The Automotive Industry Electrification Revolution What the Future Holds? - INDUSTRY INSIGHT
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INDUSTRY INSIGHT The Automotive Industry Electrification Revolution What the Future Holds? www.ve-expo.com
TABLE OF CONTENTS The Automotive Industry Electrification Revolution 3 An Upward Trajectory 4 Spurs and Influences 8 Advances 10 Conclusion 11 Register for Vehicle Electrification Expo 13 Contact Information 14 www.ve-expo.com @VeExpo #VEX20 2
THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY ELECTRIFICATION REVOLUTION – WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS? There is a revolution going on in the automotive industry that goes beyond automation and electrification into the heart and guts of the machine. This revolution is not just about the purity of the environment, nor the stability of the climate, nor energy security and the solving of global tensions associated with diminishing industrial resources. This is a revolution about the electric powertrain itself and the triple crown of quality, efficiency and cost. Today, you can have any chemistry electric vehicle (EV) battery pack, as long as it is lithium-ion, almost. There are fuel cell vehicles, nickel-zinc, sodium-ion and lithium-sulfur systems, however, none are at lithium-ion’s commercialisation stage, yet. After all, it took lithium-ion 42 years from laboratory discovery to reach the market penetration it has today. THE BEST OPTION Electrically propelled vehicles should not only be environmentally and national-security friendly, but better than the alternatives in every way. Purchasing a PEV because one is not allowed to buy anything else, or because it is a purely ethical choice, is not good enough. Only the best is good enough and with the help of academics and engineers working to the same end and producing the end-customer’s preferred product, electricity will make the world go around, and power the vehicles that go around it. www.ve-expo.com @VeExpo #VEX20 3
AN UPWARD TRAJECTORY
Allied Market Research revealed that the global electric vehicle
market is projected to rise to $567,299.8 million by 2025 and
forecast to grow at a CGR of 22.3% to 2025. Of that, the Far East
would account for much of the market.
McKinsey’s 2017 Electric Vehicle Index had reported that global sales of new electric
vehicles exceeded a million units for the first time, and it was expected that they could
increase to 4.5 million units in 2020, or about 5% of the global light-vehicle market with
BEVs likely to account for 70% of EVs by 2030 and ICE vehicle sales set to fall from 2024.
Deloitte saw EV sales of two million in 2018 increasing to four million in 2020. Cost was a
disincentive in the past, but it now estimates that the market will reach a tipping point in
2022 when the cost of an all-electric vehicle is expected to be on a par with an
ICE-powered equivalent. LMC Automotive expects that 540,000 EVs will be sold across
the EU in 2020. Meanwhile Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicts that electric vehicles
will account for a fifth of vehicle sales in the UK by 2026.
Source: www.about.bnef.com
www.ve-expo.com @VeExpo #VEX20 4
Range anxiety is a concern, which is intimately connected to advances in battery technology and the location and frequency of charging stations. Charging infrastructure and EVs on the road are, on the face of it, a chicken and egg scenario with each dependent on the other for their expansion. However, initial hesitation has been overcome by government initiatives and legislation as much as business modelling and growing consumer confidence based on technological advances. The UK government has mandated that vehicle charge points are to be fitted in all new homes and is investing £70 million to create 3,000 new rapid charging points across the UK. André ten Bloemendal, Vice President, Europe, at ChargePoint, called it a step in the right direction for the EV industry but said more needs to be done regarding cross industry collaboration to make current charging stations more accessible for drivers. Bloemendal said: The answer to this is a fully interoperable, peer to peer roaming solution and charging stations that are designed with integrated contactless payments and ease of use in mind. A Department for Transport spokesperson emphasised that its £1.5bn Road to Zero programme and £400m promise of funding for e-charging proves it is serious about the infrastructure for electric cars. Luckily charging comes in different shapes and sizes including home and street charging, induction charging in the road and fast DC charging alongside what we can now call conventional charge stations. Inductive charging is an increasingly viable alternative to forecourt charge-points, especially for mass transit and within contained urban areas. However, systems can also be extended to domestic vehicles and trucks on the road. For example, Noam Electron is using DWPT (Dynamic wireless power transfer) technology to create pay-as-you-go ‘electric’ roads. www.ve-expo.com @VeExpo #VEX20 5
THE POWERTRAIN
The latest electric powertrain news includes Tata Motors’ unveiling of its ‘Ziptron’ electric
engine to be used in its new vehicles including the new Nexon EV e-SUV, which was
announced in December. Tata’s Ziptron-powered electric vehicles are due out in the
fourth quarter of this year. The Tata Ziptron engine has a high-voltage system featuring a
permanent magnet AC motor providing superior performance on demand. Its futureproof
lithium-ion battery chemistry is compatible with fast charging networks and the IP67
Battery pack is dust and water proof. The chilled liquid cool battery delivers peak
charging and the water-cooled power electronics architecture offers consistent
performance and long-lasting durability, says the company.
Meanwhile, Tesla is planning to start production of its Model S, including its recently
unveiled three-engine “Plaid” engine, in the Fall. The new Plaid drive is due to be fitted into
the Model S, Model X and the new Roadster 2, but not Model 3 or Y.
Source: www.tatamotors.com
www.ve-expo.com @VeExpo #VEX20 6
The 2020 Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas saw Nissan unveiling its twin motor,
all-electric, all-wheel-drive electric powertrain called e-4ORCE, which is expected to
appear on a forthcoming production version of the Ariya Concept SUV. Also at CES
2020, Kenworth and Dana announced that they are to collaborate on electric powertrain
development for medium-duty Kenworth battery-electric vehicles. Later this year Citroën
is planning to launch an all-new C4 Cactus with a fully electric powertrain option.
Source: www.mahle.com
Daren Mottershead, Sales & Marketing Manager, MAHLE, points out that MAHLE
Powertrain’s recently showcased Modular Hybrid Powertrain (MHP) is intended as a
low-cost 'engine + eMotor + gearbox' series and parallel hybrid solution providing OEMs
with a viable option for hybridising a range of vehicles across different sizes (and even
platforms) to ensure greater economies of scale. He said:
The MHP is a fully integrated unit which is compact enough
for installation in B-segment hatchbacks but can also be
uprated for higher output in larger saloons or mid-size SUVs.
www.ve-expo.com @VeExpo #VEX20 7
RESEARCH Among those academic bodies at the forefront of research is the University of Warwick’s WMG, which is home to the largest and most comprehensive academic group in the UK working on electric vehicle technology. We have co-ordinated teams working on batteries, motors, power electronics, control systems and vehicle integration. Our work covers both the fundamental understanding of these subjects and the industrialisation at scale. Our facilities include pilot lines for the study of manufacturing techniques for battery cells, modules and packs, and for electric motors, as well as a prototype vehicle workshop. We collaborate with OEM's in a wide range of industry sectors, including car, motorcycle, bus, motorsport, off-highway, aerospace and marine. David Greenwood Professor WMG - The University of Warwick www.ve-expo.com @VeExpo #VEX20 8
Sheffield University’s Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering announced
recently that it was to receive an award of £11 million to develop lithium-ion batteries with
longer lifespans and increased energy density from the Faraday Institute as part of a
wider research project: The FutureCat project, which is investigating the development of
lithium-ion batteries with longer lifespans and increased energy density and in particular
a co-ordinated approach to cathode chemistry design to deliver cathodes that hold more
charge, are better suited to withstand prolonged cycling and promote ion mobility, so
potentially increasing the range and acceleration of electric vehicles. Researchers are also
intent on improving cathode design to reduce dependency on cobalt.
Bath University’s Institute for Advanced Automotive Propulsion Systems (IAAPS) believes
that there is scope to optimise cathode materials and structures in Li-ion batteries to
improve energy density and reduce costs. Increasing the nickel and cobalt content is
thought to offer improved energy density but is costly. It also regards electrically-assisted
turbochargers as promising because they can improve transient response without any
parasitic losses to the engine and provide energy recovery to increase overall system
efficiency. Its findings also suggest that a motorgenerator electric turbocharging system,
can help reduce engine response time by up to 90% and improve thermal efficiency while
generating up to 1kWh of energy.
Source: www.bath.ac.uk
www.ve-expo.com @VeExpo #VEX20 9SPURS AND INFLUENCES Our experts share some insights into the future: Matt Boyle, Challenge Director, Driving the Electric Revolution Challenge, at UK Research and Innovation believes that the evolution of electric powertrains really depends on the sector: Automotive is the second earliest adopter behind Off Highway, Aerospace increasing the pace of innovation. Rail and Marine are plotting a different parallel course. If we stick to automotive we’ve gone through mild hybrids (48V stop/start) and are now looking seriously at higher powers enabled by the battery technology. In order to get a sensibly sized system you need to increase the voltage quite substantially. This is driven partly by the power electronics, which you have to leap from 120V to 600V, as efficient power devices don’t exist in the intervening space. It’s not sensible from a safety, efficiency perspective to go much higher than 800V in auto applications. He said: “The motors have moved from AC Induction, through Permanent Magnet (PMAC) to Switched Reluctance (SR) technologies. I believe that PMAC and SR technologies will remain the motors of choice for the foreseeable future AC Induction still has a place but it’s power density, cost and weight rule out further expansion in Auto.” www.ve-expo.com @VeExpo #VEX20 10
Alex Tylee-Birdsall, Director and Co-founder Drive System Design, who is on the advisory board of Vehicle Electrification Expo, regards efficiency as an important focus going forward, especially in getting the most range out of batteries. “There will be some gradual improvements to motor and power electronics technology. However, the largest change may be dependant on whether multiple speed transmission get employed in main stream vehicles. There is a clear efficiency case for multiple speed transmissions (as there is for ICE vehicles). The question is whether the cost of adding speeds can be justified. This may only be acceptable if the cost of batteries reduces.” The other key influence, as he sees it, will be the advent of autonomous and / or connected vehicles. “Both of these will influence how powertrains are designed in the future. For example, in an autonomous vehicle the requirement for high performance diminishes and powertrain sizes can be reduced. Connected vehicles can make use of prognostics systems (to predict, rather than merely detect potential failures. This could be used to change driver habits, determine servicing periods and allow engineers to design for less severe load cases.” www.ve-expo.com @VeExpo #VEX20 11
Professor David Greenwood, Advanced Propulsion Systems, WMG, International Automotive Research Centre at the University of Warwick (another Advisory Board member), believes that although there are advances across the industry, the battery is the key component to all of these systems as it dictates the cost, range, recharging time, performance, handling and practicality of the vehicle. “Our work focuses on making batteries cheaper, more durable, more energy dense and more power dense. “We are doing this by gaining a fundamental understanding of how they work and how they are made - and with this knowledge we can optimise materials, designs and manufacturing processes to give significant improvements in the end product.” Electrification of cars is not a new idea - in fact electric cars outsold petrol cars in the first decades of ‘motoring’ before combustion engines established themselves as the dominant technology. Recently though increased societal pressures on air quality, climate change and energy security, combined with technical advances in batteries and electric drives mean that electrification could be ‘back in the driving seat. He continued: “We have electric vehicle technologies around us today which can deliver a great driving experience and hundreds of miles of range. The cost of the vehicles, though, and the relative lack of infrastructure mean that they aren’t yet the answer for everyone, so market share is in single digits of percent. As the industry grows, technology continues to improve, and infrastructure rolls out, that percentage will rise, and could become the dominant passenger car powertrain by the mid 2030s.” www.ve-expo.com @VeExpo #VEX20 12
Mottershead at MAHLE, explains, “Pure battery electric cars (EVs) are becoming more wide-spread as the likes of VW (ID3 family) and Tesla (Model 3) launch their new 'low cost' models. But they are spending huge amounts on marketing to try to influence consumers and these cars still only make sense for certain drivers depending on their usage cycles and their access to charging points. Whole life cycle CO2 is now a recognised major concern within the industry, as the 'embedded' CO2 in batteries (the amount generated during their production) often outweighs the benefits in use. Equally, the CO2 emissions from gas and oil fired power stations means that EV usage is not as eco-friendly as many seem to believe. Battery prices are (slowly) reducing as production volumes go up, but it remains difficult for most consumers to make a case for EVs on a total cost of ownership basis. The growth in EVs sales is therefore likely to lag way behind the rates which some OEMs are expecting (or hoping for).” Tylee-Birdsall says he can see a big after market for retrofitting in the next 10 years or so. “I think we will see a number of standard powertrains made available from OEM’s for aftermarket fit. The key issue with this will be packaging the batteries. Most EV’s have the “skateboard” chassis arrangement to allow the batteries to fit under the vehicle. In order to get a decent range there will need to be good solutions to battery packaging as the fuel tank space is unlikely to be enough.” www.ve-expo.com @VeExpo #VEX20 13
In-wheel motors are also gaining support, but there are downsides such as space implying
restriction on power and the necessity to have at least two in-wheel motors meaning
higher cost than a single engine vehicle. The space for ESC and regenerative braking are
also considerations. However, In-wheel-powered vehicles can be designed differently,
which could open up new possibilities.
“I am not a strong believer in in-wheel motors,” says
Tylee-Birdsall. “Increasing the weight in the wheel
cannot be a good thing. There are also thermal and
capacity issue to overcome having the motor in the
wheel. I think in-board motors are the best option. This
can still be one per wheel.”
Source: www.proteanelectric.com
The powertrain represents about 32% of the overall weight of an electric vehicle, so if that
can be made lighter the size of battery and motor can be reduced as well, which in turn
reduces vehicle weight further. So, light steel, composites and metamaterials can be used.
Although Tylee-Birdsall doesn’t believe EV’s need to be lighter than conventional vehicles,
most of the weight will come from batteries: “Lower cost composite vehicle structures are
probably needed to offset this.”
www.ve-expo.com @VeExpo #VEX20 14ADVANCES
Electrification of the powertrain has been progressing in earnest
ever since the 1973 oil crisis with various spurs, such as energy
security, climate concerns and the momentum of the technology
itself. But when and how will the push of technology
increasingly/better meet the pull of public demand including
inevitable changes in that demand?
“Using fear to drive the electric market demand is not a stable proposition. The small
leaps made during the energy crisis or when concerns on climate change peak are not
enough. People will normally default quickly back to where they are comfortable,”
says Tylee-Birdhall.
Customer pull in technology products comes from two
mains sources: acceptable performance, real personal
benefits and how ‘cool’ it is. In this modern age of
personal ‘tech’ some brands and devices are almost
seen as a religion. They are must haves. In the EV market
this has very much been driven by Tesla. Almost
single-handedly, Elon Musk has made electric cars cool.
www.teslarati.com
www.ve-expo.com @VeExpo #VEX20 15“There are practical issues that the car manufacturers cannot influence. Issues such as time taken to charge and poor cold weather performance will all derate the customer experience. Over time, and with the help of early adopters this issue will get resolved or customers will learn to live with them. For example, in the days of Nokia phones I probably charged my phone once every three days. With smart phones I have to charge it at least every day. I never changed the battery in my old analogue watch but I charge my smart watch every day. However, both these devices give me benefits the old ones did not. People will adjust if the technology benefits are worth it to them.” We need to keep electric vehicles desirable and ensure any inconvenience is overtaken by an increase in benefits. A major benefit for electric cars for many people will be they can be charged at home. Technology is required to make this easier. A major change in demand may come from autonomous car changing the vehicle ownership model towards more car sharing / ride hailing. Mottishead believes the constant stop/go over the five decades has been exaggerated, until quite recently, by the suboptimum performance of the battery: “This is now being addressed quite quickly. The innovation in the entire drivetrain, from Power Source to Software, from new semiconductors to Vehicle integration is accelerating. Choice, technology paths are still quite bewildering for most traditional supplier into Auto. This will change as some technologies, wide band gap for instance, really get going. Building the supply chains is essential over the coming decade if we are to exploit our development of product IP into manufactured products. “Powertrain and vehicle electronics are becoming ever more complex, sophisticated, powerful and yet smaller, lighter and, in some cases, lower cost. The continuing integration of multiple systems within a vehicle and the simultaneous control of all those systems, in real time, whilst responding equally to the drivers' demands and the immediate environment and always maintaining efficiency, legal compliance and safety, represents a huge challenge to the automotive industry.” www.ve-expo.com @VeExpo #VEX20 16
THE FUTURE
We need to keep electric vehicles desirable and ensure any inconvenience is overtaken by
an increase in benefits. A major benefit for electric cars for many people will be they can
be charged at home. Technology is required to make this easier. A major change in
demand may come from autonomous car changing the vehicle ownership model towards
more car sharing / ride hailing.
Mottershead predicts that sales of hybridised or electrified cars will continue to grow very
strongly, in particular 48V mild hybrids (MHEVs). “Such vehicles still utilise IC engines as
the prime mover and, as such, are familiar, practical and convenient for consumers. They
offer improving fuel economy and reasonable running costs as well as lower CO2 and
regulated emissions. Total ownership costs, especially for high mileage drivers, are still
very attractive compared to full battery EVs. Both gasoline and diesel MHEVs remain
attractive propositions for most users and new technologies are allowing the OEMs to
meet the latest emissions regulations (e.g. EU6d, WLTP and RDE). Plug-in hybrids
(PHEVs) are proving challenging for most OEMs as the combined costs of a high voltage
battery, an IC engine and a complex dual mode transmission pushes the retail price to
levels where sales volumes will remain low.”
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www.ve-expo.com @VeExpo #VEX20 17CONCLUSION At the heart of this revolution is communication and innovation, the Vehicle Electrification Expo is the event that will bring together all the elements of electric powertrain technology and fashion them into a coherently defined new sector greater than the sum of its parts. Greenwood points out that the industry is moving quickly - with both technical and commercial advances being announced on a monthly basis: “It is important for companies to stay informed and to form partnerships which will help them get to market with the right product at minimum cost and risk. Conferences like Vehicle Electrification Expo are a great way to do that.” The Midlands region of the UK has become one of the nuclei for electric powertrain innovation, says Tylee-Birdsall. “The role of this expo and conference is to bring these inventive companies together to share ideas and initiate new collaborations that will drive the technology forward.” Matt Boyle, Challenge Director, Driving the Electric Revolution Challenge, at UK Research and Innovation, agrees. He says that, in a nutshell, the expo and conference will enable collaboration, communication and sharing of ideas and solutions: “To some extent the developers of these technologies are still siloed. The role of the conference and expo should be to help bring people together who have the same challenges and potentially equally applicable solutions across sectors.” Mottishead believes the event will bring together a broad spectrum of stakeholders to discuss and debate the trends, technologies and challenges of the whole vehicle electrification process. “There are so many interconnected factors in play (such as technical, economic, political, environmental) that it is almost impossible to predict where the industry will be in 10 years’ time and which approaches will eventually prove to be successful for the OEMs. The Expo will provide a platform for those with the most convincing arguments to try to persuade the rest of us that their theories and predictions will prove to be the most accurate.” www.ve-expo.com @VeExpo #VEX20 18
REGISTER FOR VEHICLE ELECTRIFICATION EXPO To register for the Vehicle Electrification Expo (8th and 9th July 2020) visit: www.ve-expo.com/register www.ve-expo.com @VeExpo #VEX20 19
CONTACT INFORMATION
Alex Oliver | Event Director
+44 (0)1273 286399 | alex.oliver@event-partners.org
Lana Fowler | Exhibition Manager
+44 (0)1273 286362 | lana.fowler@event-partners.org
Bianca Fogah | Marketing Manager
+44 (0)1273 789567 | bianca.fogah@event-partners.org
Olivia Ryan-Hill | Conference Director
+971 (0)55638 0646 | olivia.ryan-hill@event-partners.org
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