLN 132 billion. According to the bank’s companies from their social insurance con-
economists, the aid is going to reduce the drop tributions worth of PLN 16.6 billion (MRPiPS,
of Poland’s GDP by around 2-3 percentage points. 2020). The extended program of loans guaran-
Polish Development Fund, the operator of tees de minimis can be quoted as another field
the Financial Shield, informs that by 3 August of public aid scheme.20
Losses in the real economy
M
arch was the month for Poland as establishments. Those restrictions significant-
well as for other European coun- ly affected the supply side of the economy.
tries to introduce the first anti- In contrast, the ban on movement and travel
epidemic restrictions. In Poland, the initial re- – with the exception of situations of satisfying
strictions concerned the freedom of pursuing basic subsistence needs – introduced in late
economic activities. In mid-March, the func- March had adverse effects on the demand side
tioning of educational establishments was of the economy.
suspended, which affected the availability of The limitations imposed and the level of
labour. their restrictiveness corresponded to the dy-
Other restrictions introduced in the sec- namics of indicators reflecting the state of the
ond half of March and in early April also had sig- Polish economy. Considerable decreases in
nificant consequences to the economy. Those the main areas were noted as early as March.
limitations primarily concerned the provision But the steepest fall in macroeconomic indi-
of services and trade. Among other things, cators was not observed until the collection
public events were cancelled, a major share of data for April – the month with the great-
of shops at shopping centres were closed, est scope and degree of applicable restric-
limits were introduced with regard to the num- tions. The lifting of anti-epidemic restrictions
ber of shoppers simultaneously allowed at the at the turn of April and May brought about im-
premises, closures covered businesses ren- provements in all the economic indicators in
dering personal services – e.g. hairdressing question.
Industrial production
The pandemic contributed to closing in the economy as a whole in the following
a number of factories, including plants owned months.
by multinational enterprises, which in turn In March 2020 – as compared to February
drove down the overall dynamics of indus- – industrial production in all European Union
trial production in Europe. Despite the long- Member States fell by 10.8 per cent (Chart 1).
observed upward trend of employment in The decline was more abrupt in April when – in
the service sectors of advanced economies, relation to the previous month – it was already
industry still plays a major role in the econo- 17.3 per cent, after calendar and seasonal ad-
my as a whole. The growth rate of industrial justments. As estimated by Eurostat, those
production is a vital indicator determining not were the most significant monthly decreases
only decisions of potential investors, but also from the beginning of measurements, markedly
allowing to forecast the pace of a country’s exceeding the falls by 3 to 4 per cent observed
economic development. Data on the situation in late 2008 and in early 2009 during the finan-
in industry in a month help predict activity cial crisis.Losses in the real economy
21
↘ Chart 1. Dynamics of production sold in industry (excluding construction) in selected European
Union Member States (percentage change on the previous month)
50
42.1
40
30
-10.8 -18.2 19.6
15.1
20 13.9 15.6
12.5
9.7
10
0
-10 -7.4
-10.9 -10.4 11.4
-13.5 -10.7
-20 -20.2 -21.1
-20.0 -20.5 -23.2
-22.8
-30 -28.4 -27.2 -30.5
-40
March 2020 April 2020 May 2020
Italy Slovakia Spain Czech Republic Germany Hungary Poland EU-27
Note: data after seasonal and calendar adjustments.
Source: prepared by the PEI on the basis of Eurostat data.
In comparison with the EU average, in vehicles), Spain (-452,000 vehicles) and France
March the decline observed in Poland was (-278,400 vehicles). As regards Central and
less significant than in the EU (7.4 per cent), Eastern European countries, such losses were
whereas it was more abrupt in April (21.1 per less significant (the Czech Republic: -155,000
cent). In April, the fall in industrial produc- vehicles, Slovakia: -115,000 vehicles, Poland:
tion sold appeared to be particularly steep -102,000 vehicles, Hungary: -52,000 vehicles).
in Central and Eastern European countries. In the countries in question, the automotive
It partially stemmed from the considerable industry is largely oriented towards supply-
share of automotive production in the eco- ing semi-finished products and accessories
nomic structure in the countries concerned. to factories located in other parts of Europe
According to Eurostat, before the pandemic (Dębkowska et al., 2019). The decreases were
that industry accounted for 32 per cent of primarily caused by mandatory shut-downs on
all industrial production in Slovakia, for 24 production plants, which resulted in produc-
per cent of output in the Czech Republic and tion stoppages of 22 days (Hungary) to 41 days
Hungary and for 10 per cent of Poland’s pro- (Italy and the United Kingdom) (ACEA, 2020) as
duction. In the lock-down period, production well as in a collapse in demand for cars in April
stoppages cost the European Union and the when the total number of new registrations of
United Kingdom more than 2.44 million motor commercial vehicles in the EU Member States
vehicles not manufactured. The most serious dropped by 67 per cent (Marki w pandemicznym
losses affected factories in Germany (-616,000 świecie…, 2020).22 Losses in the real economy
Retail trade
The situation caused by the pandemic and cent in April. The lifting of anti-epidemic limita-
the economic lock-down had a major impact on tions at the turn of April and May led to a bounce-
the consumer activity of citizens. Three types back in the value of retail trade; in May, the Eu-
of factors pushed down aggregate consumer ropean Union Member States noted a rise by
demand. One group included restrictions on 16.4 per cent, whereas Poland – by 10.1 per cent
free movement and shopping applicable in against April (Chart 2). As a result, in May the value
individual countries. A number of European of retail trade in the European Union represented
countries – including Poland in the second half 93.0 per cent of that from February, whereas the
of March – prohibited movement and travel in respective share for Poland was 94.5 per cent.
situations other than commuting and satisfy- The decreases in sales strongly varied
ing basic subsistence needs. No lesser role between Member States; in both March and
was played by factors of a psychological na- April, the steepest drops were observed in
ture, e.g. concerns over the likelihood of be- Italy and Spain, i.e. the countries whose pop-
coming infected in public spaces. In a survey ulations were hit the hardest by the disease1.
conducted by Kantar in mid-March (Marki w pan- In March, the fall was 23 per cent for Italy
demicznym świecie…, 2020), 65 per cent of the re- and 14.8 per cent for Spain, whereas in April
sponding Poles indicated that they were afraid – 12.1 per cent for Italy and 19.2 per cent for
of becoming infected with the virus, regard- Spain. Another country to note a strong con-
less of any precautions taken. Other material traction in retail trade in April was Hungary
considerations included anticipated negative (down by 13.8 per cent).
economic implications of the pandemic and The decreases in sales noted in March and
lock-down measures which many people linked April widely varied between product categories.
with a deteriorated financial situation of their The most significant falls concerned clothing
households. and footwear (by 54.2 per cent in March and
All those factors combined were reflected 51.5 per cent in April), followed by electronic and
in data concerning the dynamics of retail trade computer products (26.7 per cent in March and
in the European Union Member States. In the 20.2 per cent in April) – i.e. product categories
27 Member States of the Community, the restric- with largely elastic demand. At the same time,
tions introduced in March – as compared to the the least significant drops affected food prod-
previous month – drove down retail trade (ex- ucts whose sales rose in March against February
cluding the sale of motor vehicles, motorcycles by 5.9 per cent, as a result of ‘stock-piling’ shop-
and parts thereof) by 9.8 per cent and by further ping before the imminent pandemic, and subse-
11.4 per cent in April. In Poland, the decrease was quently fell by 6.0 per cent in April as compared
less abrupt: by 7.1 per cent in March and 7.7 per to March (Chart 3).
1
According to data from 20 July 2020, Italy diagnosed nearly 244,434 cases of COVID-19, whereas Spain – slightly
over 265,000. Italy recorded more than 35,000 deaths due to COVID-19, whereas Spain – 28,457. The figures were
worse than in other EU Member States (WHO, 2020).Losses in the real economy
23
↘ Chart 2. Dynamics of retail trade in selected European Union Member States
(percentage change on the previous month)
30 16.4
25.4
25
18.0
20
11.5 13.9
15
10.1
10 5.6 6.1
5
0 -0.9
-2.6 -1.9
-5 -5.3
-7.1 -7.7 -6.5
-10 -8.9
-10.5
-12.1
-15 -14.8 -13.8
-9.8 -11.4
-20 -19.2
-23.0
-25
March 2020 April 2020 May 2020
Italy Spain Czech Republic Poland Slovakia Germany Hungary EU-27
Note: data excluding the sale of motor vehicles, motorcycles and parts thereof; data after seasonal and calendar
adjustments.
Source: prepared by the PEI on the basis of Eurostat data.
↘ Chart 3. Dynamics of retail trade in the EU Member States for selected product categories
(percentage change on the previous month)
150 130.7
120
90 -9.8 -11.4
60
24.4 28.8
30 19.2
5.9 2.1
0
-14.0 -10.9 -6.0
-30 -26.7 -24.9 -20.2 -16.7
-60 -54.2 -51.5 16.4
-90
March 2020 April 2020 May 2020
Clothing and footwear Computers, software, telecommunications equipment
Information and communication equipment, other household goods and domestic appliances
(excluding textiles), cultural and recreation goods sold in specialised stores
Non-food products (including fuels) Food products Retail trade, total (excluding automotive products)
Note: data after seasonal and calendar adjustments
Source: prepared by the PEI on the basis of Eurostat data.24 Losses in the real economy
In the period of the applicability of lock- 2.3 per cent, whereas April – by 12.5 per cent.
down measures, we observed strong differen- Poland ranked among the countries where the
tiation of brick-and-mortar and on-line sales. In value of on-line sales augmented significantly
the first place, it resulted from the restrictions above the EU growth rate – in March by 8.7 per
imposed on permitted conditions of retail sale cent against February and in April by 23.9 per
or from a ban on the operation of certain shops. cent as compared to March. In Poland, on-line
The overall value of retail trade showed the sales showed robust growth even before the
most significant falls – on the previous month – pandemic – in comparison with the previous
in April by 11.4 per cent in the EU and 7.7 per cent month, the value of sales went up by 9.7 per cent
in Poland (Chart 4). In contrast, along with the in January and by 8.6 per cent February. Both in
unfreezing of economies, May witnessed a rise Poland and in the other EU Member States fluc-
by 16.4 per cent in the EU and 10,1 per cent in tuations in sales became less differentiated in
Poland. Very different dynamics characterised May – on-line sales slowed down in the Euro-
online and distance sales. In the Communi- pean Union (up by 4.7 per cent) and dropped in
ty’s Member States, March saw an increase by Poland (by 12.3 per cent on the previous month).
↘ Chart 4. Retail trade in the European Union Member States and in Poland
(percentage change on the previous month)
25 23.9
20
16.4
15 12.5
8.7 10.1
10
4.7
5 2.3
0
-5
-7.1 -7.7
-10 -9.8
-11.4 -12.3
-15
March 2020 April 2020 May 2020
Retail trade in the EU, total Retail trade in Poland, total
On-line and distance sales in the EU On-line and distance sales in Poland
Note: data after seasonal and calendar adjustments
Source: prepared by the PEI on the basis of Eurostat data.
Changes in the selling methods and distri- data collected and made available by Google
bution channels observed in the period of the (2020). In the week of the introduction of the
pandemic are reflected in the consumer mobility first restrictions (9–15 March 2020), PolandLosses in the real economy
25
experienced a dramatic fall in traffic in places period preceding the pandemic. In the initial
related to trade and entertainment – restau- lock-down period, a similar downward trend
rants, coffee shops, shopping centres, theme concerned the amount of time spent at estab-
parks, museums, libraries and cinemas. As lishments classified as grocery stores, pharma-
compared to the reference period2, i.e. that be- cies, drug stores, etc. But the fall in traffic was
fore the pandemic, the number and duration less drastic, by 43 per cent as at 15 March. In
of visits to such places fell by 70 per cent and the post-Easter period, after 20 April, traffic at
the downward trend continued until the end of grocery stores, pharmacies and drug stores
April. Early May and the related phasing out of steadily increased, catching up in percentage
restrictions saw a gradual increase in traffic terms with the pre-pandemic level, as a result
at commercial and entertainment facilities, of which traffic in the category of establishment
as a result of which traffic in that category of in question was 1.4 per cent lower in the week
establishments was 8 per cent lower in the of 17 to 23 June than in the pre-pandemic period
week of 17 to 23 June in comparison with the (Chart 5).
↘ Chart 5. Dynamics of traffic at retail establishments in the period of freezing
and unfreezing the economy
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100
15.02.2020
22.02.2020
29.02.2020
07.03.2020
14.03.2020
21.03.2020
28.03.2020
04.04.2020
11.04.2020
18.04.2020
25.04.2020
02.05.2020
09.05.2020
16.05.2020
23.05.2020
30.05.2020
06.06.2020
13.06.2020
20.06.2020
Retail and recreation Grocery and pharmacy
Source: prepared by the PEI on the basis of: Google (2020).
2
The reference value is the median for the relevant day of the week in the five-week period from 3 January to
6 February 2020.26 Losses in the real economy
The pandemic and the related restrictions 21 June 2020 the number of visits of the Poles to
on movement and gatherings have changed discount stores remained at 55 per cent of the
the shopping habits of the Poles. According to value from the first week of February 2020, to su-
Nielsen data, before the pandemic the Poles – as permarkets – at 51 per cent, to pharmacies – at
compared to other Europeans – were the most 52 per cent, to clothing shops – at 48 per cent, to
frequent shoppers (Ekspert Nielsena …, 2020). shopping centres – at 41 per cent, to restaurants
Discount stores alone were visited, on average, – at 36 per cent, to fast-food establishments – at
thirteen times a month. Due to the pandemic, 34 per cent and to coffee shops – at 31 per cent.
there was a fall in the number of visits to shops The best performers were do-it-yourself retail
and a rise in the average shopping basket size stores where traffic in the period covered by the
(Ekspert Nielsena…, 2020). In order to reduce the survey accounted for 83 per cent of that noted
risk of becoming infected with the coronavirus, in the first week of February. For comparison, in
the Poles more often visited shops alone, with- the case of cinemas it was merely 5 per cent,
out their partners or children. According to a sur- whereas for airports – 10 per cent of traffic from
vey conducted by Just Tag, in the week from 15 to the aforementioned week.
Changes in the labour market
The coronavirus pandemic has affected reduction in remuneration payable to employ-
the level of registered unemployment in Poland. ees by 20 per cent, accompanied by temporar-
As at the end of June 2020, district labour of- ily shortened working time, as introduced by
fices registered 1,027,100 unemployed persons the first anti-crisis shield. Surprisingly, data for
(Chart 6). It meant an increase on the corre- June showed an unexpectedly faster growth in
sponding period of the previous year by 150,000 wages in the non-financial corporations sector
persons and, as a consequence, the registered – by 2.6 per cent on the previous month and by
unemployment rate was 6.1 per cent. Unem- 3.6 per cent against June 2019.
ployment did not begin to rise until April when In the second half of March, there was
the number of registered persons went up by a significant rise in the number of persons em-
56,400 against March; it further grew by 45,900 ployed who (temporarily) did not perform work
in May and by 14,800 in June. March, a month of in the survey week. Such persons accounted for
decreases in most macroeconomic indicators, 19.0 per cent of the group of persons employed
was a period characterised by net outflows of surveyed by GUS (2020b). For comparison, in the
registered unemployed persons – in comparison first quarter of the previous year the respective
with February, the number of registered unem- share was an average of 5.2 per cent. Accord-
ployed persons then dropped by 10,500. ing to government estimates, for reasons di-
In the non-financial corporations sector, rectly related to the coronavirus, 13.7 per cent
comprising firms with more than 9 persons em- of the total number of persons employed did not
ployed, there was a decline in real gross wages perform their work. Such a temporary break in
by 3.6 per cent in April and by 2.8 per cent in May work performance usually resulted from inter-
relative to the previous months (Chart 7). Lower rupted operation of the business establishment
wages noted in the months in question proba- concerned (6.6 per cent of persons employed).
bly resulted from the possibility of a temporary The second most frequent reason for temporaryLosses in the real economy
27
non-performance of work was indicated as ‘oth- of children (4.6 per cent of the total number of
er reasons’, including the necessity to take care persons employed).
↘ Chart 6. Registered unemployment rate and the number of registered unemployed persons
in Poland
1200000 8
1000000
800000 7
600000
400000 6
200000
0 5
February 2020 March 2020 April 2020 May 2020 June 2020
Number of registered unemployed persons Unemployment rate (in per cent; right axis)
Source: prepared by the PEI on the basis of GUS (2020a) data.
↘ Chart 7. Average gross monthly wage in the non-financial corporations sector
(percentage change on the previous month)
4 2.8 2.6
3
2
1 0.3
0
-1
-2
-3 -2.8
-4 -3.6
-5
-6
-6.4
-7
-8
January 2020 February 2020 March 2020 April 2020 May 2020 June 2020
Source: prepared by the PEI on the basis of GUS (2020a) data.28 Losses in the real economy
At the same time, in the second half of cent of the total number of persons employed,
March as compared to the previous quarter and against 4.3 per cent in the previous quarter. As
to the corresponding quarter of the previous the direct reason for remote working, 71.8 per
year, there was a distinct rise in the percentage cent of such persons indicated the coronavirus-
of persons working from home. It was 14.2 per related situation.29
Enterprises locked down
– the survey findings
L
earning how Polish enterprises were inter alia, the abolition of the ban on citizen
undergoing the subsequent stages movement and travel. The last three measure-
of the freezing and unfreezing of the ments (waves four, five and six) covered the pe-
economy was the main goal of the survey car- riod from mid-May to early July. By then, most
ried out by the Polish Economic Institute and of the restrictions had already been relaxed or
the Polish Development Fund from early April lifted. For example, the conditions for the pur-
to early July 2020. In the period covered, six suit of commercial activities and the provision
measurements were performed to register, on of food- and beverage-serving services had
an ongoing basis, the situation of Polish en- been eased (e.g. by abolishing the limit on the
terprises at essential times of the pandemic number of persons), whereas activities of many
and of introducing and lifting particular lock- production firms, e.g. in the automotive indus-
down measures. It was a survey conducted on try, previously suspended, had been restored.
a representative sample of firms, selected us- The restrictions still in place (as at 17 July 2020)
ing the random and quota selection method concern the necessity of social distancing, the
and divided into four size groups. obligation to cover one’s mouth and nose in-
The first two survey waves were per- doors in public spaces and limited possibilities
formed by mid-April, i.e. when the majority of to travel abroad.
anti-epidemic restrictions were already in place Such significant changes in the conditions
and consumer activity was largely limited. The of the functioning of enterprises in the period
third survey wave, conducted in late April, al- from early April (1st survey wave) to early July
lowed to gain insights into business sentiment (6th wave) were reflected in the business percep-
and the situation of firms in the period of the tion of the effects of the pandemic as well of the
first symptoms of lifting lock-down measures. situation of firms.
The relaxation of restrictions then concerned,
The pandemic as perceived by Polish undertakings
The period of three months covered by not longer than until summer holidays (Chart 8).
the survey shows a radical change in the per- A total of 75 per cent of the respondents were
ception of the pandemic situation by Polish un- of the opinion that the period of recovery from
dertakings. In the first survey wave – performed the pandemic would not exceed one year.
in early April – 43 per cent of undertakings be- A mere 16 per cent of undertakings thought
lieved that the coronavirus pandemic would that the state of the pandemic would stay with
last from several weeks to several months, but us for years.30 Enterprises locked down – the survey findings
↘ Chart 8. Expected duration of the pandemic in early April (1st survey wave) and in early July
(6th survey wave) (in per cent)
45
39
40
35 32
30 31
30
23
25
20
16 16
15
9
10
4
5
0
Several Several months The whole More than Many years No answer
weeks (until summer year one year,
holidays) but not longer
than two years
1–3 April 1st wave 1–3 July 6th wave
Source: prepared by the PEI on the basis of surveys conducted in collaboration with the Polish Development Fund.
Those optimistic forecasts of the duration Unfreezing of the economy as seen
of the pandemic markedly weakened by early by undertakings
July. Although the survey question then asked At the end of May a slight majority (57 per
provided more options to the respondents cent) of the enterprises surveyed indicated that
than that asked in early April, the differences the lifting of most anti-epidemic restrictions had
in answers turned out to be so significant that not significantly changed their financial situation
it is possible to conclude that they reflected (Chart 9). At the same time, 31 per cent claimed
a changed way of thinking about the pandemic that the unfreezing of the economy in May had
rather than solely resulting from other answers improved their financial situation. These results
offered to the respondents. The percentage should be interpreted with regard to the level
of undertakings assessing that the pandemic of consumer confidence which in May was still
would be dealt with by the end of the year fell 30 per cent lower than in February, while in June
dramatically, from 75 per cent to 23 per cent. At 19 per cent lower (GUS, 2020c). The greatest
the same time, there was a rise in the share of relative improvement was declared by repre-
undertakings predicting that the pandemic was sentatives of medium-sized businesses (35 per
a long-lasting event and would stay with us for cent) and micro-enterprises (34 per cent). The
years – in early July such an opinion was shared improvement was the most evident in answers
by 31 per cent of firms, whereas in early April the given by firms from production and service in-
proportion dropped nearly by half – to 16 per dustries, whereas it was rarer in trade. Impor-
cent. tantly to trade activities, deterioration wasEnterprises locked down – the survey findings
31
indicated by ca. 10 per cent of the respondents ‘stock-piling’ shopping just after the outbreak of
against 27 per cent of those surveyed that saw the pandemic; along with the unfreezing of the
changes for the better. The pandemic, having economy, consumer sentiment became more
primarily affected the rules of the economic reserved (even if for the threat of unemploy-
game, has also changed consumer behaviour. ment). That, in turn, could drive down turnover
A significant share of the population engaged in for many commercial firms.
↘ Chart 9. Effects of the unfreezing of the economy on the financial situation of businesses
(findings from the 5th survey wave – late May 2020, in per cent)
Question: How has the unfreezing of subsequent economic sectors in May 2020 influenced
the financial situation of the company?
3 28 57 8 22
Total
3 31 49 10 4 3
Micro
5 23 66 5 2
Small
2 33 59 4 2
Medium-sized
4 18 60 12 2 4
Large
5 22 60 9 3
Trade
3 31 51 8 2 5
Production
2 28 59 6 22
Services
0 20 40 60 80 100
It has significantly improved It has improved It has remained unchanged
It has deteriorated It has significantly deteriorated No answer
Source: prepared by the PEI on the basis of surveys conducted in collaboration with the Polish Development Fund.
When business representatives were asked (10 per cent of indications), May 2021 (9 per cent)
about indicative dates of the recovery of the fi- and September 2020 (7 per cent) or November
nancial situation of their enterprises, almost one- and December 2020 (6 per cent each). The sense
fourth were unable to provide such an estimate, of having recovered the financial was the most
whereas nearly one-fifth responded that the finan- evident in replies provided by representatives of
cial situation of the company had already recov- large firms (44 per cent of indications), followed by
ered. It is worth noting that there was no answer representatives of small businesses (19 per cent),
suggesting that the company’s financial situation medium-sized undertakings (15 per cent) and
would never recover. The most probable dates micro-enterprises (10 per cent). Answers given by
of restoring the pre-pandemic financial stand- the respondents showed no clear differentiation in
ing were indicated as follows: October 2020 terms of industry (Chart 10).32 Enterprises locked down – the survey findings
↘ Chart 10. When do firms expect to recover their financial position? (findings from the 5th survey
wave – late May 2020, in per cent)
Question: When do you think your company will restore its pre-pandemic financial situation?
18 24 1 51 6
Total
10 25 3 58 4
Micro
19 23 1 52 5
Small
15 27 54 4
Medium-sized
44 18 22 16
Large
18 24 53 5
Trade
19 23 53 5
Production
17 24 53 6
Services
0 20 40 60 80 100
Our situation has recovered It is impossible to determine It will never happen
Within one year No answer
Distribution of answers ‘Within one year’ by month (in per cent):
12
10
10 9
8 7
6 6
6
4 3
2 2 2
2 1 1 1
0
Jun.20 Jul.20 Aug.20 Sep.20 Oct.20 Nov.20 Dec.20 Jan.21 Feb.21 Mar.21 Apr.21 May.21
Source: prepared by the PEI on the basis of surveys conducted in collaboration with the Polish Development
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